13 September 2013
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REGIONAL DAILY December 26, 2012 MALAYSIA Malaysia Daybreak | 13 September 2013 Key Metrics ▌What’s on the Table… —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— FBMKLCI Index Telco - overall - Opportunity calls with GST 1,850 The likely introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) should be positive 1,800 for the mobile carriers as they would no longer have to absorb the 6% sales tax 1,750 for prepaid users. DiGi would benefit the most as 71% of its revenues are 1,700 prepaid vs 58% at Celcom and 55% at Maxis. The sector and our stock calls 1,650 remain a Neutral across the board despite this potential development as the 1,600 impact would be limited. Assuming that the telcos are able to recover only half 1,550 the tax since we think that some consumers would reduce their usage when Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 GST is imposed, we estimate a 3-6% lift for CY15 core net profit and 3-5% for ——————————————————————————— target prices. M1 is our top pick in the region. FBMKLCI Dry Bulk Shipping - Will the capesize rally spread? 1772.4 3.92pts 0.22% SEP Futures OCT Futures 1765 - (-0.34%) 1766 - (1.00%) The BDI rally over the past month has narrowly focused on capesizes, driven by ——————————————————————————— robust Chinese restocking of iron ore. Capesize rates should rise for a couple Gainers Losers Unchanged more weeks, supported by good steel demand in China, though the action may 418 291 326 ——————————————————————————— not spread to the smaller vessels. We stay Neutral on the sector, with Pacific Turnover Basin and Maybulk as top picks as they are fundamentally strong and trading 1457.82m shares / RM1752.682m below their SOP. Stock catalysts include a gradual but broad recovery in dry 3m avg volume traded 1620.87m shares 3m avg value traded RM2080.41m bulk rates from 2014. We have an Underperform call on PSL on valuation ——————————————————————————— grounds, and particularly highlight STXPO as our top sell as it is technically Regional Indices insolvent. We lower our target for STXPO to W295 (from W1,380) in this FBMKLCI FSSTI JCI SET HSI report. 1,772 3,121 4,357 1,398 22,954 ———————————————————————————————— Market Indices Close % chg YTD % chg FBMKLCI 1,772.40 0.2 4.9 ▌News of the Day… FBM100 12,038.21 0.2 6.5 —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— FBMSC 14,883.23 0.6 29.6 • EPF and KWAP are net buyers of shares during their recent declines FBMMES 5,117.49 0.4 21.4 Dow Jones 15,300.64 (0.2) 16.8 • Global sugar prices may fall 68% NASDAQ 3,715.97 (0.2) 23.1 • Salcon to sell its Chinese water concessions, focus on properties FSSTI 3,121.08 0.4 (1.5) FTSE-100 6,588.98 0.0 11.7 • Altel Communications defends its award of spectrum Hang Seng 22,953.72 0.1 1.3 JCI 4,356.61 0.2 0.9 • Richard Branson’s Virgin enters Malaysia’s telecom market KOSPI 2,004.06 0.0 0.4 • Khazanah sells Time Engineering to Censof Holdings Nikkei 225 14,387.27 (0.3) 38.4 PCOMP 6,195.61 (0.3) 6.6 • Malton edges closer to take over Pusat Bandar Damansara complex SET 1,397.90 (0.9) 0.4 • Narra to become a division of Hong Leong Group Shanghai 2,255.60 0.6 (0.6) Taiwan 8,225.36 0.2 6.8 Top Actives Close % chg Vol. (m) SOLID AUTOMOTIVE 0.640 14.3 110.6 PESONA METRO 0.475 (5.9) 80.8 PATIMAS COMPUTER 0.040 14.3 33.6 JAKS RESOURCES 0.535 5.9 33.6 LFE CORP 0.275 111.5 32.9 SILVER BIRD 0.105 10.5 27.4 CHINA STATIONERY 0.205 (2.4) 24.2 INTEGRATED RUBBER 0.390 (1.3) 22.5 Economic Statistics Close % chg US$/Euro 1.3297 (0.02) RM/US$ (Spot) 3.2773 (0.05) RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 3.3380 (0.10) OPR (% ) 3.00 0.33 BLR (% , CIMB Bank) 6.60 0.00 GOLD ( US$/oz) 1,323 0.10 WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 108.60 0.97 CPO spot price (RM/tonne) (0.67) 2,363 ———————————————————————————————————————— Terence WONG CFA T (60) 3 20849689 E [email protected] Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Daybreak Malaysia September 13, 2013 Global Economic News… The US budget deficit narrowed to US$147.9bn in Aug (-US$190.5bn in Aug 2012) from a year earlier as a stronger job market boosted revenue, propelling the world’s largest economy toward its smallest annual shortfall since 2008. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists was for a US$146bn deficit in Aug. Revenue rose 3.6% yoy to US$185.4bn while spending totaled US$333.3bn compared with US$369.4bn a year earlier. In the 11 months through the fiscal year that ends 30 Sep, the deficit was US$755.3bn, the narrowest for that period in five years. (Bloomberg) The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to -32.1 in the week ended 8 Sep from -32.3, suggesting that confidence among American consumers stabilized last week after four straight declines even as their views of the economy deteriorated. The drop was within the survey’s margin of error of 3% pts. (Bloomberg) US jobless claims declined by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended 7 Sep, the lowest level since Apr 2006 as work on computer systems in two states caused those employment agencies to report fewer applications. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 330,000 applications. The four-week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, fell to 321,250 last week, the lowest since Oct 2007, from 328,750. The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 73,000 to 2.87m in the week ended 31 Aug. (Bloomberg) US import price index was unchanged in Aug (+0.1% in Jul). The median forecast called for a 0.5 percent advance. The cost of imported goods minus fuels fell 0.2% (-0.4% in Jul). Prices of autos made overseas fell 0.1%. (Bloomberg) Euro-area industrial output contracted 1.5% mom in July (+0.6% in Jun) as manufacturers struggled to shake off the legacy of a record-long recession. That’s more than the 0.3% contraction forecast by economists. In the year, output fell 2.1%. (Bloomberg) Japan's core machinery orders were unexpectedly flat in July (-2.7% in Jun). It was weaker than a median market forecast for a 2.4% increase, Cabinet Office data showed on Thursday. (Reuters) Japan's prime minister has decided to hike the nation's sales tax to 8% in Apr next year from the current 5%, but will soften the blow with a US$50bn (RM163.5bn) stimulus package aimed at protecting a budding economic recovery, reports said yesterday. Parliament has already passed a law to hike the rate but Abe has yet to make a decision on whether to enact it amid concerns higher taxes will hit consumer demand and blunt a nascent recovery in Japan. The reports from the Kyodo and Jiji Press news agencies yesterday did not make clear if another scheduled tax rise to 10% by late 2015 was still in the pipeline. 2 Daybreak Malaysia September 13, 2013 However, Abe will also launch a fresh economic package worth about ¥5tr (RM164.4bn) to cushion the increase, the news agencies and top-selling daily Yomiuri said, with Kyodo citing a source close to the prime minister. Abe is expected to formally announce the plan on 1 Oct at the earliest, they said. (AFP) Australia's jobless rate edged up to 5.8% in Aug (5.7% in Jul), a level not seen since the global financial crisis, with the sluggish economy shedding 10,800 jobs as the mining investment boom unwinds. It was in line with forecasts. (AFP) Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark reference rate by 25bps to 7.25% yesterday, confounding expectations it would leave rates unchanged. The central bank raised the overnight deposit facility rate, or FASBI, by 25bps to 5.50%, to help prop up the ailing rupiah. Eight out of 11 analysts surveyed by Reuters expected Bank Indonesia to hold the benchmark reference rate steady at 7%. (Reuters) The Philippine central bank held its benchmark rate and the rate on its special deposit account (SDA) facility steady yesterday, as fully expected because inflation is slowing and economic growth remains strong. The overnight borrowing rate has been kept at a record low 3.5% since Dec 2012, while the SDA rate has been unchanged since Jun at 2%. (Reuters) Indian industrial production unexpectedly rose 2.6% yoy in July (-1.8% in Jun). The median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.9% fall. (Bloomberg) Malaysian Economic News… Bank Negara does not foresee a higher inflation rate following the rise of fuel prices, as the global economy was still growing modestly, Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said yesterday. “If global commodity prices, including fuel prices, increase substantially, then of course it would contribute to higher inflation, and when fuel prices increase, it is a global price that is beyond our control. There are limits to which the government can support. Any government in the world that tries to contain such price increases through subsidies will finally experience a financial burden that is not sustainable," she said.