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Indian Exchanges Indian Exchanges INDIA RESEARCH The Final Countdown! June 2009 Nikhil Vora Swati Nangalia 9:54:599:54:59 Sector report INDIA RESEARCH 8 June 2009 Indian Exchanges BSE Sensex: 14998 The Final Countdown! A near US$500trn – 10x world’s GDP – is the turnover on global exchanges today! Intrinsically an annuity business, sticky ‘liquidity’ renders the industry quasi- monopolistic where ‘winner takes all’. High operating leverage with EBITDA margins of 60-80% as also limited capital needs, albeit a one-time heavy investment, imply strong cash flows. The nascent Indian exchange landscape is finally evolving from ‘only equity’ into an inclusive blend of asset classes (commodities, forex, power, etc) with underlying physicals warranting a 2.5x growth in industry turnover to US$10trn by FY14. Now demutualized and electronized entities, the compelling business model is bound to translate scale into profitability. With exchanges inherently commanding high strategic valuations (CBOT acquired at 55x earnings; NSE valued at $2.3bn), logical for their risk-free model, we believe it’s time for ‘value creation’ on Indian exchanges. We are BULLISH. Financial Technologies, the only listed player in the space and Asia’s largest exchange conglomerate, is our BIG bet. Business model…flawless: Revenue sustainability (20% CAGR in global volumes for two decades), high operating leverage (60-80% EBITDA margin) and strong cash flows make exchanges a near-perfect business. With liquidity, the key success factor for an exchange, difficult to ‘poach’, entry barriers in the industry are well defined and lend further resilience to the annuity model. Indian exchanges – on a high: Indian exchanges (US$4trn turnover), synonymous to equity markets, are finally coming of age. Inclusion of varied asset classes – commodities, currencies, power, etc – is set to impart scale and depth to the industry. Based on underlying physicals, industry turnover is expected to reach US$10trn by FY14, primarily spear-headed by the nascent but high-potential commodity exchanges (4x from US$1tr currently). Time for value unlock: Having undergone a swift evolution, the demutualized and electronic entities have overcome structural inefficiencies. Catching the eye of global players, the big-ticket sector has garnered high strategic valuations (NSE valued at US$2.3bn, MCX at $1.1bn and BSE at $0.8bn), which is now set to convert into market capitalization. We are bullish. In the listed space, our big bet is Financial Technologies. We recommend Outperformer with a price target of Rs2,000 – a 40% upside from the CMP. Nikhil Vora [email protected] 91-22-66 38 3308 Indian exchanges industry potential Turnover FY09 Size by 5-year CAGR Basis of estimates Swati Nangalia (US$bn) FY14E (%) [email protected] Commodity 1,050 4,184 32 50% discount to global multiple of futures 91-22-66 38 3260 to underlying physical market Equity 3,042 5,256 12 25% discount to global average for Value IDFC-SSKI Securities Ltd. traded to GDP 701-702 Tulsiani Chambers, Currency 240 960 32 50% discount to global average of 7th Floor (East Wing), OTC:Exchange derivative markets Nariman Point, Total 4,332 10,400 19 Mumbai 400 021. Fax: 91-22-2204 0282 “For Private Circulation only” “Important disclosures appear at the back of this report” IDFC - SSKI INDIA CONTENTS Investment Argument..........................................................................................4 Exchanges: A ‘perfect’ business..............................................................................5 Indian exchanges: A big ticket sector…in a hurry to grow...................................11 Indian exchanges: A US$10trn industry by FY14E..............................................13 High strategic value attached to exchanges… ......................................................18 …huge market capitalization potential................................................................21 Equity Exchanges: ‘Bull’ run.............................................................................23 Indian equity exchanges: From strength to scale..................................................23 The future is in ‘futures’......................................................................................26 Competitive landscape: NSE has caged the bull!..................................................30 Key growth drivers..............................................................................................32 Commodity Exchanges: Midas touch................................................................33 India commodities exchanges: A US$4trn opportunity by FY14E…...................33 …moving towards an organized structure ...........................................................35 Competitive landscape: MCX has monopoly.......................................................39 Key growth drivers..............................................................................................41 Key concerns.......................................................................................................41 Forex Exchanges: ‘Appreciation’ certain............................................................43 Global forex market: US$3trn daily turnover ......................................................43 Indian Forex market: Strengthening....................................................................45 Exchange Traded Derivatives: US$4trn daily turnover by FY14E .......................46 OTC forex market in india: US$40bn daily turnover by FY14E .........................48 Power Exchanges: Lighting up..........................................................................50 Power Trading in india: ‘Bright’ future ...............................................................50 Power Exchanges: Let there be light ....................................................................52 Key growth drivers..............................................................................................56 Spot Exchanges: Spotted in india......................................................................57 Indian agri market: Enormous…and inefficient ..................................................57 Electronic spot exchanges: The panacea of all evils ..............................................58 Competitive landscape ........................................................................................61 Revenue model: High volumes…low value .........................................................62 Key growth drivers..............................................................................................63 Exchange Ecosystem..........................................................................................64 Ecosystem: Pillars of the exchange.......................................................................64 Technology solutions for ‘markets’: Low latency is the rage.................................64 Warehousing and agri credit: Supporting commodity markets ............................68 Companies ........................................................................................................76 Financial Technologies........................................................................................ 77 Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) ......................................................................... 137 Indiabulls Financial Services (IFSL)................................................................... 142 National Board of Trade (NBOT) .................................................................... 144 National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).............................. 146 National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE)............................................... 150 National Stock Exchange (NSE)........................................................................ 153 Reliance Money ................................................................................................ 163 JUNE 2009 3 IDFC - SSKI INDIA INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Transparency, annuity revenues, high operating leverage and solid entry barriers make exchanges a near-perfect business. With strong secular growth in the underlying market, the US$4trn Indian exchanges industry is headed for 2.5x growth in the next five years to an annual turnover of US$10trn. Almost on par with global peers in terms of corporate structure and sophistication of systems, Indian players are gathering scale, which is bound to translate into profitability (aggregate profit of $200m for NSE and BSE). We believe the industry is now ripe for value creation – validated by the high strategic values ascribed to NSE (valued at $2.3bn), MCX ($1.1bn) and BSE ($0.8bn) by global exchanges. Financial Technologies, Asia’s largest exchange conglomerate as also the only listed entity in the space, is our BIG bet. We recommend Outperformer with a price target of Rs2,000 – a 40% upside from the CMP. Exhibit 1: Indian Exchange Initiation - Synopsis A US$10 trillion potential by FY14 (2.5x growth) Indian Exchanges Commodity markets Equity markets Indian Exchanges Derivatives 3x physical market Value traded to GDP at 70% discount to The ‘undiscovered’ next The ‘undiscovered’ next (global benchmark of 30-40x) global benchmarks BIGBIG thing thing ! ! Currency markets Power Spot markets Potential of US$8bn/day Only 0.05% of short term US$2tr physical market to (currently US$1bn) trading are on exchanges migrate to exchanges An unparalleled business… Visibility Sustainability Strong business Annuity income assured Strong business 20%
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