Policing 2020

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Policing 2020 Policing 2020: Exploring the Future of Crime, Communities, and Policing Edited by Joseph A. Schafer 1 To Ellie & Andrew For whom the future holds unlimited promise. To Harjit Sidhu 7/22/74 – 12/02/86 Whose future was tragically stolen. And to Shelby My past, present, and future. 2 Policing 2020: Exploring the Future of Crime, Communities, and Policing Table of Contents Acknowledgements .............................................................................................5 About the Authors ................................................................................................9 Chapter One Thinking About the Future of Policing Joseph A. Schafer .............................................................................................13 Chapter Two The World of 2020: Demographic Shifts, Cultural Change, and Social Challenge Carl J. Jensen & Bernard H. Levin ....................................................................31 Chapter Three Information Age Technology and Network Centric Policing Thomas J. Cowper ............................................................................................71 Chapter Four Crime in 2020 George Burruss ...............................................................................................104 Chapter Five The Future of Law Enforcement Communications By Susan Braunstein .......................................................................................133 Chapter Six The Patrol Function in the Future – One Vision James A. Conser & Gordon G. Frissora ........................................................173 Chapter Seven The Future of Investigations Alan Youngs ....................................................................................................209 3 Chapter Eight The Future of Law Enforcement Intelligence David L. Carter & Joseph A. Schafer ..............................................................226 Chapter Nine Police Information Management Sean P. Varano, Jeffrey M. Cancino, James Glass, & Roger Enriquez ........257 Chapter Ten Emergency Response Planning: The Practicalities Alan Beckley ....................................................................................................299 Chapter Eleven The Changing Landscape of American Police Organizations Edward R. Maguire & William R. King ............................................................337 Chapter Twelve The Future of Education and Training for Policing Joseph A. Schafer & Sandy Boyd ...................................................................372 Chapter Thirteen Human Capital In Policing: What Works, What Doesn’t Work, What’s Promising? Bernard H. Levin .............................................................................................414 Chapter Fourteen Third-Party Policing: Futures and Evolutions Michael Buerger ..............................................................................................452 Chapter Fifteen From Pyramids to Networks: Police Structure and Leadership in 2020 Richard W. Myers ............................................................................................487 4 Acknowledgements This book is the product of the hard work, dedication, and intellect of a cast of characters who offered their time, energy, and passion in thinking about the future of policing. I approached each contributor with the request to think about a specific dimension of policing and how that dimension will change during the next 15 years. The product is this book—a collection of chapters considering that state of policing in 2020 and how we will arrive at that point in time. All of the contributors freely gave of their time, receiving no compensation other than my thanks and the knowledge that their chapter might influence policing in a positive manner. This book would not have been possible without the many efforts of Supervisory Special Agent Dr. Carl Jensen III (Federal Bureau of Investigation) and Dr. Bernard “Bud” Levin (Blue Ridge Community College and Waynesboro, VA, Police Department). In the summer of 2004, I received a call from Carl and Bud asking me to help bring a “little” project to fruition. Over the past two years, they have provided invaluable insight, guidance, support, and advocacy for this project. Without their vision and hard work, you would not be reading this book. They deserve much of the credit, but none of the blame, for the book’s contents. Carl and Bud have done much to advance futures research in policing and have served as the fearless leaders of the Futures Working Group. I know I speak for my fellow “FWGers” when I thank them for all they have done on our behalf. Further thanks to Dr. John Jarvis (Federal Bureau of Investigation) for patiently and skillfully stewarding this project through the editorial and production processes. Policing 2020 is largely a product of Police Futurist International (PFI) and the Futures Working Group (FWG), a collaborative partnership between PFI and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. PFI was created in 1991 after a decade of work and visionary 5 leadership. Founded by then-Supervisory Special Agent Dr. William Tafoya (FBI), PFI was established to advance the study of how future issues will impact on policing. In the spring of 2002, PFI signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the FBI to create the Futures Working Group. The mission of the FWG is “to develop and encourage others to develop forecasts and strategies to ethically maximize the effectiveness of local, state, federal, and international law enforcement bodies as they strive to maintain peace and security in the 21st century.” As a part of that mission, FWG seeks to create and disseminate knowledge that will enhance the future development of policing. This book is one example of such efforts. My thanks to the FBI for supporting FWG by agreeing to publish this text. I am grateful to Chief Phillip Broadfoot (Danville, VA, Police Department) for the helpful insights he offered during the book’s early stages. Thanks to the members of the FWG for the insights, ideas, energy, and humor they shared throughout the process of developing the book. Special thanks to Jeff Cancino, Beth Huebner, Thomas Martinelli, Sean Varano and William Wells for their years of friendship, support, and collaboration. The chapters were written by a dedicated, hard-working, and patient set of professionals from varied backgrounds. They dedicated long hours, endured my pestering, and produced quality insights, all from the goodness of their hearts. This book was also greatly aided by the efforts of a hard-working set of volunteers who reviewed and commented on early drafts of the manuscript. Some are members of PFI, others are not. Some come from a background in policing, others from academia. Some are long-time associates, others are new friends. All provided valuable insight and input to help the authors develop and effectively deliver their ideas. Thank you for your tireless efforts. Reviewers included: 6 Dr. Sandy Boyd, College of Marin† Dr. Susan Braunstein, Barry University Thomas Cowper, police executive † Dr. Chuck Cychosz, Ames (IA) Police Department Dr. Stephen Hennessey, St. Cloud State University* Dr. Sameer Hinduja, Florida Atlantic University Dr. Beth Huebner, University of Missouri- St. Louis Lt. Geoff Huff, Ames (IA) Police Department Dr. John Jarvis, Federal Bureau of Investigation and Futures Working Group chair† Supervisory Special Agent Dr. Carl Jensen III, Federal Bureau of Investigation and past Futures Working Group chair† Stephanie Kennerley Capt. Gerald Konkler, Tulsa (OK) Police Department (Ret.)* † Dr. Brandon Kooi, Lakeland College Dr. Bernard Levin, Blue Ridge Community College, Waynesboro (VA) Police Department, and Futures Working Group vice-chair† Merle Manzi, Florida Department of Law Enforcement (Ret.) Thomas J. Martinelli, Ferris State University Chief Alberto Melis, Waco (TX) Police Department† Assistant Commissioner R. Earl Moulton, Royal Canadian Mounted Police (Ret.) Chief Richard Myers, Appleton (WI) Police Department*† Dr. Andreas “Olli” Olligschlaeger, TruNorth Data Systems† Dr. Justin Patchin, University of Wisconsin- Eau Claire Chief Alicia Powers, Hercules (CA) Police Department (Ret.)* Chief Todd Sigler, Southern Illinois University Police Department Dr. William Tafoya, Federal Bureau of Investigation (Ret.) & University of New Haven Dr. Sean Varano, Northeastern University Division Chief Al Youngs, Lakewood (CO) Police Department (Ret.)* † * Past-president, Society of Police Futurist International † Member, Futures Working Group Special thanks to my parents, Grace and John, who encouraged my curiosity, taught me perseverance, cultivated my love of writing, and tolerated my long-standing fascination with policing (despite wanting to see me doing something a bit safer). Finally, love and thanks to my wife, Shelby, and our children, Ellie & Andrew. All three continue to endure my self-imposed demands and supported me throughout this and other projects. Once again, I am in your debt for the love, patience, and encouragement you continue to provide. 7 A Note on Internet Resources and Products Mentioned Chapter contributors have drawn upon a wide range of information to develop and support their work. This includes the use of resources available on the internet. Web addresses (URLs) are found in many reference lists. These addresses were current at the time contributors finalized their chapters. The dynamic nature of the internet means that, unfortunately, some sources will not be found at the
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