AN URBAN PLANNING METHOD FOR MODELLING ENERGY USE WITH APPLICATION TO SELICTED CANADIAN CITIES

A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED iN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

By

AVRUM REGENSTREIF

FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES THE UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA i987 Permission has been granted L'autorisation a êtê accordée to the National LibrarY of à la Bibliothèque nationale Canada to microfilm this du Canada de microfilmer thesis and to lend or sell cette thèse et de Prêter ou copies of the film. de vendre des exemPlaires du f ilm. L'auteur (titulaire du droit The author (coPYright owner) les has reserved other d'auteur) se rêserve publication rights, and autres droits de Publication; ãeittrer the tTresis nor ni Ia thèse ni de longs from it extraits de ceIle-ci ne extensive extracts imPrimês ou may be PrinLed or otherwise Aoivent être reiroauJea without his/her autrement reProduits sans son writLen permission. autorisation êcrite.

rsBN 0-31-5*3?413"6 AN URBAN PI.1\NNING HETHOD FOR I()DELLING

ENERGY IISE IJITE ÁPPLICÂTION TO

SELECTED CANADIÂN CITIES

BY

AVRT'H REGENSTREIF

A tllesis sr¡b¡¡rittcd to tllc l-aculty of Cracluate Studies of tl¡e Urliversity of Ma¡litoba in partial futtìllnle¡¡t of the requirer¡e¡ts of tlre degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY @ t987

Per¡nission has beer¡ grar¡ted to tlre LIBRARY oF THE uNlvER- slrY oF MANITOBA ro rend or seil copies of ttris rrresis. to the NATIONAL LIBRARY oF CANADA ro microlirnr rhis thesis a¡rd to lend or sell copies of the film, and uNIVERs¡Ty MICROFILMS to publish an absrract of this thesis.

The author reserves other publicat¡o¡¡ rights, and neither the thesis nor extensive extracts from it may be printed or other- wise reproduced without the author's writtell permission. (i )

ACKNOI.ILEDGEI.IENÏS

In this work a variety of people and organizations have provided encouragement and support over many years and at least some should be noted.

Dn. Martjn tledepohl, formen Dean of Engineering at the U n i ve rs'i ty of Man'itoba necognized a need for this type of reseanch and had confidence in my ability to undentake it, 'initia'lly in the Facu I ty of Engìneening. Thanks are due to the Faculty of Graduate Studies for uliimately-pr.ovidi ng a home for this j ntend'iscipì i nar"y work. Sincere appreciation is due to nembers of my dissertation comm'i ttee; Dr. fãi i x Arscott (Appl i ed Mathemati cs ) , Dr. Rì chard Foster (Geography), and Dr. Jaspen McKee (Physìcs), who gave generously of ifrei i tìmä and effont to nev'iew and comment on the work. However, special thanks ane due to Professor Ralph Harnis (Economics), the cbmmittee chajrman. hlithout his patient adv'ice' encounagement and sustai ned gui dance thjs wonk woul d not have been poss'ibl e. Any shortcomings'in the work however, are strict'ly my own. Fon contribut'ions of original data base matenial , special thanks are due to Bent Gregory, Managen of Computer Senvices, Greater Wi nn'iPeg Gas Company, Winn'ipeg; Wayne Stangl, Manager of Compute r Servi ces, and staff membêrs Ron Engìot and Denn'is Moen, Saskatchewan Powe r Corporatìon, Regina; and John M'iì'ler, Computen Servjces Analyst, Northwestern Utilities Ljmitecl, Edmonton. Appreciation 'i s al so due to SeniOr management of the ¡espective agenc'ies for authon ì zi ng theì r involvement of their respectìve staff on the project' the work was provided by doctoraì Financial support for gttawa, fellowships from Canä¿a Mo¡tgage and Housing Corporation, and grants from the Centre fon Transportation Stud'ies and the Transport ðentre at the Univer.sity of Manjtoba. Assistance with final productìon costs f r"om Mn. and Mrs. Tìbon Schiff is also gnatefu'l'ly acknowìedged. word pr^ocessing was effic'ient'ly.and pat'ientìy provìded by Ms. Donna Morasse and staff of DJM & Associates, Edmonton. F.inally, above all, my apprec'iation_of_continued support by my wife Rhoda, airá chil dren Lori, barrie and Joel , must be noted' The'ir ancl quaì'ity over f at.ience añd sacri f ice of shar"ed resources , space .tìme many years can neven be measuneci. I trust that the final product will in imãl ì part, justify the'ir faith and conf idence' (ii)

ABSTRACT

Th'i SStudy demonstnates a method of onganizìng, processing and model ì ì ng dat a for urban resident'ial energy use and applies jt to Canadi an P lai ns c'iti es. The method of fers expf icit control of f actot"s such as ho usi ng m'ix, dwelling age and condition, nes'idential densìty, travel d'is tan ce, and climate. These factors ane obscured in methods of unban enengv analysìs, which depend on extnapolat'ion of data from national o rnegional sources, or data from pnototypica'l dwellings. The method disaggregates residential data by urban tnacts, compares areal r^esidentìal energy use in alternatlve pr"ospectives and 'investigates residential enengy consumption, travel distance from the urban centre, and areal resident'ial density. Aggregated census and pubìic utiì'ity data and systematic dqvg'lopment.of estimated data are used in a procedure whjch jnvolves: (1) establishment of an urban labonatory of three large Plains c'ities. (2) determìnation of residentjãl energy consumption from real and estimated data; (3) simulation of time-related energy objectives using scenarios 'in a three-dimensional matnix; (4) select'ion of data for comparison of resjdential tnansport energy and intennal res'idential consumption; and (b) generat'ion of three-dìmènsjonal representations of areal resjdential enengy use for each selected citY.

An il lustrative app'l jcation of the method for three neal cities shows that: (1) as aneal residentìal density increases' energy consumptjon increases but less l'inean'lyi (2) areal res'idential energy use detr.eases w'ith d'istance f rom the urban centne, at least initiaì'ly' 'it may incnease laten due to concentrations of multip'le ql'it! ìn the outeisuburbs; (3) spec'ific residential areas are identifiable from their ener"gy use; (4) as reS'identìal energy effic'iency increases' clìfferencei in residentjal energy use between olden and newer areas cl.iminish; and (5) areal res'idential transport energy use decreases with nesidential distance from the unban centre. The method offers an analytica'l and monitoring technique fon urban planning which can be perióaically reìterated using systematic time-series data to present i:hree-dimeniional change 'in urban energy use. It can aì so provi de a f .irst appr"oximati on of expected enengy use characteri sti cs for other selecteä'cities and can 'identify where energy waste may be occurring. (i i i )

TABLE OF CONTEIÍTS

! ô (i ) ." o c o o " ' " ' ACKI{01{LEDGEI'IENTS " "" " " "" " " " " .."""'e"" (i i) ABSTRACT ...'..o"' """'"'

CHAPTER 1 I IF{TR0DUCTI0N """"".."""""'c".."""""""'c 2 1.1 BACKGR0UND'"'"..""".."""""c"..""""" 11 1.2 THE REGI0NAL ENVIRoNMENT .."e'ô"""..oc""""" 18 INVESTIGATION 1.3 THE URBAN CONTEXT FOR ENTRGY 31 1.4 THE PR0BLEM 'o""o".."c' """""o"""o" 35 1.5 KEY QUESTIONS """..""""'..' 'o'"'o""" """"' 3B II LITERATURE REVIET'I """"..""'

?JANOVERVIEt,J0FTHE-LITERATURE0N-ENERGYc0NSERVATI0N1e60 38 AND R;iAiËö ÚnanN P0LICY sINcE """""".." 51 PERSPECTIVES 2.2 URBAN MODELS AND ENERGY

z.3LITERATURE0FPARTICULARRELEVANCET0THERESEARCH 57 DESiGN 'o""".. ".."""""' ""' 96 ?..4 SUMMARY ...... """..' ""' """'"""' 99 ORGANIZATION OF DATA III RESEARCH DESIGN AND 99 OF THE RTSEARCH METHOD " " " " ' 3.1 GENERAL DESCR I PTION REAL ENERGY ENVIRONMENTS IN 3.2 DEFINIT TON OF RESIDENTIAL 100 aa"""" C ITIES """"'rt"""' RESiDENTIAL/COMMTRCIAL 3.3 DETERMINATION OF INTERNAL HõUSÈHOI-OS AND URBAN TRACTS ENERGY CONSUMPTIOÑ..Ëõii i03 u;;Ñc nrnr- AND ESTIMATED DATA ""'"''' '..''''

CONSUMPTION FOR 3.4 DETERMINATION OF ENTRGY CóñÈ TON SELECTED RESIDENTIAL JOURNEY.TO.WORK Tõ..îHË i11 iRÃôis' IN-THE sELEcTED ciTiES RESIDE$lrIAL ENTRGY 3.5 TDENTiFICATI0N 0F A BASE !Ey.tl-^9F 116 ôìïònÈrrõÑ or unsnN HousEHoLDs Äi'iHÊ' tfl 3.6 SUI''ll4ARY (i v)

IV RESEARCH I-IETHOD 119

4.1 THE URBAN LABORATORY - ITS DEVICES, THTIR PURPOSE AND APPLICATION ...... o o...... ¡ .. . . 119

4.2 THE USE OF HYPOTHETICAL CITIES TO ESTABLISH LIMITS FOR COMPARING URBAN TNERGY CHARACTERISTICS ... T2T

4.3 THE USE OF SCENARIOS TO COMPARE URBAN ENERGY CHARACTERISTICS ON A TIME SCALE ...... C ' 125

4.4 THE USI OF A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX TO COMPARE ENERGY CONDITIONS IN REAL CITIES I,IITH HYPOTHTTICAL CITIES ...... o ...... o ...... ô. .. . 133 r37 v APPLICATI0il 0F THE METHoD .... o...... e...... e...... G 139

SELECTED RESIDINTIAL ENERGY RELATED 5 "1 CONSIDERATION OF PARAMETERS IN REAL CITIIS ...... C " " .. ' 139

5.2 CONSIDERATION OF URBAN PARAMETERS IN REAL CITIES USING LIMITS FOR HYPOTHITICAL CITIES 153

5.3 THE USE OF SCENARIOS TO INVESTiGATE LONG TERM CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL ENTRGY PARAMETERS ...... I""""..... 164

5.4 THE USE OF THREE DIMENSIONS TO INVTSTIGATE CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN REAL AND HYPOTHTTICAL CITIES ...... 187

191 vI suMl.lARY, CoÎ{CLUSI0NS AllD P0LICY il'IPLICATIONS 198 6.1 OVERVIEW OF THE THTSIS ...... O" ".O' 198 6.2 AREAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH . ... . 202 6.3 CONC1USI0NS...... 204 6.4 POLICY IMPLICATIONS ...... 2r8

( v) (v'ii ) 225 233 240 (v )

LIST OF TABLES

Tabl e Numbe n T'itl e Page

1 A COMPARISON OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR SELECTED OtcD C0UNTRIES ...... 5

2 SECONDARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN CANADA . 1981 8

3 CLiMATE FOR 23 LARGE CANADIAN CITIES 27

4 ESTIMATIS OF ENERGY DIMAND FROM RENIWABLES BY THE YEAR 2025 . .... O ' B5

5 DENSITY AND ENIRGY CONSUMPTION CHARACTERISTICS FOR THRET SELECTED CANADIANPLAINSCITIES 8""" 110

6 SELECTED CENSUS TRACTS IN THREE CANADIAN PLAINS CITIES: ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR JOURNEY-TO-WORK TO THE CORE BY PUBLIC TRANSIT AND PRIVATE AUTO}4OBILE - SCENARIO I DATA FORMAT ..... lI2

7 SELECTED CENSUS TRACTS IN THREE CANADIAN PLAINS CITIES: ENERGY CONSUT4PTION FOR JOURNEY-TO-WORK TO THE CORE BY PUBLIC TRANSIT AND PRIVATE AUTOI4OBILE . SCENARIO I DATA r14

I FORMAT FOR COMPARISON OF RESiDENTIAL ENERGY AND RELATED PARAMETERS FOR REALCITIES ..... 118

9 FORMAT FOR COMPARISON OF RESiDTNTIAL AND RELATED INERGY PARAMETERS FOR REAL AND HYPOTHTTICAL CITIES T24

10 COMPARISON OF AGE AND CONDITION OF Dt,lELLING UNITS AND ENERGY C(]NSUMPTION FOR SELECTED TRACTS ... T44

11 COMPARiSON OF POPIJLATION AND RESIDINTIAL DTNSITY IN THREE SILECTED cITIts i4B (vi )

LIST OF TABLES (cont 'd )

Tabl e Numbe r Title Page

L2 ENERGY SYSTEM EFFICiENCY OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS 152

13 1981 DATABASE IN THE PLANE ADEF FOR A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX - SCENARTO I 158

14 1981 DATABASE IN THE PLANE ADEF FOR A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX - SCENARIO II 159

15 1981 DATABASE IN THE PLANE ADEF FOR A THREE.DIMENSIONAL MATRIX - SCENARIO iII O"' 160

16 ASSUMED 40 YEAR DATABASE IN THE PLANE ADEF FOR A THREE-DIMTNSIONAL MATRIX - ALL SCENARI0S .....o...... 163

L7 MATRIX SECTION PLANE DCFG . l,.llNNIPEG TRACT 014 . ALL CHARACTERISTICS FOR THREE SCENARIOS 1981-2021 165

18 MATRIX SECTION PLANE ABCD - ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - SELECTED TRACTS FOR ALL CITIES 177

19 MATRIX SECTION PLANE ABCD - ANNUAL RTSIDENTIAL DENSITY - ALL SCENARIOS 178 (vi i )

LIST OF FIGURES

Fi gu re Title Pa ge

I A COMPARISON OF RATIOS OF DAILY PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION TO PER CAPITA GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR 6 SELECTED U.N. COUNTRIES ...... C ' E

2 INTERIOR PLAINS AND PLATEAUS IN CANADA ...... o...... o.... " o"" " o """ 13

3 ALBERTA, SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA PLAINS .. 14

4 HYDRAULIC SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF THE NELSON AND CHURCHILL DRAINAGE BASINS 16

5 MEAN JANUARY TEMPERATURES IN CANADA 24

6 ANNUAL DEGREE DAYS IN CANADA 25

7 JANUARY DESIGN TEMPERATURES FOR DI^IELLINGS IN CANADA ...... 26

I ENERGY BALANCE SHEET FOR LINKOPING POWER AND HIATING COMPANY L974-75...... 54

9 A NOTIONAL LINEAR CITY PROTOTYPE FOR A NORTHERN REGION ...... 74

10 EDMONTON TRACT TYPES ..... i04

105 11 SASKATO0N TRACT TYPES ......

106 T2 I^'INNIPEG TRACT TYPTS .....

13 LIMITS IN HYPOTHETICAL CITIES USED TO ESTABLISH LIMITS FOR REAL CITIES 126

134 14 THE THRIE-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX ...... i5 THE RELATIONSHIP BETt,lTEN RTSIDENTIAL DENSITY AND DISTANCE FOR CHARACTERISTIC TRACTS ...... 141

i6 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION DENSITY AND CONDITION OF Dl^JELLINGS 145 (v]11 )

LIST OF FIGURES (cont'd)

F'igune Title Page

L7 THE RELATIONSHIP BETl^/EEN RTSIDENTIAL SiElli-88-::T:l::).iT?.f::.::...... 146

18 URBAN POPULATION AND SIZI . THREE CITIES ...... ' o " " ' 149

19 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND SIZE - THREE CITIES .... e. c...... o. o...... " " o " 149

20 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENTRGY CONSUMPTION . ALL CITIES - SCENARI0 I ...... o ô. 168

2L RESIDENTIAL AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - ALL CITIES - SCENARIO II 169

22 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENIRGY CONSUMPTION - ALL CITIES . SCENARIO III ...... o.... 170

23 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - WINNIPEG - THREE SCENARISS ...... L7l

24 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - SASKATOON - THREE scENARIOs ...... "..""""' L73

25 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RTSIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION . EDMONTON - THREE SCENARIOS . . o...... o. . .. L7 4

26 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - HYPOTHETICAL cITIES - THREE SCENARI0S ...... 775

27 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDINTIAL INERGY CONSUMPTION - ALL CITIES - THREE SCENARI0S ...... 179

28 RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCT TO THE CENTRAL CORE . ALL CITIES ...... ""'r"r" 182 (ix)

LIST OF FIGURES (cont'd)

Fi gu ne Title Page

29 RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RELATION TO ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE TO THE CORI . THRET REAL CITIES - ALL SCENARIOS ...... e. o...... à.. . 185

30 RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RELATION TO ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE TO THE CORI - HYPOTHETICAL CITIES 186

31 COMPOSITE OF RESIDENTIAL ENIRGY CONSUMPTION IN RELATION TO ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE TO THE CORE . ALL CITIES - ALL SCENARIOS 188

32 NOTIONAL RTPRESENTATION OF CHANGES IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION l^,ITH DISTANCE FROM THE CENTRE FOR THRET SELECTËD CiTIES - SCENARIOS I-lII ...... 190

33 CHANGING RATIOS OF RESIDENTIAL DENSITY TO RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR THREE CITIES OVER TIME (NOTIONAL). .. o...... o...... r92 ø CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION

Energy in renewable forms has always been essentjal 'in human Settlements. Howeven, the compleX environmenis which comprise large 'industrial'ized cjties consume substantial quantitjes of renewable and non-renewable energy, and an 'impontant determinant of growth and economic well-being of such cities is their abil'ity to use all available forms of energy efficient'ly. This capabi'lìty is panticular'ly important in climatically-stnessed cities where energy fon envjronmental j cond'i t'i onì ng , mobi ì i ty systems and other pu rposes s requi ned to majnta'in nes'idential ìifestyles under seasonally adverse condjtions. Consequentìy, in such enengy-sens'itive unban regions, the contjnued availability of energy choices over the'long term, the efficiency of thei n use and the abì I ity of cit'ies and thei r resident'ial areas to sh'ift to alternat'ive fOnms of energy, when necessany, ane impontant cons'iderations of ìong term urban ene¡gy secu¡ity. Convensely, * r.esjdential quality of life in cities, and concomitantly, the disposal i ncomes of urban househol ds , ì ncneasi ng'ly depend on energy ef f i c'ient means to satisfy res'idential energy needs.

Wìth more nes'identìal consumers able to exencise informed choices about residential fuels, enengy systems, dwelling types, transpont modes and resident'ial locations'in relation to journey-to-work, it is important to develop effect'ive methods to assess such choices'in terms of residential enengy consumption and enens¡y system efficjency. This d'issertation consjders an altennative method of model'ling of res'identjal energy consumption wh'ich is under either^ di rect or ind'irect control of res'i dent ì al cons ume rs .

-1- 2

In this chapter, background is provided on aspects of urban residential energy consumptjon and efficiency in a context of selected ì ar^ge pl ai ns ci ties; the urban and reg'iona1 env'i ronment of three labor^ator^y cities ìs descrìbed; the central pnobìem of thjs dissertat'ion i s def ined; and some ìmpor^tant questions f or^ pol i cy consi derati on are out I i ned.

1.1 BACKGROUND

Although energy and 'in particulan urban energy and efficiency considerations are'important in all industrial economies, they are essenti al in northern countri es. A speci a'l response to severe cl imatic condit'ions and enengy demands'is requi.red to maintain urban ìifestyìes. In Canada, effieìent use of energy is critical to jts ability to compete with the econom'ies of other northern countries. Because it has some of the least favourable economic and energy effìcìency ìnd'icators among developed economies and because urban energy consumption is an important factor jn such jndicators, the relat'ionship between unban energy consumption and urban development'is an'impor^tant consideration to # Canada's future competitiveness with respect to enengy.

To appreciate the signifìcance of urban enengy consumpt'ion as a component of nat'ional and regional energy performance, jt is useful to consjder some indicators of energy and national econom'ic behavjor'. These 'include: (1) energy investment as a component of national ìnvestment; (2) per capita consumptjon as an indicator of national energy performance; (3) energy consumption and end-use efficjency as factors'in economic penformance; (4) some characteristics of Canad'ian energy perfonmance and its urban and regional implìcat'ions; and finally (5) some d'imens'ions of urban energy consumption in the Canad'ian Plains. 3

1.1.1 Energy Investment as a Component of National Cap'ital Investment

During the 1970's, energy, hìstorically an essential component of capital investment and economic performance in jndustrial natìons, became an i ncreas'ingìy impor"tant i ndi cator to economi sts , p'lanners and other pol i cy makers, as worl d ener"!¡y markets were impacted by the actions of an international cartel , and fue'l prices increased rapid'ìy. Concern became acute in climatica'lly st¡'essed urban reg'ions, whene non-renewabl e energy suppì i es were 'imperati ve to economj c well-being, and where hjstorically 1ow energy prices had resulted ìn complacency about pnojections of longen term lim'its for non-renewable f oss'i I f uel s ( Hubbe rt 1969 ) .

In consjdering the relationship between enengy pnoduct'ion and 'in consumption and national or regional economic performance industrial jnvestment economies, enengy investment as a pnopontion of total capital .is an important ind'icator. Takjng the example of Western Europe in the years p¡ior" to 1973, the orìgina'l six common market countries spent ìn onder of 25 percent of thejr total capìta1 investment on energy. Similanly, between L970-73, 24 percent of investment capitaì in the U.S. economy went into energy pnoduction (Commoner L977). In the ean'ly 1970's the propontìon of Canada's capital ìnvestment jn the enengy secton was approximately 23 pencent (Gander and Bela'ire 1978). In pant, this level of natjonal investment jn energy refìected Canada's historic role as a net producer and expor"ten of enengy and energy-intensive raw jmportance maten'ials to major trading partners. It also'indicated the 'in of energy to the Ganadi an economy, and i n part'icul ar, to reg'ions whjch energy production was a majon component of the economic base.

1.I.2 Per Capita Consumpt'ion as an Indicator of Energy Penfonmance

In addit'ion to energy 'investment as a percentage of capìtaì i nvestment, anothen usef ul 'i ndi cator" 'is pen capi ta consumptì on of energy -4- and the ratio of energy consumpt'ion to gross domest'ic product (GDP). Fon exampl e, 'in 1979r among the 'industrial i zed countri es Canada had the hìghest per capita consumption of enengy at 9.3 l4toe* (OECD/IEA 1980). Thjs was followed by the U.S. at 8.5 Mtoe, and Sweden at 6.2 Mtoe (Table 1). Although, pêF capita consumption is useful as a comparable indicator of enengy consumption, it is not sufficient alone. Consequently, the noti on of comparing economi c gt"owth wi th per^ cap'ita energy consumption'is sometimes used.

In the 1970's, some analysts used a ratjo of per capita enengy consumption to gross national product (Cook 1976) For example, da'i1y pen capital enengy consumption jn kilocalories was sometimes compared with per capita gross nat'ional product (Figure 1). t'J'ith all countrìes placed on a common graph, a median l'ine of best-fjt establ'ished a shallow cunve of enengy use which pnov'idecl a crude indicator^ oflrelative effjciency of ener-gy use. The'incneas'ing slope of the curve represented incneased per capita enengy consumption with increased gross natjonal product. Natìons wh'ich were more enengy efficient r"eflected natios wh'ich pìaced them below the line of the best fit, and those which wene less effjc'ient wene above jt. 0n this scale, Canada was not on'ly the second highest per. capìta energy consumer, but also had the h'ighest ratjo of energy consumption per cap'ita in relatjon to gnoss natjonal product pen capita. Although this jndicaton suggested that of all the nations 'like anaìysecl, Canacla was least eff icient in 'its use of energy, many other countrìes, not all of its enengy was consumed ìnternal'ly, at least 30 per cent was exported. The value of comparing per capita enengy consumption wjth per capìta GNP (or GDP) has been questìoned on the gnouncls that structunal djffenences and efficiency differences are not adequately accounted for (Fowìer, 1984). It has also been suggested that ìn the'long run, "there ane no firm rules nelat'ing energy use to gr.oss national product" (Schjpper and Darmstadter 1978).

* 1 Million Tonnes of 0il Equìvalent (Mtoe) is equivalent to 28.8 gigaioules. 5

TABLE 1

A COMPARISON OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE TOR SELECTED OECD COUNTRITS.

Country Energy Pnoduction TPE* Energy Consumption Per Capita (1979) Economic Growth GDP (i979) TPE in Mtoe per capita

CANADA 1.17 9.3

UNITED STATES 1 .04 8"5

S hJEDEN 0.70 6.1

NETHERLANDS 0.74 4.9

WEST GERMANY 0 .58 4.7

UNITED KINGDOM 0. 88 4.0

DENMARK 0.48 4.0

JAPAN 0.59 3.2

* TPt: Total Pnìmar"y Enengy

Sounce: OECD/IEA 1980: 109 - 297 6

ENERGY CONSUMPTION FIGURE 1 A COMPARISON OF RATIOS OF DAILY PER CAPITA TO PER CAPITA GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR STLECTED U.N. COUNTR I T S United StatesO

200,000

1 80,000 O Canada

160,000

OJ

ãU 140,000 =J Iz Èts ã :) z o U o d z

ts E U ú

o? 60,000 d South AfricaO

40,000

ile Mexic 20,000 Colombia lraq Brazil S a Thai 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,s00 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 lnd ia Peru PER cAprrA cRoss NATIoNAL PRoDUcr lU.S. S) Burma Turkey Costa Rica Philippines

Ecuador fhere is a fairly good correlation between Morocco the energy consumption and the income ot Cameroun a nation. Countries above the median line lndonesia use energy less efficiently (in terms of production, at /eastJ than those below the line. Data are for 1970; for per cap'ita GNP, from Statìstical Abstract of the Un'ited States L972; for enengy consumPt ion from United Nations, Worl d -72. Stati st'ical PaPe r J.17

l^l. H. SOURCE: Earl Cook. I976. Man Enerqv and Soci etv. San Franci sco: F reema n and Co. I I92. 7

1.1.3 Energy consumptìon and Efficìency as Factons in Economjc

Pe nfo rmance

Levels of energy consumpt'ion and efficìency of energy use are also signifìcant factors in the comparatjve econom'ic performance of nat'ional econom'ies. For example, it js not coincjdental that whi le g¡oss Canada had the hjghest ratio of primary energy consumpt'ion to (Table domestic product among selected 0ECD countries'in 1980 1)' it gross also had high per capita energy consumpt'ion relat'ive to national Comrnoner product among u.N. countrjes'in the earìy 1970's (Figure 1)' has argued that poor economic performance by industria'l econom'ies'is jnefficient l'inked to high levels of energy consumption, use of energy' and inappropriate capìta] jnvestment in energy reìated technologies (Commone r L977).

past several S'ince the Second trlorl d War and pa rt'icul arly over the energy decades, canada's poor economic performance w'ith respect to by superior consumpt'ion and eff iciency has been underscored the in world performance of many industrial economìes with which it competes markets. For example, by the late 1970's, industrial econom'ies wh'ich had either caught had at one time trailed Canada and the United States (Tabìe up wìth or sunpassed both countrjes in many economic'ind'icators (schi pper and 1) rel ated to standar"d of I i vi ng ancl qual i ty of I'i f e clependence on fossì I L'ichtenberg 1976). Th'is has occurred despite heavy whjch canada and the fuels, wh'ich most OECD countries do not have but of Unjted States both have ìn relative abundance, and the necessjty jn which costly major post.war reconstructìon many OECD countries, Although some evjdence ne.ither Canada or the U.S. exper^ienced di rectly. 'inclustrial economies indjcates that better economic performance by some on more efficient has been, ìn part, a consequence of greater emphasis 1983), there ane also use of technology and cap'ital (stobaugh and Yerg'in jn some countries'it ìs othen neasons. colcord (1979) has argued that lar^ge scale pìanning' due to greaten socjal benefits of long range, shortcom'ings 'in the conver-sely, ìt has also been suggested that energy I

Un'ited States, one of the most advanced jndustnial econonìes, are due to fajlures of its short term market economy to envisage and nespond to long term energy probìems (Goldstein 1979).

1.1.4 Some Char^acteristics of Canada's Energy Performance and Its Urban and Reg'ional Imp'l ì cat'ions

S'ince 1945, Canada's economic performance and jts high leve'l of energy consumption have been in part attributable to structural economic condit'ions, Such as dispersed patterns of growth, a need to service extens'ive nemote and inhospitable regions, and dependence on a primany r.esource base of enengy-i ntensi ve (extractì ve) j ndustr"i es I ocated far fnom mankets (Canada, ECE Secretariat 1977). However, it has also been due'in pant to the stnucture and development pattenns of larger Canadian cities and jn particular to the relat'ive ineffic'ieney wjth which such cities have been planned and use enengy to condit'ion space, heat water, powen urban transpot t, and generate electrìcity.

As of L976, total primary enengy consumption in Canada totalled approx'imately 8.44 exajoules (Canada EMR 1981). By 1981, primary energy jncreased to approx'imately 9.98 exaioules. As'indicated jn the fol I owi ng table, approximately three quarters of th'is energY, or 7 .39 exajou'les, was classjfied as secondary energy:

TABLE 2 SECONDARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN CANADA - 1981

Cl ass'if i cati on Percentage Total Exaj ou ì es

Energy Supply 6.9 .50 Induõlni es (i ncl ud'ing Pì peì i nes ) Domestic and Farm i9.6 1.44 Comme rc'i al 12.7 .98 I ndust ri al 35.0 2.57 Trans po rt at ì on 24.8 i .83 Unaccounted 1.0 0 .07 T00.0- -Tsq

Aclapted fnom: Canada, tMR - Energy Update - April 1981: 28 9

Toappreciatethemagn.itudeofanexajoule(EJ),0r1.05x1018 joules'asaun.itofresidentìalenergy,itjsusefultoconsjderthe 1981' an average reaSOnab]y exampl e of a typ'ica] househol d. In GJ (g'igaioules) .insulated household jn canada consumed'in order of 250 peryear,incìudingapproximatelyl00GJforspaceheat,35GJforwaten transport' If' on heat,15 GJ for appljances and 100 GJ for household 8.0 x 106 of such the basìs of the 19g1 Census, there were appr^ox'imately energy requì rement of ,,typ.ical " househol ds i n canada, then the total approximately 2 exaioules' these households for these four purposes was households jn canada was consequently, total energy consumptjon for all figure is less than the s'light'ly more than 2 exajoules. Although this aggregateforDomesticandCommencia].inTab]e2,thecategor.ies Domestic,FarmandCommer.c.ialincludebothresjdentjaland non-resi dent'ial enengy consum'ing I and uses'

In1981'morethanT5pencentofCanada'spopulation]ivedinjn represented households cities and towns. In excess of 54 percent (1981 Census of canada)' It has c.ities larger than 100,000 populat'ion consumed for urban and been estjmated that in 19g1, household energy residential related purposes approached 60 percent of total consumption.0nthebas.isoflg8lf'igur.es(Table2),thisrepresented jntheorderof4.4exajoulesofsecondanyenergyconsumedinlarger energy was consumed for urban centres. If at least 27 percent of this domest'icpunposes,includingspaceheat'watenheat'andtransport exajoules wene consumed by energy fon iourney-to-work, then 1'19 s'ince much of th'is energy was househol ds in ì arge urban centres. and at low system effic'iencies' consumed for low temperature purposes, resources' the impact on the and was based on consumption of deplet'ing for such put"poses was national economy of using non-renewable resounces s.ign.if,icant.Abreakdownofsourcesofth.isenergyandanest.imateof economy has been summari zed as f ol I ows : .its cap.i ta'l cost to the nati onal

'including bì omass, 43 0f total energy consumed jn Canada fon by ol 1 23 percent by oencent *u, u..ouñle¿ ' percent bY ñ-å.ã-ãlääi.ìãiiv, 1B percent bv natural eâS' 9 -10- coal'4percentbynuc.leargenerationand3pencentby biomass. Our enãigy neeas ãost the economy $22-billjon in igig or about ro pãicent of the Gnoss National Pnoduct (Canada, EMR L979: 18).

Atover$2bj]l.ionperexajoule(1979)totheCanadianeconomy (annually), and assum'ing at least 2 exaioules for urban household could have been consumption, do]lar savings to the nat'ional economy substantjal if large quantjties of urban domestic energy had been fon urban prov.ided from energy conservation. Aìthough not all energy through institutional and related purposes can be used more efficient'ìy that more efficient change or techn'ical'innovation, it is suspected production'processing,anddistnibutionofenergyforresidentialancl in national and other purposes could result in a s'ignìficant'improvement j .in exampì e evi dence wh ch has negi ona.l energy perf ormance Canada. For , that comprehensive companed sweden and the united states has suggested sweden have resulted in measures to improve urban energy performance'in 24 per cent estimated energy efficiency ìncneases in the order of improvement in (schjpper and Lichtenberg 1976). If a sìmi'lar percentage energyeff.icìencyhadbeen.inplaceinCanadainlg8l,economìcsavings per annum' If a could have represented in the order of $3"6 billion per"spective ìs partìcular urban region w'ithin such a natìonal enengy energy conservat'ion can be cons.ider^ed, some reg'ional dimens'ions of urban def i ned.

conservation in the canaclian 1.1.5 Some D'imenSiOnS of unban Energy Pl ai ns Regi on

energy consumptìon To establ'ish a range of empirical limits for jt'is to co.nsiclen in the Plains region to the year 2025, necessary severalassumpt.ions:(1)theprair"ieprov.incesw.illcontinueto populat'ion to at represent approxjmately 17 per cent of total canad'ian ]easttheyear.2025(Foot19B1);(2)atahighrateofnatjona]energy consumptjon,tota.l(primary)enengyconsumptionwilljncreasefrom9.5 exajou.lesperannuminlgS0,toapprox.imate]y2lexajoulesperannumin - 11 -

2025 (Gander and Belaire 1978); and (3) on a proportional ¡egional basis, pêF capita energy demand for the Canadian Plains ¡egion wjll gnow at a high rate, from approximately 1.6 exaioules per annum'in 1980 to growth, 3.6 exajoules per annum in 2025; (3) At a low rate of energy however' energy demand will decline to the year 2025. It is assumed that future total national p¡imary energy consumption ¡lill not decline energy below 8.4 exajoules and on that basjs, the proportion of future consumption for the r.egion will be at least 1.5 exajoules.

3'6 The difference between a low of 1.5 exaioules and a high of exajoules suggests a range of potential annual regional ene¡gy savings jt also to the year 2025 of approximately 2.L exaioules per year. If is percent of regional assumed that, on a per cap'ita basis, at least 60 such centres energy.is consumed jn'langer urban centres, and that with'in 30 percent of urban energy consumpt'ion, conservat'ive]y, PêPresents residentjal energy, then potential energv savings for urban households s'ign'ificance of ane .in the range of $0.57 - $1.36 b'illion. However, the as an these numbers is less their precis'ion than thein usefulness potentia] for indicator of magn'itude of residential enengy conservation largecitiesjnaclimatically-stressedregionofCanada.

1.2 THE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT

energy The jmplications of potential per" capita residential energy sav.ings are s'ign'ificant. However, to consider residential 'it important to consumptìon and effìciency on a reg'ional basìs, is in which urban define mo¡e precìsely the urban and negiona'l envinonment residential energy consumptjon and efficjency are consìdered' Thjs (1) the Intenìor subsectjon considers two aspects of this envi ronment: Plains as a habitable reg'ion, wh'ich provides a context for the selected envi ronmental conditions and characterist'ics of region; and cl.imat.ically-stressed c1t'ies with'in a similar physiographic specifìc urban (2) the selected cit'ies as an unban laboratory'in which energycharacter^.ist.icsoflargecìt.iescanbeconsidered. -t2-

L.2,L The Intenior Plains as a Habitable Region

An important considenation of sound p'lann'ing for a hab'itable urban region is not on'ly the regions abiìity to support jts population, but also, to consume resounces efficientìy so that there can be surplus for tnade with other reg'ions. Physiography is the term used to descr^'ibe the intninsic physica'l conditions which influence the habitab'ility of regions. For examp'le, de Blii (1980) has suggested that:

physiography involves more than just the landscape and land forms it ïs made of. It relates ... to all natural features on the earth's surface including not only the land forms but also the climate, soi1s, vegetation hydnography and whatever else may be nelevant to changes in the overall natural'landscape. (p.63)

In physiographìc terms, Canada is composed of at least 10 majon sub-divisions or regions, in which only limited areas enjoy environmental conditions sat'isfactony to support urban populations of a significant size (Figure 2). One of these major divjsions, the Interior Plains, extends from the eastenn s'lope of the Rockies to the to the Laurentian Sh'ield and fnom the Arctic Circle to the Un'ited States border (F'igure 2). In southern Canada, the Interior Plains reg'ion is a large cont'inental depression of low rel'ief stretching from the Rockjes to the Canadian Shield (Figur"e 3). Formed oven 500 million years ago, the bedrock underlying the negion's surface contains substantial oil, gas and coal, and in some aneas, uranium. In the the Canadian Intenjor Plains, prìmariìy between the Saskatchewan - Manìtoba borden and the Canadian Rockies, fossi1 fuel energy resounces are particu'lar1y abundant. hlith most of Canada's foss'il fuel resounces located'in this negion, its ìarge cities ane part'icularly weìl s'ituated to accessible, but depleting supplies of foss'il fuel energy.

0f the three Canadjan provinces in the Intenion Pla'ins region, Alberta and Saskatchewan ane both heavily dependent on fossil fuels for 'long thermoelectric power and other enengy needs. Manitoba has ago 13

FIGURE 2: INTTRIOR PLAINS AND PLATEAUS IN CANADA

éc

CF

0q

fr

2

âo o,. Greol o) Ploins

Centrol Lowlond

teous

Ozork Ouochito Province

o 400 8OO M¡lc!

CENlRAL LOWLANO Alhabasca and Lia¡d Rivers 1.00O to 1.50o feel lower. Nea¡ about .1,300 feet on 1. Mon¡tobo Ploin; southern part is bed of Lake Aggasiz. Undcr- foot of Rocky Mountains âltitudes are the plalcaus. lain by Paleozoic and some lurassic. Ends eastwa¡d against the Shicld: ends westward at foot of lhe Manitoba Escarp- CREAT SLAVE ANO CREAÎ BEAR PLA¡NS ment formed l):/ C¡etaceous formstions, Allitude of the plain Creot Slove Ploin: bv Paieozoic fo¡mations. À1. is aboul 8OO fcel. 5. Underlain 2. Soskolchowon Ploin: Underlain bv Cretaceous fo¡mations. lilude aboul 1.00O feel: litllc relief. Ends eastward at rim of Manitoba Escarpment: weslwilrd al 6. Grcol Seor Ploin: Unde¡lain bv Mesozoic formations. Roll. Missouri Coteau. lhe cdge of the Terliar-v formations. Lowe¡ ing surface generall¡, lower lhan 1.000 feel alliludc: ¿ fcrv and smoother than plains to wesl (Alberta Plains). Altitudcs hills up lo 50O feel high. Ends al south.facinE escarpment overlooking 1,500 lo 2.600 feet. Slreams ent¡enchcd about 3OO feet in G¡cat Slavc Plain. open vallevs, XORlHERN PROVINCES CREAÎ PLAINS 7. MocKenzic Ploin. Fronklin Àlounlo¡ns. ond Colvillc Hills: 3. Álherlo Plcins; Underlain mostlv by Cretaceous formâtions. Ållitudes nea¡ se¿ lcvcl along the MacKenzic River and more Eocene near the foot of lhe mountains. Rougher than Sas- lhan 2.000 fcet in the mountains rvhich a¡e ridges of Paleo. katchewan Plain. Altitudes a¡ound 2.5oo feet: Cypress Hills zoic formalions, reach .1,700 feet and probably were nol glaciated. Valle¡rs 8. Arcl¡c Slope. including thc MocKenzíe Delto: Slope north enlrcnched 200 to .lO0 feet. from 2.000 feet lo sea level. Weste¡n parl largel¡u covered glacial {. ,Albe¡ío P,oteou: Belween Alhabasca and Liard Rives. C¡e- bv d¡ift anrl slightlv lorver lhan easlcrn parl. Slreams laccorrs fo¡malions in plaleaus scparaled by broad vallcvs. cnt¡enchcd increilsin8lv loward the south to about.l00 feet. Pliltcîus 2.500 to 3.200 feel ¡n trltiludc. Lorvlands along lht:

SOURCE: Cha rl es B. Hunt. 1973. Natural Reg'ions of the United States and Canada. San Fnanci sco: l,l . H. Fneernan -ant To; - Fì guae 13. 2 p.328. -L4-

FIGURE3:ALBERTA,SASKATCHEWANANDMANIT0BAPLAINS

F Sptc G q

I o3ftO lChcron J 0 30O Mllc¡ Lowlond AlhaÒoscd

o ü I U a-tuert - --f- - Saskatoon

I Reoino t --

ills le Mln

Re ions of the United States S0URCE: Char les B. Hunt. 1973. Natural Co. : gu ne p. and Canada. San Francì sco: t^l.H reeman a 15- exhausterC what lìttle coal it had, and compared to jts two western ne'ighbours has nelat'ively l'ittle remainìng gas on oì1. l,rlith lange coal cleposits close to the sunface from west of Edmonton to the foothills of the Rockies, as well as'in the southwestern regìon of the province, most of Alber"ta's electrical enengy needs ane provided from thermoelectrìc plants situated near extensjve strip m'ines. In southenn Saskatchewan s.imjIar sub-surface coal deposìts ane used for development of electnic power. Both prov'inces use available waterbodies as once-through condensen cool'ing for thermoelectrìc power p'lants with little use of waste heat.

t¡¡ith respect to renewable energy, although Alberta and Saskatchewan are both served by a number of major nonth-east and east flowing ¡ivers, watersheds 'in theìr upstream regìons either have little or uneven potential fon hydroelectric generation' on are situated w'ithjn pr"otected nat'ional parks whi ch restn'ict hydroelectrìc devel opment- For example, w.ith some exceptions, such as The Big Bend and Big Honn dams in Alberta, and the Squaw Rapìds, Is'ìand Falls, and Gardiner dams in Saskatchewan, not until these east-flowing watersheds are well east of Lake l,linnipeg in Manitoba, clo they possess suffìcjent flows to genenate large hyrJroelectric potentials. Consequentìy, the eastern and western portions of the canad'ian p'ìai ns regìon ane a study in contnasts with respect to energy potentìals such as hydroelectric'ity (Figure 4)'

A]though the portion of the Interior Pla'ins which compni ses the three prairie pnovinces jncludes onìy 17 per cent of the Canada's population, it contains approxjmately 77 pen cent of all ar^able land (Canacla DBS 1966). lllith essentia'l'ly flat rel'ief and fert'ile soils, the canadian Interjor Plains, despìte cljmatìc ljmitations in growing season, ìs ideaì for agricultune, ìncludìng grain, livestock, daì rying, and market gardening. Therefore, in addition to enengy productìon, the region's economjc base provìdes, th¡ough grain (and lìvestock) production, anothen important "renewable" and exportable nesource for FIGURE 4: HYDRAULIC SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF THE NELSON AND CHURCHILL DRAINAGT BASINS

:1æ irm I 3dî fr rom 30@ . :. ?:::i 70m .. *-;'l::j læm MEAN "-F¡VER - FLOW_CFS REINDEER !AKE m@ HF o o (Ir. @ @ n @ FIVEÂ +d' 1æ m !Þ,T*:ül[il sò"

aEs€8vorF cFs-wKs @ I m é! @ ;l @ '.r. ßi o*".","."," \ W warÍon uôdiq A6âch GENÉRATING SIATIOil I ,,,..--) o.**""* Êighr.Miló Chânî61 KisiDachewùt Chãnn.l ,% M€Ghðn¿is Ch¿nnêl

l-æDARï¡Ë"1 ¡ I cnoss r-¡xel q ru E Or

8ftky Moùnra'ñ Houso t

*o.

LÀC SÊUL

LAKE I.IINNIPEG

%

Srrk'rk G I a*'''oo'"on'"'Q ffiffi .å:,::i¡,", serrtrh c s

. . ÀsSrNlaorNE ÊrvÊR - @ Ë OuAppelrê Rrver ó ffit

HYDRAULIC SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF 2

THE NELSON AND CHURCHILL LAKT OF DRAINAGE BASINS THT HOODS + Adâpted Êrom D.rwrng 8m.E 61'.2,72.12.O1 MAN¡IOBA HYOFO Sysreñ OÞerar'ñg Oee¡r¡ñent O!tc 77 t0.31 g 5 SOURCE: Manitoba Hydro: Research and Planning Department. l^linnipeg, Manitoba. -17

ngly, the I arge ci ti es i n th'i s reg'ion the canadi an economy. correspondi component of the economic are essential to effectively serv'ice this base,andeconomjcallysusta.inabìeenergyis'importanttoenablethese c'ities to fulfill their service role'

InCanada,thelnteriorP]ainscompromiseseightsub.negions0r areas(F.igune2,p.13).Theseareasinc]udemostofthePrair.ie However, only the most pt.ovinces and the Northwest Terrjtorjes. .ly and three spec.i f i cal areas one , two ' southenly of these sub.regi ons ' popu'lations' consequently' these are climatically habitable for lange areasconta.inmonethan60pencentoftheurbanpopulationsofAlbenta' SaskatchewanandManitoba.TwooftheareasjnManitobaand the central Lowlands' and the third is Saskatchewan ane sub-div'isions of partoftheGreatP]ains.Thesethneesub-negìonsofthelnterjor in which to ana'lyse energy and Plains are selected as a reg'iona1 context urbandevelopmentbecausetheycontain]argecitjeswh.ichseasonally exper.iencesevereclimaticstressandassuchrequjnelargeenergy Also' because they repnesent a investments to overcome th'is stress' rangeofcitieswithhousingofd.ifferentageandcondit.ion,they provideanopportunitytoconsiderurbanenergyconsumption.inre]ation compactness and the use of to chanactenistics, such as age, urban avail able resident'i al energY'

It'is.indeedapar'adoxofenergyandenvironmentthata.lthough of world's two coldest urban'ized the canad.ian Interior Plains ìs one reg.ions,.it.isalsorich.inìnd.igenousenergynesouf.ces.However,given theexportpotentialofmanyoftheseenergyresouncestootherless ef f i ci ency ons 'improv'i ng urban energy wel I -endowed regi ons or nati , econom'ic and quality-of-f ife within the canadian Plains has important .impì.icat.ionsforCanadà,fonther^egion,andforitsurbanareas.For example,effect.iveurbanenergyconser.vat.ioncanenab]ethereg.ionto extendthe].ifeexpectancyof.itsdep.letingenergyresources'a11ow.ing of energY' 'it to cont'inue longer as a net exPorter -18-

I.2.2 Characterist'ics 0f The Selected Cities

0f the three Interior Plains cities selected for analysis within sub-regions (1)-(3)'in Figune 2, Wìnnìpeg is situated ìn sub-reg'ion 1, Saskatoon is jn sub-reg'ion 2, and Edmonton js jn sub-negion 3. These cities are selected for analysis because they are representat'ive of thein respective provinces in size, ìatitude and climate. For example, within their provinces they are: (1) among the largest cìties, with populations in the range of 100,000 to 600,000; and (2) the most northerly and coldest large cities. They ane also among the five coldest large cities in Canada. Therefore, among ìarge Canadian c'ities, they repr^esent those most in need of large quantities of energy fot Space heat and unban transpot^t. Also, g'iven their locations jn provinces with diffenent degnees of dependence on non-nenewable energy, the cities neflect different degrees of ìong term vulnerabiì'ity with respect to depletion of energy resources. Fot example, Edmonton and Saskatoon ane heavi ìy dependent on str"'ip-m'ined coal for el ectrì ci ty generation, wh'ile l^linnipeg with its greater access to hydroe'lectnic'ity can depend more on renewable energy*.

1.3 THE URBAN CONTEXT FOR ENERGY INVESTIGATION

Although pl aced 'in a broad national and r"egiona'l f namewonk, the context of this dissentation 'is urban and its focus is.on energy use in

'ly * Although Fi gune 4 schemat'ical i I I ustr ates the I arge hydroeiectric potent'ials ava'ilable'in the Churchill and Nelson Dia'inage Bas'ins and the smal I er hydrauf ic potenti al s of other ¡ivers jn the Canadìan Interior Plains which feed these basins, it does not'include all powen production plants withjn the reg'ion. Fon example, it does not'include thermal power stations in-Albenta, Saskatchewan and Northwestenn Qntario' or hydraulic potentials fnom the Peace and Slave R'iver systems of northern Alberta and the Northwest Ternitories. Notwithstandjng these limitat'ions however, it illustrates the impontance of hyàroe'lectric poteniials in Manìtoba nelative to other provinces i n the I ate 1970's. -19

jdens spec.if ic nes jdent jal tnacts ìn large cit'ies. Th'is sub-section cons some aspects of this unban enengy c'ontext including: (1) a brjef history of urban growth and enengy developmentl (2) the'impact of climate on urban energy consumption; (3) some relevant dimensions of unban enengy; and (4) some ljmitations in evaluating urban enengy'in specific urban tracts

1.3.1 History of Urban Growth and Energy Deve'lopment

In modenn j ndust rj al economj es net i nternal popu'l at'ion ì ncrease normally represents little more than one per cent per annum' More rapid urban growth is usually a result of substantial net inter-regjonal migration, which occurs when the labour force ava'ilable w'ithìn a regìon cannot satisfy local needs. For examp'le, in the fifteen years preceding Wonld l,lar I, and during the th'ir^d quarter of the twentieth centuny' many large Canadjan Plains cities experienced rapid growth and substantial increases ìn popu'lation through ìmmigratìon (Artibise 1981). In 1945' all but W.innjpeg of the fìve largest Plains c'ities had less than 100'000 popu'latjon. Howeven, in the subsequent 35 yea¡ period, Edmonton and 6 caìgary grew r.apidly in populat'ion from 100,000 to 500,000, or fnom approximately 40,000 to 200,000 clwe'llings. The'ir growth rates sometjmes exceeded five per cent per year (Robìnson 1981). Saskatoon and Regìna growth i ncreasi ng aì so expen'i enced si gni fi cant, al though I ess dramatj c, by a factor of thnee.

Rapid urban g¡owth after 1945 had a number of undenlying causes' including a post-depressìon and post-war baby boom, an'increase in capitaf intensive ag¡icultune, whìch propel'led many rural peopìe into pr0grams cities, and an expansion of cultural , educat'ion and health care and faciIjties in maiot" unban centres. Howeven, fot" ìanger cities' such rapìd as Edmonton and Saskatoon, an ìmportant growth'impuìse was the increase.in energy nesource clevelopment actjvjty in Alberta and Saskatchewan. -20-

Historìcally, urban development in the Interior Plaìns was than a c]osely I i nked w'ith clevel opment of avai I able energy. Fon mone century, the transformation of energy to power machjnes and to generate heat and elect¡icity has depended on fossil fueled engines' Initjaì1y' such engines powered steam boats, locomotives, and tnactors. i n Subsequent'ly, steam powered automob'il es and stat'ionary eng'ines thermal on thermoelectnic power plants were common. Eventually' power gasoììne djesel systems shjfted to l'ighter and cheaper fuels such as or o'il, and mone necently, to propane for some systems'

Dur.ing the finst half of the twentieth centurY, â numben of generate steam fon Canadjan c'ities depen{ed on coal-fired plants to industrial processes, electric power'and to p¡ov'ide space heat and hot waten in central areas. Maioilinstìtutjons and commercial establishments, incìuding public bu'ildings, factories, warehouses' retail outlets, as wel'l aS apartments, depencled on such systems' Up to the 1960's, the local coal yard suppljed household fuel to many as 1966' resiclent'ial areas'in Pla'ins cities. In Winnipeg, as necently of dìstrict some residentjal neighbou¡hoods even enjoyed the benefits ç pìants heat suppl'ied from central or community based coal-fjred steam oil (carvalho 1976). However, in the past three decades, dependence on has become almost and gas, part'iculanly in A'lberta and saskatchewan, these comp'lete, as most fjxed and mobjle urban systems shifted to a shift fuels. Ì¡¡ith the onset of a world ener"gy crisis in the 1970's However' wjthin back to coal for thermoelectric power productìon began' enef'gy resource this same per^iod, winnjpeg, with a larger renewable base,.increaseclitsdepe.ndenceonhydnoelectr.icity.

i regi ons Unl.ike Eclmonton and Saskatoon, which were si tuated n strategic with limited hydraulic potentìal, winnipeg cleveloped an early jt development of aclvantage in hydroelectric energy. Although led'in century' 'it coal-fired steam plant technology eanly in the twentieth from the Winnipeg R'iven also cleveloped hydr oelectrjcity transm'itted -2t- system to power its extensive street naj1way and municipaì light'ing d'iverse networ.ks (Arti b'i se 1975). Wi nn'ipeg's unique energy systems, grai product'ion and economi c base, gnav'i ty l ocat'ion fon servi ng prai ri e n tr.ansport, as wel I as the conti nued dependence of hlestern Canada on rajlways fon long haul heavy freìght transport, helped to ensure its strateg'ic advantage as a regìona'l tnansport centre up to the 1960's' Howeven, after 1950, rapid growth 'in long-range iet ajn tnavel, d.iesel.izat'ion of r"ailways, and development of major oi1 and gas discoveries in Alberta and western saskatchewan' were reflected by a Plains slowing of gnowth in h/innipeg' and a sh'ift in investment to newen cities, such as Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Calgary'

.incìuding coal Rap.id development of fossil fuels, oì.1 , gas, and , .in the western Plains after 1945, cojncicled w'ith decentral'izjng unban e, and r^eg.ional forces ì n many i ndustni al countri es. ton exampl areas burgeoning low densìty subdiv'isions and sjngle famììy residential dependent on .in many older large cìties were becom'ing increasing'ly and trolley automob.iles rather than on fixed lìne electric stneet cans previous buses whjch had served denser residential configurat'ions'in Ç By 1970's decades (schaeffer and sklar 1975; Warner 1962 and 1970)' the urban purpgses dependence on foss'il fuel s for transportat'ion and other in Plains c'itìes was vi rtually comp'lete (Edwards 1978)' In Alberta and gas and oil saskatchewan, dependence on non-r'enewables, partjculanly ' behind for unban energy exceecled 90 percent, with Man'itoha close to (stat.ist'ics canada 1976). Consequently, for more than three decades ' the mid 1970'S, urban areas of the Inten'ior Pla'ins, like c'ities and extent' elsewhene in Nor^th America, developed in form, pattenn, independent of considerations such as energy and resource ljmitations (Yeates and Garner 1976).

l¡lith a possìbilìty of substantial dep'letion of lìquid foss'il fuels within pnesent l'ifetimes (t^lillson 1980), un

If there ìs going to be an increase'in energy production suff ici ent to ma'inta'in present I 'ivi ng standards, I et al one increase them, the world is indeed, facing a d'ifficult time. The 'indiscniminate growth patterns of the past decades will not be sustained;'in many cases they wilì be neversed. Thene will be consequent unempìoyment and economic disruption. Because they no longen controì, through the agencies of the international oil companies, the sources of their energy supp'lies many of the affluent countries w'ill find their" ambitions curbed and their aspirations unfulfil led. Inevitably for some, thei n powen and influence will declìne as the balance shìfts away fnom them towards countries betten enclowed with nesources. W'ith some 30 percent of their energy spent on "non-procluctive" domestic enengy consumpt'ion, most of jt on space-heat'ing, the jndustnial countnies of the nonthenn latitudes are heav'ily handicapped in competition with countries w'ith mone equable climates. In these c'ir"cumstances eliminating waste becomes a matten of panamount'importance fon everyone. (p.328)

L.3.2 The Impact of Clìmate on Unban Enengy Consumption

Seasonal'ly, the cont'inental cl 'imate of Canada's Interi or Pl a'ins fluctuates wide'ly. Winters are cold and are accompanìed by fnequent blizzards while summens are hot and are subject to severe storms 'long 'incl udi ng tornadoes. Despì te i ntense sunl i ght and summer days, the gr"owìng season is relatively shont. In southern Man'itoba the average f r.ost f nee season i s between 110 - 120 days wi th llli nnipeg c1 ose to 118 days. Frost free peniods ìn Saskatoon and Edmonton are even shorter. -23-

As indicated in Figure 5, all major cities of the Interior Plains are within mean January isotherms of -6r70 !o -23.3o Celsius. The three most northerìy 'large cj t'ies i n thei r respecti ve provi nces approach 6000 degree days (Figure 6). These three selected cities aìso experience more than 500 houns per^ year of tempenatures below 200C, and in excess of 125 days pen year with more than one inch of snow cover'. At the same t.ime they experi ence nel ati ve'ly few days w'ith no sunshi ne and recei ve c'it'ies bright sunsh'ine for a large numben of hour"s. 0f the three ' Saskatoon and 14innipeg experience temperatures greaten than 30oC for a relatively 'lange number of hout's (Tabìe 3).

For energy for space heating, Figures 6 and 7 jndicate that all three citjes experience annual heating chanacterist'ics of 5450 to 5995 degree clays and are 'in the nange of January desi gn tempenatunes for dwellìngs of -31.70 to -34.40 Celsius. Thìs means that although households, particularly in low density subdiv'isions, ane capab'le of absorb.ing and storing s'ignìficant quantjties of pass'ive solan energy 'longer even duri ng cool er seasons, oven w'inters they must al so expend 20-30 pen cent more for space heat than similar housìng ìn mor"e equab'le climates. In addition, because motor vehìcles jn colder urban regions consume greaten quant'it'ies of fuel for warm-up, startìng and stopp'ing nequinements (Canrier 1974; Droìet et al 1977), unban transpontation Plains consumes sìgnificantly more energy in the lar^gest and coldest cities.

1.3.3 Some Relevant Djmens'ions of Urban Energy

j enef'gy By the mi cl 1970's, the depenclence of canad an ci ti es on percent of was substanti aÏ. Nat'ional ly, transportat'ion repnesented 25 percent' total energy consumption, nesjclential 20 per^cent, commencial 14 indust ry 27 percent, and energy supply inclustr"ies and losses and For non-energy uses represented 15 pencent (statistìcs canada 1976)' ìarge urban centres, energy consumptìon fjgures were grouped closer togethen, with values of 12.5, 12,10, 15 and 10 percent respect'iveìy, FIGURE 5: MEAN JANUARY TTMPERATURES IN CANADA

-30 (-34 4)

o4a -30(-34 4) 20( - 2891 -20(-289) -eo (-¿s Òl -20(-28 9) Degrees Fahrenhei t (Cel s.ius F )

+30(-l I

-to(-23.3) (- r 7.8)

! I f\)Þ r 40 (.1 4) f-- - l +10(-lZZl -20(-28 9) ô +20(-6 7) i\ r 40(J d) e - I0( 23 - ro(-23 ) I ao ( '() I 'o t .'' ! \ 6, ó '() t Þ, 30 (- r r) 0(-r78) Ì f r0(- 12 t7 9 +10(-122) LEGEND + 6 +30(-t t) E - Edmonton S - Saskatoon ll - Hi nni peg t20(--67) SOURCE: Cl imatol ogi cal Atlas. Ottawa: Nat'ional Research Council of Canada and Department of Transport 1953. Frffinservation of Energy in Housing. Ottawa: 3. FIGURE 6: ANNUAL DEGREE DAYS IN CANADA a) .zuú' o) o4u

Degree Days Fahrenhe'it (Cel sius)

.o5\ "ïþ"' 12090)

2tooo(l

%oo, oB,' I ìOOO( l\) (tr tuooorrr{', l t zoooß13

6o0o(3¿50) E

o s ól ¡t - ,oofl,lnnr, 3E YÚ O 2000(6540)

L EGE ND

E - Edmonton S - Saskatoon t,,l - liinnipeg ( Desjgns canada 1975 - Supp lement to The National S0tJRCE: C I'imatol ogical Information for Bu'ilrling !n -ðuniau of Canada' Fr om CMHC 1977. The Buildin Code of 1970. 0tiawa: National Reseaich Council " onservat ono Enerqy n u s'inq. Ottawa:7. FIGURE 7: JANUARY DISIGN TEMPERATURES FOR DWELLINGS IN CANADA o'a¡ 50(*455) c5r 4 - 45(- 42.$',t 551 aa t't '/ Degrees Fahrenheit (Celsius) \,Ô É 55( 483) 50{-45 -45(-428 .10 {- a0 0) -40(-40 0) :]0( 34 4) 20(-289) l0( 23 3) 0(_tì -50 -45 5) (- 37.21 8) lro( 671 u5( -30(-34 4) .J¿

G ,o -50(-4s 5) I o d." -25(-31 7) l\) v Lì Ol 'j. -20(-289) I -10(-233) E (- 2t 0(-r78)

Ò s

ruo ro No ã .wl 25(-31 I @rù N LEGEND @ @ 251 3t 7 l0 (- E - Edmonton ) 0(-. 178) S - Saskatoon 78) 10 (- lrl - l{i nn i peg -1 781

S0URCE: Climatologica'l Information for Buildi ng Designs 'in Canada 1975 - Supplement to the National Buildin Code o f Canada 1970. Ottawa: Nation al Research Council of Canada. From CI4HC. 1977. Th-e- on se rva ono net^qv n usi nq. Ottawa: 6 TABLE 3: CLIMATT FOR 23 LARGT CANADIAN CITITS

Hor-¡rs ol Days Days wilh Days wilh Dâys w¡lh Days wilh Mean daily Mean daily Days wilh l-lorrrs wilh l-lor¡rs wilh brighl wilh measu- no fneasuf- lleezing snow covel rninimurn maxirnum minimum lemper- lemper- sun- sun- able able precipi- ol I ol lemper- lemper- lemper- alule alute precip¡- shine sh¡ne snowlall lalion more alure alule alure grealer below lalion inches in January in July below O"C lhan 30"C0 - 20'Ce annual average degrees Celsrus annuAl averagee Tolonlo 2.046 65¡ 134 45 r0 62 - t0.5 27.O r54 t2.8 32. t Monlreal t.959 67¡ 60 163 t4 il6 - t4.3 26.3 r53 30.5 130 2 Vancor.¡ve¡ r.93 t 76¡ t6r t2 I 7 -0.4 22.2 57 t.3 0 Ottawa r.995 69¡ 60 rô r52. l16 - 15.6 26.4 t66 .48.8 I I

Ouebec |.827 8 t¡ t64 16.2 25. I r6.6 Hamilton (Royal - Bolanrcal Garc,ens) 2.035 626 125 38 l2i -8.6 27.2 r34 Calgary 2.207 4t il3 6r 3 99 - r6.7 23.5 20r r7.0 4 !5 0 ¡ Kitchener r.950? il3 3r -9.9 26.9 t54 f\) London r.929 69 r65 \j 66 t2 -9.9 26.4 r52 35.0 3 r.7 l-la lif a x (Shean¡rater ) 1.945 77 142 36 17. 60 2 r.9 142 2.O 7.8 Wrndsor -7.8 r37 42 I 43 7.8 27.8 r35 80.5 77 Victoria - (Gonzales Heights) 2.t83 5t 142 I <¡ 5 + t.9 20.8 l8 ¡.3 0 Sud[rury r55 73 l9 r39 rB.4 24.8 r83 15.9 396 0 Regrna 2,278 45 - il4 58 t2 r30 -22.6 26.2 207 9 r.4 744.0 St. Jonn's 1.458 r08 2r0 85 36 r20 - 7.0 20. I 177 o 2.1

Sarnl Jonn ¡,819 88 r64 58 r I 82 t2.6 Sherbrooke - 22.3 175 t.9 92.0 1,901 72 r70 63 I t7.8 24.6 Tlo¡s-Rlvreles - 16r r29 2927 r52 53 I - t7.4 26.2 tl7 Krngslon 2.t 13 5t r30 39 -¡t.6 25.0 148 'Data based on reco.ds lol 20 cr I years. excepl wf¡ere ¡ndrcaleo. óFrgure based m recrds lor past 9 yeals. rFrgr.rre rs lor Guelph. Onl. Þascld olì records lor pasl years. ¡Fr0ure 'FrO(,re l5 based or¡ recorcts ld pasl 7 yeafs. ôFrgtrre rs lor lhe atrpofl. 'FrEÍe rs lor lhe rnlernalional eData airporl. based or¡ recolds lor lO years. excepl ìÀhere indicaled. lFr$rfe based or¡ leco.ds lor pasl 16 yeats. 'oFr$re based on tecords lol pasl 2O years. SOURCE: Atmospheri c Envi ronment Senvì ce, Envi ronment Canada , Downsvi ev,J, 0ntari o. 28

nepresented in for the sectoral categories Iisted. Thus unban energy consumption' the oncler of 60 percent of total national

was also sjgnificant' The breakdown of foss'il fuel energy demand energy demand was derived In 1976, over B0 perCent of canada's domest'ic pencent, approx'imately 16 percent from gas and o.il. 0f the nemaining 20 Brusegard 1980, 260)' l'lith at was provided by electric'ity (Acller and fnom foss'il fueled least half of total electrical demand produced and nuclean) , more than 85 thermoelectr.ic systems (i.e. coaì, gas, o'il jncluding clomestic demand' denjved frorn pencent of total energy demand, 60 percent of th'is demand non-renewables. Assum.ing that more than representedurbanconsumption,thenat]east50pencentoftotalenengy consumptionwasur.bandemanddependentonfossilfue]s.Inthe transportationsector,however,theproport.ionofdemandsenvedby fossilfue]Swasclosertoggpercentw.ithmostfromnapidìydepletìng liquidfoss.i]fuels.Ananalys,isofthetr^ansportsectorjndicatedthat automobiles, 25.2 percent by 50.3 percent of energy WaS consumed by othergroundtnansport(pr.imar.ilytruckjng),5.Tpercentbyra.ilways' by marine transport (Knelman 10.8 percent by a'ircraft, and 7.3 percent 1e75).

Forspecif.icP]a.inscjtìes,littlecomprehensiverlatahavebeen of urban energy consumption' available to prov'ide cletailecl breakdowns Theprimarymeansofderivingsuchdatahasbeentoextrapoìateby sectorsfromaggr^egatenationalorregionaìenergyaccounts(Gandenand Be]a.ire1978).Forexample,ana]ys.isofresjdentialandcommerc.ial residentjal energy demand sectors which represent the portion of B5-90 pencent of this internal to households, results in approximately heat and hot water (Hirst and Moyers demand being consumed for space primarily eìectricjty to 1g73). The nemaining 10-15 perient comprises and household machi nery' power smal I appl i ances, 1 ì ghti ng -29-

For the transport component of househoìd energy consumpt'ion, the 'largest j automobi le of fers the potent'ial fon d scret'ionany energy jour^ney-to-work' consumption by resident'ial consumers, particular'ly fon j di stance For exampl e, 'i n Lg75, of the total automob'i I e transpo ntat on for all cMA's in canada, approxìmateìy 27 percent repnesented journey-to-work travel (Transport canada I979). 0f total jour^ney-to-work trips, 74 percent were by automobile (Transport canada 1979). For Winn'ipeg and Edmonton, the figures were 73 percent and 78 percent nespectìveìy, and approximately 27'29 per^cent of total those automobìle travel d'istance repnesented jour^ney-to-work travel in total c'ities. |lJ'ith automobiles consuming ìn the order 50 percent of transport ene¡gy and passenger tnansport using 85 pencent of auto enengy 'in (Knelman 1975), iourney-to-wonk by automobjle wjnn'ipeg and Edmonton transpot^t nepresented jn the range of 11.5'72.3 percent of the total energy secton for those cit'ies.

hl'ith core based journey-to-wonk tri ps representì ng approxìmate'ly pnoportion 20 percent of total urban travel (Transpont Canada 1979), the jnto in of travel, and consequently enengY, for jour"ney-to-work the core jn percent the selected cities has been estimated to be the onder of 2 of transport energy. Howeven, when increased energy consumption and km) ane accounted unban congestìon for short trips (i.e. less than 4.8 fon, th'is figure ìncreases in excess of 3 percent of total transport energy. hljth 1980 transport energy repnesenti ng approx'imate'ly 25 (canada tMR percent of canadian consumption of total secondary enef'gy central 1981, 28), energy for average journey-to-wot"k commuting to the percent total cores of unban areas bry auto nepresents less than 1 of national energy consumPtion.

A]though household enengy consumption for iourney-to-work tnansport 'is slightly hìgher when pub'lìc transport energy is added' jvely when total journey-to-wonk ener"gy consumpt'ion is relat sma1l, compareclwjthtotalenergyconsumptionforconvent.ional 30 res'identj al /commercial development. For exampìe, residential /commercj al consumption represents 'in the order of 36 percent of total national consumption (Gander and Belajre 1978) . Energy fon space conditìoning and hot water alone represents approx'imately 88 pencent of th'is total . Consequent'ly, appnoximately 32 pencent of total nat'ional consumptÍon 'energy represents (1ow temperature) res'idential /commercial needs. l'¡ith 44 percent of th'is energy comprising urban nesidential consumption and with a residential transport component for journey-to-wonk to the core added to thjs figure, total consumption of low temperatune res'idential heat, and tnansport energy, approaches 16 percent of total nat'ional energy consumption. Howeven, w'ith apartments, class'ified as commercial , comprising at least 60 percent of this sector, total nesident'ial /commer-c'ial consumpti on i s cl oser to 27 percent of total national energy consumPtion.

In the plaìns region urban households consume approximately 5 per cent of national residential energy demand. At the same time, many plaìns cjt1es depend on fossil fuels for more than 90 percent of thein heat.ing needs (CMHC I977), alternat'ives whi ch can si gn'if i cantìy neduce this component of national consumption require serious consideration. For example, if a lange proportion of urban residential energy demands can be sat'isfied by substitution of less valuable (l owen qual'ity) enengy sources to sati sfy resident'ial needs whi ch m'ight otherw'ise use hi gh qua'lity fue'ls, and if enengy demands can be more closely matched w'ith available thermal enengy potentials, the net result can be a sjgn'ificant impnovement in enengy product'iv'ity (Fowlen 1984)'

Howeven, as a prenequis'ite to considerat'ion of such changes in ener.gy po]'icy, ìt is important to develop a method of measuring 'langer resì dent.ial energy performance on a scale whi ch i s than ei ther an jndiv.idual household or a specific nesjdent'ial pr^oject. For this purpose, standard census tracts ane Seen as approprjate areal un'its for urban energy analys'is and the method of areal energy model 1i ng cleve'loped -31 - in this dissertat'ion depends on the application of such aneal data units.

1.3.4 Some Limitations'in Evaluating Unban Energy in Spec'ific Urban Aneas

Identification of enengy consumption by groups of unban households poses several data problems. These range from inadequacìes in enengy and related data fon specifjc residential tracts to a lack of objective energJ/ efficiency indicators for nesident'ial transpont. The first problem neflects a deficiency of area specific data on resident'ial energy demand and on urban nes'idential energy production and consumptìon while the second problem reflects a lack of anea spec'ifjc data on res'idential transport enengy,'including'inadequate data retnieval on motor vehicle ownership, the use of vehicles for unban transport, and the'i r system eff i cjency in transformi ng f ue'l i nto useful ener"gy.

In ana'lysing urban energy, these l'imitations'in data, which for component aspects such as dwellings are provìded by census and other systemat'ic national i nformat'ion sounces, are onìy overcome by the use of certai n assumpt'ions and devi ces wh'ich are di scussed i n Chapters I I I, IV and V. However, identificatjon of these data limitations at this point he'lps to set the stage for definjtion of the central pnobìem considered in th'is dissentation, which is to i I lustrate a method of organ'izing, process'ing and model'l'ing urban residentjal energy use and related clata and consider its implications as an urban po'l'icy tool.

L.4 THE PROBLEM

The appl'ication of pnesent methods of urban enengy modelìing offer limited means to evaluate and present change'in urban energy nelative to urban development oven t'ime. A pìanning method is needed which can facilitate applicatjon of a model of such change. Th'is is particular"ìy important'in resjdential areas of large c'itjes where (1) 32

residential energy nepresents a lange component of unban ener"gy, (z) there is a need for communities and their residents to be able to comprehend dimensions of urban energy change over time and (3) there is an increasing need for practical policies fon urban enetgy conservation in larger residential areas such as subdivisjons, communjt.ies and nei ghbou rhoods "

This sub-section identifies a perceived need fon an illustrative urban planning tooì which can demonstrate in a new way application of a method of organìzing, processing and modelling urban residential and energy nelated data. This method uses a range of techn.iques of data assembìy and builds on neal data as fan as possib'le. It also introduces a variety of devices to ovencome limitations in neal data and other constnaints. The three components of this sub-sect.ion are: (l) defin'ition of the probìem, (2) statement of objectives and (3) conditions and relationships for demonstnat'ion of the method.

1.4.1 Definition of the Pnoblem

Energy consumption fon unban residential areas ìs usua'l'ly determined in one of three ways: (1) by extr"apolating negionaì aggregations of data on nesidential energy supply and demand fr"om nat'ional accounts (Brooks and casey lg79) ; (z) by extrapolat.ion of empirical data for energy consumption by pnototypical units such as dwel lings on vehicles (cMHc Lg77). For example, in the residentjal secton, a common method of enengy analysis establishes consumption for typical household and extnapoìates this energy unit to a 'larger res'idential area; and (3) by ìntenpnetation fnom aerial survey material such as jnfrared photographs of unban areas.

Although on a global bas'is the first two are useful methods to anaìyse national on regional enengy consumption by cìties, at a mone detajled areal level they obscure variations in urban enengy consumptìon and energy system effic'iency among nesidentjal units and tnacts wjthjn cities. They also mask factors such as m'icroclimate, housìng mix, -33- housing age on condition, and variations'in nesidential densìty. Conventional methods of modelìing energy a'lso disassocjate "intèrnal" residential energy conditions from "external" condit'ions such as transport energy (Dole 1975). For example, energy for automobile pre-wanming in colden climates may not be accounted for as transport energy and/or may not be accounted for as space heating or env'inonmental conditioning unden intennal residential energy. Al so, resident'i al location and/or dwelling type decisions by consumens intended to opt'imize residential tnansport energy in re'lation to othen costs may not be accounted for (Eichen and Tukel 1982). Although the third techn'ique fon determining residential enengy consumption neflects significant advancement in land survey technoìogy, it is stìll 'in its'infancy, and can result in misinterpretation of data part'icular1y for h'igh dens'ity or mixed land uses.

To influence residential energy consumption and efficiency in unban areas, it is essential to be able to model res'idential energy use in relation to urban development with'in and between different c'ities. For this purpose ìt is useful to app'ly a method of modelling nesidentjal enengy use and urban development which can use real energy data and can take account of parameters such as density, travel distance and time. In demonstrati ng a method of organi z'ing and process'ing real data and not'ionalìy apply'ing it to a model of resjdentìal energy use' th'is research can contribute to provide at least a first approximation of resident'ial energy use and can help to identify waste in relatìon to urban nesidential energy.

I.4.2 Statement of Object'i ves

The dissertation has three objectìves:

(1) to develop a pract'ical method of disaggnegating res'identjal energy consumption and other^ characteristics of resident'ial land use by areas or tracts; -34-

(2) to estimate and compare nesi denti al /commerci a'l enengy consumpt'ion for selected urban nesidential tracts under alternative enengy futures and to identify factors which 'influence residential enengy consumption within them; and

(3) to consider urban policies which can sustain a better balance between unban and negional energy production and consumption and thus increase energy system efficiency.

1.4.3' Conditions and Relationships to be Investigated

In illustnating a method of onganizing data and applying a model of urban residential energy fon lange c'ities, a number of urban conditions and relationships are 'investigated. For three selected cities, areal residential energy consumption and system effic'iency of resident'ial energy are considened in relation to

(1) urban size and compactness; where urban size refers to the population which is contained within the boundaries of a city and compactness refers to the ratio of the total dwellings or households to the area of a c'ity or urban area;

(2) areal resìdential density; the expression "residential density" is sometimes 'interpreted as meaning either populat'ion or dweì'ling density. It can also refer to the numben of dwelfings within a building or w'ithin an area, in effect aneal nesidential density. In th'is dissertation, un'less otherwise ind'icated, the expression areal res'idential dens'ity'is denoted by nesidential dens'ity. Similarly, the expÈession "areal res'idential energy consumption" js denoted by residential eneng)/ consumption; -35-

(3) age and condition of unban nesidential areas; although clear'ly not synonymous, these two cond'itions exhibit charactenjstics with sufficient similarit'ies to suggest further investigation;

(4) the system efficiency with which urban enengy is avajlable 'in residential aneas; refers to the sum of the efficiencies of the ind'ividual components ìn an unban residential energy system.

1.5 KEY QUTSTTONS

In investigatìng areal residential energy in three selected cities, the dissertation considers a number of panameters, wh'ich are important in influenc'ing resident'ial enengy consumpt'ion and efficiency, and consequent'ly urban form. These panameters are related to questions about the impact on r"es'identjal energy consumption of (1) city size and urban compactness; (2) res'ident'ial density and journey-to-work to the core; (3) age and condition of residential stock; and (a) the abil'ity of resi denti al /commerc'ial tnacts in I arge c'iti es to use avai I able enengy efficiently. These questions are cons'idered in sub-sections d 1 .5. 1- 1. 5.4.

1.5"1 The Af fect of Urban Si ze and Compactness on Resident'ial Ener"gy Consumpti on

Selection of a l'imited number of large c'ities withjn a common phys'iographic negion provides an unban laboratory in which to cons'iden residential energy consumpt'ion and energy efficiency in relation to urban si ze and compactness. Spec'i fi cal ly, thj s j nvesti gation addresses (1) variat'ions'in nesidential dens'ity, dìstance to the centnal cone, and residential enengy consumption fon tnacts in 'larger and smaller cities; (2) changes ìn residential energy consumption which nesult from differences in urban size on compactness; and (3) the effect of res'idential density on residentìal energy consumption unden thr"ee altennat'i ve scenarios. -36-

I.5"2 The Impact of Residential Density and Distance to the Unban Core on Residential Enengy Consumption

In considening the relationship of residential density, journey-to-work to the core, and res'idential energy consumption, the f ol I owi ng quest'ions a ri se:

(1) How do changes in residential density in unban tracts affect residential enengy density and household energy consumption?

(2) How are changes in res'idential energy consumption reflected jn the fonm of urban areas? For example, how do changes in residential density and energy consumption alter the dependency of r"esidential areas on automobiles for journey-to-work and on singìe detached dwellings as a predom'inant urban form? The form of an urban area includes anchitectural indicators such as shape, size and position and also urban des'ign consideratjons such as urban movement systems and the infrastructure required to service unban areas. To the extent that urban movement systems both require and canry enengy they can influence urban form and urban energy efficiency. ô

1.5.3 The Effect of Age and/or Res'idential Building Cond'it'ions on Res'identi al Energy Consumpt'i on

l,lithin this issue the fol'lowing questions are addnessed:

(l) How do age and/or bu'ilding conditions in the selected cities or the'ir nes'idential tracts affect resident'ial energLy consumpt'ion and consequentìy, the efficiency wìth which residential areas are able to use availab'le energY?

(2) How do residential enengy consumption, r'es'idential clensity and distance from res'identjal tracts to the unban core vary wìth the -37

age and building cond'itions of the selected cìty or with the location of its respective resident'ial tracts?

1.5.4 Urban tnergy System Efficiencies in Selected Large Cities and Tracts and Thejr Use of Available Enengy

An energy system nefens to a regular or otderly way of producing and/on distrjbut'ing energy to a network of customers. For exampìe, these may be in dwellings or vehicles. Urban energy systems are enengy pnoduction and d'istribution systems usually in ol near urban areas or cities. Some important questions with respect to such systems are:

(1) What energy resources are available or potentia'l for nesiclential/commercial and other punposes in selected cities and tracts?

(Z) l,,lhat are the exi sti ng system ef f i ci enci es of res i denti al energy use in selected cities?

@ (3) Do resjdent'ial densities and other charactenist'ics of selected large cities provide potential alternatives for env'ironmental conditioning and other energy consumpt'ive purposes? For example, could residential/commercial tracts use centra'lìy produced thermal energy directly nather than depend'ing on combustion of fossil fuels within'indiv'idual residential buildings?

(4) phat are some possible density limits for distributjon of thermal energy 'in residentjal /commenc'ial areas of selected cities? CHAPTER II - LITERATURE REVIEI{

Inthisdissertatjon,theliteraturereviewprovidesan general and spec'i f ic materi al opportun.ity to seek out and exami ne both experìence and other which offers background, precedents, comparable .information reseanch' Essentia'l'ly' 'it usef ul on the subiect of the from broader concerns' such represents a seanchjng process which ranges and efficiency to canada's as the 'importance of energy consumption cletajled considerations of urban compet.itive econom'ic position, to more res'idential energy.

In its three parts, this chapter provides a review of:

ssues ava'il abl e i n (1) l.itenature on energy conservati on and rel ated i theEnglish]anguage,fromnonthwesternEuropeandfnomNorth Amerì ca i n the Years s'i nce 1960; È .iterature energy perspect'ives (2) rel evant I on urban model s ancl inc]udingconsiclerat.ionofsomecljff.icultiesjnvolvedinlarge.sca'le urban model I i ng; and

(3)l.iteratureofpart.icularrelevancetospecificaspectsofthe research desi gn'

2.IANOVERVIEI,I0FTHELITERATURE0NENERGYC0NSERVATIONANDRELATED URBAN POLICY SINCE i96O

Theeff.icientuseofenergyiscjoselyrelatedtoitsrelat.ive scarcìty.inthewonldeconomyandenergyconsumptìoncondjtionsand

-38- -39- 'industrial policies \^,'ithin the economies of enengy-dependent countries " In the years following the Second Wonld War, most European countries were obl'iged by necessìty to use non-renewable energy resounces prudently. Consequently, jn thjs period, energy was used more efficiently than in Nonth Amenica. It is not surprising thenefone, to find that turopean literature on energy conservation from academe and ìndustry is more developed than in Nonth America. For example, 'in Sweden, Denmank and West Germany, where impnoved enengy efficìency and conservat'ion are c'lose'ly linked to national unban and industnial poììc'ies, the litenature not only ìncludes academic and government publications, but also includes material on urban energy systems developed by or for expor"t-oriented industries (Muìr I976; Larson 1977)

2.1.I Selected turopean Literature on Energy Consenvation

By the early 1970's many turopean munjcipal'ities and their energy 'industries had developed sophist'icated hardwane systems for enengy consenvation, including thermal heat powen stations (Rieber I977; Muir 1976),'insulated thermal pipeline systems (Mikkeìsen 1977) and advanced thermal energy distrjbution technology designed to serve entire communities or cìties (Kar'lberg 1977; Wahlman 1977). They had a'lso produced "softwane" in the fonm of publications on enengy conservation and related plann'ing princ'iples and pnobìems, as well as ernpìr'ical analyses deal'ing wi th the econom'i cs and techni cal aspects of energy efficient urban development (Danìsh Board of D'ìstrict Heat'ing 1977).

Although Great Bnjtain has not been a leaden among the'industrial countries in the technology of urban energy conservation, jt has produced some important techn'ical l'iterature (Turpi n 1966; Di amant. 1970; Dryden 1975). For example, during the late 1960's Diamant wrote sevenal books on total ener"gy systems, energy conservation and distt"ìct heatìng. These jncluded: Space And D'istrict Heating (Djamant and McGarny 1968) , wh'ich nevjewed techn'ical developments ìn the U.K. and elsewhene in Europe, and pnovìded usefuì parameters on the design and 40 performance characteristics of therma'l power plants and on urban and regi ona'l I'im'its for thenmal energy di stri bution systems ; and Total Energy, (Diamant 1970), which explored a wide range of substantjal technical ìssues, incìuding co-generation, and appìications of total enengy systems j n bu'i I d'ing comp'lexes and urban aneas of I arge ci ties. Nonth American examples wene also cited.

With a similan pnofligacy in enengy use and ineffic'iency ìn energy systems design in Canada and the United States, and gìven the close Iinks between the economies of the two countries, jt'is useful to consjder North American examples of research in unban energy conservation. 0f particular intenest 'is nesearch into the related questions of resìdent'ial density, urban travel d'istance, and household energy consumption in both countries, 'immedjately before and after the 1973 enengy cri si s.

2.I.2 Unban Energy Consenvat'ion jn North America Prior to 1973

in North America, energy conservation and jts appìjcation to unban po'licy have been recent developments. For example, a 1979 computen search of Ph.D djssentation abstracts on the subject of energy conservatjon and related urban po'licy issues from the early 1930's to the late 1970's revealed that durìng that interval, little research had been unclentaken on empirical problems of urban energy conservation. From 1934, on'ly a few d'issertations were nelevant to thìs suhrject. None had been undertaken 'in Canada.

Two nelevant dissertations 'in U.S. universities wer e "Thenmodynam'ic Evaluation of tnergy and Waste Heat Utilizatjon" (Bashiene 1973) and "Energy Conservatjon Through Urban Tnansportation Planning" (Carnier' 1974). The former considened technical engineering (therrnodynamìc) aspects of the use of waste heat from nuclear powened thenmal pl ants and potentì a'l appì'icati ons of such thermal energy for -41 - urbanpurposes.Thelatterrev.iewedrelationshjpsbetween transportationandurbanenergyconsumptìonintheUnit,edStates,w.itha partìcu]aremphasisontheenengyconsumpt.ioncharacteristicsofurban passengertranspot.t.Carrier,sd.issertationa]Sopresentedasystems approachforevaluat.ingthirty.seventechniquesforconservingpassenger in veh'icle design and transport energy' These ìncluded changes operatingcharacterist.ics,modeshjfts,fueleconomyimprovements;and travel reductions in vehicle miles of '

Ataphiìosophicaì]evel,algT3dissertat.ionent'itled.'Prologue state" prov'ided a semi nal eco'l ogj cal to a pol i ti cal Theory of the steady per.spect.iVeonresourceuti]izationwhichult.imatelyresu]tedinabook onthesamesubject(0phu1s1977).Argu.ingforanendto'....endless technologicalgrowth"'0phulssuggestedthatavalidalternative techno]ogymustbebasedonecologicalandthermodynamicprem.isesthat arecompatìblewiththecoexistenceofmanandnatuneoverthelonger term;asaconsequenceitmustnecessarjlyavoìdmerelyquant'itatìve progress,andstr.iveinstearltomaximizeamen.ityandgener"a.lhuman cost wel f are at mi n'imum materi al '

Giventhecompìexjnter^d'isc.ipl.inarynatureofenergyconservation.ly .i cal probl ems of urhan po.| ì cy, and spec.i f and ì ts re] atì onsh.ip to physica.lplanning,thedearthofacaclemicresearch(atthePh.D.level), formostofthecentury.isnotsurpr'is.ing,sjncehistor.ica.llysuch researchfocussedwith.inwe]1-def.inedestablishedacademicand professionald.isc.iplines.However,.inNorthAmer.ica,theexjstenceofa longentermprobleminregardtonon.renewableenergydepìetionancl energyeff.iciencywasnotw.idelyrecognìzeduntilthelate1970.s. litenature, inclucling technical A neview of the profess.ional journaìS'governmentpub.l.icat.ionsandpub.lishedbooksonenengy conservatìonandunbanpol.icy,inbothCanaclaandthel',:'.],further confìrmed]jmited'interestinthesubjectareaunt.i]themid1970.s. -42-

Exceptions included a small number of well established researchers and scholars whose writings on resource efficiency and the environment fnom the 1950's to the 1970's foreshadowed some of the climactic events in world energy of the earìy 1970's. For example, Kenneth Bouìding (1969) and Ni cho'l as Georgescu-Roegen (1971) 'in poì i ti cal economy, Earl Cook (1971), and M. King Hubbert (1969) in geology and geophysics, Farrington Daniels (196a) and John Holdren (1971) in physics, and Raymond F. Dasmann, John P. Milton and Peter H. Freeman (1973) in ecology, a]1 shared, either exp'licitly or imp'licitly' a common perception. This perception assumed that Scance natural resources, and in particular non-renewable energy resources, are finite, and thein efficient use is 'life essential if a sustainable satisfactory environment and quality of for man is to be achieved, at acceptable cost, into the 21st Century and beyond. The following examples are illustrat'ive.

Georgescu-Roegen in The Entropv La w and the Economi c Process (1971) argued for refnaining from consuming energy "stock" in the form of non-renewable resout"ces and shiftjng instead to the use of, or dependence on energy "fìows" (i.e. solar energy or its by-products: win6, t'ides, and hydrauljcs). He also angued fon policjes whjch would use thermal energy in forms appropriate to the requirements of demand.

cook (1971), analysing man's use of energy in jndustrial societies, observed that:

l^lhile the U.S. contains 6% of the world's popuìat'ion'it uses 35% of the worlds energy. In the long run, the limited factor^ jn high'levels of energy consumption wiìì be disposa'l of waste heat.(P.83)

To ovencome this anticipated prob]em, he concluded that:

Major changes in powen technology will be required to neãuce poìTut'ion ãnd manage wastes, to improve efficiency of the system and to remove the resource ava.i I ab.i li ty consträi nt. Maki ng the changes wi I I cal I io. rrãra poiitical decisions. Ene¡gy needs will have to -43-

be weighed agaìnst env'ironmental and social costs; ..... Democratic societies are not noted for taking the long review in making decision. Yet indefinite growth 'in energy consumpti on i s si mply not possi b'l e. (p .91)

Hubbert (1969, 197 1), while finding that the epoch of fossil fuels is quite brief in human history (only 200 - 300 years), proiected that over 80 per cent of the world's liquid fossìl fuels would be consumed in a 65 year period from approxìmate'ly 1970 - 2035. He also observed that while other non-nenewable fuels have a ìonger time fname (e.g. coal ), like oil, they too must inevitably deplete. He concluded that, not withstanding substantial technical progress in energy power plant systems and related effic'iencies, the world cannot continue a'long

- ^a i ^i ^- pasE courses ln ïuf,ure energy PUI- lsles.

It is true of powen p'lants or automobiles as it is of bi o1 ogi ca1 popu'lations that the eanth cannot sustain any physi ca'l growth for mone than a few tens of successive doubl i ngs . Because of this impossibil'ity, the exponential rates of industrial and popuìation growth that have prevailed duning the past century and a half must cease.

. . .. . the forthcomi ng peri od .. . . . can handly fai ì to face a major revis'ion in those aspects of oun thinking ..... that stem from the assumpt'ion that growth rates that have charactenized this temporary period can somehow be made penmanent (Hubbert 1971, 40).

Farnington Daniels (1964), who iclentified potentials and possìbilities of solar energy and its app'lications for urban and nelated purposes , conc'l uded that:

" .. . .. the yeans [after 1964] wi l l see the uti l'i zation of solar energy 'in many sun rich fuel poor ar"eas of the world" and the ground wiì1 be lajd for genena'l advances well befone the inevitable decrease in our fuel resounces requi nes alternative sources of energy-(p.260) -44-

HoldrenandHerrera(1971)putforwardtwopl"opos.itionsonthe general question of the energy crìsìs: along' â crjsis in as economists have known all First, by moderating demand as supply and oemanå"äãn"Ëå-*tt ;; .il,l' i:'nl :l'''låli"' riTI.å:i T; :i:fi :;:,,; tlü iì ti' Ëi iËrän¿-"uentuaÍ I Y. ( P'23)

Oneofthemostimportantwayswhichtheysuggestedformodenatìng demand,or,.wh.ittì.ingdownneedlessdemand'.wastoreducewastefu]uses of "a rat'ional energy budget"' of energy through development

energy should be The lìst of wasteful uses of '::" tnttgy-áãliy*plion-w'ithoi¡t oer cap'ita enough to suggest.tlgt a correspond'ing subétant.ial lv .äãtËäd could be ,tun¿uiä"ãi..li'i.é. spu.. heating ancl reduction ìn true twice as much energy transpotlution alone ptåttãniv use t o' nttátsa'^y so that ng as i s reasonabl iectons' could-makì reduce per upp.optíäiã tñåñgãs.'in"iñttt- (p'13a) capita ;ä;:ñ;iðñ-nv té pãrcent'

Despitetheobservat.ionsoftheseandotheranalystsuptol9T3' theinstìtutionalandprofessiona]energypolicyl.iterature.inNorth Americawasheav.ilypreoccupìedwithmainta.in.ingsuppl.iesof non.renewableenergytofueìanassumedcont.inuationofunbrjd]ed econom'icgrowth.LessattentionWasgiventothenatuneofsuchgrowth anditsrelationshiptoenergyconsumptionandeff.icìency.inresponse pri ces 'in 1973 achi evi ng nat'ional to sharp i ncreases i n 0PEC ' self-suffìciency,Pnìmar.i.lythroughsubstantial]yjncneasedenergy supplies,andmovìngtowor.ldenergypr.icesbecametheimportantpubl.ic energypolicyobjectives.inNorthAmer.icatotheearlylg80,s.Forand energy a two-year inqui ry into f ue'l example, 'in 1973, f ollowing po.l.icies,aU.S.Senatelnter.iorCommitteereportrecommencledmeasures to,...... drast.ical.lyt.iltthescales.infavorself-suffic.iencyforthe -45-

United States," and 'in addition " to reduce neliance on foneign fuels" (U.S. Senate Intenion Committee 1973).

In the fall of 1973, the tJ.S. Administration nesponse to the OPEC cnisis, entitled Project Inde pendence, cons'isted of measures to incnease domestic energy pnoduction by providing new incentives and oppontun'itìes for (oil and gas) exploration and development. Although these recommendations also included some "demand management" measures designed to restrict the use of energy, such as "reduced auto speeds, lower thermostats, cold water detergent, mandatory auto tune-ups and jncreased car poo'ling," they provided little which might otherwise be defìned as enengy conservatjon (U.S. Federal Energy Administration 1974).

Up to 1974, Canadìan pub'lic policy also offened little w'ith nespect to energy conservatjon. Non was thene, as yet, much pub'lic initiatjve to reconsider national or provincial energy growth projections. By the mid-1970's these were runn'ing at 4.4 to 5.6 percent per yean. However, despite a lack of comprehensive long-range p'lanning for energy policy ìn North America, and'in particular, pìanning for energy conservatjon on a'large scale, a number of valuable studies and other ef forts 'in emp'i rical reseanch were begì nni ng to emerge.

2.I.3 The Influence of the Environmental Movement on North Amenican Energy Conservation and Related Pol'icies

In the late 1960's and ear'ly 1970's, some of the U.S. literature dealing with energy polìcy and energy conservation nevealed the emergence of cons'iclenable countervailing pressures between the energy suppìy lobby and the influence of the environmental movement. For examp'le, Bornelli (1971), whi'le suggesting that:

Lawmakens and negulatory bodjes are stymied by the simultaneous cl amor for more lelectn'ic] power" and a better env'inonment, noted that their unresponsiveness ... to the dynam'ics of social fonces ... has resulted in ìegions of informed cìtizens cneatìng new forums, -46-

forcing others to become mone responsive and [rediscovening] a wide array of democratic weaponry. (p . 11)

Holdr"en and Herrena (1971) suggested mone d'ispassionately that:

thoughtful observers on both sides worry about the costs of bringing pollution and depletion, realist'icaì'ly, into the balance sheets, and how the resulting increase jn the cost of energy wi I I effect the poor" at home and abroad. (p.23)

Concern with envinonmental issues was also intensifying ìn regand to the environmental pollution and hazard implications of fossil fuel and nuclear enengy. These hazards included sulfur d'ioxide, n'itr"ogen oxide, acjd nain, tnace elements, carbon dioxide and nad'ioactive fission products. For example, in coal production, Honwitch (1982, 113) argued that "serious problems exist at practical'ly every part of the coal system. " In the area of nucl ear enengy, r'lhì I e acknowl edgi ng the "jnflammatory" jssue of reactor safety arising after Three Miìe Island, Bupp (1982), reviewing the histony of nuclear development in the U.S., suggested that:

the unnesolved pnoblem of spent fuel fnom reactors ..... stands jn the way of new ordens and thneatens the operation of both pìants already in the pipeìine, or under construction. (p. 137)

Referning to "a'large gap in scientific knowledge about ìong term nadioactive waste disposal" Bupp (1983) also acknowledged that "... the fprematune] bu'ildìng of a number of nuclear powen systems proved veny costìy for everyone involved." He angued furthen that the fajlure of governments to deal honestly w'ith the concenns of environmentalists and others'in the 1960's contjnues to impede pnogness in the development of nuclear energy. As a result, he concluded that:

In the United States, there is simply no neasonable possib'iììty for "massjve contributions" fnom nuclear p owen for at least the rest of the twentieth century.(p.171 ) -47-

Given that most u.s. erectn'ical ener-gy and a'large propontjon of electrical energy in Canada derive from thermal generation, incìud.ing nuclear and coal , and that thermoclynamic laws result in only one un.it of usable electricity (out of the generator) for every two units of heat produced (at the tur"bine), a gnowing concenn with environmental planning problems and nelated effects of thermal poìlution emerged in North America in the 1960's. Fon example, in 1968, a vandenbilt un.iver^sity reseanch team undertook a study of thermal po]l ut'ion impacts of power production and other sounces. Their neport, entitled Thermal pollut'ion - Status of the Ant R eport , conc'luded that, if no policy intenventjon occunred, on the bas'is of power plant and other majon thermal enengy systems then projected, under constnuction, or compìeted, oven b0 percent of the waten in U.S. niver systems would be r.equired for cooìing pur"poses by the late 1990's (Panker^ and Knenkel ig69). However, a I iterature nev'iew b¡, Mandel l (1974) , rrrhi ch analysed nesearch and practicaì projects on both sìdes of the Atlantic, clemonstrated how 1ar"ge quantities of otherwjse wasted thermal enengy could be constructìvely j used if appropn'i ate pol i ci es were ntnoduced to I i nk agri cu1 tural , unban, and 'industrial developments with energy production systems.

In Canada, studies similar to Mandell's had been undertaken w'ith the objective of expìoring positive alternatives to the ther"mal waste pnoblem. Fon examp'le, a L972 study prepared for the National Reseanch Council of Canada demonstrated the benefits of using waste heat fnom large thermal p]ants for djstrict heating (Brown rgTz). In the same year, a study for Envinonment Canada reviewed techniques for reducing thermal po'llution by product'iveìy util'izing waste heat, and hìghlìghted opportunities and potent'iaìs for increased ener"gy efficìency from compnehensive approaches to urban development, ener"gy development, ancl power productìon (Cook and Biswas 1972). 4B

2.L.4 Canadian Energy Policy After 1973 - The Emengence of Ener"gy Conservat'i on Consi derations

In 1973, Canadjan enengy po'licy focussed primari'ly on supply-oriented measures. Howeven, 1974 marked the beginning of more substantive energy policy initjatjves ìn enengy conservation. For exampìe, in that year, an Office of Ener"gy Conservation was established within the Ministr"y of Enengy, Mines and Resounces - Canada "... to develop and recommend a program of energy conservation and to pìay a coordinat'ing role in that policy area,. (Canada EMR 1973)"

At about the same time, the Science Council of Canada commissioned F.K. Knelman to pnepare a major background papen. The paper, entjt'led Energy Conservation, repnesented one of a number of efforts by the Seience Courrcil to ass'ist ìn developing a national penspective on energy pol'icy'issues, incìudìng enengy consenvation. Patterning his anaìysis on data and methodologies developed in sjmilar U.S. studies, Knelman developed a comprehensive picture of Canadjan energy consumption withjn the four sectors of transpont, nesidentjal-commenc'ial, industny and electric utjlities. Using short-term, m'id-term and 'long-term t'ime frames extending oven a 20 year period, a serìes of projectjons fnom 1975-1995 was presented. The major innovation of the study was described as:

... an attempt to trace out the rate and path of 'imp'lementation of conservat'ion measunes in a plausible and real'istic manner over each of the tìme peniods (Kneìman 1975 , 27).

Approachìng conservation "via enhanced efficìency and only to a lesser degnee demand management," Knelman argued that substantial energy consumption and efficiency ìmprovements could be achieved jn each sector over a 20 year tnial per"iod. These jncluded improvements of 29 percent fon transport, 31 percent for res'ident j al and commercj al , 30 percent fot" industny, and 9 pencent for electrical utilìtìes. -49-

Amor^y Lovins In 1976, the scjence counc'il of cana'da commissioned 'long canada's energy consumpti on to rev.i ew range forecasts of ' Lov'ins suggested that cons.ider.ing a 50 year time f rame of 1975-2025, without significant canada could achieve acceptable growth objectives be done' he argued' increases jn effective energy rJemand. Th'iS COuld Primary through more vigorous pursuit of conservation obiectives' exajoules, less than half energy.in the year 2025 could be as low as 9.9 oftheenergvdemandsthenprojectedbyEnergyMinesandResources of growth (Lovins canada for sìmiìar (or close to 2 percent) levels objectives 1976). Lovìns also suggested that even lower energy demand gi ven funther conf i nmat'ion were possible. In Ig77 , Lov'ins argument was atYorkUnjversitybyateamofresearchens,whoconcludedthata than 5'3 exaioules per canad.ian energy consumption obiective of less 1977)' annum was achievable (Robinson et al

InlgTT,atechnicalbackgroundpapenpreparedfortheLEAP (sect'ion 2'3'5) projected repont for Energy M'ines and Resources canada upper]imitprimar.yenergyconsumptionscenariosbasedoneconomjc 2000 and 2'3 percent from growth pr^oiect'ions of L.1 pencent from 1975 to 21 exaioules respective'ly (Gander and 2000 to 2005 as 16.8 exajoules and Belaìre1978).hJhi]ethesubstantjalreductioninCanadjanenergy consumptionenvisagedbynon-governmentalanalystssuchasKnelman' Lovins,Robìnsoneta.l,appeanedjntheshortruntohave]ittle which were based on more influence on Federal government enengy policies 1970's and eanly 1980's energy conventional assumptions, ìn the late analysts gave rise to a new conservatìon potentìals suggested by these generatìonofnon-govef.nmental.energyanalysesinCanada.Th.isnew appnoachbegantofocusonachievingsustainableener.gyconsumption based on "soft-energy path" f utures with'in each (prov'incial ) region analys.istechniques(A1ternat.ives1979,1980).Severalofthese section 2'3'5' reg'ionaì enengy anaìyses are discussed in

.impact energy cri s'is, urban enengy As a result of the of the 1973 serious consiclerat'ion jn all po'l.icy in the mid 1970's began tO receive 50

nonthern 'industrial countrjes. For example, in October L977, in response to a recommendation of the UN Economic Commission fon Europe (ECE), and following on Canada's successful efforts in hosting the UN Habitat Conference in Vancouver in 1976, the Government of Canada offered to host a UN sponsored seminar in 0ttawa entitled "The Impact of Energy Considerations in the Planning of Human Settlements." Compr''ising countries from both Eastern and l^lestern Europe, the sem'inar focussed on enengy pol icy issues of physical planning, urban and regional planning, new and existing bu'iìdings, and methodologìes. l,l'ith each pantic'ipating nation, and its respectjve non-governmenta'l organizations, contnibuting top'ic and response papers on these subjects, the semjnar provìded a unique opportunity for Canadian nepresentatjves and non-govennmental ongan'izatìons to become familiar with state-of-the ant developments in urban energy conservation policies jn other ECE countries. The seminar also helped to ident'ify for Canadian pol'icy makers some of the technical, jnst'itutional and economic pnobìems which must be resolved 'in order to keep pace w'ith othen northern'industrial countnies in matters of enengy poì'icy, and to'increase enengy efficiency and urban energy conservation. Some relevant seminar submissjons included papers on d'istrjct-vs-decentnalized heating systems, and on methods and techniques for taking enengy consjderations ìnto account when preparing community pìans and development (ECE Ener"gy Seminar 1977).

Seminar papers also confinmed that, in necent decades, thene has been an incneasing recogn'ition that jt is important to take advantage of urban design potentials to achieve more efficìent use of available urban energy. Regardless of.fuel consumed ìn power p'lants, or whether they are centraljzed on decentnalized, an essentjal cons'ideration jn unban energy conservation 'is match j ng the quaì ì ty of ava j I ab'le energy (e.g. temperatur^e) with the bas'ic energy tasks requi red in unban aneaS. Consequentìy, 'it j s necessany to be able to pned'ict the extent to whi ch cit'ies and their unban tracts requìre energy for diffenent sectoral needs and to be able to efficiently match these needs with appropr^ìate -51 -

resources. Such energy matching is a prerequisite, fon example, to the establishment of centralized thermal enengy distnibution in unban areas.

Also of relevance to reduced residential energy consumptíon, and increased end-use efficiency and urban well-being, are multivaniable studies of basic interrelationships which affect enen!¡y consumption for unban transportation and urban deveìopment. In 1977, the Canadian delegation to the ECE Energy Conference identified this as an important emenging issue (Canada ECt Secretariat 1977). In 1980, a Federal budget pub'lication indicated that funding was available thnough 1978-80 to undertake such multivariable studies (Ledwe'll 1980). To date, however, no compnehensive studies of these relationships have been published in North Amen'ica, and the need for such nesearch continues if long term enengy conservation po'licies ane to be effective.

2.2 URBAN MODELS AND INERGY PERSPICTIVES

Urban conditions in'lange c'ities, as in other complex systems, sometimes require the app'l'icat'ion of predictive and/or sìmulatjon models to abstract from neality, where real conditions are too complex to effectively analyse or predict. Such models range from description and prediction of the performance of urban facilities, senvices and growth (Mayer'1969) to measurement, evaluat'ion, or prediction of the behav'iour and preferences of consumers or other decision makers. Urban services which ane commonly "modelled"'include the movement of goods and people in urban transport systems (DMATS, 1955; CATS, 1957; MTARTS, 1966); the suppìy and consumpt'ion of water, electricity, gâS, and communications; as well as the collection and treatment of urban effluents. Mone necently, urban energy has begun to be subjected to prospectìve model ìing (Mui r 1g76) -52-

Modelling of Compìex Urban Systems 2.2.1 Some Applìcat'ions of

'i physi cs emerged wi th orì gi ns n the I aws of U rban g ravi tY mode'l s analYsis of urban I ancl use with the-Law-elL-BgLa'!l as a method of of g an emp'irical approach to analysis Gravitat j on (Re'il ly 1931) ' Us'in Re'i'l'lY found that retail trade areas ìn 132 U'S' u rban areas,

twocjtiesattractretai]traclefnomanyintermediatecjtyor towninthevic'inityofthå'b;tki;öitlntapprox'imateìvinth. twô cit'ies and'in direcr p.äpo.iiån iä tn" ijãprì;;ì;"0þ these two to tn""täuå.ä ãï i¡. d'istances from inverse prãportion (p'9) cit'ies to'iñã inierme¿iate town'

distance, Re'i1'ly noted other In addition to population size and in retair trade area' inc'rud'ing factors whieh might resurt in variations transportfacil.it.ies,linesofcommun.ication,bus.inessservices,sociaì, recreat.ionalandcultura]facil.ities,parking,andbusjnessleadenship.

M.itche]]andRapkin(1954)jdent.ifiedandclass.ifiedthenature ofurbantraffìcinre]ationtoal]urbanlanduses.Theysuggestecl thatmuchofthepatternofurbandevelopmentcanbeexplainedbytheinstitutions bus'iness establishments and other movement requirements of inurbanareas,particu,lar.lywithrespecttolocations.inonnearthe urban centre. Iresults'in] of urban activities "'a a Soec'ializat'ion tõ make. accessibìf ity närvasive tenden:y"'f;;".tiãUlisf¡ñánis"åonli¿ã.ãiìor: th'is means access to maior locationul iì.*t"ä.-ñôusenot¿s;'.""Ëã.-iotn" - a central rhe tarsesr nu*o.i'äi'Ëã.iãni, 'in to an means convenience regard location; for otñers it 'in I other cases .inexpensi goods-*oíô*ãnt; and sti I ' u. .r,unnãì- or mi iy . ( p . i32) ì i=;ä;;; åãt'ii ôroxi

InthelgS0.sancl1960.s,urbanlanduseandtransportation modelsbegantobeusedextensive]yasamethodofanalys.ingtheuse' ava.ilabilityandclemandforunban]anduseancltransportationwithin ìangemetropo.l.itanareas(Detro.itMetropolitanAreaTraff.icStudyl955; -53-

Canroll and Bevis 1957; Chicago Anea Transpontation Study 1959). l',ith the advent of the electronic digita'l computer and its appì icat'ion for ur"ban research aften 1946, an 'impontant analytical tool was devel oped for processjng the comp'lex data genenated by urban models (Voorhees 1955). By the mid-1960's unban transpontation and utilities modelf ing had evolved considerably with the development of such analytical tools (Metropoìitan Toronto Area Regìon Transportatìon Study 1966).

In the subsequent twenty years, mìniatu¡izatìon of computer technology, increased processing speed and capacity, the development of the capabil'ity to analyse and descnibe multidjmensional configurations and massive decentralization of computers with extens'ive pre-packaged software have opened up new poss'ib'il jties for analys'ing and mode'l'ling thnee-dimensional time-nelatecl urban variables. It ìs now possjble to adapt most urban'information to analysis by computer, provìded the data for such analyses can be read j'ly accessed and pr"ovi ded that adequate software programs are ava'ilable or can be developed.

2.2.2 Model'li ng i n Urban Energy Ana'lys.'is

For almost a century, scientists and engineers have modelled and measured energy flows requ'ined to incnease efficiency in enengy production ancl consumptìon. In larger Eunopean cjt'ies, where thermal energy as well as electricity is often pnocluced and djstnibuted by municipalities, unban energy models of the input-output variety are an essential tool fon pubìic po]icy and planning (Figure 8). In fact, ìegislation under cons'ideration jn 1975 by Sweden's parl'iament called for federal and local authorit'ies to establish a comprehensive review process fon major enengy 'investments. It was widely accepted that plans should be based on -54-

FIGURE 8:

Enersy balcnse sheet far l"ínkëçrins poworcnd heotiffffTîfiif;J?,fla =Vâ

cseÑoÉar PUFCHASEb

11C]0 Êg LJ

Ei6El 463 rossEs / Pe¡3 Et 465

HEAT 71e 78 196

fn a g -

d Housrng Housrng Street liohtinE Electric heating Hou Shops lndustrral lnduslry Light Schools Consumption 'ndustry Other preñrises Agrrcullural

The figure shows the energy balance sheet fo r I974-7 5 for Lìnkoping, Sweden, a city of oven 100,000 popul at'ion an d with approximateìy 80 The heat flows in the diagram are pencent dì stri ct heati ng cover.age. 'is for" dj stri ct heat'ing consumens only, whi 1e the electrical energy for the c'ity as a whole.

SOURCE: Ne'il Mu'i r. I976. Combi ned Di strict Heat j ng and E'lectni c'ity Production in Sweden. Paper presented to a Sympos'!u¡¡or Energy Pnoducti on 'in the Bui I t-Env'i ioiment Ganston, Engl and. Fi nspong, en: a va ut' n gure 2. p.6. -55-

supp'ly patterns' a study of actual consumptìon and thorough [inds of 9'ergv, and a studv forecast of consum;;i;'oi-varibùt consideration economv poss'inte suppii";å;it;;t,illinq into of suppíy iecuri ty (Karl berg 1977 f j nanci ng, envl .å"n,r,ãñtur and ' e-10).

In.itslgTTnationa]energylegìslat.ion,Denmark,ineffectproposed sjmilarrequinementsformunic.ipa.|.itiesinaneffonttorationa].izethe pr^oduct.ionanddistr.ibutionofe]ectnic,ityandthermalenergy(Larson r977).

Inthedevelopmentofcomprehens.iveurbanenef'gyanalyses' varìablessuchasbuildingdens.ity,bui.ld,ingdesigncharacter.istics,and spat.iald.istributionofunbandeve]opmentareimportantconsideratjons. A.lso'importantarequestionsofresident.ia]energyqtrantityandcost' notonlyforspacecond'it.ionjng,waterheat,anclpowerforapplianees' buta]soforessentia]residentialtransportat.ionneeds,suchasthe journeY-to-work'

2.2.3SomeProb]emsofUrbanEnengyAnalysis.inNorthAmericanCitjes ð

Althoughgìobalornationa]energypenspectjvesonfutureenergy supplyanddemandandrelatedproblemshavebeendeveiopedjnNorth America'moreoftenthannottheyhaveeither^beentheoreticalana.lyses basedon:(1)projectionsofaggregateddata,suchasRnErrepPo]jj.L- 1973)' or the 1974 MIT Energy Canada: Phase 1 (Canada EMR for Economiç- Sel f-Suffi cìency: An Laboratory pol'i cy study Energy ' aggregated data and gtoss Evaluation (Adelman et al 1974) i Q) assumptions(Kne1man1975);or(3)acrosssectionofopin'ionsor' judgementsbyinformed'internationalexpertsus.ingcle.lphitechniquesor othermethods(Sm.i11974;0'Too]e1978;StauboughandYerg.inlgB3).of emp'inical been clenived f rom an analys'is Rarely have such perspectives dataforspecif.icurbanorotherenergyconsum.ingregìons(Fe.lsand Munson1975).Consequently,theappl.icabi]ityofglobaìonregional modelstoanalyseenengyinspec.if'icurbanareashasbeen]essuseful 56 thanm,ighthavebeenthecaseifmorespecìficanddetajledev.idenceof studi es wh j ch were urban energy had been systemati ca]'ly devel opecl. (Feìs and MUnSOn undertaken in urban areas, such as Trenton, New Jensey and 'in the 1975), have been l'imjted in thein degree of comprehensiveness 'important prec.is.ion of thej r energy data. Nevertheless, they represent progress in unban energy analysis'

and urban analyses Gravi ty mocleì s of I and use and transpor^tation, partjcular of a more specific nature have been developed to addness have included modal unban variables or constra'ints. such variables spl.itandjourney-to-wonkdjstance,timesavings,andrelated have not cost-benefit considerations. However, urban tnansport models nelatedresìdentialprototypes,transpot'tsystemsortravel a three varìable characteristies to household energy consumption -- approach.Thereanedangersinattemptingtodevelopacomprehensjve approachtourbanenergyanaìysis.Forexample,thesoundnessof',ìange need for care in pred'ictive scale,, appr^oaches to urban analysi s and the unban quest jons have been ì dent'if i ed model 1 ì ng in address'ing f undamental Reljance on simpler as a matter of concern (Alonzo 1968; Lee 1973). * suggested' more p-ragmatic approaches has also been

Leeeva]uatedsuccessjveeffortstoconstructandapplylarge that such models were scale moclels in a plann'ing context. He suggested toocomp.lex,requiredexcessiveclata,attemptedtoachìevetoomany data, and were too purposes, requìred dig.ita.| computers to process thejr an inspection and evaluation expens.ive for the results achieved. From ofprevìouslar^gesca.Iemodelsanclthe.irresults(whichhed,idnot guideì'ines: document), he suggested the following object'ivity (1) A bal ance should be obta'ined betweèn theory' theory nesults in a and intuit'ion. Excess'ive concern for Drobl em, but pol i cy cannot I oss of contact ,,îiñ-ir,.-pol.icy format'ion. be formurated *.ïi-*ii¡rout a siräng theoretical -57 - (2) Start with a particular policy problem that needs solving not a methodology that needs appìy'ing Work backward f rom the prob'l em matchi ng spec'i f i c methods wi th speci f i c purposes and obta'ining just enough infonmation to be able to p rov'i de adequate poì i cy gui dance (3) Build onìy very simple models. The sk'ill and discipìine of the modellen is in figuring out what to djsregard in bui I di ng h'i s model . (4) Planning i s 'in the unique position of being oriented around unban probìems rather than around any d'iscìpline of science. The field can draw fr^om othens selecting only those theories and methods that will be most useful.(p. 17 5-17 6)

2.3 LITERATURT OF PARTICULAR RELEVANCE TO THE RESEARCH DESIGN

Thjs sub-section focuses on aspects of the l'iterature and related data whìch have dìrect applicat'ion to spec'ific components of the reseanch desìgn. These include: some ìmp1ìcations of urban desìgn on the ener.gy characterìstics of large cities, which js detajled in section 2.3.L; the relat'ionsh'ip between energy and land use, which'is revjewed in section 2.3.2; the relat'ionsh'ip between energy and urban tnansport, nev'iewed i n sect'ion 2.3.3; stati stical data sources on energy and unban development, which are rev'iewed in section 2.3.4; and sounces for anaìysjs of two paradigms fon hypothetical cìt'ies, which ane covered in sect'ion 2.3.5. In section 2.3.6, literature on alternative enengy futures uncler three scenarios is reviewed, and secti on 2.3.7 cons'idens analyses of alternat'ive energy futures for each of the three provinces of the Inteni on Pl ai ns.

2.3 .i Some Impf ications of Urban Design on the Enengy Charactenistics of Lange Citjes

In the early 1970's, 'in response to growìng concerns about environmental costs and theìr urban 'impacts, the U.S. Council on Environmental Qual'ity, the U.S. Department of Housing and Unban -58-

Devel opment (HUD) and the U.S. tnvi nonmental Pnotection AgencV (EPA) jointìy commjssioned a study of the impacts of ur^ban design on the overall costs of deveìopment (Real Estate Research). Although the study, entjtled TlLCgs'E_gl.lprywl , took account of energy use as a factor ìn its evaluation, the depth of its energy ana'lys'is was limited, in part, because enengy effjciency was not yet appneciated as the cnucial varìable it would become within a few years.

The study presented a senjes of hypothet'ica'ì residential sub-division configuratjons wh'ich were assumed to be located close to a typical fneeway intenchange. Among other things, the study found that: (1) i ncreased densi ti es and p'lanni ng pract'ices such as i ntegr^ated I and uses and innovative subdivision planning could reduce urban energy use by as much as 44 percent; and (2) increased urban densities could result 'in as much as a 40 percent saving in energy (Real Estate Research 1974).

The study approach and its conclusìons were also neviewed in the urban planning'literature (Altschuler L977). It was cr^'it'icizeci, among othen things, because it failed to account fon differences in the floon anea of its housing types. The same critic also suggested that real energy savings from high density were less than claimed and that enengy efficient pìanning would achieve only a fourteen percent savìng.

2.3.2 Ener^gy and Land Use - Some Costs of Urban Po'lìcy

Unban spatia'l structure, energy stud'ies, stimulation studies of al ternat'i ve buì ì di ng types , studi es of al ternati ve urban stnuctures , the nelative effect'iveness of a land use poì icy, and the costs of such a policy were examined in a paper entitled "Enengy and Land Use - An Instrument of U.S. Conservation Policy" (Keyes 1976).

In anaìysìng urban spatial stnucture, Keyes suggested that

the over"all relationshìp between patterns of land use (spat'ial stnuctune of urban areas) and enengy -59- consumption, holding constant, the'influence of climate, popul at'ion characteni sti cs, ì ntensi ty of i näustni al i zat'ion, end use ef f i c'i enci es and the I i ke denives fnom two intenme(iate relationships, one involving buiìding types and the othen tnavel behav'ioui. ..e eñergy used in any city ìl ... a result of its three-d'imensiónal structure. (p .225)

Keyes also found that disaggregated data on energy use in unban areas were unavailable and that descript'ions of urban spatìa1 structure depended on popuìatjon densìty analysis. He suggested that "the use of data on bujldjng type nather than population density provìde more .insi ghts', (p.ZZ7 ) and that mul t'i-fami ly bui ì di ngs are not I ess thermal'ly efficient than single family detached dwelìings'

0n land use and transpontation, Keyes concluded that:

Aìthough companison of f i nd1ngs f rom the vari ous transpontation studjes 'is i nhì b'ited bY the I ack of commensurate unÍts of ana'lysi s, the f ol I owi ng can be stated as general fi n di ngs: As population density increases, the number of Th'is appears be true non-pedestrian trips decneases. -to for i"roth genenally hìgh and genenal'ly low densjty urban areas (t¡rã Hong Kong sYndrome ) . As both population and employment density'incnease within urban areas, the percentage of trìps taken by automobi I e decreases.

As distance from the central business d'istr ìct (core) incneases jn Brìtìsh cities (a surrogate for decreasing póputation densjty), the average speed of traffic i ncreases.

j 'l va Ave nage met ropo'l ì tan t r p engt h has not shown to ry .onrìõtentlV i,rith average popuìation density, although p some d.i f ferênces betweeñ centr"al ci ty and subu nban tri iã.õtrt. have been observed (Keyes I976, ?27)'

In terms of relative effectiveness of a land use policy as a tool 'in energy conservat'ion, Keyes obsenved that: -60-

inthecaseofenengyconservatjonstrategìesavailable degr^ee of evidence will onìy aìlow us to reduce the specu'lation about the effectiveness of each [and facilitate attemptsl "' to estimate the savings that from control of could reasonabìy be expected to obta'in pìace these 'in the new ctevelopment patterns and to ( p 232) context of savi ngs potenti aì ìy achi evabl e ' '

likely sav'ings from mone He also noted that ... Lover a decadel the efficjentlanddeve]opmentpatternsares.ign.if.icantbutnot dr^amati c. (P.23a)

Keyessuggestedthefol.low.ingpol.icyprescrìpt.ionsasameansto use control tools' and to encourage reduce the need for^ regu'latory land energy efficient urban development:

work to encourage sharp increases in price of fuels may clevelop*ãni puit..nt in the absence of more efficient techno]ogical increased rand use ..siiäiiãn. Likewise, i'prouã'ðntiinendui.ãtticjencìesandincneasedthe need fon thermal effic'iency standãrds may neduce add'itiånãf regu'lai'ion by.reduc'i ng,t!e. energy differentjalbetweenet?jcientandjneff.ic.ient rlevel oP*.ni Patterns ' (P '235)

Localgovernmentsitwassuggestedshouldbeencouraged',...t0 exp.lorearangeofopt.ions.,befor.esupportingenengyeff,ic.ientlanduse patterns" (p'235)' Fìnalìy and,,... greater manipu'lat'ion of development he argued that:

ur'!an areas ì nvol ves the devel opment and management. 9f' d.ifficulttrade-offsä-ðñõ',lt.ip.leobjectives..Thejust mav prove to be the n'ort itåtdii;"tiiìãient (p'236) cleadlìest fnom an arr-fotiution þerspectìve' -61 -

2.3.3 Energy and Urban Transport

An urban transportation and enengy analysìs model which was part'icu'lar1y relevant to issues of tnansportation and urban enengy in this dissertation was entitled "Enengy Thr''ift in Urban Tnanspontation - Options for the Future" (Fels and Munson 1975). Th'is study, undertaken in the Trenton, New Jersey Census Metropolitan Anea, examined patterns of urban transport energy consumption "... which ane conceivable for the ì ast quarter of thi s century. " (p.7)

The working laboratory selected for the study was Mencer County, N.J., whÍch at 304,000, by definit'ion, represented medium size cit'ies in the population range of 100,000 to 500,000. Using this unban laboratory and existing metnopoìitan tnansportation data, the study expìoned factons which'influence the demand for transportat'ion in an urbanized anea unden an assumptìon of increasingly scarce fossil fuels.

The study defined a spectnum of possibilities or "options" for irnpr^oved transpont ener^gy performance over t'ime. Energy consumption which resulted from po'l'icy preferences and livìng pattenns assumed unden each opt'ion were estìmated, and no option was viewed as more likely than any other. Because as many as 70 tnavel estimates defined each opt'ion, and many varied among optìons, it was observed that "no panticular enengy result could be attributed to any causal effect but only to a comb'i nat i on of them. " ( p .8 )

In thein results, Fels and Munson calculated that by the years 1985 to 2000, d'iffenences in per capita consumption of energy of fout' t'imes and ten tjmes, nespectìvely are poss'ible. These proportions represented the difference between "a luxury car option", Wh'ich assumed an affluent popuìation living jn dìspersed urban arrangements and drivìng less energy efficient autos, and an "enengy conscjous optìon" under whìch fewer and shorter trips wouìd be taken by more modest-'income households who would lìve closen to one another and to their wonk. Under this latter optìon, tnavel would also be by mone energy efficient 62

intermediate optìons was modes. Between these two extremes, a range of tnanspontation' fueì pnice assumed, including innovative forms of urban of these increases, modìfied automobjles, and various combinations variables.

urban structure Options wh'ich represented substant'ial changes in not all of the analysis were also explored by Fels and Munson. Although owi ng i ndi cated: of the.in research was documented, the for I 'rere

( 1) In a d'i s Pe nsed oPt'ion

annangements but householcls cont'inued to live in low clensity locatedonrelocatecltoshortentheirjourney-to-work;

ìarge empìoyment emp'loyers nespondecl by clustering in a few centres thnoughout the metropo'litan anea;

lowclensityresjdentjalvil.lagesdeve]opedanoundmajorwork d'istance (and centres signifjcantly necluc'ing jounney-to-wonk energy) for average househoìds;

non-worktripswerelargelyunaffectecl,howeven,whenecommencìa] 'l centnes tri ps wene act.i v.it.ies were al so cl ustered i n arger ' sf i ghtlY longer;

savingsof20percentand35percentwereest.imatedfonthemost energyconsum.ingopt'ionbylgS5ancl2000,respective.Iy.However' severaltechnologicalandenergypricechangeswere,incorporated jntothedevelopmentalcharacterìst.icsofthisoption.

(2) In a mone compact oPt'ion'

zed, but more disPersed hi gher^ dens'i tY f i vì ng was emPhas'i emP'loYment and devel oPment were non -cont i guous patterns of assumed. -63-

work trips were . non-work travel was greatly reduced while avenage resulting lengthened. However, the former outweighed the latter, for the in approx.imately 25 and 30 percent savings in consumpt'ion least efficient energy consumpt'ion patterns by 1985 and 2000 respecti velY.

2.3.4 Statist'ical Data Sources

are Two statistical data sources for this dissertat'ion 1981 Census of Perspect.ives canada III and data summaries from the statistics' canada. As a third volume in a serìes of selected soc'ial Pe rs pe cti ves Canada wh'ich i s brought together with'in a coveri ng theme ' III offers

... ô set of desct'ipt'ive essays which rely primari1y on statjstics to prðv.iãe a varieiy of perspectives on the I i fê. . ( Adl e r socì al and econori å-i.ãtr.et o? Canã¿i an . and Brusegard eds. 1980, V)'

such as The study comprises fifteen chapters on topics Chapter 11, Urban Popuìation, Health, Educatjon, ll¡onk, and Justjce. profiles, (Mitche'll and Bond 1980) and chapter 13, the use of tnergy ìn this (Leyes, Fitzgerald and Mitchell 1980) are of nelevance 'investigation. For example, Chapter 11 exploned

23,large unban ... some aspects of the multiform'ity 9f åråu.-.in canada. This can be viewed from three perspect'ives ... differences and similarities between fi;-ffi-ciiìes"... b.t*.en different areas'in the same of d'i f f enent .itv, . . . o. netwãen s'imi l ar di st ri cts ãitiát. (p.18s)

(1976) census metnopolitan areas (CMA's) * These c.ities contain labour market in with populatìons"ìn' .iããti'or fOó,0öó anä a ma'in an urbani zed core or bui'lt up area' -64-

Chapter'1f is d'ivided into two parts: (A) The Urban Residents, which deals with òharacteristics such as population gr^owth and change' immìgration, education, and socio-econom'ic profiles; and (B) the Urban Environment, which deals w'ith economic activity, the natural environment, the man-made environment and the soc'ial environment" The thnee selected cities in this rdissentation ane among the twenty-three cities analysed by Mitchell and Bond (1980). The three zones in the thr.ee cities fnom which tracts in this ana'lysis are selected cornespond cìosely with the zones identified by Mitchell and Bond, namely: Centnal Anea, Mature Subunbs and the New Subunbs and Fringe'

Chapter' 13 pnovides aggregate ene¡gy consumption fon alI types of ener"gy sources for domest j c and othen purposes. hlfìi I e no enengy eonsumptìon breakdown js pnovided between nunal and unl"ran aneas or within unban areas of the twenty-three lange cities, the chapten is useful .in provìding time-series data on energy consumption'in canada over many decades

2.3.5 po'lycentnic Unban Models or Centralized Unban Megastructunes - Two Paradigms for Hypothet'ical Cities

During the 1960's, at least two dìfferent v'iews of resounce efficient unban form emerged. The first, art'iculated by some geognaphers and urban p]anners' suggested that consenvation of time and other resounces coul d best be achieved by urban decentral'izat'ion. For example, Gutkìnd (1962) argued that thìs would encourage decentral'ized urban patterns greater neliance on freeways and automobiles, depopulatjon of the central c'ity, and'increased dependance on telecommun.ications. Gottman and Harpen (1967) argued that app'lication of technology would make it'possible to str"engthen urban and regiona] patterns without sprawl. At the othen end of the urban spectrum was a Erskjne v.iew suggested by architects and urban designers such as -65-

(1961), Lynch (1961) and Tange (Boyd 1962), who suggested compact core cities or megastructures not unlike space stations or beehives. These were to be designed to provide efficient l'ife support systems fon large groups or whole communities on a sustained basjs. Under adverse envinonmental conditions, most urban functìons would be unden one roof.

Despite the extreme d'ifferences in their urban fonm these d'ifferent views about compact-vs-decentralized cities provide a useful scale for evaluating implications of conventìonal emp'irical urban development ìn a future of increas'ing resounce constraints. 0n any scale of unban design values, most large c'itjes fall between these notions of compactness or dispensal. In the 1970's, Golanyi (1976)' Goodman (L977) and Dantzig and Saaty (1973) explored ìmplications of such alternatives for energy resounces, transportation, and urban fonm. The fi nst two urere particular'ly re'levant to decentral'ized urban form, and the third illustrated a compact city.

2.3.5.1 Decentralized Urban Form - Golanyi undertook a sunvey of techn'ical'innovations wh'ich could fac'ilitate decentralized urban development. Goodman presented a theoretical parad'igm for urban decentnalization based on a comprehensive view of its social and economic impìications in a future of increasingly scarce non-renewable energy resources.

In an extensive sur^vey of innovatjve urban desìgn and related alternati ve techno'logY, ent itled Innovations for Future Cities, Go]anyi reviewed potentia'l advances in the appf ication of telecommunications and other technol og'i es, whi ch i nfl uence urban desÍ gn and devel opment. Among other th'ings, he examined the effect of teleconferencing on urban transpor"tation; the possible role of satellite centnes, neighbourhood centres, and the home, as work p'laces; and the possible impact of telecommunicat.ions on rapid ra'i'l transit. He also'cons'idered commut'ing -66- tìme and distance, capital and operating costs, and energy. In thjs reseanch, he pnemised that:

o.. impnovements in telecommunications may substitute for ìnteroffjce business trips thus reducing the need for clustering offìce activjt'ies in the central business district 'in order to facilitate face to face contact. ( p.26)

'larger Drawing upon a number of studìes of metnopolitan centnes, including work by Harkness (1973) , Goìany'i also showed how a relative'ly smalI amount of "teleconferencing" could have a dispt"oportìonateìy ìarge impact on unban land use and transportation. Cons'idering three dif fenent types of clecentral'i zed off i ces, satel l i te centres , neighbourhood centreS, and "work-at-home" anrangements, he showed how commuting patterns sh'ift when finms relocate to the suburbs. He also found that a satellite urban centre accelerates in importance thnough advances 'in tel ecommuni cations i n a manner quite d'if ferent f rom a neighbourhood urban centre:

The neighbourhood centre is fundamentally clìfferent from the satel lìte centre concept 'in that 'it f ragments organi zati ons 'instead of rel ocat'i ng them compl etel y. INevertheless, he noted]... the ne'ighbounhood office concept is fan less rad'ical than the work at-home scheme (computer') tenmìna'l f on each " .. with an el aborate worken w'ith no chance of the shar"ing that would be possible in Ioffice] centres. (p.43) W'ith respect to urban transpot't, Go'lyani concluded that: .. . unl ess off i ce emp'loyment gnows ìn central bus'iness d'istnjcts, new rap'id r^ail tnansit systems are not needed. In short, offìce decentnalization supported by increased telecommunicat'ions js a potentìa1 alternative to multjbillion dollan rail systems.(p.45) ... d.ispensing offìce jobs to suburhran satellite centres can reduce commuting by about half, while dìspersìng them to ne.ighbourhood centres can reduce commutìng to any desired level .(P.45) -67 -

In a decentral'ized growth pattern of four satellite centres' which are automobjle and/or personal rapid tnansit oriented, substant'ia1 tr.ansportation efficiencies over auto-rajl based systems are poss'ible to the cBD (Hankness 1973). For example, mone than one half b'illion dollars each have been estjmated as poss'ible savings for more than twelve large U.S. cities that were considening'impnoved on new auto-rail alternatives .in the mid 1970's (Go]anyi 1976, 47). 0n the question of energy efficiency, however, it was found that CBD oniented auto-ra'il jncreased rai'l concepts benefit to a greaten degree from efficiency of over othen modes.

urban A second book wh'ich made a strong case for decentralized Thj s was an effort to settl ements was The Doubl e E by Perci val .Goodman. pl theor ies update (to ttre m'id-1970's ) utop'ian soci al and econom'ic anni ng (Goodman ancl Goodman advocated in an earlier book entitlecl communjtas provi ded the 1947). In hi s 'introduction to the 1977 uprlate, Goodman nk'i ng not'ions ì n f ol I owi ng exp'l anati on of the need for a reth'i of Communitas.

es It was . .. feasi ble to recommend many possi bi I'iti ['in ðómnunitasl since for the fi rst t.ime in history ... wê iñ;äj ìn tñ. u.s. a surpìus-techno]osv "'tlgt iãiió".ãl for the mosr w.idety var"ious commun'iry ãrrangements and waYs of l'ife' The presumption was correct bt¡t who could have guessed. would rrôw buickly our ãppetites woul{ srow' our tyitlus ãi*i,iisn anO now'Uä¿ly we would ðhoose ... Limits not free'choice; scarcity not surpìus' are now the facts ilrãi wi il cón,cj tion óur f utune' (p'4)

hlith thi s revj sed penspect'ive, Goodman (L977 ) reclef i ned a based on two paradìgm for decentral ìzed urban ancl reg'ional p'lanning jnterrelatedconceptswh.ichweneofpantjcularconcernjnthe of jndustrialjzed wonld jn the mjd 1970's, "Economy (the management onganism and expenses) and Ecology (the mutual relations between concepts, designatecl envi ronment),, (p.115). In practìCa1 terms, these 68

'into by a Chi nese symbo'l wh'ich resembl ed a doubì e E, transl ated provìding,,.". the means by which all could produce a guaranteed subsistence earned through their own wonk" (p.174). As such, the j zed I 'i vi ng p'lann'i ng concept whi ch emenged resulted i n hi ghly rati onal nesidents and working areas, a high degree of self suffic'iency for most (e.g" 128,000 popu.|ation), mixed land uses (except for nuisance industries), and a close integration of farming and food production wjth gardens urban development thnough the'inclusion of farms and k'itchen with'in the limits of smal ler cit'ies'

squane Goodman.s paradigm housed ]'28,000 people withjn a 10.4 kìlometre area at a residentjal density of approx'imately 123 households per hectare. A hectare of garden space was allotted to every twenty-five inhabitants, and farm gardens or allotments were situated within a 1.6 kilometre ring surnound'ing the unbanìzed por^t'ion of the township. Along the ring roads on the outs'ide of the town were factories; special'ized centres des'igned to service farms, gardens, and called along the towns outer edges wene larger fanms and what were around al of thi S was an "basi c economy product'ion centres " . F'inal ly, I j nst j tuti onal and open space green belt contai ni ng reg'iona'l recreati on, , major transport fac'ilit'ies. The area covered by this urban "townshjp" popu'lat'ion was in the order of 260 square kilometres, at an average of this' density of 965 pensons pen square k'ilometre. (Further details Plate 1)' paradigm are found in chapters III and IV, and in Appendix 1,

need for improved 2.3.5.2 Compact urban Form - By the ear'ly 1940's, a things' product'ivity at the outset of the Second |llorld War, among other of st.imulated considenable'intenest jn archetypal relat'ionsh'ips (convent'ional) c'ity size, travel time, modal split and urban potentjals of eff.iciency. For example, a 1940 study whjch explored the more spatially efficient urban arrangements suggested:

the average city of 10,000 will have a nad'ius of one rii"-uña ã city-oi roo,ooo, a nadius of 2'3 miles and the city of one-ñali tíl'lión, 4'1 mìles' in a! idealized ãttutpii on of u.rrãit u..ut ( Siewa rt 1947 ' 179-180) ' -69-

oven a half A L942 survey indicated that the average resident of cities get mill'ion lived 4.8 mjles fnom work, and required 24 minutes to there. In these cities 60 percent travelled by mass transit and 30 percent by automobile (Branch Ig42). From the same year anothen sunvey suggested that

in cities of 25,000 to 100,000, 992 ol veh'icle o.. bv auto versus öåt..ngãrs arriving-il tf9-CBD tnavelled q}r :n cit'ies over"1.2 mjl l'ion; the rema'inder travel led úv'"ròr.-,nãuni of-mass transport (Lee 1942, 311-325).

Aconcernwithpostwanpopuìat.iongrowth,anditsgeneral .imp'lications for urban'izat'ion in the 1950's, stìmulated further interest jty s'ize in the relationship between popu'lat'ion si ze, dens and city (e.g.rad.ius).Forexample,Clark(1951)estab.|jshedaclear and city size with mathematical relationship between population dens'ity variation of data from a large number of cities'indicating an inverse (1964, 1966, 1969) density with distance from the centre. Newling po'rynomia'l to ident'ify modified claf.k,s theory by us.ing a second degree accounts for a centrar anea dens.ity cnater. This in,'in effect, popuìation declines in or near the core in most cities' of its By the 1960's extensive auto usage and the ìmpficat'ions planners and other total cost was beginning to be of concern to urban journey-to.work jncreased unban poìicy makers, aS auto dependency for 'incneasi ng to 60 sharply. For examp'le, one est'imate showed chi cago 1 ì ng by f oot (10 percent auto dependency , w'ith the rema'inder trave'l (10 pencent)' percent), bus (10 percent), rail (10 per"cent) and taxis that Th'is study by The Kipiinger Magazine suggested

'in the Conve rt i n g two out of three car ridens [commuters would neduce 60% gt'ouP I uacf to bus ancl train travel "' Chi cagoan i'"äð**uiiñô nili uv 25% and.free $205'000'000 'lY (Changìng Times' an nual io.-ó[r.rà. rínds of ipending May 1961, 88) . -70-

In the late 1960's, a number of planning and urban design concepts which had been articulated oven that decade, began receivìng greater attentjon in urban des'ign and city planning litenature. Th'is 'incneased j nterest reflected a number of uni versal concerns, j ncl ud'ing scarc.ity of land for urban development in some unban regions, the need to design bu'i1d'ings and cities in adverse cl'imates, and an increased concern with pnoblems of resource efficiency in urban development. Designers such as Tange (Boyd 1962) and Ful'ler (McHale 1962) suggested rel ati vely compact, geometri cal ly s'imp'le, urban prototypes. 0thers, íncluding architects, planners, and unban designers, such as Aalto (Fleig 1963), Alexander (1971), Andrews (Jackson 1981), Erskine (1961; Egelius i977), and McHarg (1971) indjcated a concern with more complex environmentalìy nesponsive urban design. By the early 1970'S, a numben of simple parad'igms of urban compactness had emenged" One of these, a s.imp'l.ist.ic hypothetical model (Dantzig and Saaty 1973) had origins wh'ich were closer to systems analysis, operations research, and industrial enginee¡ing than to more traditional approaches of arch'itecture, cìty pl ann'ing, and urban desì gn.

Concerned wìth wasted environmental nesources and t'ime, Dantzig and Saaty (1973) 'illustrated their concept of The act Ci in a simple diagrammatic fashion. Us'ing the Los Ange'les conurbat'ion as an example, they reduced 373 squane kìlometres of subunban california sprawl to 23 square kilometres of efficient'ly stacked three dimensional space. They considened density to be "a factor which could be used to est'imate the ava'ilability of three dìmensional space" (p'28) ' Therefore, density should be expressed not in pensons per square f orm j n k.i I ometre, but 'in persons pef' cub'ic k'il ometre. In the extneme whjch they presente'd 'it, thei n compact city mode'l began w'ith the principle that:

"... to keeP PoPulation densities low, conserve land use, and avoid unban s prawl, man must move to ef fect'ivelY uti I i ze th e verti cal dimension. ( P,29) 7r-

Based on a population dens'ity in the order of 5400 persons per square kilometre fon each ìayer, a household dens'ity in the onder of 2100 dwellings per square kilometre repnesented mone than 20 dwell'ings per" hectare for each ìayer on "tray" of development. Howeven, th'is density calculation was based on computing popu'lation and residentìal bu'ildìng density for only one ìayer of an eight'layer city. Consequently, density calculations based on the numben of households above a gr^ound pìane resulted in an effective residential density figure eight times the resident'ial density for a sì ng'le ìayer, on 43,200 pensons per squane k'ilometre (Dantzig and Saaty 1973).

The genera'l p'lan for Dantzig and Saaty's compact city model assumed an initial popuìation of 250,000 in a circle 5.7 squane kilometres in base area, with a radius of 1348 metnes, and a low flat s'ilhouette (an ups'ide down cake pan with sloped on battened s'ides)." It was also designed to gr^ow to an area of 22.5 square kìlometres, ultimately contajning a populatìon of two mill'ion (Appendix I).

t..l'ithin its tnuncated cone shape, the compact c'ity's eight platforms, 9.2 metres apart, rose to over 73 metnes. Constructed on each of these trays wene all of the requined build'ings and functions of a typicaì city with the exception of deleterious land uses, such as steel mills, foundries, refinenies, and airports. These wene to be located well outs'ide the main urban volume. Atop the uppermost pìatform was "a landscaped centna'l park plateau - a man-made mesa ,..73 metres above the surrounding countnyside." One-half of all housing un'its were built on the outside periphery of this megastructure'in the form of terraced apartments (with an outside view). Housjng at the upper level, and just below the roof, rece'ived natunal light through vanìous deep jn 1 ìght wel ls. An additional 80,000 hìghrise apantments wer^e built a ring surnoundjng the cjrcular central roof top park. Various "lots" for offi ces, manufacturì ng pl ants, stores, schoo'l s, ci nemas, auditoria, and a stadium were accommodated wjthjn the depths of the compìex. The -72- 1it space' much of interior was env'isaged as an all weather artifìcia'lìy to the outdoors fr"om the it available 24 hours per day. Although access 'interjor units' it was intenior was not d'i nect'ly available to many assumedtorequireonlyafewminuteswa]k.Cinculationinthree electric vehicle or on dimensions was facilitated either by e'levator, footandmin.imumtravelt.imeandtnanspontenergyconsumptionwere most urban destinations assumecl. Thus, work trips into the core and to wenebywalking,cycl.ing,electriccars,movingbe.|ts,elevatons' escalatorsorotherse]f-activatedtranslationaldevices.

times its he'ight' The radius of the city, approximately eighteen time between the centne of was selected to achieve min'imum total travel greatest extremity at the the hìghest urban elevation or level and the baseofthecìtycirc]e,includingbothhonizontalandvertìcal short because the circulation. Most travel distances were relatively diameterofthisurbanmode]wasonlyslight.lylargerthanl.33 ki]ometres.(Thiscomparesw.ithI^lìnn.ipeg,sdiameterof22.4 k.ilometres).Evenatahypothet.icalmaxjmumpopulationoftwomilljon' c'ity model was only 910 the unban radìus of Dantzig and saaty's compact walk (Appendix 1' Plate 2)' metnes from the centre - a 15-20 minute

TheDantzigandSaatymodel,wh.ichrepresentedahypothetjcal which was capable of urban,,megastnucture" - a Iarge scaìe buiIt-form suggested a useful panad'igm for a expand'ing outward in succesgive nings' dense,compactcitytoaccommodatearangeofpopulatìonfrom250,000to of j ntri ns'ic probl ems 2,000,000. However, 'it al so nef lected a number ' of the c'ity .includìng an'inflexibì'lity to change, particu'lar1y for" areas 'i servi ces presented probl ems n where .interdependent structures and that mone than 50 percent of des.ign and construction, and an assumption reside with'in a compact' totally an urban populat'ion would be wi1ìing to enclosed, ai r-conditioned urban megastructure'

an r"ePort known as The In 19 68, as an eI abonation of earlier two (Ac nes Research and Planning 1967) Canada North Deve'loPme n t Corridor t he 'i ni t'i al des i gn concePt were members of the team wh'ich developed -73- asked to prepare illustrative unban design materials for a subsequent film entitled Leave This Not To Cain (Reason Associates 1968). Influenced by the work of architects such as Enskine (1961), Andnews (1964) and Pelli et al (1966), and by the potentials of condominjum legi slation, then be'ing introduced in Canada, urban design concepts were evolved for a prototypical city which reflected lange scale environmenta'ìly responsive urban development in a northern climate. The resultant sketch designs (Figune 9) and a three-dimens'iona'l model , shown in the f ilm, highì ighted some bas'ic princip'les of city-build'ing in such an environment.

The prototypical cìty concept comprised a series of continuous building clusters linked in an east-west direction. Along th'is major ax'is, concentnatjons of urban development rad'iated from points of major ve'rtieal and horizontal interchange. Resident'ial units were located within and between these fingen-like pnoiections, as well as along the south-face of the major spine. Work activity functions and some institutions wene located on the nonth side of the complex with retail commencial and major indoor spaces, such as arenas and auditoria, situated with'in the interior. d

[,/'ith corrìdon distances between major urban clusters relative'ly short (e.g. less than 0.5 km) , 'interna'l tnansport (e.g. wal king and cycling) was assumed to be augmentabìe by a variety of automated, electricalìy-powered mob'i'lity systems. Convent'ional transport modes were assumed to be requined primarily to facilitate'interurban and interregionaì transport. Deleterious, on nuisance producing, land uses wene assumed to be situated some distance fr^om the main unban structure. Initìa'l1y designed to serve a modest population base (e.g. 25,000 dwellings), the complex was capab'le of addjtion, both ho¡izonta]1y and vertically, ultimateìy accommodatìng a population of excess of 100,000. Th'is panadigm for a hìgh density northern development (F'igure 9) provided the basis for the modified compact city moclel djscussed in sect'ions 3.2.2 and 4.4.2, and jl lustrated 'in Appendìx I, Plate 3. - 74 - REGION' PROTOTYPE FOR A NORTHERN FIGURE 9: A NOTIONAL LINEAR CITY

Õo ô Se oorot i on oooo ô ooo o o ce fl+ outside spoce

Compression cell+ oulside sPoce

Compression cell + inside spoce + outside spoce

Differentiolion of inside spoce (necessory to ôt" ô moke ìl oltroclive ) wind Differentioiion + response to clímoTic condilions

Residentiol Off ice

€Þ lÏffil lnstitutiono I I Commerciol lnduslrio I

J-r--t -H

Associates SOURCE: Sketches for a Reason

ïi;;_*ty:Reoenstrel Ï lll'olilano l? iiåh,,^üiiÏ. oeiì gners, 1968. -75

2.3,6 Alternatìve Enengy Futunes - A Bas'is For Devel opment 0f Scenarios

As with most controversjal aneas of pub'ìic po'licy, there are a number of different views about world energy futures, panticular'ly with respect to energy altennatjves'in nonthenn industrialized negions. These range from an absolute confidence and belief ìn man's abilìty to find technical solut'ions to all energy pr^oblems; to more caut'ious and less optimistic perspectives about futune enengy choices which assume imperfect or ìnadequate knowìedge; finally, to more pessimist'ic views, which argue that enengy and othen nesources are limited and must be used j udi ci ousì y.

2.3.6.I The Techno]ogical Approach - Imp'ljc'it in this appnoach js a v'iew that i ndustr.i al man has techn'ica'l 1y ach'ieved the means to obtai n or produce, on a sustajned basis, all of the energy requirements necessary to maì ntain a hi ghly j ndustrj al'i zed economj c state. Invest enough nesources 'into a problem anea, with an unfai1ing bel'ief in the abi1ity of science and technology to produce results, and the necessary solut'ions w'ill be forthcoming. E'ither the basjc technoìogy aì neady exjsts (e.g. fission), or it can be developedo gìven enough time and ê nesources (e.g. fusion).

One exponent of this confident view of futu¡e technological poss'i bi I ities concluded that:

The gneat options in matters of energy jn the 21st century have been well delineated. Breeding and hydrogän wiì'l alIow establishment of an "alI nuclean" sôlution for the year- 2000, that wiìl satisfactorily solve nesource and independence pnoblems and deliver us fnom the yoke of fossìl fuels. In case of a fajIure of deìay, the long-term solutions such as solar energy' geotirérmal eneigy and especially nuc'lear fusion, should Ée ready to comé to our rescue fon an almost unlimited time if we make a suff icjent effor"t (Gibnat 1976, 41)' -76-

However,Gibratofferedacaveattohisposjtjon,notingthat .,the diffìcu]ties that have to be overcome are not sma]]...(p.41)

A second vìew of energy 2.3.6.2 The Unpredictable Future Approach - predict energy reserves or futures.is that it.is extremely d'ifficult to futune ener$/ prospects are nesounces in a rel'iable way' consequently v'i ng at future poì i cì es wide uncertai n and i ndef i nite. In arri ' flexibility,diversityandgreatercomplex,ityofchoìcesofenergy supplìesandtechno]ogiesarenecessany.Thisviewwasreflectedby Kenward(1976)who,afteranextensiverev'iewofworldenengy that: technolog'ies and forecasts' concluded ìs shape of the wor'ld's energy system The future altennat'ive anvbody's guess - there ane as many demand as thene are iiåiä.üiånË"ãi".n";it :up?lv 119 make real 1y energy pundits...- ii is' ìmþossible to forecasts iñut-tafã in all of the variables accunate vagaries. of human and no forecast'äán-.ãp" with the tne-iäniibi. forecaster can do is produce nature. All energy cunves w'i I I broad bands wi tni;";ñìãn-il't'mosi f utu re forecasts confidently pred'ict that probably falI. upward growth as energy consumptioñ"'iii ãontinue its growth';;ttìnues; but few observers of the economic tnttsv prof l'isacv of enersy scene t tãtúT ir't "-pë9!. Even I:before the 1973/74 o'il the 1950,s and iéoO'.. energy busjness more p..áãptive.observers of the crjsìs, wou]d change for the were v\larning th;;"[ñ;'iiiuation worse.(P.215)

1n Innev.iew,ingresearchancldeveloprnentjnvestmentstrateg.ies ,ta GreatBritajn,Kenwardcautiousìysuggestedthat"flex'ib'ilìty"js through appnopriate use of fuel s des'irable commodity" as is "d'iversity" and techno'logY:

assumpt'ion that be better off work'ing under the We would 'in the f uture' If things w'il1 t. *ã"-totpiicatã¿ to ór-fusion or even-iou...r solar energy pnoves nuclear f.iss.ion wi th no I i mj'ts be the most versãti r. of energy then adapt.to meet-the on its application, î9 99n if we. put aìl rt wiïi r,ä-intin'itelv-Àãrder j siruarion. 'úàirtt di scover that there s a our eggs i n one on'ly to h;ì.-í; the bottom' (P'218) -77 -

2.3.6.3 The Modified Technological Solut'ion - A th'ird v'iew is that there will be insufficient fossil fuels to meet clemand in 20-30 years, assuming hìstoric rates of consumption (Hubber^t 1969; Canada NEB 1981; Wil lson 1981). Consequentlyn eithen a nuclear future, which includes fast bneeder neactot's or thorium cycles (Thinning 1968; Gibrat 1976; Smil L974; Jovanovich 1986), or a non-nuclear future heav'ily dependent upon conservation and nenewables is a possible alternative (Kneìman I975; MacNabb 19761' Staubaugh and Yer"gin 1983). Some advocates of these v'iews have also suggested that it might be many years jnto the 21st Centuny before a hydrogen economy and/or fusion technology can be put ìn place (G'ibrat I976). 0thers have questjoned whether alternat'ives such as nuclear futures should be jmplemented (Kneìman 1976; Rifkj n 1981). St'il I others have ra j sed questions about the I ead t jme requ'i rements to introduce new energy technoìogìes (Foley 1976; Bupp 1981). For exarnple, Foìey and Nassjm (1976) pointed out that:

The devel opment of subst'itute enengy r"esources i s which possjble introduce limited by the rate at'lange it is to new techno'logies on a scale. Science and technology can ach'ieve spectacular results in a short t jme. . . , (but ) sol v'ing the probì em of bui I di ng the prototype 'is onìy the finst step. The Manhattan Project produced the Bomb, but thirty years wor^k and bjllions of dollars and pounds have not resulted ìn a nuclear power 'industry capab'le of replacing more than a minute proportion of the enengy suppìied by fossiI fuels.(p.255)

Analysts concerned with I ead t jme have a'lso suggested that unti I new technologies are in pìace, long lead times w'ill be requined, and other. trans'it'ional technologies and strateg'ies will have to i¡e uti I i zed. These i ncl ude measures to reduce or otherw'i se constnai n energy demand and to increase major investments in nenewables, such as solar ancl energy consenvation (Ganden and Belajre 1978; Knelman 1976; l^lillson 1980; Stobaugh and Yerg'in 1983). -78-

2.3.6.4 A Sustainable Enengy Futune - A founth view argues that for many industrial states (including Canada) conventionally projected I evel s of energy consumpt'ion ar e simp'ly unstabì e and unsustai nabl e , given the nature of world energy nesounces (Thompson and Boenma I979; Lovins 1981.) Consequently, in a'll economic sectot's levels of energy consumpt'ion should be substantiaì1y reduced thnough increases jn the end-use effic'iency of energy (Georgescu-Roegen l97l; Berry and Fulton-Fels 1973; Commoner t977).

Advocates of this view have argued that the allocatjon of energy nesounces should be brought about through the appìication of ther.modynamic princìpìes, rathen than waiting for market response to the economics of short term pricìng. For examp'le, Berry and Fulton Fels have suggested that:

If the economists in the market place were to determine their shortages by'looking funthelinto the future these estìmates would come closer to the estjmates made by thei r col ì eagues, the thermodynam'i ci sts For the ultimate long range planner, economic and thermodynamic analyses ane equivalent. (p.60)

Georgescu-Roegen, anguing that conventional economjcs fails to capture the full cost of energy to both present and future generat'ions, has suggested that conventional econom'ics depends too heaviìy on l'imited, non-renewable enengy resounces (capìta'l stock) instead of natuna'l energy flows ('interest on capital). He has arguecl further that scarce resources such as non-renewable energy are in a concentnated' high'ly orderecl, low state of entr"opy and the mannerin which they are used'in an energy-intensjve economy results in over'ly rapid diffusion to a h'igh state of entropy without taking advantage of much of thejr" immediate potentials (e.g. enengy cascading). Thjs waste in enengy use and production fundamental'ly constnains economic gnowth and contributes to pnematuneìy nap'id depìetìon of resources. Extending the argument further, Commoner has suggested an appnoximate djmension of th'is waste: -79- ...about 85 pencent of the wonk available in the enengy presentìy consumed is not applied to the wonk-r'equíning tasks of the production system - it is wasted.(p.203)

Lov'ins (1979) has art'icul ated the thermodynami c vi ew ì n terms of pnactical poìicy pnescriptions, argu'ing fon "soft energy paths" as a basis fon future approaches to energy use. For Canacla, he has suggested such an energy future ìmp'lies a much lower ovenall demand fon energy by 2025, and the development of a numben of intermediate "bridging technologies" to effect a transit'ion between non-nenewable and renewable energy futu res .

Aìthough thene are clear diffenences of views with respect to future energy prospects, i ncl udi ng po1 i ci es tool s, and appnopri ate technologies, most obse¡'vens appean to agnee that the era of dependence upon unlimited non-renewable nesour"ces, in particular foss'il fuels, is rap'idìy dr^awing to a close and sustajnable alternatjves have to be found. These different v'iews about alternatjve energy futures set the stage fon the applicat'ion of scenanjos as a device to sjmulate time- sensit'ive urban energy condit'ions.

2.3.7 Some Relevant Scenanios in the Literature

In the last section of this chapter, litenatune sources nepresentative of three distinctìy d'ifferent perspectives about energy suppìy and demand and energy sustai nab'i'l i ty are revi ewed. Each perspective impljes different assumptions about how energy might be suppljed and consumed. W'ith the exception of "soft energy path" analyses, which "backcast" f¡om the future using regional data, most conventjonal penspectives depend on national aggregate data, adiusted and projected fonward in time over a long perìod (e.g.2025). Scenarios range from assumptìons of modest changes in futune enengy policy to assumptìons about more substantial intenventjons designed to'influence future consumpt'ion and effic'iency'in the enengy sector. Literature sources whjch correspond with these three scenarjos include: (1) The -80-

H'istonic Trends Scenario (Gander and Bellaire 1978) i Q) The Modjfjed Historic Trends Scenario (t^Iillson 1980); and (3) The Soft Energy Path Scenario (Lovins 1979; Brooks and Casey 1979; Penn'ing and McCall 1979; Ross 1979; Thompson and Boerma 1979).

2.3.7.I Hjstonic Tnends - A Lonq Term Enerq.y Assessment P rogram (LEAP), a 1978 study prepared by the tnergy Mines and Resources Canada Energy Review Group, nepresented "a singìe view of an uncertain 50 year" period (1975 - 2025)" and resulted in what the Fedenal Energy Ministen at the time refenred to as "a credible base case scenario" (Gander and Belaire 1978: v). Drawing upon a wide range of major Canadian and'international ener'!¡y reseanch studi es and analyses, the report arni ved at a si ng'le composite view of energy potentials and pofic'ies whjch had developed to that time. Consequently, 'in a broad sense, LEAP repnesented.an "h'istoric trends" scenario, relying heaviìy on market fonces and the private sector:

...Although government participation wil I incnease, market forces ... will be nel'ied upon in large part to alter patterns of demand, a nd to bring fonward the nequisite enengy nesounces an d allocate them according to the prefenences of Canad ia ns... At the same time, imagi nat j ve govennment intervent'ion wi I I be nequ'i red (Gander and Belaire 1978, 2 1)

The LEAP study had four majon components. The fi nst part of the report dealt w'ith transitions to a new ena and meeting urgent'long-term needs. The second dealt with magnitudes of change and 'included: world energy futures , Canada's i nternal energy rel ationshj p, energy requinements, enengy availability, achieving a sustainable energy jn balance, and .provincial energy balances a natjonal context. The th'ird dealt with the adjustment process, 'including enengy prices and pr''icing, finance, ownership and control , research development, demonstrat'ion and deployment and other adjustment factors. The founth par"t provìded conclusions and necommendations, p'lacing majon emphasis on -81 -

suppìy' The study proposed to ì nterfuel subst'itut'ion and indjgenous ,,...tf.ansformenengyendusestoconformtotheenergywecanhavefnom achieve this through basic programs Canadian sounces..." (p"261), and to enef'gy' consumer affect.ing space heating, transpontat'ion,'industrial products and communi tY des'ign '

Notw.ithstandjngthecomprehensiveapproachwh.ichthestudytook perspect'ive", it included .in cove.ing the ent.ine sector from "a single limitations'in the following areas:

(1)AlthoughtheLEAPreportrepeatedlymentionedtheimportanceof indicator of energy improvìng energy efficiency' an important effic.iency'theratioofsecondarytopr.imar^yenergywasprojectedto changevery.littlebetweenlgT5arrd2025(e.g.fnomarat.ioof5.3:8.4 toarat'ioof13.1:2I,respectively).Thissuggestedthatunderth.is and energy effic'iency would not base case scenario, enengy conservation rece,ives.ignificantattention,partjcular.lywithrespecttoenengy pnoduct'ion.

(2)LEAP.streatmentofthequestionofoi]supplyanddemandtothe in pnoiections and year 2000 and beyond, highlighted'inconsistenc'ies agencìes' For example' a'lthough expectations wjthin and between Federal LEAP suggested that:

princ'ipaì gbiggtlut neduce canada's The lupplY l:,to.i g'i b'l e amounts by the dependency on i mpo r"teã- äi t to negì oìl wiil-continue to be perhaps the v.u. äõöo', "' energy suppìy at second ìangest .o*ponå|1t-ói cana¿a.s I east-unti í 2025'(p'56)

supply targets which would: The study a.lso suggested indicative

Increasebyone.half-bytheyear-?900,the-product.ionofoil.in Canada,princ.ipaìlyfrämheavyoj]s.aáooilsands,mak.ing and of .åiî'ili;;;ì'suppi iãt-t.o* new cli scoveries appropri are use maintain that h'ighen enhanced recove.v *.îñåã;; i. at'leait level-ói ProOuctìon lo 2025' -82-

By 2000, reduce oìl imports to not more than 10 or 15 percent oi totuí oil requinements (less than 400,000 bbls per day ão*pured with over 600,000 bbls-qqr day^\l +97!); reduce ojl i*pãitt further^ from the year 2000 to 2025'(p'107)

Although the LEAP report acknowledged that "achieving necessary levels of performance for each resource... rested on the fine edge of the barely possible" (p.109), Nat'ional Enengy Board neports, on whìch j LEAP was based, 'in part, hi ghl i ghted major d'ifferences n est'imates among Federal agenc'ies, f or examp'le:

In NEB's estimate, impor^ts could be cal led upon to irppfy more than SO pãrcent of Canada's oil requìrements anä' pär.haps as much äs 85 percent by 1995. The domestic prò¿üction of oil both convent'ional and fnom the heavy bil depos'its and oil sands miglt be just over one milljon barrels per day in 19gs compared *il!'t-a demand 2.5 m'il I'ion bbl s/dqy for" ojl at that time ol nearìy 'in lqóre than b0 percent of the oil production 1995 woulcl (Ganden Cóme f rom the oil sands and heavy oi'l clepos1ts and Belaire 1978, 109-110).

0n the question of o'il self-sufficiency, without documenting how it pnoposed to achieve dnastic reduct'ions in oil consumption' LEAP's authors argued that:

'in If canadian production of o'il 2000 were to achieve the 2.5 millìon barrel per day (level ) "' it-would no ióñgã. mãet the requi rements êven of Western Canada and gntanio unless sig'ìiticant substitut'ions away from oil à.ã-ruã.. ft o1l"constituted onìy 30 pencent of total pr"ìmary energy needs by 2000-(as ca'lled for in thi s present lHÁÞ:" assesõment ) i nsiead 9f a6 percent 9: at ' ðanadían o'il pr.oduction could serve the o'iì requì nements of al ì r'eg'ions. (P.178)

the However, eìsewhene the LEAP report raised a quest'ion about supp'ìy r.ealism of ìts position when.it proposed to achieve its o'il objectives for 2000-2025 by comp'letìng more o'il sands surface min'ing projects (by the year 2000) than some environmental impact studies 83 suggested coul d be real j stj cal ìy buì lt withi n the env'i ronmental I'imitations of Alberta's tar sands. Gander and Belaire necognized the diff iculty of this posit'ion as they noted that:

These oil targets are extremely djffieult to ach'ieve even if agneement can be reached on thein acceptance. Fon examp'le, a new oil sands p'lant (surface or in-sìtu) would have to come into production every 18 months or 2 years compared with 5 or 6 yeans at present - roughìy a 3 fold acceleration jn prepanation, financing and instal lation. Provincial acceptance, env'i ronmental impacts, financing, manpower, equipment, materials, ìnfrastructune and serv'ice nequi rements should therefone be approached on that basis.(p.271)

In its analysis, the LEAP repont did not specificalìy examìne the levels of effic'iency at wh'ich synthet'ic oil and/or other expensìve non-renewables mìght be consumed, whether energy quaìity and quantity wene closely matched to ener"gy demands, nor did ìt cons'iden long-term effects of substantial impnovements jn energy efficiency and incneased energy conservation as a strategy in achìeving a sustajnable balance of enengy from within Canada.

Despite these limitations, LEAP provided a useful base case for an "h'istoric trends" scenarjo (or in enengy conservat'ion terms a status quo scenario) for at least one poss'ible future enengy altennative. As such, it pnovided:

(1) a possìble upper limit for nat'ional enengy demand by the year 2025 of approximately 21 exajoules;

(2) a basic set of numbens from which to extrapolate energy consumption to regi ona'l , or I ocal I evel s ; and

( 3) a usef ul descri pti on of an energy context f nom wh j ch cornparab'l e numbers on negional enengy might be generated. -84-

2.3.7.2 A Modified Trends Approach - In a panoram'ic view of the energy crisis, entitìed The Ener:qv Squeeze -- Canadì an Pol j ci es For Su rv'i val , l,lillson (1980) p'laced strong emphasis on the question of gas and oì1 supply over the period 1980-2025, while also exam'ining Canada's position i n regard to cOal , hydro, nucl ean, So]an, and other renewables. Th'is ana'lysis drew upon many of the same data sources used in LEAP, and a'lso made generous use of the Same nesearch, tableS, and graphìes. HOweVen, this energy policy crit'ique, not only reviewed the LEAP alternative, and the sources upon wh'ich it was based, but also deveìoped a substantive altennative to the National Enengy Program.

Although, for pur.poses of anaìysis, Willson indicated that he was prepared to adopt LEAP energy demand pnoiections from 1975-2025 as a base case (e.g.8.4 exajoules primary in 1975 and 21 exaioules prirnany in 2025),'he acknowledged that "Adoption does not necessarily mean advocacy." Consequently, he was pnepared to accept a lower figure for primary eneÌ"gy based on substantial improvements in enengy conservation and efficiency. Unlike LEAP, which jdentified and addressed a single future penspective, W'il lson jdent'ified sevenal futune alternatives, including some suggested by consenver society or soft enengy path advocates who presented sharply divergent perspectives of total 'included (nat.ional ) enengy demand f or 2025. These uppen level maxjmums of 13.7 exaioules or a L percent growth nate assumed by Brooks et al (Lg77), and 5.4 exaioules by Lovjns (1976), who concluded that "g'iven a 'in serious commitment to conservation Canada, energy demand need not ì ncrease si gni fi cantly at al I " ( Wi I I son 1980, 18)'

These djffenent perspectives on Canada's total enengy demand to 'in 2025 also reflected signif icant d'iffenences in expectation of shifts Gander and demand fnom non-renewables to nenewables. For example, while Bella'ire (p.274) assumed that onl y 2.I exajoules on 10 percent of 'in pnimary enengy demand would be satisfìed by renewables 2025' -85- (Table |¡J.illson consjdened a range of figures fnom 2.L'12.6 exajoules 4)'

TABLE 4:

ol ESTIMATIS OF TNERGY DEMAND FROM RTNEWABLES BY 2025 EXAJOULTS

10 2.L LEAP 4.7 Sc'ience Counc'il 20 25 5.3 Amory Lovì ns 60 r?.6 Rob'inson et al (Work group on Energy Policy)

Ene ueeze: Canadi an Sou rce: Adapted f rom B.F. W'il lson. 1980' The Pol i c'ie s for Survival. Toronto: Lorimer an o.:

w.illson also djffened from the LEAP analys'is on the energy supply sìde. For example, with respect to LEAP assumpt'ions and conclusions' he identìfied the folIowing concerns:

more rap'idly than (1) Convent j onal oi I and gas woul d 1i kely be clep'leted the LEAP nePort had acknowìedged'

Canaclaisdependentuponthesefuelsfornearly2/3of the prospects for iiï-ðn..év-iirpplv ...ì'¡butl.'..' 'indeed uããquài."gas àh¿- oil volumes are gìoomy ." ' ðàñäàu faães.large shontages of oil and gas wjthin a very few years uñd othe. ãnergy forms are not unl'imited trends arã all in the wrong clirection.to achieve ... the fon á suff jc.ient and iusta'inable supply ... l'ife ind'ices óii and gas continue to decline, whi'le prices and profits éscalate. (P.68) -86-

(2) At the level of consumption ancl fuel substitut'ion assumed by LEAP' supp'l i es woul d al so r,lli I I son suggested that i ndi genous canad'i an coal be naP'i d'lY deP'l eted .

Canada's recoverable coal neserves ane modest pã.ii àuì arìy compared w'ith those in the U"S' If known recovenable domestic neserves wene developed and utilized to cont;ibute 13 percent of the shane of total fonecast ener"gy demancl, they would be exhausted by 2025. ( p .132)

(3) Nuclean fuel assumptions jn LEAP wene quest'ionable s'ince'ind'igenous dep'leted befone canad'ian uran'ium supplìes would be substantjal'ly 2025,andsubstant.ialaclditionstoex.ist.ingreserveswereunlikely.

would be (4) Unlike LEAP, which acknowledged that onl y 2,I exajou]es lÚillson saw recovenable from renewables (other than hydro) by 2025, greater potentìa1 in energy consenvation and incneased energy possi bì I i t'i es f or ef f j cì ency. He al so observed a w'ide nange of energy conservation:

Estimating potentia'l fon nenewables presents the same .ó.t ór pÉo'ul em as estimati ng potent'ial f or energy ããni..uuiìõn. A w'ide nange appears to be poss'ibl e; jmìts, thä pótentíal däpends on what we want the w'ith'in I 'in to öoiäniial to úe. Tilis not as true the short ñããiu* term where phys'ica1 and other" constra'ints of gnj f i cant , -ãrì ,g to a I a.gÀ i:.ä.wabl e component are s'i ä;'jl'ii tor thã longer range. It appears.we can choose or-relatìveiy high cont¡ibution iã f'ãu.-u ielatiu.iv'lo" that from renewables ìÀ in" longer term "' he concluded ... the nole of nenewables must be an integra'l part of a fullassessmentofhowtoachjeveasustajnableenergy future.(P.85)

that: î^lith r^espect to energy conservation' he necommended

should be encouraged and demand for scance Conservatjon them energy resou...r-rñould be con[ro]ìed by allocat'ing to priority ut.t ãnã"úv ãõ'ituble ratioñìng'(p'13a) -87 -

In addjtion, l.lillson's necommendat'ions 'included the following poìnts:

Policies should be deve'loped jmmed'iateìy to ensure adequate supplies of energy for Canadians in the med'ium term and to allow ... trans'ition from dependence on non-nenewable sounces 'i to nenewabl es n the 1 onge r te rm. All enengy nesource pìannìng and development should be p'laced under Federal jurisdiction. To this end, a National Ener"gy Corponation or similar government authority.". should be constjtuted ... (through which) governments and the pr^ivate sector could coordjnate both the supply and demand for enengy. Development and operating contr"ol would be delegated to pnov'inc'ial authorities; resounce owners would neceive appropniate royalties; and environmental and socio-economic concerns would acconded proper consideration. (p.i34)

Rather than Gander and BellajÍ'e's market oriented approach, l,I'illson suggested:

a cost based appnoach to energy pricing with costs to include neasonable royaìties on the production of non-nenewable resounces and an appnopniate return on 'investor-contributed capita'l . (p.106) He also indicated that

nationing of petro'leum might seem to be the most satisfactony method of handìing pnoblems of high oil and gas demand in the peniod of transition to a sustajnable enengy base. (p.22)

Because both Ganden and Belaire, and Willson cons'idered Canad'ian enengy pnob'lems essential'ly f r"om a national level and dealt with enengy data in aggr^egate, they provìded neither reg'ional nor local (municipal ) energy analyses nor analysjs of their imp'lications. Nonetheless, they were useful perspectives from which to develop empirical urban scenan'ios

(e.g. h j stoni c tnends or modi f i ed tr"ends ) . -88-

paths (sEPs) 2.3.7.3 Soft Energy Paths - The literature on soft-enengy in dealt wìth energy scenarios which assumed significant reductions 'improvements 'in end-use demand for new energy suppl'ies through sectoral strategies"' and energy efficl'ency, time]y applìcation of "transitional As such thermodynamically (or qualitat'ive1y) matched energy sources' anticjpated sEPs provjded a djfferent scale from which to considen (1) they wene closer to ìmpnovements in unban energy penformance because and (2) they depended on an empìrical level of urban and regionaì policy (i they ,,backcasting" from technically reaìistic future potentials 'e' present), nather than wonked backward in time fnom the future to the growth conditions and/or depending on fonecast'ing from present econom'ic past expectations of growth in energy demand'

In 0ctober lgTS, a Soft Energy Paih wonkshop at Tnent unìvens'ity j from across brought together envi ronmental sts and energy researchers enengy path Canada. The workshops objective was to organ'ize soft ana.lyses.ineachoftheCanad.ianprovincesandtheNorthwest effot"t gave ¡ise Terrìtories. In the case of the Praì r'ie provinces' the These studi es provi de the to a number of provi nc'i al ly based studi es. literature sources 'in this sub-section'

BrieflyrecountingcurrentenergJ/conditionsinCanadaandthe ent'itled "soft u.s., in a keynote presentat'ion to the Trent workshop, recently a1l units paths versus Hard paths,,, Lovins angued, until veny the same without of energy demanded were treated as essential]y "' the quaìity of energy consjder.ing the structune of energy demands or producer.s (usual ly l arge suppl.ied. If more energy was requì ned, energy more' rarely centnaljzed electr.icity author.ities) simply built consideringif,orhow,ex.istingenergysuppliesm.ightbeusedmore depìeted effectiveìy and efficiently. As conventional sources became w.ithsupp.lìesincreasinglydependentonmoreexpensiVesources (by at least a (fnontìer, synthet.ic and/or nuclear), costs rose sharpìy demands fon new enef'gy factor of 10 in rnany cases). such large cap'ita] -89-

Suppljes tended to starve other cnitical econom'ic sectors often provoki ng cri ses:

projects Puttì ng b'il 1 i on dol I ar bl ocks of capi tal ìnto that tãke about 10 years to build woul d tend to make inflation worse, unemployment worse be cause of capìtaì stagnat'ion, utility finqlce instable' ancl i ndeed , eve rY power station we build would proba bly I ose the big 'in ecónbmy d'i rectìy, or indirectly, th e orden of four thousand net iobs, just by star"v'ing o!her sectors for the cap'ital tñat they need (Lovi ns 197 g, 5).

As an alternative, Lovins called for a soft energy path appnoach, wh.ich had thnee main technical components, these included:

exist'ing (1) Makìng more efficjent use of ava'ilable enengy to extend suppfies.Inthisregard,Lov'ins(1979)estjmated:

we can roughly double effìciency by.the turn of the cãntury anã rôughìy nedouble-(again) over the next quarter centu.y'-.". aÀà st'ill'hãve a ways to go'(p'6)

ogi es These were (2) Obtai nì ng energy 'incneas'ing'ly f rom "soft technol ' " defined as having five specific propert'ies:

.l There are dozens of ki nds (ì ) F.i rst of al , they are di.verse. ' each used to do what it does best' farm' and (j'i) They are renewable, they run on sun' wind' water' forestry wastes - ñot on dep'letable fuels' understandable from the users (.iii\' ' '/ ) They ar.e relativeìy s'imp1e and pôiit or view, uut" ley' can still be technically very soPhi st i cated (iv)Theysupplyenergyjntherightscaleandtherightqual'ityfor oui range of end-use needs js which 35% (v) And, in'the U.S. the end use structure 58% heat of jsheatbelowl00ocandmostoftherestnotfarabove.In fact half of all the end use'is heat below 6000c and with'in the -90- ('' stri buti on i n Canada i s present conven'i ent sol ar range 'di js anothe r 34% in the U'S" and essentia'lly the same)' There l'iquid fue'ls for tnansport 32%... in Canada which is portable andthepremiumend-usesthatneedelectric.ity...areonly(Lovins much as 10% in Canada aUout 8%. Th'is m'ight be' as 1979, 7).

(3)Intelligentlyusingfossilfuelsfortransitiona]techno]og.iesand increasingtheefficiencyofenergygeneration.Asanexampleofthjs development of fluidized last po.int, Lovins cited the case of commencial bedconverters.inSwedjshpowerplantswhichweref.iredbyawiderange offuels,andadistrictheatinggridconnectedtosuchplants,which wasalsodesignedtobeeventua].lyconvertedtoaccommodateseasona] (Lovins 1979' 8)' stonage of solar energy

Inthejrpaperentit]ed,,,AGuidetoSoftEner^gyStud.ies,.,Brooks andCasey(1979)setoutabasicguìdetosoftenergystudiesasan initjalfnameworkinsettingoutgoa'ls'Princ'iples'andmethodsfor cannyìngoutenengyana.lysesonaprovincebyprovincebas.is.Thepaper wasd.ivjdedintothreechapters.Thefirstdescr.ibedihenatureofa softenengypathstudy;thesecondoutlinedmethodsused;andthethird manual for SEP studies' chapter provided a preliminary

an SEP study as: In Chapter 1, the authors defined

the potent'ia'l 'in' a specif ic socìety' ... an analys'is of sti cs lor^ i ci soc'i al anã-ããónomi c characteri ' wi th expl t bounds that can be keep.i.ìtå.ãröv-ããrãn¿r"iiiñin-ih. (on at'least by iänewable'fôrms of energy suppìiËo ny àn env'ironmental forms that are relativeiv"'É9iiql-lfñ polntåï-tiãw'an¿ttiãtive'lyãasilycontrolledfroma politi.år';;j.Thj:*ãun'it''utasoftpathmustfocusuv en"rgv'; tt!919.:^T th' f.irsr on the servi.", ö.äiìOãO techni;ü";";";-andcosls-ofprovidingthoseserv]ces w.ithlessenergy;uno'iñir¿i,nthetãchniquesfonthe costsofusingrenewauiãsouncestosupplywhateverlt'ion most' ioit patlr studi es .n..g.u-ì s-ãemán¿e¿ . în- aooi , wi]läonsiderthetransiiiontrom.ourex.istìnghard enersy paths to the t;ii-ailernative'(p'10) -91 -

Brooks and Casey aìso emphasized the importance of matching energy qua'lity in both supply and demand:

The most impontant r"ule in getting onto a soft enengy path is to use enengy in ways that are suitable for the tasks at hand ... match'ing enengy, qua'lity and quantity to end-use nequi rement s. . . .engi neeri ng and economi cs , not ecology and politìcal science [pnov'ide] ... the most 'immed'iate (though not ultimately the most important) support for soft energy paths oven hard ones.(p.11)

One of the most impor"tant featunes of a soft energy path approach was the concept of working backwands fnom a technica'lly feasjble future state to the pnesent, "to see which technologies have to be deployed, and when," (p.11) and in this way compare the impìications of pol'icies that would lead towards one or more soft energy futures from exjsting policies.

In Chapter 2, the importance of deveìop'ing an organìzing theme for an SEP study was emphasized

... as the base from wh'ich assumptions are derived, data d arranged, methods chosen and analys'is conducted ... (A1so), it is more useful to policy makers if energy paths can be defjned ìn terms of policy options which inconponate the goaìs that govennments normally think of ... In thjs way the conclus'ions will flow not from a few arbitrarily assumed numbens and gr^owth rates, but from the goals and criteria inhenent in one vìew (or a set of views) of what a future society might be or should be. (p.11)

Some of the mone common themes used jn energy studies were also rev'i ewed, ì ncl udi ng:

( i ) Extrapol ati ng the Past 'into the Future: This approach freezes the status quo (e .9. 1973 Federal Report, An Enengy Pol i cy for Canada Phase I ). -92- and po'licy (ii) Extension of Ex'isting Relationships: Econom'ic are giuå."å*ôiì.it ról.i in determ'inins nesults variabtes for canada). (e.g. 1976 Fede.åi"nãôã.r; An rnãrgv stratesy made a nat'ional l¡lhat i f Scenari os: ê.9 . r^lhat i f Canada (ii'i) what canada decided to commitment to r.ãuc.-åñ..gy us.i if one can suffer f rom bei ng maximi ze energy ;ñ!;;i ]"' ' ih'is too indePendent of Lthel Pasr' 'is problem with this scenario ('iv) Maxi mum Eff iciêncy: ... the iöñä.. ilre-äãl iar an¿ t.ime costs of achì evi ns that it înlåvi is useful to see greate r ãriicienãv. still, :"'it òti;Ëi.åÌ't.ärC ef f i c'iency wì I ì I ead where a to gneate. .-n..gy ' postulated as a soc'ial goal for some (v) Energy Targetsl "' (backcast) to year ... ..t.äi.ñä;;"::.-*o.r backwaids furure to meet thi s target' ascenta.in what it ..äui'.ã¿- (ána when) ( P .12)

out, were "pure types"' In These f.ive scena-ios, ìt was pointed real.ityhowever,sEPstud.iescombinee]ementsfromtwoormore scenarjos,taking.intoaccountbasecaseest.imatesaswe]lasconcerns withmax.imiz'ingeff'ic.iencyandachievingacceptableovena.l.ltargets. Theauthorsalsosuggestedthattheconserversocietythemecou]d because it was based on prov'ide a relevant alternative perspect'ive' "' d. in society": "lower rates of material throughput that organi zing ìs essenti al Regard'less of -theme" ' ,it the way in anaìysis begin at^üt" ôéiÃt of end-use - wh.ichå;"ñJi'_åirectii'äoniumeotoheathomesand off.ices,fuelautomooriäs,-ãn¿trucks,powerapp'riances and heaú boilers'(P'12)

t^lhiletheysuggestedcategorizingenergyconsumpt.ionhrysector andbytemperature,theyacknowledgedthatdataandinformatìon state-of-the-ant macle this task diffìcult:

Unfortunately...thusfar,governmentshavehadl.ittle 'in how tnttgy wãs'uðe¿' so data fgt'9nd:1t1" interest l;-;t;iiàigll or'iust breakdowns are tvp'icaí intomp'lete'available in non-available' A1'o' rnäny data are-not tenms';f';ñi;;tuiunitsoîconsumption'butonlvinIn per^iods when terms of monetaty t*på"n¿itutãi "'' -93-

prjces ane constant these can be converted to physica] [..rt fai r'ly eas'ily, but in othen cases great caution must be exe rcì sed. ( P. 13)

In their paper, Brooks and casey also defined and revjewed end-use analys.is, forecast'ing and backcasti ng, and speci al aspects of soft energy path stud'ies, ìncludìng: energy conservatìon, transit'ional technologies, nenewable technologìes, ba'lance of trade in energy' as well as technology choice and tìming. They also b¡iefly considened: appropriate cost analys'is, inc'luding economic efficiency cr"'iteria based es; on d.iscounted cash fl ow-vs-l'ife cycl e costs; subsidi es; external'itì backwards to and the importance of "conservat'ism" (i .e. bend'ing over impl 'i cati ons avoi cl overstat j ng a case ) . Fi nal ly , they deal t wi th , prov.iding a rough fl ow chant of the analytical process in sEP stud'ies'

In the thì rd chapter of thei r paper the authors expancled on thei r 'including concepts. Fon examp'le, they considered several SEP studies ' a (Robinson et al natjonal energy study by the workgroup on Enengy Po]jcy Lg77). This study was notable for its development of an end-use energy not the Iowest' consumptìon scenario wh'ich provided among the Iowest, ìf Thus' the @ estimate of energy demand p¡ojected for canada to that date' wene useful in Brooks and casey work and the sources it clrew upon basìs for sEP comparing sectoral energy demand wh'ich could form a supp'ly options' the scenar.ios for spec'ific canacljan citjes. In terms of fot^ nanual aìso pr.ovided othen useful data sources and technjques developing a realistjc set of future energy suppìy options'

FollowjngthelgTSTnentConferenceonsoftEnergyPaths,thnee the Prai rie technical analysis groups work'ing independently w'ith'in for the'ir nespectì ve pr ovi nces began the task of devel op'ing SEP anaìyses these reg.ions. Folìowìng the outl'ine suggested by Bt"ooks and casey' and groups, wh'ich inclucled Penning and McCall in Manitoba, Thompson adopted approx'imately Boerma .in Saskatchewan, and Ross in Al benta, .identifying and demand fon sjmìlar approaches ìn end-use energy suppìy allenergysectorsintheinrespectivepr.ovìncesoverthesametime -94- perjod(1975-2025).Differentfutureenergyscenarioswerealso assumed..Although,thestud.iespl.ov.idedausefu]overviewanda comparableinterprovincialperspectiveonsoftenergyfuturesinthe.ir regions,thereweresìgnif.icantdjfferencesamongthethreesturljesìn jssues populat'ion data, gnowth rates' and the manner in wh.ich such as with'in each negìon' future scenarios were dealt with. In particular' analyt'ical approaches' data sources, assumptions and, to an extent, differences compficated the task differed among the study teams. These ofdevelop.ingc]earcomparisonsofperformanceinend.useeffjciencyand provincial negìons' energy conservation among the nespect'ive

For example, a'lthough the The first difference was population. Manitobagroupusedas.inglelgTTmediumpopuìatjonpicture(CMHC)asa growthprojectìonassumptìon,theSaskatchewanteamusedhighandlow populationscenariosinattempt.ingtoestablisharangeofljmitsfor energydemand.0ntheotherhand,theA]bertaanalystselectedasingle

highrateofpopulationgrowthsothat.....resultswouldbereadily(AERCB) Resources conservation Board compared wjth the Alberta Enengy Albenta) However' Ross forecast." (i.e. a comparable scenario w'ithin ' work, [the authors] (1979) acknowledged that '.in the Saskatchewan selectedafuturemoreconsistentwiththevaluesunderlyìngasoft energy future.(P'19)

Thesecondd.ifference.inthesestudieswasthefactthata.lldrew'informat'ion data f rom different energy upon energy supply and nelated Sources.Forexample,theManjtobateamdependedheavilyonava.i]able group used 1977 Saskatchewan clata fnom CMHC (1g76-7g), the Saskatchewan EnengyFlowAccounts,whiletheA]bertaana.lysisdependedondatafrom cal gar^y Power consenvati on Board (197s) and the Al ber.ta Energy Resou rces (1977). -95-

A third bas'ic area of difference in the pr"air^ie studies was scenanios. The Manitoba team intnoduced only two scenanios - namely: (I) A "Current Trends" approach based on high (energy) growth assumptions and (lI) A "Conservative" appnoach:

By consenvative we mean that the application of an assumption wiìl have any, or a cornbination of the following effects: (i) 'increase the demand for energy (ii) decrease the supply of nenewable enengy and/on (iii) decrease energy savings beyond levels of othen accepted estimates (Penning and McCall 1979, 27).

Presentation of data by Penning and McCall indjcated that whjle Scenanio II was supposed to nepnesent a more energy consenving option, thein definition was ìnconsistent with thein'intent of achieving a soft enengy path future for Manitoba.

Unlike the Manitoba team, Thompson and Boerma (1979) based their Saskatchewan study on three d'istjnct scenanios about enengy use patterns in 2025:

Scenanio I 'is a "business as usual" scenarjo, with no part'icular improvements'in enengy effic'iency beyond what is common practice today. Growth in enengy demand is based on pub'ljshed projectìons, current pen capita consumpt'ion, or extrapo'lation of past trends.

Scenario II is a "technical fix" scenario in which we apply onìy those enengy technologies wh'ich ane pnoven to be feasib'le today (although not necessarì1y economical today). This scenario does not assume sìgnìfjcant changes in lìfestyles, but rather, shows the extent to whjch we can ìmpnove the efficiency of our use of ene rgy.

Scenanio III assumes the same technjcal impnovements found'in Scenario II, with the additjon of some lifestyle changes. Changes in values are impìied in this scenario. If Scenanio II shows sen'ious appl ications of consenvation, then Scenario III js conservat'ion appl i ed wi th someth'i ng approachi ng reìigious fervor. In th'is scenarì0, there may be some curtailment or "goìng without" although this'is assumecl to be voluntary and a nesult of changed values.(p.38) -96-

by Ross (1979) The approach to alternat'ive scenarios for Albenta be comparable with was less clean. A'lthough data were assembled to underly'ing AERCB AERCB's (high growth) scenario, the assumptìons between projections were not macle exp'lic'it. As a nesult, comparison was difficult' cunnent trends and energy conserving alternatives product from In retrospect, decljnes in Albenta's gnoss provincjal of the Ross 1981-85, ca]l ìnto question the high gnowth assumptìons ana'lysi s.

aggnegate (pnovincial) Because alI of the sEP stud'ies depended on or urban sub-areas' data and were not broken down by specìfic cities dataclen.ivedfromtheseanaìyseshadtobeconsider.edwithcare. jn population gnowth Nevertheless, allow'ing for dìfferences data Þase' performance of the thr"ee pra'ir"ie assumptions, and scenarios, the enengy provides a useful provìnces as repnesented'in these limited studies in sectoral efficiency source for comparìng 'imp'lications of improvements sub-regions of the Interior and energy conservation within prov'incial Pl a'i ns.

2.4 SUMMARY

'i ncl uded: ( 1) a The three pa nts wh'i ch compt^i sed th'is chapten energy conservat'ion in rev.iew of aspects of the l.iterature on about 1960 to the present; northeastenn Europe and North America from penspectives; and (2) a review of literature on urban models and enengy to the components of (3) a review of literature of specifjc r^elevance the research design.

Inth.isreviewenergyconservat.ionandre]atedurbandatasounces and'it was observed prior^ to the 1973 energy CriSìS were cons'ider"ecl, thatenvironmentalandenergyconserVatjonconcernshadsomecommon of enengy had'important l'inks or.igìns. For examp'le, thermodynamic views of enengy efficiency' to both environmental concerns and to issues -97 -

In Europe interest in energy conservation was necessitated by a lack of indigenous non-renewable energy earìier in the 20th century. Consequently, energy conservation research and related techniques were well developed by the 1950's. By contrast, in North America prior to 1973, there was little interest ìn such research.

In the late 1960's and eanly 1970's, propelled in part by the environmental movement, interest in energy conservation jn Nonth America began to increase. In both Canada and the Unjted States reseanch 'into problems of thermal pollution from power productÍon suggested ways to use energy mone efficient'ly" However, after 1973 following the impact of the world oil crisis, interest in North America focussed more jntensely on issues of energy efficiency and energy conservation. Research by "Soft energy path" advocates began to indicate that increased energy growth was not inevitable and that other alternati ves !,rere Possibl e.

To ass'ist 'in establìshing a practìcal model of urban residentjal enetgy conservation, Iiteratune on applicat'ions of urban modelIing was reviewed. Some analysts caut'ioned that only modest expectat'ions should be assumed from modelling processes. For example' one argued for caneful development of sjmple models from available data and procedures.

A number of components in the application of the method were developed from I'iterature of panticular relevance to the research design. For examPle,

j 'in (1) empi ri ca1 sources for stat'ist cal data i n selected tracts neal c'ities were'identì fied;

(2) ljteratune on hypothet'ical cit'ies which could prov'ide pnototypes for devel opment of emp'i ri cal urban energy I i m'its was al so j denti fj ed ; 98

(3) scenarios, similar to those postulated by some soft energy path analysts for Canadian provìnces in the late 1970's, were identified as a useful means to develop time-related data for" future energy consumption in selected Plains cities.

These data sources and ana'lyti ca'l devi ces f rom the I iterature ane considered furthen in the following chapters. CHAPTERIII-RESEARCHDESIGT{AND0RGAIIIZATI0N0FDATA

for a method of This chapter describes a research design comparingsevenalurbanandenergynelatedvariab]esìnselected ìdent'ify discretionat"y cities to determine energy characteristics and residentialenergy.Thesevariablesincluderesjdent.ialdensity' transportenergyforjourney.to-worktothecore,andresjdentialenergy (interna.|tohouseholds).Iti¡comprisedof:'u.subsections:(1) (2) defjnition of genera.l descrìption of the research design; residentiaìenergyenv.ironmentsinrealc.ities;(3)determinationof for households and jnternal resìdent.ial /commercial enengy consumption urbantractsusingrealandestimateddata;(4)determinationofenergy consumptionforjourney-to-worktothecoreforse]ectedresjdential of a base level tracts in the selected cities; and (5) ident'ification ofurbanresidentialenergyatthediscretionofurbanhouseholds.

THE RESEARCH DESIGN 3.1 GENERAL DESCRTPTION OF

Thissub.sectjondescr.ibesaresearchdesignforanalysingareal res.identia]deve]opmentandenergycharacter.ist.icsinse]ectedlarge poss'ible to consider urban cities. The research clesign also makes'it alternative future poficies' In residential energy impì'ications under part.icu]ar,there]ationshipbetweenurbanformandresìdentialenergy useisexaminedtodiscoverhowenergyefficiencyandotherre]ated urban characterist'ics can be ìmproved'

-99- - 100 -

The neseanch design 'involves organization and modelfing of real and estimated energy data for selected residential areas of real cities. These data are obtained or derived from (gas) utility agencies; from census data for tnacts jn the selected cities; and from empinical data on unban transport energy from a variety of published sources. The method i nvol ves the fol I owi ng steps:

( 1) nel evant urban envi nonmental characteri sti cs f or sel ected c'it'i es are identified;

(2) unban census tract types ane defined;

(3) residential data for unban tracts ane described;

(4) internal enengy requirements for households in the selected cities ane estimated;

(5) tnavel distances for journey-to-work from res'idential tracts to the core and related energy consumption are computed from emp'irical data; and

(6) total residential ener!ry fon selected tracts 'in neal citjes js estimated and compared with neal data obtained from urban ut'ifity records to establish a base level of residential energy consumpti on.

3.2 DEFINITION OF RESIDENTIAL TNERGY ENVIRONMENTS IN REAL CITIES

In distinguishìng the characteristics of energy and nelated urban environments 'in real cities, three levels of information are impontant: (1) characteristics of selected c'ities i (2) characteristics of tracts j w'ith'in the c ti es ; and ( 3) chanacteri st'i cs of resi denti al enengy w'ithi n specific ur ban tracts" This subsection considers these three levels. 101

3.2.L Characteristics of the Selected Cities

l,lithin the southern Interior Pla'ins negion of Canada, l,linnipeg, Saskatoon, and Edmonton are three climaticaìly-stressed citjes, whìch are selected as an urban ìaboratory. Although all of the c'ities are larger than 100,000 population, they vany in phys'ical size, age, and dependence on fossil fuel enengy. For example, l.finnipeg, in the eastern portion of the Intenior Pla'ins, is well senved by hydroelectricity. To the west, other Pla'ins cities are prognessively mone dependent on fossil fuels for electricity product'ion (Canada ECt Secretaniat: L977).

The three selected cities share other distinct'ive chanacteristics, inc'luding temperatune, solar range, topography and urban form. There ane also similarjtjes 'in resjdentjal prototypes and nesident'ial p'lanning and construction standards jn the selected citjes. These similarit'ies are panticularly appanent in newer residential aneas where housing has been pìanned and buiìt by the same developens to the same building standards. Common dwelling unit pnototypes also neflect sìmilar energy charactenistics jn newen resjdential aneas.

Among large Canadian cities, these three cit'ies expenience among the langest numben of days with sub-zero temperatures. They also experience a significant number of hours with temperatures greaten than 30oC (Table 3). In major urban redevelopment tracts, such as those'in downtown core edge areas , a'i r-condi t'ioni ng i s requi red i n many bui l di ngs during warmer months. In addition, hout"s of bright sunshine and relatjvely few days with no sunshine offer potentials for" passive solan heat gain and for consjderation of seasonal use of active solar energy systems.

Located in nelatively flat p'lains with contiguous compact urban plans, the three cities are also comparable with respect to urban transport chanacteni stj cs. Only the crossj ngs of thei r ri veri ne locations cause any sìgnifjcant ìmpediments to traffic ci nculation. -r02-

Consequently travel distance f nom most outer suburbs to their r"espect'ive central cores'is nelatively short and direct.

3.2.2 Characteristics of Residential Tracts within the Cities.

Data based on standand quinquenn'ia1 census tracts are assembled to systematically compare urban energy characteristics in the selected cities. Statist'ics Canada outlines the following set of cn'itenia fon such tracts:

(1) boundaries must follow permanent and easily necognized l'ines on the gnound;

(2) popuìation must be between 2500 and 8000 (wjth a pnefenred average of 4000 persons), except fon census tnacts'in the Central Business District, in majorindustnial zones, or in periphenal nural or urban areas, whìch may have either a lowen or hjgher popu'lation;

(3) the area must be as homogenous as possible in terms of economic status and social living conditions; and

(4) shape must be as compact as possibìe (Mìtchell and Bond 1980,191).

Based on 1976 and 1981 data, thnee types of nesidential tracts ane selected in each c'ity. These are: (1) Inner Core tdge tracts, designated (I), usua'lìy the oldest jn thein respectìve cities and sjtuated closest to the downtown core; (Z) Mature Suburban Tracts, designated (M), often older subunbs developed after the Second l,/onld t,Ian; and (3) 0uter Suburbs and Fringe Areas, designated (0), nepresentative of more recent suburbs such as those developed from 1965-85. -103-

In each of the selected cities, tracts are chosen which reflect successive phases of residential growth and urban development, and as such represent different distances from the central cone. For each city, tracts ane selected from three zones indicated'in Figures 10,11, and 12.

3.2.3 Derivation of Data for Selected Urban Tracts

For specific tracts in each of the selected citìes, data are derived for residential density, travel distance and enengy for journey-to-work to the core and residential energy consumption. The procedure 'is as fol I ows:

(1) in each city, at least three tracts are selected in different unban zones, and consequently at different distances from the central core;

(2) from the 1981 Census, relevant data are extracted for selected residential tracts (e.9. residential dens'ities in numbers of households per square kilometre);

(3) travel d'istances from the centroid of each tract to the centroid of the core are computed;

(4) energy consumption data for each selected tract are obtained fnom enengy utilit'ies in the nespective cities. (Examples of utììity data are shown Ín Appendix 2, Plates 1-3 (p.230-232).

3.3 DETERMINATION OF INTERNAL RESIDTNTIAL/COMMERCIAL ENIRGY

CONSUMPTION FOR HOUSEHOLDS AND URBAN TRACTS USING REAL AND

ESTIMATED DATA

Thnee components of nes'idential/commercial energy consumption are considered in deriving real on estimated resident'ial energy consumption -104-

FIGURT 10: EDMONTON TRACT TYPES

'00¿ Pr rpql I 0r7É 0¡r 0? eÞe? one ond 0?70l 01¡0t' 069tr 06t 069 0'n' ,t,r4

frr I \*u rl 067 070 on

f¡ I Ët

610¡ ú¡0 îfi 5¡. 06ü _ñ H?, 010 0{ 60 ri I I þr ¡ 015 ffie ø¡ æt I e0 ætü¡ 0n.@ ær0r i 0t? 0ü q0 I ;4 TT þa?l ær0¿ úr \ vû, /a- \ ð ül¡ ,-h 006 06 rÆT 0so 00ô0¿ æ¿.0t \ 0s 02

qrot 00203 üæ

r0{ Pr 0r0.0t 0r0¡¡

'I Og, (s r¡

lc¡ta t:O,OOO fC¡trrf thr LTGEND r .la .ã i '¡ ffi INNER CORE IDGE TRACT ffi MATURE SUBURBAN TRACT

OUÏER SUBURBAN TRACT

SOURCE: Statìstics Canada - Census of Canada 1981. -105-

FIGURE 11: SASKATOON TRACT TYPES

02r.03

!l3t¡100¡ ¡nt0tl 02? 02r.01 02ro2

q8.03

0r802

006.03 0r¿02

oil.01

0r2.03

001

SCAL€. l:?r,oOO ÉcHgLL€

LEGEND ffi INNER CORE EDGE TRACT ffi MATURE SUBURBAN TRACT

OUTER SUBURBAN TRACT

Census of Canada 1981 SOURCE: Statistìcs Canada: FIGURE 12: l,JINNIPEG TRACT TYPES

052 t4? o¿

05r 0e

rrrtã¡ rrlf ¡¡¡lû¡r 539 Pt ¡¡lBl

I 2 r23 PI

r20 0t Pr t l0 0t lJ 537 0¡ O O)

522.0r I

00{ û2 202

5r0 r0r 0l LEGEND I 'l' 590 Pr INNER CORE EDGE TRACÏ t02 0t

l:ji:lii:iliti til 50r .02 t0r 02 Þ,!¿¡i!.:¡{ MATURE SUBURBAN TRACT

100 0l Pl OUTER SUBURBAN TRACT )t 500 0t Pr 00 02 Pr

SOURCE: Stat'istics Canada. Census of Canada lgB1. -107- w'ith'inselectedurbantracts:spaceheat'waterheat'andtnansport enengJ/forjourney-to-worktothecore.Rea]enef.gydataarederived aggregate form for areas of the from uti'lity records provided in l''lhere real data are selected citì es (Appendi x 2' P'231-233)' unavailab]eor.insuffic'ient,estimateddataonnes.identialenergyare substituted.Suchdataareobtainedfnomavai]ab]etechnicalresearch 1977; Fowler 1984)' and publications (e'g'CMHC

Forthethreeenergycomponents.identif'ied.inthissubsection' heat are internal (to residentia] the fìrst two, space heat and water un.itsorhouseho]ds)andaredeve]oped.insection3.3.However,the th.irdcomponent,energyforjourney-to-worktothecone'jsexternalto this transport enengy the residential un'it' A method of deriving 3'4' (p'111). component is descnibed in subsection 'is to be a residential/ Journey-to-work energy considered two reasons: commercial energy component for

(1)transportenergyforjourney.to-workisan.integralpartof resìdent.ial]ocationdecisions,andassuchisconsideredtobe consumpt'ion by virtue of a closely bound with household energy consumertrade-offofdistancetoworkfromresident.ialaneas.

(2)urbanhouseho]dsroutinelymakechoìceswithrespecttoa]ternat.ive modesandroutesforjourney-to-workasanintrinsicaspectof householdbudgetandvaluationofpersonaltime.

3.3.lDeterminat.ionofEstimatedEnergyRequirementsforSpaceHeat

Anumberofstepsarerequ.iredtodeterm.inespaceheatfor include: selected urban tracts' These

(1)determinationofthenumberand]ocationofoccup.ieddwellingtypes for Part'icular tracts; -108- dwelling type from (2) determinat'ion of energy consumption for each est'i mated data sources; unit types'in a tract (3) establ.ishment of the proportion of dwelling universe; and

(3)' determjnatjon of (4) from the product of items (1)' (2)' and each tract' estimated energy consumption for space heat in

for water Heat 3.3.2 Determination of the Estimated Energy Requirements

Unlikespaceheatforwhichenergyconsumptioncanvaryamong pen'iod of construction urban residential areas in accordance with their (CMHC 1977), energy for and the thermal effieiency of thein bu'ildings dependent on the design and water heat varies in a different way. Less heat'is more dependent on locational aspects of dweìling types, water householdsizeandageofpopuìation.Inthisnespect,changesin of persons per famiìy size as well as in the age-mix and numbers propontion of household energy household can sign'ificantly affect the dwelling-sìze or type' Fon which js used for water heat, regandless of popuìation w'ill normal'ly use less exampìe, an area with a 1arge e'lder'ly waterthananareaofyoungerfami].ieswithmanychildren.However' s.incewaterheatonìyrepresentsintheorderofoneth.irdthe twenty percent of propontion of energt for space heat or approximateìy is proportionateìy'less total household energy (cMHc Lg77,121), it sensitivetovariat.ionsinpopulationcharacter'istics.

consumption for water Therefore, the method of determining energü/ heatusingest.imateddatajssjmilartothestepsout]jnedforspace tract chanacteristìcs' such heat ìn section 3.3.1. However, rather than asbu.ildingage'fiþreìmpontantdwellingenergyindicatorsareageof inhabitants and number of persons per household' -109-

3.3"3 Derivation of Internal Residential Energy Consumption from Real Data

In contrast with the method of detenmining internal energy consumptìon for typical urban households and selected tnacts in sections 3.3.L and 3.3.2, which used estimated data, an alternative method 'is devised fon determining aneal residential energy consumption" As illustrated in Table 5, column 12 and in Appendix 2, Plates 1-3, p.23L-233, aggregated real residential/commencial energ¡/ consumpt'ion data are obtained through the cooperation of gas distnibution utilities in each of the selected cities. This entails running data on nesidential gas consumption of utiìity customers in each tract using postal code addnesses. A computer program is developed by cross-neferencing (1976) postal code computer tapes fon the selected cities with (1981) base year gas consumption necords by postal code fon each tract. Thus, pantialìy aggregated rea'l residential energy data are obtained for selected tracts.

Inadequac'i es i n the posta'l code convers'ion sof twane pnograms whi ch were available for this reseanch posed sevenal problems jn extractìng d urban related data. These prob'lems included a lack of disaggregated data fnom whjch to anaìyse the characteristics of census tracts which had experienced napid change during 'intercensal periods, and differences in the quaìity and consistency of census data netrieval programs which were avai lable for postal codes i n Edmonton, Saskatoon and l^li nnipeg. In futune, urban energy research might be assisted by an urban data system which can anticipate, at least to a degree, changes in postaì codes. For example, under such a system, postal code changes might be register:ed simultaneously with municipaì construction permìt approva'ls, so that updated postaì code conversion programs of a consistent standand would be available for al'l large Canad'ian cities. FOR TiREE SELECTED CANADIAN PLAINS CITIES TABLE 5: DENSITY AND ENEROY CONSUMPTION CHARACTERISTICS (8) (9) ( 10) (11) (12) fi) QI (3) (4) (5) (6) (71

1981 ( IN'IERNAL) ENERGY 198I RESID. ENERGY CONS. (KM2) CONSUMPTION PER HOUSEHOLD PER UNIT AREA LOCATI ON DENS I TY AREAL AND POP. PER NO. OF LAND RES ID. ESTIMA'IED REAL2 I TY ESTIMATEDl REAL CITY TRACT CA1EGORY UN IT HSHLDS. AREA DENS AREA (krrP) SPACE HT SPACE HT.

GJ/DUlY GJ|DIJlY GJ/DV/Y GJlOV/Y il/knz/Y TJ/krúlY NO PP km2 DUS. km2 DUS/km2

=Éæ¡¡æ¡ 581 4506 107 51 104 51 520 Wlnnlpeg .01 4 Core Edgo I 5821 2885 0 67 154 5l 151 45 494 521 .01 7 Malure-O1 d M 63rO 1595 0 60 2658 168 178 I 164 115 51 115 40 .5t5 Malure-Ne¡l M 3r08 1595 I 37 I t1 126 39 t84 220 .540.o2 Oul Suburb o t957 1 455 t o9 1535 137 P 244 O 82 31 12t 58 171 ¡ 2198 135' 0 88 1517 Saskatoon .008 Core Edge 174 I 118 5l 126 l8 158 I d M 1915 2200 t 25r 1760 .01 5 Malure-O 165 140 31 102 51 21t .01 0 Mature-O1 d M 271 4 2570 2 o7 1242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A .0r 8.02 Out Suburb o 3621 1275 t 29 988 N,/A 320 91 Ï 6 20 415 Edge I 7289 4620 24 t726 Edncnton .032.00 Core 205 51 10, 31 249 .048 Malure-O I d M 3427 1528 09 1402 lll 90 28 20, 145 .025 Oul Suburb 0 3204 I 540 09 1229 tt0 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A .006.05 Oul Suburb o 3413 1 580 09 1266

of Energ v ln Houslng (1977). Sources: (1) Central lqortgage and Houslng Corporatlon' 1977 - The Conservallon Manltoba' July 1983' (2) fealer Wlnnlpeg Gas Company Ltd., Conputer Servlces Dlvlslono t{lnnlPeg' December 1985' Saskaloon Power Corporallon, Conputer Servlces Dlvlslon, Reglna, Saskatchewan' June 1984' canadlan tltllltles Lld., Managenrent lnformatlon Systems, Ednonlon, Alberla, yards wllhln lhe lracl' (l) Effecllve lracl area adjusled from 2.07 kn2 to 1.25 km2 due fo a large area of rallway

{

& - 111 -

3.3.4 A comparison of internal Enengy consumption using Rear and Estimated Data Methods

Real and estimated data on "internal" househoìd energy are compared. Although values obtained by a method which app'lies real data vany above or below avenage levels obtained by a method which uses estimated data, values obtained using both methods are suffic'iently close to confirm the estimated data method as a pnactica] approach. However, the reaì data method is used as far as possible in investigating internal residential enengy.

3.4 DETERMINATION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR JOURNEY-TO.I,JORK TO THE CORE FOR SELECTED RESIDENTIAL TRACTS IN THE SELTCTED CITIES

In est'imating household energy consumption for unban transport, on'ly the component of energy consumption fon journey-to-work fnom residential tracts to the central cone 'is considered. The two reasons for this limitation are: (1) such trips ane reguìar, predictable and substitutable by alternative means of tnansport; and (2) mode subst'itutions and economies in energy consumption for jounney-to-work to d9 the core are discretionary to urban households.

In determining the household transport energy component for" jounney-to-work to the core, a multicolumn table is intnoduced (Tab'le 6). Column 1 lists each city and its nespect'ive tracts; column 2 lists the number of households pen tract; column 3'indicates the pnoportion of households with at least one person travelì'ing to wonk by car; and column 4'indicates the number of households with at least one member working in the core. BY RB-IC ÎAFIT¡¡\D RIVAI' B,BCí O'¡S"IPflCN FCR OtFl€f-ÞhlGK TC TE GE ?El-E6:çFIFCÏDCB\S.EfACßINTFECA¡AD|A|PtAll'SCITIES: $tr'¡ÂRlo I mn rcR4{T (15) (r4) AUTS'tBILE - (8) (9) (10) (11) ç2) (1) Q) 6) (4) (5) (6) (7) þRL Al.t'tla¡-l D?L tNlTDls]: A¡.Uórl- ] ¡DJI.6TD JCtßEr-'¡)lr'lcR( 10 ccFE nA¡'EffiT I ¡¡ùl.lÀl- B.BGI B\EFÊí At'lJô¡- B\FSI rAòSIT AV. Lil'El DISTIüE II.¡.IJA- Ð?L DlsT. ct-fY & ND. CF I r.D. cF I SÏ O{Sl,tP. CCh¡S.tvPTlO'l CNS.IPNCN FB lOGE IQË/A¡$'I @\S./ AJþ cchs. rAcT lo. rJ$1J6. r$rx6. l{s{x6.1{'421 DlsltcE lt(RVlSLÐ. RACT Ð l'€FK IN A'þ INITD sT. G\6. RA¡\SIT /l{r{D. Ð tffK Ð Ì,fiK CB.IROlD FCR AJP fA¡,SlT GE lLl- l{l-t-Ë. ÏAIEL rAVB- (AJþ) /l{r+D. /l{htD. IN CCRE IN CCFE Ðca{rolD & RA{SIT

CYù.t/Y c,J/ùlr GYdL/Y rJ/k?lt krrs/f kÍE/Y MJ&n cYdtlY ùsikn? dusl.fr? krrs kIrË (11)(7) (4) (10112) f Arr0 (8)(9) Í nA¡6 fio)+o2) Gst.) (Dc) L4rl .520c1 A¡=146¿¡q'5' çn, ç7tl l.rllmlpeg 1@ 5.4 2.0 E2 0.5 /L8 6n 014 &ß .9 2.O P 1115 fr3 4.5 EI 5.0 &6 l\) 017 Eß .9 t9 2.0 7.6 15.6 M. il6 ¡ 535 1164 .10 99 2.0 2t.o 272. lffi 2.2 wu2 1535 .Ð 401 11.2 (.æ) (.æ) Sækaiqt 2.0 4.5 82 17?B 5.8 G 151'l .35 ,31 0.3 @ 191 5.6 2.0 r7@ .35 616 0.8 5.2 015 3.5 2.0 3.1 &7 ffi fl1 010 '1242 .3' 6 lal 1æ nn a0 2.0 018.@ ffi .35 % 6.0 ç2' (.78) 2"O 510 5.0 1118 0.9 5.4 M. 032 3t?6 .9 2.0 &6 ffi Ø 3.5 14o2 .9 Q1 3.0 048 2.8 LO 7.5 15.4 1626 51€f' oÞ 1D .]0 ß9 z"os zt6 TM 2.1 4 6@ 1ffi .50 Ð ll.0 n7

(þødlx aiÐ (5) Adapt€d tsn Cmle 19/4:80 (t frcn SHeglc Plarnlrg Sro4 - Trasgt h'¡ú1919l-T2 SqfcÊs: ) AdepH fron dala (4) û"on gnrir¡eed 19TVz16 lbld:26 (ble 4.3) Adaphed (2) Aephed ú"qn dal-a û'on Sffiegtc Planl6 Oop - fi.S.) = l-bdal SPI¡l - 113 -

Ïhe next group of columns 'in the table 'indicates the shortest distance to the cone in kilometres. This is'designated by Dc*, the direct distance fnom the centroid of any resident'ial tnact to the centroid of the core or CBD (column 5). Adjusted travel distance to the core is denoted by Lc (Tables 6 and 7 - column 6). This "adjusted', distance allows for a tendency for automobiles to be.used more frequently for longer and more dispersed tnips to work than other. modes, and for an underestimate of straight line distance of dwelfings from the CMA centre (Transport Canada 1979 , 32).

The next step is to bneak down the proportion of commuter popu'lation wh'ich travels to work by diffenent modes" In Table 6 and 7 - columns 7 and 8, modaì sp'lit percentages of households, using different forms of tnanspont, ane established. Energy consumption fon private automobiles (Tables 6 and 7 - column 9) is derived from 1978 data (canada EMR 1978). These data assume 1980-81 fleet car average fuel consumptjon ìs in the order of 11.7 litres per 100 kilometres, or a level of vehicle energy consumption of 2.08 megajoules per kilometre.**

* Adjusted distance is gìven by the formula: L.={.0 + 1.5.2 Dc, where:

. 4.0 is a constant denoting a minirnum positive value for avenage trip ìength

I.52 1s a coefficient which allows fon differences in noutes and noad conditions

. Dc is the avenage stnaight ljne distance of dwelìings from a central business district in kilometres (Tnanspont Canada 1979, 32) ** 0then sounces suggest that s'ignificant adjustment is requined for short d'istance cold start conditions (Dro'let et al I977; Canrier 1974). 0n this basis an unban d'istance of 0.5 kilometnes nesults in shont trip enengy consumption fon a typical fleet car average of 5.4 megajouìes pen kilometne. Thjs companes with 2.08 megajoules per kilometne for a more normative (longer ) journey-to-work tnìp of 11 kilometres. Therefone, unit fuel consumption incneases sìgnificantly for shor^t trips. qF FCÐ ?B-E 7: CE\FI¡ R¡C1S lN TFEE C.A¡\IADIA'¡ R \lN CITIES: B\ERÊI O{S}PflO,{ FCR .fi.FlËf-lGtrKFK 1O TE GE By RßL|C TFtr6|T¡¡\D mtVAE Aulo4Bttr - $EtsRto I DAn (1) (j) (4) (5) (6) (7) Q) (8) (9) (10) fll) q2) (11) fl4)

¡DJJSÐ JÏfi[Ef 10 MR< TNITDIST tNutAL Ð}LA¡$U4L DUL RACT ÀD. CF CITY & fr NO. CF AV. ST. LITE DlS"Û\CE AW]AL ÐRL DIST B\mSl ¡NhTJAL EI$GÍ RA¡SIT RAEF{RT ¡l\Àuql EtqGf RACTIO. I-EFLD6. F6nX6. 'lorGK FS{X6./$É DlsltcE 11"Ê/Á¡¡.t¡.4 66./ AJTO ochs. O,E.I"P. æ\gf{:rnO'l @|\$f'PnO\¡ Ð i{sK ]o KR< FCR AJTD .IO ct{FotD RÊòtsrr I nm tNITDIST. O\& RôùSIT /{r{Ð. t{Rl}EttD. hGK INGE INME INME DCEIROID & RAISIT ÎAVEL I nnVA- (AJþ) /-ts{-D. 4sr+D. ÁtI t{t{¡6. I

d,rs/^ni dus4rÍP krrs krrs krrg/f krrs,/Y MJ¡km GJ/ùtll cJ/ù1r q/ült WdülY rJ/kelt

(Esl.) (Dc) L=}|-1.ftl A¡=26¿¡¡4.5. f Aljto (8)(9) f lR¡t6 fit)(7) fi0)+(12) (4) fi0r12)

mlFg çn, ç73' 40]6 1?92 o4 .n 0.5 a6 6 1ã1 5.4 68 2.0 1.0 7.8 10.1 017 2gß E7 7.1 g4 .n L0 24n 4.5 ll.1 2.0 1.9 13.0 t0.4 ¡ 535 1164 .9 a9 7.6 1'119 1t3 ffi 3.9 18.0 LO 3.5 A"' 7.5 ÞJ 1535 .J0 wu2 4Û 11.2 18.1 m æ9 2.2 15.8 2.0 4.8 18.6 7.5 È I (.æ) (.æ) m 1517 .fr 531 0.1 t3 21 1æ 5.8 7.4 2.0 6 &0 4.2 015 17@ .5 616 G8 ¿L1 A 1574 5.6 &l 2.0 a &8 t4 0t0 12q2 .5 435 5.1 7.2 @t re:5 3.5 &3 2.O 1.4 g7 42 0r8.02 ffi .9 % 6.0 t1.t 16 æ. t.0 11.7 2.0 2.2 13.8 48

khonhort (.2) (.78) 052 .fr lltS 0.9 4þ2 445 15ß 5.0 7.9 2.0 I &9 10.0 048 'Tñ1ñ2 .n at 1.0 7.1 74 m 3.5 9.2 2.O 1.5 10.8 4"5 1D .Ð gi2 tö 59 7.5 1r1 1BE 2.8 1r5 zo z8 16.3 60 æ602 .J0 Jæ tffi I1.0 17.9 1884 ffi 2.1q 15.9 2.% a8 17.1 67 (l) Sorces: Slraþlc Pla,nlrg Aup - T"a.rsporÈ Ca1tu lSt*,32 (Apperdlx 4A) (5) ¡dqted fisn Cryle 19742û (2) (tble SHeglc Planlrg o.q+ - lbld:26 4.j) (4) A@d fion Mreed 1977:16 (M.S.) = l,bdal Spllt - 115 -

Table 7 - column 10, wh'ich represents annual automobile js by combin'ing consumption for journey-to-work per household, derived energy columns 8 and 9. Column 12, which represents annual transit by combìning consumption per household for iourney-to-work, is derjved for coìumns 7 and 11. It iS the product of unit energy consumption transit per household (column 11) ancl the modal split (27 per cent), proport'ion annual journey-to-work distance to the core (column 7) as a of transit travel.* Column 1.3, which represents the total annual energy derived by consumpt'ion per household for journey-to-work to the core' ìs transport adding columns 10 and 1.2. Column 14, which nepnesents total per tract''is energy consumption to work in the core for all households derived by multiplying column 13 by column 4'

This method of analysjng residentjal transport energy depends 'in substantial]y on the use of empi rical data f nom sources the literature. Residential transport enengy data must be estimated or real derived from such sources because there are at present insufficient consistent with data to de¡ive transport energy consumption in a manner consumpti on f rom the method of establ.i sh.ing i nternal resi denti al energy es ut'i 1 i ty data fon neal ci ti '

In future, 'if greater methodoìogical consistency and precision i nternal and external are des'i red, it wi I1 be necessary to ana'lyse both achieved by resiclential energv using a consistent method. This may be ca¡ energy transposing motor vehicle registration data into fleet each postal code consumption figures for vehicle types registered in within a pant'icular nesidential tract. In combination with origin and jn cjties' such destjnation analyses for resident'ial tracts the selected question real transport data soul'ces, together with appropriate census more precìse amendments or othen quest'ionnaines, cou'ld facilitate

not to vary w'ith * Fon transit buses, enengy consumption is assumed equiþment is assumed to run at normal warm-up-tìme, sinå.-ï.uñiit through most of engine temperatu;;; ã;; io .otitihuort operation the day. - 116 - estimation of journey-to-work energy to the core from within each nesidential tract, and would also result'in greater consistency in data for both 'internal and external residential energy consumption"

ENERGY AT 3.5 IDENTIFICATION OF A BASE LEVEL OF URBAN RESIDENTTAL THE DISCRETION OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS

For residentjal households, two aspects of energy comprise total resident,ial energy consumþtion: (1) internal energy, which includes (2) extennal space heat, water heat, and enerqy for appljances; and energy, which includes resjdential nelated tnansport energy. The proportions of internal residential energy represent approximate'ly 70 percent for space heat, 18 percent for water heat and approximateìy 12 percent for appfiances (canada ECE Secretariat 1977). 0f these 88 pencent components of intennal residential consumption, approximately can decjde can be sajd to be discretionary' that is, household consumens requ'ired from on the type of fuel to use and on the quantity of heat thein residentiaì energy system(s) for acceptabìe levels of comfort'

Bycomparison,appl.ianceenergyislessd.iscret.ionarytothe to extent that electrical energy choices are not usually avajlable control nesidentjal cgnsumens' nor are Cgnsumers able to exercìse much appliances' The over the qua'lity or quantity of energy consumed by most non-use of major choice available to them' aside from a decision of effic'ienc'ies' appliances, is to select appliances w'ith higher energy a'lthough For external nes'idential energy, such as nesidential transport, journey-to-work mode to the core cho.ices are usualìy ava'ilable for the punposes, the in most large cities, for many othen urban travel of most lower automobile is the onìy realistic chojce fon nesidents particular, density suburbs. consequently, commut'ing energy, and in one of the few areas energy for. jounney-to-wor k to the core, FêPnesents for significant modal d'iscretion among resident'ia] energy consumers' residentjal Therefone, for th'is analys'is, a base level of djscnetionary -TT7 -

energy for urban households is assumed to comprise space heat, waten heat, and eneng¡l for journey-to-work to the core.

A figure for base level of discretionany residential energy is obtained by adding values obtained for internal residential enengy in section 3.3 to values obta'ined in section 3.4. Table 8 illustrates a format for cornparison of such enengy consumption characteristics for the selected real cities. In this table, the last row denotes total residential energy which results from a combination of internal resìdential energy and energy consumption for journey-to-work to the core.

3"6 SUMMARY

This chapter has described a research design for determining nesidential energy consumption in real cities. This included determination of residential enengy cond'itions jnternal to households as we'll as external residential energy requirements, such as energy for journey-to-work. It also compared real and estimated data methods for deriving intennaì energy consumption, and identified a base level of residential energy under the discnetionary control of urban households.

Given the inadequacy of neal data ava'ilable to determine characteristic residential ener(Ð/ limits and changes in urban residential enengy consumption over time, and a1so, gìven a need to process and manipuìate large quantities of energy data from a number of urban tracts in three cities, a variety of devices and nelated procedures were employed to originate data in th'is urban laboratory. These included a companison of neal city data with comparable data for hypothetical c'ities; the use of scenarios to provide a sunrogate for time series data; and the app'licatìon of a three-dimensional matnix to 'lange process and mani pul ate quantit'ies of real or esti mated urban data. This urban laboratory, its devices and their application are outlined in Chapter IV. FCR FEA¡. CITIES ?B.E 8: KR4ATFCR æ\fFRISCI'¡ CF FESIIE{TAL EhERCI ¡¡\D RE.AÐ PIAPÌ"EEIS

l.lI¡NIFEG EMNN{ sAs(aTrN CITY

ol7 o52 048 Ø m 015 010 ÌACT lO. 0r4 5fi w.@

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(2) GCSS FESIIBITIAL AffiL DE\SITY ü/ktt? I

(l) SP¡CE l-FÁT (S.H.) EI'ERGÍ/tXJ/Y Qi/Y

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(5) SB 10?l.s qn I

(6) '|RA!EL DIS?ùüE km

(7) .f,1.F1€l-Þlr{FK B\EFÊí C0'|CÂJ/Y alDvr I

(8) EÌffOlÀl/ll0. .ItFr€f{wrlF( tr'IIRf/IU/Y cJ/ùJ/t

(9) EI'$G. O'Sntt?n (9¡cE I-EATAÀD MTR l€AT) T)rkt&n

(lO) ENRGI O\SlvmchykraY ntu'eN I .nfit€f-Þld(R< D TECCFE

¡ (1 1 ) ÐnL ElfRSY o\Er'PnO'f¡u#¡ TtknUt SH., W.H. A\D J.-þtdK. INC(FE CHAPTER IV RESEARCH IJETHOD

This chapter focuses on a research method in an urban laboratory which comprises thnee neal and two hypothetical cities. It ident'ifjes major devices used in this laboratory to overcome constraints in the method and j ts data base. Such constrai nts 'invol ve urban 'limits, changes in urban residential energy consumption over time, and the manipuìation of information in a three-dimensional matrix.

4.1 THE URBAN LABORATORY -- ITS DEVICTS, THEIR PURPOSE AND APPL ICAÏION

Canada's 24 ìargest urban areas, that is census metropolitan aneas of at ìeast 100,000 population in 1981 (Census of Canada,1981) can be divided into six regional groups with similar chanacteristics. These jnclude: (1) tne Pacifjc Coast cities, Vancouver and Victoria; (2) the Interion Plains cities, Ca'lgâny, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina and Wi nnipeg ; (3) the Cent ral Lowl and and Great Lakes ci t'ies , lli ndson, London, Hamilton, St. Catherines - Niagara, Kitchenen, Toronto, and 0shawa; (4) the lower St. Lawrence and Ottawa Vaì1ey cities, Ottawa-Hul1, Montreal, Trois-Rivieres, and Quebec City; (5) the Atlantic Coast cities, Saint John, Halifax and St. Johns and (6) the Canadian Shield cities, Chicoutimi-Jonquiere, Sudbury, and Thunden Bay. These sìx groups of large cities exhibit di stinct regiona'l simj lanit'ies in phys'iographic characteristics wh'ich include climate, vegetation, land forms and resources. Some of these urban regions are also subject to greater environmental stress fnom adverse climate, and/or ane more vulnenable to depletion of non-renewable (energy) resources.

-119- -120-

Among the six gnoups of large Canadian cities, the Interion Plains which are subject to the most severe winter climate and to depìetion of fossil fuels provide an ideal region in which to cons'iden residential enengy conservation and related urban poìicies. Consequent'ly, Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Edmonton, the most norther 'ly ìarge cities in their respective provinces within the region, are three real cities selected as the urban 'laboratory for this research.

þJithin this urban laboratory, several devices are introduced to overcoÍþ methodologicaì constraints. These include hypotheticaì cities, scenarios, and a three-dimensional matrix of urban energy data:

(1) Hypotheticaì cities: these provide a benchmark to compare urban energy data in both real and hypothetical cities. Such urban inodel s heì p to ove rcome I i mi tati ons i n data for real c'i ti es by providing a scale of practical limits of urban enerç¡y parametens. [^lithin these limits, relevant conditions 'in real cities are compa ned.

(2) Scenarios: the application of altennative energy scenarios to data fon real and hypothetical cities over comparable time peniods assists in the estabìishment of pnospective time limits or "lead time windows" within which sustainable urban energy conditions can be achieved.

(3) The Thnee-dimensional Matnix: the matrix fonmat pnovides a method for organizing and presenting urban energy related data 'in thnee-dimensions. Its purpose is to he'lp to visualize and predict change in urban residential energy parametens in nesponse to changing enengy policies over time. -l2l-

4.2THEUSE0FHYP0THETICALCITIEST0ESTABLISHLIMITSFoRC0MPARING URBAN ENERGY CHARACTERISTICS

Insection3.2,urbanenvironmentsinl,linnipeg,Saskatoonand Edmontonweredefinedintermsofrealdataforresidentialenergy consumptionandrelatedconditions"Fons.imilartracts.ineachofthese cities,characteristicvariablessuchasres.identialdensity,travel distancetothecore'andres.identja]energvconsumption,arecompared. Howeven,becauseonlythreerea]citiesareanalysed,conc]usjonswhich database are limited' can be derived from this small

Inordertom.itigatethedataconstraintsofa]imitedunìVerse' andclarifyperceiveddifferencesinurbanparameters,abroadersca]e is required, w'ithin which urban for comparison of urban data characteristicssuchas,residentia]density,commutìngd.istance,and resiclent'ia]energyconsumptioncanbeassessed.Therefore,.inaddition toconsideratìonofparametersinrealcit.ies'comparab]edataare derjvedfromtwourbanmodelsateitherendofaspectrumofres.idential dens.ityandcommutingd.istance.Th'isuseofhypothetìcalcities providesasca]eagainstwhichempil.icaleviclenceonenergyconsumptìon with postulated l'imìts' from real citìes can be compared

Intheurbanlaboratory,anenvironmenta]contextisdefjnedfor twohypothetica]citiesinac]jmat.icaì1y-stressedneg.ion; characteristicsofthesecitiesandthe.irrespectivetractsare compared;andl.imitsfromtheseurbanmodelSareusedtos'imu]ate areas of neal cìties' nes'idential energy fimits for Cities 4.2.! An Urban Context for^ Hypothetìcal cal ci ti es a 'i context f on hypotheti ' I n est'abl shì ng an u rban reg.ions.imi]artothesouthernlnteriorP]a.insofCanadaisassumedasa sunrogateforaprototyp.icaìc].imatica.lly-stressedurbanregion.l¡fithin th.isregìon,]argeseasona]differencesintemperatureandextended -L22- heating seasons are assumed to be normative, and space heat is nequired for most of the year. Consequently, resi denti al ener'ç¡y consumption and efficiency are important policy concerns. Because the designated region varies in physiographic characteristics and enengy resources, its sub-regions and their major urban centres depend on djfferent mixes of fossil fuel and hydroelectric energy, and reflect a range of potentials to achieve balanced sustainable energy.

In this context, two hypothetical cities are selected to simulate divergent chanacteristics of unban centralization and decentral'ization. As such, they reflect diffenent assumptions about urban nesidential compactness or dispersal, residential density, commuting distance to the core, and energy consumpt'ion by urban households and urban areas. At one end of the scale is the assumption that unban resources ane used most efficiently when urban res'idential development is intensive. This is the case, for example, in urban megastructures, ot'continuous urban build'ing systems, which are able to contain ent'ine citìes or substantial portions theneof (Banham 1976, 8). Such a concept of concentrated intensive urban development is exemplified by a hypothetical compact city which takes the form of a ring of horseshoe-shaped urban clusters (Appendix 1., Plate 3, p.228). It is des'igned to ensure reasonable amenity for each household with respect to natunal light, ain, sun, and outdoor access, and, at the same time, minimize unnecessary urban enengy consumption.

At the other end of the dens'ity sca'le'is a hypothetical decentralized city. This model is based on the assumption that urban settl ement patterns are most ef f i c'ient whene devel opment 'is extens'i ve and uncnowded. In th'is case, households may consume'in the orderof an acre of land each, including private outdoor necneation space and "kitchen gardens". For almost a century, this pattern of unbanization has been advanced by plann'ing theorists and architects, such as Howand (t19021 1960), Bot'sodi (1933), hlright (1935, 1953) Kaufman and Raeburn (1961), and Goodman and Goodman (1947). In this dissertation, it is -L23- illustrated by a decentralized urban model repnesenting a highly structured negional configuration of unban settlements (Goodman I977).

A'lthough the two hypothetical cities reflect distinctìy diffenent concepts of urban form and structure, neither repnesents a model of extreme high or low nesidential density. However, both ane sufficient'ly different in residential compactness and tnavel distance to the urban core to provide useful limits for comparison of energy and unban parametens in real cÍties.

4.2"2 The Application of Hypotheticaì Cities

Hypothetical cities are described and their tract characteristics are defined and compared to establish a scale against which real unban energy parameters can be assessed. This is outlined in the foììowing steps:

(1) Two hypothetical cities are described. One is compact and centralized and the other is decentralized and dispersed.

(2) Sectors and tnacts in the two hypothetical cities are defined. Areal units within hypothetical cities which can be companed with similar units in real cities are identified.

(3) Relevant data for both centralized and decentralized unban models are tabulated, anaìysed and companed with data for real cities. The format fon tabulation and comparjson of data js illustrated in Table 9. This aspect of the procedure includes:

(i ) establishment of gnoss residential/commencial densities for each tract;

(ii) derivation of space and waten heat requirements for each res'ident j al tract; ?Bf 9: rcF4ATFm 6,9RlSO'l G FESIDB'IIIÂL FE-AÐ B\ær FFSI¡IEBS rcR FEAL At\D l{lÐfEIC¡l- CI.tlES ^¡D

ctlY l{I¡NIEG E¡,TNTh¡ SAS(ATCN 64TCT TEF{R¡I-IÐ

RACT l,¡C. ot4 67 55' tu92 032 048 TD m ol5 010 $lre lrrtq l{eb T.c. D.C. R.C.

ÎACT'I1?E INITS M o o I M o M o lon l,loî qcrt l6n l4ún o6n

(1) TACTAfiEA krrP o.67 0.60 1.51 t.æ 1.24 1.09 1.æ .88 2.0'1 2.07 t.æ 1.m t.@ 1.æ 1.æ 1.æ

(2) eC6S FESIIENilÁL [E\SIIY ü,6/knP I

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(4) l{AB I-EAT H.H.) B,æf¿ÎI/r GI/Y I

(5) SB'O1A.S c.yY I

(6) EAVE- DIS}{ÚE km I

(7) JOtFf€r-Þì{R( B.æl 0\6.lUY GYIII/Y ¡\)Þ I (8) Et\BÊl/Ulll¡C. JtFl€f-Dì¡Jfr( E\BCY/üJIY e!{r/r I

(9) Eìæ. O'S¡or?¡ (9¡CE |€ATA¡DM'm ÆAT) TJ/kß?fi I

( tO) Ð\Eref 6\üJ"mcN/<ÍPlY TJn{r?lY üfiTEY-r}+¡F< Ð T€GE

0 1) Ð?L El'æl @\gt'PTl}VÑ/Y TJftRfi SH., W.H. ¡¡D J.-Þì,K. lN GE

LæÐ\D on âoles @rpæt noOel D.C énotes dlsùrlcl' eîre dn èmfes d¡sps"sd rrc'él RC èrples tçglcnal @rlre T.C énohes ìHl ænirÞ -L25-

(iii) estimation of tnavel distance to the central core and associated enengy consumption for journey-to-work commuting to the core; and

(iv) estimation of aggregate energy eonsumption for residential /commerciaì tracts to faci litate identification of potentiaì energy consumption savings through mone effi cient urban arrangements.

Following these steps, hypothetical cities are used to establish a scale of limits for parameters in real cities. These limits are illustrated in Figure 13.

4.3 THE USE OF SCENARIOS TO COMPARE URBAN INERGY CHARACTERISTICS ON A TIME SCALE

Uncertaint'ies about futune energy policies, and the limited time senies clata on nesidential enengy consumption suggested the need for a method to compare residential energy behaviour in real and hypothetical citjes on a long term time scale. For this purpose, scenarios offer imaginary p'ictures of alternative energy policy weì'l into the future. In this respect, scenarios provide surrogates to simulate present and futune urban energy parameters.

Scenanios have two functions'in this method: (1) to provide an 'indicator of energy sustainability; and (2) to establish a pnospective time frame.

(1) Indicator of energy sustainabi'l'ity. Given limitations of time, resounce availability, and economic conditjons, scenarios make it possible to project energy avajlability to a specific time period (e.9. 202L or 2025). Aften this time, energy futures are less certain and dependence on non-renewable energy nesources 'is less susta'inable. However, some scenanios, which are dependent on nenewables, ane possible to sustain indefinitely. -126-

FIGURE 13: LIMITS IN HYPOTHTTICAL CITIES USID TO TSTABLIsH LIMITS FOR RTAL cITIEs (a)

GROSS RESIDTNTIAL DTNSITY 0!/rm2 1010 20?0 30 4010 50 6010 7010 8010 e0?0 10?00 11000 11000 ? ?0 ?0 HYPOTHET ICAL CITIIS

COMPACT

OICE NTRAL I ZEI)

'TOTAL RANGE

RTAL CITIES

I.II NN I PEG

EDMONTON

SASKATOON

(h)

TRAVEL DISTANCE TO CORE IN KILOMETRES KI LOMTTRES O I r? 21 2? 31 3? ? HY POTH TT I CAL CITIES

COMPACT

DTCE NTRAL I ZI D

TOTAL RANGE

REAL CITIES

l.ll NN I PEG

EDMONTON

SASKATOON

(c)

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TERAJOULES PER SQUARE KILOMTTRE

HYPOTHET ICAL 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 CITIES

COMPACT

DECINTRAL I ZED

TOTAL RANGE

RTAL CITIES

I.JINNIPEG

IDMONTON

SASKATOON -r27 -

(2) A prospective time frame. This is, in effect, iì lead time window within which energy-related objectives can achieve a sustainable energy resource future for urban areas. To achieve such "steady-state" urban enengy conditions, a stnong commitment.is required to initiate urban energy planning in a timely manner and to use ìead tine wisely for enengy efficient unban investments.

In this section, thnee scenarios are definecl; po'licy alternatives unden'lying these scenarios are described; alternative techniques fon determin'ing nesidential energy consumption are considered; a method of applying the scenarios to estimate changes in total residential energy consumption over tinre is described; and implications of residential energy consumption and efficiency are discussed for both real and hypothetical cities under each scenario.

4.3.1 The Definition and Characteristics of Scenanios

Scenarios pnovide a means of stag'ing or simulating urban and related ener"gy conditions oven time. In this respect, they are an € important device to overcome a lack of time-series data on urban and energy-related conditions for specìfic c'ities. They aìso facilitate cons'idenation of the avaiìability of future enen!Ð/ resources; the impact of urban gnowth and system effic'iency on future energy; and implications of the lead time required to imp'lement energy efficient urban policies.

Scenarios are arrived at in two ways: (1) extr.apolating or "forecasting" from present real or assumed parameters into the future; and (2) "backcasting", on wonking backward in time from a futune target level of energy consumption and system efficiency to urban parameters wh'ich must obtain at present to achieve future enengy objectives. Such parameters include residential compactness, urban commuting dìstance, and unban residential energy consumption. These neflect particular levels of res'idential energy use and enengy system-efficiency. Although each scenanio is related to a particulan energy perspective such as that -r28- suggested by Gander and Belaire (1978) or Lovins (1976), no scenan'io nepresents an absolute with respect to a particular level of urban enengy consumption or system efficiency. However, each scenario is sufficiently dìstinct to facilitate djfferentjation in enengy behaviour among selected urban nesidential tracts or c'ities.

Three po'l'icy al ternat'ives are considered i n establ ì sh'ing a nange of scenarios:

(1) There js the confident view that an easy technical fix exjsts or can be developed to ensure futune energy suppfies. However, the essential optim'ism of this scenan'io may conceal an i nherent complacency about napid depletion of available fossil fuel energy. This has been chanacterized as a Fast Gnowth scenarjo (Rowland Ig74), or as a Technical Fix or H'istoric Trends scenanio (l^lillson 1e81 ) .

(2) At the other end of the scale from the fast growth alternative

'is the Zero Energy Growth or Soft Energy Path scenario (Lovìns @ 1979). It is sometimes refenned to as a Consenven Soc'iety scenarìo (Cordell 1979). Thjs scenario adopts a thenmodynamic v'iew of economics and energy, stress'ing impl'ications of the napìd dep'letion of non-nenewable resounces and the 'importance of us'ing enengy resounces effic'iently. Thus it seeks to buy time for future generations to ease the transitjon to a sustaìnable energy futune. Howeven, it also assumes modifications in unban ìifesty'les.

(3) The tconomic Fix or Modified Histonìc Trends scenanio (Brooks and Casey 1979) represents a pragmatic comprom'ise. Th'is approach ìs characterized by an assumptjon of modjfications in present energy po].icy to nespond gr.adualìy to depleting non-renewable nesources and to a need to conserve enengy over" the longen term. This scenario is ljm'ited to dealjng only with middle to long range po'lìcy alternatives, and assumes little fundamental change in urban ì i festyl e. -r29-

characteristics of the three scenanios ane summarized as follows:

(1) Fast tnergy Growth or Historic Trencls scenario: under this scenario, over an extended period (e.g. 20-3s years) urban enengy consumption 'increases, or at best stabilizes. It assumes either a modest incnease in urban and economic gr"owth, or stable gnowth conditions with litile change in unban enengy system ef f ic.iency. conditions which influence present urban energy consumption and system efficiency panameters are assumed to continue into the future wíth little change in enengy consumption per household or pen areal unit.

(2) A Modified Trends Scenanio: this scenanio is assumed to neflect moclest increases Ín residential density accompanied by significant decreases in areal residential energy consumption. In effect, it repnesents a compnomise between the low ener$/ system efficiency of scenario I and the high energy system efficiency of Scenario III.

(3) A soft Energy Path scenario: under this scenario, a substantjal decrease in residential energy consumption js assumed to occur. ö This reflects significant increases in residential density and substantial and rapid increases in unban energy system efficìency. For exampìe, scenanio III assumes that, in'itia'lìy, stringent energy objectives are established which must u'ltimate'ly be met at a futune date (e.9. 2025). By postulating such a date and defining related conditions -- "backcast'ing" from the future to the present -- energy conditions are identified which ane requined'in the present in order to achieve a sustainable enengy future.

4.3.2 Alternative Methods of Determining Total Residentiaì Ener.gy Consumption under Diffenent Scenanios

Two methods of determin'ing residential enengy under diffenent scenarìos are consjdered. The fi rst invol ves appor.tioning (national ) - 130 - sectoral energy consumption to selected cities under each scenanio on a household basis. Energy consumption fon tracts within the cities is then appontioned from such g'loba11y derived data. The second method involves computing total household energy consumption on a unit bas'is from empinical sources. Unit consumpt'ion under each scenario is then multiplied by the number of households per tract to determine areal energy consumption.

(1) Method I - Extrapoìation of Urban Enengy Consumpt'ion from Global Data. In 1981, l.linnipeg, with a census metropolitan anea (CMA) population of 584,842 represented appnoximate'ly 2.4 pencent of Canada's 24,34t,700 pensons; Edmonton, with a CMA population of 657,057 represented 2.6 percent; and Saskatoon, with a CMA population of 154,210 represented approximately 0.6 percent. In 1980, total secondary energy consumpt'ion in Canada approached 7.L4 exajou'les (EJ) on 7140 petajoules (PJ) (EMR 1981: 26). In l,l'innipeg, Edmonton and Saskatoon, secondary energy consumption for all energy sectors on a household basis was in the order of 171,185, and 43 petajoules, respectively. 0f this urban energy, the total residential/commercial component represented in the order of 53,57, and 13 petajoules respectively and the journey-to-work enengy component represented appnoximately 4, 4, and 1 petajoules, nespect ì veìy.

Because the residential/commencial sector included a sì.gnificant non-nesidential energy component for shops, offices, and institutions, as well as a commercial-nesidential component for rental apantments, the nesidential energy component of thjs sector was reduced accordìngly. Consequent'ly, for l.linnipeg, Edmonton and Saskatoon, jnternal resjdentiaì/commenc'ial energy was'in the range of 31-53 petajouìes, 33-57 petajoules and 8-13 petajou'les, respectiveìy. The nanges for total res'idential enengy including nesidential transport wene appnoximately 35-57 petajoules, 37-61 petaioules and 9:14 petajouìes, respectiveìy. Average vaìues for res'ident'ial consumptìon al one ìn these -131- selectedcit.ieswereintheordenof42,45,and]'lpetajouìes' nespecti ve'lY.

jn share of Considering the case of W.innipeg, if 1981, its total purposes was 42 petajouìes' national enengy consumpt'ion for nesidential 'in the'order of 193 gigaioules then i ts 217,210 households each consumed 'included energy for thein total internal residential needs. These needs forappliances,asweìlasfonspaceconditìoning,andwaterheat. appnoximately 83 Since these latter two purposes alone represented lrlinnipeg' 193 percent of the total residential energy for households in gigajou]esresultedinl54gigajoulesforbothspaceandwaterheator journey-to-work energy approximately 158 gigaioules when a component for cOnsumption levels were consumption was 'included. If 1981 household year 202L, then "jntsrnal" assumed to continue to a scenario target close to 154 residential energy consumption in winn'ipeg wouìd remain gigajoules,andparameterssuchasresidentjaldensityandtransport energy would remain relativeìy unchanged'

Res'ident'ial Energy consumpt'ion ( 2) Method I I - Deri vati on of Internal enengy data for fnom Real Data. under this methocl, totaì r'esidentjal derived from estimated spec.ific cities and urban residential areas are from available real data values fon residentjal transport energy and residential consumption sources such as utility records for internal (Table5,p.110).Suchrecordsareusedwhererealenergyconsumption posta.| code addresses, and a data are availab]e in aggr.egate form by to correlate postal code conversion software program is available canada census data Th'i s method ut.i I i ty bi 1 ì'i ng addresses w'ith other ' hasthepotent.ia'|tohand]elargequantitjesofurbanandenergynelated the specific parameters data on a tr.act basis and js also responsive to consi dered in this ana'lYsi s' -L32-

ated Changes 'i n 4.3.3 The App'li cat'ion of Scenani os to Compa re Ti me-Rel Urban Resjdential EnergY 'in a s'ing1e time ane Urban and nelated energy panameters at Point the insuffic.ienttopr"ojectchangejnurbanenergy. However, simul ation of appì'icatìon of a range of scenarios facilitates ns . tjme-related change in urban and nelated energy pa ramete

The three scenarios are simulated as follows:

(1) FastEnergyGr'owthorH.istor.icTrendsScenar.io:underthis by assum'ing that scenanio, urban energy parameters are established density, travel dj stance exj sting condit.ions of areal res'identì al tothecoreanclarealenef.gyconsumpt.ionejthencontinueatthe 'in the future. Therefone, the same level or jncnease substantially on h'istoric conditions as scenario assumes cont.inuation of ex'isting futuretrendsandreflectsljttlechange.inpresentlevelsofurban energy consumption and eff iciency' d nepresents a compnomise (2) A Modified Trencts scenario: th'is scenarìo val ues of urban energy def i ned for wh.i ch i s cl ose to a mi cl-range of Scenarioslandlll.Althoughthescenan.ioresu]tsjnlittle 'in assumes signìf icant change in f undamental change li festy'le, it urban energy system urban res.iclenti al energy consurnption and ef f ic'i encY.

(3) AsoftEnergyPathScenario:alongtermobject.iveofmax.imum urbanenergysystemeff.iciency'isassumeclandarealresident.ial ene].gyconsumpt.ionandotherparametersareanalysedw.ithr.espect totheirimpactonse]ecteclurbantr.actsoveranextencledtjme period(e.g.20-35years).Pr.ojectedvaluesare''backcast.'(ì.e. future clate to the proiected backwarcl in t'ime) from an assumed the magnìtude of present (e.g. 2021-1981). scenaflio iII inclicates changerequinedtopresenturbanresjclent.ialenengycond.itionsin -133-

order to achjeve long term obiectives of significant'ly increased j res j clenti al ener!ry eff i ciency and reduced res'ident al enengy consumpti on.

As indicated 'in Table 9 (p.124) , res'idential energy characteristics are compared uncler all of the scenarios" This includes values for selected tracts in real cities, as well as values for compact hypothetical j gnated citi es, desi gnated cM and decentral'ized hypothet cal c'iti es, desi DM. Residential characteristics in the table incorporate a numben of res.ident'ial energy components at the discnetion of households under each journey-to-wonk scenario. These include space and water heat as welì as energy to the cotê¡

energy Urban characteristics ane tabulated and potential residential (Tabìe For consumption and related energy components are compared 9)' example, at least ten possible urban chanacteristics are tabulated and levels of resident'ial energy consumption are companed for s'ixteen different tracts or areas 'in real and hypothetical cities.

In the next section, analysìs is done and results are presented for the three scenanios using a two- and three-dimensional format'

4.4 THE USE OF A THREE.DIMENSIONAL MATRIX TO COMPARE ENERGY CONDITIONS IN REAL CITIES ltllTH HYPOTHETICAL CITIES

Derived from mathematical model'ling, the matn'ix fonmat pr^ovides a urban areas three-dimens'ional framework of time-related data on selected clata on in real and hypothet'ical citi es. The format is used to compare chanacterist'ics such as residential densitìes, distances for jounney-to-work to the cone and resident'ial energy consumptjon for are selected unban areas. At the same tjme, these characterist'ics energy considened in terms of scenarios which simulate alternative f utures (F'igure 14) . FIGURE 14: THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX

WINNIPEG EDMONTON SASKATOOI{ DECENTRAL Cities COMPACT Hypotheticol Reol Reol Reol Hypotheticol I M I Trocl Type I M o M o I M o I M o o (, Þ Trocf Areo I

Residentiol Density

Urbon Trovel Dislonce

Residentiol Energy Consumption E F

Plane ABCD: Ci ti es/Scenari os Pl ane ADEF: Ci tì es/Characteri sti cs Plane DCFG: Scenari os/Characteri sti cs - 135 -

This sect'ion describes the three-dimensional framework of the matn'ix, considers its function and purpose, and explains its application in the ana]ys'is of urban nesidential development and energy parameters.

4"4"1 Descriptìon of the Matr^ix and'its Three-Dìmens'ional Format

The three-d'imensional matrix format provides an'important means to gr.aphìcaì ly d'isplay and compare characterìst'ic data for urban tnacts unden a variety of possible scenarios. The thnee-dimensional form of the matrix 'iS notional1y represented by a box w'ith three adjacent p1 anes , subdi vì ded i nto col umns and nows repnesenti ng fi fteen res'ident j al tnacts, six urban chanacten'isti cs and three energy f uture scenarios (Table 9 and Figure 14).

In the plane ADEF, selected real and hypothet'ical citìes and thei r respective tracts are I ì sted. Along the ax'is AiJ, the thnee types of tracts considered are Inner Core edge, desìgnated I; Mature Subunb, designated M; and 0uter Suburb or Fringe, designated 0. A]ong the axis AE, characteristic parameters are tabulated. These ìnclude: r.esiclential dens'ity, unban travel djstance, and resident'ial energy consumpt.ion. In the plane ABCD, the matrix is d'ivided'into fifteen c'ity sections and 45 tract sections. A]ong the axjs DC, these divisions tabulate the thnee alternate energy futunes or scenanios under which urban characteristics can be compared for each selected tnact. In the p'lane DCFG, the matrix is dividecl into three columns or 45 subsections. Th.is plane fac'ilitates comparison of characterìst'ics/parameters for any specì f .ic tract al ong the ax'i s AE, under al ternati ve scenari os al ong the ax'is DC.

Therefore, the three,:limensìons of the matn'ix facjl'itate othen s'imul taneous compari son of res'ident'ial energy consumpti on and characteristic parameters for each of the selected tracts under .' al ternati ve scenari os and for both real ancl hypothet'i cal c'iti es -136-

4.4.2 The PurPose of the Matrìx

Byjuxtaposingarangeofcharacteristjcsfromanumberofurban consumpt'ion over residenti aì tracts under vary'ing condìtions of energy of time, the matrix fac'ilitates jnvest'igation and comparison residential characteristic urban energy parameters. These include densìty,externa.lresidentia]energyforjourney.to-worktothecore' and hot water' Aìthough and jnternal resident'ial ener$/ for space heat processing of data from the matrix framework potential'ly can facilitate for demonstration a'large numbers of c'ities and their respect'ive tracts' energy condit'ions purposes, the numbers of tracts and urban residential .in ci ti es has been consi ctered thi s urban 1 aboratory of three i ntent'i onal lY 1 i m'i ted . ab'ility to In the context of alternat'ive energy scenarios, the a common framework'is describe a large number of urban conditjons within residentìal energy useful in considering policy ìmpìications of urban cit'ies' Also' the consumpt.ion and system efficiency for diffenent matr.ixapproach,notionally,permitscomparisonofgroupsofhouseho]ds among a large number of or areas wh'ich exhibit sìmilar energy panameters urban tracts for both real and hypothetical cities'

4.4.3TheAppìicationofaThree.DimensionalMatr.ixFormat

Inapply.ingthematrixformat,therelat.iVecompactnessor on a scale of density of urban resjdent'iaì tracts or areas ìs compared condi ti ons i n hypothet'i cal c'itì es I imi ts whi ch 'is establ i shed f rom cond'itìons in unban (Figure 14). In addition, age and related build'ing res.ident.ialtractsarecomparedamongcitiesofs.imjlarondiffenent per"'iods of nesidential size, and nepresenting significantly d'ifferent development.Comparisonisalsomadebetweeno]derandnewen res'ident'ial areas becomes residentjal tracts w'ith'in the cities. Age of .inpartasurrogateforbuildingcondition,inparticular,thethermal - 137 - insulat'ion. Age is also r"eflected in energy consumption of residentjal areas wi'thin cities, when areas are compared on a scale of distance to the central core fnom outen nesìdent'ial subut'bs.

Finally, the matrìx, in part'icular those charactenistics which relate to the axis DC, fac'ilitates comparison of time-related changes in residential energy parameters for unban tracts under different assumptions of futune energy nesounces and enengy system efficjencies.

4.5 SUMMARY

Thjs chapter establ i shed cond'it jons of the urban I aboratony, its devices and their 3ppf ication. Specifically, it neviewed the use and applìcatìon of three dev'ices: '(1) ur"ban models to establish unban energy limits; (2) scenarios to compare unban energy parameters 6ver time; and (3) a thnee-dimens'ional matnjx to compare energy characteristics in real and hypothetical cities and assess the impact of change on res'ident'ial energy.

The dev'ices were app'l'ied to the method outl'ined'in Chapter III in accordance wi th the fol'low'ing steps:

(1) relevant characten'istjcs of neal ìarge cìties, selected as an urban IaboratorY, were def ined;

(Z) hypothet.ical urban models and their related tracts were postulated, and real urban condit'ions of nesjdentìal compactness and enengy consumPtion were comPared ;

(3) three energy scenanios were postulated to s'imulate time-related changes .in resi dent'ial energy among sel ected c'iti es ; -138-

and assembl ed 'i n a ( 4) data f or va ri ous ch aracteri st'i cs were de ri ved three-dimensional mat¡ix format to compare urban energy conditions and relationships under alternate scena¡ios;

for (5) using a mat¡ix format, real and hypothetical data were compared different cities and tracts. The results wene then pnojected in terms of two- and three-dimensional relat'ionsh'ips of residential density, commuting distance from residential tracts to the city centre, and resident'ial energy consumption'

jn the These steps and the data which they generated ane applied method discussed in ChaPter V. CHAPTER Y APPLICATION OF THE METHOD

In this chapten, data which are developed and onganized in accordance with the steps outljned in Chapter III, Development and Organization of Data, ane used to illustnate application of the method. Several devices intnoduced and described 'in Chapter IV, Research Method, are appljed to prov'ide a shorthand for consideration of limited urban residential energy data.

The first sub-section identifies evidence generated by the reseanch and appf ies this neal and estimated data to ana'lys'is of selected residential enengy panameters in three large rea'l c'itjes. The second sub-sectjon investigates limits of res'idential conditions in the real cities usìng lìmits derived from conditions for hypothetical c'ities. The third sub-section applies scenanios of alternatìve energy futures to an'investigation of t'ime-related changes in nesidentjal enengy consumption. The founth sub-section uses the device of a three dimensional matrjx, which'is described in Chapten IV, to cons'ider changes in the panameters: internal resjdentjal enengy consumption, residential dens'ity, and energy fon jounney-to-work to the centnal core. The three-dimensional matrix format is also used to facilìtate comparison of res'idential energy characteristics among real cit'ies and urban residential tracts, with characteristics of hypothetical c'ities.

5.1 CONSIDERATION OF SELECTED RESIDENTIAL ENERGY RTLATED PARAMETERS IN REAL CITIES

Par-ameters of nes'idential enengy envi ronments are investigated fon a limjted number of neal c'ities. Data for thjs investjgation denives fnom two c'ities in the popu'lation range of 550,000 - 600'000 and a thi nd - 139 - -140- city w'ith a population in excess of 150,000. For these large cities' the fol 1 owi ng resi denti al energy rel ated parameter"s are consj dered:

(1) res'idential density;

(2) age and condition of residential development;

(3) urban size and compactness; and

(4) resident'ial energy consumption and enengy system effic'iency.

5"1.1 Residential Density

In an investigation of res'ident'ial dens'ity for urban tracts in selected cit'ies (Table 9, p.L24), neìationsh'ips focus on (1) changes 'in resident'ial enengy consumptjon w'ith resident'ial densìty, and (2) changes in residential density with tnavel d'istance from the central core to residentjal areas (Figune 13, p.L26). In Table 9 residential density data ane derived from the 1981 Census for each of the selected cities (Statjstìcs Canada 1982), and from residential enengy consumption data obta j ned f rom the energy uti I ities senvi ng these cìt'ies (Append'ix I I ) . W.ren these data are compared and modelled for comparab'le residential tracts'in each city, including'innen core edge tracts (l), mature subunban tracts (M), and outen subunban tracts (0)' relationsh'ips of 'indi resident j al densi ty and di stance f rom the centnal core are cated 'in F'igure 15. Fnom Fi gure 15 and Tabl e 9, the fol I ow'ing chanacteri stì cs are observed for the selected tracts:

(1) Residential density decreases w'ith distance from the core. Specif ical'ly, from selected inner core edge tracts to mature and j outer suburbs, residenti al dens'ities decrease w'ith d stance f nom the centre. -141-

FIGURE 15: THERELATIONSHIPBETÌ,JEENRESIDENTIALDTNSITYAND DISTANCE FOR CHARACTERISTIC TRACTS

5000

l¿lÉ t-- lrl T o J v 4000 trl& aJ an É + l¿l d ./, (5 z. ) 3000 J l¿J a= I I

F zat1 ÕLtJ J 2000 F z. o ÕlJJ + a/, LrJ o d. o + T ¡

1 000 Legend

I l,Ji nni peg o Saskatoon + Edmonton

3 6 9 t2

DISTANCE FROM CINTRAL CORE IN KILOMETRES -L42-

ght'ly f rom some (Z) In 14i nnì peg, outer suburban densiti es incnease s'li olden suburban tracts to newer tracts at the'outer suburban fringe. This can be explained in part by a higher pnopot'tion of multip'le dwe'l1ing types v,Jhich are developed 'in newer growth areas near the outer unban fringe.

(3) Residential densities for inner core tracts in large citjes are greaten than residential densities for outer subunban tnacts. This corresponds with findings of Clark (1951) and New'ling (1969) on the relationship of urban popu'lation density to distance fnom the core 'in larger cìties.

(4) In inner core edge and mature suburbs of lllÍnnipeg and Edmonton' residential densities ane higher than in conresponding tracts in Saskatoon. This is due, in part, to a greaten mix of non-residential land uses and to less nesidential redevelopment 'in the selected inner core tract (008) in Saskatoon'

Further consideration of these characteristics also 'indicates a cons'istent d'iffenence between relative values of density for hJjnnipeg, Saskatoon, and Edmonton. This difference jn residential density for the three c'ities ìs exp'lained by

multipìe (i ) a greater mix of older and less well-insulated units and residentjal dwelling conversions in the selected jn older mature llJinnipeg tr act (017) than in similar tracts newer cities, such as Edmonton tract (048) or Saskatoon tract (015); and

(i'i) smallen and narrower lots ìn older mature Winnipeg tracts jn than in counterpart areas jn the newer cit'ies, reflected part, jn higher tract density'in the olden w'innipeg tract. -143-

5.!.2 Age and Condition of Residential Development

In thjs app'lication of a method of handling energy data, an important issue which is considered the nelationship between age and condition of dwellings and res'idential energy density. In Table 10, data are pnesented which compare the parameters, pencent of dwellings in need of repair (major and minon), and percent of dwel'l'ings over 40 years, with internal residential energy consumption fon each tract. In Figure 16, the percent of dwellings in need of repair is compared with residential ener$/ consumption, and data are plotted as a scattengram. In Figure 17, a similar comparison is made between age of dwell'ings in various tnacts, and residential energJ/ consumption, and a scattergram 'is also pnoducedo

Although the evidence for the three cities is limited, in most i nstances data i ndi cate h'igh energy consumption fon resi dent'ial tracts wh'ich contain a large proportion of older s'ing1e detached dwel'lings and/or apartments. Notwithstanding cìimatic differences among Winnipeg' Saskatoon and Edmonton (Tabìe 3, P"27), which result in some vanjations in resident'ial energy consumption among tracts in the vanious cities' parameters such as cond'itìon of dwelling and age of tracts are more important. For example, when data for selected residentjal tnacts are pìotted in a scattengnam wh'ich correlates numbers of dwellings in need of repair with resident'ial enengy consumpt'ion (Figure 16)''inner city tracts in Winnipeg not on'ly contajn a larger propont'ion of dwellings in need of nepair, but also consume significant'ly gneater resìdential enengy. By compa¡ison, Edmonton, a neù.Jen c'ity, ref lects I ower nes'identi al energy consumpti on 'in i ts conrespondi ng ì nner ci ty tracts .

Because Edmonton is a warmer city than l¡linnipeg (Table 3) selected tracts in Edmonton can be expected to and do consume less residentjal energy than counterpart tnacts in the colder Manitoba city (Table 13, p.l58) . Howeverin comparing Edmonton with Saskatoon, wh'ich -144-

TABLE 10: CSPARISON ffi AGE AND COÌ\ÐITION tr DbELLIIü I}IITS "IRACI.S AND ENERGY COT'SLI4PTIû'I FOR SELECTED

TRACT BLDG. PERCENI DU's* PERCENT DU's E{ERGY CITY N0. 201,8 IENSITY >40 YRS NETD REPAIR COI{SU4PTION TJ/Ñ

.014 I 4306 % n 581

017 M ßæ 81 4L 52r MIü.IIPEG .535 0 1164 6 26 178

.540.02 0 1335 3 16 m

0ß I 1517 6 16 2M

.015 M 1760 42 24 174 SASKATMN .010 M 1242 å 31 165

.018.02 0 988 M: 7 M

032 i 3726 9 7 n0

048 M TÆ2 32 2 n5 Et}ONTON .08 0 rzn 5 36 145

006.05 0 Tre6 M: M M:

(1981). Source: Census of Canada, 1981 and urban gæ util'ity conswptjon data

* D¡elìing lJtìts are abbrev'l ated DU's -145-

FIGURE 16: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CONDITION OF DWELLINGS

lrlÉ 900 ]-- IJ O =J J 800 l-Llú =g tJ1 æ 700 è¡JJ at1 l¡J J ¿ 600 OÞ r(014) &. t-IJ r(017) I 500 o l- ô- = ./) 400 z, O(-)

(5 +( 032 ) É l¿J 300 z ( l¿l o ooB) ( J t 540 .02 ) +(048) F z. 200 ôl¡J t(535) Legend o(015)o tt1 010 l¿, ) I W.i nni peg É + 025) o Saskatoon J 100 ) + Eclmonton (000) Tract Numben

20 40 60 80 100 r20

PERCENT OF DWTLLINGS IN NEED OF REPAIRS -146-

FIGURE 17: THE RTLATIONSHIP BETWEEN RESIDTNTIAL ENTRGY CONSUMPTION AND AGE OF DWELLINGS

900 l¡J d. F- IJJ = oJ :¿ 800 LrJ &, r(014) ¿ d a,t1 & 700 l¿J ô- r(017 ) q, Ju.J O 600 l!É. l-

¡ 500 o t-- ô- = tlt 400 O(J (5 +(032) É t¡Jz 300 tr¡ J o(008) r( +(048) t- 540.02 ) 7 200 UJo r(535) o(015) Legend t!an o(010) æ. +(025) r Wi nni peg J 100 o Saskatoon = + Edmonton (000) Tract Number

20 40 60 B0 100 I20

AGE OF Dt,lELLINGS - PERCTNT >40 YEARS -I47 - is also a colder. city, the selected Edmonton tracts are consistently l owelin energl consumption than counterpart tracts i n Saskatoon" Ther.efone, climate is not consistent in its'impact on residential energy consumption in the three selected cities. A possible explanation for this variation may be that climate is ìess important than othen factors in influencing residential energy consumption. Another exp'lanation may be variat'ions in cl'imatic conditions among the c'ities for a specific year (1981) compared to a multiyear period (Table 3, P.27).

In F'igures 16 and 17, scattergrams indicate a correlation between the parameters age of nes'idential area and nesidential enengy consumption (Figure 17), and the parameters pencent of dwelìings in need of repa'ir and residenti al eners¡y consumption (Fi gune 16) . For example, Winnipeg tracts indicate significantly higher residential densities than tracts in Edmonton and Saskatoon. Also, older areas in the newer cities, such as tracts 032,048 and 008 in Edmonton and Saskatoon' are greate¡in terms of residential energy consumption and age of dwelling, than ane neuren res'idential areas such as tnacts 015,010 and 025, in the

s ame two ci t'i es . d

5.1.3 Urban Size and ComPactness

Among the three cities, differences in urban size and residential densìty provide an opportunity to consider size and compactness aS parameters of residential ene¡gy consumption. Data for tracts and res.identjal densities are denived from census metropolitan aneas (CMA's) in the 1981 Census (Statistjcs canada 1982), and fnom 1981 municipal boundaries for the three selected cities (Tabìe 11)'

Using these data, size is plotted and companed wjth nesjdentjal density and popu'lat'ion density for each c'ity (Figures 18 and 19). From these data, a relat'ionship emenges between the parameters urban s'ize and res.idential energy consumption for the three cities. It ind'icates that -148-

in 1981: (1) Saskatoon had the lowest gross residential density, and Edmonton the highest in absolute termsi (2) Winnipeg was less "residentially compact than Edmonton (Fìgure 17) and; (3) available data on gross residential density and energy consumption were not sufficient to establish a definitive relationship between urban size and residential energy density for the areas of the three cities*,

TABLE 11: COMPARISON OF POPULATION AND RESTDTNTIAL DENSITY IN THREE SELECTED CITIES

1981 Census Popu'lati on Popul ati on Numbe r Area Dens i tv Dens ì ty Ci ty (Municipal Limits) Househol ds km2 PP km2** dus/km¿

l,Ji nni peg 544,949 205,420 411 t326 500

Saskatoon 154,210 57 ,340 t22 1264 470

Edmonton 517 ,331 16 3,870 285 1815 544

** Persons pen square kilometre and dwel'lings pen square kilometne, respecti vely, are abbrev'iated pp km2 and dus/km2.

Higher average density for tdmonton compared with Winnipeg indicates, that Edmonton's greater compactness in 198i was 'in part institutional; that is, it was due to man-made planning constraints designed to ensure compact urban growth and development***. Converse'ly, l.linnipeg's lower population and densities relative to Edmonton reflect the large areas of undeve'loped subunban land with'in the 1981 boundanies of the olden and hjstorical'ly slower gnowth Manitoba city.

A significance of urban compactness for residential enengy consumption is its effect on travel distance to the core. Fon examp'le, * Value for gross energy consumption for an entine city was only provided by l,linnipeg's utiìity agency.

*** The annexation of large areas of rural land to the City of .the Al ef ve Januar.Y 1, 1982 Edmonton by Provj nce of benta, fecti ' significantly reduced the relative compactness of the City of Edmonton whìch had existed at the time of the 1981 Census. - 149 -

FIGURE 18: URBAN POPULATION AND SIZE - THREE CITIES

SJ Legend v. 1800 + r t,li nn'ipeg z.a.f, O o Saskatoon a/, + Edmonton æ. t¿J o- 1 500 I r O o F 1 200 J oÀ ô-

1 000 100 200 300 400 500

SIZE IN SQUARE KILOMETRES

FIGURE 19: RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND SIZE - THRTE CITIES

550 +

SJ =S¿ tn F <*b I

t- 500 I at1 t! a J Legend F t! ô o I t^linnipeg tt1 o Saskatoon t! d + Edmonton

450 100 200 300 400 500

SIZE IN SQUARE KILOMETRES -150- if it is assumed that the selected cities are all circular, then for the aneas given in Table 11, llinnipeg, Saskatoon, and Edmonton would have unadjusted r"adii (Dc) of 1I.4,6"2 and 9.5 k'ilometres, respectiveìy, and adjusted radii of 2I.3, 13.4 and 18.4 kilometres, respectively, whene adjusted distance is La = 4 + 1.52 Dc. Therefore' an average trip to the core fnom the outer fringe of Saskatoon represents 54 and 65 pencent of the unadjusted trip distance from the outer fringe to the core for l,linnipeg and tdmonton, respectiveìy. Using adjusted distance values, Saskatoon's radial distance to the cone represents 61 and 72 percent of the respective adjusted distances for l,linn'ipeg and Edmonton. As will be shown in sections 5.2.1 and 5.3.5, Saskatoon's shorter radìal djstance to the core is ultimately reflected jn lower enengy consumption for shorter iourney-to-work travel distance to the core.

5.1.4 Residential Energy Consumption and Energy System Efficiency

In this subsection, parameters of resident'ial energ¡/ consumption and energy system efficiency are investigated. These include: (1) the proport'ion of energy consumed by each component of res'ident i al demand ; (Z) the system effic'iency of specific components of resjdentjal energy; and (3) total energy system efficiency of urban households.

5.1.4.1 Components of Res'idential Energy Demand. In this i nvesti gati on, urban resi denti al enengy i nvol ves two majon components: (1) residential energy consumpt'ion internal to households; and (2) transport energy for nes'idential purposes; that is, trave'l energy which is required to pr.ov'ide dai'ly access to a workp'lace from a residence and retu rn.

(1) Mone than 80 pencent of jnternal residential energy repnesents space conditioning and water heat. Most of this household energy most is nequ'ired fon use at low temperatures. Fon example, space heat at less than 100oC comprises in excess of 60 percent of internal -151- res.idential energly, and water heat, most of whieh is used at l'ittle more than 40oC, comprises an additional 20 pencent (CMHC L977 Fowler 1984). The residual 20 percent of internal residential energy represents h'igh temperatune or high quatity enengy such as electnicity for refrigeration, cooking, li ghting and powening various appìiances ' To the extent that in fossil fuel dependent regions much of this is inefficiently produced thenmoelectric'ity, electrical energy pnoduction and distribution suggests an important anea jn whjch to improve enengy efficiencY.

(Z) When total energy demand'is analysed by economic sectons, the residential-commercial sector component comprìses appnoximate'ly 36 percent and the transport sector approx'imately 25 pe¡cent of this total. The propontion of tnansport energy wh'ich reflects in part residential-commencial consumption is slightìy oven 50 pencent of the total for alì transport purposes or appnoximately 13 percent of all energy consumed. This includes both private automobile and tnansit energy. 0f this total, residential energy for jounney-to-work comprises 43 percent of all traveì trips or approx'imately 6 pencent of total tnansport energy (Tnansport canada 1979). l,lith work trips to the core represent'ing approximateìy 35 percent of total iourney-to-work travel' this aspect of nesidential transportation is in the orden of 2 pencent 'is of total transport energy. when this "external" component added to the 'internal residential/commercial components of space and waten heat' or approximately 29 percent, total residentìal energy consumptìon represents in the order of 31 percent'

j The 5.!.4.2 System Ef f i cienci es of Res dent'ia1 Enengy Components. three components of residential/commercial energy in this investigatìon' For al so repnesent di f fenent clegrees of energy system ef f i c'iency' and buses example, considering that the system efficiency of automobiles is in the range of 5-10 percent under dry noad cond'itions, a conservative figure of 5 percent'is used for transport system effic'iency (Cook 1976). -t52-

In urban dwellings, nes'idential heating pìants (primanily gas furnaces), range 'in efficiency fnom 45-72 percent (Cook I976; and Fowler 1gB3). Anothen source has suggested 63 percent as a reasonable figune (CMHC Lg77). Also, w'ithin this nange, system efficiency for gas fined water heat is in the order of 56 percent (Cook 1976).

5.1.4.3 System Efficiency of Urban Households. The total system 'is eff j ci ency of r^esi dent j al energy consumption by urban househol ds nepresented by the sum of the product of each residential energy 'if component and its respective device efficiency. Fon example, furnaces and automobile eng'ines represent heating dev'ices for specific components of resjdentjal energy, the follow'ing tabìe illustnates a method of determ'ining system effjciency of urban households:

TAb]C 12: ENERGY SYSTEM EFFICIENCY OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS

Proport'ion App roxi mate Resìdentìal Ene rgy of Total Devl'ce System Component Res i denti al Effi ci ency Ef f i c'iency Enengy

.38 Space Heat "60 .63 Water Heat .20 .56 .11 .001 Jou rney-to- Wo rk .02 .05 Energy to Core

Total .49

Therefore, 49 percent represents a conservative base level for energy system effjciency in urban households. Table 12 indjcates that although the thr^ee residential energy components are all substjtutable either by mor"e efficient energy sources or systems, including changes in the proportjon of total resident'ial energy consumed and/or the ¡elative effic'iency of enengy convensjon dev'ices used for residential purposes -153-

(e.g. vehicle engìnes or furnaces), the transport enengy component'is not large enough under current (inefficìent) conditions to appreciab'ly affect residential system efficiency. Houever, if the relative proportions of enengy for space conditioning and transpont shift in favour of increased tnansport ener^gy, and if device effic'iencies increase substantially for residential transport alternatives, res'idential transport energy could jnfluence resjdential system effi ciency more si gnifi cantìY.

5.2 CONSIDERATION OF URBAN PARAMETERS IN REAL CITIES USING LIMITS FOR HYPOTHETICAL CITIES

In an investjgatìon of energy consumption in residential areas of real cities, it is essential to establish practicaì lim'its for unban parameters . In thi s subsect'ion, l'imi ts f or hypothet'ical ci ti es ane used to jdentify, investigate and compare unban nesident'ial parameters in real cities.

5.2.I Lim'iting Values of Real Urban Condit'ions

Under normal urban conditions in real cìties' res'idential l'im'its fall with.in certain values for the parameters residentjal density' t ravel di stance f or j ou nney-to-wo rk to the co re and res'ident'i al energy consumption fon both compact and decentralized city tnacts' Thjs subsect'ion considens these limits. jes S.2.1.1 Ljm.its of Residential DensÍty. In lange rea'l cit there i s a scal e wi cle range of nes j denti al dens'iti es. At the upper end of the ' some'in southeast Asia may exceed 75,000 dwell'ings per square kilometne (Dantz.ig and Saaty 1973) . In Ch'icago, mi xed res'identi al and commer"ci al per highri se devel opments w'ith densities jn excess of 71,000 dwel'lìngs square kilometre were built in the late 1950's. In the central Manhattan area of New Yonk City, luxury resjdential redevelopment projects on entir.e blocks nesulted'in res'iclent'ial densities'in the order -154- of 48,000 dwellings pen squane kilometre (Meyerson 1963). Howeven, for the city as a whole, avenage residential densities are considenably lower, or in the order of 14,000 dwellings per square kilometre (Dantzig and Saaty 1973). This lower figure also allows fon other non-residential land uses including streets' roads and pubìic open space.

In colrter places, such as Canadian cities' a number of hìgh density mixed commercial/residential proiects have been proiected or developed in the past several decades. One of these, Proiect la Concorde, a 14.8 hectare redevelopment at the edge of the downtown core of Montreal, pnoposed in the mid 1960's, was to have in excess of 56,000 dwellings per square kilometre. subsequentìy, it was 'implemented in a scaled down version at a reduced density. In Edmonton in 1980, a mixed commercjal/res'idential nedevelopment for the downtown'core was approved 'in principle with a density exceeding 40,000 dwe'llings per square kilometre, ìnc'ludìng a lange commercial netai'l component within the compìex.

In this investigation, a much lower limit of maximum residential density is assumed. In part, this is because large urban areas usua'lìy support lower residential dens'ities than ane developed on individual sjtes. Another reason for assuming a mone modest residential dens'ity ìs that ener.gy consumption i.ncneases appneciabìy at higher residential densities (Keyes 1978). Consequent'ly, at the uppen limit of the res.idential density sca'le, conservat'ive values ane assumed for a compact hypothet i ca'l cì tY.

At the low end of the densjty spectrum, potentiaì l'imits are more constra.inecl. In pant, thìs reflects concenns w'ith the diseconomies of servicing ìow density unban development and an increased understanding of the total costs of such senvices (Pearson L967; Real Estate Reseanch Corporation 1974). In Table 11 (p.1a8), the three selected cities had densjties rangìng from 470-544 dwel lings per" square kilometre' At an -155- aver.age clens'ity of 505 clwel ì'ings per squa¡e ki I ometre fo¡ the three cjtiei, thjs low end limit was appnoximate'ly 15 per^cent highen than the figune of 408 dwellings per square kilometne for a compact decentralized cìty proposed by Goodman (1977). Hypothet'ical c'ities with even lower residentìal densities have been suggested. In 1935, fon example, Broadacnes City, a decentralized low density ur^ban model , was pr^oposed' Situated wjthjn the p1aìns neg'ion of the Un'ited States, this hypothetìcal city had a resjdential density in the order of 135 dwellings per square kilometne (tlJright 1935; Ciucci et al 1983)' jn Summarizing clens'ity limits, a res'ident'ial dens'ity spectrum the range of 130-16,000 dwellings per square kilometre'is assumed to be possible for hypothetical cities. However, for real cities under the three suggested scenarios, more conServative uppen and lower l'imits of nesidentìal tract density in the range of 1000-10,000 dwellings per square kilometre are assumecl. For example, under scenario I, res.identìal tract dens'ities 'in the selected cities range f rom mone than dwel ì ì ngs per square 1000 dwel 1 i ngs pef" square kjl ometre (e.g. 1063 k'ilometre) to less than 4500 dwell'ings per square kilometre (e'g' 4306 clus/km2). Unden Scenanio III, res'iclent'ial tract densitie-s ane assumed to range f rom 1500 to 10,000 dwel'l'ings per square k'il ometre.

g.Z,I.Z Ljmits of Travel Distance and Related Energy Consumpt'ion. 'line Although str-aight (unadiusted) tnavel djstance from the outer suburban frìnge to the downtown cone fon large western canad'ian cities .i j 'i j 6-L2 I ke Edmonton , saskatoon and w'inn peg s w'ith n a range of kjlometres, for Edmonton and Winnìpeg it'is closer to the upper limit' Canadian From typical nesiclentjal tracts to the centnal core for ìarge c'ities, "adjusted" travel distance ranges from 3'6 kiIometres to more than 1B kilometres for selectecl cjtjes (Transport Canacla 1979). Fot" winnìpeg, Edmonton and saskatoon, inner core edge tracts are located within a 0.5-2.5 k'ilometre zone of the core; mature suburbs are generally located with'in a 1.5-5.0 kjlometre zone; and outer suburbs are in a zone of 3.0-I2.0 kilometres' -156-

For hypotheti cal ci t'ies, traveì di stance l'imi ts f or journey-to-work to the central core ane greater than distance limits for real cit'ies. In effect, urban models are constrajned only by practical I jmits of travel tine and the techno'logy nequi rements of possib'le mob'iì ity systems. For exampìe, in a hypothetical compact c'ity, unadjusted journey-to-work distance D6 is assumed to range from 0.8-1.6 kilometres (Appendix 1, Plate 3, p.228)" Although for a hypothetical decentralized city, assumed in this investigat'ion, unadjusted distance ranges from 9.8-19.9 kilometres (Goodman t977), values as high as 64 kjlometres have been suggested for commuting distances to majntain low density lifestyles (l,lright 1954). A maximum adjusted commutìng distance to the central core for a decentralized city is assumed to be in the ran ge .of 4 . 5- 33 .5 k'i I omet res .

The sjgnìficance of travel distance on nesidential energy consumption js its affect on household transport energy,'in partjcular fon jounney-to-wor.k or other regular travel to the central core- Since most jour^ney-to-work trips are automobi le-oriented, ener!¡y consumption Iimits for th'is transport mode are important. For typica'l North American automob'iles, f'leet average consumption has been pnojected to be .in the order of 10 kilometres per ljter for 1985 (Canada, EMR 1977). At 'liter 32.1 megajoules per of fuel th'is tnanslates into approximatel y 3.2 megajoules per kilometre. It has also been indicated that much highen efficiencjes for automobile fuel consumpt'ion would be feasib'le by 1982. For example, one analysis suggested energy level targets as low as 0'8 megajoules per kilometre (Handing et al 1982)'

Although under the efficient urban energy condit'ions in hypothetìca'l c'ities, hìgh levels of transport efficjency af"e achjevable' under scenario III in this invest'igation,26 kilometres per fiter or practìca] approx.imately 1.2 megaioules pen kjlometre is assumed to be a -L57 - consumption level for nesidentiaì tr^ansport energy. Under Scenarios I and II, more consenvative levels of transport consumption are assumed. For example, when account is taken of efficiency losses due to cold starts,'longer idling for warmups and short driving d'istances for urban trips, l.imits for residential transport vehicule energl)/ consumption ane assumed to be in the range.of 2.0-5.0 megajoules per kilometre under Scenan'io I; 1.4-3.4 megajoules per kilometre under Scenario II; and 0.8-1.4 megajoules per kilometre under Scenanio III'

Although less significant in its impact on residential enengy consumption than the automobile, urban transit plays an'important secondary roìe'in journey-to-work energv, in particu'lar, for work trips to and from the central core. For urban transit energy, aPProximately 1.2 megajoules per kilometre'is assumed to be a conservative, yet practicaì level . consequent'ly, trans'it enengy consumption limits are narrower. For example, because transit vehicìes openate continuousìy w'ith engi nes at optimum temperatu res , desp'ite thei r start -stop movements, surface t¡ansit energy consumpt'ion js assumed to range from a high of 2.3 megajoules per kilometne unden Scenario I, to a low of 1'0 megajoules per kilometne under Scenario III. Howeven, notwithstanding the potential incneases in energy efficiencies fon urban transpont journey-to-wonk systems which ane possible under various scenarios, trans'it energy as a proportion of tstal residential energy is small'

5.2.1"3 Lim.its of Total Residential Energy Conservat'ion. A]though limits of total residential enengy consumption reflect a combinat'ion of components fon residential transport and internal nesidential enengy' on'ly the energy component for jounney-to-work to the cone is included in this 'investigation (Tabìes 13-15). For examp'le, in Table 13, Rows 5' under Scenario I, 'internal residential energy for selected real cities per ranges from a low of 89 to a high of 196 gigajouìes per household yean. If an assumed value of 100 gigaioules pe¡ year is added to this range of values for internal resjdent'ial energy for transport energy (Hard'ing et a'l 1982), then the assumed ljmits for total res'ident'ial TB..E 15: 1Sl DAIA BASE lN T€ ñ-A¡\E ÆfF FCR A ff,EEÐlltÐ\SlCh¡ô¡- MARIX - $B{aRtO I

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(I ) R¡CTAFM 0.7 k# 0.6 1.4 t.t 1.2 1.1 t.t "9 2.1 2.1 1.0 1.0 t.0 to lo t.0 (2) @CSS FESICE\¡TIÁL IEÌ6ITY il,C,¿{rÊ I I I tm ,m 15@ 15m l0@ 2m 1m 3m m 1ru l6m 12m fffn 4942 n3 fr

(5) (S.H.) SFFCE f'EAT B,mÊr/U-t/Y GYY I I I Æ 76 57 6 2 n 45 62 õ 51 x n æ ø b E (4) M]ER t-F,qT fl.t-t) ElgGl/ül/Y GW I I I t9 52 Â n l5 2 n n n 2 t5 15 15 15 l5 t5

(5) Or SB ÐTL El.æY/U.l/l GYY I I I 65 t6 8E { 4t 74 TI 89 Ð 73 % % 5 n ¡0 il0 o (6) RAVE_ D|STùCE T0 CIFE km 3.6 7.1 lal 18.r +2 7.1 lat t.3 4.1 7.2 3.7 5.9 6.4 4.5 24.6 5.5 (7) "0.RiËY-Þ|ttfiK Elær O\S./UI/Y GJNYI I I I 2.7 3.8 5.6 4F5 3.C 4"9 4.4 2.9 3.2 2.9 1.9 2.6 3"7 2.8 8.t 10.9 (8) Ð\EreY/üJlllC. "ûFf€l-ÞlltGK ûmf/ü/f cwyf I I I 68 112 94 1æ 51 79 8ñ 92 q æ T 38 ¿0 6 € 5l

(9) (sP¡cE 'rJtu#fi EÌ,æ. O\s/lqr¿lf I{AT¡¡\D t¡AB tF¡T) I I I 6fr 524 læ 15 4tc liA l9 61 tæ llc 6il 472 %7 242 1ú M

(lO) ENreY O\S,l"mchyk#/r TJ/#A I I I 6.3 3.3 2.8 z7 &l 2.6 5.1 2.0 1.9 ¿.1 10.6 10.9 8.4 t.t t.t t"0 OGI€I-ITVIRK Ð }EGE

(ll) 'u/k< þ14- EMreY 0\S.t"PnChUkr?^ I I I 6% llr tJ8 478 151 142 n 182 112 62 w 775 245 1S/ 210 sH., ìfJ+t. AÐ J.-Þt¡(. INGE 'Zt

LEGEM Slm = nqþr æntral rye cr @re ¿r,Et T.C. = tur erhe æ cm=coÞætnoèl lntÐ = Inlwædlaþ zøe a f lrger aeo DG = dlslrlcÈ ærhe ¿rea dm=dlspersedrcél hb = o.rher ãÞ cr rå aea R.C. = r€lcnal ørlre æa -161- energy for selected cities increase, from a nange of 86-196 gigajouìes to appnoximately 186-296 gigajou'les per dwelling per year.

Energy for journey-to-work to the core repnesents only a small proportion of 100 gigaioules per dwelling per year assumed for all residential transport energy. In Sect'ion 5"1.4, ìt was establjshed that core oriented residential work trips represented approximately 6 percent of total residential transport energy. Therefore' an assumed base figure of approximately 100 gigaioules pen dwelling per year repnesents approximately 6 gigajoules per dwellìng per year for eners¡y consumption for journey-to-work for an average household.

From Table 13, under Scenario I, the limits of total residential enengy consumptìon for selected neal cities, including energ/ for journey-to-work to the core, represent a range of approximatel y 96-206 gigajoules per dwelling per year. By comparison, unden Scenario III the 'l'ing range of i nternal res'identi al eneng¡/ i s 47-108 gi gajoul es per dwe'l per. year for selected neal cities, and 51-112 gigajou'les per dwel'l'ing per yean for total nesidential enengy consumpt'ion.

Internal nesidential energy consumpt'ion can be neduced funthen. Fon example, a base figure of close to 36 gigaioules per" dwel'ling per year f on i ntennal res'identi al energy has been i ndi cated to be ach'ievable*. Consequentìy, if the minimum value fon internal energy consumptìon ìs assumed to be 36 gigajoules pen dwellìng per year and the transport component is 6 gigaiouìes per dwelling per" year' the minimum range of total res i dent i al enengy consumpt'ion becomes 42-118 g'i ga joul es pen dwelìing per year (Table 15).

* In the late 1970's, the Saskatchewan Consenvation House demonstrated that an 'internal res'identi al consump t'ion level as low as 36.2 gigaioules pen household per yean was ach'ievable for a "l aboratory" dwel l'ing unit (Besant, Dumont and Schoenau 19BZ). -L62-

5.2.2 Comparison of Limjts for Real and Hypothetical Cities

From limits for residential dens'ity, journey-to-work distance to the core and energy consumption, which are considered in section 5'2'L, a scale of expected real and hypothetjcal conditions is generated under alternative scenar.ios. From these data and from Figure 13, limit'ing values for nes'identjal areas in real cities fall wìthin a narrower nange than values for hypothetical c'ities. For example, while nesidential densities for hypothetical cìtìes are assumed to range from approx'irnately 100-16,000 dwellings per square kìlometne, reSìdential densjties for real cities fall w'ithin a range of 1000-10,000 dweììings per square kilometre.

The purpose of such limits is to'identify a range of densities withjn which residential energy efficiency can be significantly impnoved in large cjties. For example, in fossil fuel dependent cìties significant increases in residential energy effjciency can be achieved where dens j ti es are suf f i c'ient to economi caì ]y di stri bute thermal energy. Therefore, in such cìties density limits ane useful in For del i neat.ing real i sti c panametens for enef'gy di stribution systems. example, 'in Edmonton and Saskatoon, which ane heavì1y dependent on ther.moelectric enengy, and where thermal enengy distribution is (shi nye'i 1978) techn.ica'lly feasible for higher dens'ity aneas ' approx'imatel y 1740 dwellings per Square kilometre appeans to be a pnact.ica1 m.inimum density for such thermal distributìon (Dan'ish Board of D'istnict Heating 1977).

For resjdentjal dens'ity, under less effìcient condit'ions of per scenario I, resident'ial consumption levels as low as 112 teraiouìes square kilometre per year, and as high as 842 teraioules per squaf'e kilometre per year are poss'ible for hypotheticaì citìes" Howeven' for real cities, vaìues in the nange of 150-660 teraioules per square kilometre provide practica] ljmits for nesÍdential energy consumptìon under Scenari os I-I I I ( Tabl e 16) ' ?B-E 16: ASS-!,Ð 40 lËAR mn BASE lN lE H,AI,E Xrr Rn A TFEÐlfE,lSlChlôL MARIX - AtL SCE\¡¡R|C6

CAffiY FECI- CIïES I.ftæT€ÏC¡L MIES

ctlY Mt"E CR O-ASSIFICATIO,¡ i,ilNt'ilFEG EþfNN{ SASfiUN ûl'1rÆï TEE.¡RA-IÐ

RACTfO. CR tE$lm(N o4 út7 5Ð w.@ o32 048 Ø ffi ot5 0[0 ÐlrB lûl'r lÈb trn Gn. D¡sl.Gnl¡e bg.HFe

RACT ÏFE wtrs I M o o I M o M o lon t'ltt q:m l6¡ I'bn qt

(I ) NACTAFEA KR 0.67 o60 1.t t.@ 1.24 t.æ 1.@ .88 2.Ot LOl 1.0 't"æ l.o t.m l.o r.æ

u,6¡",? 4fr tr)B 1164 1ffi trß 1râ 1D 1517 l6 QA lM 9515 4142 lgr L 9. e) eC6S RESIDtr'ffi,CL IEI\SITY I 71fr ffi 15j3. l4t8 661 17g, t^, Ø 1rl2 $n t4m 1668 5t¿t % 141 l4l ll lm ro 150 1ru tm 2m tm lm æ 1ru t6m tm 65@ w. nt 93 CI/{VY t04 t5r 1 l3 I 6 6 103 æ 1D 1Á 192 ,10 45 50 æ æ Ð ß) 9¡CE I'EAT (S.l-t) l-S¡{.D. B\$CYÆU/Y I 61 tæ 76 84 44 6 60 æ u 68 n 5 40 45 45 45 ll 6 76 n 6 2 fr 45 62 æ 5t æ à n ø Þ D GJÆI.I/Y JI 45 ,0 9 æ 3t æ 38 38 5 b z æ Ð s 3 (4) I¡IA'IH I-EAT (W.H.) l'E¡-fD. B,ffiY/üt/Y I 23 9 34 fi 17 n x 53 55 n 8 Z z Þ D D il t9 u æ n 15 n 32 n n 2 15 15 15 15 15 15 G!D]/Y t5 1% 153 16 & 1v 118 161 1& 15 6 rc 70 l@ 1æ læ Or (¡) (5) gßÊÐFL l{l{.0. E]tBÊr/trfY I &t l9 110 117 6t % q fi5 117 ø n 55 53 æ n æ I il 65 1G 6 s 47 74 n æ s 73 5 b 5 N ¡10 40 2a (6) RAVE- DIS?TG D CTFE km 3.6 7.1 13.3 18.1 4.2 7.1 1t.t 4.1 7.2 3.7 5.9 6.4 4.5 24.6 55.5 (7) .Ixfit€r-ÞìffK Eær/O\eô,l/Y CJÆ')N 7.8 lac 4.5 r8.6 &9 10.8 fôl 8.0 8.8 9.7 5.1 6.8 9.7 12.4 D.2 v.4 I 5.3 8.0 12.3 9.8 5.9 6.8 9.6 5"7 6.5 5.7 3.5 4"7 5.1 7.7 17.0 El il 2.1 3.8 5.6 4.5 5.C 4.9 4.4 2"9 5.2 2.9 t.9 2.6 3.1 2.8 8.1 10.9 (8) B\ffiY¡ù,l/ll0. "OFr€f-Þl,,tFl9D14 srD/r 144 æ 1V5 184 ø 145 131 16 173 t43 æ n Ð 112 lE tv 89 147 12 127 61 l0l 9t l 124 101 ,4 5B æ 78 8t % 68 ll2 94 to 51 79 6 I 94 78 t 9 9 43 Æ 51 (S.H. 'lJ¡kén (9) EI'FG. O\6/

6.3 3.3 2.8 2.7 8.1 2.6 1.1 2.C 1.9 2.2 r0.6 10.9 8.4 1.1 1 .1 1.0 (l l ) ÐDL E}Eref G\Et"f'n O.W#I rJ/l(l#îr gi 531 t6 n ffi AO 151 248 179 l6 u2 Tl9 170 112 ln $H., W.l-t, ¡¡\D J. ÐlK. INGE 612 4æ 112 17t 4X 16 l4l m 192 t4l 762 6úC 5n'D 188 lD 141 ffi vl l5t 158 4iB 151 142 ru l& 112 62 Æ3 2D 245 It/ AO -L64-

5.3 THE USE OF SCENARIOS TO CONSIDER LONG TERM CHANGE TN RTSIDENTIAL ENTRGY PARAMITERS

As described in Chapter IV, scenarios prov'ide a means to compane change in residential enengy for lange cities based on alternative assumpt'ions about accommodating future residential growth with'in new or existing urban aneas. In the absence of extensive time-senies data on enengy consumption for real cities, scenanios provide an oppot'tunity to considen alternative possibilities taking into account limjts established fon hypothetical cities.

Fon a 40 year time frame, three scenarios ane assumed to compare changes in energy consumption and the effect of alternative unban devel opment po1 i ci eS on such changes. The fol I owi ng subsections consider (1) derivation of data and applicatjon of three scenarios; (2) characterist'ics of neal and hypothet'ical cities; and (3) two dimensional relationships of parameters in the three-djmensional matrix under the three scenarìos.

5.3.1 Derivation of Data and Application of Three Scena¡ios

Data fon the three scenarios ane derived fnom a tabulation of resjdent'ial density and nelated enengy informat'ion described'in Chapten III, Table 7 (p.114). In Table L7, a section thnough the three-dimensional matrix, which focuses on an inner cone-edge Winnipeg tnact, is used to exempìify characterjstics of urban residentjal energy conditions unden the three scenarios. Although normal population increase and related economic growth ane assumed to occur under all of the scena¡ios, each of the'scena¡ios jIIustrates the effect of accommodating such gnowth and change in a different way with nespect to dens'ity and energy consumPtion. -165-

TABLE 17 MATRIX SECTION PLANE DCFG - WINNIPEG TRACT 014 . ALL CHARACTERISTICS FOR THREE SCINARIOS I98L-202I

CHARACTER ISTI CS UNITS SCENAR I O I II III

CITY . l.llNNIPEG TRACT N0. (014) TRACT TYPE ( I)

1) TRACT AREA km2 0.7 0.7 0.7

2) GROSS RESIDENTIAL DENSITY DUs/ttz 4306 7 153 1 0000

3) HSHLD. ENERGY - SPACE HEAT Gj /DU/ Y 104 61 46

4) HSHLD. ENERGY . WATER HEAT GJ/ DU/ Y 32 23 19

5) HSHLD. ENERGY - INTERNAL GJ/ DU/ Y 136 84 65

6) TRAVEL DISTANCE km 3.6 3.6 3.6

7) HSHLD. ENERGY - JoURNEY-TO-t^lORK GJ/ DU/ Y 7.8 5.3 2.7 8) HSHLD. ENERGY (INCL. J.-T0-l^J.) GJ/ DU/ Y 144 89 68

9) RES. ENERGY C0NSUMPTI0N ( INTTRNAL) rJ/knz/Y 585 601 650

10) RES. ENERGY C0NSUMPTI0N (TRANSPoRT) IJ/knz/Y 10.1 10.9 6.3

11) RES. ENERGY CoNSUMPTI0N (TOTAL) TJ/knz/Y 595 6L2 656 -166-

Scenario I, a low dens'ity nesidential alternatìve, assumes no significant change in either residential dens'ity ot'related residential enengy consumption between 1981 and 2021. A figure of 3 percent growth in popu'lation and/or economic conditìons'is therefore assumed to be accommodated unchanged withjn the same urban aneas. Under thjs scenario, by 202L, enengy consumption on a pen capita basis wouìd grow to more than twice the 1981 consumption or by a factor of 2.3 oven the 1981 base year. However, nesjdentjal density is assumed to remain constant over the 40 year time peniod. Djfferences jn res'ident'ial energy demand, such as waten heat fon a largen population on other energy growth needs, are assumed to be accommodated from the same base of enengy consumption thnough energy conservation and improved nesidential efficiencies over the interval.

Scenario II, a modenate growth alternatìve, assumes some 'increase in resìdential density and a sign'ificant decrease in unit energy consumption'in nesponse to a modest rate of gr^owth in population and a per capita energy consumpt'ion level of more than 1.25 percent. Consequent'ly, modest changes j n I i festyl e are assumed, 'incl udì ng a shi ft to mone enengy effjcient residentjal un'its ar¡anged at hìgher clensities. From Table 16, increased residential dens'it'ies, from 4306 to 7153 dwel f ings per square k'ilometne for Scenario II, are accompan'ied by jncreases in nes'ident'ial energy consumpt'ion which ane only marg'inally h'igher. than for Scenario I, on from 595 to 612 tenaioules per squane kilometne pen yean.

Scenar.i o I I I , a zero energy growth al ternat'ive assumes that growth in popuìat'ion and economic actìv'ity cont'inue at h'istot"jc rates (e.g. approx'imateìy three percent), w'ith I ittle growth in total and/or sectoral energy consumption in nesponse to other growth factors within the period 1981-2OZI. Instead, energy growth to senve new populatjon -167 - and other economic development is assumed to be derived entirely from energy savìngs from more efficient urban energy arrangements. Fon example, in the residential sector, increased ener gy demand would be sat'isf ied enti re'ly f rom energy savi ngs f nom mone energy ef f i ci ent bu'ilding and transport arrangements. Thenefore, in this scenario very 'large r.es'idential density increases are assumed over the 40 yean period. In lllinnipegos 'inner city tnact 014, a density increase fnom 4306 dwellings per squane kilometre to 10,000 dwellings pen square kilometre occurs. Large density increases are also assumed fon othen nes'idential tnacts in l^finnipeg and other cit'ies unden this scenario.

5.3.2 Two Dimens'ions of Data for Selected Real and Hypothetical Citjes

Data from Table 16 (p.165) ane plotted in two d'imensions for tnacts in three real and two hypothetical cities. Mlen res'idential density 'is compared with residential enengy consumption, non-linear relat'ionships are established for the three scenarios.* These nelat'ionships, jl lustnated in F'igures 20, 21 and 22, are 'investigated for the five cities as follows:

(1) 14'innipeg. From Table 16, data are plotted for l.finnipeg tracts and the non-linean relationships which nesult are'illustrated in Figure 23. At the low dens'ity end of the scale, thene is little d'ifference between observations for residential tracts under each of the scenarios. Also, observat'iOns conVerge and energy differences are reduced as res'identjal stock becomes more energy efficient with the development of newer suburbs. At the high density end of the scale, although sìgn'ificant increase occurs in residential density fnom Scenarios I-III, only a Slight'incnease in residentjal energy consumpt'ion occurs fon ìarge increases'in resjdential density.

* Real data ane insufficient to establish specifìc curves fon these non-l 'i nean nel at'ionshi Ps . -168-

FIGURE 20: RESIDENTIAL DTNSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - ALL CITIES . SCENARIO I

10,000

l¿l t-&. UJ o= J v l-rl &. q a.r1 & t! À 5000 U1 z. J J l-rj â I f

F T at1 êl! J Legend t- z, lrJ '!.'. +o Wì nn'ipeg /* I v) o Saskatoon t! + Edmonton foot Compact Model (CM) Decent ral i zed l4odel (DM)

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ANNUAL RESIDTNTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULES PER SQUARE KILOMETRE -169-

FIGURE 21: RESIDINTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - ALL CITIES - SCENARIO II

10,000

l¡J É. F. lJl O= J v. t!& /+ I q= ttt É. ÀUJ tJl (5 z. 5000 J J l¡J o= I t- at1 al¡l J t F- o l¿J ¡+ Õ / Legend (/) +l t¿J o t d. olt bli nnì peg ú o Saskatoon + Edmonton Compact tr4odel (CM) / Decentral ì zed lt4odel ( DM) /

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ANNUAL RISIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULES PER SQUARE KILOMETRE -170-

FIGURE 22: RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION . ALL CITIES - SCENARIO III

1o,000 I +

l-rjÉ l- I.L¡ o= J !¿ TTT trlÉ ¿ (,/)ú & ¡¿l ô- (5at1 = 5000 J

l¡J I Ò= I I I I t-- tt1 I z I l¡l o I o I J +l I zt- tJJ I o + I Legend t/) trj ôol d. I rl t Wi nni peg I o Saskatoon l + Edmonton I -.- Compact I --- Decentnal i zed I11 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ANNUAL RISIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULIS PER SQUARE KILOMETRE .L7L-

FIGURE 23: RESIDTNTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDTNTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - I.tINNIPEG - THREE SCENARIOS

10,000 o

t! æ F- LJJ O= J I trj &. ) f (/,o d. l¿J ô- U1 (5z J J l¿J 5000 â I E F- U1z oUJ J 0 + t- t ôl¿J (/, l¡J ú. a Or T + Legend I t ¡ Scenar'ì o I + Scenario II o Scenario III

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL ENTRGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULES PER SQUARE KILOMETRE -r72-

(2) Saskatoon. l,Jhen data from Table 16 are pìotted for tracts in Saskatoon, the non-ìjnear relationships which result are il lustrated jn Figure 24. At low nesidential density, there is little difference in values between the three scenarios. However, at higher resident'ial densities, residential energy consumption 'is very close. This suggests that the incneased residential density under alternat'ive scenarios is compensated for by increased energy efficiency. However, because outer suburban tracts are not analysed for Saskatoon, and observations are limited on'ly to inner cìty and mature tracts, obsenved non-linear relationships are I im'ited aceondi ngly.

(3) Edmonton. l^Jhen observat'ions fon Edmonton tracts are p'lotted (Figure 25), regar.ding residentjal energy consumption as dependent upon nesi denti al densi ty a sen'ies of non-l i near rel ationshi ps are establ'ished under each scenario. In the high range, thene is a steady incnease in r-esidential density from Scenario I-III. However, for these scenarios, the rate of incnease'in residential density'is reduced from 21 pencent between Scenarios I and II to approximately 12 percent between Scenarios II and III. In the ìow range, as residential density grows at a reduced rate, res'idential energy consumpt'ion decreases sl jghtly from scenario I-III. Thus, impnoved res'idential energy efficiency in the subut"bs, in response to jncneased nesidential density, is reflected by a connesponding decrease in residential energy consumption.

5.3.2.4 Compact C'ity Model (CM) . When clata f rom Table 16 are p'lotted for hypothetical cities, observations for tracts'in the higher ranges of resident'ial dens'ity and nesjdential energy consumption reflect a senies of lim1ts for compact city modeìs. In Figure 26, these observations are il lustnated for the three scenarios as CM ( I-III). Anaìysìs of this figure also ìnrl'icates that from Scenario I-lII the ratio of residential density to nesident'ial energy consumpt'ion increases as the less than -173-

FIGURE 24: RESTDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESTDENTIAL ENTRGY CONSUMPTION - SASKATOON - THREE SCENARIOS

10,000

l"rl æ. l- lrl O= J >¿ l¡lÉ a l,r',

æ. l¿l ô- 5000 t/, z.C5 J J u.t ô= I

F. o z./1 atrl + t- z o aul o + I Legend at1 + l¡JÉ tr r Scenario I + Scenanio I I o Scenario II I

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL INERGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULES PER SQUARE KILOMETRE - L74 -

FIGURE 25: RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND AREAL RTSIDËNTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - EDMONTON . THRIE SCENARIOS

10,000 o

lrl FÉ ut O= J >¿ + L¡J ) .J)a æ Àlrl .J' zC5 5000 J J UJ a= I F I at1 l-rJa ) o + l-- t! o a +l t/l Legend t!É I I Scenario I + Scenario II o Scenario III

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ANNUAL RESIDENTIAT ENTRGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULES PER SQUARE KITOMETRE - 175 -

FIGURE 26: RESIDENTIAL DINSITY AND RTSIDTNTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - HYPOTHETICAL CITIES - THREE SCENARIOS

10,000

l¡J& t- l¡l o= J v. l¡l& o U1 d. lJ.¡ ô- (/, (5 /,,_,,, = J J cM- l¡J 5000 II o= I CM- I F .J1z ulâ J l- I l¡lo I .,/l I IJÉ I Legend i,l ts¡- Compact Model (CM) ! Decentral'ized /i DM -III Model (DM) DM-I DM-I I 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULES PER SQUARI KILOMETRE -176-

linean nelat'ionship of the graphs of res'idential density to residential 'li eneng$/ consumption approach a strai ght ne.

t,J'ithin the hìghen nanges of residential energy consumption, the compact model also pr"ovides a lower limit for selected real c'ities. in addition, from Scenarios II-III an incnease'in the gap between values fon Edmonton and for the compact model suggests that hypothetical limits in the high density range are difficult to achieve for real citìes.

5.3.2.5 Decentral'ized Model (DM). Mìen data from Table 16 are plotted for a decentralized model in F'igure 26, observations jn the lowen ranges of residential density and residential energy consumption suggest limits for a decentralized model. For the three scenarios, these ane illustrated as DM (I-III).

5.3.3 Residential Density and Residential Energy Density

In Table 17 (p.165), a matn'ix sect'ion in the pìane DCFG (p.13a) l'ists selected characteristics for a s'ingle Winnjpeg tract unden all scenarios. Similarly, Tables 18 and 19 'il lustrate sections in the plane ABCD of the three-dimensional matrix. These compare data on specifìc characteristics such as nes'idential dens'ity and residentjal energy consumption fon alI selected tnacts and cit'ies under the thnee scenarjos. Table 19 illustrates a potential for using sections through the matrix to analyse threshold energy consumption limits for residential tract charactenistics. For exampìe, in the matrix section shown, a threshold of res'idential density whìch is sufficient to just'ify feasible d'istributìon of thermal energy ìs illustrated.

A comparative analysis of data fon resident'ial density and nesjdential energy consumptìon in tracts all c'ities unden three scenanìos (Figune 27) indicates that: -L77 -

TABLE 18: MATRIX SECTION PLANE ABCD - ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL ENIRGY CONSUMPTION - SELECTED TRACTS FOR ALL CITITS

CITY TRACT NO SCENAR IO TTRAJOULES PTR SQUARE KILOMETRE

(REAL) I II III

l^ll NN IPEG I 014 595 612 656 M 017 532 400 327 M 535 186 L52 131 0 540.02 228 17T 138

EDMONTON I 032 342 430 478 M 048 229 166 151 0 025 166 141 r42

SASKATOON I 008 249 277 264 M 015 169 192 182 0 010 169 141 TI?

( HYPOTHETICAL )

672 622 COMPACT I cm Spl ne 842 CITY Mcm Inter. 719 630 483 329 327 275 0 cm l^leb. 243 DECE NTRAL IZED Idm T C 170 188 CITY Mdm D c LLz 129 t87 odt R c r20 141 210

Legend

cm = corltPitct model dm = decentral i zed model T. c = town centne anea D. C = d'i stri ct cent re area R. c = reg'ional centne anea

Spi ne = major central zone or cone area Inte r = intermediate zone on fingen anea l'Jeb = outer zone or web area -178-

TABLE 19 MATRIX SECTION PLANE ABCD - RESIDENTIAL DENSITY - ALL SCENAR IOS

C ITY TRACT N0. SCËNAR IO

(rMPrRrcAL) I

t^ll NN IPEG I 014 M 017 M 535 1 164 1 332 1500 0 540.02 1335 1418 I 500

EDMONTON I 032 M 048 1528 0 025 1229 1515

SASKATOON I 008 1517 M 015 1063 L532 0 010 t242 137 1 1500

( HY POTHTTICAL )

COMPACT I cm Spi ne CITY M cm I nte r. 0 cm Web.

DECE NTRAL I ZID Idm T c L497 303 C ITY Mdm D c 92 141 odm R c 92 141 303

LEGEND'

1ffifr,:-ìjifïjï#il r NDrcATrs TRAçTS 6ITH suFF IC IENT DENSITIES TO JUSTIFY FEASIBLE DISTRIBUTION OF THERMAL INERGY.

Legend

cm compact model dm decentr al i zed model T. c town centre area D. c di strì ct cent re area R. C regìonal centre area

Sp'ine = major central zone or core anea Inter - i ntermediate zone or f i ngen anea Wehr = outer zone or web area - 179 -

FIGURE 27: RTSIDENTIAL DENSITY AND RESIDTNTIAL ENTRGY CONSUMPTION -- ALL CITIES --THRTE SCTNARIOS

10,000 I I + I I

l¿J& ts ul , V, /'+ t! ÏII a(n lrJ d 5000 II v) (5z I I I J I l¿J I I â I , I I I F I

ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TERAJOULES PTR SQUARE KILOMETRE -180-

(1) Residential energy densities for selected inner city tracts ìn l^Iinnipeg are gneater than Edmonton and Saskatoon. This reflects consistently highen residential enengy consumption in those areas of htinnipeg.

(2) Under Scenario I, natios of resident'ial dens'ity to res'idential energy consumption for outer suburban tracts in the neal cìty are greaten than the same ratios for tracts in the hypothetical decentralized city. Houleven, under Scenarios II or IÏI this relationsh'ip changes, and the ratios fon real cities are less than the values for a decentralized city. This diffenence can be analysed in the following manner. In the hypothetical city' under Scenanio I, resìdent'ial densities are higher relat'ive to nesidential ener"S¡y consumption. This is intninsic to the desìgn of a decent ral 'i zed ci ty i n whi ch dens'iti es are control I ed and energy consumption is m'inimized thr^ough urban design and land use poìicies (Goodman 1977). However, under Scenarios II and III' efficiency assumptions built into the hypothetical city at the outset ane not suffic'ient to overcome transport and othen efficiency increases which are intrinsic to mone compact real c'ities.

(3) Considering the selected cities on a dwelìing unit basjs,'inter^nal residential enengy consumption for households'in a hypothetical 'lower decentral'ized city is, by design, than for households in selected real cities (Tab'le 16, p.163). However, inclusion of an energy component for iounney-to-work to the cone reduces some of the efficiency advantage of a hypothetical decentralized city. For Scenarios II and III, indicat'ions fnom more ene¡gy efficient suburban tracts suggest that despite the small proportion of energy which.is nepresented by journey-to-work to the cone, it is a significant factor in residential energy efficiency. -181-

(4) A comparison of tracts in a hypothetical compact city with real cit.ies indicates that residential energy consumption'is consistently lower in residential tracts in the formen than in the latter. For example, observations fnom Table 16 and Figure 27' ind.icate that for Scenanios I and II values fon high density tracts in Edmonton approach those for a hypothetical compact city. However, under Scenanio III, the gap between observed values for' Edmonton and those for high density residential tracts in the compact ci ty i ncreases si gn'if i cant'ly. Thi s suggests that, despi te increases in some Edmonton tract densities, and sharp increases in thein ratios of residential density to resident'ial enengy consumption under this scenario, the selected compact city model is less enengy consuming and more energy efficient'

5.3.4 Resident'ial Density and Tnavel Distance to the Central Core

From the format ìn Table 9, data for residential dens'ity are companed with travel distance to the central core for three selected neal cities and two hypothet'ical models. ttTren the ratios of the two variables are plotted in Figure 28, non-linear relationships are observed for selected tracts in the two largest citìes. For Saskatoon, values are also reasonably close to observations for the larger cities. From limited data, the following conditions and relationships ane noted:

(l) gbservations of rat'ios of residential consumption to acliusted tnavel d'istance to the core, from vanious nesjdential tracts in Al f on these Wj nn.ipeg and Edmonton, ane s'imi I ar to one another. so, tracts residential consumption decneases wjth adiusted travel distance from the centre except toward some outer suburbs (F'igure 28).

(2) Toward the outer suburbs'in some tracts in large real cities, areal res jdenti al consumpt'ion p]ateaus on increases with adjusted travel ri.istance fr"om the centre. This reflects higher residential -L82-

FIGURE 28: RESIDËNTIAL DENSITY AND ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE TO THE CENTRAL CORE . ALL CIÏIES

18x 103

16 \ l¡JÉ t-- Ld L4 O= J V. \ lrJ É. L2 * I a/,a

l¿J ô- 10 +T r (t, z ì I )_J ut I =o I t o * t- (t', 6 z. âu-l ) \ 4 Legend z.t- l¿J â o I. Wi nnipeg v1 ".- LrJ + o Saskatoon É. 2 + I + Edmonton o .-r< Compact Model Decentnal'ized Model \\ \_-o

-_+_ 0 2 4 6 I 10 L2 L4 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

ADJUSTID TRAVEL DISTANCE IN KILOMETRES -183-

densities and jncreased numbens of multiple dwellings'in such

a reas.

(3) In comparison with values for residentjal tracts in real cities, hypothetical cities jndicate cont'inuous non-linear relationships with aneal residential consumption decneasing with distance from the urban centre. For the decentralized model (DM)' the non-ljnear relationship ref'lects a mone gradual change in the ratio of aneal residential consumption to adjusted tnavel distance from the consumption axis compared with ratios for real c'ities. For the compact city, the ratio of resjdential consumption to adiusted travel distance also decreases with distance from the consumption axis, but less sharply than values for real cities" These obsenvations are consistent with earlien nesearch on the inverse relationship between population dens'ity and urban distance (Clark 1951, Newl i ng 1969) .

S.3.5 Resident'ial Energy Consumption and Travel Distance to the Central Co re

In this sub-section, the relationship 'is investigated between the variables (i) residential enengy consumpt'ion and tnavel distance to the central core in resident'ial tracts. Data on these var iables are derived from Table 16. For selected tracts 'in neal and hypothetical cities, nesults are'illustrated in Figures 23-25, regarding residential densìty as dependent upon residential energy consumptìon, a series of non-linear nelationships are establ'ished. From these limited data, the follow'ing are ì ndì cated:

(1) Fon the selected nesident'ial tracts, nesjdent'ial enengy consumption decreases wjth adiusted travel distance from the central cone'

(2) 0lder. residential tracts situated close to the centnal core edge and jn mature suburbs consume more energy pen un'it area. -184-

(3) In the older c'ity of Winn'ipeg, the selected tracts are more energy consuming than similar tracts in the newer cities of Edmonton and Saskatoon.

(4) 51gnificantìy higher energy consumption in older tnacts jn Winnipeg reflects its ìargen stock of older housing" For example, most dwellings in the selected mature tract (017)'in lllinnipeg are 30-50 years older than dwelìings in a compar"able mature tnact (QaB) in Edmonton.

(S) Higher energy consumption'in older Winn'ipeg tracts is also clue to h'igher residential densities'in those tracts and neflects,'in part' 'in smal I er resi denti al I of s'i zes many ol der areas .

(6) Differences in residential enengy consumption with adiusted tnavel di stance f rom the centre f or the cit'ies of hli nn'ipeg, Saskatoon, and Edmonton are 521, !74, and 205 teraioules per square kilometne per yean respectively under Scenario I (Table 16, p.163). For the same scenario and the same three citjes' comparable values from estimated data are 494, 158, and 249 teraioules pef" squane kilometre per year respectively. Th'is appears to indìcate a close correspondence between estimated and real data for selected residential tracts in the nespective c'ities (Table 5, P. 110).

usef 'i n 'investi gati ng ( 7 ) Al though di stance to the central core i s ul residential enengy consumption, it is less important in considening transport energy, insofar aS the transport component repreSents such a small proportion of residential enengy'

j (S) For hypotheti cal c'it'ies, data for a compact ci ty model 'ind cate that (.i ) travel d'istance to the core for a compact model repnesents only a small propontion of the distance to the core for neal cit'ies, with a maximum adjusted value of 6.4 kilometres, and (ii) resjdent'ial energy consumption values fal'l onìy with'in the upper range of the residential energy consumptìon scale (F'igure 30) . -185-

FIGURE 29: REAL AND ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RELATION TO ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE - THREE SELËCTED CITIES SCENARIO I

800

IllÉ l- 700 L¡J O= J ¡ }Z 014 l-rJ &. 600 =q a/, &. t! ô- lt-. 017 at1 LrJ 500 J + Õ= + 032 \ ') tI \ d l¿l \ F- \ 400 I \ \ O= \ F ô- \ \ \ at)= z 300 \ \ O o \ \ (-) \ (5 008 \ É. [-oor- t¿l - ..-_\* 025 r 540.02 Legend =l¡J 200 q .o Ì+\ J I l,li nnipeg (Real ) O- 0 1 5 È utu--- -r- (Estimated) t- --O'. o z o Saskatoon (Real ) at! 010 -o- (Estimated) (/) Edmontori (Real lrj 100 + ) d. -r- (Estìmated) J 0000 Tract Number z,

24 6 I 10 12 t4 16 i8 20 22 24 26 28 30

ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE IN KILOMTTRES -186-

FIGURE 30: RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RELATION TO ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE - HYPOTHTTTCAL MODELS

800 \ llJ \ t-ú LrJ O \ J= 700 :¿ LrlÉ a= tJ1 600 É i lrJ ô- aJ', I UJ J I O= 500 d. tlJ \ t-- I I z O 400 t- i ô- DM = It cM) t/, O(J I 300 t Legend (5 É lrl Compact Model (CM) UJ Decentnal i zed Model (DM ) J 200 zt- Olfj v1 UJÉ J 100 z ê -t- ¿?- -

2 4 6 B 10 12 14 16 iB 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

ADJUSTED TRAVEL DISTANCE IN KILOMETRES -187-

For the decentralized city, values are revensed, wjth observatìons at the lowen end of the scale of resjdential energy consumpt'ion and toward the max'imum end of the scale of adiusted tnavel distance"

By combining observations fon compact and decentralized city models, a composite hypothetical graph is established in whìch residential energy consumption decreases with dìstance from the core (Figure 30). A composite of observat'ions that combines real values for the thnee cit'ies under three scenarios with a composite of values fon hypothetical models (Figure 30) 'indicates that values for l¡¡ìnnjpeg and Edmonton under Scenarios I-III appear to approach the composite of values for the hypothetical cities (Figure 31)"

5.4 THE USE OF THREE DIMENSIONS TO INVESTIGATE CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN REAL AND HYPOTHETICAL CITIES

In section 4.4, the three-dimens'ional matrix was descrìbed as a device to compare residential energy cond'itions' In sect'ion 5'3' two dimensional relationships of this mat¡ix were invest'igated' This subsection, which focuses on thnee d'imensional relationsh'ips, considers the var.iables r"es.idential density, r"esìdentjal energy consumption, and adjusted tnavel distance to the urban core. In particulan, the .impì i cati ons of resi dent'ial energy consumpt'ion f or sel ected t racts and 'is as a citi eS ane cons'idered under altennatìve scenarios' T'ime used surrogate for Scenarios, and notional cjrcular cities are used as a residential means to simulate the effect of distance from the core for energy consumpti on i n real ci t'ies '

Although the matrix is three-dimensional in form and in the' to the arrangement of its data,'its exp'lanatony power is not'intrìnsic 'in (p'134)' spec'if i c conf igurat'ion of jts three pl anes F'igure 14 Rather, its three dimensjonal potent'ia1 l'ies in the opportunit'ies which .its data offer to manipulate two djmensional relationsh'ips of variables FiGURE 33 CHANGING RATIOS OF RESIDENTIAL DENSITY TO RESIDENTIAL ENTRGY CONSUMPTION FOR THREE CITIES OVER TrME ( NOrr0NAL)

n Tr¡ t- x Ð

f- (t I m z. \o U) f\) --{ -y' I I ,/ O '/- C ,/ ,/ ,/ |"EAR U1 20?l ,// ^ L--' =l\) z-- 20n, ¿_ ^v v v

I gn, ptR .sp r C6 €s U4RE Nsuluîp pô,? x4 KIL .t4 r ILtv x4,?s .ûs ,?.1

EDMONTON SASKATOON hJINNIPTG -193- there was a p'lateau or sli ght increase in densìty between a tnact 'in a mature'inner subunb and one in a newer outer subunb. In part, thìs neflected an 'incnease in multipìe dwelling accommodation in the outer subunb of that city.

(2) For innen core edge tracts in the two langer selected cities, res'identjal densities were hìgher than jn the outer suburbs by a factor of two to thnee (Table 17, p.165). Also, jn olden mature and inner core edge nesìdentìal tracts jn the selected olden city, h'igher residential densit'ies, ref lected in part, sma'l len lot sizes and more 'intens jve r"es j dent'i al devel opment.

(3) Travel distance for journey-to-work to the core, alone, was ìnsufficient as a parameter of nesidentjal transport energy. Illith different residential enengy consumptìon levels at simi lar distances from the centnal core in both ìarger and smaller cities, other factors such as compactness or size of city had to be considered.

5.5.1.2 Age and Condition of Urban Res'idential Tracts. Parameters such as age and condit'ion of urban residential tracts, when compared wìth values for res'idential energy consumptìon indicated fnom avaìlable data that (1) urban residential tracts w'ith a high pnoportion of new dwellìngs exhìbìted lower resìdential energy consumption; and converseìy, (?) an older city on tract with a large proport'ion of dwellings over 40 year"s exhibited hìgher r"esidential energy consumptìon.

5.5.1.3 Urban Sjze and Compactness. Limìted data from three real cjties ind'icated the fol lowing characteristics with respect to urban s'ize and compactness: (I) the two larger citjes appeaned more'compact than the smallest city; and (2) the newer'large city Edmonton was mone compact than the older ìarge city of Wìnnipeg.

5.5.1.4 Resr'dential tnergy Consumption and Effìciency. Invest'igation of the proportjon of sectoral energy which compnised each component of -i94- residential enengy, and considenatjon of the energy system efficiency of nes'ident'ial units i ndi cated that resi denti al energ/ system ef f ic'iency was less than 50 percent (Table L2, p.152). Investigation also i ndi cated that consi derabl e potenti a'l exi sts to i ncnease res'ident j al energy efficiency, with the largest potentiaì for efficiency increase in space and water heati ng.

5.5.2 Limits for Urban Resident'ial Conditions

Lìmits fon real unban conditions were derived by comparing limits for real citjes w'ith hypothetical cities. For compact and decentralìzed models ljm'iting parameters were ( 1) residential density, (2) househoìd or dwelling unìt consumpt'ion and (3) the energy requirements of journey-to-work djstance to the cone.

5.5.2.I Resident'ial Density. Although empìrica'l ev'idence indicated that hjgh and low resjdent'ial density 1ìmits were possìble fon real 1ar.ge cjtìes, ranging from less than 150 dwelìings per squane kilometne to in excess of 70,000 dweìììngs per square kilometne, ìn thìs investìgation, mone conservat'ive limits for resident'ial densjty were selected. For example, unden the three scenarios, selected cjtjes ranged fr"om 1000-10,000 dwellìngs per square kilometre.

5.5.2.2 Household and Res'idential Enengy Consumptìon. t^lhen l'imjts fon total household energy consumptìon were derived by comparìng consumptìon l'imjts for dwel ì i ngs 'in both hypotheti caì and real cjti es, under Scenario I, tota'l res jdent'ial energy ranged f nom 96-209 gigaioules per dwel lìng per year'. Unden Scenario III, res'idential energy ranged f rom 5I-LI2 gigajouìes per dwelling per year for the real cities, with low end limjts of 37 gjgaioules per dwe'lling per year for the hypothetical cjties. Fìnal ìy, w'ith respect to total resjdential energy consumption, unden Scenario I, 150 to approximately 600 ter"ajoules per square k'ilometre provided a practicaì range of limits for real cities, with a 'ljm'it I ow end of 112 tenajoul es per squar e ki I ometre for hypotheti cal c'ities 195 -

5.5.2.3 Travel Distance to the Centnal Core. Fon distance to the centnal core, conservative lìmits wene also selected. For example, aìthough adjusted one-way commut'ing distances to the central core in excess of 64 kilometr"es were possible, adiusted jounney-to-work limits fon diffenent resìdentjal zones in the selected cìt'ies wene in the nange of 3"6-18 kilometres. These lim'its, combined with empìn'ical data on energy consumptìon fon conventjonal vehicles, nesulted 'in private auto enengy lìmits of 2.5-5.0 megajoules per kjlometne under Scenario I, 1.4-3.4 megajoules per kilometne under Scenanio II, and 0.8-1.4 megajouìes per kilometre under Scenanio III. Tnansit energy was assumed to range from a h'igh of 2.3 to a low of 1.0 megajoule per kilometre for Scenan'ios I-lII.

5.5 .3 The Use of Scenarjos to Investigate Long Term Change in Residenti al Energy

An'investìgat'ion of residential densìty and residentjal energy density fon urban tracts jn selected real and hypothetical citjes under three scenarì os i nd'i cated:

(1) resident'ial energy consumpt'ion jn selected older jnnen city tracts 'in Winnipeg was greater than in comparable areas of tdmonton and Saskatoon (Figune 16, P.163).

(2) in new outer subunban aneas jn the selected cit'ies, nesìdential energy consumptjon values were relativeìy close (Figures 29 and 31). However, towand the urban centre, res'identjal energy consumption varied sìgnifìcantly among the cities.

(3) ener.gy for journey-to-work to the core represented a small facton in total res'idential energy consumptìon under Scenario I, and was an even less signifìcant factor under Scenanio III (Tab1e I7,

p.165) . -196-

(4) Under Scenanio I, the rat'ios of residentjal density to res'idential enengy consumption for a selected hypothetical compact c'ity surpassed ratios for Edmonton cone edge tracts (Figure 27, p.179). However, under more efficient conditions for Scenarios II ot" III' the ratios for the compact city model d'id not exceed rat'ios for Edmonton, and the gap between the neal and the hypothetical city jncreased. This suggested that for mature and jnnen cone edge tracts, enengy consumption in the real city d'id not match more enengy efficient conditions in the hypothetical city'

5.5.4 Change jn Res'idential Enengy Consumption'in Response to Dimensions of Time and Distance

To ìnvestìgate change in resjdent'ial enengy and distance with time, a third dìmens'ion was introduced. This additional dimension macle it possible to consjden: (1) change'in residential energy consumption with distance from the unban centre; and (2) t'ime related changes jn ratios of res'ident'ial density to residentjal energy consumpt'ion.

S.S.4.l Change in Residentjal Enengy Consumption wìth Distance fnom the Urban Centre. A series of three-djmensjonal surfaces was generated by rotat.ing each of the graphs of energy consumpt'ion against distance (Fi gure 31) through 3600 about the energy consumpt'ion ax'i s. Each confjguration represented a partjcular scenario for an assumed cìrcular c'ity at a given point in time. Differences in the volumes of space enclosed by these configurations reflected magnìtudes of potential enengy conservation for not'ional c'it'ies which were assumed to be sim'ilar to selected real c'ities. Energy consumpt'ion in the notìonal ci rcular ( gune Thi s cì ti es was descni bed under alternatj ve scenarios F'i 32). nepresentatìon of change jn urban residential energy three-dimens'ional jon' consumpt'ion was a central clevel opment of this dissentat Results .ic suggest that w'ith suff j ent data and appropri ate computer technol ogy ' 'it can be adapted to model areal ene¡gy consumption in other Iange c'iti es. -r97 -

5"5.4.2 Changing Rat'ios of Res'idential Density to Residential Energy Consumptjon over T'ime. Changing ratios of resldential dens'ity to nes'idential energy consumption were compared over time fon selected c'itìes. Consideration of the resulting non-planan sunfaces also suggested a way of predictìng rat'ios of resìdentjal density to res'identjal enengy consumptjon for particular time perìods withìn the limits of specific scenarios (Figure 33).

Chapter VI summarizes the d'issertation, and consjders some conclusions and policy ìmpl'icat'ions which arise from thjs investìgation. CHAPTER VI - SU!{I"IARY, CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY II.IPLICATIONS

This chapten comp¡ises four sections. The first provides an overview of the study. It contains a description of the reseanch method; an outline of the urban laboratory ìn which the research js conducted, inc]uding its devices, thei r purposes and appì ìcations; and a discussion of the selected parameters, limjts, and scenarios that are used to ana'lyse long-term change 'in unban energy. The second sect'ion jdent'ifies areas fon furthen reseanch that are required to transform the 'icabl i I I ustrat'ive method j nto an operati onal p'l ann'ing tool app'l e to ìar.ge cit'ies. The thi rd section d'iscusses research conclus'ions about questìons which relate urban and energy characteristics in the context j 'i of three sel ected ci ti es. The f ou rth secti on d scusses some po'l cy ìmplications of the nesearch.

6.1 OVERVIII^I OF THE THISIS

This ovenview of the thes'is recapìtulates the five chapters: (I) Introduction; (II) Litenature Review; (III) Research Design and 0r^ganizat'ion of Data; (IV) Resear^ch Method; and (V) Appl ication of the Met hod

6.1.i Chapter I - Introduction

This initial chapter, pnovìded a background to the thesjs, descrjbed 'its regional envjronment and the unban context for enengy investigat'ion. It also defined the prob'lem, outlined reseanch objectives and established condìtions and relationships for applìcat'ion of a method of investigating urban nesidential energy. The three objectives of the dissertation wene to:

-198- -199-

( 1) devel op a pract'ical method of systemat'ical ly di saggregati ng enengy consumpt'ion and other characterj sti cs of res'identi al l and use by area;

(2) apply the method to investigate energy consumption ìn selected urban nesjdential tracts under different assumpt'ions about future energy; and

(3) cons'ider the method in relation to urban energy poììcies which could help to achieve a balance between energy production and urban res'idential energy consumption and incnease system efficìency of total unban resident'ial energy consumption.

In cons'iderìng these obiectives, a number of cond'it'ions and relationsh'ips were'investigated and a notional model of unban resjdentjal energy was applìed to three large cities. some relat'ionships which were cons'idered ìncluded (i) size of city (populat'ion) and compactness for three c'ities | (2) resident'ial density of selected tracts; (3) age and condition of selected residential tracts; and (a) the system efficiency with which ava'ilable urban and regiona'l energy is ava'ilable in two largen c'itjes.

A focus for this analYsis of relationships was a series of questions whi ch ane d'iscussed i n sectìon 6.3.

6.I.2 Chapter II L'iteratu ne Revi ew

The second chapter provìded (1) an overvjew of relevant lìtenature on energy conservatìon prìor to 1973-74; (2) a revjew of some problems of modell'ing of compìex urban systems; and (3) a review of liter.ature of relevance to specific aspects of the nesearch desìgn. These aspects'included some ljm'its of urban design in relation to 'in urban and related energy data and defined laboratory cond'itions selected large cjtjes and urban tnacts. Relevant'l'iteratune which was reviewed i ncluded several panadi gms for compact and decentralized c'ities -200-

-- urban configurations which neflected alternatjve scenan'ios fon futune energy. Scenarios ranged from a continuat'ion of curnent unban energy conditjons to an assumption of substantial present and future change ìn response to prospect'ive I imjts i n f uture energy.

6.1.3 Chapten III - Research Design and Organizatìon of Data

The third chapter. described a means of analysing the parameters: residential dens'ity, commuting d'istance to the central core, and 'large nesidential energy consumption for selected tnacts jn three ci t i es . It comp r i sed fi ve stePs :

(1) a research method was described;

(2) r^es'idential envi ronments for the research design wene def ined;

(3) an alternative method of determinìng jnternal res'ident'ial /commerc'ial energy consumpt'ion fon households and urban areas was developed using reaì and estimated data;

(4) a means of establ'ishìng energy consumption for journey-to-work to the core was developed for residential tracts jn success'ive zones of the selected cities; and

(5) from data in (3) and (4), a base level of res'idential ene rgy consumption at the discretion of urban households was defi ned.

Th'is method deri ved and i nvesti gated rea'l energy data obtai ned for the cities of Winnìpeg, Saskatoon and Edmonton, and compared it with j estimated data f or typi ca'l dwel I ì ngs extrapo'lated f or res'ident al tracts in these cities. In this way, rea'l and estimated data were compared' and a method was app'lied which used neal energy data to'illustrate a practìcal appr"oach to res'idential energy analys'is' -201-

6.1.4 Chapter iV - Research Method

In Chapter Four, a selection of three large cities in a regìon of advense climate was identified to establish an appnopnjate context'in whjch the proposed method could be app'l'ied. This regional setting, with its selected cities, provided an urban laboratory'in which unban energy parameters for three real ci t'ies could be 'investi gated.

To overcome l'imitat'ions, such as a lack of time-series data on residential energy, a numben of devices we¡e 'intnoduced. These jncluded: (1) postu'lating hypothet'ical c'it'ies to establ'ish l'imìts for r"eal urban parametens; (2) using scenarios to s'imulate t'ime-dependent changes 'in res'identi al energy for neal ci t'ies; and (3) devel opi ng a thnee-d'imensìonal matrix format for processing urban energy data to facilitate analysis of parametens fon a potentially ìarge number of tnacts'in both real and hypothetical citìes.

6.1.5 Chapter V - Appl'ication of the Method

Thi s chapter i nvesti gated unban ener!¡y data deve]oped i n accondance wìth the Research Design and 0rganìzat'ion of Data and the Method descri bed 'in Chapters Thnee and Four respecti ve'ly. Thi s application of the method comprised five steps:

(1) res.ident jal dens'ity, di stance to the core and resìdential ener"gy consumpt'ion parametens for three types of unban nesidential tracts wene defined fon three selected large citìes;

(2) practical lim'its for real unban tracts were estabìished by comparing parameters for postulated hypothetì ca'l c'iti es;

'in (3) scenanios wene used to compare time-related changes residential enef"gy consumptìon and other parameters unden alternative 'futune assumptions of ener"gY; -202-

(4) residential energy consumptjon was consider^ed as a function of nes'idential density and of nesjdentjal transport energy associated w'ith journey-to-work distance to the central cone for urban househol ds ; and fi nal 1Y

(5) a thr^ee-dimensional matrix fonmat was used to compane res'identjal energy parameters for neal cities wìth l'imjts denived fnom urban models.

6.2 AREAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

This dissertatìon has demonstrated the appìication of a method of organizing and modelling ur"ban residential energy data'in a new way. However, development of th'is method ìnto operational tool which is general'ly appf icable to large cit'ies requines further research. This 'includes (1) expansion jn the scope of the research desìgn, (2) .impnovements in analytì ca'l procedures and (3) expansion and ref inement of the database from wh'ich further jnvestigation can be undertaken.

6,2.I Scope of Research

In terms of the Scope of the nesearch, greater consistency and robustness 'in results requìre expanded terms of reference. Thjs includes consjderation of addit'ional c'ities jn djfferent enengy resource regìons as well as addjtjonal residential tracts in each city. Although onìy the most northerly lange citjes jn three Provjnces were investigated in this reseanch, in future, urban energy data need not be l.imited onìy to a singìe regìon. For example, at least six other lange Canad.ian cities, also in relatively cold climate regìons, merit similar ì nvestì gati on ( Tabl e 3) .

In each of the th¡ee selected c'it'ies only thr"ee or f our tracts were selected from each of three urban zones 'in order to simpììfy data process'ing, and to be able to easiìy obtajn and manipulate utility data -203- to demonstr^ate the application of the method. However, the small number of tnacts considered d'id not pr^ovide a suffic'ient sample size or database for pnoper hypothesis testing. In future investigat'ions, data fnom a larger numben of cities and tracts in each cìty shou'ìd pnovide suff icjent statistical neliabi'lity for this purpose and would fac'il'itate 'li more preci se model ng of changes i n parameters among res'ident'ial areas. in addition, more t'ime-series data for additional tnacts in each ci ty wou'ld permit more ef fecti ve compari son of resi dent'ial energy consumption and other related urban pararneters.

6 .2.2 Analyt'i ca'l P rocedu nes

l,lith respect to ìmpnovements ìn ana'lyticaì procedures, two areas for further nesearch are: (1) clarification of components within the resident'ial densjty panameter; and (2) ìmprovements in accountìng of urban residential energJ/ consumptìon'

(1) In the fi rst jnstance, a'lthough res'idential dens'ity s'ignìficantly affects res'idential ener'gy consumpt'ion, some relevant factons which are not expìicit may be concealed wìthin the variable residential density. For exampìe, ìnformat'ion on land use m'ix or condjtion of buildings can be obscuned w'ithin (census) aggregatjons of nesidentjal data on land uses wh'ich are classjfjed as commercial (rentaì apartments) but ane funct'ional ly r^esidentjal. Therefore' a more effective system of classification of urban land and residential enengy consumption is required. Such a system would incorporate not on'ly postal code conversion pnograms and energy util'ity data as employed in thjs dissertation, but would also include more precise land use and zon.ing jnfonmation which js becom'ing ìncreasingly ava'ilable in ìangen mun'i c'ipa'li ti es.

(2) In the second jnstance, 'improvements jn accounting of res'identjal energy would consjder all factors wh'ich affect energy -?04- consumption for this sector. Fon example, space conditioning and waten heat represent mone than 80 percent of internal resident'ial enengy and much of the rema'ining 18-20 percent compr''ises enengy fon appl iances. Howeven, a lange proportion of app'l'iance energy, as weìl as benefìcial heat losses by buiìding occupants, supplements jnternal energy consumption for environmental conditioning through "enengy cascadìn9". It has been estìmated that such beneficial losses fnom human occupants jn dwel'lings and fnom major appliances can range from 8-16 percent of ('internal ) resident'ial energy (CMHC L977"" 14) . However, rea'l data on enengy consumption in residential areas from utilities often do not account for such beneficial heat losses" Consequently, real consumption clata can result'in an underestimate of residentjal energy consumption. To ensure a more compìete picture of total nesidential consumptìon, future energy anaìyses should account fon such thermal ene¡gy.

6.3 CONCLUSIONS

In this sect'ion conclusions ane cons'idered with respect to (1) the method and its application in organizing processing and mode'lìing real urban energy data and (2) questions and relationships which wene investigated ìn applyìng the method to thnee cities'

6 .3.1 The Method and i ts Appl i cat i on

The d'issertation has demonstrated the pnactical application of a 'lì method for systemat'ical ìy d'isaggnegati ng, anaìysi ng and mode'l ng urban energy and related characterist'ics for selected res'idential tracts fot" the Canadi an Pl ai ns cjti es, Wjnni peg, Saskatoon and Edmonton '

The method has been demonstrated usìng estimated data as a substj tute where j nsuffi c'i ent real data wene avai I abl e. However, 'invest'igated the suf f ì c.ient neal data were deri ved and for" each of ze, sel ected cj t'ies to 'ind'icate that the method can be usef ul to organi -205- process and model a range of energy and related urban characteristics. For example the method could be app'lied on a larger scale to process and model energy data in the same or different c'ities. This can also be done periodical'ly, using a variety of systematic data such as census and geocode nevisions, and mandated changes'in municipal plans, to provìde a basis for companison of time-related change in urban energy use.

Application of the method can also pr^ovide a fj rst approximat'ion of resjdential energy use chanacteristics that might be expectecl for othen citjes w'ith similan climatìc conditions (e.9. Ca]gary and Reg'ina). tJhen notionally app'lied to selected c'itìes, the method also demonstrates the potentiaì to project real enengv data in multidjmensional formats and to generate thr^ee-dimensional presentatìons of unban energy use for cities and unban tracts w'ith companable characteristics. In this way, the method could be used to monjtor change in energy use, to'identify whene energy waste may be occurnìng and to suggest where change in pub'lic po'licy needs to be di rected.

6.3.2 Quest'ions and Relationships Investigated

I n apply.i ng the method to I i mi ted data f nom three cì t'i es , a number of quest'ions and relat'ionsh'ips of energy use which were jdent'ified jn subsections 1.4 and 1.5 (pp.31 and 35) have been investigated. Observations whjch arise fnom these quest'ions relate to (1) the effect of urban size and compactness on res'idential enengy consumpt.ion; (2) the'impact of resjdential density and distance to the central urban cone on nesidential ene¡gy consumpt'ion; (3) the effect of age and/or resjdentjal buildìng cond'it'ion on res'idential energy consumption with'in selected urban areas; and (4) unban energy system efficiencies in selected 'lar"ge cities and res'ident'ial tracts, and thej r use of ava j I ab'le energY. -206-

6.3.2.I The Effect of Urban Size and Compactness on Residentjal Energy Consumpt'ion. In th'is subsection observations and conclusions focus on three aspects of the r"elationshjp between urban size and compactness and nesìdentjal energy consumpt'ion (1) urban size jn relat'ion to res'ident'ial density, (2) urban size and compactness'in relation to tnavel d'istance to the central core and (3) unban size and its effect on residential energy consumption.

(1) Urban Size in Relation to Resident'ial Dens'ity. From data in Table 11 and Subsection 5.1.3 aspects of the relationship between urban size and residential density which are 'impontant for the selected c1ties l'nclude, the comparative size and densities of the c'ities and among the cities.

In 1981, Saskatoon, the smallest of the three cities invest'igated, hacl only 30 percent of the popu'latjon of Edmonton, and 35 pencent of its households" It also had 70 percent of the population dens'ity of Edmonton and 86 pencent of its nesjdential density, or and average of 470 dwellings per squar"e kilometre fon Saskatoon compared with Edmonton's 544 dwellings per square kjlometre (Table 11). Popu'ìation, dwel I ing and areal dens'ity fìgures for Saskatoon and Winnipeg a'lso varied, aìthough the diffenence in nesident'ial densities was less pronounced. For example, wh'ile Saskatoon conta'ined only 28 pe¡cent of the population of lrl'innìpeg, and 28 percent of its occup'ied dwelìings, its resident'ial dens'ity was approx.imately 94 per-cent of winnipeg. Therefore, saskatoon, 'in hli peg al though much smal I en s'i ze than e'i ther Eclmonton or nni ' 'largen approached the resjdent'ial density of the two cjties.

(Z) The Relationship between Urban Size, Aneal Compactness and Unban Travel D'istance. The application of the method appears to confirm -207 -

that residential bu'ilding density decreases w'ith distance fnom the centre (Figure 28) 'in a sjm'ilar way to popuìatìon dens'ity (Clark 1951; Newling 1969). Howeven, this relatjonship not only affects the dìStance panameter, but also nes'identjal tnansport energy to 'in the cone. Although transport energy data were l'imited th'is investigation, sub-sect'ions 5.2.I and 5.3"5, and Table'13, (p.156) indicate that for the selected cities, shont travel d'istances between the central cone and matune suburban on inner core edge tracts require less areal resjdentjal transport energy than tnansport fnom more remote res'idential tracts" However, considering that the avenage energy consumption per tr^ip'is gneater for short trips (sub-sect jon 5 .2.I.2), and that short trip di stances are more common 'in a smal 1er cì ty, average f'esi dent'i al energy consumption per unit distance to the central cone wh'ich is proport'ionately h'igher in the smallest city can be exp'lajned'

(3) The Effect of Urban Size on Residential Energy Consumption' In an jnvestigation of the relationship between urban size and resi denti al enef.gy consumpt'ion f on the sel ected ci t'i es , an .important considerat'ion'is the effect of varìat'ions in unban size 'in and compactness on nesidentìal energy use. From data Table 11 (p.1a8) , the fol I owi ng are observed:

a high average (i ) The smal lest and ne!,rest cìty of Saskatoon*, with nesidentìal density relat'ive to its popu'latjon (Tab'le 11 p.laB), has I ower nes'identjal energy consumption than either the large new cìty of Edmonton on the large old c'ity of IlIinnipeg. Although thìs may'indicate hìgher^ energy efficiency in the smal ler^ cjty, f urther data ane nequì red'

'i Edmonton was tr l,li nni peg was incorporated as a cìtY n 1873, incorporated i n 1904, and Saskatoon in 1906, and their popul at'ions i n 1906 were 98,558, 11, 167 and 3001 resPectivelY (Artib'ise 198 1, Tab'les A1-A3) . -208-

(ii ) w'ith less residential transpont enengy r"equi red to travel shonter distances, avenage residential transport energy 'in the small compact cìty of Saskatoon'is less than in the ìarger cities of Ì,l'innìpeg or Edmonton (Tab'le 13).

(iii) in Saskatoon, the smallest city, (popuìation) high avenage residential density together wjth low residentjal tnansport energy nesults ìn lower avenage nesjdential energy consumption (Tab'le 13 and F'igure 20) . Companing nes'idential compactness in the thnee c'it'ies as reflected by enengy parameters for thei r respective nesident'ial tracts low dens'ity tracts in new suburban areas have values for energy consumption which are clustered close together (Tab'le 13). However, fon higher dens'ity nesi clenti al tracts in i nnen cone edge and mature suburbs, resjdential energy consumption, and compactness varies among the cities. This variat'ion of residential consumptìon and compactness appears to reflect different stages of urban development and nedeveìopment in older, mature and .inner core edge suburbs in the three cit'ies. For examp'le, w.inn.ipeg, has highen levels of enengy consumptìon and higher residential dens'ities for older housing tracts than sim'ilar tracts in the newen cities of Edmonton and Saskatoon because it has mone older housìng.

Therefore, summarizìng the conclusìons fon sub-section 6.3.2.I:

(1) c'ity size (i.e. total popuìat'ion or households) as such does not appear significant with respect to average nesidentjal density, but does appear to be significant wjth respect to residential energy consumptìon. From limited data available for energy consumptìon, -209-

the smaller and newen city of Saskatoon appears to exhjbit lowen aver.age residential energy consumptÍon than either of two larger (old and new) cities of l,linnipeg and Edmonton.

(2) from ljmìted data for the three cìties, res'idential energy consumption decreases wjth distance fnom the urban centre, howeven, the central density crater identified for popu'lation by Newlìng (1969) wjl'l likeìy not occur if energy consumption for residentjal is replaced by ener"gy consumption by other land use functions in the centnal cone area (i.e. not by parkìng Iots);

(3) res.ident.ial enef.gy consumption varies among the three older and newer c'itjes w'ith higher consumptìon'in older aneas of Winnipeg' bui 1d'ings To the extent that Wi nni peg contì nues to have more ol der^ jn its mature and innen core edge tracts, it will'l'ikeìy cont'inue to reflect higher areal residential energy consumptjon than in the newer ci t'ies.

6.3.2.2 The Effect of Residential Densìty and Distance to the Central Core on Resident'ial Energy Consumption. The second question focuses on how changes in resident'ial density and urban tnavel distance affect residential energy consumptìon in selected urban tracts. This quest'ion involves two sub-issues: (1) how does change in res'idential density affect nesident'ial energy consumption for selected tracts? and; (2) how does travel d'istance to the urban core fnom the respectìve tnacts affect resjdential energy consumPtion?

(1) The Effect of Res'idential Density on Residential Enengy Consumpt.ion. From invest'igatìon of data fon three large cit'ies and the j r respect j ve tr.acts, the fol I ow'ing are obsenved:

jdent'ial (i ) Changes in the rat'ios of nes density to residential energy consumption fon tracts in real c'itjes incljcate jty less than I inear relat'ionships, with dens ìncreas'ing mone -210-

rapidly than energy consumption (Figunes 23-25, p. L7I'I74), In a c'ity such as Edmonton, with energy efficient newer nesidential tnacts, as r^esidential densjty incr"eases jn nelation to res'idential energy consumption (Figure 27 , p.179), the rat'ios of these variables ane sìmìlan, and the resulting less than l'inean relat'ionships approach a strajght ìine" Howeve r, ì n l^li nni peg, wh'i ch ha I ower res'identì al enengy system eff i ci enci es 'in i ts sel ected hi gher dens'ity ì nner ci ty aneas , lowen ratios of nesidential density to residential energy consumption jndicate a mone rap'id nate of change jn less than I inear relat'ionshìps (F'igu re 27).

(i'i ) At h'igher nesìdential densities, aneal res'idential energy consumption appears to 'increase but less rapìdly ìn the sel ected ci t j es . At the same t'ime, i n movi ng f rom outen suburbs to inner core edge tnacts, the rate of change of ratìos of res'idential density to residential energy consumpt'ion'is more rapid for !'linnipeg than Edmonton (Fìgure 27).

('i'ij) For" hypothetical models, cities in which, by defin'it'ion, condìtjons of high energy system effjciency are assumed, ratìos of res'idential densjty to resìdential energy consumption ane slightly higher. fon enengy effic'ient decentralized models than for compact city mode'ls (Figune 27). This is explained ìn part by 'increased energy consumptìon to power movement systems ìn compact cjties. At the same t'ime, from outer suburban tnacts j to i nner core edge areas , unden ener"gy ef f i ci ent cond t'ions , changing r^atios of nesidential dens'ity to residentjal energy consumpt'ion nesult in steep slopes which approach straight line nel at i onsh i ps .

(2) Variations'in Res'identjal Energy wìth Travel Distance to the Central Core from Selected Resident'ial Tracts. The second sub-jssue which'is addressed is "how does change'in tnavel distance to the unban core affect residential energy consumption?" . zIL

0bsenvations nelate to older and newen resjdentjal areas, and also to variations'in nesident'ial enengy consumptjon with d'istance from the centre for both new and older suburbs.

Based on estimated data for a limited number of res'idential tr^acts in l,l'innipeg, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, resjdential ene¡gy consumption decneases with djstance from the central core (Figures 29 and 31). However, enengy consumption does not change with d'istance in a cons'istent way for al1 cjties and tracts. For examp'le, aìthough values fon residentjal energy consurnption in outer suburbs are close fon the thnee cities, for selected'innen core edge and mature subunban tracts, Sharp diVengences occur jn res'ident'ial energy consumpt'ion. This is explaìned in part, by variations in age and condition of dwellings, with djstance fnom the centre. For example, in new suburban areas jn the three c'ities housìng is relative'ly energy efficjent while among older areas there is considerable variatìon in consumption and efficiency.

From thjs evidence and from section 3.3.5, observat'ions can be s umma ri zed :

(1) selected ol der nesiclenti al tracts in Wjnnipeg consume mone ener"gy' and consequently such areas'in that city ane less enengy efficient than comparable nesjdential areas 'in Edmonton or Saskatoon; and

(Z) res'irlentjal enengy consumptjon in the selected cìtjes decneases with djstance from the unban centne' except toward the edges of some outer subunbs (e.g. lllinnipeg). In such tracts, increases in aneal ¡esidentjal enengy consumption are expla'ined by higher resjdential dens'it'ies (Figure 9, p.75). -2L2-

6.3.2.3 The Effect of Age and Residentjal Building Conditions on Res'identjal Energy Consumption. From residential tract data in Edmonton and 14'inn'ipeg which are approximately similar in size but different'in age and building conditions, thnee obsenvatjons emerge about resident'ial enengy consumption with distance from the centne:

(1) nesident'ial energy system effjcìency appears to be greater fon residenti al tracts 'in the newer city of tdmonton than in s'im'ilar tracts jn the olden city of W'innipeg (Figunes 31 and 32);

(2) converseìy, in the olden city of tllinnipeg, the increase in nesiclential enengy consumption fon selected olden residentjal tnacts close to the central core js greater than for comparable resicjent'ial tracts toward the centne of the newer city of Edmonton (Fìgure 31); and

(3) for sel ected ol der r"esi dent'ial tracts ì n the ol den cjty of Winnìpeg, residential enengy consumptìon increases more graduaììy js from a selected mature suburb to an innen core edge suburb than the case for a newer city, such as Edmonton (Figure 32).

Res j al 6 .3 .2.4 Urban Energy Ef f i ci enci es i n Sel ected Ci t'i es and denti Tracts ancl Thei r Use of Avai I abl e Energy. An obiect'ive of thi s djssertat'ion considered urban residential enengy poì ìcies whjch could help to achieve a balance between energy product'ion and useful urban 'in consumpt'ion and as a consequence could nesult i ncreased urban enengy system ef f i cì ency . The f ol ì ow'i ng observat'ions about ene rgy consumpti on 'in resident'ial tracts cons'ider th'is balance. -213-

(1) Internal Resident'ial Energy. For the components of nesident'ial energy consumpt'ion internal to dwelling units in the selected " nesident.ial tnacts, under scenarios I-III (Figure 17, p.146), si gni f i cant opportuni t'ies ex'ist to neduce energy use. Fon exampl e, as enetgy policies change from scenario I - III, and as energy conservation is'increased, a reduction of residential enengy consumptìon of approximateìy 30 percent is possible under Scenanio II, and in excess of 50 percent under Scenario III.

trom Scenarìos I-III, substantjal improvements in r esjdent'ial enengy system ef f i ci ency occur. Fon i nd'ivi dual dwe'lì i ng ' ì arge impnovements'in residentìal effic'iency are possìble fon space condjtion'ing and water heat. Fnom Table 16 (p.163), reductions in 'in consumption of up to 46 percent may be achievable. However, absolute tenms, such'improvements'in residentjal systems effìciency are not ìarge, considerìng that systems efficiencies for jnternal residential energy are in the order of 16 pencent of total energy jn the U.S. (Fow'ler 1984) and between 12 and 13 percent of total energy in Canada. Th'is assumes that total system efficiency for conventional clomestjc fuel systems 'is jn the onder of 45 pencent and that 27 percent represents the propor^tion of internal residential energy.

In both new and retnofitted older hguses, the system efficiency for typ.ical resident'ial fuel systems (e.g.45 per cent) can be substant'ia1ìy incneased with more energy efficient funnaces. The j enengy ef f i ci ency of dwel I i ng cles'ign and constnuct on can al so be improved. For exampìe, jn energy efficient dwellìngs l'ike the Saskatchewan conservat'ion house (Besant and Schoenau 1978) internal -214- res'ident'ial system effic'iency is in the onder oî 22 pencent of total enengy compared with 12 pencent fon conventional urban housing. This difference of 10 percent 'in internal residential energy efficiency represents a substant'ial incnease in unban enengy conservatìon.

(2) Extennal Enengy for Residential Tnansport" Unban residential transport energy for. journey-to-work is a component of residential energy which is external to dwellings but within discretionary control of residents. Under Scenanio I reduct'ions in transport energy consumption of more than 40 pencent ane possib]e, wìth reduct'ions'in the onder of 20 percent unden Scenario II, and an add'iti onal 20 percent under Scenari o I I I. The comb'ined ef fect of internal and external efficiencies results in reductions in res.idential energy consumption by 30-35 pencent under Scenario II, and an additional 30-35 percent unden Scenario III'

Most urban residenti al tnansport depends on pr^'ivate automob'iles wjth energy system efficiencies of 5-10 percent (Cook L974; Fowler 1984). Gray (1980) has argued that energy efficient designs can result ìn automobi'le energy system efficienc'ies whjch ane at least double convent'ional figures. Therefore' a figure in the order of 15 percent appears realjstic. A'lthough public transpor^t vehicles represent a smalìen component of urban transpont energy they are mor.e energy effic'ient. For exampìe, diesel buses have system efficiencies of 18 percent (Fowler 1984), trolley buses powered by thermoelectricity have system efficiencies of 20 pencent wh'ile those powered by hydroel ectri c'ity have system ef f ic'i encì es of 60-80 pencent (Cook L974; Fowler 1984). Therefore urban transjt w'ith high system efficjenc'ies can substantialìy affect urban transport energy effic'iencies'if they ane widely introduced. However, most -2r5-

urban transit vehicles and private automobi'les depend on internal combustion engines with much lower energy system efficiencies. Consequentìy, externaì residential enengy for jounney-to-work and for most othen unban travel, reflects energy system efficìencies for pnivate automobiles. If transport energy for all unban purposes is in the onder of L2.5 percent of total energy and if transpott system effjciency'improvements of 5-15 percent are poss'ible for pr"ivate urban tnanspot't, then the effect on total energy consumpt'ion of such 'incneases in energy system ef f iciency 'iS in a range of 0.6 to 1.9 percent. With energy system efficiency fon pub'lic transport vehicles ìn the order of 65 pencent, the effect on total energy efficiency would be in the range of 0.6 to 7.5 percent.

Therefore, on the consumption side, the largest potentìal factor for impr.oving total energy effic'iency is internal res'idential energy use w'ith potentìal 'increases in enengy eff jciency of up to 1.0 percent or in a range fr^om 12 to 22 percent. Incneases in transpont enengy effic'iency are estimated to incnease total residenti a-l energy ef f i ciency approxìmate'ly an addit'ional 6 percent.

(3) Energy Production. Available urban energy potentials, particulanly fossil fuel energy vary considerab'ly among urban regions. Some c'it'ies are almost total'ly dependent on foss j I fuel s for energy suppljes while other^s have gneater access to hydroelectricity. cities which are the most dependent on fossil fuels have consiclerable potentj als for fuel substitution. Although exper.imental data on the suppìy side of total urban energy are not developed in this jnvestigatìon, data from the l'iterature on the 'ind'i companati ve ef f i c1 enci es of energy systems are usef ul i n cat'ing conditions for achjeving a balance between energy productjon and consumptìon for thermoelectnical 1y dependent cities. -2L6-

Thermoel ect n'i c systems whi ch genenate onìy el ectri c'ity represent system efficiencies of 14 and 35 pencent, respect'ive'ly, for nuclean and coal fined power plants (Cook I974; Fowler 1984). Add'itional system losses in power transmjssion funther neduce effjciency to approx'imate'ly 11 and 31 percent, respect'ive1y. However a central urban enengy production system which efficjently genenates heat and electnicity has a system efficiency in the nange of 45-75 percent' By comparison, a typica] 1970's r'esidential gas furnace had a system effjciency in the order of 45 percent (Cook 1976) and mone recent domestic funnaces are in the order of 63 percent. By comparison, in hydroelectnically senved regions, system efficiency for electnicity used for elect¡ic heat was in the order of 83 (Cook percent 1976) "

A compa¡ison of system eff jc'iency of energy product'ion in regions whìch are dependent on hydroe'lectr"ic energy with r^egions dependent on fossil fuels ind'icates s'ignificant differences. These efficiency differences can be in the nange of 38-69 pencent whene 'is no heat component from thermoelectricìty productìon used to a djfference of between 8 and 23 percent when both heat and electricity are opt'imally used. A comparison of system efficiency fon res'idential gas heat with hydroelectnic nes'istance heat indjcates a system effic'iency djfference in favour of res'istance heating which ranges from 20 percent for an effic'ient gas furnace t0.33 percent for a convent'ional domestic unit. clearly' sign'ificant jncreases in system efficjency ane poss'ible for nes'idential energy systems in whjch use'is closely matched with

s uppl y.

Energy production represents approx'imately 15 percent of total energy consumption in Canada. If for selected cìties the min'imum system efficiency for'.a thenmoelectricity ìs in the order of 30 the proportion of total energy nepresented by useful percent then jf energy production is onìy about 4.5 percent. However, both -217 - the thermal and electrical components of thermoelectnicity are optimized (assuming convent'ionaì fossil fuels), the proportion of usef ul energy can be incneased to approx'imate'ly 13 per"cent of total ener.gy. Therefone, an ìncrease in efficiency of up to 8.5 percent would be possible fon energy production. However, this magn'itude of incnease in system efficiency for ener!¡y product'ion'iS only poss'ible'in cit'ies such as Saskatoon or Edmonton. For Winn'ipeg, which ìs hydroelectnically dependent and fon which enengy system efficiency fon electricity productìon alneady exceeds 90 pencent at 'l the power p'lant (Cook I97 4), there i s I ess potenti al f or a a rge i ncrease i n system ef f i ci ency of ene rgy pr^oduct i on .

A combination of data from sub-sect'ions 6.3.2.1 to 6.3.2.4 Suggests a range of increase fon total energy system efficiency as a nesult of matching intennaì resident'ial energy, external residential ene¡gy, and energy product'ion. Thenefore, if total res'idential enengy effjciency increases for consumptìon a¡e approximateìy 16 percent, and with 9 percent added for increased efficjency in energy productìon, the incnease 'in total enengy efficiency thnough a balance of nesjdential system potentials js in the order of 25 Percent.

Edmonton 'il lustnates the potentia] for matchi ng of supply and production in a large city. If, during the yeans 1981-2021, electrical consumption in Edmonton js withjn a range of 12.9-15'9 PJ/Y (Ross 1979), and the potentìaì thermal ene¡gy avajlable from this quantìty of thermoelectnjcity'is within a range of 20'24 PJ/Y' then 13-16 PJ/Y js the range of usable thermal enengy which might be available for residential purposes, or 55-60 percent of energy pnoduct'ion. Howeven, w'ith urban resident'ial energy needs alone in a range of 10-16 PJ/Y, a cìose correspondence could be achjeved between potential'ly available thenmal energy fnom power productìon (e.g. 13-16 PUY) ) and urban res'identì al needs ' -2t8-

This example suggests that ìf res'identjal dens'ities in a fossìl fueì-dependent city, such as Edmonton, can be increased to levels which are sufficient to feasibly distribute thermal energy (e.9. ìn excess of 1740 dwellings pen square kjlometre), and jf thermal energy can be distnibuted from thenmoelectnic p'lants, then total residential energy system efficiency can be substantjalìy increased and a closer balance can be achievecl between useful urban enengy pnoduction and consumPtion.

6.4 POLICY IMPLICATIONS

The final sect'ion of this chapter outlines po'l'icy'implications of the method and ì ts app'l i cati on f or u rban energy p'lanni ng . Ït al so cons jders 'imp'licat'ions of questions and relationships about which observations and conclusìons we¡e presented in section 6.3.

6.4.L The l'4ethod as a Tool f or Urban Pl anni ng

This method of organizing and modelfing urban energy data can be 'in-depth a usef ul tool for pì anni ng agenci es whi ch periodi cal 1y requ'i re analysis of urban energy consumption and system efficiency, and use avaìlable time-series data. The method can be applied to any numben of c'it'ies and/on tnacts wjthjn cìt'ies unden a variety of land use conditions. Real data avai I able f rom uti I ìt'ies, stati st'ics agenci es and municipa] plannìng bodies can be used together with estimated data avo.idi ng the necessi ty of speci al'ized sunveys. The method can al so be systemat.ica'l1y re'itenated to monitor and majntain tjme-series data in a consìstent way. In this nespect'it can be useful in policy formulation to present t'ime-related energy change in cìties whìch nesults fnom -2L9- public intenventjon, changìng energy prices or unban gnowth. The method can also be useful ìn mon'itoring incnemental changes in energy use in cities which are heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

6.4.2 Some implications of the Questions and Relationships Invest'igated

Anaìysìs of the obsenvations 'in section 6.3 suggests some possible ìmp'lications for future urban policy w'ith respect to (1) unban size and compactness; (2) aneal res'ident'ial densjty and travel distance; (3) age and condit'ion of residential areas; and (a) the eff ic'ient use of energy potent'ials in urban resìdential areas.

6.4.2.I Urban Size and Compactness. Aìthough further research data are required to establ'ish optimum cond'itions of city size and compactness relative to urban res'idential energy consumpt'ion and efficiency, fnom available data and the conclusions 'in sub-sect'ion 6.4.1 the folìowing pol'icy impl'ications ane suggested:

(l) In large thermaì ìy dependent cities, resident'ial tracts should be more compact (e.g. denser than approximately L740 dwellings per Square kilometne) so that thermal energy can be economica'lly djstributed fon nesidential punposes. Conversely, new 1ow dens'ity nesidentjal developments should be djscounaged at the outer fringes of thermaìly-dependent large cìties, unless such residential areas are designed to operate with a min'imum nequi nement for depìet'ing energy resources, such as natural gas or oi'l'

(2) In thermoelectrical ly dependent cjt'ies, development densitjes should be planned to make'it feasible to optimize productjon and consumption of both electricity and ther"mal energy. Also, .increased use of electricity for effic'ient urban transport to serve high and medium density residentjal areas should be encouraged. -220-

(3) With respect to tnansport enengy and urban compactness, dense p'olycentric res'idential conf igurat'ions with wel'l spaced compact urban cones on nodes, ane more enengy efficient than'lange concentric ci ti es with I ow densi ty 'inner c'ity tnacts and central core edge areas, and d'ispersed I ow dens'ity suburbs.

6.4.2.2 Res'identi al Dens j ty and Travel Di stance. Although f urther 'investigation of the extent and energy characteristics of residential-related unban tr"ips in the selected large cities'is requined, from the limited clata in th'is investigation, the fo11ow'ing pol'icy 'imp1 i cat'ions are suggested wi th nespect to resi denti al density and tnavel distance to the central core:

(1) Urban policies that ane intended to improve energy characterìstìcs of journey-to-work to the cone should seek to achieve multiple benefits fnom energy conservation. For example, transport secton energy benefits should seek to improve the economics of distr.ibut'ion of alternative energy (e.g. thermal ) as we]1 as to neduce 'in total househol d consumpt'ion.

(Z) Energy effic'ient large cities ìmp'ly dense and compact resìdent'ial arnangements with shont travel djstances to work. Although further investigation is r.equi red to determine more precise nesident'ial density and tnavel distance panametens for optimum resident'ial enengy effjciency in large c'itjes, jndications from these observations are that average adjusted travel distances to the core should be less than 5 kilometres. This will likely resu'lt in 'li average resi dent'ial densi ti es consi der"ably excess of 3000 dweì ngs pen square k'ilometre (Table 17) w'ith some ¡esidentjal density maxima 'in excess of 10,000 dwellings pen square kjlometre (Figure 31) .

(3) Many inner cone edge and mature residentìal tracts which are located close to centnal cones in the selected cities conta'in -22t-

resìdential densit'ies which appean to be adequate to distnibute thermal energy economicaì1y. In fossil fuel-dependent cities, such as Edmonton and Saskatoon, whene thermal energy from nearby power pìants is available and economic to distribute (Shinyei 1978), continued monitoring and anaìysis of energy system alternatives is required to confirm the feasibjlity of unban energy altennatives such as d'istrict heating. For examp'le, in residential areas jn which energy conservation pnograms are introduced to improve enengy effi ci ency for i ndi vi dual dwel I i ngs, unban enengy conservati on programs should also consider the futune potential fot' such areas to become heat sinks fon econom'ic distribution of thermaì enengy.

(4) Some older unban nes'idential tnacts in the selected cities may r"equine restnucturing and selective redeve'lopment to ach'ieve more compact energy efficient yet socially acceptable unban arrangements. In addit'ion, increased mixes of land use will be required in residential areas in orden to neduce effective travel djstances, not only for work trìps, but also fon shopping, Pensonal business and other frequent unban tnavel.

(5) Mone energy efficient unban transpont ìmplies ìncreased vehjcle occupanc'ies, shifts to more energy efficient vehicles, and neduced use of private automobiles for short urban trips (Cannien 1974). A shift to mone energy efficient transport modes is also requined for 'large cities. Subject to the urban design of cities, this may ìnclude electrìc powered horizontal and vert'ical movement systems, with capacities in the nange of 1000 - 12,000 passengers pen lane per hour (Gover^nment of Beìgium 1986). At low areal densjtìes, car and van pooì s, and teìephone assi sted trans'it serv'ices can al so neduce urban energy consumPtion.

6.4.2.3 Age and Condition of Res'identjal Aneas. In areas of urban residentjal nedevelopment on residential rehabilitatjon, olden (poor^ly ìnsulated) hous'ing consumes substantial ly mone internal resjdentjal -222-

enengy (Tab'le 5), and uses this energy less efficiently than new or netrofitted older housing (CMHC L977). This has the following 'imp'l'ications fon residential energy policy:

(1) Universal programs that prov'ide ener"gy conservat'ion ass'istance for both new and older dwell.ings, might be neconsidened'in favour of prognams targetted to least energy effjcient res'idential tracts, or' to pockets of energy inefficient dwellings within such tnacts. Th'is js particular'ly impontant to reduce diffenent'ials'in nes'idential energy efficiency between areas of old and new housing.

(2) District heating us'ing hot water as a ther^mal medium can be a realistic and incneasingly feasible technoìogy for compact urban devel opment (Danì sh Board of D'istrict Heatì nS 1977). This j s par^tìcularly impontant'in new hìgh and medium densjty resìdential aneas, and in olden resìdential areas, which are subject to nedevelopment (Morofsky 1980).

(3) To 'identify and priorize older cities, and urban resjdential tracts that would benefit from increased resident'ial energy conservation, appl'ication of the method outl ined in this djssertat'ion can be useful to s'imulate change in enengy characterîstics.

6.4"2.4 Urban Residential Energy System Effìciencies in Selected Lange Cit jes and Residential Tnacts, and Thej r^ Use of Ava'ilable Enengy. In thermally dependent citìes three aspects of energy need to be optimìzed fon most efficient res'idential energy conditions:(1) internal resident'ial needs for thermal energy, Such as space conditionjng and water heat; (2) external resident'ial transport energy uSe, such as eneng¡/ consumption for urban travel; and (3) balanced production and di str-jbution of heat and electricity for res'identjal and other" unban purposes. 0ptimized, these three aspeets of unban energy can result in -223- total energy system efficiency incneases in the range of 28-38 percent.

Electricity produced fnom eithen hydt'opower or thermoelectric systems which co-generate heat and electric'ity can powen urban transport mone efficientlJ, oñ a systems basis, than fossil fuels. However, for this to occur, both the heat and electrìcity components of energy pnoduction must be balanced, Although this js difficult, with both heat and electnicity demand fluctuatìng daily, weekly and annually (D'iamant 1970), maximum res'idential energy efficiency can on'ly occur when transport, housing and energy po'licies are effective'ly coordinated to balance enengy production and use (Figure 8)" However, resolving the inst'itutional problems in such coond'ination is no small chal'lenge (Smith Auld and Associates 1976).

The interrelationship of tnansport, housing and energy policies has the following quantitative implications for increases urban enengy effj ci ency:

(1) Residential/commercial land uses repnesent the langest sectoral area of energy demand or almost 40 pencent (Fow'ler 1984). The 'internal resìdent'ial energy components of space and water conditionjng nepresent'ing mone than B0 percent of this demand. Most is requ'ined at temperatures of less than 100oC, and is used at system efficiencies of less than 15 pencent (Ford et al 1975).

(2) Although substantial increases in residential enengy effic'iency ane poss'ible in urban areas and within ind'ividual residential dwelìing units, beyond certain limits, fundamental changes jn building arrangements and resident'ial areas are requìred. For example, economic distribut'ion of thermal energy in urban areas nequìnes a minimum res'idential density in the order of 1740 dwellings pen square kilometre (Danish Board of Distnict Heat'i nS 1977). -224-

(3) Intennal residential energy system efficiency for space conditioning and water heat can be'increased up to 50 percent, to at least 22 percent.

(4) For the extennal or tnansport component of resjdential energy system efficiency increases of 7 percent are achievable.

(5) For energ¡y production, system efficiency incneases varies from less than 14 percent at the powen plant (for nuc'lean electric systems without use of thenmal enengy) to as high as 92 per"cent for hydroelectnic systems.However, with energy production on'ly about 15 percent of total national energy, even at 85 pencent efficiency unde¡ideal conditions, the energy production component cannot exceed 13 percent. Thenefore energy sav'ings for this component are wi th'i n a range of 2-13 percent of total nat'ional energy.

(6) Total system efficiency 'incneases which are possible thnough a combination of efficiency improvements in energy pt'oduction, nesidential transport enengy, and l'nternal residentjal energy' ane jn the range of 16-27 Percent.

In conclusion,'it is argued that the urban planning method for modelìing energy use which'is developed in thjs thesis offers an analyticaì and monitoring technique which can be peniodjcalìy reiterated usi ng systemati c t'ime series data to pnesent three-d'imens'ional change i n energy use. It can also provide a first approxìmat'ion of energy characterìstics that may be expected for other ìarge citjes and can help to jdentify where significant energy waste may be occurrìng in urban a neas . APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1 - ALTERNATIVE URBAN MODELS: DICTNTRALIZED AND COMPACT HYPOTHETICAL CITIES IN A NORTH AMERICAN CONTEXT

Plate L: Diagrams of a Hypothetical Decentralized City.

Plate 2: D'iagrams of a Hypothetical Compact C'ity.

Plate 3 Project fon Hypothetical Northern Compact City - Schematjc Plan and Site Plan.

Plate 4: Typical Section through Central Spine.

APPENDÏX 2 - COMPUTER DATA FOR ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RESIDINTIAL TRACTS FOR THE SILECTED CITIES: WINNIPEG, EDMONTON AND

SASKATOON.

Pl ate 1: Computer Data, l,linnìpeg: Annual Consumption Per Postal Code Area for the Data Year 1981 - 82, Census Tract 017, r.es'identi a'l , commerci al and j ndustr^j al consumpt jon of natural gas 'in Total MCF pen customer.

Pl ate 2: Computer Data, Edmonton: Enengy Consumption for Selected Tracts for the Year 1981. Tracts 032, 048, and 025, inc'lusive, res'ident'ial and commercial consumption in g'igajoules.

Plate 3: Computer Data, Saskatoon: Annual Consumptjon Per Postal Code Area for 1981. Census Tract 008. Residential and Commencial Consumpt'ion of Natural Gas 'in Cub'ic l'letres (M3). -225- APPINDIX 1 - PLATE 1: DIAGRAMS OF A HYPOTHETICAL DTCENTRALIZED CITY

ô XrfcH¿x Gaarr xt Racnrirræ

, O hll.t U ¡ ô o d F ù l¡t a fa a -) u I T C I b c( u xL f\) REcJÈ.ATroH fuX¿ l\) Or

a I IIJ o i¿ ILE .t

To HloHw^y Ê qAJLRo^o

S0URCE: Percival Goodman. 1977. The Double E. New York: Anchor Books: 160. APPENDIX 1 PLATE 2: DIAGRAMS OF A HYPOTHETICAL COMPACT CITY

¡hen C 6 Ou re5,deñtiòl

lt. ,ti àl t afeA 4420 feet I re irdent '¿r -l erea 1 500 Inner feet I I dcht l\) \¡f\)

5_ afs hes Scctor I Ra¿\¿l 0 Imqrgency 0 VertiC¿l hop /r€w crewJ Hi 5ecror 3? I 2qo 1.", ',ì v/\ U e5 8840 feet + T I \ 3l ertic¿l 5ect;on of terr¿ce ¿t A /si m¡ ì9 29 I ,e'ets CrTY Li,Tlf S (pl¿tformil ?0 240 feel At ñatrmuñ 5r¿c 30 .¿nd for ùu'lengl t conclu!ron gf ôome5 ònó fi.lt conjtrvctioñ stòge i¿Cilrtres ,\ fYl'ICAL PLAN FOR ONI Ll]VliL lN (-()Nll'AC]' CllY I igurc 3-l TOI' ÅND SIDI: VtEW OF COf,.tP¡,CT CtTy l',,¡ul.rlr<:rr: ?50.fiÐ B¡sc ¡rrr 1.2 squ¡re m¡¡(,s. As the citv tr\)\\,: 1,,2 millrrrn pcoplr', rls iìcrÊiìt.ìrìd d¡.rñcter arc erprntJrd ro .lrnrclrsro¡rs d()uL)l( t¡ì()se \lì()\\.n

SOURCE: G.B. Dantzìg and T.L. Saaty. 1973. The Compact C'ity. San Francisco: l,ll.H. Freeman and Co.: Fig. 3-1. APPTNDIX 1 - PLATE 3: PR0JECT FOR A HYP0THTTICAL N0RTHERN C0MPACT CITY

S CHTMAT IC INDUSTRIAL PLAN EXPANSION

RESID WEB WEB

RESIDENTIAL WEB WEB DUS I l'\) l\) co I

S ITE PLAN

o km ç APPENDIX i. PLATE 4:

PROJECT FOR A HYPOTHETICAL NORTHERN CITY.

TYPICAL SECTION THROUGH CENTRAL SPiNI.

I l'\) l\)(o

I

EIE

MEDIUI.4 DENSITY RIS I DENTIAL HIGH DENSITY CORE ARTA RESIDENTIAL COMME RC I AL INNER RING INDUSTRIAL OFFICE ZONE APPENDIX 2 - PI-ATE 1: CO.PWM DATA - MNNIPEG AIINJAL ENERGY COI6I}4PTION PER POSTAL CODE AREA FOR THE DATA YEAR 1981-82. CENSUS TRACT 017, RTSIDENTIAL, CO.{VIRCIAL AI{D INDI,sTRIAL MNSU4PTION OF I\ATTRAL GAS IN TOTAL ]'[F PR CI6TOIIR

RUN DATE: II/07/83 TIt€: 2L 32 æ GRTATER MNNIPEG cAS CO,PANY PR0GRAT4: MqPOST PAGE 41

I'4ARIGTIIU YEARLY COISI},PTION PR P6TAL CME AREA FM 1982 PßTAL RESIDENTIAL -IRATI'CTNSUS RAI\GE RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL CO{€RCIAL Cü|€RCIAL Cü,TVERCIAL I]IXJSTRIAL TOTALS CDE GENERAL SPACE HEAT SPACE i-IEAT GENMAL SP¡CE HEAT SPACE I-IIAT & OTHER & OTHER R3G 2J3 0i7m <7Æ 0 1 B 0 0 009 125 - 140 0 2 2 0 0 004 14n - 160 0 i 3 0 0 004 > 160 0 0 17 0 0 00I7 0 -----n ----E ------õ ------õ-----E-

C0NSIÌ4PTION (t"CF) 0 513 4,2I3 0 0 0 0 5,726 I l\) AVTRAGE ( t'trF/cUSTOER) 0 In 173 0 0 0 i6B (¡) 0 a R3G 017tÐ 3K9 160 0 0 0 0 0 1 01 ----T- --T---- COtStj'lPTION (¡rcF) 0 0 i01 0 0 -T5,161 0 5,262 A\ÆRAGE (Î'CF/C|.5T0'ER) 0 0 101 0 0 5,161 0 2,631 IOTALS 01700 <1â 6 72 t22 2 12 2 o 216 125-140 0 n 540 3 0 086 14n-160 0 27 860 2 1 0 i16 > 160 0 103 615 0 14 Æ 778 -6 ------m ----w7 ------2 ------T----1196-0 ---37 ---w CONSL¡',|PTI0N (l'CF) 17 37,n7 175,205 ro2 16,148 77,ffis 0 305,914 AVTRAGE (I'f,F/CUSTOER) 14 161 199 51 520 L,572 0 255

SOURCE: Cmputer Servìces Departnent. Greater tJinnìpeg Gas Corpany, hli nni peg, tr4anitoba. APPENDIX 2 - PLAIE 2: C0'lPttl-ER DATA - EIÌONION ANNJAL ENERGY C0tStl'4PTI0N Fm SELTCTEÐ CENSUS IRACTS FOR THE YFAR 1981. TRACTS 032, 048 and 025, IItrLUSIVE, RESIDENTIAL 41.¡D C0vI,ERCIAL C0t\St vPTI0[\ IN GIGA]üJLIS

ENERGY MNL]4PTIÙ! FOR SELECTED IRACTS æ/r7 lu r.rc" ciTY 0F ED,ON[0N *i* FM THE YEAR 1981 MEASIREÐ IN GJ (RESrmNrrAL AND m{"ERCiAL) INÌ\R TRACT (O32.OO)

--- RESIMNTIAL ------CO,Í'ERCIAL --- EI\ERGY CONSTI'4PTION ENERGY CONSI.}4PTION

49,720.n 453,335.62 t f\) (/.)

l4qrRE TRACT (048.00) I

--- RESIDEÌ{TIAL ------C0'{r€RCIAL --- ENERGY COI{SI,I"IPTI ON ENIRGY COTSI,}4PTIOI{

2ffi,677.69 53,848.03

üJTR TRACT (025.00)

--- RESIDENTIAL ------CO,¡ERCIAL --- ENTRGY CONSIT4PTION EIüRGY CONSI,I'PTION

146,112.56 y,233.72

SOI-RCE: Corputen Servìces Divis'ion, lbrLlrwestenn tit'ilities L'irnitecl, Edrnnton, Alhrerta. APPENDIX2-PLATE3 COMPUTER DATA - SASKATOON ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER POSTAL CODE AREA FOR 198 1" CENSUS TRACT OO8. RESIDENTIAL AND CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS IN CUBIC MTTRES (M 3¡

REPORT NO. 02 ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER POSTAL CODE AREA FOR 1981 L2/ L3/83

POSTAL CODE CENSUS TRACT RESIDENTIAL COMMERC IAL

57K 4H9 00800 1 ,020,26 3

27 K 4K3 00800 195,485 S7 K 4K5 00800 219 ,618 L,232,755

S7 K4 K7 00800 4,707 I S7 K5 E5 00800 1 ,989 f\)(, f\) S7K 5H5 00800 17 ,381 407 ,096 ¡ S7K 5T6 00800 r ,142,r39

S7K 5X2 00800 5,427 499,603 S7K 5ZB 00800 25,8L7 54,149

S7K 645 00800 4 1 490 17 ,46L s7K 6C2 00800

S7L OY7 00800 40,501 S7L OYg 00800 26,68L

S7M 115 00800 263,272 TOTAL 00800 1,194,681 44,690,150

SOURCE: Saskatchewan Power Corporation Data Centre, Regina. GLOSSARY

AERCB. Al berta Ener"gy Resources Conservation Board.

AREAL. Pe ntai n i ng to an a nea .

AREAL DENSITY. Density of an a nea l ar"ger than the anea of a bui I dì ng s'ite (e.g. census tract) j BI0I'4ASS. Al I matter of pl ant and an jmal ori g'in , exc'ludì ng foss I f uel s .

CENSUS. A periodic counting of national popu'lati on and other socìo-economic characteri sti cs.

CENSUS METRQP0LITAN AREA (CMA). The major laboun market anea of an unban'ized core (or cont'inuously bui 1t-up anea) hav'ing 100,000 on mone popul ation.

CENSUS TRACT. A penmanent small census geostatistical area 'lar establ i shed i n ge unban communities with the assi stance of I ocal specì al i sts i n urban and soc'i al scj ence research. CITY. A'large ìmportant community; in Canada' a municipaìity of the highest rank.

CLIMATICALLY-STRESSED. Subject to extreme variat'ion in temperature and related envinonmental cond'it'ions. In northern envinonments, th'is nefers to seasonal extnemes of cold temperature.

CMHC. Canada Montgage and Housing Corpor"atìon.

C0GENERATION. The procluctjon of two useful forms of enengy from the same process. In an unban area, hot water for resjdentjal space heat'ing'is first run through turb'ines to generate electricity (see also distrjct heating)'

C0NCENTRIC CITY. A city with jts urban concentrat'ion and gr"owth around a common centre.

CONSERVATION. In a strict'ly economic sense, it is the redistribut'ion of use lates of resounces towards the future. In a more general wâY, consenvatjon may be thought of as reduc'ing the consuñrption of ã nesource in the near futune so as to have more of it available jn the more clistant future. Also the prevention of waste on losses.

n1') - LJJ -234-

DECENTRALIZED CITY. A city in which urban growth and development is dist¡ibuted away fnom one central point to many nodes on gnowth points (see also P0LYCENTRIC CITY).

DEPLETI0N. The opposjte of conservat'ion,'it is the redistrjbution of use rates toward the Pnesent.

DEVICT 0R MACHINE EFTICIENCY. Effic'iency = usefuì energy or work out. total energy ot' wor^k i n The rat'io can neven be greater than one. Thìs is first Iaw efficiency or^ device effjciency in which the device is a heat engine such as an automobile or a home funnace.

DIRECT C0NTR0L 0F ENERGY. The ability of consumers to have control over the type of fuel and the technology which is used in heating thein homes (e.g. furnace or heating device). Such contnol al so j ncl udes deci si on mak'ing on cho'ice wi th respect to the efficiency w'ith which nesident'ial enengy is used.

DISTRiCT HEATING. The supp'ly of heat in the fonm of steam or hot water to a group of bui'ld'ings from a central sounce such as a cledicated ther.mãl pl ant or f nom co-product'ion, cogeneration, recyc'led or neject heat sources.

DI^JELLING 0R DWELLING UNIT. A house on apartment that is a res'idence. The wor.ds are usual'ly synonymous. It is abbneviated DU. (See a'lso residence).

EFFICIENCY. Ef f i c'iencY of a machìne, on mone genenally, of any process in which some energy o r work is put in and some combination of work or energy comes out, i s the rati o of the des'i ned output (wonk or energy) to the input. EMR. Ministry of Energy, Mines and Resources (Canada).

END-USE TNERGY EFFICIENCY. The efficiency of energy for any task whjch'is ultimate'ly responsible fo¡ energy consumed and the effic'iency of jts consumPtion.

ENERGY C0NSERVATI0N. The prevention of waste or unnecessany ìoss ln energy potentìaì as it changes from a state of low entropy io hi sh ent ropy.

[NTRQPY. A measune of the amount of energy no longer capable of jnto An 'index of energetic useful ness. Eveny conVersion work. 'is time enengy js transformed f rom one state to anothen, a pena'lty exacted iñ a loss in the amount Öf available energy to perform useful work in the future. EXAJ0ULt. In SI units a unit of ene¡gy which nepnesents 1018 jou'les' It i s abb nev'i ated EJ . -235-

FLUIDIZED BED COMBUSTI0N.. A process in which combustible materials are ìntroduced 'into a greater volume of hot inert particles contained 'in a chamber and majnta'ined'in a state of turbulence by a stneam of gas (a'i r") f rom bel ow. Durì ng thei r thermal conversion, the pnocess can be pressurized.

FOSSIL FUELS. Fuels such as coal, crude oil, natural gas, oil shales, and oi I sands, formed f rom rèma'ins of pl ants. FUEL. Any combust'ible materials whìch give off heat; also materjals which can be fissionized in a cha'in reactjon to pnoduce heat (e.9., nuclear enengy).

GIGAJ0ULE. In SI units a un'it of enengy which repnesents 109 joules or j GJ one b'il I on joul es It i s abbr evi ated "

GROSS NATI0NAL PR0DUCT ( GNP ). A measure of the total flow of goods and se rv'i ces p roduced byan economy over a pant'icular tìme peniod, normal ly a year. It'i s obtai ned by val u'ing outputs of goods and senvices at market pf i ces and then aggnegat'ing. HEAT. The transfer of ener^gy from one body to another as the result of a dì ffenence 'in temperature. As such 'it 'is the abì ì ity to nai se the temperature or change the phase state of a colder substance.

HEAT EXCHANGTR. A device in which heat fr"om a hot fluid is transferred to a cold fluid.

HEAT SINK. An env'i nonment e'ither natunal or man-made in which heat ìs transferred from a hot body (e.g. thermoelectric plant) to a cold body (e.g. a cooling pond or an urban heat distnibutìon network).

HIGH-GRADE (0R HIGH-TEMPERATURE) HEAT. Heat which exceeds a tempenatune of 100oC.

HOUSEHOLD. A group of persons lìving together; pertainìng to a home. (See also RESIDENCE).

HYDROELECTRIC. The use of a head of water (e.g. from a lake or r^ìver) passed thnough a turb'ine to genenate electricity.

HYPOTHETICAL. Based on an assumed on supposed hypotheses. IEA. International Energy Agency.

INTERCENSAL. Between census counts. -236-

INTERNAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY. The total energy consumed withjn a dweì l'ing (e.g. space heat, waten heat, and app'l'iance enengy).

J0ULE. A unit of wot'k or energy equal to 10 ,000,000 engs or ,24 calories. Electnìcally, it represents rh e energy expended in one second by a current of one ampene at a potential of one volt; abb r evi ated J . It i s the standa nd uni t of energy ìn the SI or Systeme International .

J0URNEY-T0-tlORK. Commuti ng travel to emp'loyment, usual ìy da i 1y retu rn t ri ps f rom a res'i dence to a wo rk p'l ace .

KILOI^IATT H0UR. In SI units 1 Ki I owatt hour, abbnev'iated kWh, ì s a powen unit equal to 3.6 x 106 ioules or 3.6 megajoules.

LQ|,rI GRADE (0R L0tll TEMPERATURE) HEAT. Heat which does not exceed a temperature of 1000C. MATRIX. A rectangular arrãy of quant'ities or other symbols convenient for nepnesenting r^elations between each pair of an aggregate. Strictiy speakiñg, such an anray can be called a matrix only if it jtself can'be tneated as a generaììzed quantity subject to certain rul es of cal cul ati on. MCF. Abbrev'iat'ion for one million cub'ic feqt of (natural) gqs. It is equivalent to approxìmately 0.028 x 106 cub'ic metres (U:) or 1090 gi gajoul es .

MEGAJOULE. In SI units, a unit of energy whjch repnesents 106 joules or' one mil I jon jouìes. It js abbrevìated MJ. M0DEL. A theor.etical system of relat'ionshìps wh'ich attempts to capture the essenti al el ements 'in a real worl d s'ituat'ion.

MTOE. Mi I l'ion tonnes of oi'l equ'ival ent. One Mtoe nepnesents approximatel Y 28.8 gìgajou'les. NEB. National Energy Board (Canada).

N0N-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP. A relationshìp between a set of varjables in which at least one of the variables is non-linear.

N0N-RENEhlABLT ENERGY. An energy resource'is non-renewable'if its rate of formation i s so sl ow as to be mean'ingl ess jn terms of human I'ife ipans. Ener"gy r.esources which ane derived from capital stock (or prìncipa] on-tapìtal). coal , petroleum and natunal gas are non-renewable, as are natural concentnations of radioactive minerals such as uranium and thonium. 0ECD. 0rganization fon Economic Cooperation and Devel opment. - 237

'in PARAMETER. Constant term in an algebraìc equation (e.g., the relationship y = ax*b, the numbens a and b are parameters).

PETAJOULE. In SI unjts a unit of enengy which repnesents 1015 joules on a quadrìllion ioules. It is abbneviated PJ. pOLyCENTRIC CITY. A city which js decentral'ized and concentrated around a number of interrelated unban centres or nodes.

PRIMARY ENERGY. The enengy commodity at the point of production, (e.g. cnude oil, naw naturãi gâS, coal, and hydroelectr'ìcity). pRIVATE TRANSP0RT. Privately owned means of conveying indjviduals or 'l groups of peop'le (e . g. pri vate automobi es ) . puBLIC TRANSPORT 0R PUBLIC TRANSIT. A pub'lìcly owned means of conveying members of the pubìic or their goods, often in ìarge cities and towns. REAL. actual or true.

RENEI,IABLE ENERGY. Energy sounces which are perpetua'l or repìenìshable; have l'if e spans comþarab'le to that of the sol ar system. Sol ar, b'iomass, geothermal, wind, and hydraul'ic - rìver, ocean tides and waves -- are exampìes. Renewables may also be defined aS energy resources deri ved f rom i ncome ('interest on capita'l )'

RESIDTNCE. The p'lace where one lìves.

RESIDENTIAL. Ad jecti ve for res'idence. In unban econom'ic sector classifìcat'ions,'it nefers to land use in whìch dwelf ings are ownen occupìed. both RESIDENTIAL/CQMMERCIAL. Land use in which dwellings ane 'is owner and renter-occupied. In this analysis the term taken to be synonYmous with r"es j dent j al .

RESOURCE. Al'l potentìal energy-producing natura'l phenomena and, accumulatiôns of naturalty occurning substances which are known on i'niàrr.O to exist (e.g., ôil, natural gôS, oil, coal, uranium hydnau'l ic sources, peãt and forest bìomass) ' RETROFIT. In resident'ial development it pertains to nestoring and r.enovati ng ol der hous'il9 to bring j! ,p to cunrent standards of technjcal-pã.iõ.run.. (é.g. insuiation and a'ir c'ircuìation). 'is I ess of SCARCITY. In economi c terms , a condi ti on whene'if there somethi ng tirãn peop'le wóul d I i ke to have i t cost nothi ng to buy. -238-

SCENARI0. Outline sìmulatìon or synopsìs of a p articular set of future conditions (e.9., futune energy conditions )

SECQNDARY ENERGY. End-use energy or the energy available for useful purposes after all of the enengy consumed in conversions, tnansmissjons on transpontation is accounted for.

STEADY-STATE SOCIETY. A soc'iety that has achieved a basic long term balance between the demands of its population and the environment that supplies its wants. In the field of energy this ìmpìies caneful husbanding of energy resources.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY. Energy sources which are virtual'ly infinite in terms of their ut'ilizatìon in the foreseeable future or which ane nep'lenì shabl e. It may 'incl ude renewabl es , nucl ear reactors, and coa1, where the supply is veny ìarge.

SYSTEM EFFICIENCY. The natio of total work done in propeìling a veh1cl e or heat'ing an env'i ronment to the energy content of the f uel as it origìna'lly exìsted in the ground. It is computgd by mult'iplyiñg the efficiency of a þart'iculai'component jn a system wjth the cumulat'ive efficiency of all prevìous steps.

SySTtMt INTERNATI0NAL. Thjs 'international system of units abbrevjated SI, uses the joule as a basjc energy unit, and the watt as a bas'ic power unj t.

THTRMAL DEPTNDENT. Dependent on energy resounces which requine combustion of fossil fuels or fiss'ion to generate useful heat for electr''icity and other punposes.

THERMODYNAMICS. The study of the motive power of heat; that is, the capabì'lìty of energy bodies to produce useful work'

THERMODYNAMiC LAWS. The laws of thermodynamics jn combjnat'ion state that the total energy content of the unjver"se is constant and the total entr^opy is coñt'inualìy increasìng. The fir"st law states that enengy can hãver be created or destroyed, jt can only be changed in form] The second law states that every tìme energy js transformed fnom one state to another there is a loss in the amount of available energy to pe¡foñn wor^k of some k'ind 'in the future.

THERMAL EFFICIENCY OF A COMBUSTION ENGINE. ThC TAtiO Of thc AMOUNT Of work produced in the pistons by expanding gas in the cyìinclers, to the potentiaì internaì enengy of combustion ìn the gasoljne used as a fuel.

THERMAL ENERGY. Useful energy in the form of heat. (See also HEAT)' -239-

THERMOELECTRIC. The combustion of any fueì wh'ich produces steam for tunbines and generates electricity (and heat).

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY. Abbnevjated TPE, it is the total energy potential available at the po'int of production. (See also PRIMARY TNERGY).

TRANSPORT. A means of conveying peopìe on goods, a conveyance. (See also pubìic transpor"t and pn'ivate transport).

URBAN M0DEL. A hypothetical c'ity or a system of unban nelationships which attempts to capture the essential elements in a real city.

UTILITY. A company on inst'itution which exists to provide specific servjces via contnactual anrangements (e.g., municipal gas supp]y and di st ri buti on ) . VARIABLE. A quantity that may have a numben of values.

WATT. SI unit of power is the watt, whjch ìs equal to 1 jouìe per second. BIBLIOGRAPHY

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