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VOLUME 2, ISSUE 2 National Weather Service | San Juan, Puerto Rico

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VOLUME 2, ISSUE 2 National Weather Service | San Juan, Puerto Rico The Whispering Trades VOLUME 2, ISSUE 2 National Weather Service | San Juan, Puerto Rico DECEMBER 2014 From the Desk of the Meteorologist In Charge By: Roberto García Rico. These large swells, not only result in high “Happy Holidays!”As the Meteorologist-In- surf conditions, but could also result in coastal Charge of the National Weather flooding, beach erosion and deadly Rip Service Forecast Office in San Juan, Currents. Rip Currents are responsible for an Puerto Rico, it is always an honor to excess of 30 deaths across the U.S. Virgin serve the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Island Islands and Puerto Rico each year. Even residents and visitors. I believe we can all experienced and strong swimmers are not agree and be thankful that the 2014 exempt from being affected or even killed by hurricane season was significantly quiet for these treacherous submarine currents. In the eastern Caribbean. However, it was not trying to achieve our mission of saving lives and INSIDE THIS ISSUE: uneventful. We experienced the relatively protect property, here at the National Weather Preliminary 2014 minor impact of a developing tropical Service Forecast Office in San Juan, we 2 Hurricane Season cyclone, Tropical Storm Bertha during the continue to strive to provide timely and first week of August, whose associated effective advisories and warnings to our “The Surf Zone 3 rainfall turned out to be somewhat of a relief customers. This season, the beachgoers in Portugues Dam to the prevailing drought conditions during Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will be 4-5 the first half of 2014. We also experienced able to count on a new product, the Surf Zone dedicated in 2014 Climate Review for the threat of a major hurricane, Hurricane Forecast (SRF). With this product users will not 6-7 Gonzalo, which reminded us that even as only have access to expected weather PR and USVI late as mid-October; we can be threatened conditions on selected beaches across the U.S. Rip Currents 8 by one of these systems. Fortunately, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but also, and Gonzalo changed its path resulting in no most importantly, to Rip Current hazards. Of PR Drought 9 significant impact to our local area. The course, no amount of information, advisories Comittee Atlantic 2014 Hurricane Season is now over, or warnings would be effective if people do not and we are in our way to the driest and heed them. This year I invite you to celebrate Did You Know? 10 coolest portion of the year, December responsibly with your relatives and keep aware through March. During this part of the year, of the latest weather and beach conditions and we are more focused on the festivities and forecasts by visiting our webpage at weather conditions tend to be relegated to weather.gov/sju. You can reach us also through second place. However, this season is also our Facebook page at facebook.com/NWSSan the season when large northerly swells, Juan, and on Twitter at twitter.com/NWSSan generated by powerful North Atlantic winter Juan. I hope you find the following articles in storms, begin to reach and impact the north this 2014 winter (holiday) version of WFO San coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Juan Newsletter informative. The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue2 1 Preliminary 2014 Hurricane Season By: Gary Votaw Before the 2014 hurricane season began, various organizations forecasted how many hurricanes and tropical storms would occur. Table 1 shows the numbers as shown in our June newsletter but updated to include the numbers of storms that occurred (up to November 15) in each category. The forecasts were very good even though the expected primary reason for the below normal forecast (El Nino) has not quite developed. Figure 1 shows a preliminary tracking chart from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). There was one hurricane (Gonzalo) to affect the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Island forecast region this season, also one tropical storm (Bertha) and one strong tropical wave which eventually became Hurricane Cristobal once northeast of the Bahamas. It was the tropical wave that produced the most rainfall and flooding for Puerto Rico. Normal Met The Colorado Verified 2014 (seasonal NOAA Office Weather State (as of Nov. Table 1. Pre-hurricane season forecasts average) (U.K.) Channel University 15) updated with verifica- Named storms 12 8-13 7-13 11 9 8 tion (as of Nov. 15). Hurricanes 6 3-6 3-9 5 3 6 Major Hurricanes 3 1-2 2 1 2 Bertha resulted in so most of the islands Bahamas late in August. That was several days after the tropical storm watches received rainfall of less center of the wave passed the local islands without much and warnings issued than two inches, wind but it carried copious amounts of moisture which for the local area from which also limited the induced heavy rainfall. This wave created the most July 31 to August 2. It strength of the storm. widespread three-day heavy rainfall and flooding of the produced wind gusts However the interior season. The heaviest rains occurred on the southern reaching well into of mainland Puerto Puerto Rico mountains and south facing slopes. The tropical storm force, Rico recorded some highest recorded rain was 13.21 inches on the Rio especially over the very high two-day Portugues near Tibes and 9.94 inches of that occurring on U.S. Virgin Islands, rainfall totals with the the 24th and more than five inches occurred on St. Culebra and Vieques, highest at 11.11 inches Thomas. with a maximum of 67 at Lago Adjuntas near mph recorded at Buoy Adjuntas. A tropical Hurricane Gonzalo was the strongest system to pass 41051 which is south wave developed into through the San Juan forecast area this season. Tropical of St. Thomas. Hurricane Cristobal storm watches and warnings were issued for Puerto Rico Moisture in Bertha while moving and the U.S. Virgin Islands when it was still well east of the was relatively limited northward, east of the Leeward Islands. Warnings were in effect from Oct. 12 until very early on Oct. 14 but a hurricane watch was issued Atlantic Ocean 2014 fromin NHC. 1.FigurePreliminary TrackingChart for concurrently for the entire area. The only local islands to later have a hurricane warning were St. Thomas and St. John, valid on Monday the 13th which extended into that night. Radar and satellite sensors suggested strong winds as it passed just northeast of Anegada Monday night and then later into the northeast corner of San Juan National Weather Service Forecast Office’s marine zone AMZ710. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft estimated that the hurricane approached major hurricane status (111 mph) as it moved into the open Atlantic that night. Gonzalo was gratefully a near miss for the local area. The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 2 2 NWS San Juan launches a new beach forecast: “The Surf Zone Forecast” By: Ernesto Rodriguez The local swell season Weather Service Forecast lifeguards and emergency including: National started on November 1st Office in San Juan began managers. The SRF Weather Service and extends until April issuing the Surf Zone product includes the Forecast Office in San 30th. During this season, Forecast for 15 beaches in following information for Juan (NWS-SJU), long period swells affect Puerto Rico and U.S. selected beaches in Caribbean Coastal Ocean our regional waters Virgin Islands on Puerto Rico and U.S. Observing System several times each November 1st, 2014. This Virgin Islands: location, (CariCOOS) and Sea month. Although, surfers product is issued daily. breaking wave height, rip Grant Puerto Rico. love these swells, beach current risk and forecasts In summary, before you goers are at risk due to The Surf Zone Forecast for wind, weather and venture out to the the accompanying rip (SRF) provides valuable temperature. Rip current beach, check the latest currents. These wave and life-saving risk in the Surf Zone Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) induced currents, result information, pertaining to Forecast uses the at http:// in at least 30 reported hazards in the surf zone, following 3-tiered text go.usa.gov/7U9G deaths a year in Puerto to the beachfront qualifiers: low risk, Rico and U.S. Virgin community, including the moderate risk and high Islands. In order to general public and risk. This effort is the achieve our mission of providers of beachfront result of the collaboration saving lives, the National safety services, such as among NOAA partners The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 2 3 Portugues Dam is “dedicated” and filled in 2014 By: Althea Austin-Smith The Portugues Dam, which is located in Southern Puerto Rico, just north of Ponce was completed and a dedication ceremony was held Feb. 5th, 2014. The CORPS of Engineers designed this 220 foot, roller compacted concrete (RCC) dam to reduce the impacts of flooding along the Portugues River. http://media.dma.mil/2014/Feb/12/2000779395/-1/-1/0/140205- A-HQ290-002.JPG - (Photo by John H. Campbell) Construction was officially completed in December 2013, and the next hurdle was the filling of the dam in order to move into the operational testing phase. The question was how to get “Mother Nature” to provide the rainfall needed to fill the dam. The answer was in a tropical wave that moved through the region toward the end of August which eventually became Hurricane Cristobal after passing through our forecast area.
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