IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI Armenia |Civil society |DemocracyEnergy |Russia |European Union in EU-Russia relations. and Russia isinthemaking, exacerbating theongoing clash policy priorities, but a value systemclashbetweenArmenia and immediate U-turn inArmenia’s domestic andforeign The current demonstrations may notcause abreakthrough youth movements raisetheirvoice inBaghramyan Avenue. New forms of active citizenship areemerginginArmenia, as is mature enough tostandup indefence of democratic values. down. Thisnotwithstanding aburgeoning civil society, which Armenia’s governance style hasbecome increasingly top on theKremlin. In order toaccommodate Russian interests, Armenia’s full-fledged political andeconomic dependence this alliance tosecurity issues, but usedthealliance toensure forced into amilitary alliance with Russia. Moscow didnotlimit to theunresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Yerevan was than economics. Because of the security concerns related protests inYerevan. But thereismore to“Electric Armenia” deteriorating economic circumstances have triggered mass Armenia’s electricity price hike andmore broadly its ABSTRACT by Nona Mikhelidze Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope #ElectricYerevan: keywords IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 2 Weekly Digest * 3 2 1 For Armenia, with one-third of thepopulation living inpoverty, UES, headedbyIgor Sechin,aclose ally of Putin. theRussian President Vladimir Electric Network of Armenia (ENA), a subsidiary of the Russian company Inter RAO The request for aprice increase,thethirdinless thantwo years, camefrom the are shouting: “No totheft!” Gyumri, Vanadzor, Ashtarak, Sisian, Alaverdi, Kapan, Spitak andelsewhere. People Armenians (mostly youth) areprotesting inthecapital city of Yerevan. But also in a demandtoreverse thelatest decision toincreaseelectricity prices, thousandsof “Free andindependent Armenia. We arethedecision makers.” With thisslogan and Introduction by Nona Mikhelidze* Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope #ElectricYerevan: #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope . company isjustified. determines whether theplannedprice increasebytheRussian-owned electricity would take upon itself the“burdenof theincreasedprices” until anindependent audit consequence, on June 27,Armenian President SerzhSargsyansaidhisgovernment demonstrators with water hosesandarrested250people (later released). As a Local police responded totheprotests with repression. Theydispersedthe unsd/mdg/Data.aspx. June 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/27098665.html. 2015, June mean passingtheburdenfrom ratepayers totaxpayers. ENA. However, thedemonstrators dismissedtheproposal sinceit would simply Russian-Armenian commission inorder toinvestigate thefinancial situation of Paper prepared for the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), July2015. (IAI), Internazionali Affari Istituto for the prepared Paper Nona Mikhelidze is senior fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). Internazionali Affari fellow Istituto at the senior is Mikhelidze Nona

EurasiaNet’s EurasiaNet’s in Regions”, the in Protests Powers ElectricYerevan “Armenia: Grigoryan, Marianna Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Europe/Radio Free Radio in to Disperse”, Warning Police Defy Protesters “Armenian See the United website: Millennium Nations the IndicatorsSee Goals Development , 2 July 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/74116. , 2July 2015, 3 He proposed furthertoestablishanintergovernmental 1 , http://mdgs.un.org/ , 2 it isahardhit. , 28 , 28 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 3 id=3331. Digest 5 4 of thestructural differences betweenthetwo. into theEEUwould inevitably cause enormous problems totheeconomy because made despite thefactthat Armenian authorities declaredthat Armenia’s entrance favour of joining theEurasian Economic Union (EEU)instead.Thedecision was to renouncesigning theAssociation Agreement with theEuropean Union (EU)in PutinRussian forced President Vladimir hisArmenian counterpart SerzhSargsyan turned into Russia’s post-Soviet colony. Aclear manifestation of thiswaswhen Republics, becameaNewly Independent State. Yet inthelasttwo decades,it has After thedissolution of theSoviet Union, Armenia, like otherSoviet Socialist driving forces of theprotests. particular, theasymmetric relation betweenthetwo hasturnedtobeone of the policy andits double standardsintheSouth Caucasus ismounting inYerevan. In manifestation of agrowing youth movement inArmenia. Discontent with Russian of mass dissatisfaction with the country’s political system and are only the latest While theprice increasesaretriggering protests, theyalso represent anundercurrent 1. Thecauses anddriving factors of theArmenian protests of themthepresident. Barometer, in201365percent of Armenians distrusttheirparliament and57percent policy andpartly toits foreign policy choices. According toapoll of theCaucasus people’s dissatisfaction hasdeeproots. It ispartly related tothegovernment’s social Resolving theissue will beachallenging taskfor thenational authorities. The #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope 6 protestors_and_police_in_armenia_en.pdf. armenia/documents/news/20150623_local_eu_statement_on_recent_clashes_between_ and in police the Republic of Armenia rewarded for this“choice.” Quite thecontrary. difficult negotiations with the EUin favour ofthe EEU. However, Armeniawasnot revolution? How will Russia reactandwhat isatake-away for theEU? driving factors intheArmenian unrest?Is thepost-Soviet spacewitnessing another Europe/Radio Liberty Europe/Radio and civil society. events andtheEuropean Union (EU)called for adialogue betweenstate authorities Within thiscontext, Russia declaredit waskeeping aclose eye on theArmenian them. and signalling that important decisions about theirfuture cannotbetaken without civil society exists;it isdeveloping andvibrant. Theyouth movement isgrowing

Local EU Statement on recent clashes between protestors protestors between clashes Statement EU on recent Local to Armenia, Union Delegation European Radio Free Free bloc”, Radio in into Russian entry to hurdle Armenian another cites “PM Danielyan, Emil Caucasus Analytical Analytical in Caucasus Institutions”, Political Different towards of Trust Poll: Level “Opinion , No. 74 (30 June 2015), p. 5-6, http://www.css.ethz.ch/publications/DetailansichtPubDB?rec_ , No. 74 5-6, p. June 2015), (30 5 , 4 February 2013, http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/24892837.html. Thequestions that emergeare:what arethecauses andmain 4 Yet theprotests reveal anotherimportant fact:Armenian , Yerevan, 23 June 2015, http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/ June 2015, 23 , Yerevan, 6 Yerevan sacrificed four years of IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 4 and Armenia, thesupplier didnotchangeits decision. (EBRD), theENA offers poor services andfrequent power cuts. issued toENA in2009bytheEuropean Bankfor Reconstruction andDevelopment Armenians’ huge spendingon electricity and a 10-year 45-million dollars loan Radio Liberty Radio России по частям по России 24 June 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/74006. 2015, June 24 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 Russia.” Over theyears, “all Armenian presidents have soldtheircountry piece bypiece to paid byconsumers inUkraine.” fees inthepost-Soviet space,andhouseholdgasprices exceed even thecosts and ‘brotherhood’ narratives, Armenian households pay the highest electricity According toan Armenian political scientist, despite “the‘strategic partnership’ #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope the firstquarter of 2015,compared to60million inthefirstquarter of2014. revealed that the company’s earningsfrom Armenia were104million dollars for Gazprom. the Hrazdan thermal power plant. Thislatter hasbeenexpandedbytheRussian plant (producing about 40percent of theelectricity generated inArmenia) and revenues is largely non-transparent. The ENA operates also the Metsamor nuclear Transparency International has confirmed that the company’s management of the ENA, including unjustified spending on luxury housesandcars. mass mediatalk about thenumerous financial abusesbysenior managers of the 1news.az source toRussian gasinArmenia. control over theArmenian section of anIranian gaspipeline, theonly alternative network. railway network aswell assignificant parts of the Armenian telecommunications to 270dollars per1000cubic meters. Russians). In 2013,thecompany increasedgastariffs for Armenians raisingthem the gassector. Gazprom istheonly supplier of gastoGazprom Armenia (owned by 2015, http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_armenia_approaching_the_precipice. 2015, id=2627. http://www.css.ethz.ch/publications/DetailansichtPubDB?rec_ 23-26, (17No. p. July 53-54 2013), Quarter of 2015 Quarter

Ibid.

Radio Free Europe/ Free in Radio protest”, power Armenian of at heart ‘profiteering’ “Russian Ron Synovitz, Ron Synovitz, “Russian ‘profiteering’ at heart of Armenian power protest”, cit. protest”, power Armenian of at heart ‘profiteering’ “Russian Ron Synovitz, Inter RAO UES, I UES, Inter RAO Ron Synovitz, “Russian ‘profiteering’ at heart of Armenian power protest”, cit. protest”, power Armenian of at heart ‘profiteering’ “Russian Ron Synovitz, Tamada Tales Tamada in for Russia?”, Risky Yerevan Protest the “Is Lomsadze, Giorgi David Hovhannisyan, “100 Days: The Foreign Policy Dimension”, Caucasus in Policy Foreign Analytical The Days: Digest “100 Hovhannisyan, David Amanda Paul interview with Elena Ostapenko, “ Ostapenko, Elena with Paul interview Amanda ECFR Commentaries precipice”, ECFR the in approaching “Armenia: Giragosian, Richard , 3 July 2015, http://www.1news.az/interview/20150703011222796.html. , 3July 2015, 12 Beyond electricity, Armenia is completely dependent on Russia also in 11 , 24 June 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/27091644.html. June 2015, , 24 , 28 May 2015, https://www.interrao.ru/en/news/company/?ELEMENT_ID=4503. 2015, May , 28 ” (All Armenian Presidents have sold their country piece by piece to Russia), in in to Russia), piece by piece country their sold have Presidents Armenian ” (All nter RAO Group Announced Consolidated IFRS Financial Results for the First for the Results First Financial IFRS nter Announced Group Consolidated RAO 7 In fact,areport published byInter RAO UESitself 15 13 Furthermore, Moscow controls theArmenian Despite lengthy negotiations betweenRussia Все президенты Армении отдавали свою страну страну свою отдавали Армении президенты Все 14 OnJune 2015,Gazprom took 9 Furthermore, local | EurasiaNet blog, blog, |EurasiaNet 10 In addition, , 26 June , 26 8 Despite , IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 5 such asituation theydo nothave aprospective,” declaredtheanalyst. Youth arethemostsensitive part of thesociety; theywerefirsttorealise that in socio-economic situation. “It was clear that it would have caused a public reaction. States). Bringing Armenia’s economy closer toRussia’s worsened thecountry’s Armenia’s traderelations with othereconomic partners(especially EUMember EEU membersRussia, KazakhstanandBelarus.Thishassurely affected negatively is because Armenia hadtoraiseimport andexport tariffstomatch those of fellow interpressnews.ge/ge/interviu/336241-. Union], Interpressnews Economic in Eurasian the joined and fools like Russia trusted Armenians [We, Gavtsevriandith” Kavshirshi Evraziul da Moskovs Resources/334934-1288990760745/MigrationandDevelopmentBrief24.pdf. Briefs Development and Migration in Outlook”, and Developments Recent Remittances: and “Migration vertical corruption, does notwork anymore.” Soviet systeminArmenia, which byitself represents theRussian-style systemof system aswell asinRussian enterprises. And now all understandthat “thepost- suffering from thecorruption of oligarchs entrenched inthenational political that theprice increases aredue tocorruption. Many demonstrators say theyare 29 June 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/74071. 2015, June 29 21 20 19 18 17 16 a 15percent drop invalue andtheeconomy haswitnessed asharpdecline. has caused problems also for Armenia. Thelocal currency, thedram oil prices andwesternsanctions on Russia, the recession intheRussian economy on Russia and its currencyistied totheRussian rouble. Because of thedrop in In addition to electricity and gas dependence, Armenia is economically dependent with the“civilised world.” the country from European values andcreating enormous challenges inrelations over thoseof thepeople. Theybelieve that bydoing soofficials arefurtherdetaching supporting thebusinessinterests of Russian state-owned companies inArmenia Some local political analysts accuse the government of President Sargsyanof #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope lives-on-in-armenia-392052.html. 2015, http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/armine-sahakyan-russias-colonialist-mentality- corrupted system”, Aravot.am in corrupted the 2015. Indeed Armenian remittances are down by some 40 percent sincethe start of home remittances aresuffering from thecurrent Russian economic difficulties. Furthermore, Armenian emigrants working intheRussian Federation andsending production andtradevolume andafall inforeign directinvestments (FDI). the Eurasian Economic Union, the country witnessed a 15-20 percent drop in Armenian labourforce. According toStepanGrigoryan, afterArmenia entered

Ibid.

EurasiaNet’s Weekly Digest EurasiaNet’s in Change?”, Bring Protests the Can “Armenia: Grigoryan, Marianna David Shanazaryan, “The RA government authorities defended the interests of the Russian Russian of the interests the defended authorities government RA “The Shanazaryan, David Richard Giragosian, “Armenia: approaching the precipice”, cit. See also World Bank, World also Bank, See precipice”, the cit. approaching “Armenia: Giragosian, Richard Armine Sahakyan, “Russia’s colonialist mentality lives on in Armenia”, in KyivPost in Armenia”, on in lives mentality colonialist “Russia’s Sahakyan, Armine Stepan Grigoryan interview with Koba Bendeliani, “Somkhebma sulelebivith davujereth davujereth sulelebivith “Somkhebma Bendeliani, Koba with interview Grigoryan Stepan 19 Thus, theRussian market hasturnedout tobeless attractive for the , No. 24 (13 April 2015), http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/ 2015), April (13 , No. 24 16 Similarly, theprotesters on Baghramyan Avenue believe , 24 June 2015, http://en.aravot.am/2015/06/24/170765. 17 , 26 June 2015, http://www. June 2015, , 26 , hassuffered 21 , 26 June , 26 20 This 18 ,

IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 6 Radio Liberty Radio 22 for anideological war,at theArmy 2015forum, Russian Defence MinisterSergei be easily arrangedasRussia hasamilitary baseintheArmenian city of Gyumri. As abroad,” Putin islikely touseall its soft andhardpower resources. Thelatter can possibilities intheircountry. In order toprevent anotherUkraineinRussia’s “near peaceful protest intheregion, inviting ordinary Russians toreflect on similar government. This would beyet another precedent of aregimechangethrough The Kremlin’s greatest fear isanewEuromaidan andanoverthrow of theArmenian 2. Russia keeping aclose eye on Armenia mature enough tostandup indefence of democratic values. increasingly top down inareality where thenewgeneration of civil society is Russian interests, the governance style of the Armenian authorities has become political andeconomic dependenceon theKremlin. In order toaccommodate did notlimit thisalliance tomilitary issues, rather it usedit toentrench Yerevan’s Yerevan wasforced toopt for amilitary alliance with Russia. Unfortunately Moscow of thesecurity concerns related totheunresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in Russia. However, there is more to “Electric Armenia” than economics. Because the country due tothecorrupt political systemaswell astheeconomic recession electricity prices andmore broadly thedeteriorating economic circumstances in Summing up, theimmediate cause of theprotests inArmenia wastheincreaseof acquire carte blanche.” negotiate with himsuccessfully) become, obviously, thelead candidates and/or politicians toRussia. “Thosewho aregranted ameetingwith the‘tsar’(andprobably The bestevidenceof thispractice isthepre-or post-electoral visits of Armenian to high level government postscanoccuronly afterreceiving Moscow’s blessing. perception among thesociety isthat any kindof power changeor appointment Last, but bynomeans least, isArmenia’s political dependenceon theKremlin. The Investigative Committee of Armenia. yet inview of the protests Moscow decidedtotransfer thecriminal casetothe military baseislocated). Initially, theKremlin refusedtolet Yerevan trythesolder, seven membersof anArmenian family inGyumri(thecity where theRussian eminent arms supplier for Baku. Second, on January 2015aRussian soldier killed (with whom Armenia hasaconflict over Nagorno-Karabakh) becoming thepre- Russia. First, in the summer of 2013 Moscow signed an arms deal with Azerbaijan There have beentwo otherdevelopments causing Armenian dissatisfaction with #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope 23 id=2627. 27-31, (17No. p. July 53-54 2013), http://www.css.ethz.ch/publications/DetailansichtPubDB?rec_ Caucasus in European?”, Analytical Become Digest and Russia, with Its Ties Autocracy, Deepen

Mikhayel Hovhannisyan, “Armenia and Europe: Can a Country Simultaneously Strengthen Strengthen Simultaneously aCountry Can Europe: and “Armenia Hovhannisyan, Mikhayel Radio Free Europe/ Free Radio in Court”, Russian By Reportedly Armenia, In Will Tried Be Soldier “Russian , 13 July 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/26803699.html. 2015, July 13 , 23 22 , IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 7 2015, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/524619.html. 2015, 2015, http://izvestia.ru/news/588103. 2015, Izvestia in country], out of the ambassador US the to send authorities Armenian advised 26 25 24 by anexternal headquartersrunbythesamepolitical technologists that ranKyiv’s many fighters from Ukraineamong thedemonstrators andtheyarebeingmanaged with theEUandits joining theEurasian Economic Union […]Most likely thereare expected asareaction toits rejection of asemi-colonial Association Agreement West for ordering massprotests inthe South Caucasus. “Thisattack on Yerevan was Russian political analysts sharetheofficial narrative andarequick toblamethe – byorganising violent coups. believes theUStries toalienate Russia from its close allies –Armenia andBelarus The first deputy head of the State Duma Committee on Nationalities Valery Rashkin grants from theUnited States.” “incited bysome nongovernmental organisations [...]mostof which live off of was actively promoting theideathat theorganisers of theprotests inYerevan are the USispreparinganotherillegal coup inArmenia. ARussian newsprogramme dramatic developments cannotbeexcluded. TheKremlin already declaredthat West isorchestrating therevolt inthestreetsof Yerevan (andthenmaybe inMoscow) neighbourhood byall meansat its disposal. And once it convinces itself that the Thus the Kremlin ispreparing to avoid “colour revolutions” at home andinthe the bloody secretservices of theCommunist regime)on Lubyanskaya Ploshchad. restoring themonument toFelix Dzerzhinsky(thefounder andheadof theCheka– Putin callingwith President Vladimir for areferendum tobeheldinMoscow on peaceful, progressive movement of the country,” Shoigu stated. Thiscoincided so that theymove intheright direction; one that will provide for thecontinued 1993 […] We must understand how to prevent that and how to educate our youth society.” “We do nothave theright torepeat thecollapses that occurredin1991and Shoigu saidhisministryplansto commission research on “colour revolutions and #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope 29 28 27 in Yerevan. Nuland’s February 2015visit toArmenia could beconnected tothecurrent events Affairs, Alexander Babakov, suggested that US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria June http://youtu.be/c54Sz4sMUzQ. 2015, Council Committee on International Affairs. opinion againstRussia, argued Konstantin Kosachev, theheadof theFederation Sargsyan. the demonstrators arerather aggressive andrefusedialogue with President Serzh

Ibid. Ibid. Ibid.

Tatiana Baykova, “ Baykova, Tatiana See the programme “ programme the See The Moscow Times Moscow The in Dissent”, to Battle Preparing Top Brass “Russia’s Golts, Alexander 26 28 With USassistance,local NGOs are tryingtomobilise Armenian public Депутаты советуют властям Армении выслать посла США из страны из США посла выслать Армении властям советуют Депутаты Вести в Вести Russia-1 Channel Russia-1 at 20:00), in (News 20:00” 27 25 Member of theDumaCommittee for International Furthermore, according tothesameprogramme, 29 (formerly RTR Vesti), (formerly 23 RTR ” [Deputies ” [Deputies , 25 June , 25 , 29 June , 29 24 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 8 slogans today recall thoseof Ukraine’s Euromaidan two years ago. democratic development through political andsocio/economic reforms. Armenian Euromaidan and“Electric Armenia” call for more transparencyandfor sustainable Armenia isaimedat holding corrupt politicians accountable for theiractions. Both vibrant one thanit was10or 20years ago. Like inUkraine,agrassroots movement in similarities exist.Oneof themistheemergenceof anewcivil society, amuch more with theUkrainianEuromaidan, themotivations behindtheprotests suggest that demonstrators hurried toproclaim that theirprotest movements hadnothingtodo Armenians, like Ukrainiansin2013,arefighting for abetterfuture. Even ifthe system proposed byRussian President Putin. Armenians protesting on Baghramyan Avenue canacceptinthelong runthevalue for Armenia isconsidered asadisappointment. It ishardtoimaginethat young of the EEU and now Brussels needs to elaborate an alternative policy framework for Armenians. countering Russian mediaandstate propaganda will bethemostchallenging task prism. Meanwhile, aninformation warhasbegunand,astheUkrainiancaseshows, West andviews all social protests through conspiracy theories andageopolitical 30 than security.” as an“actof surrenderandsubmission […]rooted more in[their]insecurity, rather Russia istheonly security guarantor for Armenia), theArmenian youth perceived it dominated union. Even if nobody protested loudly against the“choice” (because referendum on where thepopulation saw its future: intheEUor inaRussian- This wasaunilateral decision of theArmenian government. Yerevan never helda the EU. Yet it wasforced torenounceandlater tojoin theEurasian Economic Union. As mentioned in2013Armenia wasabout tosign theAssociation Agreement with 3. Anewgeneration of Armenian civil society Maidan,” theRussian political analyst SegeyMarkov writes on Facebook. #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope 33 32 31 Free Europe/Radio Liberty blog, 13 July 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/27092629.html. July 2015, 13 blog, Liberty Europe/Radio Free 23 June 2015, https://www.facebook.com/sergey.markov.5/posts/678274678966867. June 2015, 23 Facebook in excuse), but an it is for electricity, prices rising by provoked unrest The …” (Armenia. 24 June 2015, https://www.opendemocracy.net/node/93842. June 2015, 24 or isunwilling toaccepttheexistenceof it. Whitmore notes,theKremlin justdoes notunderstandtheconcept of civil society interests inthepost-Soviet spaceandinparticular inArmenia. the US,NATO, or theEUisanenormous mistake and it would only harmRussian there aresome otherswarningthat toreduce everything totheill intention of

Sergey Markedonov, “What Armenians are protesting (and what they’re not)”, openDemocracy in they’re (and what protesting are Armenians Markedonov, “What Sergey Richard Giragosian, “Armenia: approaching the precipice”, the cit. approaching “Armenia: Giragosian, Richard | Radio Yerevan”, in |Radio Power Vertical Colors Vertical: Moscow The Daily in “The Whitmore, Brian Sergey Markov,Sergey “ 33 That iswhy theEU’s rhetoric that Armenia “chose” tobeamember Армения. Волнения спровоцированы повышением цен на электричество, но это предлог это но электричество, на цен повышением спровоцированы Волнения Армения. 32 That iswhy it always demonises the 31 But asBrian 30 However, ,

, IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI 9 powered bythesocial media. they arefunctioning on a case-by-case basis. Civic activism isspontaneous and form of funding from international donors. In order to avoid institutionalisation gain legitimacy intheeyes of thepopulation, thesecivic activists do notacceptany about elite NGOs, but also about self-organised, grassroots movements. In order to The current events reveal that contemporary Armenian civil society isnotonly to MaidanSquare. June 2015, http://hetq.am/eng/news/61116. 2015, June DetailansichtPubDB?rec_id=3313. Digest Analytical way that wecanelect ourgovernment.” is regimechange.Then, we must be able to operate the electoral system in such a country.” “Serzhandhisgangmust beremoved.” “Thefirststeptochange Armenia institution.” “Schoolpupils must beinstructed tobecitizens of anindependent “Armenia will changewhen thepolice department becomes amore humane must be generational change […] We must make sure that legality takes precedence.” must beformed. This,on its own, will lead tothesolution of all problems.” “There believe thereisonly one stepneededtochangethecountry [...]anactive society demonstrating a new wave of civil action and thinking. Here are some of them: “I from protesters undertheheading“Thevoice of Armenia’s newgeneration” The Hetq investigative journalism website published acollection of quotations #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope 35 34 force inthecountry. Bearingthisin mind,thequestion ishow tosupport these a newgeneration of civil society, which could one day become aruling political The maintake-away for theEUfrom theseArmenian events isthe emergenceof to fight alone for its rights and hope for real change. that its actions aregenuine, demonstrating that civil society iscourageousenough by maintaining distancefrom thepolitical establishment, themovement proves group it ishardtoimaginehow theseprotests canbesustained.At thesametime, the strengthof thedemonstrators. Without apolitical leader and/or organised they cannotrely on local political forces. Thisistheweaknessandat thesametime political opposition in their country as of the ruling political establishment. Thus, Demonstrations aredominated byyouth intheir20s,which areassceptical of the Apparently, thereisnoleader andopposition groups do notguidethemovement. Also inthiscasetheprotests arelargely organised through thesocial media. the government topostpone theimplementation of anewpension reform. grassroots groups conducted a“No totheMandatory Law” campaign andforced a hydropower station from beingconstructed at ascenic waterfall site. Lastyear, preserving anoldopen-air cinema amphitheatre from demolition andpreventing valuable building areaandfight against illegal construction. Examples include environmental issues, mainly to safeguard green spaces, preserve an architecturally

Yevgenya Jenny Paturyan, “Armenian Civil Society: It Not Caucasus NGOs”, about All in is Society: Civil “Armenian Yevgenya Paturyan, Jenny “The Voice of Armenia’s New Generation – Three Steps to Changing Armenia”, in Hetq.am in Armenia”, to Changing Steps –Three Generation Voice New of Armenia’s “The , No. 73 (26 May 2015), p. 2-5, p. http://www.css.ethz.ch/publications/ 2015), (26 May , No. 73 35 Grassroots groups have beenactive on ecological/ 34 Theseweretheideals that led Ukrainians , 24 , 24 10 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI European partners:anewgeneration of avibrant civil society willing tofight for it isextremely important tofactor-in thenewreality emerginginsome of its problem with theKremlin. Thus, when theEUisrevising its Neighbourhood Policy as buffer zones andblocking their NATO membership will notresolve the West’s the Kremlin’s position intheregion. That iswhy declaringsome of thesecountries post-Soviet countries opting for aEuropean modelof governance. Thisundermines is notreally about theWest posingsecurity challenges to Russia, but it isall about threatens Putin’s regime.TheArmenian protest, andtheRussian reactions toit, Russian establishment. It isfreedom of assembly, perse , asademocratic right that not for NATO and/or EUenlargement) that posesthegravest challenge tothe Moscow understandsthat it istheArmenian youth’s enthusiasm for change(and clash betweenArmenia andRussia islikely tocome tothefore indue course. the Turkish-Armenian dispute to besolved inthe short run),but thevalue system foreign policy priorities (asone cannotexpecttheNagorno-Karabakh conflict or may notcause abreakthrough andimmediate U-turn inArmenia’s domestic and values. Thislimits thefuture prospects of thisalliance. Thecurrent demonstrations are basedon Armenia’s security andeconomic concerns rather thanon common to look for abetterfuture thanaSoviet redux. Relations betweenArmenia andRussia could evolve, it iscertainthat Armenian youth with such aspirit of changeislikely domestic andforeign policy. Today, while it ishardtopredict how thelocal protest new political elite will ariseout of thiscivil society causing ashiftinthecountry’s in Baghramyan Avenue intheArmenian capital city Yerevan. Sooner or later, a citizenship hasemergeddemonstrating its force bothon Freedom Squareand in order tolive inabettercountry basedon Western values. Anewsenseof active both Armenia andUkraineenjoy anewgeneration ready tostandup for its rights Even if Armenians reject parallels between “#ElecticYerevan” and Euromaidan, Conclusion in its relations with Armenia. should continue toemphasise democratic development andhuman rights issues public scrutiny of governance at central and local levels. More broadly, the EU movements andencouragetheauthorities toundertake legislative stepsfavouring should encouragedialogue betweentheArmenian government andgrassroots advocacy skills and active participation in decision-making. To this end, the EU order tosupport capacity building of theyouth movements inpolicy formulation, European foundations. Furthermore, theEUcanorganise trainingcoursesin in Europe than is now guaranteed through the Erasmus programme or by other these developments. More Armenian students should enjoy thepossibility tostudy change. Nonetheless, therecould bestill some indirectways inorder tosupport institutionalisation anddelegitimise theminthepublic’s eyes asreal agents of the EU to provide direct funding to grassroots movements. It could lead totheir as donor-driven andconsequently notreliable actors. Therefore, it isriskyfor young custodians of democracy. NGOs in Armenia have often been perceived #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope 11 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI problems andaccommodate theinterests of all inthesharedneighbourhood. not on theillusion that with different security arrangements one cansolve regional Western values. Any newstrategy should bebasedon thisvery understandingand #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope Updated 13July 2015 12 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 22 - JULY 2015 ISSN 2280-4341 | ISBN 978-88-98650-46-0 © 2015 IAI Latest IAIWORKING PAPERS #ElectricYerevan: Why Armenia’s Future isinEurope www.iai.it [email protected] F +39 T +39 Via Angelo Brunetti, 9-I-00186 Rome, Italy and otherpapers’ series related toIAIresearch projects. (AffarInternazionali), two series of research papers (QuaderniIAIand Research Papers) publishes anEnglish-language quarterly (TheInternational Spectator), anonline webzine and theMiddle East;defence economy andpolicy; andtransatlantic relations. TheIAI in the global economy and internationalisation processes in Italy; the Mediterranean research sectors are:European institutions andpolicies; Italian foreign policy; trends and abroad andisamemberof various international networks. More specifically, themain that end,it cooperates with otherresearch institutes, universities andfoundations inItaly and disseminate knowledge through research studies, conferences andpublications. To economy andinternational security. 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