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Mbagala, Tanzania, As a Case Kers, DA Eindhoven University of Technology MASTER Industrial development and electricity supply : Mbagala, Tanzania, as a case Kers, D.A. Award date: 1999 Link to publication Disclaimer This document contains a student thesis (bachelor's or master's), as authored by a student at Eindhoven University of Technology. Student theses are made available in the TU/e repository upon obtaining the required degree. The grade received is not published on the document as presented in the repository. The required complexity or quality of research of student theses may vary by program, and the required minimum study period may vary in duration. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain lndustrial develop~t e~city supply Mbagala, Tanzania, as a case Daan Kers 1997 identity number 332880 supervised by dr. P.E. Lapperre ir. J~G.J. Sloot dr. A.M.C. Lemmens · Master\.t.Science thesis in Technology and Development Studies Facultyti# f'ëchnology Management Eindhoven Univarsity of Technology, the Netherlands Sociability must be combined with other factors like honesty, a high propensity to save, entrepre­ neuriel energy and talent, and interest in education to lead to economically productive activities. Francis Fukuyama in Trust Summary This research concerns industrial development and factors which affect this development. ---------------- ... -- -- The quality of sleetricity supply, as one of these factors, is elaborated upon a project appraisal. The research is .~PJ~Iieci__!_o Mba_!;)_~Ja,. a suburb of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. As introduction, the performance of industries and characteristics of sleetricity supply in Tanzania are described. Factors which possibly influence industrial development are invented and structured. Th is is done from an institutional approach and serves as thought-supporting preparatien for the industrial survey. First, 'all industries established in Mbagala are invented. A surv~ amongst these industries is conducted to study their tunetion and the factors affecting it. Important suppliers of industries are institutes. Their supply of services is mentioned by the industries as the most important factors. Main institutes are selected: land and urban development, electricity, telecommunication, roads, water, industrial support, education and health. A description of the quantity and quality of their services is made, based on interviews held with employees concerned with supply in Mbagala. The study of industries and institutes leads to the following results: • Most industries indicate sleetricity supply as the most restricting factor, foliowed by · water supply. Other factors mentioned include roads, security and bureaucracy. • Own findings · indicate knowledge and skilis and cultural behaviour related to entrepreneurship as additional factors of importance. A shortcoming concerning knowledge and skilis is a lack of maintenance management. • • Economie infrastructure is very poor in Mbagala, worse than in the rest of Dar es Salaam. But the prospects are promising. • The factors are grouped and a framewerk is compiled. This includes government attitude, financial infrastructure, physical infrastructure and human capabilities. Main features are: • In line with the liberalization trend in Tanzania, progress has been made in financial infrastructure (taxes, exchange ratel. Effects for industries take a relatively short time. • lmprovements in physical infrastructure have been announced or already started. Financed impravement plans including Mbagala concern roads, telephone and sleetricity supply. Plans for water supply impravement are in a preliminary phase. Physical infrastructure influences industrial development at the medium-term. • To human capabilities no serieus attention has been paid. These factors are complex, with long periods of influence and return on investments. The performance of health care and education has been worsened and the prospects are gloomy. The electricity supply in Mbagala, mentioned by the industries as most affecting factor, is studied in depth. As part of an impravement plan for the electricity grid in Dar es Salaam, the World Bank made a project proposal for Mbagala in 1993. The methodology used by the World Bank is directed to national and Dar es Salaam level and does nat consider develop­ ments at P-rQject JeyeJ. Therefore, the results of the World Bank study are nat accepted and an own _rne_!~~~~-l?gy for project appraisal is designed and applied. The designed appraisal methodology is based on area-specific characteristics and covers an assumed project period of ten years. An important area-specific element is the laad forecast, which is undertaken after the present situation of supply is defined. From different laad forecast methods, time trend extrapolation turns out to be the most useful one for househeld use in Mbagala. The industrial loads are forecasted individually by means of the survey method. Another area-specific element of the project appraisal is the definition of bottlenecks, which may threat a successful project implementation. Appliance of the project appraisal methodology to Mbagala results in: • The quality of electricity supply is that bad that impravement is required as soon as possible. • To guarantee the quality of supply a substation should be constructed in Mbagala, fed by a transmission feeder from a substation eperating at higher voltages. Considering new residential developments, 5 distribution feeders are required. A design is made, in which the existing grid is used. • On the basis of cast-benefit analyses the grid dimension chosen is ·132 kV as trans­ mission voltage and 33 kV as distri bution voltage (denoted as 132/33 kV). • Casts and quantifiable benefits indicate an unfeasible project for Tanesco. For the national economy, the project is just feasible. The reason for low benefits is that profit from residential electricity safes are nearly zero, due to subsidies. Detailed determination of the project feasibility is arbitrary, because the negleetien of non-quantifiable benefits affects the results . • • The most unreliable element used to come to the grid design is the laad forecast for households. This is caused by the character of the laad growth of the area, resulting in a low forecast accuracy. Th is growth is determined by an unplanned urbanization process, combined with uncertain economie prospects. The deviation of required grid capacity, resulting from sensitivity analysis, leads to the choice for a gradual capacity increase of the substation transformer. Preface Most people in this world live in so-called developing countries. With the term 'developing' one refers to a desirabie process of increasing the welfare of people. Many theories have been developed and practised to describe and realise such a process. An example which is widely supported amongst researchers is economical development driven by industrialization. Strategies used in Africa to help this process going, have nat been successful. In the late 1 980s most African governments shifted their strategy to one with less reg u lation and control in economy. New changes and threats emerged for indus­ tries. In 1992, when this process developed in Tanzania, the idea came into being to undertake a research about industrialization in Mbagala. lndustrialization is a main component in my study Technology and Development Studies at the Univarsity of Eindhoven. The development methodelogies educated here are strongly related to industrial development, in which technology plays a major role. Mbagala was chosen because it is one of the tast growing suburbs in Tanzania, a country in east Africa with typical characteristics of !l_çc::momi<:;<:~l underdevelopment. As such, patterns of complicated development in the economie sphere were expected. My research had been executed with the support of the Tanzanian Electricity Supply Company. The company enabled me to elaborate electricity aspects. This approach is in accordance with my background as engineer in electrical energy. The research in Tanzania covered a period from November 1992 to May 1993 and was foliowed by fieldwork in October and November 1996. During the follow-up research I found some major changes, in particular in Mbagala. These changes are reflected in this report, market o-~~-~_!~~~~Q!)O!Iljf~L~P.b_~e. To stress that economy is nat saving, I will mention the day we walked through the torest I used to train in before, nat far trom Mbagala. All trees had been cut and burned - probably to make woodfuel for food preparatien - and the monkeys disappeared with them. words of thanks During my research in Tanzania as wellas in the Netherlands many people supported me. To everybody I would like to say: thanks ! A list of contributors to this research is enclosed in the chapter 'information sources'. I will thank a tew of them especially: My supervisor dr. Paul Lapperre for his assistance and patience during my research; my other Dutch counsellors dr. Joop Sloot and dr. Lex Lammens for cammending my work. The people trom the Tanzanian Electricity Company fortheir co-operation.
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