Climate Impacts on Energy Systems

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Climate Impacts on Energy Systems A WORLD BANK STUDY Climate Impacts on Energy Systems KEY ISSUES FOR ENERGY SECTOR ADAPTATION Jane Ebinger, Walter Vergara WORLD BANK STUDY Climate Impacts on Energy Systems Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation Jane Ebinger Walter Vergara Copyright © 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org 1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11 World Bank and ESMAP Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the de- velopment community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally-edited texts. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. This volume is a product of the staě of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and ESMAP. The ę nd- ings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reĚ ect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. They are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be aĴ ributed in any manner to the World Bank, or its aĜ liated organizations, or to members of its board of executive directors for the countries they represent, or to ESMAP. The World Bank and ESMAP do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, de- nominations, other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status or any territory or the endorsement of acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmiĴ ing portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruc- tion and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Of- ę ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-8697-2 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8698-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8697-2 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested Contents Preface ....................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................ix Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... xiii Acronyms and Abbreviations .......................................................................................... xxxiii World Bank Countries and Regions .............................................................................. xxxvii 1. Overview .................................................................................................................................. 1 Climate Trends and Impacts on Energy Systems ........................................................... 1 Addressing Climate Vulnerability .................................................................................... 3 Structure of This Report ..................................................................................................... 5 2. Observed and Expected Climate Change .......................................................................... 7 Climatic Impacts on Energy Services ............................................................................... 7 Recent Observed Climate Change .................................................................................... 9 Expected Climate Change ................................................................................................ 13 Extreme Weather Events ................................................................................................... 20 Summary Tables ................................................................................................................ 21 3. Climate Impacts on Energy ................................................................................................ 26 Impacts on Resource Endowment .................................................................................. 26 Impacts on Energy Supply ............................................................................................... 30 Energy Transmission, Distribution, and Transfer ........................................................ 35 Energy Demand ................................................................................................................. 37 Impacts on Design and Operations ................................................................................ 41 Cross-sector Considerations ............................................................................................ 42 Indicators of Energy Sector Vulnerability...................................................................... 44 Summary Table .................................................................................................................. 47 4. Emerging Adaptation Practices ......................................................................................... 52 Typology of Adaptation Responses ................................................................................ 52 Building Adaptive Capacity............................................................................................. 55 Delivering Adaptation Actions ........................................................................................ 58 Adaptation Agents ............................................................................................................ 69 Summary Remarks ............................................................................................................ 71 5. Weather and Climate Information .................................................................................... 73 Information Requirements for Decision Makers .......................................................... 73 Hydro-meteorological Parameters Relevant to Energy ............................................... 75 Information Limitations and Impediments ................................................................... 78 iii iv Contents Interpreting Information: Tools and Process Gaps ...................................................... 81 Capacity to Use Weather and Climate Information ..................................................... 81 6. Climate Resilience ............................................................................................................... 84 Awareness versus Knowledge ......................................................................................... 85 Decision Making under Uncertainty .............................................................................. 86 Mainstreaming Climate Risk Management into Energy Planning ............................ 93 7. Near-term Actions to Support Adaptation ...................................................................... 97 Climate Information Networks ....................................................................................... 99 Glossary ................................................................................................................................... 101 References ................................................................................................................................ 105 Appendixes .............................................................................................................................. 125 Appendix A. IPCC Emissions Scenarios and Conę dence Levels ............................. 127 Appendix B. Re-analyses and General Circulation Models ...................................... 131 Appendix C. Observed Trends in Precipitation and Sea Level Change.................. 137 Appendix D. Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Diě erent Regions ...................................................................................................................... 140 Appendix E. Icing and Hail ........................................................................................... 143 Appendix F. Electric Utilities Adapt Their Practices to Respond to Natural Disasters .................................................................................................................... 144 Appendix G. Locally Tailored Adaptation Options: An Example ........................... 147 Appendix H. Adapting to Climate Change on Mexico’s Gulf Coast ....................... 154 Appendix I. Case Study: Regulation for the Aviation Industry ............................... 168 Appendix J. Access to Predictions................................................................................. 169 Appendix K. Frameworks, Methodologies
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