DOCSLIB.ORG

Demilitarization of Militias in Post-IS Syria Student Officer

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Demilitarization of Militias in Post-IS Syria Student Officer Dhirubhai Ambani International Model United Nations 2019 Forum: GA1 – Disarmament and International Security Issue: Demilitarization of militias in post-IS Syria Student Officer: Ishaan Goel Position: Deputy Chair Introduction The Syrian Civil War is arguably the worst civil conflict of the century, having drawn on for the past eight years. Almost 400,000 people have been killed and millions more have been displaced from their homes, either into other nations or to other regions within Syria itself. The conflict has several participants, ranging from the Syrian people themselves to foreign military personnel. However, the most notable belligerents have been the independent militias, formed in large numbers during the course of the war. The oldest of these are the anti-government rebel forces and pro-government militias, which have existed as long as the War itself. Till 2014, however, their numbers were limited. The formation and brutal rise of ISIL in 2014, along with the establishment of its theocratic caliphate, led to the rise of several reactionary groups to counter it. Some of them were even formed with foreign aid from nations such as the USA, Russia, Iran and Turkey. A large number of Arab tribes in Syria too formed their own militias. These militias all had one common objective – eradicating ISIL – but otherwise, they had little to nothing in common, often fighting amongst each other. After the defeat of the last stronghold of ISIL in early 2019, the issue of demilitarization of these militias has come to the forefront. With ISIL now almost completely vanquished, the militias are pursuing their individual interests in the Syrian Civil War. For example, Kurdish forces are using supplied arms to further their fight for autonomy in the Rojava region of Syria. They are even contributing to separatist movements in Turkey and Iraq for the formation of an autonomous Kurdish state. This has led to an increase in political tensions in the region, as shall be detailed later. There exists a real possibility of the beginning of infighting amongst the several militia groups, as has already happened several times in the past. For example, as recently as January 2019, the National Liberation Front, a rebel group, engaged in battle with Tahrir-al-sham, a radical Research Report | Page 1 of 24 Dhirubhai Ambani International Model United Nations 2019 Salafist group1. Moreover, the presence of militias has led to the emergence of several illegal arms black markets and flourishing drug trades. All these events pose a risk to the already fractured Syrian economy and political conditions. Fighting between militias has also had adverse effects on ethnic unity within Syria, while also leading to the destruction of more government infrastructure. Moreover, an extensive use of child fighters has been noted in the Syrian militias, with 851 documented cases in 2016 alone2 and the current, actual number expected to be several times higher. This is indicative of a worrying trend - the increase of involvement of minors in direct fighting. With 2.8 million children deprived of an education due to the war3, the future of skilled labour in the country has also been severely impacted. Demilitarization of militias in post-IS Syria is an urgent and critical issue. It is important for the maintenance of the political stability and security of not only Syria, but also its immediate neighbours. Moreover, mutual and co-ordinated demilitarisation is a crucial step in finding a solution to the decade long Syrian War as a whole as well as rejuvenating Syrian society. It will also serve as an end to the multiple proxy wars between foreign states taking place in Syria. Thus, it is imperative for the DISEC to act on it immediately. Definition of Key Terms Demilitarization For the discussion of this topic, it is important to define the process of demilitarisation. Demilitarization is defined well in the International Encyclopaedia of the Social and Behavioural Sciences as “the dismantling or demobilization of a military, and the eventual destruction of military equipment, the destruction of weapons and explosives, and the incineration and destruction of chemical and biological weapons.”4 The term “Demilitarize” can be understood to 1 “National Front for Liberation–Tahrir Al-Sham Conflict.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 9 June 2019, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Front_for_Liberation%E2%80%93Tahrir_al-Sham_conflict. 2 Turner, Laura. “Child Soldiers in Syria.” The Borgen Project, The BorGen Project, 23 July 2018, borGenproject.orG/child- soldiers-in-syria/. 3 “Nearly 5 Million Syrian Children AccessinG Education despite over Seven Years of War on Children.” Home Page, 23 Apr. 2018, www.unicef.orG/mena/press-releases/nearly-5-million-syrian-children-accessinG-education-despite-over- seven-years-war. 4 WriGht, James D. “Demilitarization.” Demilitarization - an Overview | ScienceDirect Topics, ScienceDirect, www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/demilitarization. Research Report | Page 2 of 24 Dhirubhai Ambani International Model United Nations 2019 mean “to do away with the military organization or potential of” or “to prohibit (something, such as a zone or frontier area) from being used for military purposes”. 5 Militias and insurGents The definition of a militia is quite ambiguous, with some publications limiting militias to pro- government activities and equating them to paramilitaries, while separating them from insurgent groups. For example, a militia has been described as an “armed group that acts alongside state security forces or independently of the state, aiming to shield local populations from rebels.”6 Insurgent groups, in turn, constitute insurgents. An insurgent is one who participates in an insurgency, which has been defined as “rebellion, riot or mutiny by portion of the citizens of the State against the established government.”7 For the discussion of this topic, militia can refer to either of these definitions, as is common practise. Armament and Disarmament Disarmament can be described as “a variety of measures designed to limit or reduce, both quantitatively and qualitatively, eliminate and cease the production of means of warfare.” It “may include limitation and reduction of military personnel of armed forces, and reduction of defence spending”. 8Armament is simply the inverse of disarmament, and can be understood as a set of measures to increase the production of means of warfare, as well as armed personnel and defence spending. Demilitarized and Buffer Zones A demilitarized zone is an area in which treaties or agreements between nations, military powers or contending groups forbid military installations, activities or personnel.9 A buffer zone, meanwhile, is defined as “a defined area controlled by a peace operations force from which 5 “Demilitarize.” Merriam-Webster, Merriam-Webster, www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/demilitarize. 6 Jentzsch, Corinna, et al. “Militias in Civil Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, SAGE Publications, 2015, journals.saGepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0022002715576753. 7 Gupta, Rashi. “RecoGnition of InsurGent and BelliGerent OrGanisations in International Law.” SSRN, Nirma University - Institute of Law, 28 June 2014, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2457749. 8 Tuzmukhamedov, Bakhtiyar. “Disarmament.” Oxford Public International Law, Max Planck Foundation for International Peace and the Rule of the Law, 6 June 2017, opil.ouplaw.com/view/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e289. 9 “PaGe.” Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East, by Michael B. Oren, Presidio Press, 2003, p. 7. Research Report | Page 3 of 24 Dhirubhai Ambani International Model United Nations 2019 disputing or belligerent forces have been excluded”. It is generally formed to “create an area of separation between disputing or belligerent forces and reduce the risk of renewed conflict”.10 The two are often combined, forming demilitarized buffer zones (such as the one between North and South Korea). Rojava Rojava (officially the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria) is the portion of Syria under control of the Kurdish people and a de facto state. Its definition remains unclear, with the constitution of Rojava stating “All cities, towns and villages in Syria which accede to this Charter may form Cantons falling within Autonomous Regions.” Cantons are the administrative regions of Rojava. So far, Rojava is believed to have 7 main regions in Northern and Eastern Syria – Jazira, Euphrates, Afrin, Raqqa, Tabqa, Manbij and Deir-ez Zor. The state is officially unrecognized, but it is largely free from government control Governorate A governorate is an administrative division of a country. It is headed by a governor. 11 BackGround Information BackGround of the Syrian Civil War The Syrian Civil War began as a part of the larger Arab Spring Movement in 2011, with the citizens of Syria protesting against the allegedly oppressive and nepotistic regime of President Bashir al-Assad, and demanding human rights. The government then led a violent crackdown on unarmed protestors, thus leading to multiple civilian casualties. This led to civilians taking up arms against the government, starting an armed conflict that snowballed into a civil war. It has since magnified in intensity, with the introduction of multiple new groups working for the attainment of individual interests. It has even become a proxy war between major foreign powers. 10 “Buffer Zone Definition (US DoD).” Military Weapons, 11 Law, Gwillim. Administrative Subdivisions of Countries: a Comprehensive World Reference, 1900 through 1998. Mcfarland, 2011. Research Report | Page 4 of 24 Dhirubhai Ambani International Model United Nations 2019 Early formation, support and armament of the militias The militias formed early in the war were mainly anti-government in nature. Of these, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), formed by defectors from the Syrian military who were trained in Turkey, was the most prominent. These militias initially armed themselves through theft from the military storehouses that they captured. Soon, they also received weaponry from the Turkish military and private donors from the Gulf region, particularly Kuwait.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • News of Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
    The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center News of Terrorism and the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict (September 1-6, 2010) Hamas spokesman Musheir al-Masri extols the terrorist shooting attack in Judea and Samaria (Al-Jazeera TV, August 31, 2010). Overview This past week events focused on the relaunching of the direct talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in Washington. According to media reports, both sides agreed their objective was to formulate a "framework agreement" within a year which would define the principles of a resolution for the conflict and the establishment of a Palestinian state. George Mitchell, the American envoy to the Middle East, said that Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas had also agreed to meet in the Middle East on September 14 and 15, and that they would continue meeting every two weeks. The opening session was accompanied by shootin g attacks carried out by Hamas and targeting Israeli vehicles in Judea and Samaria: An attack southeast of Hebron killed four Israeli civilians. In another shooting attack in eastern Samaria two Israeli civilians were wounded. A shooting attack northeast of Ramallah did not result in casualties. Responsibility for the attacks, which were intended to disrupt 248-10 the relaunching of the talks, was claimed by Hamas, which also threatened to maintain a dialogue with Israel "with guns." 2 Important Terrorist Events Shooting Attacks in Judea and Samaria On the evening of August 31 an Israeli vehicle was shot at near the Bani Naim junction southeast of Kiryat Arba in Judea. The four Israeli civilians in the car were killed.
    [Show full text]
  • Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’S Vision Yury Barmin, RIAC
    Discussion Paper (4) Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’s vision Yury Barmin, RIAC Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The emerging security dynamics and the political settlement in Syria”, Syracuse, Italy, 18-19 October 2018 1 The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 52-member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue. The GCSP trains government officials, diplomats, military officers, international civil servants and NGO and private sector staff in pertinent fields of international peace and security. Omran for Strategic Studies An independent think tank and policy centre focusing on presenting an objective understanding of Syria and the region to become a reference for public policies impacting the region. Omran began in November 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey. It publishes studies and policy briefs on Syrian and regional affairs in the areas of politics, economic development and local administration. Omran also conducts round-table discussions, seminars and workshops that promote a more systematic and methodical culture of decision making among the future leaders of Syria. Omran’s work supports decision-making mechanisms, provides practical solutions and policy recommendations to decision-makers, identifies challenges within the Syrian context, and foresees scenarios and alternative solutions. Yury Barmin Yury Barmin, is the Director for the Middle East and North Africa at MPG, a Moscow-based political consulting firm. He is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council covering the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria.
    [Show full text]
  • The Motives Behind the Establishment of the "National Army" Reserve to Turkey Abdel Nasser Hassou Introduction Popul
    The Motives Behind The Establishment Of The "National Army" Reserve to Turkey Abdel Nasser Hassou Introduction Popular protests in Syria quickly turned into a bloody conflict, which has claimed nearly one million lives since 2011, due to the impact of external, international and regional factors that the Syrian arena witnessed during the past years. As the revolution turned into its military phase, it suffered from wide political and military transformations. The factions multiplied. In 2014, the number of factions was estimated at 1,000, comprising at least 100,000 Syrian and foreign fighters, and their orientations varied according to the countries that support them. The territory under their control expended (at one time it reached 70% of Syria), led to bloody conflicts between them for control of the crossings and tunnels, encapsulating those conflicts with ideology and religious fatwas, and all attempts to integrate these factions and unify them failed. In practice, the armed revolution since 2013 has not succeeded in any central operation, and has not been able to carry out any battle with strategic and tactical objectives. In fact, most of the battles it fought were in response to the regional and international struggle for the influence in the field map. The establishment of the "National Army" is a Turkish necessity The first attempt to establish a military entity after the splits in the regular army was to establish the "Free Officers Brigade", at the initiative of renegade Lieutenant Colonel Hussein Harmoush, but the attempt failed after he was arrested by Turkish intelligence and handed over to the Syrian regime on the back of his disagreement with the Turkish leaders.
    [Show full text]
  • Reimagining US Strategy in the Middle East
    REIMAGININGR I A I I G U.S.S STRATEGYT A E Y IIN THET E MMIDDLED L EEASTS Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA958-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0662-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover composite design: Jessica Arana Image: wael alreweie / Getty Images Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • I. the Middle East and North Africa: 2016 in Perspective Dan Smith
    armed conflict and instability in the middle east 75 I. The Middle East and North Africa: 2016 in perspective dan smith Introduction The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remained at the heart of global security concerns throughout 2016. Events in the region continued to have a major impact on neighbouring areas and on the world stage, while the influence and actions of outside powers in turn had a crucial impact on the region. Because of its strategic location and natural resource wealth in oil and gas, it is an arena in which external powers compete for power, both directly and through local alliances. The region’s strategic significance for world peace and security thus remains as great and as troubling as ever. No single factor can explain its seemingly chronic insecurity and persistent susceptibility to armed conflict. A variety of factors need to be understood and addressed to help the region achieve greater stability and security for its people. These factors include governance failures in most Arab countries and the anger and resentment this has provoked, which led to a surge of popu- lar mobilizations in 2011 that at the time seemed set to transform the Arab world. Other factors relate to the still-unfolding consequences of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States-led coalition and the complex relations and rivalries between regional powers, most notably between Iran and Saudi Arabia. There is also an increasing tendency for the regional powers to intervene in the affairs of other countries in the region. In 2016 at least 7 of the 16 countries in the region used military force in combat on their own territory, and 11 on the territory of other countries (see table 3.1).
    [Show full text]
  • Losing Their Last Refuge: Inside Idlib's Humanitarian Nightmare
    Losing Their Last Refuge INSIDE IDLIB’S HUMANITARIAN NIGHTMARE Sahar Atrache FIELD REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 Cover Photo: Displaced Syrians are pictured at a camp in Kafr Lusin near the border with Turkey in Idlib province in northwestern Syria. Photo Credit: AAREF WATAD/AFP/Getty Images. Contents 4 Summary and Recommendations 8 Background 9 THE LAST RESORT “Back to the Stone Age:” Living Conditions for Idlib’s IDPs Heightened Vulnerabilities Communal Tensions 17 THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE UNDER DURESS Operational Challenges Idlib’s Complex Context Ankara’s Mixed Role 26 Conclusion SUMMARY As President Bashar al-Assad and his allies retook a large swath of Syrian territory over the last few years, rebel-held Idlib province and its surroundings in northwest Syria became the refuge of last resort for nearly 3 million people. Now the Syrian regime, backed by Russia, has launched a brutal offensive to recapture this last opposition stronghold in what could prove to be one of the bloodiest chapters of the Syrian war. This attack had been forestalled in September 2018 by a deal reached in Sochi, Russia between Russia and Turkey. It stipulated the withdrawal of opposition armed groups, including Hay’at Tahrir as-Sham (HTS)—a former al-Qaeda affiliate—from a 12-mile demilitarized zone along the front lines, and the opening of two major HTS-controlled routes—the M4 and M5 highways that cross Idlib—to traffic and trade. In the event, HTS refused to withdraw and instead reasserted its dominance over much of the northwest. By late April 2019, the Sochi deal had collapsed in the face of the Syrian regime’s military escalation, supported by Russia.
    [Show full text]
  • Assessing the French Perspectve on American
    ASSESSING THE FRENCH PERSPECTVE ON AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR THROUGH THE 2016 BOMBINGS IN ALEPPO AND FRENCH NEWS MEDIA by KATHERINE GOLAB A THESIS Presented to the Department of Romance Languages and the Robert D. Clark Honors College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts June 2020 An Abstract of the Thesis of Katherine Golab for the degree of Bachelor of Arts in the Department of Romance Languages to be taken June 2020 Title: Assessing the French Perspective on American Involvement in the Syrian Civil War Through the 2016 Bombings in Aleppo and French News Media Approved: Géraldine Poizat-Newcomb, Ph.D. Primary Thesis Advisor As two members of the United Nations’ “Big Five” countries, it is clear that France and the United States of America are both influential global powers. Since America’s independence, the two countries have shared a long and enduring political relationship, which has greatly shaped how each respective culture has influenced the other. Due to their shared history and interdependent power dynamics, current events play an important role in the maintenance of their relationship, which is also heavily present in their shared interests in the Syrian Civil War. This work includes the translation and analysis of 12 articles from four influential French news media organizations to document and explore the French perception of the United States through their news media outlets, in relation to the 2016 attacks on Aleppo. Since both countries have been actively involved in the conflict since its inception, this compilation and analysis sheds light on French-American cooperation, their political connections, and their social relationships.
    [Show full text]
  • Herein Is to Be Reproduced Or Adapted to Other Works Without the Expressed Written Consent of the Editors of the Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
    Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy A Harvard Kennedy School student publication Beyond Borders: Middle East In Empire, Diaspora, And Global Transitions This issue is dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the Syrian revolution Spring 2021 Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy Beyond Borders: Middle East In Empire, Diaspora, And Global Transitions This issue is dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the Syrian revolution Spring 2021 Spring 2020 i Staff Editor in Chief Associate Editors Reilly Barry Michael Johns, Jr. – Regional Security & Iran Gilad Kabilo – Military-Security & Israel Managing Editor Joseph Leone – Levant Ghazi Ghazi Xuechen Wang – Gulf Senir Staff Writer Mouhanad Al Rifay Staff Writers Christina Bouri Sumaya Malas Copyright The Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy does not accept responsibility for the views expressed by individual authors. No part of the publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form without the expressed written consent of the editors of the Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy. © 2021 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. Except as otherwise specified, no article or portion herein is to be reproduced or adapted to other works without the expressed written consent of the editors of the Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy. ii Journal of Middle East Politics and Policy Acknowledgements Martha Foley, Publisher Richard Parker, Faculty Advisor Tanner Jensen, Copy Editor Lilliana Ballesteros, Layout Design The Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy would like to thank a number of individuals and institutions whose support proved invaluable to the production of this edition.
    [Show full text]
  • Syria: Playing Into Their Hands
    Syria Playing into their hands Regime and international roles in fuelling violence and fundamentalism in the Syrian war DAVID KEEN Syria Playing into their hands Regime and international roles in fuelling violence and fundamentalism in the Syrian war DAVID KEEN About the author David Keen is a political economist and Professor of Conflict Studies at the London School of Economics (LSE), where he has worked since 1997. He is the author of several books on conflict and related problems, includingUseful Enemies, Complex Emergencies, Endless War? and The Benefits of Famine. Saferworld published a discussion paper by Professor Keen in 2015 entitled Dilemmas of counter-terror, stabilisation and statebuilding, on which this paper builds. Acknowledgements This discussion paper was commissioned as part of Saferworld’s work to challenge counterproductive responses to crises and critical threats and promote peacebuilding options. It has been managed and edited by Larry Attree and Jordan Street for Saferworld. Very valuable comments and advice, on all or parts of the text, were additionally provided by Rana Khalaf, Henry Smith, Fawaz Gerges, Rajesh Venugopal, Stuart Gordon, Paul Kingston, Sune Haugbolle, Leonie Northedge, Shelagh Daley and David Alpher. Any errors are solely the responsibility of the author. The author is grateful to Mary Kaldor at LSE for supporting the fieldwork component of this research, funded by the European Research Council. I am particularly grateful to Ali Ali for his guidance and inside knowledge during fieldwork on the Turkey-Syria border and for subsequent comments. Some people have helped greatly with this report who cannot be individually acknowledged for security reasons and my sincere gratitude extends to them.
    [Show full text]
  • Local Dynamics of Conflicts in Syria and Libya
    I N S I D E WARS LOCAL DYNAMICS OF CONFLICTS IN SYRIA AND LIBYA EDITED BY: LUIGI NARBONE AGNÈS FAVIER VIRGINIE COLLOMBIER This work has been published by the European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Middle East Directions. The Middle East Directions Programme encourages and supports multi-disciplinary research on the Middle East region - from Morocco to Iran, Turkey, and the Arabian Peninsula - in collaboration with researchers and research institutions from the region. Via dei Roccettini, 9 – I-50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) – Italy Website: http://middleeastdirections.eu © European University Institute 2016 Editorial matter and selection © editors and responsible principal investigator 2016 Chapters © authors individually 2016 This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the year and the publisher. INSIDE WARS LOCAL DYNAMICS OF CONFLICTS IN SYRIA AND LIBYA EDITED BY: LUIGI NARBONE AGNÈS FAVIER VIRGINIE COLLOMBIER TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION Luigi Narbone The Local Dynamics of Conflicts in Syria and Libya PART 1. THE SYRIAN CONFLICT Jihad Yazigi Syria’s Implosion: Political and Economic Impacts 1 Agnès Favier Local Governance Dynamics in Opposition-Controlled Areas in Syria 6 Daryous Aldarwish Local Governance under the Democratic Autonomous
    [Show full text]
  • UK Home Office
    Country Policy and Information Note Syria: the Syrian Civil War Version 4.0 August 2020 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies: x A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm x The general humanitarian situation is so severe as to breach Article 15(b) of European Council Directive 2004/83/EC (the Qualification Directive) / Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules x The security situation presents a real risk to a civilian’s life or person such that it would breach Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules x A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) x A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory x A claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and x If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002.
    [Show full text]
  • The Eleventh Hour for Idlib, Syria's Last Rebel Bastion
    Alert Published 6 February 2020 By International Crisis Group The Eleventh Hour for Idlib, Syria’s Last Rebel Bastion The Syrian regime’s deliberate but devastating campaign to retake Idlib has picked up in intensity, threatening death and displacement at levels unseen in Syria’s conflict, terrible as it has been to date. Damascus and its Russian backers must conclude an immediate ceasefire with rebel forces. The worst humanitarian catastrophe of the Syr- The regime and Russia have pursued Idlib’s ian war may be about to unfold. On 28 January, conquest in increments. On 29 April 2019, they forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad’s regime cap- launched what Russian officials described at tured densely populated centres south of Idlib, the time as a “limited” offensive geared toward capital of the north-western province of the pushing back rebel fighters from their positions same name that is the rebellion’s last redoubt. in northern Hama and southern Idlib prov- Russia aided the regime forces’ advance with inces. In off-and-on combat over the past nine brutal aerial bombardment. As the number of months, the Syrian army and Russian fighter civilian casualties grows, vehicles packed with jets have forced rebels from strategic positions Syrians – some of them already displaced twice along key roads with the apparent interim or thrice from other parts of the country – are objective of encircling and seizing the area’s streaming toward the Turkish border. Should larger cities. Assad greenlight an all-out offensive to retake The regime’s assault has exacted a terri- the entirety of Idlib, and Russia give it air sup- ble human toll.
    [Show full text]