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MCX), a World-Class Oligopoly Which Has Step Worthy of Reversal

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MCX), a World-Class Oligopoly Which Has Step Worthy of Reversal INITIATING COVERAGE 5 FEB 2015 Multi Commodity Exchange BUY INDUSTRY EXCHANGES Crouching tiger We initiate coverage on Multi Commodity Exchange . We see the CTT imposition in Jul-13 as a retrograde CMP (as on 4 Feb 2015) Rs 859 of India (MCX), a world-class oligopoly which has step worthy of reversal. A historically socialist mindset Target Price Rs 1,180 weathered a ‘promoter shock’ and emerged with has led to poor government perception of the commodity futures business. We think this may change Nifty 8,724 unscathed operations and business franchise. Our as India’s economic policy framework begins to lean Sensex 28,883 conviction is driven by the fact that the commodity towards the right in the foreseeable future. exchanges business is at its infancy in India. MCX is KEY STOCK DATA . MCX’s business enjoys significant operating leverage thus poised for non-linear growth with progressive Bloomberg MCX IN as gross margins are high (~90% during FY12-H1FY15). No. of Shares (mn) 51 policy evolution. We believe that MCX can achieve revenue growth MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 44/709 MCX is a persistent leader among Indian commodity without almost any incremental IT investments while focusing on business development efforts. Incremental 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 634 exchanges despite cyclically poor trading volumes in EBITDA margins over FY15-17 can be as high as 81%. STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) its key commodities. Post the recent rationalisation of fixed costs (lower software and service costs), the . MCX has survived a triple shock (promoter change, 52 Week high / low Rs 927/425 CTT and cyclically low volumes) and actually emerged co is poised to derive operating leverage as volumes 3M 6M 12M stronger. It is aggressively launching new products, Absolute (%) 2.7 12.3 71.0 resurface. The recent business development drive will which bodes well in the context of the under- help. At 18x FY17E EPS (implying PEG ~0.4x), MCX’s Relative (%) (1.0) 0.1 28.1 penetrated nature of its business. strong franchise and longer term growth prospects SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) . Key risks : (1) MCX continues to rely on the software look attractively valued. We value MCX at 25x FY17E Promoters - platform of Financial Technologies India Limited, it’s EPS arriving at a target price of Rs 1,180. erstwhile troubled promoter. FTIL could slip on support FIs & Local MFs 35.99 . if there is any adverse outcome of judicial probes that FIIs 20.29 Globally, commodity exchanges are profitable, capital light oligopolies that gain franchise as they grow. We it faces (2) Regulatory risks (3) Competition. Public & Others 43.72 think MCX will be no different, given India’s position as FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Standalone) Source : BSE the third largest global economy in PPP terms. (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Net Sales 4,992 3,197 2,079 3,123 4,167 . The commodity futures business is severely under- EBITDA 3,152 1,457 726 1,607 2,490 penetrated in India, especially when compared to the PAT 2,986 1,528 1,167 1,742 2,430 size of the corresponding physical markets in the EPS (Rs) 58.9 30.2 22.9 34.1 47.6 country. This is mostly because institutions have been P/E (x) 14.3 27.8 36.7 24.6 17.6 Vivekanand Subbaraman barred from trading commodity futures in India. The P/BV (x) 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.5 [email protected] business may see non-linear growth (if, and) when the RoE (%) 27.8 13.3 10.5 15.8 20.6 +91-22-6171-7321 policy framework is corrected. Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters MCX : INITIATING COVERAGE Table of contents A brief history of MCX ....................................................................................................................... 3 The second coming ........................................................................................................................... 5 Fixed costs : MCX has started cutting flab ........................................................................................ 7 Triple-whammy : the worst is over ................................................................................................... 8 Exchanges : A unique business model ................................................................................................ 9 Not a mere utility ............................................................................................................................... 9 Capital light, rich in cash flow .......................................................................................................... 10 Operating leverage .......................................................................................................................... 13 Non-linearity embedded in the business ......................................................................................... 13 Self fulfilling oligopolies ................................................................................................................... 14 MCX : Opportunity knocks............................................................................................................... 15 The India opportunity : significant scope for growth ...................................................................... 15 Robust track record of innovation ................................................................................................... 16 Product innovation: Launch of ‘mini’ contracts .............................................................................. 17 New launch : Crude Oil Mini Futures .............................................................................................. 18 Mean reversion = better volumes ? ................................................................................................. 19 Oppressive regulation : an opportunity ........................................................................................... 21 Key assumptions & prognosis .......................................................................................................... 22 Only ~85% of FY12 ADTV by FY17 .................................................................................................... 22 Transaction fees : key growth driver ............................................................................................... 23 Cost structure analysis : expect robust operating leverage ............................................................ 23 Valuation ........................................................................................................................................ 24 Risks ............................................................................................................................................... 26 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................ 27 Financials ........................................................................................................................................ 31 Page | 2 MCX : INITIATING COVERAGE A brief history of MCX 2010: MoU with Shanghai Futures 2012: First commodity's exchange to 2002: Incorporated in May Exchange. 2010-11: Launched several be listed in India base metals futures contracts 2008: Agreement with BEL for supply 2013: Imposition of CTT and NSEL 2003: Started trading Gold & Silver of freight derivative market and scam due to which FTIL was declared contracts in Nov route rate reports. Becomes a unfit and improper to remain the member of IOSCO promoter 2014: Ownership change - KMB acquires 15% of MCX 2005: Launched crude oil trading (Feb) 2006: More strategic alliances: NYSE- 2015: Launches Crude Oil Mini LIFFE, NYMEX contract - first contract launched Partnership with LME (Oct) after 27 months Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Page | 3 MCX : INITIATING COVERAGE . MCX was incorporated in May 2002, by Financial . FTIL is in the business of developing software and Technologies (India) Private Limited (FTIL). The acting as a technical service provider in respect of Trust restored as KMB is now company commenced trading in November 2003 and automated electronic markets in the areas of finance MCX’s largest shareholder saw non-promoter equity investments by several and technology like foreign exchange, commodities, financial institutions: debts, treasuries, securities, banking and insurance. The promoters of FTIL are Jignesh P. Shah, Dewang As per a share purchase o 2004 – State Bank of India, Bank of India, Union agreement inked by FTIL and Bank and Corporation Bank (no longer invested). Neralla and La-Fin Financial Services Private Limited. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB), o 2005 – HDFC Bank, NSE and NABARD. HDFC Bank the former sold 15% stake in is still a shareholder of MCX while NSE and The NSEL crisis led to FTIL’s exit as MCX’s promoter MCX to KMB at a price of Rs NABARD have exited. The National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) is an FTIL 600/share. o 2006-08 – Fidelity Funds, Citigroup Strategic promoted national level electronic institutional spot Holdings Mauritius Limited, Merrill Lynch market in commodities such as Gold, Silver, Cotton, Urad, This deal was completed on Holdings (Mauritius), GLG Financial Funds, th Passport India Investment (Mauritius) Limited, Copper, Zinc etc. Following the NSEL’s Rs 55bn payment 29 September 2014 and FTIL default (to investors), the Forward Markets Commission also sold its remaining stake ICICI Trusteeship Services Limited, ICICI Lombard General
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