University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Open Access Dissertations 5-2010 A History and Test of Planetary Weather Forecasting Bruce Scofield University of Massachusetts Amherst Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations Part of the Geology Commons Recommended Citation Scofield, Bruce, A" History and Test of Planetary Weather Forecasting" (2010). Open Access Dissertations. 221. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations/221 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Open Access Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A HISTORY AND TEST OF PLANETARY WEATHER FORECASTING A Dissertation Presented by BRUCE SCOFIELD Submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Massachusetts Amherst in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May 2010 Geosciences © Copyright by Bruce Scofield 2010 All Rights Reserved A HISTORY AND TEST OF PLANETARY WEATHER FORECASTING A Dissertation Presented by BRUCE SCOFIELD Approved as to style and content by: ______________________________________ Lynn Margulis, Chair _______________________________________ Robert M. DeConto, Member _______________________________________ Frank Keimig, Member _______________________________________ Brian W. Ogilvie, Member _______________________________________ Theodore D. Sargent, Member _______________________________________ R. Mark Leckie, Department Head Department of Geosciences ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to first thank my advisor, Lynn Margulis, for her recognition that my unconventional thesis lies within the boundaries of the geosciences. She understands very well how ideas in science come in and out of fashion and things that were dismissed or ignored in the past may very well be keys to future insights. Second, I wish to thank her for her continuous support of my larger education in matters pertaining to the science of Gaia and in regard to the art of teaching college-level students. Her unique teaching style, which combines rigorous drill on basics and patient nurturing, has been a template for my ongoing development as a teacher. I wish also to thank my committee for their support of my thesis project. Frank Keimig helped me frame an unusual research study in conventional forms wherever possible. Brian Ogilvie stressed the need for objectivity in my historical writing and pointed me towards authors who had already explored and organized some of the territory relevant to my thesis. Rob DeConto always had a good sense of what I was attempting and made many useful suggestions regarding the details of a proper scientific study. Ted Sargent, with whom I had many interesting discussions about controversial subject matter in general, helped with the overall conceptualization of the project. Several others outside of the academic world have either stimulated thought on the topic or helped by directing me to resources. I wish to thank Valerie Vaughan for many discussions on astrology and for her impressive publication, Earth Cycles , an annotated bibliography of scientific matters and recent publications that pertain to geocosmic influences on climate and weather. I also wish to thank Barry Orr for help in technical and software-related matters and for discussions that helped me focus my study. Finally, I wish to thank my mother Lucy Scofield for her moral support and education-related financial help which allowed me to pursue knowledge with reduced pressures. iv ABSTRACT A HISTORY AND TEST OF PLANETARY WEATHER FORECASTING MAY 2010 BRUCE SCOFIELD, B.A., RUTGERS UNIVERSITY M.A., MONTCLAIR UNIVERSITY Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST Directed by: Professor Lynn Margulis A unique methodology for forecasting weather based on geocentric planetary alignments originated in ancient Mesopotamia. The method, called astrometeorology, was further developed by Greek, Arab, and Renaissance scientists including Ptolemy, Al-Kindi, Tycho Brahe and Joannes Kepler. A major 17 th century effort to test the method in a Baconian fashion was made by John Goad. Building on the ideas of Kepler and Goad, I test an isolated component of the method, specifically a correlation between geocentric Sun-Saturn alignments and cold temperatures, using modern daily temperature data from New England, Central England, Prague and other locations. My hypothesis states there is a correlation, shown in daily temperature records, between cooling trends in specific regions and the geocentric alignments of the Sun and the planet Saturn. The hypothesis is supported by a number of tests that show lower temperatures on days when Sun-Saturn alignments occur, especially when near the equinoxes. The astronomy of this positioning suggests that tidal forces on the atmosphere may be part of a mechanism that would explain the apparent effect. The abandonment of planetary weather forecasting by the intellectual elite in 16 th and 17 th century Europe is next organized as a history and discussion. In the final section, applications of the methodology to climate cycles is explored, particularly in regard to a 1536-year recurring cycle of outer planets and a cycle of similar length found in climate records. In addition, an account of biological processes that are structured around astronomical cycles is presented. v CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………….. iv ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………….. v CHAPTER 1. A HISTORY OF NATURAL ASTROLOGY ………………………………………….. 1 1.1 Ptolemaic Distinctions …………………………………………………….… 1 1.2 Origins of Western Astrology …………………………………………….…. 4 1.3 Greek and Roman Astrology ………………………………………………… 8 1.4 Astrometeorology ………………………………………………………….… 14 1.5 Astrology in Arabic Civilization and the Middle Ages……………………… 17 1.6 Almanacs and Astrology in the Renaissance: 1450-1650…………………… 22 1.7 The Attempt to Reform Astrology ……………………………………..…… 27 1.8 Dee and Bacon …………………………..………………………………….. 28 1.9 Johannes Kepler’s Reformed Astrology ……………………………………. 30 1.10 John Goad’s Astro-Meteorologica …………………………………………. 34 2. A SIGNAL FROM SATURN IN DAILY TEMPERATURE DATA………….. ……… 49 2.1 Astrometeorology: Then and Now ……………………………………………49 2.2 The Sun, Saturn and Cold ……………………………………………………. 54 2.3 Testing Sun-Saturn aspects: Harvard Forest, Central Massachusetts…………59 2.4 Testing Sun-Saturn aspects: Amherst, Massachusetts……………………….. 78 2.5 Testing Sun-Saturn aspects: Central England ……………………………….. 83 2.6 Testing Sun-Saturn aspects: Prague, Czech Republic……………………….. 88 2.7 Testing Sun-Saturn aspects: Other Datasets ………………………………… 95 2.8 Testing Sun-Saturn aspects: Southern Hemisphere ………………………….. 98 2.9 Discussion and Conclusions …………………………………………………. 102 3. THE DECLINE AND MARGINALIZATION OF ASTROLOGY………………….... 106 3.1 The Progressive Explanation ………………………………………………… 107 3.2 Renaissance Naturalism ……………………………………………………… 111 3.3 Holism vs. Reductionism …………………………………………………….. 120 3.4 Participating and Non-participating Consciousness …………………………. 123 3.5 Religion and Astrology ………………………………………………………. 125 3.6 Astrology in the 15 th and 16 th Centuries ………………………………………133 3.7 Experimental Science and Capitalism ……………………………………….. 135 3.8 Social Factors …………………………………………………………………139 3.9 Summary ………………………………………………………………………148 vi 4. NATURAL ASTROLOGY AS GEOSCIENCE…………………………………………154 4.1 Orbital Forcing ………………………………………………………………..156 4.2 The Sun, Solar Cycles and Earth …………………………………………….. 161 4.3 UV and Cosmic Ray Flux ……………………………………………………. 173 APPENDICES A. OUTER PLANET ALIGNMENTS MODULATE A 1500-YEAR CLIMATE CYCLE..177 B. LIFE RESPONDS TO AND INTERNALIZES GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL CYCLES……………………………………………………………………………206 REFERENCES ………………………………………..……………………………………222 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. A Short Glossary of Astrological Terms…………………………………………. 13 Table 2. Descriptive terms for Sun-Saturn aspects in Astrometeorology…………………..56 Table 3. Frequency and Magnitude of Shaler Sun-Saturn Cycle Data…………………….. 74 Table 4. Frequency and Magnitude of Prague Sun-Saturn Cycle Data……………………. 95 Table 5. Gravitational Forces on the Earth’s Atmosphere…………………………………..103 Table 6. Saturn-Uranus-Neptune Conjunctions…………………………………………….196 Table 7. Jupiter-Saturn-Uranus-Neptune Conjunctions…………………………………….197 viii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figures 1.a-h. Shaler Temperatures 1964-2002 in the Sun-Saturn Synodic Cycle………………..62 2. Astronomical Distance……………………………………………………………..65 3.a-c. Complex Alignments……………………………………………………………….66 4.a-b. 500 mb Temperatures at Oppositions………………………………………………67 5.a-d. Parallel of Declination…………………………………………………………….. 68 6.a-b. Oppositions Near the Equinoxes………………………………………………….. 69 7. Sun-Saturn Cycle 1964-2002………………………………………………………72 8.a-b. The Seventh Harmonic……………………………………………………………..73 9.a-c. Shaler Controls……………………………………………………………………..75 10.a-b. Shaler Controls by Segment………………………………………………………..76 11.a-b. Random Controls: First Half……………………………………………………….76 12.a-b. Random Controls: Second Half…………………………………………………….77 13.a-b. Jupiter as a Control…………………………………………………………………77 14.a-f. Amherst Temperatures 1971-2000 in the Sun-Saturn Synodic Cycle…………….. 79 15.a-c. Amherst Sun-Saturn Oppositions…………………………………………………. 80 16.a-b. Amherst Controls………………………………………………………………….. 81 17.a-b. Amherst Parallels of Declination………………………………………………….. 82 18. Amherst Sun-Saturn Cycle Analysis………………………………………………