1

HOW CHINA’S FOOD CHOICES CAN HELP MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE

EATING FOR TOMORROW CONTENTS

ABOUT 5 TO DO TODAY: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 2 5 To Do Today is a campaign initiated in China to influence LIVESTOCK & GREENHOUSE GAS 4 attitudes, motivate behavioral change and create support for climate action. We believe that individuals can make a significant, DEMAND FOR & DAIRY 6 collective impact by modifying daily routines to reduce their environmental footprint. LAND USE ISSUES 8

Our mission is to minimize the impacts of climate change by urging WATER SUPPLY 10 individuals to reduce their energy use and overall resource FOOD SUPPLY 11 consumption. The campaign asks all of us to take five simple actions every day to reduce energy use and consumption. The RISKS TO HUMAN HEALTH 12 current focus is on transportation and food choices. OTHER IMPACTS 14 5 To Do Today is a campaign of WildAid, an organization which has a proven track record of success in influencing attitudes, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN CHINA 15 inciting behavioral change, and creating collective support for SURVEY FINDINGS 16 action to protect endangered wildlife. FOR A TWO-DEGREE WORLD 18 www.5todo.org 5 TO DO TODAY & CNS 20 CONTACT INFORMATION: CONSUMER RECOMMENDATIONS 22 5 To Do Today Matt Grager CHINA IS READY TO LEAD 23 333 Pine St. #300 Climate Program Officer San Francisco, CA 94104 [email protected] ENDNOTES & APPENDIX 24 PROJECT TEAM: Betty Chong, Climate Program Officer

Jenny Du, Climate Program Officer

Matt Grager, Climate Program Officer

Jaclyn Sherry, Executive Assistant

Hugo Ugaz, Graphic Designer

SPECIAL THANKS TO

Avatar Alliance Foundation, Karen Bouris, Brighter Green, California Environmental Associates, Chatham House, Chinese Society, Climate Nexus, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Amy Dickie, Flora L. Thornton Foundation, Samuel Lee Gammage, The Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, Mia MacDonald, My Plate My Planet, Rachel Potter, Walter Reid, Maria Wilhelm, Yi Jian.

5 TO DO TODAY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

WHY EATING LESS MEAT MATTERS: environment – it can also improve your health. High meat 3 consumption is linked to non-communicable diseases, such as LIVESTOCK AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES 14.5% OF ALL GHG diabetes, , heart disease and cancer.

Many experts predict that keeping global warming below the critical WHY CHINA CAN LEAD: two degree Celsius threshold is impossible without a significant shift in diet. 1 Livestock agriculture produces more greenhouse gas (GHG) CHINA PLAYS A KEY ROLE than all global transportation combined.2 By 2050, the predicted increase in meat and dairy consumption would result in a further Due to its large population and rapid rates of economic growth, 3 80% growth of agriculture-related emissions. China is essential to any efforts to curb GHG emissions, especially from meat consumption, in which it already leads the world. China DEMAND IS RISING FAST consumes 28% of meat and 50% of , globally.7,8 consumption is expected to rise 47% by 2030. Yet China is new to By 2050, rising incomes, growing populations and urbanization are mass meat consumption. Average per capita meat consumption has projected to increase meat consumption by 76% and dairy risen six-fold since 1978 to reach 63 kg and could rise another 30 4 consumption by 65%. kg by 2030.9

LIVESTOCK AGRICULTURE DRIVES ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES IT HAS INCENTIVE TO ACT

In addition to GHG emissions, livestock agriculture has significant Reducing meat consumption can benefit China from a health, environmental impacts, including deforestation, desertification, resource, climate and geopolitical perspective. Over 50% of the soil degradation and pollution, water pollution, ocean warming and population is suffering from environmental-related illnesses, many acidification, ocean dead zones, and biodiversity loss. Deforestation of which are made worse by higher meat consumption, such as heart and ocean warming further exacerbate climate change, while disease, obesity, cancer and diabetes. China has 20% of the global desertification and soil degradation can reduce agricultural output. population, but 33% of the world’s diabetics.10 Child obesity has quadrupled in a single generation. The rising healthcare costs LIVESTOCK AGRICULTURE IS UNSUSTAINABLE associated with these emerging crises will be significant.

The world cannot meet the water and caloric needs of a growing IT HAS POLITICAL AND PUBLIC WILL population if current levels of livestock agriculture are continued. The practice involves 33% of all freshwater use, 30% of all ice-free In May 2016, the Chinese Nutrition Society (CNS) issued its most land, 33% of all calories produced, and 50% of all protein, resources recent ten-year dietary guidelines, which recommend reducing 5,6 which all may be negatively impacted by climate change. meat consumption by over 50%. A 2015 5 To Do Today survey showed that 83% of middle-class urban residents are willing to eat WE CAN ACT NOW vegetarian at least one day each week, with 62% willing to do so at least two days per week. The survey also showed high awareness of Unlike reducing GHG emissions from energy or transportation, the health impacts of meat consumption and moderate awareness which require developing new technologies and building new of the environmental impacts. infrastructure, reducing emissions from livestock agriculture can be immediately addressed at the individual level. Simple and direct AN OPPORTUNITY TO LEAD THE WORLD steps, such as reducing portion size, eliminating food waste, substituting lower-carbon (e.g. chicken for beef) and Were the CNS dietary recommendations to be adopted nationally, increasing the number of meatless consumed can all help emissions from meat consumption in China would decrease by an lower emissions. amount equal to 1.5% of global emissions or 6% of Chinese emissions. Without a dietary shift, emissions from meat consumption in China LOWER EMISSIONS, BETTER HEALTH would rise over 50% by 2030 to equal more GHG than the 2012 national emissions of every country except China, the , The benefits of eating less meat go beyond the climate and India and Russia.

EATING FOR TOMORROW LIVESTOCK & GREENHOUSE GAS

As the main driver of climate change, powerful than carbon dioxide, gaseous releases of cows and sheep. 4 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are respectively.11 Per unit of protein, beef, pork, and chicken typically associated with fossil fuels used Many people will be surprised to learn that emit 150, 25, and 20 times the GHG of for energy, transportation or industry. burning fossil fuels is not the only major .15 Because livestock emissions Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, source of GHGs. Emissions from livestock come mainly from large ruminant animals, methane and nitrous oxide trap heat in the are calculated to be at least 14.5% of the the 60 billion chickens each year contribute Earth’s atmosphere, thus raising the global total.12,13 That is greater emissions only 10% of livestock emissions while the temperature of the planet. Though each of than all of global transportation – more 1.4 billion cows contribute 66%.16 In these gases traps heat at different rates, than every car, truck, train, plane and ship addition to being less flatulent than cows they are all calculated in their equivalent on Earth combined. or sheep, chickens convert feed more amount of carbon dioxide, known as the efficiently and use less land, both of which carbon equivalent (CO eq). For example, Animal feed production and the land-use 2 reduce their overall emissions. methane and nitrous oxide, two GHGs change required for it accounts for 30% of emitted during the livestock agriculture all livestock emissions.14 The largest source process, are 25 and 298 times more (39%) is from enteric fermentation–the

FIG. 1: GHG EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK Source: Gerber, et. al. “Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock,” 2013 “THE GHG CONTRIBUTIONS FROM 26% MANURE LIVESTOCK ARE 39% GREATER THAN ENTERIC FERMENTATION EVERY CAR, TRUCK, TRAIN, PLANE AND SHIP ON EARTH 6% COMBINED.” PASTURE

5% ENERGY USE

24% FEED CROPS

5 TO DO TODAY 5

A single factory farm with 1,000 head of cattle produces waste equivalent to a city of 164,500 people. 17 In 2011, there were 1.4 billion cows on Earth.18 Photo: Alamy

MEAT ALONE CAN BUST THE GHG emissions, we would exceed the amount from transportation, energy or carbon budget as early as the 2030s.21 industry, reducing emissions from CARBON BUDGET agriculture requires little new While many people understand the infrastructure or technology. It could be Governments and experts, including the importance of transitioning away from accomplished immediately with a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate fossil fuels for energy production or worldwide decision to shift away from Change, have determined that the worst transportation, few publicly suggest a meat consumption. For more information impacts of climate change are likely to be similar shift away from meat consumption on mitigation scenarios in agriculture avoided if warming is stopped below two despite its annual contribution of at least 7 please see page 26. degrees Celsius above 19th century levels. 22 GtCo2eq. Compared to reducing the same Reducing emissions from our meat and dairy consumption is important not only because it represents a significant FIG. 2: GHG EMISSIONS PER KG OF MEAT(KGCO2EQ) proportion of total emissions, but also Source: Chatham House “Changing Climate, Changing Diets,” 2015 because of how little GHG we can emit in 80 the future while keeping warming below this limit. As it stands now, the world has 70 already warmed a full one degree Celsius.19 60 56.6 In order to understand how much GHG can be released and still stay below two 50 degrees, the carbon budget was created. In order to have a likely chance (>66%) of 40 staying below two degrees warming, the 31.3 world can emit only 870 gigatonnes of 30

CO2eq (GtCO2eq) between 2009 and 20 20 2100. With current annual global 8.8 emissions hovering around 50 GtCO2eq, 7 10 5* the world will push past the two-degree 3.9 2.6 threshold by 2030 without significant 0 changes. One expert, Dr. Richard BEEF LAMB PORK CHICKEN EGGS CATTLE Oppenlander, goes so far as to say that MILK *Soybean calculation reflects a no-tillage cultivation in moderately degraded savannah. even if livestock were the only source of

EATING FOR TOMORROW DEMAND FOR MEAT & DAIRY

Due to the growing population, rising global trade also makes Western-style diets 6 incomes and urbanization, meat and dairy more common, as they are better marketed “CHINA WILL BE THE consumption are increasing around the and cheaper than ever before. globe. By 2050, meat and dairy consumption LARGEST SOURCE OF Due to the combination of high population are expected to rise by 76 and 65% and increasing per capita consumption, respectively,23 contributing to an 80% INCREASED DEMAND. China will be the largest source of increase in agricultural emissions.24 These increased demand. It currently consumes emissions, plus the requirements for large IT CURRENTLY twice the amount of the second place amounts of land, water and crops to raise United States and is projected to triple the livestock, makes the growth of meat CONSUMES TWICE US total by 2030. Even Brazil, where per consumption unsustainable. capita consumption doubled from 40 kg to THE AMOUNT OF THE This increase is happening fastest in over 80 kg since 1980, represents only a developing countries as a part of a larger small fraction of the total demand in SECOND PLACE trend known as the nutrition transition. China.26 Meat consumption in western countries Increased demand for livestock is not new. US AND IS PROJECTED remains higher per capita, but has mostly Over the fifty years between 1960 and 2010, plateaued or even declined slightly.25 The global meat production rose from 150 TRIPLE THE US TOTAL nutrition transition occurs because rising million tonnes to 300 million tonnes, while incomes allow developing countries to afford average consumption quadrupled from BY 2030.” higher-priced food, which often includes less 10kg to over 40kg.27 In order to meet rising whole foods and more food prepared outside demand for livestock products, the world the home. Urbanization combined with has had to produce more crops by

FIG. 3: ANNUAL MEAT & DAIRY CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY (1,000S OF TONNES) Source: California Environmental Associates, “Dietary Trends in Asia,” 2013

130,000

120,000

110,000

100,000

90,000

80,000 CHINA

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000 UNITED STATES 30,000 BRAZIL 20,000

10,000 INDIA 0 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

5 TO DO TODAY 7

In 1992, the first McDonalds to opened in Beijing. Today, there more than 2,000 McDonalds locations across China. 28 Photo: Alamy increasing yields per hectare and cultivating MEAT CONSUMPTION IN CHINA The study that predicts a 30 kg increase more land, neither of which will be feasible also predicts that beef consumption will in the near future. The Green Revolution Since 1978, the average annual income in make up 10% of that rise, from 5 kg per year 29 increased yields in the 1960-80s by creating China has grown from $200 to $6,000. per person in 2010 to 8 kg in 2030.35 This and mainstreaming genetically modified The average Chinese consumer now eats rise would mean an additional 233 63kg per year,30 six times as much as in crops, pesticides and chemical fertilizers, megatonnes (MtCO2eq) in GHG emissions 31 while deforestation made the necessary 1978, and consumption is predicted to annually. The predicted 20 kg rise in pork 32 farmland available. Further deforestation rise an additional 30 kg by 2030. This consumption by 2030 would add an growth is happening four times faster than will cost the planet vital carbon sinks and estimated 244 MtCO2eq to annual GHG storage, while additional chemical inputs the next fastest-growing consumer, Brazil. emissions.36 Out of three recent projections could degrade critical topsoil that is already China now consumes 28% of the world’s for per capita demand for meat in China in overstressed in addition to contributing its meat and dairy products and half of its 2030, two would result in an increase in own GHG emissions. pork.33 The predicted rise in per capita GHG emissions from meat consumption of consumption would be the equivalent of over 50%. For more information on GHGs adding another United States to total from meat consumption in China see page global demand for meat and dairy products 26. by 2030.34

EATING FOR TOMORROW LAND USE ISSUES FIG. 4: LAND NEEDED FOR PRODUCTION OF 1 KG FOOD (SQUARE METERS) 8 With demand for meat and dairy set to rise by 76 and 65%, what will it take in terms of Source: Okologie + Landbau 159, 3/2011, p40–42 www.soel.de land, crops and water to meet the demand for livestock of 9.7 billion people in 2050 35 and 11.2 billion by 2100?37

Whether looking at land, water and crops 30 individually or as an ecosystem it is clear that there will not be enough resources to meet the growing demand for livestock 25 agriculture if feeding the growing population is also to be achieved.

As with the crop and water inputs, more land 20 is required to produce beef than any other meat, at 30 square meters per kilo. Both chicken and pork require approximately 20 15 square meters, still much higher than soy, , potatoes and , which require less than two square meters.38 In 10 aggregate, the large land use requirements for livestock presents many challenges, especially as demand for meat and dairy 5 grows.

Livestock agriculture uses 70% of all 0 agricultural land and 30% of all the ice- BEEF PORK CHICKEN EGGS FRUITS VEGETABLES free land on Earth.39 If the entire global population were to eat the average North of topsoil annually due to wind and water erosion, or five times as much as was lost American diet, the resulting tripling of annually during the US dustbowl of the 1930s.44 China now has half the arable land animal-based protein consumption would per person compared with 50 years ago. require at minimum a doubling of cropland.40 By 2050 an area of forests the • As China has run out of arable land to grow feed at home, it has begun buying and size of India will have been purposefully leasing farmland overseas. In 2012, the International Institute for Sustainable deforested mainly for agriculture, releasing Development reported that it identified 54 Chinese overseas agricultural projects totalling over 18,000 square miles–an area 40% larger than Taiwan–in countries over 100 GtCO2eq, or one-sixth of the 45 planet’s remaining carbon budget.41 ranging from Ukraine to Zimbabwe.

LAND USE ISSUES IN CHINA: DEFORESTATION • China has 20% of the world’s Livestock agriculture contributes to deforestation in three ways. First, forests are often population but only 7% of its arable cleared for grazing. This is the number one cause of deforestation in nearly every Amazon 46 land.42 country, and accounts for at least 70% of Amazon forest loss. Second, forests must be cleared to grow crops, mainly soy, used to feed livestock. Lastly, by causing general climate • Each year, 400 million people in China change, the GHG emissions from livestock accelerate forest loss already underway. are affected by desertification, which caused 24,000 towns and villages to Livestock agriculture has had a significant impact on the world’s forests, particularly in vanish between 1950 and 2000.43 Central and South America. In the past 40 years, over 40% of Central American forests have been cut down and an area of rainforest twenty times larger than Taiwan has been • In 2008, an official survey estimated cleared from the Amazon, predominantly for livestock and its feed.47 A further seven that China was losing 4.5 billion tons football fields worth of land is cleared every minute to make room for livestock.48

5 TO DO TODAY LAND DEGRADATION Livestock agriculture contributes to other forms of land degradation, including desert- ification and soil degradation, which reduce the available space and nutrients needed for growing food.

Each year, 20 million acres of arable land are lost to desertification, 35 times the historical rate.50 Livestock agriculture is responsible for about one-third of this total loss, or an area only slightly smaller 9 than Hainan Island. In that last 40 years, nearly one-third of the world’s arable land has been lost, and 25% of the Earth’s total land area is now either highly degraded or currently undergoing high rates of degradation.51

The land lost to desertification and degradation directly diminishes a key resource for food production. Total land lost to degradation dating back to only 1995 would be sufficient to feed the current global population a -based diet year- round.52, 53

A soy plantation intrudes into the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. Chinese imports account for 64% of the global soy trade and grew 253% between 2003 and 2012. Soybean , an ingredient in animal feed represents nearly 80% of Chinese soy imports.49 Photo: Alamy

FIG. 5: CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON 2000-2005 Source: H.K. Gibbs, 2009

20–25% SMALL-SCALE “BY 2050 AN AREA OF AGRICULTURE FORESTS THE SIZE OF INDIA WILL HAVE BEEN 2–3% PURPOSEFULLY LOGGING DEFORESTED MAINLY 1–2% OTHER FOR AGRICULTURE.” 5–10% 65–70% LARGE-SCALE CATTLING AGRICULTURE RANCHING

EATING FOR TOMORROW WATER SUPPLY

In total, one-third of all freshwater used globally is for animal FIG. 6: LITERS OF WATER PER KG OF MEAT 10 agriculture.54 Agriculture overall is responsible for 70% of all Source: Institution of Mechanical Engineers freshwater use and 93% of global water depletion. By 2030 humanity’s annual global water requirements will rise by 50% and 15,400 10,400 6,000 5,500 4,300 3,200 exceed sustainable water supplies by 40%.55, 56 The meat and dairy we put on our plate are inextricably linked with the exploitation of this resource.

As with all other inputs, water usage varies depending on the type of livestock. Switching from beef, the largest user at over 15,000 liters of water per kilogram of meat, to any other type of meat does BEEF SHEEP PORK CHICKEN CHEESE more for the planet than switching from any other type of meat to plant-based proteins. Compared to , beef, pork and chicken use 9, 4 and 3 times as much water per kilogram.57

The World Bank predicts that 2.8 billion people will live in regions with absolute water scarcity by 2025.58 Yields from rainfed agriculture, which supplies 60% of the world’s food,59 are predicted to be down by 50% as early as 2020 due to climate change.60

Up to one third of the world’s largest aquifers are already being drained faster than they are replenished, most of them concentrated in food producing regions that support over 25% of the planet.61

The food sector is responsible for about half of all organic water pollutants. In developing countries, up to 90% of waste water, including that which results from agriculture, flows untreated into oceans, lakes, rivers and streams.62

WATER ISSUES IN CHINA • China irrigates over half its farmland, five times as much as 63 the US. Agriculture uses more than 60% of water in China. A farmer tills a drought affected field in Shanxi Province, China. In 2010, agriculture Official government estimates say that 55% of this water is lost used 61% of all freshwater in the country.69 Photo: Alamy through leakage in the system, meaning as much as 33% of all China’s water is wasted through leakage in an inefficient agricultural system.64 Many major cities in China, including FIG. 7: WATER USE BY SECTOR IN CHINA 2010 Beijing, which has experienced 31 consecutive years of drought, Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China are suffering from rapidly falling water tables and subsidence.65

• China has less than one-third the global average of per capita 24% water resources.66 INDUSTRY

• One-third of all major rivers and 60% of all groundwater are polluted, which has resulted in 300 million people drinking contaminated water and almost 200 million suffering from 2% water-related illnesses annually between 2007 and 2012.67 61% OTHER AGRICULTURE • Agriculture is responsible for 42% of water pollution in China, and 67% of both nitrogen and phosphorous discharge, 13% pointing to over-use of fertilizer and pesticides as well as poor MUNICIPAL manure management practices.68

5 TO DO TODAY FOOD SUPPLY

Currently, 25% of all crops, 33% of all calories and 50% of all protein FIG. 8: REQUIRED FOR 1 KG OF MEAT 11 globally go to feed livestock. 70 Livestock animals consume 40-50% Source: USDA of global corn production and 80% of soy.71 By 2050, as much as 50% of crops will be fed to livestock while climate change threatens 1KG: LAMB = 21KG to reduce yields by between 13 and 50% in the same time frame. 72

In the context of world and food security, fed to livestock are misallocated. 82% of undernourished people live in countries that export livestock or export crops for livestock feed.73 1KG: BEEF = 13KG In 2013, scientists from the University of Minnesota concluded that if all food crops were fed directly to humans rather than livestock, 70% more food could be added to the global supply. This supply would be enough to feed an additional four billion people 1KG: PORK = 5.9KG - the same number of people the UN estimates will be added to the global population by 2100.74 1KG CHICKEN = 2.3KG The world currently produces enough crops to provide every person with a daily diet of 2,700 calories.75

CROP ISSUES IN CHINA

• In 2011, China used approximately 70% of its total corn production for livestock feed and only 5% for food.76

• China will have a deficit of 19-32 million tons of corn by 2022, requiring imports approximately equal to a third of the entire world corn trade today.77

• China will account for 40% of the growth in agricultural imports between now and 2050.78 by 253% from 2003-2012, making China the largest importer of soy, with purchases on the global market 5 times larger • Only 12% of total cereals are traded on the global market, of than the next largest importer, the EU.79 which China is the largest buyer. Total soy imports increased

FIG. 9: SOYBEAN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND IMPORTS IN CHINA, 1974-2011 Source: USDA

90 80 CONSUMPTION 70 60 50 40

MILLION TONS 30 IMPORTS 20 10 PRODUCTION 0

1974 1984 1994 2004

EATING FOR TOMORROW RISKS TO HUMAN HEALTH

Meat plays a central role in most traditional gain an additional 2kg over five years 12 and modern food cultures, and consumption compared to the vegetarian.83 This helps “LIKE THEIR AMERICAN continues to grow in many developing coun- explain why on average adult vegans are 4.5 tries. With that growth comes a number of to 9 kg lighter than adult meat-eaters.84 COUNTERPARTS, MORE related health issues. Risks of , obesity, diabetes and cancer all in- HEALTH IMPACTS IN CHINA PROCESSED FOOD, crease with higher levels of meat consump- tion. Dr. Frank Hu of Harvard University As meat consumption grows in China, so MORE MEAT, MORE School of Public Health wrote that there is too do the related health problems. “clear evidence that regular consumption of According to the Chinese Nutrition Society, OILS, FATS AND , especially processed meat, contrib- the biggest health problems in China are utes substantially to premature death.”80 obesity, diabetes, hypertension, high salt SUGARS ARE MAKING intake, and nutrient deficiency. In 2010, On average, vegetarian men live 9.5 years 85% of deaths in China were the result of CHINESE CHILDREN longer than male meat-eaters, and women non-communicable diseases,85 including 6.1 years longer.81 Vegetarians have also many of those listed above. Globally, the DANGEROUSLY been shown to be 32% less likely to develop average is 60%. Many of these diseases, heart disease, 40% less likely to develop such as high blood pressure, heart disease, OVERWEIGHT.” cancer, have a lower risk of diabetes and diabetes and several forms of cancer are have a lower body mass index (BMI). 82 The linked with the over consumption of meat. lower BMI is not attributable to eating less overall, as a 2010 study showed that even China is home to over 100 million diabetic between people who consume the same patients, more than any other country. In amount of calories, the meat consumer will the adult population, 11% suffer from

FIG. 10: OVERWEIGHT POPULATION IN CHINA Source: University of Washington, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation

30% 1980

25% 2013

20%

15%

10%

5%

0 GIRLS BOYS WOMEN MEN

5 TO DO TODAY 13

Non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cancer, hypertension and obesity cause 85% of deaths in China, 25 percentage points higher than the global average.85 Photo: World Health Organization

diabetes, while another 50% are pre- million more are directly exposed to diabetic, putting them at increased risk for occupational hazards.90 “ON AVERAGE, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease and Like their American counterparts, more cancer.86 As a result, the percentage of VEGETARIAN MEN LIVE processed food, more meat, more oils, fats national healthcare expenses used to treat and sugars are making Chinese children diabetes in China rose from 1.96% in 1983 9.5 YEARS LONGER dangerously overweight. In Beijing, to 18.2% in 2007.87 Chongqing and Shanghai, children now THAN MALE MEAT- The average Chinese person is now 8 to 15 consume nearly 30% of their calories from kg heavier than a generation ago.88 Obesity processed packaged foods.91 Between 1980 EATERS, AND WOMEN is defined as a BMI of over 30, while and 2013 the rate of children that are overweight falls between 25 and 30. China overweight quadrupled to 20% and the 6.1 YEARS LONGER.” is now home to the second most obese rate of pre-diabetic children rose to 15%.92 individuals after the US, which has 62 Chinese adolescents now have a diabetes million.89 rate three times that of their US peers.93 Partly due to the growth in childhood Meat consumption can also combine with obesity, China could be home to 800 environmental factors to undermine million overweight or obese citizens by human health. In China, at least half of the 2030.94 population is suffering from chronic and environmental related illnesses while 200

EATING FOR TOMORROW OTHER IMPACTS OF LIVESTOCK

runoff from the Mississippi River; and, a events in which the variety and number of 14 OCEAN DEAD ZONES 145,000 square mile dead zone in the Baltic living species have dropped dramatically, Modern livestock agriculture has not only Sea.97 China’s Bohai Sea is also considered a up to 90%. Scientists now agree that the transformed the terrestrial landscape, it is dead zone. Despite the fact that 20% of the planet is currently in the middle of the sixth also rapidly changing our oceans. In addition nations sewage is dumped there, its main major extinction event, and tellingly, that to the problem of overfishing, the planet’s pollutant source is runoff from fertilizer. 98 humans are its cause. marine ecosystems are coping with acidifi- In total, ocean dead zones now cover over Scientists call this the Anthropocene, the cation and a growing number of dead zones, 1.7 million square miles,99 or an area the epoch where humans have wielded the the primary cause of which is nitrogen and size of South Asia, including Bangladesh, 96 power to alter the environment on Earth phosphorous from agricultural runoff. India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. significantly. Humans have transformed Dead zones have doubled in frequency every the landscape, added GHG and pollutants 10 years since the 1960s and now number BIODIVERSITY LOSS to the air, changed weather patterns, and more than 400 worldwide, including a increased the temperature and sea level. In Over the 3.5 billion year history of life on 5,000 square mile dead zone in the Gulf of this process, we increased the rate of Mexico caused by agricultural and industrial Earth, there have been five major extinction

The Bohai Sea in Northern China, once known as the “Emperor’s Fishery,” is now considered the most polluted waterway in China. 95 Photo: European Space Agency.

5 TO DO TODAY extinction to between 1,000 and 10,000 times its predicted level without human interference (the background rate).100 This is the largest extinction event since a meteor wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago and continues to exterminate 137 species every day.101

Habitat destruction from grazing livestock and feed crops impacts 86% of threatened mammals, 88% of amphibians and 86% of all birds.102 Further estimates are that one in eight birds, one in four mammals and 15 one in three amphibians are facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the near future.103 According to the Alliance for Global Conservation, 36% of all species on Earth are now threatened with extinction.104 Livestock agriculture also contributes to biodiversity loss in other ways, including the hunting of predator species, such as wolves or jaguars, to protect livestock and the use of pesticides, herbicides and chemical fertilizers that pollute the environment, interfere with animal reproduction and poison An endangered golden snub-nosed monkey bares its teeth in the Qinling Mountains of China. It is estimated that only waterways. 3,000 of the species remain due to habitat loss, including deforestation. Photo: Alamy

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN CHINA

The combination of a large population Other climate change impacts outflow of some of the world’s major concentrated on the coast, a relative lack in China include: rivers, including the Yangtze and of arable land and persistent water issues Yellow rivers in China, the • Approximately 85 million people in make China particularly vulnerable to Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus in China currently live on land that will climate change, especially as it relates to India, and the Irrawaddy and be submerged or chronically flooded food security. China’s own National Mekong in Southeast Asia, until by 2100. 106 Due to urbanization, the Development and Reform Commission approximately 2050. However, population growth of coastal cities is acknowledged the following in a combined with more unpredictable occurring three times the national December 2013 Report: monsoon seasons, an increase in rate and could reach between 200 glacial melt will likely result in “Our country is a developing nation with and 245 million by 2060.107 substantial flooding rather than a large population, complex climate • By 2050, 40 to 200 million people alleviating water shortages. conditions and a weak environment could be internally displaced within (situation). The mission to deal with • Globally, climate change will China due to climate change. 108 climate change is very arduous, but increase the frequency, severity and knowledge in society and ability to do • Temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau unpredictability of natural disasters this are weak across the board.”105 are rising at a rate over four times that include floods, droughts and faster than the global average, storms. Recent experiences can be Zheng Guoguang, director of China’s partially due to its arid elevation and expected to continue in China where meteorological administration, reported partially due to the loss of reflectivity the number of natural disasters from in early 2015 that among the most from rapidly melting glaciers, which 2000-2014 rose 57% from the pressing climate related issues in China are expected to be 50% depleted by previous 15-year period. 110 will be food insecurity, extreme weather, 2100. The 1.5 billion people who cities at risk of submersion, and the receive their water supply from these spread of illnesses, including dengue glaciers will increase to 2.2 billion by fever and malaria. mid-century. 109 In the short term this glacial melt will increase the

EATING FOR TOMORROW SURVEY FINDINGS

16 AWARENESS, ATTITUDES & HABITS IN CHINA: • Beef and lamb are more likely to be eaten by men than by women and more likely to be eaten at home than while dining out. In December 2015, 5 To Do Today commissioned Ipsos to conduct • 78.6% report consuming 1 kg of beef or less each week. 75.1% a direct interview 700-person survey across 11 Tier 1 and Tier 2 report consuming 1 kg of lamb or less per week. cities in China, and Intage to conduct a broader online survey of • Nutrition, taste, and food safety were the highest ranked 5,000 people across 13 Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. factors in food choice. • 88.1% of respondents were aware of the negative health KEY FINDINGS: impacts of eating meat. • Based on health, environment or resource factors, 83.7% were • 98% of survey respondents had eaten meat in the last month. willing to adopt a vegetarian diet for at least one day each 95.3% had eaten eggs, while 87.2% had consumed dairy products. week. 62.4% were willing to do so two or more days each week. • Online, 6% reported being vegetarian. Of the non-vegetarians, • 22.4% were unwilling to reduce beef or lamb consumption 64% considered their meat consumption to be at “normal levels.” based on the belief that it would be bad for their personal • 19.2% of men and 13.7% of women dined out more often than health or nutrition. Men were twice as likely to refuse to reduce they dined at home. Younger people reported dining out more consumption as women. often than older ones.

FINDINGS: DECISION-MAKING FIG. 11: FACTORS CONSIDERED IN FOOD CHOICES

60 43.4% 40 29%

20 15.7% 6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0 NUTRITION TASTE FOOD SAFETY PRICE ORGANIC IN-SEASON GMO LOCATION

FINDINGS: IMPACT AWARENESS

FIG. 12: PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS AWARE OF THE IMPACT OF LIVESTOCK OFFLINE ON THE FOLLOWING ISSUES: ONLINE 100 88.1 86 80 67 63 59.7 60 54 49.8 50 48 49

39.5 36.7 40 35.6 35.6

20

0 HEALTH CROP & LAND WATER GHG EMISSIONS MITIGATING DEFORESTATION OCEAN DEAD ZONES, RESOURCES RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE HABITAT LOSS, SPECIES EXTINCTION

5 TO DO TODAY 17

Employees line up for lunch at the Huawei cafeteria in Hong Kong. Photo: Alex Hofford

FINDINGS: MOTIVATIONS FINDINGS: BEHAVIOR CHANGE FIG. 13: WHY PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO EAT LESS BEEF AND/OR LAMB FIG. 15: WILLINGNESS TO REDUCE BEEF AND LAMB CONSUMPTION

81.9%

35.4% 45.2% 38.9%

24%

4.15%

HEALTH CLIMATE ANIMAL REDUCE FASHIONABLE CHANGE WELFARE FOOD COST 64.6%

FIG. 14: WHY PEOPLE REFUSE TO EAT LESS BEEF AND/OR LAMB 64.6%: YES 35.4%: NO

34.5% 30.5% 28.8% 23.5%

4.15%

BAD MEAT BAD FOR NO CLIMATE LIFESTYLE NUTRITION LOVER HEALTH CHANGE

EATING FOR TOMORROW DIET FOR A TWO DEGREE WORLD

18 Halting global warming below the critical threshold of two degrees Celsius will require a dramatic decrease in GHG emissions from all sectors. For a 66% chance of achieving this goal, we will need to reduce annual emissions by 30% by 2030, and 60% by 2050. This effort is complicated by the addition of two billion more people by 2050. More dramatic reductions in the short term will ease the cost and pain of long-term reductions. The sooner we act, the less dramatic the action need be.

In late 2015 two key analyses were released regarding the potential to mitigate climate change by changing what we eat. Both studies found that reaching the two degree Celsius goal may be impoosible without dietary change. The studies found:

• “Immediate and substantial reduction in wasted food and meat and dairy intake, particularly ruminant meat (e.g., beef and lamb), are imperative to

mitigating catastrophic climate Protesters in Britain demand climate action. Photo: change.”111 Garry Knight (creative commons).

FIG. 16: POTENTIAL GHG REDUCTIONS THROUGH GLOBAL DIETARY CHANGE

35

30 GHG EMISSIONS SAVINGS IN 2050 (GTCO2EQ)

GHG SAVINGS AS % OF 2012 GLOBAL EMISSIONS 25

20

15

10

5

0 ADOPTION OF 75% CUT IN MEAT CONSUMPTION 50% CUT IN FOOD WASTE HEALTHY LOW-MEAT DIET + 50% FOOD WASTE CUT + AG YIELD GAINS

5 TO DO TODAY • “Left unchecked, current dietary • “A global reduction in meat and dairy patterns are incompatible with a two- intake by 75% by 2050 could reduce “WORLDWIDE

degree pathway. If we are to avoid emissions by 7.4 GtCo2e, an amount dangerous climate change, global yearly greater than the emissions from the ADOPTION emissions must fall rapidly from today’s entire transportation sector in 2010... OF A HEALTHY DIET levels of 49 GtCO2e to around 23 Smaller reductions in meat intake will 111 GtCO2e by 2050. If meat and dairy likely not be enough to avoid 2°C.” consumption continues to rise at WOULD GENERATE • “Halving global wasted food could current rates, the agricultural sector reduce emissions by an estimated 4.5 alone will soak up 20 of the 23 GtCO e OVER A QUARTER 2 GtCO e. This is greater than reductions yearly limit in 2050, leaving just 3 2 associated with technological GtCO e for the rest of the global OF THE EMISSION 2 interventions such as increasing 19 economy.”112 agricultural yields and technical REDUCTIONS NEEDED • “Emissions...must be kept at or below mitigation.”111 [21 GtCO eq] per year by 2050... Under 2 • “Keeping global warming below 2°C BY 2050.” the business-as-usual scenario... the will more than likely require reduction emissions from agriculture alone would in both meat and dairy intake and nearly reach this emissions threshold in —CHATHAM HOUSE, “CHANGING wasted food, combined with rapid and 2050.”111 CLIMATE, CHANGING DIETS,” 2015 dramatic reductions across non- • “Global adoption of a healthy diet agricultural sectors. The combined would see a yearly emissions saving of 6 effect of adopting a healthy, low-meat

GtCO2e in 2050, almost all of which diet, reducing wasted food by 50% and would result from reduced consumption increasing agricultural yields could of meat and dairy produce.”112 reduce agriculture related emissions by 111 14.3 GtCO2eq by 2050.”

Image Above: World leaders, including General Secretary of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon, celebrate the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement in December 2015. The agreement states that nations will set the goal of keeping global warming “well-below two degrees Celsius.” Photo: Alamy.

EATING FOR TOMORROW 5 TO DO TODAY & THE CHINESE NUTRITION SOCIETY

20

New dietary guidelines released by the Chinese Nutrition BILLBOARD COLLABORATION Society in May 2016 recommend a 50% reduction in meat consumption, from current levels of 63 kg annually In addition to making recommendations for mitigating climate change through diet, both to a maximum of 27.4 kg. 5 To Do Today has partnered Johns Hopkins and Chatham House have recommended key steps to catalyzing the with CNS to disseminate key messages (billboard above) necessary change. Both institutions suggest actions by governments and NGOs to influence about nutrition to every province and autonomous region of China. the public. Chatham House notes that “government inaction signals to publics that the issue is unimportant or undeserving of concern.”113 While Johns Hopkins suggests “leveraging behavior change campaigns aimed at reducing demand for livestock production.”114

5 To Do Today has partnered with the Chinese Nutrition Society to help promote its latest recommended dietary guidelines, released in May 2016. The guidelines are created in partnership with China’s Ministry of Health and are released every 10 years. The latest recommendations include a reduction in meat consumption of over 50% compared to current levels and over 70% compared to projected consumption in 2030. CNS recommends consuming between 40 and 75 grams per day of meat or between 14.6 and 27.4 kg per year.

5 To Do Today has produced posters and billboards featuring celebrity ambassadors to disseminate key nutrition messages to all provinces and autonomous regions of China.

5 TO DO TODAY POTENTIAL FOR EMISSIONS CNS DIETARY GUIDELINES 2016 REDUCTIONS DAILY RECOMMENDATION (G) ANNUAL RECOMMENDATION (KG) Without intervention, GHG emissions from Chinese meat consumption would rise by GRAIN 250 –400 91.25 – 146 over 50% to total over 1.8 GtCO2eq in 2030, greater than the current emissions of all but VEGETABLES 300 – 500 109.5 – 182.5 four countries (China, US, India and 200 – 350 73 – 127.75 Russia). To establish the potential for GHG emissions reductions through adoption of 40 – 75 14.6 – 27.4 the CNS recommended levels of meat consumption, 5 To Do Today examined the MEAT 40 – 75 14.6 – 27.4 21 following two scenarios: EGGS 40 – 50 14.6 – 18.3

2015: DAIRY 300 109.5

In 2015, the nationwide adoption of the BEANS 25 – 35 9.1 – 12.8 CNS recommended levels of meat consumption could have lowered emissions OIL 20 – 30 7.3 – 11 from Chinese meat consumption by 675 SALT 0 – 5 0 – 1.8 MtCO2eq, or 56%. Equivalent to:

• Reducing emissions from agriculture in China by 81% FIG. 17: GHGS FROM MEAT CONSUMPTION IN CHINA (MTCO2EQ) • Reducing global agriculture emissions by over 12% 2000

• Reducing total Chinese emissions by 1804.53 over 6% PROJECTED 1800 • Reducing total global emissions by over 1.5%

1600 2030: By 2030, CNS guidelines could achieve reductions in emissions from Chinese meat 1400 1191.58 consumption of 1.27 GtCO2eq, or 70.8% CURRENT lower than projections. Equivalent to: 1200 • Reducing global agriculture emissions by over 22%.

• Reducing total Chinese emissions by 1000 over 9.5%.

• Switching to the CNS recommended levels of meat consumption could 800 account for 8.5% of the global reductions necessary to stay on the 516.48 526.98 pathway to two degrees, which 600 CNS CNS requires emissions are lowered to approximately 35 GtCO2eq annually by 2030. 400 For full analysis see page 26.

200

0 2015 2030

EATING FOR TOMORROW CONSUMER RECOMMENDATIONS

22 EAT LESS MEAT

While choosing vegan or vegetarian diets will do the most to reduce GHG emissions, every bit counts. If cutting out meat com- pletely is not possible, choosing a diet based on the Harvard Healthy Eating Plate will reduce GHG contributions from food to the same level as a vegetarian diet while still allowing for limited meat consumption. The Livewell Plate would also significantly reduce GHG emission from food and is one of the only diets that takes GHG into its calculations. Even eating one or two more meatless meals per week can help improve health and reduce environmental impacts.

EAT LESS BEEF AND LAMB Rumination contributes 40% of global live- stock emissions and with a thirst for water over 20 times that of , beef and lamb are by far the least efficient and most dam- aging sources of protein.

REDUCE FOOD WASTE Cutting portion size and cleaning your plate whether at a restaurant or at home is the easiest way to reduce GHG emissions from food. Savings vary from 20 to 50% depend- A vendor sells tofu at an outdoor market in Kunming, China. Replacing meat with plant-based proteins such as tofu uses less water and land and can help reduce . Photo: Alamy ing on the country of residence and person- al habits. EAT LOCAL other single perspective are unlikely to consider GHG emissions or sustainability. Local food has, on average, 5 to 17 times Paleo or Atkins diets may help people lose Meatless Monday is a global movement to less GHG emissions than conventionally weight, but all that meat is unsustainable. 115 promote adopting a vegetarian diet one day produced food. Though the exact savings Eating free-range and grass fed beef may each week for health and environmental depend heavily on the on-farm inputs and be better for the quality of cattle life, but reasons. Participating in Meatless Monday transportation involved, local food will cut also contributes more emissions than its not only reduces emissions, it also shows out all flown food, which has a footprint factory-farmed counterpart. Pescetarianism solidarity with a movement for better, much larger than food that has been trucked, is seen as an alternative to the cruelty of healthier and more climate friendly food trained or shipped. factory farms, but those who choose this choices. By familiarizing participants with diet will find it hard to calculate their delicious plant-based recipes, Meatless KNOW YOUR DIET environmental impact and could in fact be Monday also encourages better eating increasing GHG emissions while depleting during the rest of the week. Diets that promote health, weight loss, worldwide fisheries. environmentalism, or any

5 TO DO TODAY CHINA IS READY TO LEAD

There will be no mitigating climate change It is unsurprising then, that the Chinese and 33% the global average per capita water 23 without the commitment of the Chinese Nutrition Society is leading the world in resources. China is likely to feel the effects of government and the cooperation of its 1.4 advocating for significantly reduced meat climate change on food security first, fastest billion people. There are three reasons for this: consumption. By 2030, China is projected and on the largest scale. Reducing meat to add the equivalent of the entire US consumption is a clear way to get ahead of • China is the world’s largest emitter of consumption to global demand for meat these and other potential resource crises. greenhouse gas and has yet to hit an and dairy, which will increase related overall emissions peak. As with the If China is able to make progress on the emissions by over 50%. However, if citizens United States, the second largest issue of meat consumption and the issue of follow the CNS guidelines and reduce emitter, reducing GHG emissions is GHG emissions, it could ignite global consumption to recommended levels, impossible globally without China competition and ultimately inspire others emissions from meat consumption would reducing them locally. to follow suit. Lowering emissions through be 56% less than in 2015 and 70% less than competition benefits us all from a • As the country continues to develop, projected in 2030. sustainability perspective, while leading hundreds of millions of people are set While driving down emissions, adoption of on the issue also benefits China from a to join the ranks of the urban middle CNS recommendations would help ensure geopolitical one. As a 2015 Chatham House class in China. How and what these food security in the face of threats report suggests, “decisive action in the individuals consume will have far- such as water shortages, pollution and West may galvanize belief in China that reaching impacts on the planet. desertification. With 1.4 billion people, change is possible and worthwhile, and • China’s rapid economic development China has 25% of the arable land of the US vise versa.” is considered by many developing countries as a model for bringing their own population out of poverty. If China can show that economic development can coincide with decarbonization, other countries will follow. If China cannot define a path to low-carbon development for low and middle income countries, other nations are more likely to follow the fossil fuel-driven and export-led model that China has followed thus far, which could require further increases in GHG emissions.

Given its centralized political system, China has the opportunity to implement emissions-reduction programs with unmatched speed and scale. This can be seen in its transition away from coal and toward renewable energy sources and in its record sales of new energy vehicles. It can also be seen in its government directives. In 2014, the State Council :

Citizens shall enhance environmental protection awareness and adopt a low- carbon and energy-saving lifestyle, and Professor Yuexin Yang, President of the Chinese Nutrition Society, announces conscientiously fulfill the obligation of her organization’s new dietary recommendations at a press conference on May environmental protection. 15, 2016.

EATING FOR TOMORROW ENDNOTES

28. Yan, Yunxiang, “McDonald’s in Beijing: The 56. Patrick, 2012. 24 1. Kim, Brent, et. al. “The Importance of Reducing Localization of Americana,” New York Times, 1997. 57. Bailey, et. al. 2014 Consumption and Wasted Food in https://www.nytimes.com/books/first/w/watson- arches.html 58. World Bank Group, “Water and Climate Change.” Mitigating Catastrophic Climate Change.” Johns http://water.worldbank.org/topics/water- Hopkins Center for a Livable Future, Dec. 2015. 29. Osnos, Evan, Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, resources-management/water-and-climate-change 2. Bailey, et. al., “Livestock – Climate Change’s Truth and Faith in the New China. Garrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015. 59. Water and Climate Change: Understanding the Forgotten Sector.” Chatham House, Dec. 2014. Risks and Making Smart Investment Decisions. The 3. Avatar Alliance Foundation “Fact Sheet: The 30. Chinese Nutrition Society World Bank, 2009. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/ Environmental Impact of Animal-Based Foods.” 31. Osnos, 2015. external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/201 4. Bailey, et. al. 2014. 32. CEA, 2013. 0/02/01/000333038_20100201020244/Rendered/ PDF/529110NWP0Box31ge0web0large01128110.pdf 5. Ibid. 33. See notes 7 and 8. 60. United Nations Water, “Statistics.” http:// 6. Herrero, Mario, et. al, “Biomass use, production, 34. CEA, 2013. www.unwater.org/statistics/statistics-detail/ feed efficiencies and greenhouse gas emissions 35. Ibid. en/c/211649/ from global livestock systems.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States 36. See Appendix II. 61. Barringer, Felicity, “World’s Aquifers Losing of America, co. 110 no. 52, 20888-20893, doi: 37. Median projections of United Nations Population Replenishing Race, Researchers Say.” The New York 10.1073/pnas.138149110 Division. Times, 25 June 2015. 7. OECD database. https://data.oecd.org/agroutput/ 38. “The Ecological Consequences of Meat 62. United Nations Water, “Statistics.” http:// meat-consumption.htm Consumption,” http://www.vegetarismus.ch/info/ www.unwater.org/statistics/statistics-detail/ eoeko.htm en/c/211794/; http://www.unwater.org/statistics/ 8. Bourne, Joel K. The End of Plenty, 2015. statistics-detail/en/c/211799/ 39. AAF, “Fact Sheet.” 9. California Environmental Associates, “Dietary 63. Beardson, 2013. Trends in Asia: Environmental Impact and the 40. Ibid. 64. Ibid. Potential to Shift Meat Consumption Trends.” 2013. 41. Valentine, Katie, “Humans Are Set To Wipe an 10. “Kids as Food Heroes: A New Way to Eat in China,” India-Sized Chunk of Forest Off the Map by 65. Beardson, 2013. Joint US-China Cooperation on Clean Energy 2050.” Climate Progress, Aug. 24, 2015. http:// 66. Moore, Scott “Issue Brief: Water Resource (JUCCCE), May 2015. thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/24/3694560/ Issues, Policy and Politics in China.” Brookings 11. US Environmental Protection Agency, https:// deforestation-india-sized-chunk/ Institute http://www.brookings.edu/research/ www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gwps. 42. Zhang, Moran, “Field of Dreams? 7 Reasons Why papers/2013/02/water-politics-china-moore html You Don’t Want To Be A Farmer in China.” IBT, 22 67. Beardson, 2013. 12. Bailey, et. al. 2014. August 2013. 68. AgEconSearch, Research in Agricultural and 13. Oppenlander, Richard, Food Choice and 43. Beardson, Timothy, Stumbling Giant: The Threats Applied Economics. (https://fresnostate.digication. Sustainability. Langdon Street Press, 2013. to China’s Future. Yale University Press, 2013. com/nicole_leu/Term_Paper) 14. Kim, et. al., 2015. 44. Ibid. 69. National Bureau of Statistics, China 15. Bailey, et. al. 2014. 45. Demick, Barbara “China looks abroad for greener 70. Bailey, et al., 2014. pastures,” The LA Times, 29 March 2014. http:// 16. AAF, “Fact Sheet.” 71. WWF “Solving the Soy Problem.” http://wwf.panda. www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-china-foreign- org/what_we_do/footprint/agriculture/soy/ 17. “Risk Assessment Evaluation for CAFOs,” USEPA, farmland-20140329-story.html 72. Bourne, 2015. 18. “Counting Chickens,” The Economist, July 27, 2011. 46. Oppenlander, 2013. 73. Oppenlander, Richard, “The World Hunger- 19. McSweeney, Robert “Global temperature rise set 47. UNFAO “Livestock’s role in deforestation.” Food Choice Connection.” 22 April 2012. http:// to hit 1C of warming this year, Met Office says.” http://www.fao.org/agriculture/lead/themes0/ comfortablyunaware.com/blog/the-world-hunger- Carbon Brief, 9 Nov. 2015. deforestation/en/ food-choice-connection-a-summary/ 20. “Understanding Carbon Budgets,” WWF. 2014. 48. Oppenlander, 2013. 74. “Existing Cropland Could Feed 4 Billlion More” 1 http://awsassets.wwf.org.za/downloads/ 49. Gale, Fred, Hansen James, and Jewison, Michael, August 2013. http://discover.umn.edu/news/food- understanding_carbon_budgets_final.pdf “China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural agriculture/existing-cropland-could-feed-4-billion- 21. Oppenlander, 2013. Imports,” USDA, Feb. 2014. more 22. 49 GtCO2eq (estimated annual emissions) X .145 = 50. UNCCD “Climate change and land degradation: 75. Bourne, 2015. 7.105 GtCO2eq. Bridging knowledge and stakeholders.” 9-12 March 76. Shefali, 2014. 2015. 23. Bailey, et. al. 2014. 77. Ibid. 51. Ibid. 24. AAF, “Fact Sheet.” 78. Ibid. 52. Pioneer, “Africa’s Agricultural Opportunities.” 25. Watson, Elaine, “Is the decline in US meat 79. Ibid. consumption terminal?” Food Navigator USA, 12 https://www.pioneer.com/CMRoot/Pioneer/ April 2013. http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/ About_Global/news_media/pannar/Africa_Ag_ 80. Datz, Todd “Red meat raises red flags.” Harvard Markets/Is-the-decline-in-US-meat-consumption- Opportunities.pdf Gazette, 12 March, 2012. http://news.harvard.edu/ terminal 53. UNCCD. gazette/story/2012/03/red-meat-raises-red-flags/ 26. CEA, 2013. 54. Herrero, 2013. 81. “It’s Official, Vegetarians Outlive Meat Eaters,” Times of India, 16 Oct. 2012. http:// 27. United Nations, FAOStat database 55. Beardson, 2013. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/

5 TO DO TODAY Its-official-Vegetarians-outlive-the-meat-eaters/ 96. Oppenlander, 2013. care-about-climate-change articleshow/16830925.cms 97. Zielinski, Sarah “Ocean Dead Zones Are Getting 106. Kahn, Brian “Sea Level Could Rise at Least 6 82. Sifferlin, Alexandra, “7 Reasons Vegetarians Live Worse Globally Due to Climate Change.” Meters.” Scientific American, 9 July 2015 http:// Longer.” Time February 24, 2014. http://time. Smithsonian 20 Nov. 2014. http://www. www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-level- com/9463/7-reasons-vegetarians-live-longer/ smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/ocean-dead- could-rise-at-least-6-meters/ 83. “Cut down on meat to lose weight.” BBC News zones-are-getting-worse-globally-due-climate- 107. Neumann, Barbara, et. al. “Future Coastal July 22, 2010. http://www.bbc.com/news/ change-180953282/?no-ist Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise health-10726414 98. “Dead Zones: How Agricultural Fertilizers Kill our and Flooding – A Global Assessment.” http://www. 84. Wilson, Deborah “Eating Meat Is Linked to Rivers, Lakes and Oceans,” Greenpeace, 2008. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4367969/ Obesity.” http://www.peta.org/issues/animals- 99. Zimmer, Carl “A Looming Oxygen Crisis and Its 108. Population Action International, “Climate Change, used-for-food/obesity/ Impact on World’s Oceans.” Yale Environment Migration, and Population Growth.” http://pai.org/ 85. Yan Min, et. al., “Tackling China’s 360, 5 Aug. 2010. http://e360.yale.edu/feature/a_ wp-content/uploads/2012/01/climatemigration.pdf Noncommunicable Diseases: Shared Origins, Costly looming_oxygen_crisis_and_its_impact_on_ 109. Levacher, Cecile “Climate Change in the Tibetan 25 Consequences and the Need for Action,” Chinese worlds_oceans/2301/ Plateau Region: Glacial Melt and Future Water Medical Journal, 20 Mar 20-15. 100. Center for Biological Diversity, “The Extinction Security.” Future Directions International, 29 May 86. JUCCCE, 2015. Crisis,” http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/ 2014. programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/ 110. The International Disasters Database (EM-DAT). 87. Hackethal, Veronica, “Diabetes Is a Major Public- extinction_crisis/ Health Crisis in China,” Medscape, 18 Sept. 2014. 111. Kim, et. al. 2015. 101. Djoghlaf, Ahmed “Secretariat of the Convention on 88. Levitt, Tom, “China facing bigger dietary health Biological Diversity; A Message from the Executive 112. Wellesley, Laura; Happer, Catherine; Froggatt, crisis than the US.” China Dialogue, 4 July 2014. Secretary.” 22 May 2007. https://www.cbd.int/doc/ Antony, Changing Climate, Changing Diets: 89. Wang, Jeanette “62 million people in China obese, speech/2007/sp-2007-05-22-es-en.pdf Pathways to Lower meat Consumption. Chatham House, Dec. 2015. sparking fears of ‘alarming’ financial burden.” 102. Interview of Simon Stuart, Chair of the South China Morning Post, 29 May 2014. http:// International Union for Conservation of Nature 113. Ibid. www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health/article/1521011/21- Species Survival by Dr. Richard Oppenlander, 2004. 114. Kim, et. al. 2015. billion-people-are-obese-china-and-us-among- , “Facts” http://www.cowspiracy.com/ 115. Cho, Renee, “How Green is Local Food?” Earth worlds-fattest-new facts/ Institute: State of the Planet, 4 September 2012. 90. Zero Hedge, “The Sick Man of Asia – China’s 103. Jowit, Juliette, “Humans driving extinction faster Columbia University. Looming Health Disaster.” 9 June 2015. than species can evolve, say experts.” The Guardian, 116. China’s population expected to reach 1.45 bln 91. JUCCCE, 2015. 10 March 2010. http://www.theguardian.com/ by 2030,” China Daily, Oct. 30, 2015. http:// 92. Ibid. environment/2010/mar/07/extinction-species- www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-10/30/ evolve 93. Levitt, 2014. content_22329857.htm 104. “Extinction crisis continues apace,” IUCN, Nov. 94. Moore, Malcom “China faces looming health crisis, 117. Better Livestock Management Could Rein in Billions 3, 2009. http://www.iucn.org/?4143/Extinction- of Tons of Carbon,” Conservation Magazine; March warn experts.” Telegraph UK, 29 Aug 2014. http:// crisis-continues-apace www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/ 2016. http://conservationmagazine.org/2016/03/ china/11061559/China-faces-looming-health-crisis- 105. Roberts, Dexter “Five Reasons China Should Care ways-greenhouse-gases-livestock-production/ warn-experts.html About Climate Change.” Bloomberg Business, 24 March 2015. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/ 95. Watts, Jonathan, “When A Billion Chinese Jump,” articles/2015-03-24/five-reasons-china-should- Scribner, 2010.

A soybean harvest is underway. Compared to livestock products, soy protein requires less land and water to grow and emits less greenhouse gas. Photo: A Pixabay

EATING FOR TOMORROW APPENDIX CNS GUIDELINE ANALYSIS IN DETAIL

26 POPULATION: by 2030 than stated in this analysis. A livestock, much of the emissions associated recent study estimates that better feed and with Chinese consumption are attributed The National Bureau of Statistics provided grazing practices could reduce total to the country of production. Secondly,

the 2015 population while China Daily emissions from livestock by 2 GtCO2eq agricultural emissions encompass all reports on official population projections globally, mainly from developing countries agriculture, not only those limited to for 2030.116 such as China.117 livestock, meat and dairy.

MEAT CONSUMPTION: TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS: CNS DIETARY GUIDELINES:

Per capita meat consumption in 2015, was Total emissions for the world and China The levels of meat consumption used in provided by the Chinese Nutrition Society. are from the CAIT database provided by these calculations are from the high-end of For projections of meat consumption in the World Resources Institute. As 2015 the range recommended by CNS, 2030, the California Environmental emissions data was not yet available, the approximately 27.34 kg per year. As CNS Associates (CEA) report “Dietary Trends in most recent data (2012) was used for the does not specify the type of meat, the Asia” was used. However, the projection 2015 scenario. proportion of meat types in these for lamb was not provided in the CEA calculations is found by using the projections and was estimated by the EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE: breakdown of meat proportions for current Chinese Nutrition Society for 2030. consumption for the 2015 scenario, and Agriculture emissions for 2015 and from the CEA projections for the 2030 GHGS PER KILO OF MEAT: projections for 2030 in China are from the scenario, then applying those proportions FAOStat database. Unfortunately, as 2015 to the total recommended consumption of In its report Changing Climate, Changing data was not yet available, and the most 27.34 kg. Diet, Chatham House aggregated several recent data (2012) was used for the 2015 assessments on the total emissions per kilo scenario. The emissions data from OTHER NOTES: of meat. However, this analysis does not agriculture is not a perfect comparison to take into account potential reductions in emissions from meat consumption, but This analysis is limited to emissions from emissions intensity through technological provides a useful benchmark. For one, meat consumption only and does not mitigation. Technological mitigation FAOStat emissions calculate GHGs from include emissions from substitute protein combined with the stated reductions in the country of agricultural production, not sources such as soy, seafood or dairy. meat consumption could have even greater the country of consumption. Because of potential for overall emissions reductions the large imports of soy and corn to feed its

GHGS FROM MEAT CONSUMPTION IN CHINA

ANNUAL NATIONAL ANNUAL CON- GHG PER NATION- INCREASE GHG PER CONSUMPTION ANNUAL GHG GHG TOTAL SUMPTION CAPITA, 2030 AL GHG IN GHG, % INCREASE PER CAPITA PER CAPITA TOTAL 2030 IN GHG, KILO PER CAPITA (MTCO2 E Q ) (KGCO2 E Q , 2015—2030 (KGCO2 EQ) 2030 (KG, CEA (MTCO2 E Q , 2015—2030 2015 (KG) 2015 PROJECTED) (MTCO2 EQ) PROJECTION) PROJECTED)

Poultry 7.00 13.34 93.38 128.36 24.00 168.00 243.60 115.24 89.78%

Pork 8.80 40.97 360.54 495.60 58.00 510.40 740.08 244.48 49.33%

Beef 56.60 5.44 307.90 423.25 8.00 452.80 656.56 233.31 55.12%

Lamb 31.30 3.36 105.17 144.57 3.62 113.31 164.29 19.73 13.65%

TOTAL 63.11 866.99 1191.78 93.62 1244.51 1804.53 612.75 51.42%

5 TO DO TODAY GHG FROM CNS RECOMMENDATIONS 2015

ANNUAL CONSUMPTION ANNUAL CONSUMPTION GHG EMISSIONS PER ANNUAL GHG PER NATIONAL GHG TOTAL

PER CAPITA 2015 (KG) PER CAPITA (KG), CNS KILO (KGC02 EQ) CAPITA (KGCO2 EQ) FROM CNS DIET

RECOMMENDATION (MTCO2 EQ), 2015

POULTRY 13.34 5.78 7. 0 0 40.47 55.63

PORK 40.97 1 7.7 6 8.80 156.25 214.78

BEEF 5.44 2.36 56.60 133.44 183.42

LAMB 3.36 1.46 31.30 45.58 62.65 27 TOTAL 63.11 27.35 375.73 516.48

GHG FROM CNS RECOMMENDATIONS 2030

CEA 2030 DIET (KG, ANNUAL CONSUMPTION GHG EMISSIONS PER ANNUAL GHG PER NATIONAL GHG TOTAL

PROJECTED) PER CAPITA (KG), KILO (KGCO2 EQ) CAPITA (KGCO2 EQ) FROM CNS DIET

CNS RECOMMENDATION (MTCO2 EQ), 2030

POULTRY 24.00 7.01 7.00 49.06 71.14

PORK 58.00 16.94 8.80 149.05 216.13

BEEF 8.00 2.34 56.60 132.23 191.74

LAMB 3.62 1.06 31.30 33.09 47.98

TOTAL 93.62 27.34 363.44 526.98

GHG REDUCTIONS FROM CNS RECOMMENDATIONS IN CHINA

ACTUAL GHGS IN PROJECTED GHGS GHGS FROM CNS GHGS FROM CNS CNS % CNS %

2015 (MTCO2 EQ) IN 2030 (MTCO2 EQ) RECOMMENDATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS, REDUCTION, 2015 REDUCTION, 2030

2015 (MTCO2 EQ) 2030 (MTCO2 EQ)

POULTRY 128.36 243.60 55.63 71.14 56.66% 70.80%

PORK 495.60 740.08 214.78 216.13 56.66% 70.80%

BEEF 423.25 656.56 183.42 191.74 56.66% 70.80%

LAMB 144.57 164.29 62.65 47.98 56.66% 70.80%

TOTAL 1191.78 1804.53 516.48 526.98 56.66% 70.80%

TOTAL GHG REDUCTIONS FROM CNS RECOMMENDATIONS

2015 (MTCO2EQ) 2030 (MTCO2 EQ, PROJECTED) CNS REDUCTION IN 2015 AS % OF: CNS REDUCTION IN 2030 AS % OF:

WORLD TOTAL 43286.2 1.56% GHG EMISSIONS

CHINA TOTAL GHG 10975.5 13214.98 6.15% 9.67% EMISSIONS

AGRICULTURE GHG REDUCTIONS FROM CNS RECOMMENDATIONS

2015 (MTCO2 EQ) 2030 (MTCO2 EQ, PROJECTED) CNS REDUCTION IN 2015 AS % OF: CNS REDUCTION IN 2030 AS % OF:

WORLD TOTAL GHG FROM AGRICULTURE 5381.51 5756.07 12.55% 22.19%

CHINA TOTAL GHG FROM AGRICULTURE 831.56 873.46 81.21% 146.26%

EATING FOR TOMORROW This report is printed on 100% recycled paper

5 TO DO TODAY 333 PINE ST. #300 SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94104 TEL: 415.834.3174 [email protected] | www.5TODO.org