The Motives Behind the Establishment of the "National Army" Reserve to Turkey Abdel Nasser Hassou Introduction Popul
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The Political Direction of Which Ariel Sharon's Disengagement Plan Forms a Part Is the Most Significant Development in Israe
FRAGMENTED SYRIA: THE BALANCE OF FORCES AS OF LATE 2013 By Jonathan Spyer* Syria today is divided de facto into three identifiable entities. These three entities are: first, the Asad regime itself, which has survived all attempts to divide it from within. The second area is the zone controlled by the rebels. In this area there is no central authority. Rather, the territory is divided up into areas controlled by a variety of militias. The third area consists of majority-Kurdish northeast Syria. This area is under the control of the PYD (Democratic Union Party), the Syrian franchise of the PKK. This article will look into how this situation emerged, and examine its implications for the future of Syria. As the Syrian civil war moves toward its The emergence of a de facto divided Syria fourth anniversary, there are no signs of is the result first and foremost of the Asad imminent victory or defeat for either of the regime’s response to its strategic predicament sides. The military situation has reached a in the course of 2012. By the end of 2011, the stalemate. The result is that Syria today is uprising against the regime had transformed divided de facto into three identifiable entities, from a largely civilian movement into an each of which is capable of defending its armed insurgency, largely because of the existence against threats from either of the regime’s very brutal and ruthless response to others. civilian demonstrations against it. This These three entities are: first, the Asad response did not produce the decline of regime itself, which has survived all attempts opposition, but rather the formation of armed to divide it from within. -
PRISM Syrian Supplemental
PRISM syria A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS About PRISM PRISM is published by the Center for Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal agencies, allies, and other partners Vol. 4, Syria Supplement on complex and integrated national security operations; reconstruction and state-building; 2014 relevant policy and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and education to transform America’s security and development Editor Michael Miklaucic Communications Contributing Editors Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct Alexa Courtney communications to: David Kilcullen Nate Rosenblatt Editor, PRISM 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) Copy Editors Fort Lesley J. McNair Dale Erikson Washington, DC 20319 Rebecca Harper Sara Thannhauser Lesley Warner Telephone: Nathan White (202) 685-3442 FAX: (202) 685-3581 Editorial Assistant Email: [email protected] Ava Cacciolfi Production Supervisor Carib Mendez Contributions PRISM welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from security policymakers Advisory Board and shapers, security analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United States Dr. Gordon Adams and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address above or by email to prism@ Dr. Pauline H. Baker ndu.edu with “Attention Submissions Editor” in the subject line. Ambassador Rick Barton Professor Alain Bauer This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense edition of PRISM. Dr. Joseph J. Collins (ex officio) Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted Ambassador James F. Dobbins without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. -
The Islamic Front by Aaron Y
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 2177 Rebels Consolidating Strength in Syria: The Islamic Front by Aaron Y. Zelin Dec 3, 2013 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Aaron Y. Zelin Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy where his research focuses on Sunni Arab jihadi groups in North Africa and Syria as well as the trend of foreign fighting and online jihadism. Brief Analysis The latest umbrella organization for key rebel factions in Syria may not include U.S.-designated terrorist groups, but it does oppose many U.S. objectives. he recent merger of several Syrian rebel groups into the Islamic Front (IF) is one of the war's most important T developments. Although the political and military opposition has long been fragmented, the new umbrella organization brings seven groups and their combined force of 45,000-60,000 fighters under one command. It also links the fight in the north and the south. Most notably, though, it affirms the troubles Washington will have setting policy in Syria going forward. WHO ARE THEY? F ormally announced on November 22, the IF includes groups from three prior umbrella organizations: the Syrian Islamic Front (SIF), the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF), and the Kurdish Islamic Front (KIF). From the SIF, Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (HASI), Kataib Ansar al-Sham, and Liwa al-Haqq joined, as did the KIF as a whole and former SILF brigades Suqur al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, and Jaish al-Islam. None of these groups has been designated by the U.S. -
Aleppo and the State of the Syrian War
Rigged Cars and Barrel Bombs: Aleppo and the State of the Syrian War Middle East Report N°155 | 9 September 2014 International Crisis Group Headquarters Avenue Louise 149 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. The Pivotal Autumn of 2013 ............................................................................................. 2 A. The Strike that Wasn’t ............................................................................................... 2 B. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant: from “al-Dowla” to “Daesh” .................... 4 C. The Regime Clears the Way with Barrel Bombs ........................................................ 7 III. Between Hammer and Anvil ............................................................................................ 10 A. The War Against Daesh ............................................................................................. 10 B. The Regime Takes Advantage .................................................................................... 12 C. The Islamic State Bides Its Time ............................................................................... 15 IV. A Shifting Rebel Spectrum, on the Verge of Defeat ........................................................ -
Download the Full Report
HUMAN “Maybe We Live RIGHTS and Maybe We Die” WATCH Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria “Maybe We Live and Maybe We Die” Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria Copyright © 2014 Human Rights Watch All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-62313-1425 Cover design by Rafael Jimenez Human Rights Watch defends the rights of people worldwide. We scrupulously investigate abuses, expose the facts widely, and pressure those with power to respect rights and secure justice. Human Rights Watch is an independent, international organization that works as part of a vibrant movement to uphold human dignity and advance the cause of human rights for all. Human Rights Watch is an international organization with staff in more than 40 countries, and offices in Amsterdam, Beirut, Berlin, Brussels, Chicago, Geneva, Goma, Johannesburg, London, Los Angeles, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, Tunis, Washington DC, and Zurich. For more information, please visit our website: http://www.hrw.org JUNE 2014 ISBN: 978-1-62313-1425 “Maybe We Live and Maybe We Die” Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 5 To All Armed Groups Fighting in Syria ....................................................................................... -
UK Home Office
Country Policy and Information Note Syria: the Syrian Civil War Version 4.0 August 2020 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies: x A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm x The general humanitarian situation is so severe as to breach Article 15(b) of European Council Directive 2004/83/EC (the Qualification Directive) / Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules x The security situation presents a real risk to a civilian’s life or person such that it would breach Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules x A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) x A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory x A claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and x If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002. -
Weekly Conflict Summary
Weekly Conflict Summary September 14-20, 2017 During the reporting period, pro-government forces and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, a Kurdish-led coalition backed by the US) both advanced around the ISIS-held city of Deir Ezzor, leading to a sharp increase in tension between the two as they maneuver close to one another. ISIS-held territory in Raqqa city continued to fall to SDF advances the reporting week and pro-government forces advanced against the group in eastern Homs/eastern Hama as well. Hai’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra) started another offensive for the northern countryside of Hama, to no real effect. A string of assassinations within Idleb targeted members of HTS. HTS formed an interim governing body to compete with the Syrian opposition’s Interim Government and a coalition of opposition forces expressed their discontent with the Astana process. Units in southern Syria have continued to develop their local police work and are aiding attempts to strengthen the Syrian opposition’s Interim Government that HTS opposes. Figure 1 - Areas of control in Syria by September 20, with arrows indicating advances since the start of the reporting period 1 of 6 Weekly Conflict Summary – September 09-14, 2017 Conflict around Deir Ezzor In the last two weeks, pro-government forces broke the ISIS siege around Deir Ezzor city, the offensive force has worked to expand its control over the city and surrounding area. This week, pro-government forces drove back ISIS fighters at least 10-15 km from the Deir Ezzor Military Airport, from which combat missions have been launched since. -
Timeline of International Response to the Situation in Syria
Timeline of International Response to the Situation in Syria Beginning with dates of a few key events that initiated the unrest in March 2011, this timeline provides a chronological list of important news and actions from local, national, and international actors in response to the situation in Syria. Skip to: [2012] [2013] [2014] [2015] [2016] [Most Recent] Acronyms: EU – European Union PACE – Parliamentary Assembly of the Council CoI – UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria of Europe FSA – Free Syrian Army SARC – Syrian Arab Red Crescent GCC – Gulf Cooperation Council SASG – Special Adviser to the Secretary- HRC – UN Human Rights Council General HRW – Human Rights Watch SES – UN Special Envoy for Syria ICC – International Criminal Court SOC – National Coalition of Syrian Revolution ICRC – International Committee of the Red and Opposition Forces Cross SOHR – Syrian Observatory for Human Rights IDPs – Internally Displaced People SNC – Syrian National Council IHL – International Humanitarian Law UN – United Nations ISIL – Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant UNESCO – UN Educational, Scientific and ISSG – International Syria Support Group Cultural Organization JSE – UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy to UNGA – UN General Assembly Syria UNHCR – UN High Commissioner for LAS – League of Arab States Refugees NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization UNICEF – UN Children’s Fund OCHA – UN Office for the Coordination of UNRWA – UN Relief Works Agency for Humanitarian Affairs Palestinian Refugees OIC – Organization of Islamic Cooperation UNSC – UN Security Council OHCHR – UN Office of the High UNSG – UN Secretary-General Commissioner for Human Rights UNSMIS – UN Supervision Mission in Syria OPCW – Organization for the Prohibition of US – United States Chemical Weapons 2011 2011: Mar 16 – Syrian security forces arrest roughly 30 of 150 people gathered in Damascus’ Marjeh Square for the “Day of Dignity” protest, demanding the release of imprisoned relatives held as political prisoners. -
Disillusion in Syria's Armed Opposition
Disillusion in Syria’s Armed Opposition America’s Arms-Length Approach to Syria is Backfiring. Nominally Western-supported opposition groups are rapidly losing members and losing ground, due in large part to ambivalent American policy. Mohammed Alaa Ghanem October 2013 ABOUT THE AUTHOR Mohammed Alaa Ghanem is the Senior Political Adviser, Government Relations Director, and Strategist for the Syrian American Council in Washington D.C. He holds a master’s de- gree in Peacebuilding and conflict transformation. He was a professor at the University of Damascus, and has been involved in the Syrian revolution since its early days as a peaceful protest movement. Ghanem has briefed U.S. government officials and policy makers in the executive branch and in Congress. His work and scholarship connect U.S. policy-makers and the Syrian American community with the revolution inside Syria. This con- nection is made possible by his extensive network of contacts at all levels of the Syrian opposition, his frequent trips to Syria, and his routine participation in international political and academic conferences on Syria. Applying his knowledge of American politics and international relations, he advises the local administrative councils emerging in liberated areas across Syria on international relations. In early 2013, he participated in monitoring the elec- tions of the first democratically elected government in Aleppo. Ghanem is also a non-resident research fellow at the Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies. At SCPSS, he has been in involved in SCPSS’ Syria Transition Roadmap, an ambitious post-Assad transition project. Ghanem is frequently quoted in the media, and his writings include an op-ed in the Washington Post, as well as two previous policy papers; “Syria: a Clear Path, a Comprehensive Strategy for the Obama Administration,” and “The Syrian Crisis: A Plan of Ac- tion.” He has appeared on CNN, Al Jazeera, MSNBC, and RT. -
The Best of Bad Options for Syria's Idlib
The Best of Bad Options for Syria’s Idlib Middle East Report N°197 | 14 March 2019 Headquarters International Crisis Group Avenue Louise 149 • 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 • Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Idlib’s De-escalation and the Sochi Memorandum .......................................................... 3 III. Idlib’s Rebel Scene ............................................................................................................ 6 A. Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham ................................................................................................ 7 1. HTS’s administrative and economic project ........................................................ 9 2. HTS’s ambiguous identity .................................................................................... 13 B. Other Jihadists ........................................................................................................... 17 1. Hurras al-Din/Wa-Harridh al-Mu’mineen operations room .............................. 17 2. Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria ........................................................................... 19 3. Miscellaneous jihadists ....................................................................................... -
The Syrian Armed Conflict: Nearing the End ?
THE WAR REPORT 2018 THE SYRIAN ARMED CONFLICT: NEARING THE END ? © ICRC JANUARY 2019 I MARIJA SULCE THE GENEVA ACADEMY A JOINT CENTER OF and interests amid the unrest. The struggle for power in the CONTEXT AND HISTORY OF THE CONFLICT1 region has drawn into the conflict countries such as the US, The Syrian armed conflict began in 2011 as a civil Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel and many others. To a degree, war, stemming from the Arab Spring protests. The Syrian the conflict has become more international in character, people started protesting in March 2011 in Daara against rather than remaining faithful to its non-international the corruption of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, civil war roots. The conflict is no longer only about Syria’s lack of political freedom and unemployment. The government and Assad’s corruption; in recent years, it has demonstrations took an ugly turn when the regime tried become a pawn in the geopolitical struggles of the Middle to crush the dissent by force.2 After the forceful response East.7 Having said that, the international community has to the demonstrations, protests against the regime erupted played an important role in trying to facilitate peace talks nationwide. The regime’s opponents started taking up between the Assad regime and the opposition groups. One arms and the unrest began its descent into civil war in July example is the Astana talks in 2017, which managed to set 2011, when a group of defectors from the Syrian military up de-escalation zones in Syria, sponsored by Russia, Turkey began forming the Free Syrian Army (FSA) with the aim and Iran,8 as well as the demilitarized zone brokered by of overthrowing President Assad’s regime.3 During the Turkey and Russia in the last remaining rebel stronghold in almost eight years of ensuing civil war, many parties have Idlib in September 2018.9 joined the conflict, including many rebel groups as well Approaching its eighth year, the Syrian war is one of the as other states, highly complicating the war. -
Turkish Militias and Proxies Erdoğan Has Created a Private Military and Paramilitary System
Turkish Militias and Proxies Erdoğan has created a private military and paramilitary system. He deploys this apparatus for domestic and foreign operations without official oversight. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak and Dr. Jonathan Spyer Drs. Yanarocak and Spyer are senior fellows at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS). Executive Summary Since 2010, centralized authority has collapsed in many Middle East states, including Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. States able to support, mobilize, and make use of irregular and proxy military formations to project power enjoy competitive advantages in this environment. Under President Recep Tayypp Erdoğan and the AKP, Turkey seeks to be the dominant regional force, projecting power over neighboring countries and across seas. In cooperation with a variety of bodies, most significantly the SADAT military contracting company and the Syrian National Army, Turkey has developed over the last decade a large pool of well-trained, easily deployed, and effortlessly disposable proxy forces as a tool of power projection, with a convenient degree of plausible deniability. When combined with Turkish non-official, but governmentally directed and well- established groups such as the Gray Wolves, it becomes clear that Erdoğan now has a private military and paramilitary system at his disposal. The use of proxies is rooted in methods developed by the Turkish "deep state" well before the AKP came to power. Ironically, the tools forged to serve the deep state's Kemalist, anti-Islamist (and anti-Kurdish) purposes now serve an Islamist, neo- Ottoman (and, once again, anti-Kurdish) agenda. Erdoğan deploys this apparatus for domestic and foreign operations without official oversight.