Eastern Enlargement: the Sooner, the Better?
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Munich Personal RePEc Archive Eastern enlargement: the sooner, the better? Arndt, Sven and Handler, Heinz and Salvatore, Dominick Austrian Ministry for Economic Affairs and Labour July 2000 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44943/ MPRA Paper No. 44943, posted 11 Mar 2013 09:29 UTC AUSTRIAN MINISTRY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND LABOUR ECONOMIC POLICY SECTION EUROPEAN ACADEMY OF EXCELLENCE Eastern Enlargement: The Sooner, the Better? EDITED BY SVEN ARNDT, HEINZ HANDLER AND DOMINICK SALVATORE Vienna, July 2000 ISBN 3-901676-26-0 Owned and published by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Labour, Economic Policy Section A-1010 Vienna, Stubenring 1, Phone: ++43-1-71100-0 Project supervisor: Heinz Handler Editorial work: Christina Burger Cover: Claudia Goll Layout: Waltraud Schuster Printed by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Labour Reprint only in extracts and with explicit reference. Contents I CONTENTS Preface 1 European Academy of Excellence 2000 Eastern Enlargement: The Sooner the Better? 4 1. Background and aim 4 2. Issues for discussion 5 2.1. Session 1a: Narrowing the structural gap 5 2.2. Session 1b: In search of the optimal exchange rate regime 7 2.3. Session 2: The effects of fragmentation on employment 8 What will Eastern Enlargement do to Accession Countries? Christina Burger, Heinz Handler 10 1. Introduction 10 2. Income differences and their role for the adjustment process 10 3. Macroeconomic and exchange-rate stability as the basis for gaining competitiveness 13 4. Implementing the acquis communautaire 18 5. How to gain competitiveness in accession countries? 20 6. Eastern Enlargement: The sooner the better? 23 7. References 26 II Contents Narrowing the Structural Gap Narrowing the Structural Gap in Transition Economies Dominick Salvatore 30 1. Introduction 30 2. Economic conditions in transition economies 31 3. Transition process and progress 37 3.1. A model of transition 37 3.2. Transition progress 40 4. Relative structure and international competitiveness of transition economies 41 5. International trade theory, trade restructuring and the revealed comparative advantage of transaction economies 44 5.1. A model of trade restructuring during transition 44 6. Exchange rate arrangements 51 7. Conclusions 53 8. References 55 Narrowing the Structural Gap: Structural Change in the Transition Economies, 1989 to 1999 Michael Landesmann 58 Introduction 58 1. Broad patterns of structural change: Deindustrialization – tertiarization – de-(and re-)agrarization 60 2. Employment, participation rates and unemployment 63 3. Patterns of industrial restructuring 66 4. Convergence in structures? 74 5. Trade specialization 78 5.1. Patterns of trade specialization with the EU: inter- industry specialization 78 Contents III 5.2. Patterns of trade specialization with the EU: vertical product differentiation and product quality catching-up 82 6. Some conjectures on the dynamics of comparative advantage 84 6.1. Productivity and wage catching-up 86 6.2. Product quality catching-up by CEE producers in EU markets 89 7. FDI involvement by branch 93 8. Structural change in central and eastern Europe, EU accession and the further course of east-west European integration: concluding remarks 97 9. References 101 Which Reforms will be Necessary Following Eastern Enlargement? Alfred Steinherr 104 1. Introduction 104 2. The particular features of Eastern Enlargement 104 3. Integration goals and tasks 106 4. Allocation of tasks 112 5. Decision-making and organisational structure 113 6. The ideal extension of the EU 114 7. Conclusion 115 8. References 117 The Role of Time in EU Enlargement Fritz Breuss 118 1. Introduction 118 2. A simple model of EU enlargement 119 3. Who gains and who loses from a rapid enlargement? 123 IV Contents 4. Conclusions 129 5. References 129 6. Appendix: A simple model of EU enlargement 130 Trade Protection in Five EU Member Candidate Countries by Exchange Rate Adjustment, Customs Tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures Gerhard Fink 133 1. Introduction 133 2. Exchange rate policy 135 3. Customs tariffs 138 4. Non tariff barriers in the five EU member candidate countries 139 5. Technical barriers to trade 140 6. Labeling requirements 143 7. Breakdown by industry and country 146 8. Summary and conclusions 146 9. References 148 The EIB's possibilities to participate in infrastructural investments Ewald Nowotny 150 1. What is the EIB? 150 2. EIB and infrastructure investment 151 3. EIB and the northern dimension 152 Contents V Exchange Rate Regime in Central and Eastern Europe Exchange Rate Arrangements in Central and Eastern Europe Robert A. Mundell 158 What Monetary Regime for Accession Countries? Jürgen von Hagen 166 Exchange Rate Arrangements in Central and Eastern Europe – Comments Laszlo Halpern 169 The Costs and Benefits of Euro-Isolation in Central-Eastern Europe before or instead of EMU Membership D. Mario Nuti 171 1. Introduction 171 2. Euroisation to date 173 3. Advantages of euroisation 175 4. Possible disadvantages: differences from EMU membership 177 5. Possible disadvantages: unsuitability of any peg to the euro 180 6. Costs and benefits for ECB and the EMU members 182 7. Convergence? 188 8. Improved trade access versus monetary integration 190 9. Conclusions 191 10. References 192 VI Contents Exchange rate systems and financial stability: Some general considerations Wolfgang Filc 195 1. The role of financial markets in ensuring stable macroeconomic development 195 2. Requirements for financial market stability 197 2.1. Microeconomic requirements 197 2.2. Macroeconomic requirements 198 3. The contribution of the international monetary system to a stable international financial architecture 201 3.1. The role of exchange rates for aggregate economic stability 201 3.2. The system of "managed exchange rate flexibility" 202 4. References 209 The Experience with Exchange Rate Adjustments during Transformation: The Case of the Czech Republic Marie Vavrejnova 211 Fragmentation of the Value Added Chain Eastern Enlargement and the Evolving Global Economy Sven W. Arndt 216 1. Introduction 216 2. Recent developments 217 3. The gains from component specialisation and production sharing 220 4. Concluding remarks 225 5. References 226 Contents VII International Fragmentation: A Policy Perspective Wilhelm Kohler 227 1. Introduction 227 2. Is there a clear and useful meaning of "globalization"? 228 3. Fragmentation: A new form of globalization 230 4. Outsourcing: A trade off between cost savings and loss of employment? 232 5. Gain and pain: Overall welfare and redistribution 237 6. Fragmentation barriers: The role of preferential trading agreements 241 7. Conclusions 245 8. References 247 Outsourcing of Austrian Manufacturing to Eastern Countries: Effects on Productivity and the Labor Market Rene Dell'mour, Peter Egger, Klaus Gugler, Michael Pfaffermayr, Yvonne Wolfmayr-Schnitzer 249 1. Introduction 249 2. The main stylized facts for Austrian manufacturing 251 2.1. Magnitude of international outsourcing 252 2.2. Magnitude and development of intrafirm trade 261 2.3. Evidence on employment of direct investing firms at the firm level 265 2.4. Outsourcing and total factor productivity growth 271 2.5. Outsourcing and the labor market 272 3. Econometric estimates of the impact of outsourcing for Austrian manufacturing 277 3.1. Productivity effects 277 3.2. Outsourcing and the effects on skill-specific employment 280 3.3. Induced mandated wage changes 285 4. Conclusions and policy implications 291 5. References 293 VIII Contents 6. Appendix 296 6.1. Measuring international outsourcing by imports of intermediates 296 6.2. Estimating the impact of fragmentation on total factor productivity 297 6.3. Measuring the effects of outsourcing on wage inequality − mandated factor price changes. 299 6.4. Variables and data sources 301 Foreign Direct Investment of Austrian Firms in the CEECs Christina Burger 303 Conference Participants 309 Index 313 Publications 323 Preface 1 PREFACE The first European Academy of Excellence has been organised during the Austrian Presidency of the EU in 1998. The idea was to have a high level forum on European policy issues – gathering a selected number of outstanding politicians, businessmen, university professors and other renowned experts to discuss relevant topics which seemed important in European policy making. The first Academy of November 1998, devoted to the "Future Competitiveness of Europe", turned out a quite successful event which helped shape the discussion of various Council meetings of the EU. Since then Eastern Enlargement has turned out to be the most important single issue that economists in the EU have become engaged with. Future competitiveness of Europe will be strongly dependent on an early perception of the adjustment needs due to Eastern Enlargement – in the countries of transition as well as in the European Union. In order to put more emphasis on this topic, it was a pleasure for me to be the host of the second European Academy of Excellence devoted to "Eastern Enlargement: The Sooner, the Better?". It was held in Vienna on 16-17 June 2000. After completion of the internal market and the introduction of the Euro, Eastern Enlargement has become the most important challenge for the European Union. At the outset of the next millennium, the process of deepening and widening integration put substantial adjustment pressure on the economies involved. Since the opening up of the East, the EU, and especially Austria, have gained a lot from this process. The prospects for further development of the economies involved are even more positive. Started in Luxembourg in December 1997, the enlargement process aims at the stability and prosperity for the entire European continent. In March 1998 the EU entered negotiations with five Central and Eastern European Countries, the Helsinki Summit in December 1999 opened the door to another five Eastern applicants. Adjustments are needed on both sides: The enlargement process, on the one hand, enhances European institutional reform. On the other hand, the envisaged integration into the Single Market, and eventually into EMU, mark important milestones in the reform efforts of the transition countries.