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Quiet Hurricane Season Stretches Florida Streak by JENNY STALETOVICH November 30, 2014

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Quiet Hurricane Season Stretches Florida Streak by JENNY STALETOVICH November 30, 2014 Quiet hurricane season stretches Florida streak BY JENNY STALETOVICH November 30, 2014 The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends He also cautioned "even if the overall season is Sunday, extended Florida's increasingly remarkable suppressed, you can get a major hurricane if run: For the ninth straight year, the longest stretch on record, not a single hurricane struck the state. conditions are conducive for even a week." Andrew is the scariest example. It's the kind of lucky streak residents love and forecasters fear. The monster Category 5 storm of 1992 occurred in a year that produced just seven storms and only one Forecasters fret about growing public complacency. hurricane -- Andrew. But that one storm killed 44 Because when it comes to hurricanes in Florida, calm people, destroyed 63,000 homes and caused $25 never lasts. The longest previous respite lasted only billion in damage in Florida alone. five seasons, from 1980 to 1984. By contrast, the 2014 season wrapped up with eight "I would love to set another record next year ... but named storms. Six became hurricanes. Only one, that is not realistic," said National Hurricane Center Gonzalo, grew to a Category 4 storm -- the first in the spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "This remarkable streak Atlantic since 2011 -- but it remained far from the U.S. will come to an end, and we have to be prepared that coast. it could happen in 2015." In May, forecasters had predicted a slow season of The 2014 season also marked the second year that eight to 13 storms, with three to six becoming the Atlantic has remained relatively quiet, said Gerry hurricanes and only one or two strengthening to a Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National major storm with winds stronger than 111 mph. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. But forecasters were nervous coming off a 2013 prediction that overshot the season: they had That raises the question of whether the tropics are predicted an active season with up to 20 named finally easing into a less-active cycle after nearly a storms, between seven and 11 hurricanes, and up to decade of pumping out some of the busiest seasons six major hurricanes. But that year produced just 13 on record, including an all-time high of 28 named named storms. Only two, Humberto and Ingrid, storms in 2005. Florida was pummeled repeatedly in became hurricanes -- although Ingrid, along with 2004 and 2005. Tropical Storm Manuel, were blamed for 192 deaths in Mexico and damage estimated at $5.7 billion. "Is it possible we're coming out of this high-activity period? I don't know," Bell said. But the 2014 season, William Gray, the Colorado State University he said, could provide clues he'll be looking at. climatologist who pioneered preseason forecasts, called 2013 a bust, blaming the botched forecast on the collapse of a deep current called the Thermohaline Circulation. The current can carry denser, saltier water from the Earth's polar oceans The reason for the slow season stems primarily from and help fuel hurricanes. strong winds in the upper atmosphere that can pull apart a storm, Klotzbach said. "Last year was just a really tough forecast. It wasn't just us. Everybody busted badly. And this year "When you have that, you basically have a tug-of-war everyone did really well," said Philip Klotzbach, who on the storm," Klotzbach said. "It doesn't like to be works with Gray at the university's Tropical pulled in one direction and, higher up, tugged in Meteorology Project. another." This season got off to a boisterous start with Arthur, The monsoon season off West Africa, where Atlantic the first named storm, which strengthened to a hurricanes are born, was also mild, as expected. hurricane as it glided up the U.S. coast. By the time it made landfall, dashing Fourth of July celebrations in Those dominant climate patterns are typically what North Carolina, it had strengthened to a Category 2. forecasters rely on to predict a season. Another factor that regularly drives hurricanes in the Atlantic is the El On Aug. 1, Hurricane Bertha crossed the Lesser Niño pattern, a band of warm water that develops in Antilles as a sloppy, disorganized storm, but grew as the Pacific and can influence air pressure over the it trekked across the ocean and hit western Europe ocean. Early in the season, forecasters expected an with winds over 100 mph, triggering widespread El Niño to occur and help tamp down Atlantic storms. flooding. The pattern never developed, but the strong winds in the Atlantic's upper atmosphere turned out to be In late August, Hurricane Cristobal sprung up and enough. slammed Hispaniola, where four people drowned. Cristobal was blamed for another drowning in the This year's forecast was also aided by increasingly Turks and Caicos as well as two more off New Jersey sharp computer modeling, Bell said. In the past five and Maryland, where swimmers were lost to rip years, modeling has improved dramatically with currents. Dolly made landfall in Mexico as a tropical higher-powered computers. storm, but quickly fizzled in early September. Within a week, Edouard formed and grew to a Category 3 "They predict key things like wind shear," he said, hurricane. The storm remained far from shore but will referring to the upper- and lower-level winds that can be remembered for being the first into which NOAA tug apart a storm. They also produce finer details deployed unmanned drones. about atmospheric pressure, another crucial ingredient in a storm. Still, the models take time, and Fay followed, growing to a minimal Category 1 storm still don't work well enough to predict rapid and causing a mess in Bermuda, downing power lines intensification. and trees and triggered flooding. Just as the island was cleaning up, Gonzalo struck. The season's "Predicting these periods of rapid intensification is biggest storm, Gonzalo grew to a Category 4, but really a challenge," Bell said. "How do you say weakened to a Category 2 by the time it reached yesterday it's going to intensify in a day and a half? Bermuda. Hanna was the last tropical storm of the They want to be able to do that with much more lead season, soaking Nicaragua and Honduras in late time so they can alert people much better." October. Read more here: http://www.bradenton.com/2014/11/30/5505034_quiet- hurricane-season-stretches.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy .
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