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Political Report A M ONTHLYPolitical P OLL C O mp IL A TION Report Volume 9, Issue 10 • November 2013 Conspiracy Theories Fifty years after President John F. Kennedy’s assassination, the belief that more than one person was involved in his assassination remains the most widely held conspiracy theory in America. In an April 2013 poll, 59 percent said others were involved. In this issue of AEI’s Political Report, we look at public views on a number of events that elicit conspiracy theories, from Franklin Roosevelt’s purported knowledge of the attack on Pearl Harbor to the belief that Osama bin Laden is alive. Comparisons across events are difficult with polls taken at different points in time, but it does not appear that any particular demographic group is more inclined to believe in conspiracy theories than any other. The JFK Assassination Q: Do you think . ? 1963 The assassination of President Kennedy was the work of just one man 24% There were other people involved, too 62 Don’t know 14 Source: National Opinion Research Center, November–December 1963. Q: I’m going to read some ways that some people felt when they first heard that the President John F. Kennedy was dead, and I’d like you to tell me which one of the statements on this card comes closest to your own feelings at the time . ————————————1963———————————— Some Communist A segregationist or other radical to get or extreme rid of the President right-winger Very deepest feeling that it was done by 13% 8% Felt it quite deeply 15 10 Crossed my mind but not deeply 40 32 Never occurred to me 32 50 Source: National Opinion Research Center, November–December 1963. Q: Turning now to the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963, there have been many theories about who was involved in the assassination. I’d like to know if you think any of the following were involved in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Do you think . ? 2003 Was not Lyndon Johnson was involved in the assassination 18% 75% The Mafia 37 56 The CIA 34 60 The Soviet Union 15 77 Cubans 15 78 Note: Each category asked of a half sample. Source: Gallup, November 2003. 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org Q: Do you think . ? 2003 We know all the facts about the assassination of President John F. Kennedy 14% There was a cover-up 74 Source: Fox News, October 2003. Q: There has been significant speculation about the circumstances surrounding the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Which statement do you agree with more? 2012 There is nothing left to know about the There are still too many questions surrounding circumstances surrounding the Kennedy Kennedy’s assassination to say that Lee Harvey assassination. Lee Harvey Oswald acted on Oswald acted by himself, or that there is not his own to assassinate the President, and a larger conspiracy regarding the details of there was no conspiracy 25% his death 75% Source: University of Virginia/Hart Research, May 2012. Q: Do you think . ? 2013 One man was responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy 24% Others were involved in a conspiracy 59 Don’t know 16 Source: AP-GfK/Roper, April 2013. Pearl Harbor Q: Here are several accusations that some people have made against the federal government in recent years. Please tell me if you think each of these is very likely, somewhat likely, or unlikely . ? 1997 Very likely that President Roosevelt knew in advance that the Japanese were going to bomb Pearl Harbor, but he did not warn our troops because he wanted to get the United States involved in World War II 16% Somewhat likely 26 Unlikely 43 Source: Scripps Howard/Ohio University, June 1997. Waco Q: Do you think . ? 1999 There has been an official cover-up by the government or the FBI to keep the public from learning the truth about the events in Waco 62% No cover up 25 Don’t know 12 Source: CBS News, October 1999. 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Aliens Q: Do you . ? 2013 Believe a UFO crashed at Roswell, New Mexico, in 1947, and the government covered it up 21% Do not believe 47 Not sure 32 Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013. Q: Some Americans feel that flying saucers are real and that the federal government is hiding the truth about them from us. Do you think . ? 2007 It’s very likely that flying saucers are real and that the federal government is hiding the truth about them from us 11% Somewhat likely 24 Not likely 55 Source: Scripps Howard/Ohio University, September 2007. MLK Assassination Q: Do you think . ? ————Asked of African Americans, 1969———— Martin Luther King’s assassination was the result of a conspiracy 82% It was the act of one man only 5 Not sure 13 Source: Gallup, May 1969. Q: Do you think . ? ——Responses of—— African National response, 2008 Americans Whites The assassination of Martin Luther King was the act of one individual 33% 9% 40% Part of a larger conspiracy 55 88 50 Source: CNN/Essence, March 2008. Moon Landing Q: Do you . ? 2013 Believe the moon landing was faked 7% Do not believe 84 Not sure 9 Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013. 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 Princess Diana’s Death Osama bin Laden Alive? Q: Do you . ? Q: Do you . ? 2007 2011 Believe there was foul play involved Believe that Osama bin Laden is dead 86% in Princess Diana’s death 31% Think he is still alive 11 It was purely an accident 50 Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, June 2011. Don’t know 19 Source: Fox News, August 2007. Is Elvis Alive? Q: There have been reports and rumors that Elvis Presley 9/11 is still alive. Do you think . ? Q: Do you . ? 1997 2013 There is a possibility that Elvis is still alive 6% Believe the United States government No 89 knowingly allowed the attacks on Not sure 5 September 11th, 2001, to happen 11% Note: Asked of registered voters. Do not believe 78 Source: Fox News, August 1997. Not sure 11 Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013. Chem Trails Q: Do you . ? The CIA and Crack Cocaine 2013 Q: Do you . ? Believe that the exhaust seen in the sky 2013 behind airplanes is actually chemicals Believe the CIA was instrumental in sprayed by the government for distributing crack cocaine into America’s sinister reasons 4% inner cities in the 1980s 14% Do not believe 88 Do not believe 55 Not sure 7 Not sure 30 Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013. Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013. Obama’s Birthplace Q: Do you think . ? May 2011 March 2011 July 2010 Barack Obama was definitely born in the United States 58% 46% 42% Probably born in the United States 22 26 29 Probably born in another country 10 15 16 Definitely born in another country 7 10 11 Note: In May 2011, 28 percent of self-identified Republicans said Obama was probably (16 percent) or definitely (12 percent) born in another country. Nine percent of self-identified Democrats gave those responses. When the question was first asked in July 2010, 41 percent of Republicans said he was probably or definitely born in another country. Fifteen percent of Democrats gave those responses. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of July 2011. AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Madeline Glista; Kate Wildman. 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 Congress at Bottom: Will the Negativity Last? During the shutdown, several pollsters found the disapproval ratings for Congress at an all-time high. Eighty-five percent in the CBS News poll, for example, disapproved of the job Congress was doing. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll, approval of Congress was at a 40-year low. Republicans in Congress saw their ratings slide, but the Democrats in the body had low ratings, too. Poll results from times of high drama can be ephemeral. The 2014 congressional elections are a year away. But at this early point, people are in a strongly anti-incumbent mood. Whether these feelings will dissipate remains to be seen. In the ABC/Post poll, two-thirds said they were inclined to look around for someone else to vote for next year, the highest response since these pollsters first asked the question in 1989. For the first time in the poll, more people disapproved than approved of their own member of Congress. Normally, people support their own member while disapproving of Congress as a whole. Not now. Q: Thinking about the next election in _______, right now, are you inclined to . ? 70% 66% 60% Look around for someone else to vote for 50% 40% Re-elect your representative in Congress 30% 24% 20% 10% 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of October 2013. Q: Let’s imagine for a moment that the Constitution Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed allowed you to immediately remove everyone in Con- you to vote to defeat and replace every single member gress. If you could fire every lawmaker on Capitol Hill of Congress, including your own representative, right now, including your own Senators and representa- would you .
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