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Chapter 3 the Transition Economies

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Chapter 3 the Transition Economies ________________________________________________________________________________________________41 CHAPTER 3 THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES 3.1 Introduction conflict; in contrast, the average rate of growth in the central European transition economies (3.1 per cent) (i) Expectations and outcomes remained almost unchanged from that in 1998 (3.2 per cent). Aggregate GDP in the ECE transition economies increased by some 2¼ per cent in 1999, the highest The growth of GDP in the Russian Federation in average annual rate of growth for the transition 1999 (3.2 per cent) was not only the highest achieved economies as a group during the first decade of their during the past decade but was also much higher than all economic and political transformation. However, the the forecasts, including the official ones (table 3.1.1). average figure for 1999 masks an unusual degree of As discussed below, in sections 3.2 and 3.3, it would be volatility during the year as well as considerable premature to draw general conclusions about Russia’s differences between the individual economies. growth prospects on the basis of one year’s outcome, Performance was very weak in the first half of the year, which reflects to a large extent a cyclical upturn after and especially the first quarter when more than half of the output collapse of 1998. At the same time the the transition economies plunged into recession; in performance in 1999 marks a notable departure from contrast, there was a marked recovery of output in most Russia’s past record in several important respects: apart of these countries in the second part of the year. from the notable recovery of output (especially in industry), total employment also increased for the first The uneven pace of output growth in the transition time in a decade and there were also signs of the steep economies was predominantly driven by external decline of investment demand coming to an end. factors: the widespread recessionary pressures during the first half of the year – which followed the sharp The transition economies are still undergoing – to weakening of output during the second half of 1998 – varying degrees – deep structural changes accompanied were largely the aftershocks of the global financial by large-scale reallocation of resources. The new turmoil and the Russian crisis, coupled with the corporate sector, now dominated by private actors economic fallout from the Kosovo conflict; conversely, (combining new private firms and privatized, former the upturn in west European import demand in the state owned enterprises), is already the main engine of second half of 1999 was an important factor behind the growth in many transition economies, especially those recovery in eastern Europe as well while commodity which are the more advanced with reforms. Largely exporters, especially in the CIS, benefited from operating in accordance with the principles and norms generally rising demand and better prices for some of the market economy, and capable of facing commodities. The vulnerability of most of the competitive pressures, the new corporate sector serves transition economies to external disturbances is yet at the same time as a shield that increases the overall another sign both of their high dependence on their resilience of the economy to external disturbances, external markets and of the absence of efficient policy provided it is supported by efficient policy mechanisms. mechanisms to counterbalance negative developments But in many transition economies, the prolonged from abroad. existence of an unrestructured sector of inefficient, large state owned firms continues to be a major handicap for The recent volatility of output as well as the the transition economies, which increases their generally high, although varying degree of susceptibility vulnerability to external shocks. Moreover, the slow to external shocks led to large discrepancies between ex- process of closing down (or downsizing) unviable firms ante expectations and actual outcomes in many is itself a persistent (albeit diminishing) source of transition economies in 1999 (table 3.1.1). These transformational recession in those economies that are differences were greatest in the three Baltic economies lagging behind in the reform process. In turbulent where the actual GDP growth rates were several periods (such as that between mid-1998 and mid-1999) percentage points lower than the official forecasts. it may be difficult to differentiate between the cyclical GDP growth was generally less than expected in most and transformational components of recession; however, of eastern Europe but the dismal figure for the increase it seems plausible that the unrestructured part of the in their aggregate GDP (1.4 per cent) largely reflects the enterprise sector – among other factors – has amplified poor performance in south-eastern Europe which was the negative repercussions of external shocks in some of weakened by the economic consequences of the Kosovo the less advanced transition economies. 42 _______________________________________________________________ Economic Survey of Europe, 2000 No. 1 TABLE 3.1.1 Basic economic indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1997-2000 (Rates of change and shares, per cent) GDP (growth rates) Industrial output Inflation (per cent Unemployment rate 1999 (growth rates) change, Dec./Dec.) (end of period, per cent) 2000 2000 Ex-ante official official 1997 1998 forecast Actual forecast 1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999 forecast a 1997 1998 1999 Eastern Europe ................... 2.1 1.8 2.9 1.4 4 4.9 0.8 -0.2 .. .. .. .. 11.9 12.6 14.6* Albania ............................... -7.0 8 8 8 8 2.8 21.8 16.0 42.0 7.8 -1.0 3 14.9 17.6 .. Bosnia and Herzegovina b . .. .. .. .. 12 35.7 23.8 10.6 12.2 2.2 -0.4 .. 39* 38.5 39.1 Bulgaria .............................. -7.0 3.5 3.7 2.6 4 -10.0 -12.7 -12.5 578.7 0.9 6.2 2.8 13.7 12.2 16.0 Croatia ............................... 6.8 2.5 1.5-2 -0.3 2.6 6.8 3.7 -1.4 4.0 5.6 4.6 2-3 17.6 18.6 20.8 Czech Republic .................. -1.0 -2.2 -0.8 -0.2 1.5 4.5 1.6 -3.1 9.9 6.7 2.5 3.3-4.4 5.2 7.5 9.4 Hungary ............................. 4.6 4.9 5 4.5 5 11.1 12.5 10.5 18.4 10.4 11.3 6-7 10.4 9.1 9.6 Poland ................................ 6.9 4.8 4.5 4.1 5.2 11.5 3.5 4.4 13.2 8.5 9.9 5.7 10.3 10.4 13.0 Romania ............................. -6.1 -5.4 -2 -3.2 1.3 -7.2 -16.8 -8.0 151.7 40.7 54.9 25-30 8.8 10.3 11.5 Slovakia ............................. 6.5 4.4 3 1.9 2 2.7 3.8 -3.4 6.5 5.5 14.4 14.1 12.5 15.6 19.2 Slovenia ............................. 4.6 3.9 4 4.9 3¾ 1.0 3.7 -0.5 8.8 6.6 8.1 4-5 14.8 14.6 13.0 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia .... 1.4 2.9 6 2.7 6 1.6 4.5 -2.6 4.5 -1.0 2.4 .. 41.7 41.4 47* Yugoslavia c ....................... 7.4 2.5 7 -19.3 14 9.5 3.6 -23.1 10.3 45.7 54.0 – 25.6 27.2 27.4 Baltic states ......................... 8.4 4.5 4.5 -1.7 3 8.2 5.6 -8.2 .. .. .. .. 6.3 7.3 9.1 Estonia ............................... 10.6 4.0 4 -1.4 3.8-4.0 14.6 2.3 -3.9 12.3 6.8 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.1 6.7 Latvia ................................. 8.6 3.9 4 0.1 3.5 13.8 3.1 -8.8 7.0 2.8 3.3 3.0 6.7 9.2 9.1 Lithuania ............................ 7.3 5.1 5 -3.0 2 3.3 8.2 -9.9 8.5 2.4 0.3 4.1 6.7 6.9 10.0 CIS ........................................ 1.1 -3.0 -1.1 2.9 2¼ 2.5 -3.0 7.2 .. .. .. .. 7.6 9.0 8.4 Armenia .............................. 3.3 7.2 4 3.0 5.6 8.2 -2.7 5.2 21.8 -1.2 2.1 10 11.0 8.9 11.5 Azerbaijan .......................... 5.8 10.0 9 7.4 8 0.3 2.2 3.6 0.3 -7.6 -0.5 .. 1.3 1.4 1.2 Belarus ............................... 11.4 8.4 4-6 3.4 2-3 18.8 12.4 9.9 63.4 181.6 251.3 60 2.8 2.3 2.0 Georgia .............................. 11.3 2.9 8 3.0 4.2-4.8 8.2 -2.7 4.8 7.3 10.8 11.1 .. 8.0 4.2 5.6 Kazakhstan ........................ 1.7 -1.9 1.5 1.7 3 4.1 -2.4 2.2 11.3 1.9 18.1 7.1 3.9 3.7 3.9 Kyrgyzstan ......................... 9.9 2.1 2.8 3.6 4-5 39.7 5.3 -1.7 14.7 18.3 39.8 20 3.1 3.1 3.0 Republic of Moldova d ........ 1.6 -8.6 -3 -4.4 2 – -15.0 -9.0 11.1 18.2 43.8 15 1.7 1.9 2.1 Russian Federation ............ 0.9 -4.9 -2.5 3.2 1.5-2.5 2.0 -5.2 8.1 11.0 84.5 36.7 18e 11.2 13.3 12.3 Tajikistan ...........................
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