theMINORITYREPORT The annual news of the AEA’s Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession, the National Economic Association, and the American Society of Hispanic Economists
Issue 11 | Winter 2019
Nearly a year after Hurricane Maria brought catastrophic PUERTO RICAN destruction across the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017, the governor of Puerto Rico MIGRATION AND raised the official death toll estimate from 64 to 2,975 fatalities based on the results of a commissioned MAINLAND report by George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health (2018). While other SETTLEMENT independent reports (e.g., Kishore et al. 2018) placed the death toll considerably higher, this revised estimate PATTERNS BEFORE represented nearly a tenth of a percentage point (0.09 percent) of Puerto Rico’s total population of 3.3 million AND AFTER Americans—over a thousand more deaths than the estimated 1,833 fatalities caused by Hurricane Katrina in HURRICANE MARIA 2005. Regardless of the precise number, these studies consistently point to many deaths resulting from a By Marie T. Mora, University of Texas Rio Grande lack of access to adequate health care exacerbated by the collapse of infrastructure (including transportation Valley; Alberto Dávila, Southeast Missouri State systems and the entire electrical grid) and the severe University; and Havidán Rodríguez, University at interruption and slow restoration of other essential Albany, State University of New York services, such as running water and telecommunications.
continued on page 4 } THE MINORITY REPORT CSMGEP MEMBERS CONTENTS Advancing Minority Representation Gary Hoover, co-chair in the Economics Field University of Oklahoma Ebonya Washington, co-chair The Minority Report is a joint publication Yale University FEATURES of the American Economic Association’s James Alm Puerto Rican Migration Committee on the Status of Minority Tulane University and Mainland Settlement Groups in the Economics Profession (CSMGEP), the American Society of Amanda Bayer Patterns Before and Swarthmore College After Hurricane Maria Hispanic Economists (ASHE), and the by Marie T. Mora, Alberto Dávila, National Economic Association (NEA). Vicki Bogan and Havidán Rodríguez . . 1, 4-7 Published annually, The Minority Report Cornell University showcases the people, programs, Renee Bowen School Choice and research, and activities of the three University of California, San Diego Achievement: The Case groups, which together work to increase of Charters in Texas the representation of minorities in the Lisa Cook by Marcus Casey . . . . .10-13 economics profession. (ex officio) Michigan State University Academic Mentoring Kalena Cortes Relationships: The Good, Committee on the Status of Minority Texas A&M University the Bad, and the Ugly Groups in the Economics Profession by Vicki L. Bogan . . . . .18-20 (CSMGEP) was established by the Jose Fernandez American Economic Association (AEA) University of Louisville in 1968 to increase the representation of Marie Mora PIPELINE minorities in the economics profession, (ex officio) University of Texas PROGRAMS primarily by broadening opportunities Rio Grande Valley for the training of underrepresented Summer Training James Peoples Jr. minorities. CSMGEP, which is composed Program ...... 3 University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee of economists from all areas of the Summer Economics profession, also works to ensure that Gustavo Suarez Fellows Program ...... 3 issues related to the representation of Federal Reserve Board The Mentoring minorities are considered in the work of Program ...... 3 the AEA, and engages in other efforts to ASHE OFFICERS promote the advancement of minorities in Susan Pozo the economics profession. ECONOMISTS (president) Western Michigan University www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/committees/ TO WATCH Luisa Blanco Raynal csmgep (past president) Pepperdine University Alfonso Flores-Lagunes Passion as Motivator: American Society of Hispanic Fernando Lozano “I Want to Know More” . . . 8-9 Economists (ASHE), established in 2002, (president-elect) Pomona College is a professional association of economists Sue Stockly Kaye Husbands Fealing who are concerned with the under- #NERDPRIDE: Nurturing (vice president of communications) representation of Hispanic Americans in A Culture of Innovation . . 14-15 Eastern New Mexico University the economics profession at a time when Susan Collins Hispanics represent more than 16 percent Alberto Dávila A Career for an of the U.S. population. (secretary-treasurer) Southeast Missouri Eclectic Mind ...... 16-17 State University www.asheweb.net NEA OFFICERS ECONOMIC National Economic Association JOBS BEYOND (NEA) was founded in 1969 as the Gbenga Ajilore Caucus of Black Economists to promote (president) University of Toledo 21-23 ACADEMIA . . . the professional lives of minorities within Omari Swinton the profession. In addition to continuing (president-elect) Howard University its founding mission, the organization ANNOUNCEMENTS is particularly interested in producing Rhonda Vonshay Sharpe (past president) Women’s Institute for & ACTIVITIES. . . 24-31 and distributing knowledge of economic issues that are of exceptional interest to Science, Equity and Race promoting economic growth among native Romie Tribble Jr. and immigrant African Americans, Latinos, (secretary) Spelman College and other people of color. Hazel Robinson www.neaecon.org (treasurer) U.S. Department of Agriculture
2 theMINORITYREPORT PIPELINE PROGRAMS
} Summer Training Program Fellowships are open to all economists without regard to gender or minority status, although the goal of The AEA Summer Training Program (AEASP) at Michigan the program—advancing the careers of women and State University is an intensive two-month residential underrepresented minorities—will drive the selection program that offers talented undergraduates seriously process. considering post-graduate studies in economics the Applications are due by February 1, 2019. opportunity to develop and solidify their math, research, and other technical skills needed in doctoral programs. For more information, visit the AEA website at The program offers two levels of courses—foundations https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/committees/ and advanced—and students taking the foundation summer-fellows-program. level can apply for a second summer to continue on to advanced work. } The Mentoring Program Program includes travel costs to/from Michigan, room and board, and a $3,250 stipend. Established in the mid-1990s, the AEA Mentoring Program (formerly known as the Pipeline Program) Download the application: http://econ.msu.edu/aeasp (applications page). Essay, references, and transcripts is generously supported by the National Science required for consideration. Foundation (NSF). The program matches Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and Native American When: May 30-July 28, 2019 economics PhD students and new PhD graduates with Where: Michigan State University, in collaboration with mentors in the field, and also facilitates networking Western Michigan University between senior economists and students at all stages of the educational and career pipelines. One of the Deadline for application: January 31, 2019 program’s main activities is the Summer Mentoring For more information call or email: Pipeline Conference, which brings together the [email protected] | 517-884-8468 mentees in the program, their mentors, other senior Website: http://econ.msu.edu/aeasp economists in and outside of academia, and the undergraduate students in the AEA Summer Training Program. Moreover, the Mentoring Program provides } Summer Economics Fellows Program limited funding to support the research and travel of the mentees, including for presentations at major Sponsored by the American Economic Association conferences. and the National Science Foundation, the Summer Economics Fellows Program is designed to increase For applications and more information, the participation and advancement of women and see the AEA website: underrepresented minorities in economics. http://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/committees/ csmgep/pipeline. Fellows spend a summer in residence at a sponsoring research institution, such as a Federal Reserve Bank or Deadlines for funding requests: March 1, August 15, other public agency. Summer economics fellowships are and October 1, 2019 available to senior graduate students and junior faculty.
Issue 11 | Winter 2019 3 } continued from page 1
In fact, many of these basic services were not restored United States in the wake of Hurricane Maria. In addition for months (or in some cases, nearly a year); for example, to addressing whether the net migration outflow even three months after Maria, electricity had not been intensified, we consider mainland destination areas. restored to nearly half of the island’s residents (Robles Understanding where Puerto Rican migrants settle has and Bidgood 2017). important economic and policy implications, such as for employment, education, civic engagement, and Under these conditions, the massive post-Maria exodus business formation, particularly because many stateside from the island is not surprising. However, Hurricane communities were already home to growing numbers of Maria struck at a time when the island was already Puerto Ricans before Maria. experiencing the largest net outmigration in its history (and, as a percentage of the population, the largest ESTIMATES OF RECENT OUTMIGRATION since the “Great Migration” in the 1950s), which had been spurred by La Crisis Boricua—an unrelenting FROM PUERTO RICO economic crisis that started in 2006 (Mora et al. 2017). Coupled with low fertility rates, the net outmigration A firm estimate of the number of people who left Puerto of over half a million people during the decade before Rico after Hurricane Maria based on standard large Maria resulted in a 10.5 percent net population decline national data sets (such as the American Community between 2006 and 2016 (Mora et al. 2017, 2018).1 Survey and Puerto Rico Community Survey) is not yet Hurricane Maria exacerbated the net outmigration, which available. The estimates in Table 1 suggest that the is likely to expedite the island’s population decline (due exodus has been substantial, ranging from under 16,000 to additional net outmigration in conjunction with low people to nearly 136,000. To place these numbers in fertility rates) and the aging of its population (due to context, the number of people who moved from the relatively high life expectancy and the overrepresentation island to the mainland within six months of Maria’s of younger people, including those of childbearing age, landfall represented as much as one-fourth of the net among the outmigration flow). Moreover, the scale of the migration between 2006 and 2016 (503,092 people; exodus is affecting the mainland communities where the Mora et al. 2018). migrants have settled. The largest estimate of post-Maria migrants in Table In this report, we provide an update on the net migratory 1 comes from a May 2018 report by Hinojosa et al. at flows of Puerto Ricans from the island to the mainland Centro, the Center for Puerto Rican Studies at Hunter College. Using school enrollment data, prior migration data, and other sources, Hinojosa et al. estimate TABLE 1: Estimates of Net Migration from Puerto Rico to U.S. Mainland that 135,592 people migrated to the mainland within half a year after Estimated Migration Maria’s landfall. Combining this Source Time Frame to Mainland estimate with our pre-Maria net Mora et al . (2018) Pre-Maria: 2006–2016 503,092 outmigration estimates, we find that Centro September 20, 2017–March 2018 135,592 nearly 639,000 people moved to the U.S. mainland since 2006, which CNN USPS October 1, 2017–December 31, 2017 6,590 * is equivalent to one-sixth of Puerto CNN FEMA September 20, 2017–November 11, 2017 10,600 * Rico’s entire 2006 population. Teralytics October 2017–February 2018 47,652 Other estimates in Table 1 based Notes: As discussed in the text, the samples of the post-Maria migrants may not be representative due to on alternative data sources covering differences in data collection and empirical methodologies . The Mora et al . (2018) estimates reported in this table, and presumably the additional estimates, include people who do not self-identify as Puerto Rican . a shorter time frame suggest a smaller but nonetheless substantial * Estimate is more likely to reflect households than individuals. Assuming these households were typical number of net migrants. An analysis of Puerto Rican households (which had an average of 2.4 residents), these numbers would reflect 15,816 people for the USPS estimate and 25,440 people for the FEMA estimate . by Teralytics based on a sample of
4 theMINORITYREPORT nearly half a million smartphones suggests that 47,652 people according to our analysis of the 2016 Puerto Rican net migrants left Puerto Rico for other parts of the Community Survey, these samples suggest that 15,816 to United States between October 2017 and February 2018 25,440 people moved stateside within three months of (Echenique and Melgar 2018). However, this estimate Maria’s landfall. likely understates the post-Maria net migration because the sample only includes cellphone users covered by a MAINLAND DESTINATIONS OF particular carrier without extrapolating to estimate the number of migrants served by other carriers or those PRE- AND POST-MARIA MIGRANTS without smartphones. The scale of the net outmigration from Puerto Rico A February 2018 analysis by CNN investigative reporters (even before Hurricane Maria) is of socioeconomic, (Sutter and Hernandez 2018) provides two additional demographic, and political significance to the island, estimates of outmigration. The first is the 6,590 requests but these migration flows also influence the mainland to the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) to change mailing host areas. Figure 1 shows the geographic distributions addresses from Puerto Rico to a mainland destination reported in the aforementioned studies of post-Maria between October 1, 2017, and December 31, 2017. The migrants. For comparison, we also show the geographic second is the 10,600 applications for disaster assistance distribution of Puerto Rican migrants from the island from the Federal Emergency Management Agency between 2006 and 2016.2 The states are listed in order (FEMA) from mainland zip codes between September of the number of Puerto Rican migrants received in the 20, 2017, and November 11, 2017. Given that these decade before Maria: Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, numbers likely reflect households instead of individuals Texas, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Connecticut. and that the average Puerto Rican household had 2.4 Despite the different empirical methodologies and data sources, Figure 1 shows that the four Estimated Distribution of Mainland Locations of FIGURE 1: aforementioned post-Maria samples Recent Migrants from Puerto Rico between 2006 and 2016 had geographic distributions similar and after Hurricane Maria to that of pre-Maria migrants.3 In light of the scale of the migration, this means that communities with 0 rapidly growing numbers of Puerto Pre ri or et Rican migrants before Maria have