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FORESIGHT SCIENCE DIVISION1 Brief FORESIGHT October 2017 Brief 003 Early Warning, Emerging Issues and Futures the Changing Aral Sea

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FORESIGHT SCIENCE DIVISION1 Brief FORESIGHT October 2017 Brief 003 Early Warning, Emerging Issues and Futures the Changing Aral Sea FORESIGHT SCIENCE DIVISION1 Brief FORESIGHT October 2017 Brief 003 Early Warning, Emerging Issues and Futures The changing Aral Sea Background The extent of the Aral Sea basin Why is this issue important? The UN Environment Foresight Briefs are published by The total area of this basin is 1.76 million km2 The Aral Sea supports agriculture, industry, energy UN Environment to, among others, highlight a hotspot covering varying proportions of a number of provision and the general wellbeing of the people in this of environmental change, feature an emerging science countries in the Central Asia region as follows: region. However, the sea is under threat. The population topic, or discuss a contemporary environmental issue. in the region is growing and so are the demands for The public is thus provided with the opportunity to find • Tajikistan (99 per cent) water, food and energy. Between 1960 and 2010, the out what is happening to their changing environment and population increased from 14 million to 50 million and is the consequences of everyday choices, and to think about • Uzbekistan (95 per cent) expected to reach 70 million by 2040 ( EastWest Institute, future directions for policy. • Turkmenistan (94.6 per cent) 2014). Introduction • Kyrgyzstan (59.2 per cent) covering the provinces Research indicated the Aral Sea would eventually split of Osh, Djalal-Abad and Naryn into two by 2030. This has already happened and the The Aral Sea was once the world’s fourth largest inland • Kazakhstan (12.7 per cent) covering Kyzylorda and situation is likely to deteriorate further if things do not lake. Its hydrological balance is strongly determined by South Kazakhstan provinces change (Létolle, Aladin, Filipov, & Boroffka, 2005). inflows from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers which are fed by glacial melt waters from the southwestern • Northern Afghanistan (37.7 per cent) However, re-engineering along the Syr Darya River Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan and the Tien Shan • A tiny portion of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the delta in the Small Aral Sea has shown the possibilities Mountains that border Kyrgyzstan and China. Tedzhen/Murghab basin of deliberate intervention. The fact that it is possible to address some of the environmental degradation In January 2014, the UN Environment featured the problems and improve the water management situation Aral Sea stating that that “the future of Aral Sea lies in Source: FAO, 2012 within the region makes this an important issue. transboundary co-operation”. The report stated that before the 1960s, the mean surface area of the Sea was 66,000 km², the sea’s level was about 50-53m above sea Satellite images illustrating the progressive shrinking of the large Aral Sea, but small Aral Sea expanding. level and its volume was 1,060 km3 (FAO, 2013). During the 1960s, the implementation of major irrigation projects on both the Amu Darya and Syr Darya caused a marked increase in net evaporation compared to inflows resulting in less water reaching the Aral Sea. By the end of the 1980s, the surface area had declined by 50 percent; the sea’s level and volume were down by 17 m and 75 percent respectively (FAO, 2013). 1973 1986 1999 2004 2013 2017 Key: Dark Blue color : Deep Water; Brown and whitish: Areas affected by salt concentration and others Source: UNEP Early Warning, Emerging Issues and Futures SCIENCE DIVISION FORESIGHT 2 Brief What are the findings? For instance, there are have been increasing reports of employment (FAO, 2012). The changing river flow to the cancer, respiratory, liver and kidney disease (Micklin, Aral Sea decimated this industry. Exponential growth in irrigation agriculture 2016). Although more study is required, it is thought that Between 1960 and 2010, irrigation agriculture grew from these are caused by dust polluted with chemicals used Climate change has been thought to influence the around 5 million to 8.5 million hectares (Bekchanov, in the irrigated farms.The extensive deltas of the Syr and volumes of water reaching the Aral Sea. For instance, Ringler, Bhaduri, & Jeuland, 2015). The demands for water Amu rivers sustained a diversity of flora and fauna as higher temperatures are thought to be shrinking the were unsustainable and overwhelmed the regular water well as irrigated agriculture, animal husbandry, hunting glaciers that feed the rivers and is leading to increased flow into the Aral Sea and led to its progressive desiccation and trapping, fishing, and harvesting of reeds. The unique evapotranspiration. Already evaporation in the basin is and salinization (Micklin, 2016). About 22 million people Tugay forests along the river banks and the number of higher than the total rainfall, snowmelt and ground water depend on irrigated agriculture for their livelihoods in the species of mammals and birds have declined sharply supply and the higher temperatures are accelerating the Aral Sea basin, and 20 to 40 percent of the economic (Micklin, 2016). At its height,R U S S fishI A N F catchE D E R A TaveragedI O N 40,000 decline in the volumes of water and increasing salinity output of the countries is derived from agriculture, most tonnes per annum and was an important source of local levels (Sorg, Boch, Stoffel, Solomina, & Beniston, 2012). of which is irrigated. The irrigation sector is further compounded by the fact that the infrastructure is aging Irrigated areas in the Aral Sea basin and maintenance costs are growing (World Bank, 2014). Torgai Aral Sea RUSSIAN FEDERATION river basin K A Z A K H S T A N Growing energy demands MONGOLIA KAZAKHSTAN Legend UKRAINE There is vast energy potential within the basin with GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN u UZBEKISTAN CHINA International Boundary ys ARMENIA KYRGYZSTAN r TURKEY TURKMENISTAN Sa TAJIKISTAN Jammu Kashmir estimates indicating that the region can meet more CYPRUS ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! SYRIA ISLAMIC ! Aksai Chin !! Administrative Boundary ! LEBANON ! REPUBLIC AFGHANISTAN ! China/India ISRAEL IRAQ OF JORDAN NEPAL than 71 per cent of its energy requirements from KUWAIT IRAN BUTHAN Capital, Town PAKISTAN QATAR EGYPT UAE hydroelectricity. There are more than 80 water reservoirs, INDIA SAUDI ARABIA River OMAN 3 SUDAN each with a capacity of over 10 million m and more than ERITREA YEMEN Indian ! ! ! Canal ! ! DJIBOUTI ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Ocean ! ! Chu ! SOMALIA SRI LANKA ETHIOPIA 45 hydropower plants with a total capacity of more than A r a l K MALDIVES A KENYA River Basin A I N R L A P T 34.5 Gigawatts. Hydropower makes up 27.3 per cent of the S e a A S U Lake y N r R average energy consumption in the Aral Sea basin (FAO, Lake Sudochie A D I a D A Bishkek R K YZYL KU M D r G ES y E s E R a s Issyk Lake U T a alas 2013). There are complex inter-relationships between the Arys T u Kul Sarykamish T Nuqus Ch Intermittent Lake K Y R G Y Z S T A N Lake N upstream and downstream countries over water for energy Dar y a ly Song-Kel A k Tuaymuyun q H i Charvak Na ryn S ch ir Lake Toktogul and agriculture. The upstream countries (Kyrgyzstan and KHOREZM h Sary-Chelek Lake N C a Aral Sea prior to 1960 U Z B E K I S T A N Tashkent ary Andijan Chetir-Kel I E Chardarya r D T A Lake Sy Tajikistan) use water for hydropower production while Kara m Aydarkul Karkidon d Kayrakkum ar u Isfara ya KARA KUM D han downstream, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan vs Vorukh uu Dam a a Farkhad l S r r LLE Y y e Lake VA K yz y Z RGANA a Parsankul FZEer shan ob Lake Lake use water primarily for irrigation (FAO, 2013). a v kh Su r Havraz Karakul T U R K M E N I S T A N rya Zone of Irrigation kada T A J I K I S T A N Lake C H I N A sh Rogun Development a Dushanbe ob ! Yashinkul Kopetdag K a Obik hin g g d y j tan r sh r a a n Nurek n S d o h a Ashgabat b k a B N n h I Lake Social, environmental and economic impacts of receding a i a P Lake Kerki r a A KO P ara Kum n V E C e h T Zorkul T anal r Boygozi D K k Sarez ir P A h Salt Pan G r a m N f Kizilsu S u a a U M o P Oguzkhan n Aral Sea O Am S K K o O n K U Zeid u k j a a M c Da h a k h s N T r ya M W h Termiz K a u ha a T e na r b Transportation routes across the Sea have been severely A d a R f g I R I z d Jammu N h u h a d S e M b I S L A M I C n Sary-Yazy affected, and the ports at Muynak on the southern shore A ( Aksai H P 0 50 100 200 km z ! a Dostluk ! u ! Source: http:// r d ! ! n ! and Aralsk to the north are no longer operational as i ! and ! Chin ! Albers Equal Area Projection, WGS 1984 u ! ! ! R E P U B L I C R ! ! ! ! ! ! ! K ! ! ! www.fao.org/ o ! ! water levels have receded greatly. The receding waters d Kabul ! ! ) ! nr/water/ FAO - AQUASTAT, 2013 ! ! ! O F ! ! left behind an arid area called the Aral-kum desert. Dust ! Kashmir aquastat/ Salma ! Disclaimer ! ! ! The designations employed and the presentation of I R A N ! basins/aral- material in this publication do not imply the expression ! ! and salt from this area is carried during wind storms ! A F G H A N I S T A N ! of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the P A K I S T A N Food and Agriculture Organization of the United sea/aral.sea- and causes harm to surrounding vegetation and fauna, Nations concerning the legal status of any country, IN D IA territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning map_detailed.
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