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DEVELOPMENT FUTURES SERIES JUNE 2021 © UNDP Iraq/Claire Thomas UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENT FUTURES SERIES JUNE 2021 © UNDP Iraq/Claire Thomas UNDP Global Policy Network Brief Rethinking Nature, Crisis and Complexity after the Pandemic by Kishan Khoday1 Introduction: The virosphere in flux The COVID-19 crisis is evolving into a long-term the current crisis has been and continues to be, development emergency, the scale of which is such outbreaks are likely to continue and even unprecedented in modern times. Among the root escalate on the road to 2030 and beyond, unless causes of the crisis is humanity’s breaching of the development pathways and our relationship with planet’s ecological boundaries. COVID-19 is likely nature are remade. a zoonotic disease, a disease passed from animals to humans. As pressures on natural ecosystems Reducing the intensity of development’s ecological and wildlife intensify, channels of viral outbreak footprint is central to ensuring the resilience of the have accelerated in recent years, as also seen in biosphere, with healthy and diverse ecosystems outbreaks of other zoonotic diseases such as Ebola, more resilient to shocks. “Diversity builds and SARS and MERS in recent years. More than ever, sustains insurance and keeps systems resilient to the ability to prevent outbreaks depends on our changing circumstances.”5 The rapid emergence ability to maintain healthy ecosystems and avoid and frequency of novel virus outbreaks in recent the blurring of ecological boundaries. decades is one example of the implications for the future of civilization, with the global reach One of the oldest life forms on Earth, viruses have and impact of COVID-19 and the rapid reversal been a key component of the world’s ecosystems of development gains a stark reminder of how for hundreds of millions of years and have played ecological fragility and complexity plays out an important role in the evolution of the planet’s in nature.6 COVID-19 will not be the last major ecosystems.2 They constitute one of the most outbreak of a zoonotic disease in our lifetimes. abundant life forms on the planet, with this vast Rather than awaiting the next outbreak, action unseen component of the world’s ecosystems – the is needed towards the sustainable use and virosphere – influencing climatic and geochemical restoration of ecosystems. This is not so much cycles and having co-evolved with other species, an environmental endeavour as it is an act of including humanity.3 Far from a ‘black swan’ preventing crises and future-proofing the hard- event, today’s COVID-19 outbreak had been long won progress on development that countries have predicted. The global pandemic is a clear warning made.7 sign of the implications of breaching planetary boundaries, with more than 75% of new diseases As countries around the world plan aggressive in recent decades being zoonotic spread between responses to COVID-19, an opportunity exists to animals and humans.4 But as devastating as mainstream green recovery solutions into the 1 UNDP Global Policy Network Brief DEVELOPMENT FUTURES SERIES process, so that results in combatting poverty and North Africa (MENA), in many ways at the forefront inequality can withstand accelerating ecological of multi-dimensional risk and where trends of impacts in the future. This year’s critical United conflict, displacement and rising poverty have been Nations summits on the planetary crisis offer a exacerbated by the region’s position as the most timely opportunity to review these challenges water-insecure, food-import-dependent part of the and advance tangible solutions.8 To this end, this world, and where temperatures are rising faster paper looks at the case of the Middle East and than the world average owing to climate change. Crisis and Transformation in the MENA Region The interplay between nature, complexity and crisis While the lessons from deep history are key in is far from a new phenomenon in the Middle East understanding the nexus of nature, complexity and and indeed dates to the origins of civilization. The crisis in the region, the changes underway today region saw the rise of the world’s first agricultural are occurring at a pace unlike anything before, civilizations and city-states, in many ways stretching the ability of communities and states to functioning as hubs of multi-species convergence cope and positively adapt. with a concentration of people, animals and viruses never seen before. This led to rapidly shifting routes Over the past decade, the region has witnessed of viral transmission and generated what were an unprecedented convergence of crises — onset thought to be some the world’s first major outbreaks of one of the worst drought cycles in almost one of zoonotic diseases.9 thousand years, the systemic changes brought on by the Arab uprisings, one of the most dramatic Viruses have played a key role in the rise and fall of outbreaks of conflict and mass displacement in ancient civilizations in the region over millennia, with modern times, and the emergence of the Middle the converging forces of climatic shifts, resource East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) — the last major insecurity, conflicts and pandemics likely behind coronavirus outbreak before COVID-19. Importantly, a number of transitions throughout the region’s these crises were amplified by an ecological history.10 In many ways the history of the region crisis which, if left unchecked, will accelerate has been one of resilience, with societies having further in coming years — reshaping the future of been able to adapt and transition over thousands development in the region and presenting major of years to new pathways following complex crises. challenges for the prospect of a resilient recovery. A Climate-Resilient Recovery Climate change poses one of the greatest threats to Today, impacts and risks once again converge, the future of development in the MENA region and with particular challenges for poor and displaced could well undermine a long-term recovery from communities for whom COVID-19 and the economic COVID-19.11 Already a global hotspot of climate risk, and climate crises pose a threat to lives and temperatures in the region are rising faster than livelihoods. Already in 2020-21, many communities the world average, threatening to further reduce have faced mounting economic pressures alongside renewable water resources by 20% by 2030,12 the emergence of climate induced disasters. 2020 with millions at further risk from climate-induced was one of the hottest years on record for the region, displacement.13 Temperatures in the region are alongside an unprecedented outbreak of locusts expected to increase by up to 5°C by 2100.14 While driven in part by climate change.17 Vulnerabilities climate change will continue to accelerate, it has have been especially serious in conflict affected already had devastating consequences across areas of the region, where communities suffer the region. The 2008–2009 economic crisis, for displacement from both climate and conflict, leading example, converged with accelerating climate to a growing awareness in the region of the role of impacts and resource insecurity, occurring during climate change as a threat to peace and security.18 one of the worst drought cycles experienced by the The severity of the economic crisis catalysed by the region in almost a thousand years.15 This combination pandemic must not distract decision-makers from the of economic and climate crises generated converging forces of climate fragility, with a need unprecedented levels of social vulnerability and to advance more ambitious climate action and craft instability in advance of the Arab uprisings.16 climate-resilient recovery pathways.19 2 UNDP Global Policy Network Brief DEVELOPMENT FUTURES SERIES An opportunity exists to integrate climate climate-resilient economic recovery. To this end, adaptation into the recovery of key economic UNDP is scaling up support to help countries sectors as a means of building back better and raise ambition within NDC enhancement and NAP ensuring results that are able to withstand future development processes in places like Egypt, Iraq, climate shocks — especially with more frequent Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Somalia, and Sudan. In and severe droughts, floods and storms expected addition to setting an enabling policy environment in coming years.20 Climate solutions can be for action, UNDP support also helps build the mainstreamed into new capital injection and fiscal public-private partnerships needed to scale up stimulus measures to support the recovery of finance and bring co-benefits for goals of poverty MSMEs as well as key climate-vulnerable sectors reduction, women’s empowerment and recovery at the centre of economic recovery goals such as from the pandemic. agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure.21 Innovative solutions can also be applied to the challenge of Today, UNDP has approximately $125 million mounting debt, with ‘debt-for-climate swaps’ one of grants ongoing and planned for countries in option to offset debt repayments with domestic the MENA region on climate adaptation, with investments into climate resilient solutions.22 Unless a particular focus on communities facing the climate adaptation is integrated from the outset, converging impacts of climate, displacement, and the climate crisis will jeopardize results within the COVID-19. With financial support of the Green region’s recovery. Climate Fund (GCF), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the Adaptation Fund (AF), the Least An opportunity also exists during the recovery
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