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Annual Public Debt Report 2011-2012 Message from the Minister for Finance

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Annual Public Debt Report 2011-2012 Message from the Minister for Finance REPUBLIC OF KENYA MINISTRY OF FINANCE ANNUAL PUBLIC DEBT REPORT JULY 2011 – JUNE 2012 December 2012 MINISTER FOR FINANCE Hon. Robinson Njeru Githae, EGH, MP PERMANENT SECRETARY Joseph K. Kinyua, CBS FINANCIAL SECRETARY Mutua Kilaka, SS, CBS DIRECTOR OF DEBT MANAGEMENT John K. Murugu, OGW TECHNICAL TEAM Felister Kivisi Stella Osoro Faith Njau Charles Kairu Benard Gibet Lawrence Okwaro George Kariuki Denis Okungu Leonard Thotho Racheal Njoroge Robert Osudi The Public Debt Report is an annual publication of the Ministry of Finance. Repro- duction in full or in part is permitted provided due acknowledgement of the source is made. This Report is available on the Treasury website www.treasury.go.ke. Other reports that may be downloaded include the Monthly Debt Bulletin and the Quarterly Eco- nomic and Budgetary Review (QEBR). The Central Bank’s website www.centralbank. go.ke hosts the Monthly Economic Review and Weekly Bulletin. Enquiries covering the publication should be addressed to: The Director, Debt Management Department, First Floor, Treasury Building, Harambee Avenue P.O. Box 30007-00100, Nairobi, Kenya Tel: (254) 20 2252299 Fax: (254) 20 315294 Email: [email protected] Table of Contents Message from the Minister for Finance iv Message from the Permanent Secretary v List of Abbreviations vi Executive Summary vii Introduction 1 1. Financing of Budget Deficit 2 2. Domestic Debt 8 3. External Debt 19 4. Publicly Guaranteed Debt 24 5. On-Lent Loans and Contingent Liabilities 27 6. Disputed External Commercial Debt 30 7. Debt Strategy and Debt Sustainability 33 8. Reforms in Public Debt Management 37 9. Outlook for the Medium Term 40 Glossary 42 Appendices 46 iii Annual Public Debt Report 2011-2012 Message from the Minister for Finance Kenya’s economy has maintained a steady path over the years despite strong domestic demand and a number of external pressures such as the global finan- cial crisis and the debt crisis. In terms of public debt management, the country’s debt has and continues to be sustainable in the medium term. This is line with the Millennium Development Goal 8, target 8D on debt sustainability and the country’s Vision 2030 under the Economic Pillar. The Government’s Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) entails raising resourc- es through borrowing to meet central government budgetary requirements at minimum cost whilst maintaining a prudent level of risk. It also involves pro- moting the development of domestic debt markets. The Government borrow- ing requirement and the level of public debt have been consistent with the overall fiscal framework supporting macro-economic stability for sustainable growth over the medium term. This 2012 Annual Public Debt Report presents an overview of debt develop- ments during the fiscal year. In nominal terms, debt levels have been increas- ing but as a percentage of GDP, reduced from 53 per cent to 49 per cent during the period under review. The Government policy however is to achieve a public debt level of 45 per cent of GDP in the medium term. The foregoing outcome in terms of debt management did not come without challenges. For instance, volatility in the money market and investor uncertainty constrained domestic borrowing during the fiscal year. The 2010 Constitution that Kenya has started to implement overhauls the form of governance and introduces fiscal devolution. In this regard, the Public Finance Management (PFM) Law has ushered in a new era in public debt management that will entrench and promote prudent and sound debt management practic- es for both Central and County Governments with an aim to enhance efficiency and transparency. The PFM has repealed all earlier legislations on domestic and external government borrowing. Hon. Robinson Njeru Githae, EGH, MP Minister for Finance Annual Public Debt Report 2011-2012 iv Message from the Permanent Secretary This 7th Annual Public Debt Report provides detailed information on the status, general developments and the medium term outlook of the country’s public debt. Kenya’s public debt consists of both domestic and external components. In gross terms, total debt increased to Ksh 1,622,801 million representing 49.5 per cent of GDP in June 2012 from Ksh 1,487,110 million which was 53.4 per cent of GDP in June 2011. The domestic component grew to Ksh 858,830 million which is equiv- alent to 26.2 per cent of GDP in June 2012 compared to Ksh 764,222 million or 27.4 per cent of GDP in June 2011. The external component also increased by Ksh 41,083 million in June 2012 to Ksh 763,971 million over the same period. As a per- centage of GDP, external debt decreased from 25.9 per cent to 23.3 per cent. As a percentage of revenue, total debt service declined to 15.5 per cent in June 2012 from 16.5 per cent in June 2011. In nominal terms under the domestic debt component, there was slight increase in debt service attributed to high interest rates in the domestic market particularly during the first half of the financial year. During the period under review, domestic borrowing was constrained by the vol- atility in the money market interest rates and investor uncertainty occasioned by high inflation and weakening of the shilling. Consequently, there was under subscription of Treasury Bills and bonds in the auction markets for Government securities. Following this development, Government sought alternative sources of funding by way of a syndicated loan of up to Ksh 51.3 billion to substitute the shortfall in domestic borrowing. In the medium term outlook, overall public debt is projected to rise in nominal terms to Ksh 1,882,900 million in June 2013 from Ksh 1,622,801 million in June 2012 and later increase to Ksh 2,414,600 million in June 2016. However, as a pro- portion of GDP, public debt in nominal terms is projected to decrease from 49.5 per cent in June 2012 to 43.9 per cent in June 2016. This is in line with Government strategy of reducing debt to GDP to below 45 per cent in the medium term. The Ministry of Finance is the process of drawing up the regulations to reorganize the institutional structure of the Treasury including the setting up of the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) as established by the Public Finance Manage- ment Law. The objective of establishing the PDMO is to ensure prudent and sound debt management in accordance with best practice. Joseph K. Kinyua, CBS Permanent Secretary/Treasury v Annual Public Debt Report 2011-2012 List of Abbreviations ADB African Development Bank KBC Kenya Broadcasting Corporation ADF African Development Fund KenGen Kenya Electricity Generating Company A-I-A Appropriation in Aid MEFMI Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and CBK Central Bank of Kenya Southern Africa CCN City Council of Nairobi MLF Market Leaders’ Forum CDS Central Depository System MODM Monetary Operations and Debt CMA Capital Markets Authority Management Department COMSEC Commonwealth Secretariat MOF Ministry of Finance CPIA Country Policy and Institutional MT Medium Term Assessment MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework CS-DRMS Commonwealth Secretariat Debt NBFI Non Bank Financial Institution Recording and Management System NPV Net Present Value CSD Central Securities Depository NSE Nairobi Securities Exchange DGIPE Department of Government NSSF National Social Security Fund Investment and Public Enterprises ODA Official Development Assistance DMD Debt Management Department OECD Organization for Economic PDMO Public Debt Management Office Co-operation and Development DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis OTC Over the Counter DSF Debt Sustainability Framework PA Payment Advice DX Domestic Currency PD Primary Dealers ECB European Central Bank PFMB Public Financial Management Bill EEC European Economic Commission PMG Pay Master General EIB European Investment Bank PPG Public and Publicly Guaranteed ERD External Resources Department PV Present Value EUROSTAT European Union Statistical Agency PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers FLSTAP Financial and Legal Sector Technical QEBR Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Assistance Project Review FX Foreign Currency SDB Savings Development Bond FXD Fixed Discounted Treasury Bonds SDR Special Drawing Rights GDP Gross Domestic Product SFX Restructuring Treasury Bonds GoK Government of Kenya ST Short Term GSMM Government Securities Market Makers SWIFT Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries TDS Total Debt Service IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development TARDA Tana and Athi River Development Authority IDA International Development Association TEDS Total External Debt Service IFB Infrastructure Bond UK United Kingdom IFC International Finance Corporation USA United States of America IMF International Monetary Fund USD US Dollar JPY Japanese Yen YTM Yield to Maturity KACC Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission Annual Public Debt Report 2011-2012 vi Executive Summary The principal objective of Kenya’s public debt management is to meet the Central Government financing requirements at the least cost with a prudent degree of risk while the secondary objective is to facilitate Gov- ernment’s access to financial markets and support development of a well- functioning vibrant domestic debt market. In this regard, the Government through the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank is committed to pursuing prudent debt management strat- egies aimed at ensuring that public debt remains within sustainability thresholds. The strategy is outlined in the 2012 Medium Term Debt Strat- egy (MTDS) published in June 2012 which is subject to annual updates. The medium term strategy is to lower the level of public and publicly guar- anteed debt to 45 percent of GDP and this entails adherence to prudent debt management and a reduction in the overall fiscal deficit to below 5 percent from the current level of over 6 percent. Kenya’s total public debt increased to Ksh 1,622,801 million or 49.5 per cent of GDP in June 2012 from Ksh 1,487,110 million or 53.4 per cent of GDP in June 2011.
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