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Military Veteran Candidates in the 2014 Election

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Military Veteran Candidates in the 2014 Election FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 30, 2014 For additional information contact: Seth Lynn, Executive Director Veterans Campaign 202­495­1831 Military Veteran Candidates in the 2014 Election In advance of the 2014 Congressional Midterm Election, Veterans Campaign released its initial analysis of the the races involving Veteran candidates today. This preliminary research provides insight into Veteran candidates running in House and Senate races nationally. Veterans Campaign, is the nation’s first organization to offer non­partisan, non­ideological research and training for Veterans who are interested in running for public office. Over the last four decades, the number of Veterans serving in Congress has steadily declined. The programs, services and research of Veterans Campaign seek to systematically engage and prepare Veterans for electoral leadership roles. In addition to the data provided below, Veterans Campaign will present a post­election Campaign 2014 Field Report on December 15, 2014 at 9 a.m. at the Army Navy Club of Washington, DC, located at 901 Seventeenth Street NW, Washington, DC. Summary of Key Findings For the U.S. House of Representatives: ● We have identified 94 non­incumbent Veterans who are major party nominees, of whom 8 are strongly positioned to win and another 8 are in very close races ● Of these 16 contenders, over half are Veterans of Iraq and/or Afghanistan ● The number of Veterans with major party nominations (164) is 20 fewer than in the 2012 election (184). This is the largest drop in recent history, despite a slight increase in the number of Veterans nominated by the Democratic party ● 10 Women Veterans received a major party nomination, the highest number ever ● Democratic Veterans are running in significantly tougher districts compared with their fellow non­incumbent Democratic nominees without military service ● The number of Veterans in the 114th House of Representatives will likely be between 76 and 86, continuing a decades­long decline For the U.S. Senate: ● 11 new Veterans have secured a major party nomination for the Senate, 5 of whom are considered strong contenders ● Of these 5 contenders, all except Peters have deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan during their military service ● Joni Ernst (R­IA) is poised to become the first­ever female Veteran in the U.S. Senate ● The number of Senate Veterans may increase, and will likely be between 17 and 22 Veterans in the U.S. House of Representatives: At the beginning of the current term there were 87 Veterans in the House of Representatives, including 12 freshmen. ● 3 are no longer serving ○ Bill Young (R­FL) died while in office ○ Ed Markey (D­MA) was elected to the Senate in a special election ○ Rodney Alexander (R­LA) resigned to become Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs ● 2 additional Veterans entered the 113th Congress in special elections ○ Vance McAllister (R­LA) and Mark Sanford (R­SC) 86 Veterans are currently serving in the House of Representatives ● 2 were defeated in primaries: ○ Kerry Bentivolio (R­MI) and Ralph Hall (R­TX) ● 8 are retiring from public office: ○ Spencer Bachus (R­AL), Gary Miller (R­CA), Mike Rogers (R­MI), John Dingell (D­MI), Howard Coble (R­NC), Bill Owens (D­NY), Frank Wolf (R­VA), and Doc Hastings (R­WA) ● 4 decided to run for a different office: ○ Tim Griffin (R­AR) is running for Lieutenant Governor ○ Tom Cotton (R­AR) is running for the Senate ○ Paul Broun (R­GA) ran for the Senate but was defeated in the primary ○ Gary Peters (D­MI) is running for the Senate ● 72 Veteran incumbents are currently running for reelection. ○ This includes 54 Republicans and 18 Democrats. ○ Four of them are facing serious challenges: Mike Coffman (R­CO), Michael Grimm (R­NY), Vance McAllister (R­LA), and Bill Enyart (D­IL). We have identified 94 non­incumbent Veterans who are major party nominees. ● These “new Veterans” include 41 Republicans and 53 Democrats. ● Additionally, Army Veteran Ron Kabat ran as an independent and secured a nomination in California's blanket primary. ● 8 new Veterans are very strongly positioned to win: ○ Ruben Gallego (D­AZ), Ted Lieu (D­CA), Barry Loudermilk (R­GA), Steve Russell (R­OK), and Brian Babin (R­TX) are considered shoe­ins ○ Mark Takai (D­HI), Ryan Zinke (R­MT), and Seth Moulton (D­MA) are facing stiff opposition but are expected to prevail ● 8 additional new Veterans are in very close races: ○ Patrick Henry Hays (AR­2), Martha McSally (AZ­2), and Mike Bost (IL­12) are in races that are too close to call ○ Lee Zeldin (R­NY), Mariannette Miller­Meeks (R­IA), Paul Chabot (R­CA), Jeff Gorell (R­26), and Stephen Knight (R­CA) are running behind their opponents, but are still very much in the race ● Of these 16 contenders, over half are Veterans of Iraq and/or Afghanistan The decline in Veterans in the House of Representatives is likely to continue with the 114th Congress. ● The number of Veterans in the 114th House of Representatives will likely be between 76 and 86 ○ 75 Veterans are favored to win their races ○ The IL­12 race between Bill Enyart and Michael Boss is a toss­up, but both nominees are Veterans ○ 10 other Veterans are in very close races ■ Even if all 10 win their races (a very slim possibility), there will be 86 Veterans in the House next year, compared to 87 after last election We have identified 164 veterans with a major party nomination, compared to 184 in the 2012 election.1 ● This represents the largest decline in recent history (see Chart 1 below). ○ The decline is due entirely to a significant drop in Republican Veteran nominees from 116 in 2012 to 93 in 2014. ○ The number of Democratic Veteran nominees actually increased from 68 in 2012 to 71 in 2014. ○ This represents a sharp reversal: the number of Democratic Veteran nominees has been decreasing while the number of Republican Veteran nominees in every election since 2006 (see Chart 3 below). ● Despite the overall drop in Veteran nominees, there has been an increase in the number of women Veteran nominees. ● 10 women Veterans received a major party House nomination in 2014, the highest number ever (see Chart 4 below). The new Democratic Veterans are running in significantly tougher districts compared with their fellow non­incumbent Democratic nominees without military service. ● On average, the former are running in districts that Romney won by 21 percent, while the latter's districts went to Romney by 16 percent. ● Among non­incumbent Republican nominees, Veterans are running in districts that are about as competitive as their fellow Republican nominees who haven’t served. 1 Our nominee count does not include candidates from Louisiana, as they do not receive nominations. However, two incumbent Veterans, both Republicans, are running for reelection in Louisiana: John Fleming and Vance McAllister. Veterans in the U.S. Senate At the beginning of the current term there were 20 Veterans in the Senate ● 2 are no longer serving: ○ John Kerry (D­MA) resigned to become Secretary of State ○ Frank Lautenberg (D­NJ) died while in office ● 2 additional Veterans were installed in the Senate to fill vacancies: ○ Ed Markey (D­MA) was seated after winning a special election ○ John Walsh (D­MT) was appointed by the Governor of Montana 20 Veterans are currently incumbents in the Senate. ● 8 are not up for reelection in 2014 ● 3 are retiring (including John Walsh, who withdrew his nomination) ● 9 are currently running and have secured their party’s nomination ○ All are in seats generally considered safe, except Pat Roberts (R­KS) 11 new Veterans have secured a major party nomination for the Senate ● 8 are Republicans and 3 are Democrats ● 1 of these nominees, Gary Peters (D­MI), is running for a safe seat ● 4 are in very close races: Joni Ernst (R­IA), Tom Cotton (R­AR), Dan Sullivan (R­AK), and Scott Brown (R­NH) ● Of these 5 contenders, all except Peters have deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan during their military service The number of Veterans in the Senate may increase ● However, for this to happen, four of the following five candidates would need to win in very competitive races: ○ Pat Roberts (R­KS), Joni Ernst (R­IA), Tom Cotton (R­AR), Dan Sullivan (R­AK), and Scott Brown (R­NH). ● The number of Veterans in the next Senate will likely be between 17 and 22. Women Veterans in Congress ● Two Women Veterans are currently serving in Congress: ○ Tammy Duckworth (D­IL) and Tulsi Gabbard (D­HI) ● Three others have served previously: ○ Heather Wilson, Sandy Adams, and Catherine Small Long ● This year, 10 women Veterans have received a major party nomination for the House, and Joni Ernst (R­IA) is the Republican Senate nominee for Iowa. ○ The two incumbent Congresswomen are expected to be reelected ○ Joni Ernst (R­IA) is favored to narrowly win the Iowa race ○ Martha McSally (R­AZ) is running in one of the closest races in the country ○ Mariannette Miller­Meeks (R­IA) has turned what initially looked like a longshot bid into a very serious challenge, but still faces an uphill battle ○ Wendy Rogers (R­AZ) and Suzanne Patrick (D­VA) both remain competitive, but are not favored to win by most prognosticators ○ The other four candidates, Corinna Robinson (D­SD), Catherine Ping (R­IN), Shirley McKellar (D­TX), and Donna McAleer (D­UT) are considered long shots. ● In 2012, 9 women Veterans received a major party nomination for the House ○ 8 Democrats and a Republican ○ Two were elected ­ Duckworth & Gabbard ○ Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson was the Republican Senate nominee for New Mexico, but did not win her race Frequently Asked Questions ● Can I see your data? ○ Yes, it’s here.
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