AN URBAN PLANNING METHOD FOR MODELLING ENERGY USE WITH APPLICATION TO SELICTED CANADIAN CITIES A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED iN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By AVRUM REGENSTREIF FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES THE UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA i987 Permission has been granted L'autorisation a êtê accordée to the National LibrarY of à la Bibliothèque nationale Canada to microfilm this du Canada de microfilmer thesis and to lend or sell cette thèse et de Prêter ou copies of the film. de vendre des exemPlaires du f ilm. L'auteur (titulaire du droit The author (coPYright owner) les has reserved other d'auteur) se rêserve publication rights, and autres droits de Publication; ãeittrer the tTresis nor ni Ia thèse ni de longs from it extraits de ceIle-ci ne extensive extracts imPrimês ou may be PrinLed or otherwise Aoivent être reiroauJea without his/her autrement reProduits sans son writLen permission. autorisation êcrite. rsBN 0-31-5*3?413"6 AN URBAN PI.1\NNING HETHOD FOR I()DELLING ENERGY IISE IJITE ÁPPLICÂTION TO SELECTED CANADIÂN CITIES BY AVRT'H REGENSTREIF A tllesis sr¡b¡¡rittcd to tllc l-aculty of Cracluate Studies of tl¡e Urliversity of Ma¡litoba in partial futtìllnle¡¡t of the requirer¡e¡ts of tlre degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY @ t987 Per¡nission has beer¡ grar¡ted to tlre LIBRARY oF THE uNlvER- slrY oF MANITOBA ro rend or seil copies of ttris rrresis. to the NATIONAL LIBRARY oF CANADA ro microlirnr rhis thesis a¡rd to lend or sell copies of the film, and uNIVERs¡Ty MICROFILMS to publish an absrract of this thesis. The author reserves other publicat¡o¡¡ rights, and neither the thesis nor extensive extracts from it may be printed or other- wise reproduced without the author's writtell permission. (i ) ACKNOI.ILEDGEI.IENÏS In this work a variety of people and organizations have provided encouragement and support over many years and at least some should be noted. Dn. Martjn tledepohl, formen Dean of Engineering at the U n i ve rs'i ty of Man'itoba necognized a need for this type of reseanch and had confidence in my ability to undentake it, 'initia'lly in the Facu I ty of Engìneening. Thanks are due to the Faculty of Graduate Studies for uliimately-pr.ovidi ng a home for this j ntend'iscipì i nar"y work. Sincere appreciation is due to nembers of my dissertation comm'i ttee; Dr. fãi i x Arscott (Appl i ed Mathemati cs ) , Dr. Rì chard Foster (Geography), and Dr. Jaspen McKee (Physìcs), who gave generously of ifrei i tìmä and effont to nev'iew and comment on the work. However, special thanks ane due to Professor Ralph Harnis (Economics), the cbmmittee chajrman. hlithout his patient adv'ice' encounagement and sustai ned gui dance thjs wonk woul d not have been poss'ibl e. Any shortcomings'in the work however, are strict'ly my own. Fon contribut'ions of original data base matenial , special thanks are due to Bent Gregory, Managen of Computer Senvices, Greater Wi nn'iPeg Gas Company, Winn'ipeg; Wayne Stangl, Manager of Compute r Servi ces, and staff membêrs Ron Engìot and Denn'is Moen, Saskatchewan Powe r Corporatìon, Regina; and John M'iì'ler, Computen Servjces Analyst, Northwestern Utilities Ljmitecl, Edmonton. Appreciation 'i s al so due to SeniOr management of the ¡espective agenc'ies for authon ì zi ng theì r involvement of their respectìve staff on the project' the work was provided by doctoraì Financial support for gttawa, fellowships from Canä¿a Mo¡tgage and Housing Corporation, and grants from the Centre fon Transportation Stud'ies and the Transport ðentre at the Univer.sity of Manjtoba. Assistance with final productìon costs f r"om Mn. and Mrs. Tìbon Schiff is also gnatefu'l'ly acknowìedged. word pr^ocessing was effic'ient'ly.and pat'ientìy provìded by Ms. Donna Morasse and staff of DJM & Associates, Edmonton. F.inally, above all, my apprec'iation_of_continued support by my wife Rhoda, airá chil dren Lori, barrie and Joel , must be noted' The'ir ancl quaì'ity over f at.ience añd sacri f ice of shar"ed resources , space .tìme many years can neven be measuneci. I trust that the final product will in imãl ì part, justify the'ir faith and conf idence' (ii) ABSTRACT Th'i SStudy demonstnates a method of onganizìng, processing and model ì ì ng dat a for urban resident'ial energy use and applies jt to Canadi an P lai ns c'iti es. The method of fers expf icit control of f actot"s such as ho usi ng m'ix, dwelling age and condition, nes'idential densìty, travel d'is tan ce, and climate. These factors ane obscured in methods of unban enengv analysìs, which depend on extnapolat'ion of data from national o rnegional sources, or data from pnototypica'l dwellings. The method disaggregates residential data by urban tnacts, compares areal r^esidentìal energy use in alternatlve pr"ospectives and 'investigates residential enengy consumption, travel distance from the urban centre, and areal resident'ial density. Aggregated census and pubìic utiì'ity data and systematic dqvg'lopment.of estimated data are used in a procedure whjch jnvolves: (1) establishment of an urban labonatory of three large Plains c'ities. (2) determìnation of residentjãl energy consumption from real and estimated data; (3) simulation of time-related energy objectives using scenarios 'in a three-dimensional matnix; (4) select'ion of data for comparison of resjdential tnansport energy and intennal res'idential consumption; and (b) generat'ion of three-dìmènsjonal representations of areal resjdential enengy use for each selected citY. An il lustrative app'l jcation of the method for three neal cities shows that: (1) as aneal residentìal density increases' energy consumptjon increases but less l'inean'lyi (2) areal res'idential energy use detr.eases w'ith d'istance f rom the urban centne, at least initiaì'ly' 'it may incnease laten due to concentrations of multip'le ql'it! ìn the outeisuburbs; (3) spec'ific residential areas are identifiable from their ener"gy use; (4) as reS'identìal energy effic'iency increases' clìfferencei in residentjal energy use between olden and newer areas cl.iminish; and (5) areal res'idential transport energy use decreases with nesidential distance from the unban centre. The method offers an analytica'l and monitoring technique fon urban planning which can be perióaically reìterated using systematic time-series data to present i:hree-dimeniional change 'in urban energy use. It can aì so provi de a f .irst appr"oximati on of expected enengy use characteri sti cs for other selecteä'cities and can 'identify where energy waste may be occurring. (i i i ) TABLE OF CONTEIÍTS ! ô (i ) ." o c o o " ' " ' ACKI{01{LEDGEI'IENTS " "" " " "" " " " " .."""'e"" (i i) ABSTRACT ...'..o"' """'"' CHAPTER 1 I IF{TR0DUCTI0N """"".."""""'c".."""""""'c 2 1.1 BACKGR0UND'"'"..""".."""""c"..""""" 11 1.2 THE REGI0NAL ENVIRoNMENT .."e'ô"""..oc""""" 18 INVESTIGATION 1.3 THE URBAN CONTEXT FOR ENTRGY 31 1.4 THE PR0BLEM 'o""o".."c' """""o"""o" 35 1.5 KEY QUESTIONS """..""""'..' 'o'"'o""" """"' 3B II LITERATURE REVIET'I """"..""' ?JANOVERVIEt,J0FTHE-LITERATURE0N-ENERGYc0NSERVATI0N1e60 38 AND R;iAiËö ÚnanN P0LICY sINcE """""".." 51 PERSPECTIVES 2.2 URBAN MODELS AND ENERGY z.3LITERATURE0FPARTICULARRELEVANCET0THERESEARCH 57 DESiGN 'o""".. ".."""""' ""' 96 ?..4 SUMMARY ......"""..' ""' """'"""' 99 ORGANIZATION OF DATA III RESEARCH DESIGN AND 99 OF THE RTSEARCH METHOD " " " " ' 3.1 GENERAL DESCR I PTION REAL ENERGY ENVIRONMENTS IN 3.2 DEFINIT TON OF RESIDENTIAL 100 aa"""" C ITIES """"'rt"""' RESiDENTIAL/COMMTRCIAL 3.3 DETERMINATION OF INTERNAL HõUSÈHOI-OS AND URBAN TRACTS ENERGY CONSUMPTIOÑ..Ëõii i03 u;;Ñc nrnr- AND ESTIMATED DATA ""'"''' '..'''' CONSUMPTION FOR 3.4 DETERMINATION OF ENTRGY CóñÈ TON SELECTED RESIDENTIAL JOURNEY.TO.WORK Tõ..îHË i11 iRÃôis' IN-THE sELEcTED ciTiES RESIDE$lrIAL ENTRGY 3.5 TDENTiFICATI0N 0F A BASE !Ey.tl-^9F 116 ôìïònÈrrõÑ or unsnN HousEHoLDs Äi'iHÊ' tfl 3.6 SUI''ll4ARY (i v) IV RESEARCH I-IETHOD 119 4.1 THE URBAN LABORATORY - ITS DEVICES, THTIR PURPOSE AND APPLICATION . .... ... ... .. ....... ... o o. .. ... ¡ .. 119 4.2 THE USE OF HYPOTHETICAL CITIES TO ESTABLISH LIMITS FOR COMPARING URBAN TNERGY CHARACTERISTICS ... T2T 4.3 THE USE OF SCENARIOS TO COMPARE URBAN ENERGY CHARACTERISTICS ON A TIME SCALE ... ........... C ' 125 4.4 THE USI OF A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX TO COMPARE ENERGY CONDITIONS IN REAL CITIES I,IITH HYPOTHTTICAL CITIES . .. .... ... ... .. o ... .. .. o . .. .... .. .... ô. .. 133 r37 v APPLICATI0il 0F THE METHoD .... o....... e.... .. e. .. ... G 139 SELECTED RESIDINTIAL ENERGY RELATED 5 "1 CONSIDERATION OF PARAMETERS IN REAL CITIIS ..... .. C " " .. ' 139 5.2 CONSIDERATION OF URBAN PARAMETERS IN REAL CITIES USING LIMITS FOR HYPOTHITICAL CITIES 153 5.3 THE USE OF SCENARIOS TO INVESTiGATE LONG TERM CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL ENTRGY PARAMETERS ......I""""..... 164 5.4 THE USE OF THREE DIMENSIONS TO INVTSTIGATE CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN REAL AND HYPOTHTTICAL CITIES ...... .. ..... ..... 187 191 vI suMl.lARY, CoÎ{CLUSI0NS AllD P0LICY il'IPLICATIONS 198 6.1 OVERVIEW OF THE THTSIS ..........O" ".O' 198 6.2 AREAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH . ... 202 6.3 CONC1USI0NS............ ......... 204 6.4 POLICY IMPLICATIONS .. ... .. .. .. 2r8 ( v) (v'ii ) 225 233 240 (v ) LIST OF TABLES Tabl e Numbe n T'itl e Page 1 A COMPARISON OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR SELECTED OtcD C0UNTRIES . ... ..... 5 2 SECONDARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN CANADA . 1981 8 3 CLiMATE FOR 23 LARGE CANADIAN CITIES 27 4 ESTIMATIS OF ENERGY DIMAND FROM RENIWABLES BY THE YEAR 2025 . .... O ' B5 5 DENSITY AND ENIRGY CONSUMPTION CHARACTERISTICS FOR THRET SELECTED CANADIANPLAINSCITIES 8""" 110 6 SELECTED CENSUS TRACTS IN THREE CANADIAN PLAINS CITIES: ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR JOURNEY-TO-WORK TO THE CORE BY PUBLIC TRANSIT AND PRIVATE AUTO}4OBILE - SCENARIO I DATA FORMAT ....