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International Security Forum Bonn 2020 Report INTERNATIONAL SECURITY FORUM BONN 2020 A TIME OUT OF JOINT – NEW REALITIES, NEW IDEAS 1-5 DECEMBER 2020 FULL REPORT RAPPORTEURS: CORNELIUS LILIE LUKAS PAUL SCHMELTER International Security Forum Bonn 2020 3 FOREWORD The International Security Forum Bonn 2020 facilitated Like no other event in the 21st century, the SARS- a high-level international dialogue on contemporary CoV-2-pandemic has put the international order, as topics of foreign and security policy. The goal of the well as the societies, economies, and policies of Forum was to foster exchange between experts and almost every country on earth to the test. It remains practitioners, to identify vital aspects of a successful to be seen whether those in positions of influence will European foreign and security policy, and to develop succeed in containing the pandemic and in respond- holistic strategic solutions for pressing problems. The ing successfully to its consequences. 2020 Forum focused on the challenges posed by the shifts in transatlantic relations, discussed the findings As hardly ever before, political, and economic decision- of the Task Force "The Future of Transatlantic Rela- makers depend on science – first on virologists, but tions", and evaluated the upcoming global geo-eco- also on other natural and social science expertise. nomic and geo-political rivalries which were reinforced Expertise and novel insights are key, particularly since by the SARS-CoV-2-pandemic. It was concluded by a any political or inaction is likely to have serious social, two-day workshop on strategic foresight. economic, and political consequences. From left to right: Prof. Dr. Wolfram Hilz, Prof. Dr. Volker Kronenberg, Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie, Dr. Enrico Fels 4 International Security Forum Bonn 2020 Last December’s International Security Forum Bonn Only the historical retrospective will show whether 2020 served as an opportunity to identify new topics the year 2020 marks a break. However, historians and and redeem existing instruments of political and eco- other scholars can already help to place things into a nomic governance in order to open a new chapter in wider temporal frame, and in doing so contribute to the transatlantic relations. Joe Biden’s election as 46th mastering the future. President of the United States offers Europe and the United States the perspective to redefine a precious Little is inevitable, and the future lies in our hands – partnership and to find common answers to shared with this mindset, contributors from Bonn and from problems. around world defied the Covid19-driven impossibility to meet in person., instead meeting in the virtual Although common sense would suggest that an exis- world. tential threat can only be countered cooperatively, in many places the political reactions, especially of the CASSIS remains committed to fostering new approaches two great powers USA and China, reinforced the to international security, normative initiatives, and existing geo-economic rivalry, which puts Germany no-smokescreen debates. New realities require new and Europe in particular in a quandary and requires ideas. strategic thinking. Bonn, 2 March 2021 Prof. Dr. Wolfram Hilz Prof. Dr. Volker Kronenberg Professor for Political Science, and Director of CASSIS, Dean of the Faculty of Arts, and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn University of Bonn Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie Dr. Enrico Fels Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategic Managing Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn Studies, and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn 6 International Security Forum Bonn 2020 CONTENTS List of Participants . 8 Executive Summary. 12 Forum Program . 14 Introduction and Presentation of Task Force Report. 22 COMMENTS AND PERSPECTIVES Main Day: "The Future of Transatlantic Relations – New Realities, New Ideas" • Niall Ferguson Keynote Speech . 25 • Welcoming Remarks by Peter Beyer MdB A Window of Opportunity: Let's Build the New West . 29 • Stefan Kornelius Biden’s World . 32 • Alexander Graf Lambsdorff MdB: Transatlantic Relations . 34 • Heiko Borchert A Transatlantic Geo-Economic Compact. 36 • Ulrich Schlie Transatlantic Relations: Where Do We Go From Here?. 40 • Thomas Weber Religious Values, Democracy, and the Future of Transatlantic Bonds . 43 • Detlef Wächter The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship . 46 • Iulian Romanyshyn European Strategic Autonomy and the Revived Transatlantic Partnership . 48 Special Focus Day: "What to Learn from the Pandemic: Security in the Light of COVID-19", hosted by Konrad Adenauer Foundation • Welcoming Remarks by Federal Minister Jens Spahn MdB. 53 • Ilona Kickbusch What to Learn from the Pandemic: Security in the Light of COVID-19 . 54 • Michael Rabbow Prelude: Health and Security – A Neglected Relationship. 59 International Security Forum Bonn 2020 7 • Annamarie Bindenagel Šehović Global Health Security: Safety and Security . 63 • Christian Haggenmiller When Health Issues Challenge Security . 66 • Katharina C. Cramer Cyberattacks on COVID-19 Research Infrastructures in Europe: A Brief Overview . 70 • Simon Dalby Adapting Security for Changing Times . 74 • Hans-Martin von Gaudecker The COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany: Policy Reaction, Economic, and Social Consequences . 78 • Elvira Rosert Democratic Societies, Norms, and Decision-Making in the Pandemic . 81 • Marina Rudyak, Maximilian Mayer, Marius Meinhof Keeping the Distance: Why Europeans Find it so Difficult to Learn from East Asia. 85 Foresight Workshop "Transatlantic Security 2025" • Philip A. Ackermann, Victoria Toriser Strategic Foresight and Scenario Technique . 89 • James D. Bindenagel Foresight Workshop in Transatlantic Security Policy 2025 . 106 • Christiane Heidbrink Fundamentals of Strategic Foresight: Sisyphus was a Happy Man . 110 • Sarah Bressan Strategic Foresight: Will Germany Dare to Shape the Post-Pandemic Future? . 114 • Olaf Theiler Managing the Unknown Unknowns – Strategic Foresight as Policy Advice . 118 • Frank Umbach Strategic Forecasts – Challenges, Complexities, and Personal Experiences . 121 • Joachim Weber Stuck on the Road to Realpolitik What the Germans Could Do Easily and Should Do Now . 127 In Memory of Guido Goldman (1937–2020) . 130 Partners . 131 Imprint . 132 8 International Security Forum Bonn 2020 List of Participants Philip A. Ackermann Elbridge Colby Regional Coordinator, Young German Council on Foreign Relations Principal, The Marathon Initiative, Washington D.C. NRW/Bonn Dr. Katharina Cramer Niklas Almasi Research Fellow, Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Research Assistant, Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS), University of Bonn Integration Studies (CASSIS), University of Bonn Prof. Dr. Simon Dalby Janick Bayer Professor, Geography and Environmental Studies, Balsillie School Young German Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin of International Affairs & Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo Dr. Benjamin Becker Dr. Sławomir Dębski Director of the AmerikaHaus NRW, Cologne Polish Institute of International Affairs, Warsaw David Bertolotti Jeroen Dobber Former Director of Strategic Affairs at the French Foreign Ministry, European Affairs Manager and Head of Security Hub, Paris Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, Brussels Peter Beyer MdB Dr. Domenica Dreyer-Plum Member of the German Bundestag, Coordinator of Transatlantic Research Fellow, Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Cooperation, Federal Foreign Office, Berlin Integration Studies (CASSIS), University of Bonn Steven Bickel Melissa Eddy International Security Affairs, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Berlin Berlin Correspondent, The New York Times, Berlin Prof. James Bindenagel Prof. Dr. Stefan Elbe Ambassador (ret.) Senior Professor, Center for Advanced Security, Professor, Director Centre for Global Health Policy, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS), University of Bonn University of Sussex Dr. Annamarie Bindenagel-Šehović Florian Engels Research Fellow, University of Warwick/University Research Fellow, Center for Advanced Security, of Potsdam Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS), University of Bonn Thomas Birringer Prof. Dr. Martin Exner Deputy Head of Analysis and Consulting Department, Professor, Institute for Hygiene and Public Health, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Berlin University Hospital Bonn Norman Blevins Dr. Enrico Fels Research Fellow, Institute for European and Transatlantic Managing Director, Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Dialogue, Hanns Seidel Foundation, Munich Integration Studies (CASSIS), University of Bonn Dr. Antoine Bondaz Prof. Dr. Niall Ferguson Research Fellow, Foundation for Strategic Research, Paris Professor, Family Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University Dr. Heiko Borchert Borchert Consulting & Research AG, Luzern Tilman Fietz-Bockard Research Fellow, Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Svenja Bounin Integration Studies (CASSIS), University of Bonn Young German Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin Dr. Ulrike Franke Dr. Franziska Brantner MdB Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Affairs, London Member of the German Bundestag, Spokesperson on European Affairs and Parliamentary Secretary of Alliance 90/ Prof. Dr. Markus Gabriel The Greens’ Parliamentary Group, Berlin Professor, Institute for Philosophy, University of Bonn Daniela Braun Sigmar Gabriel Foreign and Security Affairs, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Berlin Former Vice Chancellor and former Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, Chairman, Atlantik-Brücke, Berlin Sarah Bressan Research Fellow,
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