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How China's Food Choices Can Help Mitigate Climate Change

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How China's Food Choices Can Help Mitigate Climate Change 1 HOW CHINA’S FOOD CHOICES CAN HELP MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE EATING FOR TOMORROW CONTENTS ABOUT 5 TO DO TODAY: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 2 5 To Do Today is a campaign initiated in China to influence LIVESTOCK & GREENHOUSE GAS 4 attitudes, motivate behavioral change and create support for climate action. We believe that individuals can make a significant, DEMAND FOR MEAT & DAIRY 6 collective impact by modifying daily routines to reduce their environmental footprint. LAND USE ISSUES 8 Our mission is to minimize the impacts of climate change by urging WATER SUPPLY 10 individuals to reduce their energy use and overall resource FOOD SUPPLY 11 consumption. The campaign asks all of us to take five simple actions every day to reduce energy use and consumption. The RISKS TO HUMAN HEALTH 12 current focus is on transportation and food choices. OTHER IMPACTS 14 5 To Do Today is a campaign of WildAid, an organization which has a proven track record of success in influencing attitudes, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN CHINA 15 inciting behavioral change, and creating collective support for SURVEY FINDINGS 16 action to protect endangered wildlife. DIET FOR A TWO-DEGREE WORLD 18 www.5todo.org 5 TO DO TODAY & CNS 20 CONTACT INFORMATION: CONSUMER RECOMMENDATIONS 22 5 To Do Today Matt Grager CHINA IS READY TO LEAD 23 333 Pine St. #300 Climate Program Officer San Francisco, CA 94104 [email protected] ENDNOTES & APPENDIX 24 PROJECT TEAM: Betty Chong, Climate Program Officer Jenny Du, Climate Program Officer Matt Grager, Climate Program Officer Jaclyn Sherry, Executive Assistant Hugo Ugaz, Graphic Designer SPECIAL THANKS TO Avatar Alliance Foundation, Karen Bouris, Brighter Green, California Environmental Associates, Chatham House, Chinese Nutrition Society, Climate Nexus, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Amy Dickie, Flora L. Thornton Foundation, Samuel Lee Gammage, The Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, Mia MacDonald, My Plate My Planet, Rachel Potter, Walter Reid, Maria Wilhelm, Yi Jian. 5 TO DO TODAY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WHY EATING LESS MEAT MATTERS: environment – it can also improve your health. High meat 3 consumption is linked to non-communicable diseases, such as LIVESTOCK AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES 14.5% OF ALL GHG diabetes, obesity, heart disease and cancer. Many experts predict that keeping global warming below the critical WHY CHINA CAN LEAD: two degree Celsius threshold is impossible without a significant shift in diet. 1 Livestock agriculture produces more greenhouse gas (GHG) CHINA PLAYS A KEY ROLE than all global transportation combined.2 By 2050, the predicted increase in meat and dairy consumption would result in a further Due to its large population and rapid rates of economic growth, 3 80% growth of agriculture-related emissions. China is essential to any efforts to curb GHG emissions, especially from meat consumption, in which it already leads the world. China DEMAND IS RISING FAST consumes 28% of meat and 50% of pork, globally.7,8 Beef consumption is expected to rise 47% by 2030. Yet China is new to By 2050, rising incomes, growing populations and urbanization are mass meat consumption. Average per capita meat consumption has projected to increase meat consumption by 76% and dairy risen six-fold since 1978 to reach 63 kg and could rise another 30 4 consumption by 65%. kg by 2030.9 LIVESTOCK AGRICULTURE DRIVES ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES IT HAS INCENTIVE TO ACT In addition to GHG emissions, livestock agriculture has significant Reducing meat consumption can benefit China from a health, environmental impacts, including deforestation, desertification, resource, climate and geopolitical perspective. Over 50% of the soil degradation and pollution, water pollution, ocean warming and population is suffering from environmental-related illnesses, many acidification, ocean dead zones, and biodiversity loss. Deforestation of which are made worse by higher meat consumption, such as heart and ocean warming further exacerbate climate change, while disease, obesity, cancer and diabetes. China has 20% of the global desertification and soil degradation can reduce agricultural output. population, but 33% of the world’s diabetics.10 Child obesity has quadrupled in a single generation. The rising healthcare costs LIVESTOCK AGRICULTURE IS UNSUSTAINABLE associated with these emerging crises will be significant. The world cannot meet the water and caloric needs of a growing IT HAS POLITICAL AND PUBLIC WILL population if current levels of livestock agriculture are continued. The practice involves 33% of all freshwater use, 30% of all ice-free In May 2016, the Chinese Nutrition Society (CNS) issued its most land, 33% of all calories produced, and 50% of all protein, resources recent ten-year dietary guidelines, which recommend reducing 5,6 which all may be negatively impacted by climate change. meat consumption by over 50%. A 2015 5 To Do Today survey showed that 83% of middle-class urban residents are willing to eat WE CAN ACT NOW vegetarian at least one day each week, with 62% willing to do so at least two days per week. The survey also showed high awareness of Unlike reducing GHG emissions from energy or transportation, the health impacts of meat consumption and moderate awareness which require developing new technologies and building new of the environmental impacts. infrastructure, reducing emissions from livestock agriculture can be immediately addressed at the individual level. Simple and direct AN OPPORTUNITY TO LEAD THE WORLD steps, such as reducing portion size, eliminating food waste, substituting lower-carbon meats (e.g. chicken for beef) and Were the CNS dietary recommendations to be adopted nationally, increasing the number of meatless meals consumed can all help emissions from meat consumption in China would decrease by an lower emissions. amount equal to 1.5% of global emissions or 6% of Chinese emissions. Without a dietary shift, emissions from meat consumption in China LOWER EMISSIONS, BETTER HEALTH would rise over 50% by 2030 to equal more GHG than the 2012 national emissions of every country except China, the United States, The benefits of eating less meat go beyond the climate and India and Russia. EATING FOR TOMORROW LIVESTOCK & GREENHOUSE GAS As the main driver of climate change, powerful than carbon dioxide, gaseous releases of cows and sheep. 4 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are respectively.11 Per unit of protein, beef, pork, and chicken typically associated with fossil fuels used Many people will be surprised to learn that emit 150, 25, and 20 times the GHG of for energy, transportation or industry. burning fossil fuels is not the only major soybeans.15 Because livestock emissions Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, source of GHGs. Emissions from livestock come mainly from large ruminant animals, methane and nitrous oxide trap heat in the are calculated to be at least 14.5% of the the 60 billion chickens each year contribute Earth’s atmosphere, thus raising the global total.12,13 That is greater emissions only 10% of livestock emissions while the temperature of the planet. Though each of than all of global transportation – more 1.4 billion cows contribute 66%.16 In these gases traps heat at different rates, than every car, truck, train, plane and ship addition to being less flatulent than cows they are all calculated in their equivalent on Earth combined. or sheep, chickens convert feed more amount of carbon dioxide, known as the efficiently and use less land, both of which carbon equivalent (CO eq). For example, Animal feed production and the land-use 2 reduce their overall emissions. methane and nitrous oxide, two GHGs change required for it accounts for 30% of emitted during the livestock agriculture all livestock emissions.14 The largest source process, are 25 and 298 times more (39%) is from enteric fermentation–the FIG. 1: GHG EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK Source: Gerber, et. al. “Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock,” 2013 “THE GHG CONTRIBUTIONS FROM 26% MANURE LIVESTOCK ARE 39% GREATER THAN ENTERIC FERMENTATION EVERY CAR, TRUCK, TRAIN, PLANE AND SHIP ON EARTH 6% COMBINED.” PASTURE 5% ENERGY USE 24% FEED CROPS 5 TO DO TODAY 5 A single factory farm with 1,000 head of cattle produces waste equivalent to a city of 164,500 people. 17 In 2011, there were 1.4 billion cows on Earth.18 Photo: Alamy MEAT ALONE CAN BUST THE GHG emissions, we would exceed the amount from transportation, energy or carbon budget as early as the 2030s.21 industry, reducing emissions from CARBON BUDGET agriculture requires little new While many people understand the infrastructure or technology. It could be Governments and experts, including the importance of transitioning away from accomplished immediately with a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate fossil fuels for energy production or worldwide decision to shift away from Change, have determined that the worst transportation, few publicly suggest a meat consumption. For more information impacts of climate change are likely to be similar shift away from meat consumption on mitigation scenarios in agriculture avoided if warming is stopped below two despite its annual contribution of at least 7 please see page 26. degrees Celsius above 19th century levels. 22 GtCo2eq. Compared to reducing the same Reducing emissions from our meat and dairy consumption is important not only because it represents a significant FIG. 2: GHG EMISSIONS PER KG OF MEAT(KGCO2EQ) proportion of total emissions, but also Source: Chatham House “Changing Climate, Changing Diets,” 2015 because of how little GHG we can emit in 80 the future while keeping warming below this limit. As it stands now, the world has 70 already warmed a full one degree Celsius.19 60 56.6 In order to understand how much GHG can be released and still stay below two 50 degrees, the carbon budget was created. In order to have a likely chance (>66%) of 40 staying below two degrees warming, the 31.3 world can emit only 870 gigatonnes of 30 CO2eq (GtCO2eq) between 2009 and 20 20 2100.
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