Electronic Journal of Statistics ISSN: 1935-7524 Importance Sampling and its Optimality for Stochastic Simulation Models Yen-Chi Chen and Youngjun Choe University of Washington, Department of Statistics Seattle, WA 98195 e-mail:
[email protected]∗ University of Washington, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Seattle, WA 98195 e-mail:
[email protected]∗ Abstract: We consider the problem of estimating an expected outcome from a stochastic simulation model. Our goal is to develop a theoretical framework on importance sampling for such estimation. By investigating the variance of an importance sampling estimator, we propose a two-stage procedure that involves a regression stage and a sampling stage to construct the final estimator. We introduce a parametric and a nonparametric regres- sion estimator in the first stage and study how the allocation between the two stages affects the performance of the final estimator. We analyze the variance reduction rates and derive oracle properties of both methods. We evaluate the empirical performances of the methods using two numerical examples and a case study on wind turbine reliability evaluation. MSC 2010 subject classifications: Primary 62G20; secondary 62G86, 62H30. Keywords and phrases: nonparametric estimation, stochastic simulation model, oracle property, variance reduction, Monte Carlo. 1. Introduction The 2011 Fisher lecture (Wu, 2015) features the landscape change in engineer- ing, where computer simulation experiments are replacing physical experiments thanks to the advance of modeling and computing technologies. An insight from the lecture highlights that traditional principles for physical experiments do not necessarily apply to virtual experiments on a computer. The virtual environ- ment calls for new modeling and analysis frameworks distinguished from those arXiv:1710.00473v2 [stat.ME] 25 Sep 2019 developed under the constraint of physical environment.