ETHIOPIA MAY - SEPTEMBER 2021 5.5 MILLION PEOPLE in TIGRAY and NEIGHBOURING ZONES of AFAR Issued June 2021 and AMHARA FACE HIGH LEVELS of ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY
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IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS ETHIOPIA MAY - SEPTEMBER 2021 5.5 MILLION PEOPLE IN TIGRAY AND NEIGHBOURING ZONES OF AFAR Issued June 2021 AND AMHARA FACE HIGH LEVELS OF ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY CURRENT SITUATION MAY - JUNE 2021 PROJECTED SITUATION JULY - SEPTEMBER 2021 Phase 5 353,000 Phase 5 401,000 People in Catastrophe People in Catastrophe 5.5M Phase 4 2,078,000 4.4M Phase 4 1,802,000 61% of the population People in Emergency 74% of the population People in Emergency analysed (9M) Phase 3 3,092,000 analysed (6M) Phase 3 2,194,000 People facing high People in Crisis People facing high People in Crisis acute food insecurity Phase 2 1,995,000 acute food insecurity Phase 2 1,037,000 (IPC Phase 3 or above) People Stressed (IPC Phase 3 or above) People Stressed1 - Minimal 1 - Minimal IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 1,463,000 IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 527,000 2 - Stressed People in food People in2 food - Stressed ACTION ACTION 3 - Crisis security security 3 - Crisis 4 - Emergency 4 - Emergency The population analysed in the current (9M) differs from the one of the projection (6M), as Afar, North Wello and Southern Tigray5 - zoneFamine could not be updated due to lack of data. Trend of comparable areas shows a deterioration in the proportion of people estimated in IPC Phase5 - Famine 3 or above. Areas with inadequate evidence Current Situation May - June 2021 Areas with inadequate evidence Disclaimer: This is an IPC global product. It is based on the Areas not analysed conclusions reached by the Ethiopia IPC analysis team. This report Areas not analysed has not been endorsed by the Government of Ethiopia. Map Symbols Overview Map SymbolsUrban settlement Urbanclassification settlement An IPC analysis update conducted in Tigray and the neighbouring classificationIDPs/other settlements IDPs/otherclassification settlements zones of Amhara and Afar concludes that over 350,000 people classification are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between May and June 2021. Area receives significant This is the highest number of people in IPC Phase 5 since the Areahumanitarian receives significant food assistance humanitarian(accounted for infood Phase assistance classification) 2011 famine in Somalia. (accounted> for25% in Phase of households classification) meet 25-50% > of25%1 -caloric M ofinimal households needs through meet assistance 25-50% This severe crisis results from the cascading effects of conflict, of1 -caloric Minimal needs through assistance including population displacements, movement restrictions, 2> -25% Stressed of households meet > 50% 2> -of25% S calorictressed of households needs through meet assistance > 50% limited humanitarian access, loss of harvest and livelihood of3 caloric- Crisis needs through assistance Evidence3 - C Levelrisis assets, and dysfunctional or non-existent markets. 4 - Emergency Evidence Level * 4Acceptable - Emergency As of May 2021, 5.5 million people (61% of the people in the *** AcceptableMedium5 - Famine *****Medium5High - Famine area) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity: 3.1 million *** HighScarceAreas evidence with inadequate due to limited evidence or people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 2.1 million people in Projected Situation July - September 2021ScarcenoAreas humanitarian evidence with inadequate due access to limited evidence or no humanitarianAreas not analysed access Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This is despite the major humanitarian Areas not analysed Map Symbols food assistance that has reached up to 5 million people in the last few months. Map SymbolsUrban settlement Urbanclassification settlement classificationIDPs/other settlements In the areas where data was sufficient to conduct a projection 1 - Minimal IDPs/otherclassification settlements analysis, the situation is expected to worsen through September 2 - Stressed classification Area receives significant 2021, with 4.4 million people (74% of the population analysed) 3 - Crisis in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among these, an Areahumanitarian receives significant food assistance 4 - Emergencyhumanitarian(accounted for infood Phase assistance classification) estimated 400,000 people are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC 5 - Famine (accounted> for25% in Phase of households classification) meet 25-50% Phase 5). These estimations take into account an expansion of Areas with inadequate> ofevidence25% caloric of households needs through meet assistance 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance humanitarian assistance to reach 60% of the population. If the Areas not analysed > 25% of households meet > 50% conflict further escalates or, for any other reason, humanitarian 1 - Minimal > of25% caloric of households needs through meet assistance > 50% Map Symbols of caloric needs through assistance assistance is hampered, most areas of Tigray will be at Risk of 21 - SMtinimalressed Urban settlementEvidence Level classification Famine (see box below). Evidence* Acceptable Level 23 - SCtrrisisessed IDPs/other settlementsMedium classification ** Acceptable * High This IPC analysis serves as an urgent call for the delivery of 43 - EmergencyCrisis *****Medium Area receives significant HighScarce evidence due to limited or crucial life-saving assistance for the millions affected. Urgent *** no humanitarian access 1 - Minimal 45 - EmergencyFamine humanitarian food assistanceScarce evidence due to limited or action is needed to scale up the geographic coverage and (accounted for in Phase classification)no humanitarian access 2 - Stressed 5Areas - Famine with inadequate evidence> 25% of households meet 25-50% quantity of assistance: more people need more assistance, of caloric needs through assistance more consistently, in all affected areas. 3 - Crisis Areas notwith analysed inadequate evidence > 25% of households meet > 50% of caloric needs through assistance 4 - EmergencyMap SymbolsAreas not analysed Evidence Level 5 - Famine Map SymbolsUrban settlement * Acceptable classification ** Medium Risk of Famine Areas with inadequateUrban evidence settlement *** High classificationIDPs/other settlements Scarce evidence due to limited or classification no humanitarian access According to the IPC, Risk of Famine is a statement about the potential deteriorationAreas not analysed ofIDPs/other the situation settlements compared to the most likely Area receivesclassification significant scenario expected in the projection period. It is not an IPC classification,Map Symbols but a statement focusing on a worset case scenario that humanitarian food assistance has a reasonable chance of occurring. While the situation may stabilise or Urbansomewhat settlement(accountedArea improve, receives for in Phasesignificant it isclassification) also possible that the conflict will intensify and expand into areas not yet affected. An expansion of the conflictclassification humanitarianwould result food in assistance further destruction of property and (accounted> 25% for in of Phase households classification) meet 25-50% livelihoods and population displacements, and would further impede humanitarianIDPs/other settlements access.of caloric Food needs assistancethrough assistance is expected to increase from the 3.4 million people reached in April to nearly 6 million people in Juneclassification 2021. There> 25% is, of however, households meet a reasonable 25-50% chance that this of > caloric25% of needs households through meet assistance > 50% will not materialise. In the event that the conflict intensifies and humanitarianArea receives significant assistance plans are significantly hampered, there is of caloric needs through assistance a risk that Famine may occur in North Western, Central and Eastern Tigray.humanitarian food assistance> 25% of households meet > 50% (accounted for in Phase Evidenceclassification)of Levelcaloric needs through assistance > 25% of householdsEvidence* Acceptable meet Level 25-50% of caloric needs** throughMedium assistance **** HighAcceptable > 25% of households** ScarceMedium meet evidence > 50% due to limited or of caloric needs*** throughnoHigh humanitarian assistance access Scarce evidence due to limited or Evidence Level no humanitarian access * Acceptable ** Medium *** High Scarce evidence due to limited or no humanitarian access ETHIOPIA (TIGRAY) | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2 CURRENT SITUATION MAP AND POPULATION TABLE MAY - JUNE 2021 Key for1 - Mtheinimal Map 1 - Minimal IPC Acute2 - Stressed Food Insecurity Phase23 - Classification-S Ctrressedisis (mapped3 - C Phaserisis represents highest severity 4 - Emergency affecting at least 20% of the population) 45 - -Emergency Famine 1 5- M- Finimalamine Areas with inadequate evidence 2 Areas- Stressed with inadequate evidence Areas not analysed 3 Areas- Crisis not analysed Map Symbols 4 - Emergency Map SymbolsUrban settlement 5 Urban-classification Famine settlement classificationIDPs/other settlements Areas with inadequate evidence IDPs/otherclassification settlements Areasclassification not analysed Area receives significant MapAreahumanitarian Symbols receives significantfood assistance humanitarian(accounted for in food Phase assistance classification) Urban settlement (accountedclassification> for25% in Phaseof households classification) meet 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance IDPs/other> 25% of households settlements meet 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance classification > 25% of households meet > 50% >of 25% caloric of households needs through meet assistance > 50% Area receivesof caloric significant needs through assistance humanitarianEvidence