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MELBOURNE CBD Office Market Overview

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MELBOURNE CBD Office Market Overview RESEARCH OCTOBER MELBOURNE CBD Office Market Overview HIGHLIGHTS • Despite the current economic uncertainty, the Melbourne CBD office market recorded a surprisingly solid net absorption result in the first half of 2012 and only a slight rise in vacancy. However the immediate outlook is less promising, having been adversely impacted by contractions within the finance and government sectors; vacancy is forecast to steadily rise over the next year. • The subdued labour market conditions have also stalled rental growth with incentives having risen over the year to date, and these elevated incentive levels are forecast to remain for up to 18 months. • Investor demand remains strong for quality CBD assets, with further transactional activity only hindered by the lack of opportunities. Given the constrained volume of transactions, yields have remained stable despite the increasing investor interest. OCTOBER 2012 MELBOURNE CBD Office Market Overview MELBOURNE CBD OVERVIEW Table 1 Melbourne CBD Office Market Indicators as at October 2012 Market Total Stock Vacancy Annual Net Annual Net Additions Average Net Average Average Core Market (m²)^ Rate Absorption (m²)^ Face Rent Incentive Yield (%)^ (m²)^ ($/m²) (%) (%) Prime 2,524,452 4.6 46,799 54,794 380 – 700 15 – 25 6.75 – 7.25 Secondary 1,625,541 7.1 2,293 -13,451 260 – 430 20 – 22 7.50 – 9.00 Total 4,149,993 5.6 49,092 41,343 Source: Knight Frank/PCA ^ as at July 2012 SUPPLY & DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY In the year to date, 55,868m² of office space New supply is forecast to pick up in 2013 with Of the new and refurbished supply currently has been added to the Melbourne CBD office 143,849m2 across five developments in the under construction, the vast majority are market, largely through the completion of 3 pipeline and a further 94,000m2 scheduled located in the Docklands precinct, accounting Collins Square and 990 LaTrobe Street, both for completion in 2014. Of the 237,849m2 that for 67% of scheduled completions. Marsh located within the Docklands precinct. A is due for completion over the next two years, Mercer, NAB, Aurecon and Medibank have all further 78,908m2 is anticipated to enter the 76% is currently pre-committed, leaving pre-committed to the new Docklands projects. market with five developments scheduled to 57,861m2 within the new developments The Docklands precinct now comprises more be completed by the end of 2012. In total, available for lease. Over the past 10 years, office space than the Southbank office 134,776m2 is forecast to be added to the the Melbourne CBD office market has added market and is forecast to be larger than the St Melbourne CBD office market in 2012, the approximately 3.7% of gross supply to the Kilda Road office market by mid-2014. largest annual stock addition since 2009. Of stock base each year. In comparison, Elsewhere within the CBD Core, Charter Hall the remaining new supply scheduled for between 2012 and 2015 the market will add and Cbus will jointly develop the Eastern completion this year, 55% has been leased. an average of 2.9% of gross supply per precinct’s first Premium graded tower in annum. twenty years at 171 Collins Street. Refurbishments account for 64% of the new supply anticipated to enter the market by the Figure 1 While there are a number of large end of the year. The speculative Melbourne CBD Supply requirements currently in the market, the refurbishment of 357 Collins Street is (m²) Supply (new & refurb) & commitment majority of mooted developments will require presently 69% committed having attracted multiple pre-commitments before proceeding 160,000 Commonwealth Bank and Service Stream. In Projection to construction. As a result, it is likely that addition, Holding Redlich pre-committed to 140,000 new supply will remain below the 20-year 28% of Juilliard Group’s refurbishment of 555 120,000 average for at least the medium term. Bourke Street. Developments nearing 100,000 Despite the high levels of pre-commitment completion having gained pre-committing 80,000 within developments under construction, the tenants who are migrating into the CBD 60,000 level of tenants contracting and consolidating include: Pearson who are relocating from 40,000 premises has increased. Over the next three Camberwell and Port Melbourne into the 20,000 years Knight Frank has identified around Goods Shed at 707 Collins Street (8,963m2), 0 2 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 of office backfill and sublease and Aurecon who are vacating South 224,100m space that will enter the CBD market which Melbourne for 850 Collins Street (15,940m2). Total Committed will provide further competition to landlords. Source: Knight Frank/PCA 2 www.knightfrank.com.au 1 357 Collins St # - 30,407 m² (CBA/Service Stream) Australand - Q4 2012 - 69% committed. 2 The Goods Shed - 12,518 m² (Pearson) Walker - Q2 2012 - 57% committed. 3 555 Bourke St # - 20,443 m² (Holding Redlich) Juilliard - Q3 2012 - 28% committed. 4 850 Collins St * - 15,940 m² (Aurecon) Lend Lease - Q4 2012 - 57% committed. 12 700 Bourke St - 61,000 m² (NAB) 5 Cbus Property - Q2 2013 - 100% committed. 11 22 6 1 Collins Sq - 35,000 m² (Marsh Mercer/CBA) Walker - Q2 2013 - 86% committed. 4 7 171 Collins St - 29,057 m² (BHP) Charter Hall/Cbus - Q2 2013 - 49% committed. 8 150 Collins St - 20,000 m² (Westpac) APN/Grocon - Q3 2014 - 73% committed. 9 313 Spencer St - 27,000 m² (Victoria Police) Cbus/Aust Post - Q4 2014 - 100% committed. 10 720 Bourke St - 47,000 m² (Medibank) Cbus Property - Q3 2014- 64% committed. 25 23 14 26 11 851 Collins St - 20,000 m² 15 Lend Lease - 2014+ 29 6 13 10 12 855 Collins St - 40,000 m² Lend Lease - 2014+ 2 5 13 2 Collins Sq - 50,000 m² 32 Walker - 2014+ 14 4 Collins Sq - 20,000 m² 32 20 Walker - 2014+ 15 5 Collins Sq - 35,000 m² Walker - 2014+ 30 9 567 Collins St - 52,000 m² 16 APN/Leighton Properties - 2014+ 555 Swanson St (CUB Site) - 36,000 m² 17 Grocon - 2015+ 16 Freshwater Place Stage 3 - 42,500 m² 18 Australand - 2015+ 19 82 Collins St - 38,000 m² Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC) - 2015+ 20 664 Collins St - 45,000 m² 28 Mirvac - 2015+ 3 21 360 Collins St - 34,000m² DEXUS - 2016+ 395 Docklands Dve - 22,000 m² 22 18 33 MAB - 2015+ 23 1000 Latrobe St - 32,500 m² Digital Harbour - 2015+ 24 180 Flinders St - 20,000m² DEXUS - 2015+ 685 Latrobe St - 33,000 m 21 25 ² 1 Charter Hall & Flagship - 2015+ 31 26 Harbour Tce - 10,000 m² 27 Digital Harbour - 2015+ 27 b|e South - 27,000 m² Colonial First State - 2014+ 570 Bourke St - 27,000m² 28 Charter Hall - 2015+ 29 North Wharf - 20,000m² WTC Asset Management - 2015+ 17 30 601 Flinders St - 60,000 m² Eureka/Asset 1 - 2015+ 24 399 Bourke St - 63,000 m² 7 2931 Brookfield - 2016+ 8 Sites 5B & 6B - 100,000 m² 32 Lend Lease - 2016+ 34 33 447 Collins St - 80,000 m² ISPT - 2017+ 34 Fed Square East - 60,000 m² State Government - 2016+ 19 Under Construction DA Approved / Confirmed / Site Works Mooted / Early Feasibility NB. Dates are Knight Frank Research estimates Major tenant precommitment in brackets next to NLA # Major refurbishment Office NLA quoted 3 * Sold to CIMB Trust (Nov-11) OCTOBER 2012 MELBOURNE CBD Office Market Overview In terms of quality grades, for the majority, consolidations and the likely rise of sublease TENANT vacancies rose in the six months to July 2012. vacancy. Beyond 2013, white collar Whilst prime grade office vacancies rose 50 employment is forecast to recover back to basis points to 4.6% - it remains below the historical averages. DEMAND & 10-year average of 5.7%. Although vacancy Figure 2 within Premium grade accommodation Melbourne CBD Net Absorption increased from 5.9% to 6.6% as at July, (m2) per six month period RENTS Knight Frank’s current estimates indicate that the grade has now fallen below 6.0%. A- 80,000 While the number of people employed in Projection grade vacancies rose largely as a result of Victoria is approximately the same as 12 60,000 tenant relocations and are forecast to remain months ago, more people are working part variable given most of the impending backfill 40,000 time with the Victorian economy shedding is within that grade. Secondary office stock 30,000 full-time jobs. Detailed employment 20,000 recorded a slight rise in vacancy overall, with data reveals that public sector employment vacancy in B-grade easing. 0 fell sharply over the year to August in Victoria, reflecting the tightening in government Surprisingly sublease vacancy in the -20,000 spending as outlined in the State Budget. Melbourne CBD office market fell in the first -40,000 Forward looking indicators of labour market half of 2012. While sublease vacancy fell to Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 conditions continue to point to soft 0.6% as at July 2012; anecdotal reports employment growth over the remainder of indicate that several tenants are now seeking Source: PCA/Knight Frank 2012. to sublease some of their existing space; although not all tenants have physically Anticipated Vacancy Levels Despite Victoria’s soft employment vacated the accommodation. Knight Frank is conditions, net absorption in the Melbourne Despite the surprising results of the first half currently tracking an additional 50,000m2 CBD office market recorded positive net of 2012, patchy tenant demand in 2012 to being offered by sitting tenants for sublease.
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