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FY2020 State Fiscal Conference • • • TRUTH AND INTEGRITY IN STATE BUDGETING: LOOMING RISKS, DURABLE SOLUTIONS

July 10, 2019 5:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.

July 11, 2019 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.

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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 1000 Peachtree St. NE Atlanta, GA 30309

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AGENDA

WEDNESDAY, JULY 10, 2019 SHEILA AMOROSO Senior Vice President and Director 5:30 p.m.–6:30 p.m. Municipal Bond Department Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group WELCOME COCKTAIL RECEPTION ANDREW HAUGHWOUT AT THE ATLANTA MONETARY MUSEUM Senior Vice President and Policy Leader for Household/Regional Microeconomic Studies Function 6:30 p.m.–8:30 p.m. Federal Reserve Bank of New York DINNER AND KEYNOTE JULIETTE TENNERT INTRODUCTION Director of Economic and Public Policy Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute THOMAS W. ROSS University of Utah President The Volcker Alliance 9:45 a.m.–10:45 a.m.

KEYNOTE PANEL SESSION NO. 2 SHIRLEY CLARKE FRANKLIN Infrastructure: Quantifying Risks to former Mayor of Atlanta Reap the Rewards IN CONVERSATION WITH MODERATOR JAMES SALZER DENNIS LOCKHART Assistant Senior Editor, State Government and Politics Distinguished Professor-of-the-Practice Atlanta Journal–Constitution Georgia Institute of Technology Sam Nunn School of International Affairs; Former President and Chief Executive Officer THURSDAY, JULY 11, 2019 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8:00 a.m.–8:30 a.m. PANELISTS

REGISTRATION AND CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST THOMAS G. DOE Founder and President Municipal Market Analytics Inc. 8:30 a.m.–8:45 a.m. TRACY GORDON WELCOME AND OPENING REMARKS Senior Fellow DAVID E. ALTIG Urban–Brookings Tax Policy Center Executive Vice President and Director of Research GEORGE “MAC” MCCARTHY Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President and Chief Executive WILLIAM GLASGALL Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Senior Vice President and Director of CAMILA FONSECA–SARMIENTO State and Local Initiatives Research Associate The Volcker Alliance Institute for Urban and Regional Infrastructure Finance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs 8:45 a.m.–9:45 a.m. University of Minnesota

PANEL SESSION NO. 1 10:45 a.m.–11:00 a.m. Better Budget Forecasting: Identifying and Lessening Revenue Risks BREAK MODERATOR 11:00 a.m.–12:00 p.m.

JEFFREY HOLLAND PANEL SESSION NO. 3 Vice President of Research Peter G. Peterson Foundation Workforce Development: Challenges, Solutions, and Budget PANELISTS Consequences

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AGENDA

MODERATOR SENATOR JACK HILL Chairman, Senate Appropriations Committee THOMAS W. ROSS Georgia State Senate President The Volcker Alliance GABRIEL PETEK Legislative Analyst, Legislative Analyst’s Office PANELISTS state of California DAVID E. ALTIG 2:20 p.m.–2:30 p.m. Executive Vice President and Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta BREAK KAYE HUSBANDS FEALING 2:30 p.m.–3:55 p.m. Chair and Professor, School of Public Policy Georgia Institute of Technology PANEL SESSION NO. 4, PART 2 MARTI FISCHBACH Workshop: Rainy Day Funds and Reserves Director of Economic and Employment Assistance Dakota County, Minnesota MODERATOR KIL HUH 12:00 p.m.–1:15 p.m. Vice President of Government Performance The Pew Charitable Trusts LUNCH AND KEYNOTE ADDRESS INTRODUCTION FACILITATORS CHRIS CUNNINGHAM KATHERINE BARRETT Research Economist and Associate Adviser Special Projects Consultant Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta The Volcker Alliance KEYNOTE THAD CALABRESE Associate Professor of Public and Nonprofit Financial RAPHAEL W. BOSTIC Management and Director of Finance Specialization, President and Chief Executive Officer Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta New York University

1:15 p.m.–1:30 p.m. RICHARD GREENE Special Projects Consultant BREAK The Volcker Alliance MARY MURPHY 1:30 p.m.–2:20 p.m. Project Director Fiscal and Economic Policy, State Fiscal Health PANEL SESSION NO. 4, PART 1 The Pew Charitable Trusts Rainy Day Funds and Reserves: LISA WASHBURN Ameliorating Revenue Risks Managing Director Municipal Market Analytics Inc. MODERATOR

MARY MURPHY 3:55 p.m.–4:00 p.m. Project Director Fiscal and Economic Policy, State Fiscal Health CLOSING REMARKS The Pew Charitable Trusts WILLIAM GLASGALL PANELISTS Senior Vice President and Director of State and Local Initiatives KATHERINE BARRETT The Volcker Alliance Special Projects Consultant The Volcker Alliance 4:00 p.m.–4:30 p.m. RICHARD GREENE Special Projects Consultant NETWORKING The Volcker Alliance

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS RAPHAEL W. BOSTIC SHIRLEY CLARKE FRANKLIN Keynote speaker Keynote speaker Raphael Bostic became the fifteenth Shirley Franklin is executive board chair of president and chief executive officer of the Purpose Built Communities and the former Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in 2017. In Barbara Jordan Visiting Professor of Ethics addition, he serves on the Federal Reserve’s and Political Values at the LBJ School of chief mon­etary policy body, the Federal Public Affairs at the University of Texas in Open Market Committee. Austin. In 2002, Franklin was elected mayor From 2012 to 2017, Bostic was the Judith of Atlanta,­ becoming the first African and John Bed­rosian Chair in Governance American female mayor of a major South- and the Public Enterprise at the Sol Price ern city, and served two terms. School of Public Policy at the University of South­ern Atlanta experienced unprecedented growth over California. From 2009 to 2012, Bostic served as assistant Franklin’s eight years as mayor. That growth afforded her secretary for policy development and research at the US the opportunity to partner and collaborate with many Department of Housing and Urban Development. From local and regional leaders in addressing policy challenges. 1995 to 2001, Bostic served at the Federal Reserve Board of Franklin is best known for tackling major government Governors as an economist and then a senior economist in operations and ethics reform. the monetary and financial studies sec­tion. Franklin serves on the board of directors of Mueller Bostic graduated from Harvard University in 1987 with Water Products. Her civic engagement includes her work a combined major in economics and psychology. He earned as chairman of the board of the National Center for Civil his doctorate in economics from Stanford University in and Human Rights and as a board member of the Volcker 1995. Alliance and the Centers for Disease Prevention and Health Bostic is a board member of the Lincoln Institute of Promotion Foundation. Land Policy. Born and reared in Philadelphia, educated at Howard University and the University of Pennsylvania, Franklin has lived with her family in Atlanta since 1972.

DAVID E. ALTIG SHEILA AMOROSO KATHERINE BARRETT AND RICHARD GREENE David E. Altig is Sheila Amoroso is a executive vice presi- senior vice president dent and director and the director of of research at the the municipal bond Atlanta Fed. In addi- department at the tion to advising the Franklin Temple- bank’s president on ton Fixed Income monetary policy and Group, as well as related matters, he portfolio manager serves as a member of its manage- of the Franklin Federal Tax-Free ment and discount committees. Altig Income Fund. Amoroso, who joined Katherine Barrett and Richard is an adjunct professor of economics Franklin Templeton Investments in Greene are principals at Barrett at the University of Chicago’s Booth 1986, holds a bachelor of science and Greene Inc. and special project School of Business. Altig has served degree from San Francisco State consultants to the Volcker Alliance, as a director of the National Associa- University and an MBA from Notre where they have collaborated on tion for Business Economics and as Dame de Namur University. She is a three Truth and Integrity in State vice president and associate director member of the California Society of Budgeting reports and working of research at the Federal Reserve Municipal Analysts and the National papers that include Rainy Day Fund Bank of Cleveland. He earned his Federation of Municipal Analysts. Strategies: A Call to Action. They are bachelor’s degree in business admin- senior advisers at the Government istration from the University of Iowa Finance Research Center, fellows and his master’s and doctorate in at the National Academy of Public economics from Brown University. Administration, columnists for Gov- erning magazine, and senior fellows at the Governing Institute.

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THAD CALABRESE CHRIS CUNNINGHAM THOMAS G. DOE Thad Calabrese is an Chris Cunningham is Thomas G. Doe is the associate professor at a research economist president of Munici- New York Universi- and policy adviser in pal Market Analytics ty’s Robert F. Wagner the research depart- Inc., an independent Graduate School ment of the Fed- research firm he of Public Service. eral Reserve Bank founded in 1995 that Calabrese studies of Atlanta. He has provides strategic public and nonprofit examined issues of analysis and com- financial manage- land development mentary on historical ment, as well as the institutions that and housing supply, the intersection and quantitative conditions of the affect managerial decision-making of mortgage and labor markets, edu- US municipal market. Doe’s atten- in these entities. His research focuses cation in the developing world, ag- tion has been on innovative ways to on organizational slack resource glomeration and workers’ skills, and generate new revenue for states and management, debt management, the political economy of the property cities. He is currently focused on the and the relationships between the tax. He has published papers in sev- impact of climate risk on investor state and not-for-profits. Calabrese eral leading journals, including the behavior and the ability of issuers to is treasurer of the Association for Review of Economics and Statistics, raise capital for essential infrastruc- Research on Nonprofit and Volun- the Journal of Urban Economics, the ture needs. Doe served a three-year tary Action and the chair-elect of National Tax Journal, and Regional term, from 2002 to 2005, as a public the Association for Budgeting and Science and Urban Economics. He member on the Municipal Securities Financial Management. He serves received his undergraduate degree in Rulemaking Board. He received his on the Governmental Accounting economics from George Washington undergraduate degree from Colgate Standards Advisory Council and has University and a doctorate in eco- University and a master’s from Har- coauthored three textbooks. nomics from Syracuse University. vard University.

KAYE HUSBANDS FEALING MARTI FISCHBACH CAMILA FONSECA-SARMIENTO Kaye Husbands Marti Fischbach Camila Fonseca- Fealing is Chair is the director of Sarmiento is a of the School of employment and research associate at Public Policy at the economic assistance the Institute for Ur- Georgia Institute of in Dakota County, ban and Regional In- Technology, spe- Minnesota, with frastructure Finance, cializing in science oversight of all public where she is engaged and innovation assistance programs, in applied research policy; the public child support, and related to public value of research expenditures; and employment services. Her exten- budgeting and finance and evaluating underrepresentation of women and sive public sector experience over economic impacts of infrastructure minorities in STEM fields. She was a the past 20 years includes working investments. She holds a master of professor at the Humphrey School of in three counties as well as at the public policy from the University of Public Affairs, University of Minne- Minnesota Department of Human Minnesota and a bachelor’s degree sota; professor at Williams College; Services. Fischbach has had the op- in economics and finance from and inaugural program director of portunity to be involved in innovative Universidad del Rosario, in Bogotá, the National Science Foundation projects using an integrated service Colombia. Science of Science and Innovation delivery framework. During the Policy program. A member of the implementation of the Affordable executive board of the American Care Act, she participated in plan- Association for the Advancement ning and implementation at the local of Science and an AAAS Fellow, she level. Fischbach has a master of pub- holds a doctorate in economics from lic affairs from the Humphrey School Harvard University and a bachelor’s of Public Affairs at the University of in mathematics and economics from Minnesota. University of Pennsylvania.

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WILLIAM GLASGALL TRACY GORDON ANDREW HAUGHWOUT William Glasgall Tracy Gordon is a Andrew Haugh- has been senior vice senior fellow at the wout is a senior vice president and direc- Urban-Brookings president and policy tor of state and local Tax Policy Center, leader at the Federal initiatives at the Vol- where she researches Reserve Bank of New cker Alliance since and writes about York. He coedits 2014. He has super- fiscal challenges the Liberty Street vised the publication facing state and local Economics blog and of numerous Alliance governments, in- the bank’s Economic working papers and studies, includ- cluding budget trade-offs, intergov- Policy Review and is a Penn Institute ing three Truth and Integrity in State ernmental relations, and long-term for Urban Research scholar. He also Budgeting reports. Glasgall previous- sustainability. Gordon has previously serves on the advisory board of the ly was managing editor at Bloomberg served as a senior economist with the Journal of Regional Science and is News for states and municipalities White House Council of Economic a past chair of the Federal Reserve and managing editor at BusinessWeek Advisers, a fellow at the Brookings System Committee on Regional magazine, where he won two Over- Institution, assistant professor at Analysis. Before joining the New York seas Press Club reporting awards. the University of Maryland School of Fed, Haughwout served as assistant He is a member of the Municipal Public Policy, a fellow at the Public professor and director of the Urban Fiscal Health working group of the Policy Institute of California, and a and Regional Planning program at Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and member of the District of Columbia’s Princeton University. He holds a a governor of the Overseas Press Task Force on Infrastructure. She is bachelor’s degree from Swarthmore Club Foundation. A graduate of a trustee of the American Tax Policy College and a doctorate from the Boston University, Glasgall was also a Institute and National Tax Associa- University of Pennsylvania. Knight-Bagehot Fellow in Economics tion, as well as a member of the ex- and Business Journalism at Columbia ternal advisory panel of the Govern- University. ment Finance Research Center.

JACK HILL JEFFREY HOLLAND KIL HUH Jack Hill is a Georgia Jeffrey Holland is Kil Huh is vice state senator. He is vice president of re- president of the Pew chairman of the Sen- search at the Peter G. Charitable Trusts’ ate Appropriations Peterson Foundation. governance perfor- Committee and vice He oversees analy- mance portfolio, chairman of the Sen- ses produced for leading work on fiscal ate Rules Committee. the public, manages and economic policy. He also sits on the grants distributed by He and his team help Natural Resources the foundation, and decision makers and the Environment, Regulated helps coordinate events to connect adopt evidence-based policies that Industries and Utilities, Finance, various stakeholders to discuss issues improve the outlook for long-term and Retirement committees. Hill, with budgetary impact. Holland, who growth. Huh also oversees activity on a Republican, was first elected to specializes in fiscal and economic family economic security, including the Georgia Senate from the Fourth policy, budget process, and data the study of Americans’ financial District in 1990. He will be dean of analysis, previously spent twenty-six well-being and such economic chal- the Georgia Senate when he enters years at the Congressional Budget lenges as consumer finance, retire- his thirtieth session in 2020. His pre- Office. For eighteen of those years, ment security, and student debt. He vious chairmanships include of the he was chief of the projections unit, was director of policy and consulting K-12 Education, Higher Education, where he oversaw the data compila- for the Fannie Mae Foundation. Huh and Ethics committees. Hill served tion, writing, and production of large holds a bachelor’s degree in urban thirty-seven years in the Air National parts of publications such as the regional studies from Cornell Uni- Guard and Air Force Reserve as a unit Budget and Economic Outlook and versity; a master’s in urban planning commander, and as inspector general Analysis of the President’s Budget. from New York University; and a and a reserve forces officer with the master’s in philosophy and a doctor- Selective Service System. He is a ate in urban planning from Columbia retired grocer. University.

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DENNIS LOCKHART GEORGE “MAC” MCCARTHY MARY MURPHY Dennis Lockhart is Since 2014, George Mary Murphy is the the former president “Mac” McCarthy project director for and chief execu- has been president the Pew Charitable tive officer of the and chief execu- Trusts’ state fiscal Federal Reserve tive of the Lincoln health initiative. Bank of Atlanta, in Institute of Land She oversees teams which capacity he Policy, a think tank in that identify policies served on the Fed’s Cambridge, Massa- and practices that Federal Open Market chusetts, that seeks help states main- Committee. His tenure spanned the to improve quality of life through the tain a balanced budget, prepare for financial crisis, the Great Recession, effective use, taxation, and steward- downturns, invest in long-term eco- and several years of recovery. He ship of land. McCarthy previously nomic growth, and strengthen local retired in 2017. Lockhart is currently directed Metropolitan Opportunity governments. Murphy leads outreach a distinguished professor-of-the- at the Ford Foundation. Among other to state and local policymakers, practice in the Sam Nunn School of positions, he was a senior research building cross-state networks and International Affairs at Georgia Tech. associate at the Center for Urban and offering customized technical as- He also sits on several for-profit and Regional Studies at the University of sistance. Before joining Pew, she was nonprofit boards. His earlier career North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where a researcher and analyst at Wider comprised banking, private invest- he received his doctorate in econom- Opportunities for Women, where she ment, and teaching at Georgetown ics; professor of economics at Bard wrote reports on employment, eco- and Johns Hopkins universities. College; and resident scholar at the nomic, and income security issues. Jerome Levy Economics Institute. He She also specialized in social safety received a bachelor’s degree in eco- net programs at the Urban Institute. nomics and mathematics from the Murphy holds a bachelor’s degree in University of Montana and a master’s sociology from Reed College. in economics from Duke University.

GABRIEL PETEK THOMAS W. ROSS JAMES SALZER Gabriel Petek was Thomas W. Ross is James Salzer is an as- appointed Cali- president of the Vol- sistant senior editor fornia’s legislative cker Alliance. He also for state government analyst in February serves as the Sanford and politics at the 2019, becoming the Distinguished Fellow Atlanta Journal- sixth person to hold in Public Policy at Constitution. He has the office since it was Duke University’s covered government established in 1941. Sanford School. Ross and politics for most Petek serves as the was president of the of his thirty-six nonpartisan fiscal adviser to both University of North Carolina from years in journalism, first as a political houses of the California legislature 2011 to 2016 and is now president writer and columnist for the Abilene and oversees the preparation of fis- emeritus of the system. Ross previ- Reporter-News; then as a local cal and policy analyses of the state’s ously served as president of David- government reporter for the Florida budget and programs. Before joining son College, executive director of Times-Union; and as a statehouse the office, he spent two decades at a foundation, director of the North reporter, editor, and investigative S&P Global Ratings as the primary Carolina court system, a judge in journalist in Atlanta for Morris News analyst for the states of California Superior Court, and chief of staff to Service and the Atlanta Journal- and Illinois. He graduated from a congressional representative. He Constitution since 1990. At the AJC, Loyola Marymount University with a also practiced law and was on the Salzer has specialized in stories on bachelor’s degree in political science faculty of UNC at Chapel Hill. Ross state spending, taxes, pensions, and from Harvard University’s Ken- holds a bachelor’s in political science campaign finance, and legislative nedy School of Government with a from Davidson College and a JD with culture. He earned a bachelor’s in master’s in public policy. honors from UNC at Chapel Hill. mass communications from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and lives in Decatur, Georgia, with his wife, Anna Varela.

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JULIETTE TENNERT LISA WASHBURN Juliette Tennert is director of economic Lisa Washburn is a managing director at and public policy research at the Kem C. Municipal Market Analytics Inc., where she Gardner Policy Institute, specializing in heads the consulting and credit surveillance Utah’s economy, economic forecasting and practices. She is a contributor to the firm’s modeling, and fiscal policy analysis. She has Municipal Outlook and Municipal Default served as Utah budget director and chief Trends and assists in maintaining its Credit economist for Governor Gary Herbert, as Impairment Database. Washburn was chief economist for Governor Jon Hunts- previously a managing director at Moody’s, man, and as a fiscal analyst for the Utah where she led several ratings teams and legislature. Tennert previously was a research analyst for initiatives related to municipal default analysis and ratings the Center for Business and Economic Research at the comparability. She serves as the industry practices cochair University of Nevada, Las Vegas, from which she received for the National Federation of Municipal Analysts and is on a master’s degree in economics. She also has a bachelor’s the Governmental Accounting Standards Advisory Council. degree in economics from the University of Chicago and Washburn is a member of the Municipal Analysts Group of has been honored as one of Utah Business magazine’s “30 New York and is a certified management accountant. Women to Watch.”

ABOUT THE EVENT PARTNERS

THE VOLCKER ALLIANCE advances effective management THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA is a part of the of government to achieve results that matter to citizens. nation’s central banking system, which Congress created in 1913. We envision a public sector workforce with the experience, The Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy by influencing preparation, and commitment to ensure that government is money and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of full accountable and delivers with excellence. Visit volckeral- employment and stable prices, supervises and regulates bank- liance.org to learn more. Follow us on social media @Volcker- ing institutions, and helps ensure that the nation’s payments Alliance and subscribe to the Volcker Alliance newsletter for systems operate smoothly. The Atlanta Fed serves the Sixth the latest news and developments. The Volcker Alliance is a Federal Reserve District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, 501(c)(3) organization. and Georgia, as well as sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The Atlanta Fed participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous commercial banks, and provides a variety of financial services to depository institutions and the U.S. government. Visit frbatlanta.org to learn more.

In this working paper, the Volcker The Volcker Alliance Alliance examines the rainy day report Truth and fund policies and practices of all Integrity in State fifty states, based on the find- Budgeting: Preventing ings and data underlying our 2017 the Next Fiscal Crisis and 2018 Truth and Integrity in is our second annual State Budgeting reports. Build- study of US state ing on reserve fund grades in the budgeting practices, reports and supplemental research, covering fiscal 2016 we discuss why rainy day funds through 2018. are crucial budgetary tools and identify best practices that states can adopt to soften the impact of economic, fiscal, and natural disasters.

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