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Predicting Spread of Invasive Exotic Plants Into Dewatered Reservoirs After Dam Removal on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington

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Predicting Spread of Invasive Exotic Plants Into Dewatered Reservoirs After Dam Removal on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington Predicting Spread of Invasive Exotic Plants into Dewatered Reservoirs After Dam Removal on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington Open-File Report 2011–1048 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover: Scot’s broom (Cytisus scoparius) beside Elwha River, Olympic National Park Washington. Photograph taken by Joshua Chenoweth in 2008. Predicting Spread of Invasive Exotic Plants into Dewatered Reservoirs After Dam Removal on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington By Andrea Woodward and Christian Torgersen, U.S. Geological Survey, and Joshua Chenoweth, Katherine Beirne, and Steve Acker, National Park Service Open-File Report 2011-1048 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2011 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Suggested citation: Woodward, Andrea, Torgersen, Christian, Chenoweth, Joshua, Beirne, Katherine, and Acker, Steve, 2011, Predicting spread of invasive exotic plants into de-watered reservoirs following dam removal on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1048, 64 p. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Geomorphic Template for Invasion ............................................................................................................................ 2 Invasion Dynamics ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 Objectives .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Methods ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Surveys of Invasive Species ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Identification of Focal Species ................................................................................................................................... 4 Relations between Species and Environment ............................................................................................................ 4 Invasive Communities ................................................................................................................................................ 5 Wind Dispersal ........................................................................................................................................................... 6 Long-Distance Dispersal Mechanisms of Focal Species ............................................................................................... 6 Cirsium arvense ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Cytisus scoparius ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 Geranium robertianum ............................................................................................................................................... 7 Hypericum perforatum ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Lathyrus sylvestris...................................................................................................................................................... 7 Phalaris arundinacea ................................................................................................................................................. 7 Rubus armeniacus and Rubus lacinatus .................................................................................................................... 8 Distribution of Invasives ................................................................................................................................................. 8 Spatial Distribution ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 Factors Predicting Species Distribution ...................................................................................................................... 9 Associations among Invasive Species ..................................................................................................................... 10 Wind Vector ................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Wind Direction and Speed during Seed Dispersal ................................................................................................... 11 Effect of Topography on Wind Direction ................................................................................................................... 11 Water Vector ................................................................................................................................................................ 12 Mammal Vectors .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Bird Vectors ................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Road- and Trail-Associated Vectors ............................................................................................................................ 14 Priority Areas ............................................................................................................................................................... 15 Pre-Dam Removal Treatments................................................................................................................................. 15 Setting Priorities for Treatments and Species .......................................................................................................... 16 Species Locations Outside of Olympic National Park .............................................................................................. 16 Post-Dam Removal Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................. 16 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................. 17 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................................ 18 References Cited ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 iii Figures Figure 1. Locations of the Elwha and Glines Canyon Dams and respective reservoirs on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington. ......................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 2. Project area, Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington. ................................................................. 24 Figure 3. Subareas used to determine predictive variables for occurrence of invasive plant species, Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington. ........................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 4. Kernel density representation of ‘hot spots’ of 30 invasive species (table 1; high to low density represented by hot to cool colors), isolated observations (green points), and area surveyed during 2001 and 2008 (lilac), Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington. ............................................................................................ 26 Figure 5. Kernel density representation of ‘hot
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