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US-India Relations in 2014: After the Election, Opportunity for Revitalizing

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US-India Relations in 2014: After the Election, Opportunity for Revitalizing BACKGROUNDER No. 2919 | JUNE 2, 2014 After the Election: Opportunity for Revitalizing U.S.–India Relations Lisa Curtis Abstract The 2014 election of India’s Bharatiya Janata Party presents an oppor- Key Points tunity for reinvigorating U.S.–Indian ties, which have suffered from a recent state of malaise. The previous government, led by the Congress n India’s election of a new Bharati- Party under Manmohan Singh, had been weakened by a series of cor- ya Janata Party (BJP) govern- ruption scandals and showed little initiative in regard to building ties ment presents an opportunity for reinvigorating U.S.–Indian ties. with the U.S. during its second term. Fresh leadership in New Delhi under Prime Minister Narendra Modi will provide opportunities to n It is essential that the U.S. dem- expand cooperation on defense and security, as well as on economic, onstrate its willingness to do business with new BJP Prime counterterror, nuclear, and other issues. But the U.S. must first signal Minister Narendra Modi. its willingness and commitment to collaborating with the new govern- ment—and that it will not dwell on the controversy of the 2002 Gujarat n The new Indian government is expected to focus on reviving riots, which led the U.S. to revoke Modi’s tourist visa in 2005. the Indian economy and encour- aging private-sector growth, ndia’s recent election of a new Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gov- which should help raise con- Iernment presents an opportunity for reinvigorating U.S.–Indian fidence among U.S. investors ties, and ending the malaise that has taken over the relationship in and improve overall U.S.–Indian the past few years. The previous government, led by the Congress economic ties. Party under Manmohan Singh, had been weakened by a series of n The BJP also will likely pursue corruption scandals and showed little initiative in regard to build- a more assertive foreign policy ing ties with the U.S. during its second term. Fresh leadership at than its Congress Party prede- the helm in New Delhi will open opportunities to expand coopera- cessor, which presents oppor- tion on defense and security, as well as on economic, counterterror, tunities as well as challenges for the U.S. A more decisive nuclear, and other issues. Indian approach to foreign policy In order to take advantage of this opportunity to invigorate ties, could lead to greater coopera- leadership in both countries must be clear on the importance of the tion between the U.S. and India relationship to each country’s fundamental foreign policy objec- in the Asia–Pacific, for instance, but increase tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi. This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg2919 n Produced by the Asian Studies Center It is in the national interest of The Heritage Foundation both India and the U.S. to move 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE beyond the current plateau in Washington, DC 20002 relations and build a durable and (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org strategic partnership. Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 2919 JUNE 2, 2014 tives. For its part, the U.S. must demonstrate that it leges for U.S diplomats and removing security barriers is ready to do business with new BJP Prime Minis- at the U.S. embassy in New Delhi. ter Narendra Modi, and that it will not give him the U.S.–Indian ties had been foundering long before cold shoulder over the 2002 Gujarat riots, which led the Khobragade episode. Washington was disap- to the killing of nearly 1,000 people, mainly Mus- pointed by India’s decision in 2011 to buy French lims, over a three-day period. In 2005, the U.S. had (rather than American) aircraft to fill an $11 bil- refused to grant Modi a tourist visa due to concerns lion order for advanced fighter jets, as well as by the that, as chief minister of the state of Gujarat dur- Indian parliament’s passage of legislation in August ing the rioting, Modi did not do enough to stop, and 2010 that virtually shut U.S. companies out of India’s may have even encouraged, the rioters. The Indian civil nuclear industry. Moreover, the Singh govern- courts have absolved Modi of criminal behavior dur- ment’s unwillingness to implement needed econom- ing the rioting, and the BJP took steps to reach out to ic reforms led to disappointment among potential Muslim voters during the recent campaign season. U.S. investors and undermined prospects for India’s Because of impressions created by its opposition future economic growth. to the historic U.S.–India civil nuclear deal over the A new government in New Delhi provides an oppor- past several years, the BJP will have to demonstrate tunity for both sides to move beyond the current pla- its support for the development of strategic ties with teau in relations. Prime Minister Modi is expected Washington. The previous BJP-led government to focus on reviving the Indian economy and tak- under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998– ing steps to encourage private-sector growth, which 2004) was instrumental in elevating ties between should help raise confidence among U.S. investors Washington and New Delhi, and in laying a solid and improve the overall atmospherics of U.S.–Indian foundation for a partnership built on mutual good- economic ties. Modi recognizes that his party was will. The BJP’s opposition to the civil nuclear agree- voted into power on promises to improve the econ- ment and its push for nuclear-liability legislation that omy and clean up corruption. With gross domestic poses serious obstacles to U.S. investment in India’s product (GDP) growth projected to dip below 5 per- civil nuclear sector, however, have led to disappoint- cent in 2014, Modi is under pressure to take immedi- ment in the U.S. and raised questions about whether ate steps that will help put the economy back on track. the BJP still prioritizes strong relations with the U.S. A More Assertive Foreign Policy Diplomatic Spat Jars U.S.–India Ties The BJP is likely to adopt a more robust foreign The Indo–U.S. relationship has been tested over policy than the Congress Party did, in order to meet myriad issues during the past several years, but took the challenges of a rising China and an unsteady its hardest hit last December when the U.S. arrested Pakistan. The BJP’s election manifesto, which was and tried Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade for released to the public on April 7, states: underpaying and mistreating her Indian maid while serving at the Indian consulate in New York. The details [The] BJP believes a resurgent India must get its of Khobragade’s arrest, particularly the news that she rightful place in the comity of nations and inter- was handcuffed in front of her children’s school and national institutions. The vision is to fundamen- strip-searched1 while in detention, infuriated the Indi- tally reboot and reorient the foreign policy goals, an public. The incident seemed to tap into an underlying, content and process, in a manner that locates yet powerful, sense among Indians of being taken for India’s global strategic engagement in a new par- granted and disrespected by the United States. Wash- adigm and on a wider canvas...so that it leads to ington, for its part, was taken aback by the fierce Indian an economically stronger India, and its voice is reaction, which included withdrawing diplomatic privi- heard in the international fora.2 1. Annie Gowan and Anne Gearan, “U.S. Attorney Says Indian Diplomat Arrested ‘in the Most Discreet Way Possible,’” The Washington Post, December 18, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/more-fallout-from-diplomats-strip-search-arrest/2013/12/18/51c0c11c-67eb-11e3-a0b9- 249bbb34602c_story.html (accessed May 21, 2014). 2. BJP, Election Manifesto 2014, http://bjpelectionmanifesto.com/pdf/manifesto2014.pdf (accessed May 21, 2014). 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 2919 JUNE 2, 2014 CHART 1 Congress BJP allies BJP Party All other BJP and Allies 54 282 44 163 Dominate India’s Elections The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies won 336 of 543 parliamentary seats —62 percent—in India’s 2014 general elections. The BJP is the first Indian political party in 30 years to win a majority of seats in the parliament. The Congress Party won only 44 seats, Shiv Sena 18 Telugu Desam Party 16 down from the 200 it had Other BJP Lok Janshakti Party 6 held after the 2009 elections. allies 10 Shiromani Akali Dal 4 Source: GulfNews, “All India Result Status,” http://gulfnews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1334087!image/ 1038565943.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_422/1038565943.jpg (accessed May 21, 2014). BG 2919 heritage.org While a more assertive approach to foreign policy Depsang Plains in the Ladakh region of the state of than was pursued under the second Singh adminis- Jammu and Kashmir. The incursion—probably the tration will pose a few challenges to U.S. policymak- most serious by the Chinese in over two decades—has ers, it also will open opportunities for the U.S. to convinced Indian strategists that it must increasing- draw closer to India. ly factor the potential threat of conflict over its dis- China. A BJP government is likely to adopt a more puted borders with China into its security planning proactive hedging strategy vis-à-vis China, which and projections.
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