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In This ISSUE... China's Property Market, on Which ISSUE 319a | 30 APRIL–6 MAY 2011 CONTENTs IN THis issue... STOCK REVIEWS STOCK ASX CODE RecoMMENdaTioN PAGE APN News & Media APN Coverage Ceased 6 Nathan Bell CFA Fairfax Media FXJ Coverage Ceased 6 China’s property market, on which Australia’s resource sector, Foster’s Group FGL Hold 7 exports and strong currency rests, appears more bubble than West Aust. Newspaper WAN Coverage Ceased 6 supercycle... (see page 2) stock UPDAtes ANZ Bank ANZ Sell 9 Aristocrat Leisure ALL Buy 9 Carnavon Petroleum CVN Speculative Buy 10 Gaurav Sodhi Computershare CPU Hold 10 Why, in the midst of the greatest commodities boom in history, do Westpac Bank WBC Hold 10 we have only a handful of positive resource stock recommendations? feAtuRES Gaurav Sodhi explains... (see page 4) Director’s Cut: Chinese bubble trouble 2 The commodities conundrum 4 Notes from the Berkshire Hathaway 2011 annual meeting 11 Nathan Bell CFA extRAS The newspaper industry is shrinking into decline. Despite Blog site links 12 newspaper stocks suffering large share price falls recently, value Podcast links 12 remains elusive... (see page 6) Twitter site links 13 Ask the Experts Q&A 13 Important information 14 Gareth Brown RecomMenDATIon chAnges The demerger is good news for Foster’s beer business. But there Aristocrat Leisure upgraded from Long Term Buy to Buy are some looming threats to its incredible margins... (see page 6) PORTFOLIO CHANGES There are no recent portfolio transactions Greg Hoffman Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger provided plenty of food for thought for Australian investors at the weekend. Early on Buffett mentioned that Berkshire had made around $100m on foreign exchange transactions in 2010 in just two currencies... (see page 11) The Intelligent Investor China’s property market, on which Australia’s resource sector, exports and strong KEY poiNTS currency rests, appears more bubble than supercycle. China/resources supercycle looks like a bubble Prepare for every possible outcome now By Chinese standards, Ordos isn’t a big city. Situated in Inner Mongolia, a long way from the coastal plains where the apartment construction boom first took hold, it’s a vivid Diversify overseas, buy high quality stocks, minimise speculative exposures reminder of where, even in the remote interior of a vast country, the fortunes of Australian resources companies rest. Cities of this size usually take centuries to evolve. Ordos was built in a few years. Subdivisions, littered with duplexes more Californian than Mongolian, pepper the landscape. There are government and commercial office towers, apartment blocks, public libraries and a museum beautiful enough to grace any European city. Only one thing is missing: inhabitants. Ordos is a ghost town, a city without life and in no way unique. Even in China’s biggest cities, huge numbers of buildings lie vacant. On the morning of a solar eclipse, a Chinese university professor rode his bicycle through the streets of Beijing. Amid the smog and gloom, he noticed something rather odd: Many of the office skyscrapers he passed were unlit. They too were vacant. The South China Mall, east of Guangzhou, is the second biggest in the world by gross leasable area. Only 1% is occupied. The parking lot, untroubled by vehicles, now features an impromptu go-kart racing track. No one shops in malls like these because no one lives in the nearby apartments. In a six-month period, it was reported that 65 million homes, enough to house perhaps 200 million people, didn’t use any electricity at all. The authorities, which don’t maintain official statistics on vacancy rates, at least not publicly, deny these figures. And yet the anecdotal evidence is plentiful. One only has to look. In a centrally planned economy, these bridges to nowhere could be officially mandated over-supply but a more coherent explanation looms: The Chinese have turned their construction sector into a casino, taking Australian resources stocks with it. Companies that once made shoes now develop real estate. State owned enterprises that mined salt now build office parks. Housemaids are getting ‘divorced’ to buy second apartments. All the signs are there: China has the hallmarks of a vast, speculative bubble. The statistics, scant as they are, offer more conclusive evidence. Vitaliy Katsenelson, Chief Investment Officer with Investment Management Associates, claims that at the height of the Japanese property bubble, the housing affordability ratio, calculated by dividing the property price by annual disposable income, was nine times. In Beijing that ratio is now 14. In Shanghai it’s 12. At the peak of the US housing boom, property investment as a percentage of GDP never exceeded 6%. During the Japanese speculative frenzy it reached 9%. In 2009 in China it was 10%. Even real estate developers—presumably not those that once made shoes—think Chinese real estate is a bubble. Stronger for longer? In a crushing blow to the purveyors of the stronger-for-longer position, only the Economist Intelligence Unit disagree with the bubble argument. In a report titled Building Rome in a Day, the EIU says, ‘there are few signs that the seemingly insatiable appetite of Chinese consumers for bigger and better housing will slow substantially.’ No, no signs at all. As long as everyone keeps on buying houses rather than actually living in them, everything will be just fine. China, perhaps more so than the US in 2006 or Japan in the late eighties, is ripe for a 2 Weekly Review | Issue 319a misallocation of resources on a truly astonishing scale. Statistics are unreliable; corruption is rife; local governments, which don’t levy property taxes, earn revenue from land sales; officialdom is distant and unaccountable; and there is no independent media. There exists in China every incentive for self-delusion, to pretend that this time, it really is different and no channel through which that view can be challenged. In Australia, for reasons no more edifying than simple self-interest, we seem happy to tag along. The managements of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, and just about every other miner making out on Chinese demand for resources, head the list of local China cheerleaders. But one man’s supercycle is another man’s bubble. If you must play with it—and we’d advise against it—do so with intelligence rather than greed. The diversified miners like BHP and Rio Tinto are sitting on vast cash piles and typically produce high volumes at low cost. But the stocks getting all the (speculative) attention—Sandfire Resources, Lynas Corporation and CuDeco for example—lack the diversity and asset quality of the giants. If the bubble does burst in the next few years, these are the sort of stocks that will be savaged. The big miners will be whacked too, but they will survive and, when China’s industrialisation resumes, which it almost certainly will, are well positioned to prosper once more. If, like many of your analysts, you wish to steer clear of these stocks altogether, consider acting on some of the themes regularly featured in this column: hold cash; build your holdings in defensive stocks like Woolworths, Metcash and Westfield Group (see our buy list for more); look for local companies with good overseas earnings (like News Corp and QBE Insurance); and consider international diversification in countries where stocks are cheap, like the US and Europe, rather than expensive (a podcast interview with There are other manifold Templeton Global Growth Fund portfolio manager Peter Wilmshurst due to be published soon discusses the current opportunities in the US and Europe). worries—there always are—but If international diversification appeals, please don’t subscribe to a poor product like China’s property bubble is Exchange Traded International Securities. Gareth Brown’s scathing review reveals how vital a bigger threat to Australia information can be manipulated and disguised to disadvantage investors, and still be well and its investors, than it is for within the law. Frankly, it shouldn’t be allowed. Gaurav Sodhi made an original and compelling argument in The Case for LNG Part 1 almost any other country. (see issue 317), suggesting that renewables and nuclear wouldn’t replace oil as the energy of the future. Instead, liquid petroleum gas would. Part II reiterated a couple of current buy recommendations and unearthed two potentially attractive stocks. Expect more research on those soon. Complex affair Investing is becoming an ever more complex affair, made more taxing by demergers, buybacks and share issues. The documents accompanying these proposals are truly terrifying, which is why in recent weeks we’ve allocated analytical resources to making sense of them. The upshot has been Foster’s demerger survival guide (see issue 317), where we’re hopeful of an opportunity to buy the wine business after listing, the JB-Hi Fi buyback (see issue 318) which, in the way of the BHP Buyback calculator (see issue 316), also featured a useful spreadsheet. Members seem to appreciate this service and we hope to deliver more of it, where appropriate, in the future. Ultimately, though, our primary role is to bring you well-researched, profitable new stock ideas. This month, while we haven’t published any new opportunities, we have a number in the works. But we have reiterated a few current buys. A good example was Eight reasons to buy Westfield (see issue 318) and Westfield Retail Trust on Sale (see issue 317) by yours truly, and Macquarie Group, which investors now seem to be pricing as a utility-orientated dividend play. All are worth reading if you haven’t yet done so. The first two especially, along with Woolworths and Metcash and Newscorp, have attractive defensive qualities. In the event of a China-induced currency collapse, they should fare better than most.
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