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31 July 2013 REGIONAL DAILY December 26, 2012 MALAYSIA Malaysia Daybreak | 31 July 2013 Key Metrics ▌What’s on the Table… —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— FBMKLCI Index Cuscapi - Time to REV up 1,850 Last week, we arranged a meeting for institutional funds to meet up with 1,800 Cuscapi’s management. There were some positive surprises for us at the 1,750 meeting. Investors thought the company’s new interactive tablet, REV, has 1,700 great potential but execution would be the key factor. We maintain our 1,650 Outperform call and target price of RM0.54, based on 21x 2014 P/E, its 2-year 1,600 average forward P/E. Its P/E premium over the market is backed by a 37.2% 1,550 3-year EPS CAGR. Migration to the Main Board in Aug and stronger demand Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 for REV should provide re-rating catalysts. ——————————————————————————— Perisai Petroleum - Crossing the Rubicon(e)? FBMKLCI 1795.08 -3.70pts -0.21% While a decision on a contract extension for Perisai's MOPU Rubicone has yet JUL Futures AUG Futures 1797.5 - (-0.11%) 1799 - (1.00%) to be reached, we think that the odds of at least a 1-year extension are positive ——————————————————————————— after meeting with management yesterday. But in the event of a non-extension, Gainers Losers Unchanged there is no shortage of regional jobs. Separately, Perisai is set to make its 299 436 323 ——————————————————————————— maiden moves into the FPSO and drilling segments. We continue to value the Turnover stock at 15.6x CY14 P/E, a 30% discount to the average P/E of oil & gas big-caps. 2145.87m shares / RM2072.731m Perisai remains an Outperform and our top pick in the small-cap oil & gas space. 3m avg volume traded 1809.53m shares 3m avg value traded RM2355.96m Successful FPSO and drilling ventures are potential re-rating catalysts. ——————————————————————————— Regional Indices IGB REIT - Mid Valley delivers FBMKLCI FSSTI JCI SET HSI 1,795 3,245 4,608 1,435 21,954 IGB REIT performed to expectations, with 1H13 core net profit coming in at ———————————————————————————————— 51% of our full-year forecast and 49% of consensus estimates. Rental reversions Market Indices Close % chg YTD % chg are coming up for half of The Gardens Mall’s NLA by 3Q13, pointing to earnings FBMKLCI 1,795.08 (0.2) 6.3 growth in FY14. This is the main catalyst supporting our unchanged FBM100 12,250.26 (0.2) 8.4 FBMSC 15,178.68 (0.5) 32.2 Outperform rating. We also retain our DDM-based target price of RM1.59 FBMMES 5,047.25 (0.6) 19.8 which is based on a WACC of 7.5%. Dow Jones 15,520.59 (0.0) 18.4 NASDAQ 3,616.47 0.5 19.8 FSSTI 3,245.45 0.3 2.5 FTSE-100 6,570.95 0.2 11.4 ▌News of the Day… Hang Seng 21,953.96 0.5 (3.1) —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— JCI 4,608.49 0.6 6.8 KOSPI 1,917.05 0.9 (4.0) • Fitch revises Malaysia's outlook to negative Nikkei 225 13,869.82 1.5 33.4 • Petronas delays RM60bn petrochemical project to 2018 PCOMP 6,728.00 0.2 15.7 SET 1,435.44 (1.3) 3.1 • U&W gets Bursa approval for listing its oil and gas unit Shanghai 1,990.06 0.7 (12.3) • Palm oil group hails French pledge Taiwan 8,163.55 1.0 6.0 • Vincent Tan targets UK car dealer Top Actives • Media Prima signs licensing agreement with Paramount Pictures Close % chg Vol. (m) SONA PETROLEUM B 0.445 - 401.5 • Debutant Sona dominates trading LUSTER INDUSTRIE 0.100 0.0 55.5 MEDIA SHOPPE BHD 0.075 0.0 43.9 MALAYSIAN AIRLIN 0.310 0.0 35.5 FLONIC HI-TEC 0.120 (7.7) 29.9 CIMB GROUP HOLDI 8.150 (1.9) 24.0 CHINA STATIONERY 0.275 0.0 21.3 TH HEAVY ENGINEE 0.850 (0.6) 17.9 Economic Statistics Close % chg US$/Euro 1.3262 (0.01) RM/US$ (Spot) 3.2255 (0.06) RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 3.3095 0.18 OPR (% ) 2.99 1.36 BLR (% , CIMB Bank) 6.60 0.00 GOLD ( US$/oz) 1,328 0.09 WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 103.08 (1.41) CPO spot price (RM/tonne) (0.84) 2,241 ———————————————————————————————————————— Terence WONG CFA T (60) 3 20849689 E [email protected] Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Daybreak Malaysia July 31, 2013 Global Economic News… The US S&P/Case-Shiller house price index rose 1.0% mom in May from a revised 1.7% in Apr, underperforming consensus of 1.3%. On a non-seasonally adjusted yoy basis, the index gained 12.2% from a revised 12.1% in Apr, again undershooting consensus of 12.3%. (Bloomberg) The US Conference Board consumer confidence index dipped to 80.3 in Jul from a revised 82.1 in Jun, underperforming consensus of 81.0. (Bloomberg) Eurozone’s economic confidence index improved to 92.5, the highest since Apr last year, from 91.3 in Jun. Sentiment in the industrial sector rose to -10.6 from -11.2 in Jun, whilst the services confidence index rose to -7.8 from -9.6 a month ago. The consumer confidence indicator climbed to -17.4 from -18.8 last month. (RTT News) The People’s Bank of China said it had injected Rmb17bn, or US$2.8bn, in the form of seven-day reverse repurchase agreements into the domestic banking system yesterday after a liquidity squeeze rocked financial markets in the world's second-largest economy last month. This was the first such move since Feb. (AFP) China's economy will continue to grow at a steady rate during the 2H13 despite "extremely complicated domestic and international conditions", the government said yesterday. Leaders of China will "coordinate the tasks of stabilising growth, restructuring the economy and promoting reforms", according to a statement from the Political Bureau of the Communist Party's Central Committee. "Macro policy should be stable, micro policy should be flexible and social policy should support the bottom line. All of them should be coordinated," it said. (Financial Daily) Japan’s household spending fell 0.4% yoy in Jun (-1.6% in May). Economists were looking for a 1.4% gain. Industrial production fell 3.3% mom in Jun (+1.9% in May). Economists were expecting a reading of -1.5%. (Business Insider) Japan’s vehicle output dropped 9.5% yoy in Jun (-6.2% in May). Driving the downturn, passenger car production fell 11.1%, and production of trucks edged down 0.7%. These declines were partially offset by an 11.8% gain in the manufacture of buses. (RTT News) South Korea's current account showed a surplus of US$7.24bn in Jun, down from a record high of US$8.64bn in May due to a slight dip in exports. Jun figure took the cumulative surplus for the 1H13 to US$29.7bn. (Bloomberg) South Korea's industrial production dropped 2.6% yoy in Jun (-1.3% in May), worse than market's expectations of a 1.1% contraction. Mom, it rose 0.4% (-0.1% in May). (Bloomberg) South Korea's cyclical component of composite leading index rises 0.5 pt in Jun (+0.3 pt in May). (Bloomberg) 2 Daybreak Malaysia July 31, 2013 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained the status quo on key interest rates amid a weaker rupee but lowered the country's growth forecast for 2013/2014 to 5.5% from 5.7%. The repo rate stays at 7.25%, the reverse repo rate at 6.25%, and the cash reserve ratio at 4% of net demand and time liabilities of scheduled banks. “India is currently caught in a classic 'impossible trinity' trilemma whereby we are having to forfeit some monetary policy discretion to address external sector concerns," it said. They will be rolled back in a calibrated manner as stability is restored to the foreign exchange market, enabling monetary policy to revert to supporting growth with continuing vigil on inflation, it added. (Bernama) The Philippine central bank sees inflation staying “well within” the target range this year and next, enabling it to keep interest rates unchanged through 2014, Governor Amando Tetangco said. “At this point in time, I don’t see any signs that will lead us to modify or change the policy rate. That’s based on our inflation forecast. But as I said, things are continuously evolving,” he said. (Bloomberg) Australia's central bank governor Glenn Stevens said 2Q13 inflation suggests there's still room to lower interest rates if required and that he wouldn't be surprised if the currency dropped further. "The recent decline in the exchange rate seems to make sense from a macroeconomic perspective. It would not be a major surprise if a further decline occurred over time," he said. (Malaysian Reserve) Malaysian Economic News… Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook on Malaysia to negative from stable amid weaker prospects for budgetary and fiscal reform following its May elections. “Malaysia’s public finances are its key rating weakness,” Fitch said in a statement yesterday, affirming the long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) at 'A-' and 'A', respectively. The short-term foreign currency IDR has been affirmed at 'F2' and the Country Ceiling at 'A'.
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