Task Force on Financial Stability JUNE 2021
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at BROOKINGS Task Force on Financial Stability JUNE 2021 Glenn Hubbard Donald Kohn Laurie Goodman Kathryn Judge Anil Kashyap Ralph Koijen Blythe Masters Sandie O’Connor Kara Stein Contents 3 TASK FORCE MEMBERS 5 CHAPTER 1. Introduction 21 CHAPTER 2. Framework for Assessing Financial Stability Risks 29 Introduction to Non-Bank Finance 34 CHAPTER 3. Liquidity of the U.S. Treasury Market 52 CHAPTER 4. Insurance Companies 64 CHAPTER 5. Open-End Funds 73 CHAPTER 6. Housing 91 CHAPTER 7. Clearinghouses 101 CHAPTER 8. Regulatory Structure and Process 117 CHAPTER 9. Putting Reforms to the Test 128 BIBLIOGRAPHY 134 DISCLOSURES Members of the Task Force on Financial Stability Co-chair: Glenn Hubbard, dean emeritus and Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia Business School, and a professor of economics in Columbia’s Faculty of Arts & Sciences. Hubbard was chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in the George W. Bush administration. Co-chair: Donald Kohn, Robert V. Roosa Chair in International Economics and a senior fellow in the Brookings Hutchins Center. Kohn was at the Federal Reserve Board from 1975 to 2010, the last several years as vice chair. He is a member of the FDIC’s Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee and a former member of the Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England. Laurie Goodman, co-director, Housing Finance Policy Center, Urban Institute. Goodman spent 30 years as a mortgage-backed securities analyst and research department manager on Wall Street before joining Urban Institute in 2013 to found the Center. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School. She currently also serves as an editor of the Journal of Financial Regulation and as a research member of the European Corporate Governance Institute. Anil Kashyap, Stevens Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is a member of the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee. Ralph Koijen, AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. In 2019, he was awarded the Fischer Black Prize by the American Finance Association given biennially to the top finance economics scholar under 40. Blythe Masters, Industry Partner at Motive Partners, the fintech specialized private equity firm, and CEO of Motive Capital Corp. Masters previously held several senior management posts at JPMorgan Chase where she was a member of the Firmwide Executive Committee. Sandie O’Connor, independent, former Chief Regulatory Affairs Officer of JPMorgan Chase and previously held several senior management positions at the firm. She is a member of the FDIC’s TASK FORCE ON FINANCIAL STABILITY 3 Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee and the Financial Research Advisory Committee of the Office of Financial Research. Kara Stein, Distinguished Policy Fellow and Lecturer-in-Law, University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School and Senior Research Fellow and Director of the AI and Capital Markets Initiative at the Center for Innovation at the University of California Hastings College of Law. She was a member of the Securities and Exchange Commission from 2013 to 2019. NOTE: Nellie Liang, who was the Miriam K. Carliner Senior Fellow at the Hutchins Center at Brookings, was an original member of the task force, but resigned when she joined the U.S. Treasury in early 2021. • Staff: David Wessel and Stephanie Cencula • Editor: David Skidmore • Project manager: Haowen Chen • Graphic designer: Roxanne Bradley-Tate The Task Force on Financial Stability was supported by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and the Smith-Richardson Foundation. The Task Force thanks Jeffrey Cheng, Manuel Alcala Kovalski, Shannon Meraw, and Tyler Powell. TASK FORCE ON FINANCIAL STABILITY 4 Introduction CHAPTER ONE he Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 The onset of the pandemic led to panic in exposed extraordinary fault lines in the financial markets that was arrested only by T stability of the world’s financial system massive and unprecedented interventions and its linkages with the real economy. In the by central banks and governments globally, aftermath of that crisis, the United States, led by the United States. The Task Force on as did other nations, significantly reformed Financial Stability was established before its banking sector. Over the following decade, March 2020, but major lessons from that it built the banking sector’s strength and experience have informed our work. The resilience through more demanding capital banking sector, reflecting the effects of and liquidity requirements as well as rigorous earlier reforms, remained resilient and met stress tests of the largest banks. extraordinary demands for credit created when the interruption of economic activity caused But the disruptions in financial markets in by the pandemic sharply cut business cash March 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic spread, flows. But, in the nonbank sector, the events which threatened to make an already sharp of March 2020 revealed significant fragility contraction in economic activity even worse, and market dysfunction that required those showed that the work of protecting financial central bank and government interventions. stability—of making sure the financial system We conclude that regulatory gaps and changes can provide credit and other critical services in market structure and behavior—driven by in bad times as well as good—is far from new regulations, new technologies, and new complete. In particular, much remains to market entrants—present continuing risks. This leads us to recommendations to address be done on nonbank finance, especially the the evident weaknesses and enhance the provision of credit through markets. ability of the existing regulatory structure to In addition, it is increasingly evident that dynamically identify and address new risks to interest rates may be at historically low levels financial stability in the ever-evolving financial for an extended period, and these low interest landscape. rates might induce excessive risk taking in markets, contributing to the potential for instability that could adversely affect economic activity and employment. The potential for new The Task Force threats underlines the inherent challenge for regulation: It must be dynamic (requiring an The task force was formed in October 2019 ongoing assessment process, not just periodic by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary changes) because of innovation, events, and Policy at the Brookings Institution and the Initiative on Global Markets at the University endogenous responses to prior regulation. of Chicago Booth School of Business.*1 * The idea grew from a paper by Anil Kashyap and Caspar Siegert delivered in June 2019 at a Federal Reserve conference on “monetary policy strategies, tools, and communication practices.” The authors noted the potential for financial stability issues to arise from low-for-long interest rates and the lack of an adequate toolset for authorities to deal with these issues. They suggested forming a group to make recommendations that would bolster the government’s ability to deal with potential problems in the financial system. TASK FORCE ON FINANCIAL STABILITY Chapter 1. Introduction 6 Task force members bring a variety of aware of potential costs and looking for the perspectives and expertise. We also consulted most efficient alternatives to deliver the right many other individuals with knowledge and amount of resilience. experience. The work of the task force has Each section of this report explains been funded exclusively by Brookings, Chicago externalities we have identified—the threats Booth, and the Smith Richardson Foundation. to financial stability—for a particular set of institutions or markets that are the focus of that section. We then propose Guiding Principles recommendations for regulation or, where needed, legislation to address these First, our focus has been on the stability of externalities. the financial system—its ability to deliver Second, we concentrate on nonbank financial essential services, like credit intermediation, intermediation in our effort to identify threats risk mitigation, and payments, even after it to financial stability and recommend ways has been hit by an adverse event. We looked of dealing with them. The Dodd-Frank Act of for externalities or spillovers—circumstances 2010 and the recommendations of the Basel in which private-market decisions under the Committee on Bank Supervision have greatly current regulatory framework could prevent strengthened the resilience of the banking the financial sector from delivering essential system since the financial crisis of 2007-09. services at reasonable prices in bad times We are not arguing that the resulting structure as in good times. These externalities mark of bank regulation and supervision cannot circumstances in which the financial sector be improved. Indeed, we recommend some could make a bad situation worse, with the changes, especially where bank regulation effects spilling over to the economy more intersects with the liquidity of securities broadly, for example by unnecessarily limiting markets. But our view is that regulations to credit to households and businesses. protect financial stability are far less adequate Stability is best achieved through resilience— for nonbank