Yole Développement (Yole) Working with the Semiconductor & Software Division

From Technologies to Markets

Status of the Memory Industry

Market and Technology Report 2021

Sample

• Glossary and definitions 2 • Memory players and supply chain 186 • Table of contents 10 o Memory players – financial analysis 200 • Report objectives 11 o Supply chain mapping 216 • Scope of the report 12 o Merger and acquisitions and new companies 229 • Methodology & definitions 13 • Memory modules and storage drives 236 • About the authors 14 o Memory modules 240 • Companies cited in this report 17 o Storage drives 251 o Persistent memory 262 • Comparison with the 2020 report 18 • China’s memory landscape 272 • Who should be interested in this report 19 Status and prospects, investments, competitive landscape • Yole Group related reports 20 • NAND – market forecast 299 • Three-page summary 22 Revenues, market shares, ASP, shipments & demand, CapEx and more • Executive summary 26 • DRAM – market forecast 308 • Memory market – drivers and dynamics 69 Revenues, market shares, ASP, shipments & demand, CapEx and more o Datacenters 81 • Emerging NVM technology, forecast and players 317 o Mobile devices 92 Technology description, challenges, roadmap, forecast, main trends, and more o Automotive 98 • Embedded memory business – overview 342 o PC and consumer electronics 108 • Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the memory market 356 • Stand-alone memory market and technology 118 • General conclusions 361 o NAND market and technology 126 • Noteworthy news 365 o DRAM market and technology 150 • How to use your data? 374 o NOR flash and other stand-alone memory 171 • Yole Corporate presentation 375

4DS, Adata, Adesto, Advantest, Alliance Memory, AP Memory, Apacer, Apple, Applied Materials, ASE Tech. Hold., ASML, Avalanche, Buffalo, Canon, Centon, CXMT, Cisco, CNE, Crocus, Crossbar, Cypress, Dell, Dosilicon, Etron, ESMT, Everspin, Facebook, Ferroelectric Memory Company, Fidelix, Freescale, Fudan Microelectronics, Fujitsu, Fusion IO, GigaDevice, GlobalFoundries, Google, GSI Technology, H-Grace, Hikstor, Hitachi, HLMC, Honeywell, HP, Huawei, IBM, IDT, IMEC, Infineon, Intel, ISSI, JHICC, Kingston, KLA Tencor, Kioxia, Lam Research, Lapis, Lenovo, Longsys, Liteon, Lyontek, Macronix, Marvell, Maxio, Maxim, Materion, MediaTek, Microchip, Micron, Montage Technology, Nantero, Nanya, Naura, Nikon, NEC, NetApp, NetList, Numonyx, NXP, ON Semiconductors, Panasonic, Phison, Powerchip, Powertech, ProMOS Technologies, Qualcomm, Rambus, Reliance, Realtek, Renesas, Rohm, Samsung, SanDisk, Seagate, Semtech, Silicon Motion, SK hynix, SK Materials, Smart Modular Technologies, SMIC, Sony, SPIL, SST, Spin Memory, STMicroelectronics, STEC, Swissbit, TDK, Texas Instruments, Tezzaron, TEL, Teledyne e2v, TowerJazz, TPSCo, Transcend, Tsinghua Unigroup, TSMC, UMC, UniIC Semiconductors, Unimos Microelectronics, Viking, Violin Memory, Weebit, Western Digital, Winbond, XFab, XMC, YMTC, Chinese emerging NVM players and more…

Simone Bertolazzi, Ph.D.

Simone Bertolazzi, PhD is a Senior Technology & Market analyst at Yole Développement (Yole) working with the Semiconductor & Software division. He is member of the Yole’s memory team and he contributes on a day-to-day basis to the analysis of memory technologies, their related materials and fabrication processes. Simone obtained a PhD in physics in 2015 from École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (Switzerland), where he developed novel flash memory cells based on heterostructures of two-dimensional materials and high-κ dielectrics.

[email protected]

Walt Coon

Walt Coon is VP of NAND & Memory Research is a member of the Semiconductor, Memory & Computing division, at Yole Développement (Yole). Based in the US, Walt is leading the day-to-day production of both market updates and Market Monitors, and is deeply involved in the business development of these activities. Prior to Yole, Walt spent 16 years at Micron Technology. Walt Coon earned a Master of Business Administration from Boise State University (Idaho, United-States) and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from the University of Utah (United-States).

[email protected]

Mike Howard Mike Howard is a member of the memory team at Yole Développement (Yole) as VP of DRAM & Memory Research. Mike is based in the US. Mike’s mission at Yole is to deliver a comprehensive understanding of the entire memory and semiconductor landscape via market updates and Market Monitors. Mike is also deeply involved in the business development of these activities. Prior to Yole, Mike worked at IHS and Micron Techonology. Mike earned a Master of Business Administration at The Ohio State University (United-States), a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering and a Bachelor of Arts in Finance at the University of Washington (Washington, United-States).

[email protected]

Preexisting information

Market Volume (in Munits) ASP (in $) Revenue (in $M)

Information Aggregation

Stand-Alone Memory Markets andTechnologies

EPROM, ROM, etc. (NV)SRAM / FRAM Emerging NVM NOR (NV)SRAM EEPROM (incl. 3D XPoint) NOR DRAM NAND

NAND DRAM

Storage and Memory Modules NEW New Memories (3D XPoint, MRAM, etc.)

Key End-Markets and End-Systems Your needs are out of scope of this Datacenters - Severs and Enterprise report? Mobile – Smartphones Contact us for a custom study: Client – PC, client SSD Automotive – Vehicles (incl.ADAS systems)

Leveraging on a sound expertise in memory technologies and related markets, Yole decided to publish this report “Status of the Memory Industry” to provide the broadest overview of the overall memory industry. The main objectives of the report are as follows:

(1) Provide a comprehensive overview of the stand- (2) Present technology trends alone memory market: • Future developments by technology • NAND and DRAM market trends, including revenue and • Memory packaging technology trends bit demand-shipment forecasts • Challenges and opportunities for emerging NVM • Market size and dynamics for other stand-alone memories: • Scaling and functional roadmaps • Storage and memory modules: technology and market trends ▪ Stand-alone NOR Flash

▪ Emerging NVM (PCM, MRAM, RRAM) (3) Describe the supply chain and the memory ecosystem

▪ RAM: (NV)SRAM, FRAM, etc. • Mapping of the supply chain from materials and equipment suppliers to module makers (SSD, DIMM) ▪ EEPROM, EPROM, mask PROM/ROM • Financial analysis of key memory players involved in the • China’s memory-market landscape NAND, DRAM and NOR businesses

• Analysis of the Chinese memory players

Status of the Memory Industry 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 7 COMPARISON WITH THE 2020 REPORT What we saw, what we missed What we saw: o Market: • NAND and DRAM market revenues for 2020 were estimated to be $59B and $66B, respectively. The actual results were $56B for NAND (~5% overestimate) and $67B for DRAM (~1.5% underestimate). o Technologies • Technology development is advancing at fast pace:176L 3D NAND and 1훼 DRAM were announced in Q4-2020/Q1-2021. o Players: • At FMS 2019, Yole presented a NAND consolidation scenario based on the acquisition of Intel’s NAND business by SK hynix and the rumored acquisition of Kioxia by the top American NAND suppliers (WD/Micron). What we missed: o Market: • The anticipated 2020 NAND recovery failed to fully materialize as impacts from COVID-19 and worsening trade tensions between the US and China provided a strong headwind to the market. Despite these challenges, both supplier revenue and profitability improved in 2020, indicative of just how far NAND market conditions had deteriorated in 2019, when blended pricing fell by 49%. o Players &Technologies: • The decision of Micron to dismiss 3D XPoint activities and sell the Lehi fab makes the future of Optane Persistent Memory uncertain. By the end of 2021 Intel will be the only player involved in 3D XPoint development and manufacturing; the other memory IDMs – including Micron – will focus on products that leverage the CXL protocol, which is gaining steam as a future interconnect for “far memory” (high-capacity DRAM and storage class memory).

• The stand-alone memory market is cyclical in nature, as it is characterized by periods of shortages and oversupply that give rise to strong price variations and revenue volatility. • Memory is one of the primary market segments for semiconductor products. In 2020, combined NAND and DRAM revenues corresponded to XX% of the overall semiconductor market.

Semiconductor and Memory Revenues ($B) Semiconductor and Memory Market Annual Growth Rates (%) 500 50% 80%

400 40% 60%

40% 300 30%

20% 200 20% 0%

100 10% -20%

0 0% -40% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Worldwide Semiconductor Sales Memory Revenues (NAND+DRAM) Total Semiconductor Memory (NAND + DRAM) Memory / Semiconductor (%)

• NAND and DRAM account for ≈XX% of the overall stand-alone memory market. • Combined NAND and DRAM revenue is estimated to be ≈ $XXXB in 2020, up XX% from 2019.

180 80% 2020 Memory Market - Breakdown by Technology Yole Développement © May 2021 160 60% EPROM, ROM, etc. Emerging NVM (NV)SRAM / FRAM (incl. 3D XPoint) 140 (%) Growth Revenue

NOR 120 40%

100 20% 80

Yole Développement © May 2021

Revenue Revenue in $B 60 0%

NAND DRAM 40 -20% 20

0 -40% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DRAM NAND Forecast growth (%) Total Stand-Alone Market in 2020 ≈ $XXXB

DRAM Content NAND Content

10 000 10 00060% 60% 57%

1 000 1 00045% 45% 26 - 35% 100 10030% 30% 23% 22% 22% 19% 20 CAGR 10 16% 15% 16%

13% 12% 10 15% GB per System per GB 1 0%1 0% Server Smartphone Tablet Vehicle PC Enterprise Client SSD Smartphone Tablet Vehicle SSD

10 000 10 00050% 50% 2020 2026 CAGR 20-26 1 000 1 00035% 35%

31% 26 - 26% 100 10020% 20% 15%

8% 20 CAGR 10 5% 5% 105% 5% 2% 2% 0% US$ per System per US$ -3% 1 -10%1 -10% Server Smartphone Tablet Vehicle PC Enterprise Client SSD Smartphone Tablet Vehicle SSD Status of the Memory Industry 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 11 MEMORY WAFER DEMAND BY END-MARKET SEGMENTS Datacenter and mobile will be the dominant categories, automotive is the fastest growing segment

Combined NAND & DRAM Wafer Demand 50 CAGR20-26~XX% 45 Yole Développement © May 2021 40 Other CAGR20-26 ~ XX%

Auto CAGR20-26 ~ XX% 30

25 Consumer CAGR20-26 ~ -XX% 20

15 Mobile CAGR20-26 ~ XX%

Datacenter CAGR20-26 ~ XX% 5

0 PC CAGR20-26 ~ -XX% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

• Samsung remains the undisputed leader in the SSD and Mobile segments (largest markets) followed by the Kioxia and Western Digital. • Samsung does not focus on the Removable & Consumer segment, which is dominated by Kioxia and Western Digital with a combined market share over XX%.

NAND Revenue Market Share 2020 by Application

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40% SSD Mobile Removable & Other Consumer 30%

20%

10% Total 2020 NAND market 0% ~$XXB SSD Mobile Removable & Other Consumer Samsung Kioxia Western Digital Micron SK hynix Intel YMTC Other

XXX XXX Samsung XXX XXX XXX XXX Kioxia XXX XXX XXX XXX WDC XXX Yole Développement © May 2021 XXX XXX XXX Micron XXX XXX XXX XXX SK hynix XXX XXX INT-96L XXX Intel XXX XXX XXX XXX YMTC XXX XXX 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 2026 2026 Before 2020

• Samsung is leading the two largest market segments – Datacenter and Mobile – as well as Graphics and Consumer segments. • SK hynix and Samsung are the top players for PC DRAM, whereas Micron leads the Automotive DRAM market.

DRAM Revenue Market Share 2020 by Application

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40% PC Datacenter Mobile Graphics Consumer Auto 30%

20%

10% Total 2020 DRAM market 0% ~$XXB PC Datacenter Mobile Graphics Consumer Auto Other

Samsung SK hynix Micron Nanya Winbond Powerchip CXMT Other

XXX Yole Développement © May 2021

Samsung XXX XXX

XXX

XXX SK hynix XXX

XXX

XXX Micron XXX

MU-1βnm

XXX

Nanya XXX

XXX

XXX CXMT XXX XXX

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Before 2020

* Roadmap threshold: 10,000 WPM shippable production Status of the Memory Industry 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 16 NAND AND DRAM MANUFACTURING COMPLEXITY IS GROWING Scaling NAND and DRAM is a capital-intensive business!

Industry Capex per % of bit growth (in $B) 1,6 NAND DRAM 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 2020 2021 2022 2023

Example: 3D NAND WFE Market Evolution

2020 2025 ~$B ~$17.5B

CAGR20-25: +14%

Lithography Deposition Dry etching Status of the Memory Industry 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 17 MEMORY MODULE SHIPMENTS (2020-2022) Shipments by connection standard (interface): DDR3, DDR4 and DDR5

PC Module Shipments (in Mu) PC Module Shipments Breakdown by interface 400 100%

300 80%

60% 200

40% Volume (Mu) Volume 100 shipments of % In 2021, DDR4 is 20% the leading 0 0% interface utilized 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 in PC and server DDR3 DDR4 DDR5 modules. DDR5 Computers Personal DDR3 DDR4 DDR5 will take off in the Server Module Shipments server reaching Server Module Shipments (in Mu) 40% of the server Breakdown by interface 200 volume shipments 100% in 2022. 150 75%

100 50%

Servers

% of shipments of % Volume (Mu) Volume 50 25%

0 0% 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 DDR3 DDR4 DDR5 DDR3 DDR4 DDR5

Client SSD Shipments Client SSD Shipments Breakdown by interface Breakdown by form factor 100% 100%

75% 75%

50% 50% PCIe with the

NVMe protocol shipments of % 25%shipments of % 25% continues its penetration in both SSDs Client client and gamingother)and (PC, 0% 0% enterprise 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 segments. The most SATA (AHCI) PCIe (NVMe) 2.5" mSATA/M.2 BGA common form factor for client and Enterprise SSD Shipments Enterprise SSD Shipments enterprise will be Breakdown by interface Breakdown by form factor mSATA/M.2 and 100% 2.5’’/U.2, 100%

respectively. attached) - 75% 75%

50% 50% and and server

- 25%

25%shipments of % % of shipments of %

0% 0% Enterprise SSDs Enterprise (storage 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 SATA (AHCI) PCIe (NVMe) SAS 2.5"/U.2 mSATA/M.2 EDSFF AIC/other

NAND DRAM NOR 3D XPoint

Micron is the only player focusing on all four major stand-alone technologies. However, in March 2021 they announced the intention to cease In October 2020, the long- all 3D XPoint rumored acquisition of Intel’s activities. NAND business by SK hynix WD acquired Intel-Micron JV - IMFT has finally materialized, but SanDisk in 2016 (from 2006 to 2019) 3D XPoint is not included in this transaction. Alliance: Kioxia-WD Micron acquired Inotera memory from Nanya in 2016 In 2018, SK hynix and Cypress formed a JV for NAND flash business

In 2019, Cypress was acquired by Infineon, and has started a JV with SK hynix, SkyHigh Memory, which Cypress and Spansion focuses on SLC NAND merged in 2014 Due to supply-chain disruptions induced by the trade war in 2020, GigaDevice shifted its NOR orders from SMIC to HLMC.

Closing in progress 2020 NAND Market Share Pro Forma 2020 NAND Market Share

YMTC Other

Intel

SK hynix Samsung SK hynix + Intel

Micron + Kioxia + WD Potential M&A Micron

Samsung WD Kioxia

What does it mean to the market? • This is the consolidation scenario that results in a landscape most like DRAM. In this scenario all NAND players would have access to DRAM technology (exceptYMTC), and all would have ample market share to compete long term. • Micron would gain scale via Kioxia and enterprise know-how via Western Digital; while SK hynix would gain share and an immediate presence in the enterprise space via Intel.The market would be in a much better position to withstand the likely emergence ofYMTC from China.

Disclaimer: consolidation scenarios are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as endorsements or predictions by Yole. Status of the Memory Industry 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 23 SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSIS – PLAYERS’ MAPPING

Contact our Sales Team for more information Equipment and Materials for Neuromorphic Computing 3D-NAND Manufacturing 2020 and Sensing 2021

Contact our Sales Team for more information Intel Optane 128GB DIMM YTMC 3D NAND Flash Memory

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