Republican Battle Picks up As Bush Loses Strength

The Harris Survey

.or Release: Monday AM, March 17th, 1986 1986 .22 ISSN 0273-1037

REPUBLICAN BATTLE PICKS UP AS BUSH LOSES STRENGTH

By Louis Harris

Over the past year, as the battle for succession in the Republican Party began in earnest, Vice President George Bush has slipped, not gained strength. This is according to the latest Harris Survey conducted by telephone between February 22nd and March 3rd, among a national cross section of 1,305 voters.

The Bush losses can be measured in two ways:

--When pitted against nine other Republicans for the GOP presidential nomination in 1988, Bush leads the pack as the preferred choice of 29 percent, followed by former Senator Howard Baker at 16 percent, Senator Bob Dole at 15 percent, Alexander Haig at 8 percent, Rep resentative Jack Kemp at 6 percent, and former Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick at 6 percent. Others tested were Senator Jesse Helms at 3 percent, Governor Thomas Kean at 3 percent, Evangelical Preacher Pat Robertson also at 3 percent, and Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who received less than one percent.

But a year ago, Bush obtained a higher 38 percent as the preferred first choice, 9 points higher than he is currently showing. In1985, Howard Baker was second at 17 percent, roughly where he is today and Senator Dole had 12 percent, 3 points less than he has now. Representative Kemp had 9 percent, three points more than he has today, and Ambassador Kirk oatrick had 4 percent, two less than she shows now.

The point is that among a combined sample of 752 Republican and independent voters, George Bush has suffered a sharp fall-off, while the roster of his essential opposition has remained at about the same level as a year ago. It should be noted that just among a sample of 428 Republican voters, Bush's first choice total has dropped even more: down from 44 percent in 1985 to a current 31 percent, a decline of 13 points.

--The other measure of the slippage for the Vice President is evident when he is pitted against the Democratic front-runner, Senator Gary Hart. Bush now trails Hart by 54-43 percent, a margin of 11 points. A year ago, Bush and Hart were running in a flat-footed tie, 48-48 percent.

What appears to be happening is that the post-Reagan version of the Republican Party is not nearly as appealing as is the Party with President Reagan firmly ensconced in control. George Bush might be the logical heir to the Reagan political base and good fortunes, but the mantle of power somehow does not seem to be capable of being transferred. In turn, Bush suffers from a perennial problem that besets vice presidents. They are so invisible and lacking in initiative that they do not arouse deep or broad constituencies.

Most damaging for George Bush is that he has slipped among Republicans and independents especially from the best educated and the most affluent sectors. His support among the $50,000 and over group has dropped from 45 percent in 1985 to just 30 percent in 1986. Among those with a postgraduate degree, his backing for the Republican nomination has slipped from 48 percent down to 18 percent. While these are relatively small samples, they are indicative that the voters who pay the most attention to politics and the details of the news are most likely to have dropped off the Bush bandwagon.

There is yet another area of slippage for the Vice President. In the South, his support has dropped from 43 percent in 1985 to 28 percent today, a fall-off of 15 points. Among the white Moral Majority group, his vote preference has dropped from 39 percent to 23 percent. Among this group, the fact that evangelical preacher Pat Robertson of Texas has expressed interest in running

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -2- March 17th, 1986 in 1988 has drawn off 10 points, all largely taken from Bush.

There is high irony in this drop of Moral Majority support for Bush. In conservative politics, he pulled off quite a coup when he was able to obtain the endorsement of the Reverend Jerry Falwell, head of the Moral Majority. Bush worked hard for that endorsement and it was widely seen as a successful effort to block off gains by Representative Jack Kemp among the new right and the Moral Majority types. But Robertson's unofficial entry into the fray appears to have aborted gains for Bush.

It might well be that the basic miscalculation Bush made was to assume that if he could stop Jack Kemp, he then would have relatively open sailing for the 1988 nomination. Kemp indeed appears to also have slipped, dropping as the preferred choice of the GOP from 9 to 6 percent. In addition, Kemp does poorly when pitted against Senator Hart, losing by an over whelming 65-30 percent.

Thus, it appears that Bush has succeeded in stopping the Kemp momentum, but in the process has also stopped his own. In turn, this allowed the field to open up for candidates such as Alexander Haig and Jeane Kirkpatrick to pick up substantial strength, and for moderate conservatives, such as Howard Baker and Bob Dole to move even closer to Bush.

Of course, these early and quite speculative developments can change in the long two years that remain until the 1988 season arrives. But the heat of politics for the Republican nomination has also picked up, warranting earlier measurements and analyses than ever before.

TAB L E S

Between February 22nd and March 3rd, the Harris Survey asked a nationwide cross section of 1,305 voters by telephone:

"Now let me read you the names of some people who have been mentioned as possible Republican candidates for President in 1988. If you had to choose, who would be your first choice from that list?"

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION IN 1988 (Base: 752 Republican and independent voters)

March April 1986 1985 -%- --%

Vice President George Bush 29 38 Former Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee 16 17 Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas 15 12 Former Secretary of State Alexander Haig 8 x Representative Jack Kemp of New York 6 9 Former Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick 6 4 Senator Jesse Helms of North Carolina 3 2 Governor Thomas Kean of New Jersey 3 2 Evangelical Preacher, Pat Robertson of Texas 3 x Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld * x None 3 4 Not sure 8 10

* less than 0.5 percent x not asked

"Now suppose in 1988 for president, it will be Vice President George Bush for the Republicans and Senator Gary Hart for the Democrats. If you had to choose, would you be for Bush or for Hart?"

(continued) ~HE HARRIS SURVEY -3- March 17th, 1986

BUSH VS. HART FOR PRESIDENT IN 1988

March April 1986 1985 --%- --%

Bush 43 48 Hart 54 48 Not sure 3 4

"Now suppose in 1988 for president, it will be Representative Jack Kemp of New York for the Republicans and Senator Gary Hart for the Democrats. If you had to choose, would you be for Kemp or for Hart?"

KEMP VS. HART FOR PRESIDENT IN 1988

March 1986 %

Kemp 30 Hart 65 Not sure 5

MET HOD 0 LOG Y

This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 22nd and March 3rd, among a cross section of 1,305 voters nationwide. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.