sign in sign up
<<
Home , Amir Khadir, Bernard Drainville, Laurent Lessard, Martine Ouellet, Martin Coiteux, Nicolas Marceau

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120

The 2014 Provincial Election in

Éric Bélanger and Eva Falk Pedersen Department of Political Science McGill University [email protected] and [email protected]

Abstract

After having been in power for just a little over a year and a half, the Parti Québécois government led by decided to call an early election in the hope of getting the majority of seats that had evaded them the last time around. That bet was lost as the 2014 election campaign resulted in the worst showing for the PQ since 1973. The inter- election period was dominated by the debate over the PQ’s proposed Charter of Quebec Values. The Charter also influenced the debate during the campaign, as did the issue of Quebec’s sovereignty due in part to the arrival of Pierre Karl Péladeau as a star candidate for the PQ. The Liberal Party of Quebec is now back in government with a majority of seats and under the leadership of .

112

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120

Introduction “valeurs québécoises” by the immigrant population – and, hence, the protection After less than two years spent on the and promotion of those values. The official opposition benches of Quebec’s proposed Charter had several provisions, National Assembly, the Liberal Party of including enshrining the values of Quebec (PLQ) was back in government secularism in the Quebec Charter of with a majority of seats and under the Human Rights and Freedoms (Charte leadership of Philippe Couillard des droits et libertés de la personne), following the provincial election of April indicating that the gender equality 7th 2014. That election’s result provisions of the Charter of Human represented the worst vote share of the Rights and Freedoms should be incumbent Parti Québécois’ history since interpreted within a secular framework, 1973. The previous 2012 election had outlining a framework for how the been groundbreaking since it was the government would respond to requests first time in Quebec’s history that a for religious accommodation, and woman was elected as . Yet, the obliging those seeking public services to 2014 election is also historic not only present themselves with their face due to the PQ’s demise but also because uncovered (Assemblée nationale du that same woman, Pauline Marois, has Québec 2013). been defeated in her own riding (Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré) after just However, much of the attention focused a short reign of 19 months. on the provision to ban “ostentatious religious symbols” (signes religieux That short period in power was ostentatoires) in public employment. dominated by the debate surrounding a The proposed ban on the wearing of controversial piece of legislation that religious symbols by all public encapsulated the Marois government’s employees was indeed the object of most willingness to tackle the issue of of the criticisms aimed at the Charter. secularism in the province’s public First, defining what is ostentatious institutions. , the triggered a fair amount of op-eds, Minister responsible for Democratic editorials, and news articles. Second, the Institutions and Active Citizenship, PQ had already decided that the crucifix made this policy proposal public on on the wall of the National Assembly in September 10, 2013 under the name of Quebec would be there to stay because it “Charter of Quebec Values.”1 The was part of Quebec’s cultural heritage. legislation aimed at reinforcing the Third, many actors considered the secular nature of Quebec society and at provision to be unconstitutional as it was facilitating the adoption of the so-called seen to be an attack on the individuals’ freedom to express their religious 1 The actual legislation, Bill 60, “Charter beliefs. In good part for this reason, both affirming the values of State secularism and the Liberals and Québec Solidaire (QS) religious neutrality and of equality between were strongly against the Charter women and men, and providing a framework for project; for its part, the Coalition Avenir accommodation requests” was introduced in the National Assembly on November 7th 2013. It was Québec (CAQ) was more conciliatory on never adopted due to the snap election call made the topic and said that if Quebecers just a few months later. 113

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120 wanted a Charter then there should be the party to be ahead of the Liberals, one (Société Radio- 2013). thus cementing Pauline Marois’ plans to Finally, many societal actors accused the call an election campaign on March 5th. PQ of fuelling and exploiting fear towards immigrants as an electoral In terms of electoral organization, two strategy. Indeed, there was considerable things changed between the 2012 and the speculation at the time that Pauline 2014 elections. For the first time, polling Marois wanted to call an early election stations were allowed to be installed on before the end of the year. university and college campuses. If they wish so, students can now have their According to CROP polling results, vote ballot cast on campus be counted as a intentions for the PQ significantly ballot cast in their home riding. This is declined between December 2012 (36%) part of the electoral officer’s strategy to and June 2013 (25%), while support for enhance youth’s electoral participation; the PLQ showed the opposite trend in addition, this new rule helps reduce (increasing from 25 to 38 percent) the bias induced by student over- thanks to that party’s leadership race representation in ridings in which which led to the selection of Philippe educational institutions are present. The Couillard as new Liberal leader but also second institutional change is related to to a rather chaotic first few months in party funding. The new financing rules power for the PQ. Since the Lac- adopted by the Marois government were Mégantic rail disaster of July 2013 aimed at reducing the influence of where the Marois government had been donors in the wake of revelations made applauded for its quick reaction, vote at the . The intentions in favour of the PQ had been maximum is now set at 100 dollars per slowly but surely on the rise, but the donation per year, accompanied by party still remained behind the PLQ. In a greater support from public funds. secluded retreat held in late October 2013, Marois and her caucus decided to The Campaign postpone the election call, feeling that a bit more time was needed for the Charter Contrary to the previous election where debate to have an impact on public the Quebec party system had seen the opinion that would be more clearly in emergence of two new formations (the favour of the government’s position on Coalition Avenir Québec, having merged this issue (Nadeau 2013). In addition, with the former Action Démocratique du Minister of Finance Québec, and created announced in late November that his by dissidents from the PQ), no new government’s next budget, to be important parties have emerged in 2014. presented the following spring, would The three major parties kicked off their unfortunately remain in deficit (of $2.5 campaign by emphasizing the economy billion). This new element further and the issue of unemployment. The first reduced the PQ’s window of opportunity official campaign press conference given for going to the polls. February 2014 by the PQ did not go unnoticed. Indeed, public surveys confirmed the rise in PQ Pauline Marois did not field any vote intentions since the introduction of questions from journalists on this Bill 60 in November and now showed occasion. This “minimum exposition”

114

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120 approach was considered as suspect by for the last 20 years, had decided to run the press, and Marois was even again as an independent candidate due to compared to a disagreement over her former party’s who is known for over- legalist position on the issue of controlling information (Laurence 2014). secularism (Canadian Press 2013). Barrette would win the seat by a large Even if parties started campaigning on margin. Martine Desjardins, who had the economy, the rest of the campaign been a students’ union leader during the was quickly re-centred around other 2012 maple spring crisis, also decided to issues, notably the ongoing debate about jump into electoral politics under the PQ the province’s constitutional future and banner, but she did not get elected the PQ’s proposed Charter of Values. By despite the increased media visibility she the second day of the campaign, Marois had received in the years since the crisis. had justified this early election call by saying that she wanted a majority of But the most notable new personality in seats so as to be able to adopt the Charter the 2014 campaign was Pierre Karl and she invited all voters, no matter if Péladeau. Owner of the largest media they were in favour of Quebec’s consortium in the province (Québecor) independence or not, to vote for her and very well known throughout Quebec party (Journet and Lessard 2014). The often just by his initials (PKP), Péladeau leader of the PLQ, Philippe Couillard, announced on March 9th that he would accused Marois of misleading voters run for the Parti Québécois in the riding since her party clearly supports of Saint-Jérôme after having denied independence. The PLQ reiterated their rumours about it just a few months commitment against that project while before. His nomination as candidate promoting the recognition of the distinct raised a number of ethical concerns, with character of the province in the Canadian many arguing that he ought to sell his constitution. As their slogan indicated shares of Québecor in the event that he (“Ensemble, on s’occupe des vraies would become MNA. Péladeau refused affaires”) the Liberals opposed the PQ’s to do so and instead stressed that, if divisive priorities of independence and elected, he would respect all the rules the Charter with a focus on the economy, mentioned in the National Assembly’s pledging the creation of 100,000 jobs code of ethics (Chouinard et al. 2014). during their first mandate (Chouinard The announcement of his candidacy was 2014). also notable due to the fact that Péladeau fist-pumped the air while claiming that It is impossible to speak about this he was running “to make Québec a campaign without speaking about some country!” This spontaneous cry from the of its featured candidates. A few days heart on the part of such a high-profile before the campaign started, well-known PQ candidate undesirably served to bring doctor Gaétan Barrette, who had the independence issue to the fore. It unsuccessfully run for the CAQ in the fuelled concerns over Marois’ 2012 election, announced that he would willingness to prepare a third referendum run this time for the PLQ and would face on the issue if re-elected with a majority, Fatima Houda-Pepin in the riding of La a possibility that was alluded to by a few Pinière. Houda-Pepin, a Liberal MNA

115

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120 of her cabinet’s members just before the Couillard’s credibility was attacked on election call (Salvet 2014). two fronts: his personal integrity was With the two traditional parties fighting questioned with references made to his over the referendum debate, the other past (his work in Saudi Arabia and his parties struggled to stand out. The CAQ business ties with controversial figure tried to shift the debate away from the Arthur Porter) and his apparent lack of national question by bringing up nationalist fervor (his legalist position on spending cuts in the health agencies’ secularism and his defence of budgets, by proposing to forbid trade bilingualism) was criticized. The PQ unions from spending money for adopted a “Cerberus” approach: political causes other than labour, and by Drainville focused on the Charter of suggesting to reduce the size of the state Values, Péladeau concentrated on the and to reform the senior civil service economy, while Marois stood in the organization. Québec Solidaire, which is middle to coordinate the party’s message another party that wants to further prime (Lessard 2014). After an unconvincing left-right issues, experienced even a performance in the first televised debate, harder time putting their agenda up front. CAQ leader François Legault came back Co-leader Françoise David tried to in force in the second one broadcasted attract voters disillusioned with the PQ on March 27th. A poll published four (particularly the youth) by stating that, days later still placed the PLQ ahead but unlike the PQ, QS is a genuine social- also showed an increase in support for democratic party (Teisceira-Lessard the CAQ. This surge allowed the party to 2014). QS also tried to bring up public avoid a possible collapse but it came too health issues by proposing to recruit 800 late to make a real breakthrough. We can more health professionals, and reiterated finally note that the campaign was its opposition to the Charter of Values. punctuated by various small events such Hence, even if Quebec Solidaire has a as a large-scale demonstration in strong position in favour of Quebec against the Charter of Values, a sovereignty, both the CAQ and QS tried semi-scandal regarding a supposed to overcome the traditional debate about increase in the number of voting list independence versus federalism. In spite registrations in the riding of Sainte- of their efforts, the national question Marie-Saint-Jacques by Anglophone remained at the forefront of the students, and many accusations of illegal campaign. This became clear when financing towards different parties. Pauline Marois felt the obligation to specify, right at the start of the March The Outcome and Its Aftermath 20th televised leaders debate, that she would not hold a referendum on The Marois government was defeated on sovereignty unless Quebecers were the night of Monday, April 7th, after “ready” for it – a position that proved to having governed for less than two years. be as evasive as ever (Boisvert 2014). Philippe Couillard, leader of the PLQ, became at the head of The Liberals having clearly taken the a majority government. His party lead in vote intention polls by then, they received more than 40% of the vote and became the target of the campaign for succeeded in electing 70 of their the rest of its duration. Philippe candidates (see Table 1).

116

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120

(and a split of the pro-Charter vote While the 2012 election had seen the PQ between the PQ and the CAQ). Because and the PLQ as tight competitors – with each of these two issues strongly a difference in support of less than one mobilized voters who were against percentage point – the 2014 election them, they both ended up favouring the indicated a clear downfall for the Parti PLQ. Québécois. The party only received 25% of ballots cast which translated into 30 As for the CAQ, it received a 23% share seats. Pauline Marois resigned on of the vote and managed to elect 22 of its election night after making a plea for candidates at the National Assembly. youth’s and women’s involvement in Compared to the 2012 election, this politics. Most commentators consider result represented both a setback in that the effect of the Charter has cost the terms of popular vote share (-4 PQ a number of Montreal ridings due to percentage points) and an improvement a lack of identification of the voters to in terms of seats won (+3). This this identity-based issue (e.g., Boucher paradoxical outcome offers a good 2014). In addition, the PQ lost support in example of the discrepancies that can be the suburban area of Montreal; the brought about by the single-member northern shore of Montreal opted instead plurality (SMP) voting system. We can for the CAQ, while the Laval region infer from these numbers that the CAQ’s preferred the Liberals. In retrospect, it support was more concentrated in some seems clear that the PQ’s defeat mainly ridings, which is a necessary condition to resulted as much from an anti- elect representatives under a SMP referendum vote triggered by Péladeau’s system (for a study of the geography of presence (and the Liberals’ discourse the CAQ’s support, see Forest 2013). about it) than from an anti-Charter vote

Table 1. Quebec Provincial Election Results 2012 2014 Seats Popular vote Seats Popular vote (#) (%) (#) (%) Parti Libéral du Québec 50 31.2 70 41.5 Parti Québécois 54 32.0 30 25.4 Coalition Avenir Québec 19 27.1 22 23.1 Québec Solidaire 2 6.0 3 7.6 Option Nationale 0 1.9 0 0.7 Parti Vert Quebec 0 1.0 0 0.6 Source: Directeur général des élections du Québec (www.dgeq.qc.ca)

Looking at the smaller parties, we can 2008 and 2012. The 2014 election saw see that Québec Solidaire continued to Manon Massé, a well-known feminist slowly gain support. Since the 2008 and lesbian activist, being elected under provincial election, the party has always the QS banner. Across the province, the been able to get one extra candidate party won 7.6% of the popular vote elected. and Françoise which represents a slight increase David have respectively been elected in compared to its 2012 vote share. The

117

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120 three ridings where QS succeeded in When forming his ministerial cabinet, electing candidates are all located in the Premier Philippe Couillard has tried to downtown area of the Montreal Island; achieve a balance by choosing former and the party finished second in two ministers from the era other ridings of Montreal (Laurier- (2003-2012) that are experienced (Jean- Dorion and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve). Marc Fournier, Lise Thériault, Sam As for the Green Party of Quebec and Hamad, , etc.) but also Option Nationale, they both continued to by appointing people new to the cabinet decline and received negligible shares of (, Carlos Leitão, Hélène the vote (less than one percentage point David, Robert Poëti, Gaétan Barrette, province-wide). etc.). Given that the next election is scheduled by law for 2018, Couillard has Overall, these results are interesting the luxury of time (Marissal 2014) and because it is the first time in Quebec that so the new Liberal government has a party won the election with such a decided to spend its first two years majority while having so many other implementing a number of “austerity” parties represented in parliament. measures in order to reach a balanced Considering that the SMP voting system budget by 2016. The first year of the usually fosters two-party systems, the government has gone by relatively province of Quebec seems to be an smoothly. Several manifestations against exception to the rule for the time being austerity have been organized by left- or perhaps is becoming more “Canadian” leaning groups, mostly in Montreal and this way (for a recent assessment of the , but opinion polls seem to evolution of Quebec’s party system, see indicate that a majority of Quebecers are Godbout 2013). In terms of turnout, the supportive of the Liberals’ tough 2014 participation rate of 71.4% was budgetary measures (the Liberal wins in slightly lower than in 2012 (74.6%). The two by-elections held in June 2015 have 2014 turnout tends to fit with the overall been interpreted as further evidence of decrease in electoral participation that is popular support for Couillard’s budget being experienced across many Western decisions). Some were even fearing a democracies. The 2008 election marked new “maple spring” in 2015 but student a strong downfall in electoral mobilization, lacking a key rallying issue participation (only 57% of voters casted like the tuition fee hikes had been back a ballot that year) but this proved to be in 2012 (see Bélanger and Falk Pedersen an exception as the following two 2014), proved not as strong this time contests (2012 and 2014) saw a return to around and the protest movement more “normal” – although still declining quickly petered out. – turnout rates (see Blais, Galais, and Gélineau 2013). In an analysis of riding- Understandably, the result of the 2014 level voting and non-voting patterns in election has been a brutal shock for the the 2014 election, Montigny and his Parti Québécois. Members of the party colleagues (2014) found that the victory have spoken publicly about the need for of Liberal candidates was greatly helped the PQ to engage in a deep and a long in the ridings that experienced an reflection about its future and its increase in turnout. priorities. Part of this reflection exercise was accomplished during the leadership

118

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120 race that led to the selection in May referendum on this question. Thus, the 2015 of Pierre Karl Péladeau as the new PQ remains stuck between a rock and a PQ leader, officially defeating Alexandre hard place – between its platform’s top Cloutier and while two priority of making independence and the other candidates, Bernard Drainville and necessity of first getting into power in Pierre Céré, withdrew during the order to act on it – due to the fact that the leadership campaign (Jean-François idea of sovereignty lacks momentum Lisée withdrew before the campaign among the Quebec population, at least even began). However, since the race did for the time being (see also Maioni not end up being much of a close one, 2014). In any case, because of Péladeau was able to surf toward the Péladeau’s presence at the head of the finish without committing himself much PQ, the 2018 campaign is likely to end in terms of future policy orientations for up being as polarized around the national the party. Even on the issue of question as before. If so, it may well sovereignty, while being clearly become a make-or-break election for the committed to working toward making Parti Québécois and its constitutional Quebec a sovereign country, the new PQ option. leader has refused so far to clarify his strategy and calendar for holding a third

References Boisvert, Yves, “Charte ou référendum?,” La Presse, 21 March Assemblée nationale du Québec, Projet 2014, p.A5. de loi no 60: Charte affirmant les valeurs de laïcité et de neutralité Boucher, Marc T., “Political Reflections religieuse de l’État ainsi que d’égalité on a Homecoming: The Québec Election entre les femmes et les hommes et of April 2014,” Québec Studies, vol.58, encadrant les demandes d’ 2014, p.123-137. accommodement, Québec: Éditeur officiel du Québec, 2013. Canadian Press, “Fatima Houda-Pepin se vide le coeur et plaide pour limiter les Bélanger, Éric, and Eva Falk Pedersen, droits,” , 14 November 2013. “The 2012 Provincial Election in Retrived from Quebec,” Canadian Political Science http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/queb Review, vol.8, no.1, 2014, p.141-149. ec/392729/laicite-fatima-houda-pepin- se-vide-le-coeur-et-plaide-pour-limiter- Blais, André, Carol Galais, and François les-droits Gélineau, “La participation électorale,” in Frédérick Bastien, Éric Bélanger, and Chouinard, Tommy, “Couillard s’inspire François Gélineau (eds.), Les Québécois de Bourassa pour l’emploi,” La Presse, 6 aux urnes: les partis, les médias et les March 2014, p.A3. citoyens en campagne, Quebec: Presses de l’Université de Montréal, 2013, Chouinard, Tommy, Paul Journet, and p.179-189. Philippe Teisceira-Lessard, “Péladeau au centre des tirs croisés,” La Presse, 11 March 2014, p.A3.

119

The Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 2, 2015 pp. 112-120

déterminante,” Le Devoir, 18 April Forest, Benjamin, “La géographie de 2014. Retrieved from l’élection de 2012 au Québec,” in http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/queb Frédérick Bastien, Éric Bélanger, and ec/405896/la-mobilisation-du-vote- François Gélineau (eds.), Les Québécois liberal-est-determinante aux urnes: les partis, les médias et les citoyens en campagne, Montreal: Presses Nadeau, Jessica, “Pas d’élections de l’Université de Montréal, 2013, générales en 2013, mais des partielles à p.251-270. Montréal,” Le Devoir, 28 October 2013. Retrieved from Godbout, Jean-François, “Les élections http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/queb au Québec de 1973 à 2012,” in Frédérick ec/391052/elections Bastien, Éric Bélanger, and François Gélineau (eds.), Les Québécois aux Salvet, Jean-Marc, “Référendum sur la urnes: les partis, les médias et les souveraineté: des ministres espèrent,” Le citoyens en campagne, Montreal: Presses Soleil, 27 February 2014. Retrived from de l’Université de Montréal, 2013, p.23- http://www.lapresse.ca/le- 43. soleil/actualites/politique/201402/26/01- 4742859-referendum-sur-la- Journet, Paul, and Denis Lessard, souverainete-des-ministres-esperent.php “Marois veut une majorité pour adopter la charte,” La Presse, 5 March 2014, Société Radio-Canada, “Libéraux et p.A2. solidaires rejettent le projet de charte, la CAQ plus conciliante,” 7 November Laurence, Jean-Christophe, “Parler ou ne 2013. Retrieved from pas parler?,” La Presse, 7 March 2014, http://ici.radio- p.A11. canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2013/11/0 7/002-reactions-politiques-opposition- Lessard, Denis, “Le PQ change son plan quebec-projet-charte.shtml. de match,” La Presse, 19 March 2014, p.A12. Teisceira-Lessard, Philippe, “Françoise David voit une fracture entre les jeunes Maioni, Antonia, “The Québec Election et le PQ,” La Presse, 29 March 2014, of 2014 and the Unresolved Challenges p.A8. of the Parti Québécois,” Québec Studies, vol.58, 2014, p.139-152.

Marissal, Vincent, “Le luxe du temps,” La Presse, 14 June 2014. Retrived from http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/chronique s/vincent-marissal/201406/14/01- 4775785-le-luxe-du-temps.php

Montigny, Éric, Marc A. Bodet, Charles Tessier and François Gélineau, “La mobilisation du vote libéral est

120