DOCSLIB.ORG

An Investigation of Tropical Rainfall Downwind of Urban Areas Along the United States East Coast

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
An Investigation of Tropical Rainfall Downwind of Urban Areas Along the United States East Coast Mississippi State University Scholars Junction Theses and Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 1-1-2008 An Investigation of Tropical Rainfall Downwind of Urban Areas along the United States East Coast Ashley Marie Hayes Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsjunction.msstate.edu/td Recommended Citation Hayes, Ashley Marie, "An Investigation of Tropical Rainfall Downwind of Urban Areas along the United States East Coast" (2008). Theses and Dissertations. 603. https://scholarsjunction.msstate.edu/td/603 This Graduate Thesis - Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Scholars Junction. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholars Junction. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AN INVESTIGATION OF TROPICAL RAINFALL DOWNWIND OF URBAN AREAS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST By Ashley Marie Hayes A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Mississippi State University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geosciences in the Department of Geosciences Mississippi State, Mississippi May 2008 AN INVESTIGATION OF TROPICAL RAINFALL DOWNWIND OF URBAN AREAS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST By Ashley Marie Hayes Approved: __________________________________ __________________________________ P. Grady Dixon Jamie L. Dyer Assistant Professor of Geosciences Assistant Professor of Geosciences (Director of Thesis) (Committee Member) __________________________________ __________________________________ Michael E. Brown Christopher P. Dewey Associate Professor of Geosciences Associate Professor of Geosciences (Committee Member) Graduate Coordinator of the Department of Geosciences __________________________________ __________________________________ Darrel Schmitz Gary Myers Professor of Geosciences Professor and Interim Dean of the Professor and Head, College of Arts and Sciences Department of Geosciences Name: Ashley Marie Hayes Date of Degree: May 3, 2008 Institution: Mississippi State University Major Field: Department of Geosciences (Operational Meteorology) Major Professor: Dr. Paul Grady Dixon Title of Study: AN INVESTIGATION OF TROPICAL RAINFALL DOWNWIND OF URBAN AREAS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST Pages in Study: 94 Candidate for Degree of Master of Science Studies have shown that urban areas enhance mesoscale precipitation but have not revealed if urban areas have the same effect on synoptic scale precipitation. This study used Multi-Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) stage III data to examine the effect of urban areas on rainfall associated with hurricanes and tropical storms from 1976–2005. These urban areas were divided into upwind and downwind areas where 6-hour precipitation totals were calculated and compared. Results displayed that 69.2% of urban areas had greater rainfall in the upwind area. Statistical analyses revealed that there is a larger range of higher precipitation values in the upwind area and a smaller range of lower precipitation values in the downwind area. Based on the results, there is no relationship between urban areas and enhanced rainfall; however, there is a relationship between the distribution of precipitation and urban areas. DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this research to my family and friends who have supported me in my dream of becoming a successful meteorologist. I would especially like to thank my mother, Marlene Riley. I will forever be grateful for all the encouragement, support, and love that she has given me throughout the years. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my thesis committee Dr. Grady Dixon, Dr. Jamie Dyer, and Dr. Michael Brown for all of their assistance throughout the course of this research. I would like to thank Dr. Kenneth Johnson and the staff at the National Weather Service Eastern Region Headquarters for all of their assistance during the summer of 2007. Also, I would like to personally thank Mr. Paul Trotter and the staff at the National Weather Service in Slidell, LA for teaching, inspiring, and encouraging me since 2003. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DEDICATION ...................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ..................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................. vi LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................................. viii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 OBJECTIVE AND HYPOTHESIS ........................................................... 4 II. LITERATURE REVIEW.......................................................................... 5 Landfall Effects on Tropical Rainfall ....................................................... 5 Urban Effects on Rainfall......................................................................... 6 III. DATA AND METHODS.......................................................................... 10 Research Area and Period ......................................................................... 10 Data .......................................................................................................... 12 Data Analyses ........................................................................................... 16 IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION................................................................ 27 Hurricane Bertha – 1996 ........................................................................... 27 Baltimore-Towson, MD and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD ....................................................................... 28 Raleigh-Cary, NC.......................................................................... 29 Richmond, VA .............................................................................. 30 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC .......................... 31 Hurricane Bonnie – 1998 .......................................................................... 32 iv Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC .......................... 33 Hurricane Floyd – 1999............................................................................. 34 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC .......................... 35 Hurricane Fran – 1996 .............................................................................. 36 Greensboro-High Point, NC........................................................... 37 Raleigh-Cary, NC.......................................................................... 38 Hurricane Gaston – 2004........................................................................... 39 Charleston-North Charleston, SC................................................... 40 Tropical Storm Hermine – 2004 ................................................................ 41 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA, Worcester, MA and Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH ........................... 42 Hurricane Isabel – 2003 ............................................................................ 43 Raleigh-Cary, NC.......................................................................... 44 Richmond, VA .............................................................................. 45 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC .......................... 46 Statistical Analyses ................................................................................... 47 V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................ 59 REFERENCES..................................................................................................... 63 APPENDIX A. REGIONAL VIEW OF 6-HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ASSOCIATED WITH EACH URBAN AREA.............................. 67 B. FREQUENCY HISTOGRAM FOR EACH URBAN AREA..................... 81 v LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 3.1 Tropical cyclones that made landfall along the East Coast from 1976–2005 ............................................................................................... 11 3.2 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale ................................................................... 13 3.3 Urbanized Areas .......................................................................................... 15 4.1 Downwind and upwind storm total precipitation and the differences ............ 48 4.2 Level of significance for the difference between storm total precipitations in the downwind and upwind area. ........................................................... 49 4.3 Statistics for the upwind and downwind areas of Baltimore-Towson, MD and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD during Hurricane Bertha........................................................................... 51 4.4 Statistics for the upwind and downwind areas of Raleigh-Cary, NC during Hurricane Bertha........................................................................... 51 4.5 Statistics for the upwind and downwind areas of Richmond, VA during Hurricane Bertha........................................................................... 52 4.6 Statistics for the upwind and downwind areas of Virginia Beach- Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC during Hurricane Bertha ....................... 52 4.7 Statistics for the upwind and downwind areas of Virginia Beach- Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC during Hurricane
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review
    2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review WHITEPAPER Executive Summary The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a quiet season, closing with eight 2014 marks the named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or longest period on stronger). record – nine Forecast groups predicted that the formation of El Niño and below consecutive years average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main – that no major Development Region (MDR)1 through the season would inhibit hurricanes made development in 2014, leading to a below average season. While 2014 landfall over the was indeed quiet, these predictions didn’t materialize. U.S. The scientific community has attributed the low activity in 2014 to a number of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, predominantly anomalously low Atlantic mid-level moisture, anomalously high tropical Atlantic subsidence (sinking air) in the Main Development Region (MDR), and strong wind shear across the Caribbean. Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin was also influenced by below average activity in the 2014 West African monsoon season, which suppressed the development of African easterly winds. The year 2014 marks the longest period on record – nine consecutive years since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 – that no major hurricanes made landfall over the U.S., and also the ninth consecutive year that no hurricane made landfall over the coastline of Florida. The U.S. experienced only one landfalling hurricane in 2014, Hurricane Arthur. Arthur made landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane on July 4, causing minor damage. While Mexico and Central America were impacted by two landfalling storms and the Caribbean by three, Bermuda suffered the most substantial damage due to landfalling storms in 2014.Hurricane Fay and Major Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall on the island within a week of each other, on October 12 and October 18, respectively.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane and Tropical Storm
    State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development.
    [Show full text]
  • CONGRESSIONAL RECORD— Extensions of Remarks E1745 HON
    September 24, 2010 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — Extensions of Remarks E1745 HONORING SUE PALKA It is important to recognize ways in which September 30, at the peak of hurricane sea- average investors of all ages and income lev- son. Madam Speaker, distinguished col- HON. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN els can access the same benefits as large real leagues, I ask you today to join me in passing OF MARYLAND estate investors. I stand with my colleague in this bill. However, we must dedicate ourselves IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES commending the 50th anniversary of Real Es- to finding a permanent solution for those tate Investment Trusts, and 50 years of pro- Americans adversely affected by flooding. The Friday, September 24, 2010 viding a broad range of investors an oppor- people of my district need a long-term exten- Mr. VAN HOLLEN. Madam Speaker, on tunity to achieve the investment goals of diver- sion of the flood insurance program—and they Monday, September 27, 2010, one of my con- sification, strong and reliable dividends, liquid- need to know that the flood insurance program stituents will be celebrating 25 years of out- ity, solid performance, and transparency. will always be there for them. While we are standing service to the Washington, DC met- f working to mitigate the damage caused by ropolitan region. floods, this program remains essential for NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE WTTG Fox 5 News weather forecaster Sue those tragic times when nature takes over. PROGRAM REEXTENSION ACT OF Palka has been bringing Washingtonians their With homes in my district and in every flood- 2010 weather reports for decades.
    [Show full text]
  • Shifting Sands Coastal Barrier Island Network
    March112, 2009 Coastal Barrier Island Network Volume 1, Issue 1 Shifting Sands Inside this issue: Development of a Research-Management-Outreach Framework for 2 sustaining Coastal Barrier Island Ecosystems: Inaugural Meeting Galveston, TX, January 2009 Lessons Learned from Hurricane Ike (Galveston Island and Boli- 4 var Peninsula): Perspectives of the Coastal Barrier Island Network (CBIN) The 2009 Hurricane Season: A Summary 14 Request For Proposals (2009-2012) 16 Participants in Inaugural Meeting in of CBIN at Galveston, Texas, Jan 3-7,2009. This meeting also allowed a first-hand look at the impacts of Hurricane Ike Hurricane Ike [aɪk] was the third most destructive hurricane to ever make land- fall in the United States. It was the ninth named storm, fifth hurricane and third major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. Ike also had the high- est IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) of any Atlantic storm in history. Top row, L to R: Greg Carter, Dave Thomas, Don Young, Richard Koske, Jim Gibeaut, Karl Nordstrom, and William K. Smith. Middle row, L to R: Stanley Riggs, Nor- bert Psuty, Jennifer Dugan, and Kelly Lucas. Bottom row, L to R: Kam-Biu Liu, Marisa Martinez Vasquez, Amy Wil- liams, Heather Joesting, Jane Gemma, Nicholas Kraus, Nancy Jackson, and Rusty Feagin. Page 2 Shifting Sands Volume 1, Issue 1 Development of a Research-Management-Outreach Framework for Sustaining Coastal Barrier Island Ecosystems: Inaugural Meeting — Galveston, TX, January 2009 Priority questions identified and compiled at the Galveston meeting are as
    [Show full text]
  • Richmond, VA Hurricanes
    Hurricanes Influencing the Richmond Area Why should residents of the Middle Atlantic states be concerned about hurricanes during the coming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30? After all, the big ones don't seem to affect the region anymore. Consider the following: The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, north of Florida, was Isabel in 2003. The last Category 3 was Fran in 1996, and the last Category 4 was Hugo in 1989. Meanwhile, ten Category 2 or stronger storms have made landfall along the Gulf Coast between 2004 and 2008. Hurricane history suggests that the Mid-Atlantic's seeming immunity will change as soon as 2009. Hurricane Alley shifts. Past active hurricane cycles, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, have brought many destructive storms to the region, particularly to shore areas. Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk. Extensive coastal development and a rising sea make for increased vulnerability. A storm like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, a powerful Category 3, would savage shorelines from North Carolina to New England. History suggests that such an event is due. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 came ashore in North Carolina as a Category 4 to directly slam the Mid-Atlantic region. It swirled hurricane-force winds along an interior track of 700 miles, through the Northeast and into Canada. More than 100 people died. Hazel-type wind events occur about every 50 years. Areas north of Florida are particularly susceptible to wind damage.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm
    5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.
    [Show full text]
  • The Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary – 2014
    THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON SUMMARY – 2014 SPECIAL FOCUS ON ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA (PRELIMINARY) Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section December 4, 2014 Satellite Image: Hurricane Gonzalo – Oct 13, 12:45 pm 2014 1 The Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary – 2014 Special Focus on Antigua and Barbuda Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section December 3, 2014 The Season in Brief The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was relatively quiet generally but relatively average for Antigua. It produced eight (8) named storms. Of the eight (8) storms, six (6) became hurricanes and two reached major hurricane status - category three (3) or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The strongest tropical cyclone for the season was Major Hurricane Gonzalo with peak winds of 145 mph and minimum pressure of 940 mb (see figure 2). Gonzalo impacted Antigua and Barbuda and most of the other northeast Caribbean islands causing loss of lives and 100s of millions of dollars in damage. Relative to Antigua and Barbuda Relative to Antigua and Barbuda, the rest of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands, two (2) tropical cyclones entered or formed in our defined monitored area (10N 40W – 10N 55W – 15N 70W – 20N 70W – 20N 55W – 15N 40W – 10N 40W) - Bertha and Gonzalo. Gonzalo impacted the northeast Caribbean with hurricane force winds, passing directly over Antigua, St. Martin and Anguilla. This is the first time since Jose in 1999, Antigua has had sustained hurricane force winds, ending our 14 year hurricane drought. In terms of number of named storms, it was not a quiet season for Antigua but rather an average one; however, with respect to hurricanes, we were a year over due since one affects us every three years on average.
    [Show full text]
  • Old Dominion University Study
    An Analysis of the Potential Costs and Consequences of a Hurricane Impacting the Virginia Beach-Norfolk- Newport News Metropolitan Area Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 3 The Research Collaborative ............................................................................................................. 4 Old Dominion University ................................................................................................................................. 4 Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy (The Dragas Center) ........................................................... 4 Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency (CCRFR) .............................................................. 4 Faculty and Research Staff Biographies and Qualifications ........................................................................4 Robert McNab ................................................................................................................................................. 4 Vinod Agarwal ................................................................................................................................................. 4 Barbara Blake .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Tim Komarek ..................................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • 13D.1 MESOSCALE PRECURSORS to the HURRICANE GASTON FLOODING EVENT AS DIAGNOSED from OBSERVATIONS and NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS
    13d.1 MESOSCALE PRECURSORS TO THE HURRICANE GASTON FLOODING EVENT AS DIAGNOSED FROM OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS Zachary G. Brown*1, M. L. Kaplan2, and Y.-L. Lin3 1Kentucky Mesonet, Bowling Green, Kentucky 2 Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada 3North Carolina A&T University, Greensboro, North Carolina 1. INTRODUCTION Freshwater flooding has been shown to be the leading cause of death in tropical cyclones (TCs) accounting for over half of the TC related deaths in the United States between 1970 and 1999 (Rappaport 2000). Recently, a greater understanding of the extratropical transition process (ET) has lead to better forecasts of TC flooding events. Comprehensive research on ET by Evans and Hart (2003), Hart and Evans (2001), Hart (2003), Klein et al. (2000, 2002), Harr and Elsberry (2000), Atallah and Bosart (2003, 2007) and numerous others has allowed forecasters to apply their understanding of quasi-geostrophic (QG) theory to more accurately predict where heavy rainfall will occur. However, rainfall forecasts have remained problematic for storms that do not undergo ET or remain too small for QG theory to apply. This study will use Hurricane Gaston (2004) to investigate the dynamics that drive heavy precipitation in these ―non- Figure 1 - NEXRAD base reflectivities (dBz in color) traditional‖ storms. from radar site AKQ with CAPE values from the -1 RUC20 (contours) plotted every 500 J kg at 1600 2. BACKGROUND AND OBSERVATIONS UTC on 30 August. Hurricane Gaston made landfall in South shown the heavy precipitation to have started as a line Carolina on 29 August, 2004, as a minimal Category 1 of supercells along a surface convergence zone slowly hurricane.
    [Show full text]
  • High-Resolution Hurricane Vector Winds from C-Band Dual-Polarization SAR Observations
    272 JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC TECHNOLOGY VOLUME 31 High-Resolution Hurricane Vector Winds from C-Band Dual-Polarization SAR Observations BIAO ZHANG School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China WILLIAM PERRIE Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada JUN A. ZHANG Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida ERIC W. UHLHORN NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida YIJUN HE School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China (Manuscript received 21 December 2012, in final form 1 November 2013) ABSTRACT This study presents a new approach for retrieving hurricane surface wind vectors utilizing C-band dual- polarization (VV, VH) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. The copolarized geophysical model function [C-band model 5.N (CMOD5.N)] and a new cross-polarized wind speed retrieval model for dual polarization [C-band cross-polarized ocean surface wind retrieval model for dual-polarization SAR (C-2POD)] are employed to construct a cost function. Minimization of the cost function allows optimum estimates for the wind speeds and directions. The wind direction ambiguities are removed using a parametric two-dimensional sea surface inflow angle model. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method, two RADARSAT-2 SAR images of Hurricanes Bill and Bertha are analyzed. The retrieved wind speeds and directions are compared with collocated Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds, showing good consis- tency. Results suggest that the proposed method has good potential to retrieve hurricane surface wind vectors from dual-polarization SAR observations.
    [Show full text]
  • 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Aug 15, 2014 This Seasonal Forecast Briefing Is the Third and Final Update
    WILLIS RE ANALYTICS eVENT™ 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Aug 15, 2014 This seasonal forecast briefing is the third and final update. In this briefing, we provide a summary of how the remainder of the hurricane season appears to be shaping up. Current situation Forecasts The 2014 North Atlantic hurricane has been Forecast skill is generally higher for forecasts issued part way through fairly average so far. The season got off to an the hurricane season due to shorter lead-time and the fact that some of early start with Tropical Storm Arthur the season has already passed. The major centers remain unanimous in attaining hurricane status over a month continuing to forecast below average activity (Table 1) with a slight before the long-term average date of the first nudge downward in forecast activity from their forecasts issued in early hurricane. Hurricane Bertha followed in early July. August and remained out over the open ocean where it re-curved toward Europe and caused The CSU forecast is based on their new early-August statistical significant flooding across the U.K. prediction scheme that is then moderated by the average activity in five analog years and some qualitative adjustment for factors not directly As we enter the peak of the hurricane season considered in their calculations. Their forecast for a quiet season is the storms to watch will be those that develop guided by cooler than normal ocean temperatures and higher than in the far eastern Atlantic just off the African normal wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, and a forecast for coast since these have greater potential to weak El Niño conditions throughout the remainder of the season.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008*
    MAY 2010 A N N U A L S U M M A R Y 1975 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008* DANIEL P. BROWN,JOHN L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, AND ERIC S. BLAKE NOAA/NWS/NCEP, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 27 July 2009, in final form 17 September 2009) ABSTRACT The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. Sixteen named storms formed in 2008. Of these, eight became hurricanes with five of them strengthening into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). There was also one tropical de- pression that did not attain tropical storm strength. These totals are above the long-term means of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2008 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced significant impacts from the Greater Antilles to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma hit Cuba, as did Tropical Storm Fay. Haiti was hit by Gustav and adversely affected by heavy rains from Fay, Ike, and Hanna. Paloma struck the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane, while Omar was a major hurricane when it passed near the northern Leeward Islands. Six con- secutive cyclones hit the United States, including Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, and Ike. The death toll from the Atlantic tropical cyclones is approximately 750. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2008 is also presented. Official track forecasts set records for accuracy at all lead times from 12 to 120 h, and forecast skill was also at record levels for all lead times.
    [Show full text]