The Power of Communication
Review of Political Predictions
1 2 REVIEW OF POLITICAL PREDICTIONS
CONTENTS
4 Foreword
6 Contributors 8 Iain Anderson FPRCA: Markets, money, and politics
10 Dr. Matt Carter MPRCA: Modern election campaigns and the challenge to political polling
12 Emma Pointer MPRCA: What we need to learn from the role of social media in the 2015 General Election
14 Dr. Jansev Jemal: Paradigm shifts and expecting the unexpected 16 Marshall Manson MPRCA: Closing the gap starts with recognising that London is the outlier 18 James Endersby and Adam Drummond: Research, statistics, and making political predictions 20 Lionel Zetter FPRCA: Why many of us got things wrong 22 Simon Goldsworthy FPRCA: What went wrong with academic political predictions and what might be done to improve them?
24 Martha Dalton CMPRCA: Populism and political predictions – what’s that coming over the hill?
26 James Turgoose MPRCA: The rise of political uncertainty
PRCA 82 Great Suffolk Street London SE1 0BE
T 020 7233 6026 F 020 7828 4797 www.prca.org.uk
3 Foreword
It is proving hard to make accurate become trapped by our predictions, we should always remember that they political predictions these days. willing them to be accurate, even when are snapshots, not forecasts. Pollsters find it difficult, as do we begin to doubt. When the facts academics, city analysts, newspapers, change, we must be allowed to change Political outcomes are shaped in part by bookmakers, PR consultants, and our mind, recognising that opinion may events, both planned and unexpected. the political parties themselves. be changing right up until the moment One of the planned features of recent The PRCA, representing the PR and people vote. campaigns have been televised debates, communications industry, including yet the format is uncertain until the those who specialise in political There was, as you would expect, much last minute, and we do not know how communications, has been carrying discussion of opinion polls during our they will turn out. In the 2010 General out a review in recent months. We review. The British Polling Council urged Election, Nick Clegg’s breakthrough wanted to know why predicting us to recognise their own extensive work debate performance left other leaders political events is so hard, how we can in the Sturgis Inquiry, following the 2015 saying ‘I agree with Nick’ and propelled be better at doing it, and how best General Election. We are particularly the Liberal Democrats into government. to adapt to an ever more grateful to James Endersby and unpredictable world. Adam Drummond from Opinium, who At the 2015 election, Ed Miliband’s volunteered to help us better understand stumble, both in performance terms The review has itself had to contend with the challenges for opinion pollsters. and in literal terms as he tripped leaving unpredictable events. Just as our work People expect ‘statistical magic’, yet the stage, confirmed some voters was taking shape, as a retrospective on pollsters typically have data from only a doubts, while at that same election, the the election of Donald Trump, the vote few thousand people out of an electorate SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon could not put a for Brexit, and the 2015 General Election, of millions. foot wrong. Other moments where we Theresa May called another election. gain new insights into political leaders This time, all of us involved with making can happen spontaneously, like John political predictions, were determined Prescott’s punch or Gordon Brown’s to get it right. The pollsters fine-tuned encounter with Gillian Duffy. It was, their methodology, the markets hedged, perhaps, Theresa May’s wish to avoid and the political communications this in the 2017 General Election that led professionals were more guarded, but her to appear too distant and unwilling to we all really knew what was going to engage with the voters, in contrast to the happen – a big Tory majority. Wrong populist approach of Jeremy Corbyn. again! Instead of a confidence inspiring vindication that we had learnt how to Other events, outside of the campaigns, make better predictions, we were taught impact too. In the US, the announcement a humbling lesson in how, and why, we by FBI Director, James Comey, days are still getting it wrong. before the 2016 Presidential Election, that an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s In this collection of essays, our use of private email was to be re- contributors consider different opened, had a huge impact. In the UK, dimensions of making political the tragic murder of Jo Cox MP days predictions, from opinion polls to the The ‘margin of error’ is stated for a before the EU referendum and the terror roll of campaigns, social media, and reason, but newspapers tend to present attacks during this year’s UK General economic indicators. Common themes polling figures as being fixed and Election campaign, led to the suspension have emerged: voter behaviour is more accurate, instead of being more of an of normal campaigning. fluid, flawed assumptions are made, data indicator of where things stand at a is to be handled with care, and events given point, in a fluctuating situation. In his contribution, Dr. Matt Carter argues intervene. The most valuable insights of Many things change during an election that the campaigns have a dramatic all are those which may help us in the or referendum campaign so it is not impact on election or referendum future. We should recognise groupthink, surprising that in all recent elections outcomes. From the brilliance of Saatchi whether that is on social media or in the and referendums, the polls that most and Saatchi’s positioning of Margaret Westminster bubble. We should have a accurately predict political outcomes are Thatcher in the UK in the 1980s, to the healthy scepticism of certainty and of those taken closest to the time people extraordinary stadium filling excitement conventional wisdom. We should not cast their ballots. When it comes to polls, of Barack Obama’s win in the US in
4 2008, there are many examples of other social media platforms have choices, Leave vs Remain, Labour vs effective campaigns. We also know increased engagement amongst some Conservative, and more emphasis on that parties and campaign groups groups of voters. The role of social a linear analysis of political risk. What sometimes get their messages, policies, media is considered by Emma Pointer, use is it to correctly forecast Brexit for and targeting spectacularly wrong. who writes on the way it can reinforce example, without looking ahead to the The relentlessly negative messages of rather than challenge our existing views. broad spectrum of possible forms that the Stronger In campaign during the Her conclusion is that social media Brexit may take – think ‘hard’ or ‘soft’, referendum were a turn off for voters. can be a poor barometer of voting to use the vernacular. The same is true The Conservative manifesto launch in intention unless we learn how to listen for this year’s General Election, where the 2017 General Election, announcing in better and understand how different many correctly predicted there would unpopular policies, particularly on demographics use different channels. be a Conservative government, but care funding, was a disaster. The failed to consider the huge implications Conservative Party also made serious Marshall Manson believes that many of a hung parliament, loss of authority targeting errors, setting their sights of us in the PR and communications for the Prime Minister, inability to take on traditionally safe Labour seats like world live and work in a London bubble, forward manifesto promises, and Dennis Skinner MP’s Bolsover only to with a wide chasm of understanding impact on Brexit negotiations. These find on election day that traditionally safe between the establishment and anti- potential outcomes were all possible Conservative seats like Canterbury and establishment. Academic Simon and could have been plotted, modelled, Kensington were in jeopardy. Goldsworthy challenges his own and considered in boardrooms and profession not to retreat into a world newsrooms. Changing political behaviour may of their own, in which the contribution make the impact of events and the academia makes to political predictions Thank you to all those who have effectiveness of campaigns greater is hindered by being out of sympathy contributed to our review through our factors in shaping political outcomes with large swathes of voters. Helpful discussions earlier in the year, and this than in times past if, as Dr. Jansev suggestions on how to ‘burst the bubble’ pamphlet. A necessary and appropriate Jemal argues, voters are now less are offered by Lionel Zetter, who urges humility has been applied to considering tribal. Fewer voters express strong us to have an open door and an open how we can all be better at political levels of identification with a political mind, including listening to people who predictions. A few voices critical of this party than they once did and patterns hold unfashionable or contrary views. review, who claimed to have correctly of voter behaviour are often surprising. predicted Trump’s win and Brexit, did not This has been particularly true of voter want to share in our humility at the outset turnout, where polling models and many of this project, but the recent General commentators have underestimated Election taught them a sharp lesson likely voter turnout amongst some in how easy it is to get political groups. In the last US presidential predictions wrong. election, groups favourable to Donald Trump turned out in higher numbers I hope that our review provides some than expected in some states, while in useful explanation of what has gone the UK’s EU referendum, many first time before, and even more importantly, will voters turned out to support Brexit. help with what comes next. Making political predictions is not going to get In the recent UK General Election, any easier, but by taking account of more the turnout of young people in greater sources, being aware of the limitations numbers than at previous elections was of data, listening to different voices, clearly a significant benefit to Jeremy and offering a broader and less binary Corbyn’s Labour Party, particularly in James Turgoose and Iain Anderson perspective on what the future holds, we university towns and cities. In her essay both reflect on the lessons from recent should be able to see the future more clearly. on populism, Martha Dalton sees the elections for those of us who are called overall rise in turnout as good news but on to give advice on political futures. Andy Sawford MPRCA chaired the cautions that non-voters are erratic. This One theme rises above all others, PRCA Review of Political Predictions. is a group who have walked away from that we should place less emphasis Andy is a member of the Board of politics before and may do so again. on simplistic political predictions the PRCA and Managing Partner of There is no doubt that Facebook and about what may appear to be binary Connect Communications.
5 Contributors
Andy Sawford MPRCA Iain Anderson FPRCA Foreword Markets, money, and politics
Dr. Matt Carter MPRCA Emma Pointer MPRCA Modern election campaigns and the What we need to learn from the challenge to political polling role of social media in the 2015 General Election
Dr. Jansev Jemal Marshall Manson MPRCA Paradigm shifts and expecting Closing the gap starts with recognising the unexpected that London is the outlier
6 James Endersby Adam Drummond Research, statistics, and making Research, statistics, and making political predictions political predictions
Lionel Zetter FPRCA Simon Goldsworthy FPRCA Why many of us got things wrong What went wrong with academic political predictions and what might be done to improve them?
Martha Dalton CMPRCA James Turgoose MPRCA Populism and political predictions – The rise of political uncertainty what’s that coming over the hill?
7 Iain Anderson FPRCA Markets, money, and politics
Markets and politics. They are much sharper focus. But we saw the are locked or opened by the French two increasingly uncomfortable same trends during Indyref and Brexit. electoral system. Not an electoral college bedfellows. True, there is usually an Huge amounts of Sterling and Gilts of states – not a ‘Borgen’-style fudge – axiomatic link between political risk were traded before, during (overnight but in the end a binary final round choice and markets, but finance seems to on polling day), and since. It led one where the first to 50.1% takes the prize. be as poor as pollsters these days in business commentator to refer to the So that French bond investor was right to deciphering the trends. Pound as the real Opposition to HM be trading hard right in the first round of Opposition. He had a point… the Presidential poll. Did you keep an eye on French bond yields before the people of France Maybe it is just Western markets trying voted earlier this year? Of course you to interpret Western politics that’s the did. Isn’t everyone these days? No one problem these days. In recent times
wanted to get caught out, YET they did. emerging markets seem to have been Missing the Brexit and Trump zeitgeist, In fact there is a more able to interpret political risk than global investors were determined not to established Western ones. Emerging
miss out again. And they were asking fundamental democracies seem to be better able the question daily - what’s happening “ to keep things calmer than long in politics? Fortunately for them – it question on the “ standing ones. appears that French voters and French pollsters are in better alignment than in table – is political The day the 2017 UK General Election many other Western democracies. was called, I was in Beijing. Wrong risk analysis actually place – very wrong time. My attempts at During the French campaign, it was possible anymore? getting away from UK politics were put reported around €16 billion of French on hold. But it did make me think about bonds were being traded each day. our techniques as a sector. That’s double the usual amount and the volumes were similar to levels last The ‘Mao-ology’ that used to be applied seen five years ago in the midst of the Let’s keep going with the French analysis to Chinese politics and business is a Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. And – it seems a little easier to do. Le Pen – whole lot easier to discern these days. the trades were ‘international’ – that’s who in the end was crushed by Macron, While business spends ages trying to US investors in particular - rather than defied traditional analysis. Anti-EU, pro- work out WHO is most important in the French domestic investors – moving the Putin, anti-globalisation, pro-France first, Chinese state machine on every issue– money. Perhaps Wall Street’s proximity and anti-Islamisation. The script was the plain fact is that the WHAT and to Trump Tower places the art of the the same as Trump. But France was not WHEN of political life there has become politically possible these days into America. The keys to the Elysee Palace a lot easier to discern.
8 As you probably gather, I spend most Addressing the many businesses who of Brexit scenarios once again seemed of my time trying to decode politics for had been commissioning private polling endless. markets. You used to be able to talk in during the referendum, he told them ‘absolutes’. There is no sense of that to stop the clock on that work. ‘They The key thing for any business is to now. A polling number here or there no are going to get it wrong’ he declared. provide tools to be able to plan ahead. longer translates into a direct political Of course, he was right. Supremely Highly regulated businesses also have effect. That means there is a need to confident at 22:00 on 23rd June, 2016, another dimension to consider – and make a real change in the calculation markets traded Sterling to relative highs that’s the likelihood that your regulator of political risk, but there are several only for it to plummet rapidly after will be asking tough questions about questions around how to do it. Asian investors saw what happened in your risk plan around political events – Sunderland around 01:00! that’s your Plan A stress tested to death After Brexit and – before that - also after alongside your Plan B and Plan C, etc. if the 2015 General Election - the polling And the same phenomenon has been things don’t work out. So – increasingly industry went into a kind of meltdown achieved with Trump and UK General the job is to help markets get ahead of with practitioners desperately seeking Election 2017. To some extent, markets those political risks. answers for what went wrong. With the are ‘causal’ themselves. When I awoke most modern of weighted analytical voter on referendum day to news that Remain On that range of risks, what’s the safest intention tools, most of them was a certainty, I shuddered. There advice? Strike that – what’s the best spectacularly misfired. Many long is nothing worse than markets (‘fat advice. Unfortunately, there is no doubt months have been spent trying to cats’ to many voters) taking their votes it is to prepare for the worst possible decode what happened. for granted. The day before America political or related economic outcome. voted, the same thing happened. Voters And watching firms and markets prepare Public affairs practitioners followed the across the US turned on their breakfast for that leads me to the conclusion that polling just like markets. And many of televisions to be told the market had business increasingly operates well their firm predictions fell flat. In fact, the already ‘priced in’ a Hillary win. Little ahead of the politics. It has learned commentariat continues to get this so people - big vote. the lessons. wrong so often. And continue to do so even now. In fact there is a fundamental question ‘No surprises’ is an oft repeated business on the table – is political risk analysis mantra. It’s usually a very good reason to Now all political risk practitioners can do actually possible anymore? For the past have good political counsel around the is to talk in terms of the ‘risk spectrum’ decade, many ‘lobbyists’ have eschewed table. In an environment where a polling in front of markets without being able that term and have preferred to call data point or a political decision does not to pinpoint directly what might firmly themselves ‘political analysts’, a term create a linear political effect, there has happen. This is a huge change for us all. which has gained real traction in the US never been a more interesting time to do And so the techniques used to decode as a way of making the sector sound this job. must now change. more ‘quant’ than ‘qual’. The facts are constantly changing and so Before the Brexit referendum, we invited But the reality is we now need a variety must we. polling doyen Professor John Curtice to of approaches and tools. In the aftermath come and talk to an audience filled with of the election, my team developed the Iain Anderson FPRCA is the Co- people who make a direct ‘trade’ on Brexometer – a risk spectrum around Founder and Executive Chairman political risk. Laying out the ‘likelihood’ of the biggest issue for markets and UK of Cicero Group, a Stonewall a Remain win – he was at pains to point business on the horizon. A 21:59 on 8th Ambassador, and one of the Financial
out that the result ‘might’ just go the June, 2017, it appeared there was no Times / OUTstanding Global other way. But he went further than that… spectrum to plot. By 22.01, the nature 100 Executives.
Now all political risk practitioners can do is to talk in terms of the ‘risk spectrum’ “ in front of markets without being able to pinpoint directly what might “firmly happen. 9 Dr. Matt Carter MPRCA Modern election campaigns and the challenge to political polling
In the endless debate about the margin of victory. The difference between The second Tory campaign goal was accuracy of election opinion polls, the two is explained by a catastrophic to use Theresa May’s leadership one thing consistently seems to be Conservative national campaign that to win votes beyond the traditional overlooked: the role of the election failed on almost all of its key objectives. Conservative areas. According to campaign itself. YouGov, in the week May called the Their first objective was to frame the election she had a lead over Corbyn Critics are quick to point out when final election. I was always taught in Labour as ‘best Prime Minister’ of 39 points. election results don’t perfectly match the HQ that the party that can frame the However, the campaign revealed a major opinion poll estimates, without taking election would control the campaign. The flaw in the Conservative’s strategy. They into account the role of the campaign Conservatives wanted the election to had billed Theresa May as the next itself in changing voter behaviour. What’s be about who is best to deliver a ‘good Margaret Thatcher: tough, strong, and more, voters are increasingly fluid in Brexit’, best to lead the negotiations decisive. Yet the campaign revealed this their approach to parties and turnout, with Brussels, and best to stand up image to be inauthentic. May was shown meaning an even greater likelihood of for Britain. This was a frame that they consistently to be cautious, uncertain, change in opinion before polling day. felt would play to their strengths and and uncomfortable with the public. In Labour’s weaknesses. contrast, Jeremy Corbyn came across So can recent elections in the US and as true to himself, a compassionate man UK tell us anything about the impact that who can engage with people as a human campaigns have and the challenges they being. provide to pollsters? A quick analysis suggests they can and indeed these By 8th June, 2017, there were more elections may help point to some better questions remaining about Theresa ways for polling firms and the media to May’s leadership than anyone else’s, and approach political campaigns. she ended the campaign with the same ‘best Prime Minister’ numbers In early May, a few days after Theresa as Corbyn. May called her surprise General Election, James Kirkup wrote a confessional piece Unfortunately for Theresa May, the The third was in their targeting strategy. for The Spectator’s Coffee House blog Conservatives consistently failed to The Conservatives believed they could entitled: ‘What journalists know, but control the theme of the campaign. This win seats in traditional Labour areas with can never admit: election campaigns was an unusual campaign, with two high levels of Brexit support. don’t matter’. Kirkup’s point was that major terrorist attacks in the middle of the events on the campaign trail rarely the election which stopped campaigning May spent many days on the campaign make any difference. ‘Most of the people and forced a different agenda into the trail visiting seats Labour had traditionally covering it know that the national-level debate. considered to be safe but which had messaging they focus on makes no decisively voted to leave the EU in 2016. material difference to the outcome.’ The Conservatives’ failure to frame the This meant neglecting seats that were election can’t be blamed solely on these considered to be ‘marginal’. In fact, the 2017 election campaign events. The robotic repetition of the seemed to matter quite a lot. ‘strong and stable’ message failed to The Conservatives targeting strategy ignite public interest, the low profile of added to their undoing, with them This election provides a valuable case their leading figures regularly gave the gaining small swings in some traditional study in how elections can shift opinion news agenda to Labour, and a disastrous Labour areas but not sufficient to win dramatically, something that is manifesto launch created plenty of the seats. At the same time, they lost a reassuring for campaign strategists like diversions away from their main theme. series of marginal seats to Labour by tiny me that spend hours trying to build numbers of votes, including Kensington campaigns that change the way people By the end of the campaign, Brexit was (by 20 votes), Crewe and Nantwich (48 vote. It also provides some important low down on the list of issues people votes), and Keighley (249 votes). lessons for political pollsters. said they voted on. Sky Data said the The only area where the Conservatives biggest issue was health (23%), followed made more spectacular gains was in The election was called with the by the economy (20%), immigration Scotland, but this was more about an Conservatives almost 20 points ahead (15%), security and terrorism (14%), anti-SNP than an anti-EU vote. of Labour in the opinion polls. The actual and Britain’s relationship with the result gave the Tories only a two point EU (14%). Labour, in contrast, ran an effective
10 local get out the vote (GOTV) campaign to 1 of these voters broke for Trump. success. However, they also need to which turned out supporters in the Democratic pollsters have admitted their recognise the pace of social and political seats that mattered most. It’s too early algorithms failed to anticipate the extent change is such that their model is likely to see data on the effectiveness of the that independent voters would turn to to be outdated before the time of the ground campaign, but we know from Trump. Moreover, the final days of the next election. There’s room for a bit previous studies that effective voter campaign contained revelations which more modesty in the industry about the engagement campaigns can have a moved voter opinion late on in a way that challenges of getting this right Dr. Matt Carter MPRCA dramatic impact on actual turnout on was almost impossible for the pollsters every time. the day. For example, academics at the to predict. 11 days before the election, Modern election campaigns and LSE used British Election Studies data James Comey sent a letter to Congress Finally, it’s time to rethink the cosy to assess the impact of door-to-door which implied the investigation into relationship between polling companies contact on turnout amongst those who Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email and the media. In April 2015, on the the challenge to political polling were ‘leaning’ to Labour in the 2010 server was to be reopened. basis of a series of small shifts in the election. Those who were contacted by polls, The Guardian splashed across its Labour at home were 21% more likely US polling expert Nate Silver wrote that front page: ‘The day the polls turned’. to have actually gone and voted Labour this event was enough to swing the result The polls were supposedly evidence of a than those who received no contact at for Trump: ‘At a minimum, its impact big shift towards Ed Miliband and Labour home – clear evidence of the power of might have been only a percentage in the 2015 election. Unfortunately, the the ground campaign to shift opinion. point or so. Still, because Clinton lost headline was misleading, and the big Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin swing to Labour didn’t exist. In 2017, the Conservatives’ campaign by less than 1%, the letter was probably was a failure, and the results showed enough to change the outcome of the You can blame the pollsters in 2015 the size of the personal catastrophe Electoral College’. for overstating Labour’s lead in their for Theresa May: a victory very heavily samples, but some responsibility needs disguised as a defeat; the Conservatives to rest with the pollsters who do media the largest party but losing their majority; surveys and the journalists themselves May returned to office but not to power. for sensationalising small movements
It also showed the challenge facing within data, often falling with the margin pollsters trying to analyse how people of error. In complex elections, covering
will vote in elections. There’s room for a bit 650 separate electoral fights, a single more modesty in the 1,000 person survey is a very poor Almost a quarter of Labour’s voters “ “ means of anticipating the overall result decided they would support the party in industry about the and pretending otherwise does neither the final week of the election, with 12% the media nor the polling industry any deciding on election day itself. challenges of getting favours. I’m all for public polling in Nearly all pollsters in 2017 picked up the elections, but it would be better to have shift in opinion during the election, albeit this right every time. a smaller number of bigger surveys, with not all anticipated the race to be so close more effort put into them being drawn in the end. With campaigns having such from a sample that reflects the complex a dramatic impact and with voters so diversity of opinion in each country. It fluid in their support, ‘predicting’ voter would also be better if the results were behaviour is a less than perfect science. reported both accurately and in more Where do these races hushed tones. The US election in 2016 was also leave political polling? high on drama and with the result that This is because campaigns do make a surprised the world. Some of this was First, there is undoubtedly still room for difference. Voters are becoming more caused by pollsters failing to foresee improvement in the methodologies and undecided and liable to change their Trump’s victory. US pollster Frank Luntz sampling used by political pollsters. mind, at the same time that campaign wasn’t alone in calling the election for Despite the fact that many pollsters techniques are becoming more Hillary very early on. Before midnight called the races close to the margin sophisticated and able to connect in on election night, he tweeted: ‘Hillary of error and identified the key trends a more targeted way with different Clinton will be the next President of in the campaign, there still needs to voter groups. the United States.’ By 06:00, he had be a redoubling of effort on the part of admitted he called it wrong. Afterwards, the polling industry to build sampling Frankly, there’s no opinion poll US pollsters began a period of soul- methodologies that truly capture the methodology that can anticipate all searching, looking at how their estimates complexity of voter opinion. eventualities. A little more humbleness by could have been inaccurate. Some pollsters in reflecting polling’s limitations highlighted the challenge of reaching Second, it would be great if political and a bit more rigour in the media about certain demographics in their samples. It pollsters reflected a little more humbly on what the data means would serve us seems a large number of white, working- their predictive powers. Lord Ashcroft, all well. class voters were underrepresented in who has transformed UK polling by their surveys, and a big proportion of conducting large scale surveys in the Dr. Matt Carter MPRCA is the Founder these voted for Trump. public domain, always repeats the and Managing Director of Message mantra: ‘a poll is a snapshot, not a House, former Chief Executive, UK, of However, just as in the UK, it was also prediction’. Others would do well to Burson-Marsteller, former Chairman the campaign that shifted opinion and remember this. There are now ever more and Managing Director of Penn made it much more difficult to predict. sophisticated polling models being built Schoen Berland, and was General In the 2012 Obama vs Romney race, to anticipate election results, and at Secretary of the Labour Party. He has only 4% of voters said they were still each election, one firm is able to proudly a doctorate in Politics. undecided on election day. In 2016, declare their model the winner. I think this number had risen to 14%, and 2 we should applaud not begrudge each
11 Emma Pointer MPRCA What we need to learn from the role of social media in the 2015 General Election
For businesses and consultancies does this affect our assessment of the waned completely, particularly during interested in understanding the reach of parties’ respective campaigns? election periods. nuances of elections, the role Understanding different types of media that different media channels and and their role in influencing voters is For many voters, traditional media still engagement techniques play in complicated and there are some plays a significant role in driving aware- driving voter behaviour is a source interrelated factors which drive voter ness and shaping their attitudes, and of persistent fascination. In recent behaviour; it’s unlikely that any analysis ultimate voting intention. Various polls years, this fascination has focused could ever isolate one individual factor. have shown that television still leads as increasingly on social media, with However, understanding the role social the medium most likely to grab voters’ each election or referendum bringing media played in the 2015 General Elec- attention and influence their voting more claims about the role it plays in tion - how it affected voter attitudes and decision, with radio and newspapers shaping voter intention. engagement - might help our close behind. understanding of industry perceptions The 2015 General Election was no and predictions of the election. Where does social media fit in this equa- different, with many commentators tion then? As the polls show, in 2015 it
predicting that it would be the UK’s first did play a more significant role than in social media election. In light of the previous elections, but it was still only widespread failure across the political seen as likely to grab the attention of a
and communications sector to predict fifth of voters. However, the picture is the outcome of some recent election While users may think they more nuanced than these figures initially results, what can we learn from voter suggest. Regarding influence, 38% of engagement with social media? And are being presented with a “ voters thought the information they had specifically, relating to the 2015 General wide variety of viewpoints, received through social media would Election, what role did it play? “ influence their voting decision. This the reality is that they are indicates that social media does play a There are two aspects to any role in shaping attitudes and opinions, consideration of the role of social media actually being exposed to once engagement has been achieved. during an election campaign. First, how an often highly narrow set This compared to the influence of do voters use it and therefore how useful doorstep canvassing (at 33%) suggests is it as a barometer of public sentiment? of views. that some may have underestimated Specifically, how do conversations and the impact of social media campaigns . activity taking place on social media during the 2015 General Election, as is enhance our understanding of voting explored below. intentions? Role of social media How voters use social Secondly, how are political parties using The declining role of television and the social media to enhance their campaign media print media is frequently part of this and reach target voters? How successful discussion. And, while it is true that are they at achieving this and to what Much has been written about the way newspaper circulation figures have been extent does the approach of political consumers and voters use social media falling steadily for a number of years parties in their online campaign reinforce and its growing popularity. However, the now, and television channels are facing or influence the way voters use social analysis shows that it is not growing in increasing competition from online video media? Additionally, if highly targeted popularity uniformly, with a significant platform streaming services (a trend content is being directed at voters online discrepancy in the activity of different particularly prevalent with young people), (where only those targeted can see it), political groups. The concept of ‘shy the influence of traditional media has not Tories’ (now widely acknowledged and
12 accounted for in polling methods since broadcasting party messages rather than (either through choice or algorithms) the 1992 election) may also be pres- creating dialogue, as well as failing to meant that its role was easily overlooked. ent online with a study by Global Web recognise that social media is a distinct For many, it often served to reinforce Index finding that supporters of Labour channel from more traditional forms of their existing viewpoint both in terms of (particularly Labour’s left), the SNP media and therefore requires a different political party support and analysis of (nicknamed ‘Cybernats’), and the Green sort of message. which direction the election was heading. Party were far more active. Not only are left-wing supporters more active on so- This, it has been suggested, created cial media, but they were also present in the effect of preaching to the converted Recommendations larger numbers than Conservative voters. meaning that a high level of social media 1. No media, channel, or engagement This may have presented an image of spend may not have translated into new technique can be assessed in isolation stronger support for the left-wing during votes. However, the Conservatives did but should be viewed as part of the the campaign. In reality, the online con- have a significantly higher volume of wider picture of engagement during a versation was more likely to be heavily spending than Labour, despite using campaign – a snapshot of public skewed than representative of the reality similar techniques online. These adverts opinion at a given time, rather than a on the ground. were often highly targeted, focused on definite indicator of results. swing voters in marginal seats. However, This may have given political the nature of online targeting means 2. Those making political predictions commentators and communications that these adverts aren’t always visible should be aware of the effect of professionals (also a group that is highly to wider audiences, and particularly the ‘echo chamber’ or ‘filter bubbles’, likely to be active on social media) a the media, to scrutinise either content particularly in their network, and false picture of the strength of support or spend. This means the scale of the understand that this may present for Labour, which served to reinforce Conservatives’ operation went unnoticed them with a distorted view of political analysis of the polling picture that was until their spend was declared to the support and engagement. emerging. This suggests that social Electoral Commission. Subsequent media was a poor barometer of analysis has suggested that this 3. Understanding how different voting intention. approach was a determining factor in demographics of voters use social the Conservatives’ success but at the media and how present they are Other evidence suggests that algorithms time this was apparent to other parties across different channels is key to behind different social media platforms or political commentators, adding to the considering how useful a barometer may create ‘filter bubbles’ which mean element of surprise when the result was social media is during an election users constantly see content that is revealed. campaign. similar to that which they have already seen or interacted with, creating a Conclusion 4. The way we use social media (and our constantly reinforcing environment. understanding of the way we use Furthermore, back in 2015, awareness The Conservatives were quicker to social media) continues to evolve – of the way platforms operated was low, recognise the power of social media any analysis of social media should many users thought they saw content to engage voters. In particular, they factor this. from their friends or followers organically focused on Facebook to target marginal when in fact that content had been seats outside of London meaning 5. When assessing the impact of online carefully selected. this was less likely to be seen by content, it is important to remember
journalists, communications, and political that not all content has the same The growing popularity of user-generated professionals. This, coupled with the influence on voter engagement or content (such a gifs or memes) may changing nature of voter behaviour sentiment – organic content is likely have helped this illusion, as well as the online with the growth in content shared to be far more effective at driving voter increasing ‘white-labelling’ of media organically, means it is probably fair to behaviour than targeted adverts. content shared on platforms (whereby conclude that social media did play a users do not leave the platform to view substantial role in this election. However, Emma Pointer MPRCA is an Account content, which may be presented in a the nature of social media and the way Director at Weber Shandwick and way that does not make it clear which users are likely to be surrounded by other Vice-chairman of the PRCA Public outlet it is from). While users may think users or content with similar view points Affairs and Lobbying Group. they are being presented with a wide variety of viewpoints, the reality is that “ they are actually being exposed to an often highly narrow set of views. The discrepancy between this perception and the reality may have played a large part Not only are left-wing supporters in delivering the unexpected outcome of the election, both in terms of influencing more active on social media, but voter intentions, and in overstating the support for particular parties or groups. they were also present in larger
How parties use social numbers than Conservative media voters.
Some have argued that while political parties did make tentative attempts to engage with voters via social media channels, their attempts lacked imag- ination and tended to be focused on
“ 13 ‘Forecast late, forecast often’. This Once upon a time, predicting how The seminal text, The American Voter, was a quote (albeit in jest) from my someone would vote was easy. In Britain, presented a model of voting behaviour electoral behaviour lecturer; the social class was a clear predictor of which became known as ‘the funnel suggestion being that if you’re going voting behaviour, with the working class of causality’. As with any model, it is a to get into the business of making traditionally backing Labour and the simplification of the complexity of real political predictions leave it as close middle and upper classes supporting the life. Nevertheless, it is helpful for thinking to election day as possible and the Conservative Party. about all the possible factors that might more predictions you make, the more influence a voter when deciding how likely it is you’re going to get one that’s Albeit not a perfect predictor (one-third to cast their vote. On the far left, at the in the right ball-park. Unfortunately, of the working class consistently voted mouth of the funnel, we have influences most political pundits can’t get away for the Conservatives) it was strong such as socio-demographics, for with leaving it until the last minute, enough to build a reliable model of vote example, age, gender, and ethnicity. We and you’re not going to be taken very choice. Coupled with strong levels of also have social factors, for example, seriously if you take a scatter gun party identification, an attachment to class and education. As we move approach to your predictions. Politics a political party (not the same as the through the funnel, we have values over the last couple of years seems to actual vote choice itself), which often ran and the groups that we may encounter have become very difficult to predict through generations of families, it was as part of our social circles. All these with several events not only surprising much easier to predict how someone things may lead the voter to form an ‘the pundits’ but also catching key would vote than it is today. At present, attachment to a political party. As we political players off-guard. social class is a far muddier concept get closer to the vote decision, opinions than it once was and, certainly judging about specific issues or candidates This has caused many to ask why the by the last election, if any socio- could come into play. Around the outside pollsters have got it wrong (again…), demographic feature have become a of the funnel, we have external factors, with the House of Lords the latest to big predictor of vote choice it’s age and such as campaigning by parties, the announce an inquiry into polling, and education. Voters are far more discerning media, family, and friends as well as organisations like the PRCA asking the about how they will vote, with fewer more general political and/or economic question: how does this affect our work expressing strong levels of identification conditions. and the way in which we advise our with a political party than they once did. clients? Many political commentators Although the funnel of causality was have, understandably, become wary of developed decades ago, it can help predicting anything, myself included. us visualise what happened during the
A PhD in voting behaviour, nearly ten recent General Election. If we assume the years working in research and opinion The seminal text, The left-hand side of the funnel represents the early to mid-part of the campaign,
polling and 20 years’ experience of being American Voter, presented actively involved in campaigning have the right-hand side, from campaign not left me immune from the dangers a model of voting behaviour activity and the influence of friends and of trying to predict what might happen “ “ family, represents the second half of which became known as the campaign when things started to in the topsy-turvy world of politics that ‘the funnel of causality’. we are now living through. In this piece, change. Theresa May called the election I’m going to address the problem of As with any model, it is when the polls were looking strong for predicting political behaviour by looking a simplification of the the relatively new Prime Minister and her own personal ratings very favourable at the question of what we need to do to complexity of real life. understand political behaviour. indeed, particularly in comparison to the ratings of the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn.
14 Dr. Jansev Jemal Paradigm shifts and expecting the unexpected
May’s team were so confident that a My research was driven by the in the academic arena. YouGov found presidential campaign was developed desireto understand the effects of themselves on the defensive when that put her at the heart of the campaign. local campaigning by political parties, the model was launched forecasting a Some bold decisions were taken that particularly in the context of other types hung parliament. This was very much arguably proved fatal and contributed of communication channels such as out of line with what other pollsters to the reversal of fortune for May. A big television, newspapers, and literature. were suggesting. YouGov’s model, with one was the party manifesto. Devised But trying to isolate the effects of each its overall forecast and prediction for with her closest advisers and a handful one is a real challenge, exacerbated individual seats, were vindicated on the of ministers, it contained some brave by the fact that this doesn’t take into night of the election. It will be interesting proposals that would help the party account other types of communications to see if other pollsters will feel the need in its efforts to bring down the deficit such as family and friends. If I were to employ more advanced statistical but would be to the detriment of older repeating the research today, it would techniques in order to be able to people, a group whose support that the have to take into account social media. compete with the move in this direction. party had always been able to rely on. At this point, we also need to remember What became known as the dementia that it is political opinion polls, not The world of politics is fascinating. tax was very quick to resonate with academic research that we look to for an It has usually been the case that the voters and, I know anecdotally, was cited idea of the election result and the two are best predictor of the future is the past. as a possible reason why traditional different in some key respects. But our ability to forecast what is Conservative voters might for the first happening in the world of politics has time move away from the party. On Whereas an academic might build a been made more difficult by the rapid reflection, another mistake was perhaps model of voting behaviour to predict pace of change we have seen in many not showing up for the leaders debate, how someone will vote, an opinion poll quarters, whether we are talking about instead sending Amber Rudd, who is a snapshot of opinion at a particular young people in Britain being inspired to had only recently lost her father. May’s point in time. They are not designed register and vote in numbers not seen decline mirrored the rise of Jeremy to predict the outcome of an election, before, a complete novice entering the Corbyn, who is stronger out on the though people often use opinion polls to US presidential race, or the birth and campaign trail rather than in the House do just that. Another key way in which rise of a new political party in France of Commons. opinion polls are different from academic sweeping away the establishment research is that the former will be to take the French presidency. So, the funnel of causality helps to published on a regular basis throughout Established norms are being ripped visualise all the different factors that the campaign. During the referendum up. For the commentators who seek impact on the vote. On the face of it, the on Scottish independence, YouGov to understand that change and try to model appears to be a good model of published a poll showing that the vote bravely pre-empt what might happen voting behaviour. If we can build a good for independence was moving ahead of next perhaps the best advice may be to model, why are we still, on occasions, staying in the union. keep an open mind, try to see where the getting it so wrong? Firstly, measurement paradigmatic shifts may be coming from is not easy. The model implies the need This may well have galvanised the and expect the unexpected. to take into account a lot of different campaign for remaining in the union and factors. Some of these may be more or ultimately influenced the outcome of the Dr. Jansev Jemal is the Research less important than others and different election, though this is very difficult to Manager of ComRes and a Labour analysts will assign varying levels of prove. Interestingly, the same pollster – councillor in Enfield. She has a significance to each one. Furthermore, YouGov – has developed a methodology doctorate in Political Science. isolating the impact of any one factor is involving the use of statistical modelling very difficult. more akin to that we would normally use
15 Marshall Manson MPRCA Closing the gap starts with recognising that London is the outlier
The last 18 months have been a roller politicians, business leaders, and around the consensus. coaster for the UK. Brexit. Article 50. national newspapers than people who The High Court. The snap election. The live in London. Sitting in our ivory towers And so the narrative emerges: a Tory landslide that wasn’t. USA Top Trumps. on the banks of the Thames, we try landslide is on the cards! And influences And countless other moments, large to develop ideas that will connect our election coverage directly and subtly and small, that would have seemed clients and organisations with audiences throughout the campaign. It’s wrong. unthinkable a few years ago. The only across Britain. Sometimes we have real But it shapes strategic decision-making; certainty is uncertainty. And political successes. At our best, we make valua- where parties commit resources; how leaders seem to be struggling more ble contributions to the wider dialogue, the news covers the campaign; and it than anyone to get to grips with challenge thinking, and help society all amounts to a massive disservice to the implications. progress. the British public – most of whom live beyond the M25. The chasm between the establishment But too often, our work is based on and anti-establishment arguably hasn’t insights that are too Shoreditch and too To be clear, data is a potent, valuable been this wide since the French Rev- rooted in a worldview that’s either unfa- force, and communications and public olution. And with every passing day, it miliar or uncomfortable to people beyond affairs professionals have been too slow only seems to grow. This yawning gap the M25. At its worst, the attitudes to bring data into our day to day work. in British society is hugely problematic reflected in our work can be superior, As a result, our strategies are vulnerable for communications and public affairs preachy, and hopelessly disconnected to the whims of anecdote, suspicion, experts based in London. And more than from real life. and intuition. The results we report wind a year after the Brexit result shocked up woolly, opinionated, and hopeful. But London - we still have a lot to learn. for data to be effective, it must be met in equal measures by common sense It starts here. We need to recognise that and experience. Blind faith in numbers we live and work in a bubble and that our is a recipe for embracing error and perceptions are shaped and informed by discovering only dead ends. people living and working in the same bubble. As a result, our instincts about Allen Jonathan and Amie Parnes explore Britain can be wildly miscalibrated, and this at length in Shattered, their book that means our judgement must be treat- chronicling Hillary Clinton’s losing ed as suspect. Put another way, there’s campaign for President. They recount the world beyond the M25, and it doesn’t the constant push and pull between look the way we think it does. London is Clinton’s young disciples of data and her the outlier. old hands who couldn’t shake the feeling that something wasn’t right. The conflict Consider these points between the camps persisted through the whole campaign until the pigeons from an Ogilvy PR Consider the recent General Election. In came home to roost on election night. the old days, the ‘wisdom’ of the lobby But to conclude that Clinton lost because survey: was bad enough. Groupthink among her data team got it wrong is to miss the • 61% of non-Londoners do not believe political journalists, ex-MPs, and other far more important learning: data works, that people who live in London share hangers-on helped shape narratives but it needs to be paired with a wide their values. that were occasionally misleading, but range of observations and routinely navel-gazing – relevant only to an open mind. • 54% say that Londoners don’t have residents of the Westminster Village. the same view of what it means to be Twitter has made that echo chamber Living in any bubble – whether it’s British as they do. both larger and more efficient, as the London, Paris, New York, or the one that lobby conversation plays on regardless the Facebook algorithm created for us • 47% believe that people in London do of whether the participants are physi- – guarantees confirmation bias, drives not want what’s best for Britain’s future. cally present or not. Meanwhile, break- us towards more extreme views, and throughs in behavioural science have creates gaps between us and the rest of • And an amazing 86% of non-Londoners taught us to question our observations. society that can be hard to overcome. said that London gets too much of So the political class ignores its obser- To truly connect with Britain, we need the pie. vations from the streets, the doors, the more thinking from Bristol and Belfast, diners, and the barbershops in favour Manchester and Macclesfield, Swansea of hard data. But the data is polluted Non-Londoners are also significantly and Sheffield, and Perth and Plymouth. by groupthink too, as pollsters gather more distrustful of Westminster In practice, that means putting more
16 miles on our cars and fewer on our a lot to learn from others. Practicing a keyboards. We need to get out of the little less certitude will make us more office and out of London, and spend less respectful of varying points of view. It time with people like ourselves, and more also means listening and engaging on time with people who aren’t like us at all. equal footing, rather than dismissing perspectives that we think are wrong or Last November, we started our Ogilvy even backwards. A more measured give- On the Road programme, which requires and-take also increases the opportunity every member of our team to spend a full to find common ground and, ultimately, day somewhere beyond the M25, and be persuasive. Practicing humility means return with learnings and souvenirs to more positive behaviour in debates and share with their colleagues and conversations. That means less name our clients. calling and fewer blithe applications of pejorative labels. The results have been exciting. The better breadth of inputs is yielding more As leaders in communications, we have a compelling insights, which are driving responsibility to raise the level of debate better ideas. Our clients benefit from and improve the quality of dialogue in the results. And our team members our society. Getting beyond the London are more comfortable chatting with bubble, listening more effectively, and strangers to get a sense of their views. being less dismissive of people with Getting physically beyond the M25 is a contrary views will help deliver on that good place to start. But, by itself, that’s responsibility. It’s also good business. not enough to get beyond the London bubble. There’s something else required: And that brings us to the opportunity a curious mind, seasoned with a healthy now before us – the reason for optimism. dose of humility, and self-doubt. First, we By embracing this approach, we can need to question everything, starting with help make things better. By contributing
our own assumptions. The information to a better dialogue, prioritising we absorb, whether from traditional respectfulness, and telling stories that sources or a really interesting Reddit bring people together, we can help thread, we need to think more critically mitigate uncertainty, prevent greater and be more open to points of view division, and contribute to a future for and facts that don’t align with our Britain that is truly brighter.
own worldviews. Marshall Manson MPRCA is the CEO At the same time, we need to embrace of Ogilvy Public Relations in the UK. humility, recognise that we don’t know Marshall became a British citizen in everything, and accept that we have 2015 and worked in US politics from 1995 until 2005. 61 % of non-Londoners do not “ believe that people who live in London share their values. Non-Londoners are also significantly more distrustful of Westminster politicians, business leaders, and national newspapers than “ people who live in London.
17 James Endersby and Adam Drummond Research, statistics, and making political predictions
In an age where everything we do Nate Silver’s success in 2008, when his In contrast, surveys and polls are trying is recorded, collated, and analysed, model successfully predicted 49 out to replicate that primary dataset by we have become used to ‘big data’ of 50 states, is what really catapulted asking people to remember and give us knowing a lot about us. A look through psephology into public consciousness. the information it contains. In contrast to a person’s Amazon history can tell Silver’s method used polls as their the tech giants with data for what market you more about their hobbies and base, but in each state he weighted researchers call the entire ‘universe’, lifestyle than a visit to their home. the poll results by that pollster’s past psephologists and pollsters typically Someone’s Google search history performance (so a poorly performing have access to a few thousand people gives us a window into their thoughts company would be less influential than out of an electorate containing tens, or via the information they look for. And one with a record of accuracy). But he hundreds, of millions. You would need of course, Google, Apple, and the also combined this with non-poll data over 200 typical polls (sample size circa others use their provision of vitally such as past voting trends in particular 2,000) to reach 1% of the UK electorate. useful services (like email, maps, and states as well as demographics and calendars) to put together a complete economics to put together a detailed This much smaller sample size and picture of who we are and what we do. picture of each state. infrequency of data points mean that polls and surveys are much more There is an infamous story from 2012 Silver had great success in 2008 and susceptible to outliers than the datasets about the US retailer Target which used 2012 but his consolation prize in 2016 of online retailers are. If someone gives purchasing patterns to be able to identify was that his estimate (a 71% chance of us what seems to be a strange answer whether somebody was pregnant. Their Hillary Clinton becoming president) was for how they voted in 2015 vs. their goal was to be top of mind for mums- the least bullish of his competitors with answers for 2010 and 2017 then we may to-be at the crucial moment at which the Huffington Post model, for example, have enough other respondents to tell they realise they are pregnant and enter giving Clinton a 98% chance. if this is a trend or statistical noise. If the market for baby-related purchases. someone begins to buy a few packs of The reason you’ve probably heard of What made Silver’s 2016 prediction the nappies or baby food, then Amazon has this is that in one instance it resulted least wrong was that he factored in enough information about that person to in a furious father of a teenage girl uncertainty in a way that his rivals did tell if they are new parents or are being marching into a store angrily demanding not. At its core, the difference between visited by new parents and can look at to know why his daughter had been sent Target predicting that a woman was the circumstances of a few million other promotional materials and vouchers for pregnant before she tells anyone else, people with the same pattern to provide nappies and prams before sheepishly and Nate Silver predicting an election statistical certainty. calling back later with an apology. result is that we have a secret ballot. Nobody can connect your name The method of data collection therefore These feats of statistical analysis are with who you voted for in a validated by itself negates comparisons between impressive, even if a little unnerving, but way, much less do so over numerous election polling and the type of data- they now form such a big part of day-to- elections in your lifetime and build up driven hyper-targeting that retailers and day life that people can be forgiven for an accurate record. In polls and surveys tech giants carry out. expecting similar statistical magic when we ask people how they voted but false it comes to other realms of life such as recall (both deliberately and accidentally) But the public would be forgiven for not politics and elections. is a major factor, as is how representative realising that there is a difference given your sample is and the relative the way that polls tend to be presented. Although we’ve had opinion polls since infrequency of elections. One of the recommendations of the the early-to-mid 20th century, the Sturgis report into why the polls failed recent change has been from looking at Your Google searches and Amazon to predict the 2015 election result was individual polls, through looking at polling purchase history? Those are the original to include confidence intervals when averages across multiple companies (to primary dataset with hundreds of data reporting the numbers. E.g. Labour are take account of various house effects points. Amazon knows for a fact that you on 35% which means there’s a 95% and statistical noise), to sophisticated searched for these products or those chance of the ‘true’ result being between models that have polls at their core but products, when you did so, which other 33% and 37%. This assumes that the apply a number of weights and other ones you looked at and which one you sampling is completely representative data to them. eventually bought. And they know that which is a challenge in and of itself but for millions and millions of people. one that the polling industry is well aware
18 of. As things are though, figures are type to be able to make estimates for presented as being fixed and accurate each seat. The team behind it deserve all down to several decimal places, instead of the plaudits that they have received, of being more of an indicator of where particularly for all the criticism they things stand at a given point in time in a received when first publishing. But two fluctuating situation. things stand out.
Another thing that is perhaps a quirk of First, it’s worth noting that if you had the way that British polls are reported is One of the typed the actual final vote shares into that the published figures almost never electoral calculus (Martin Baxter’s include undecided voters and thus fail recommendations fabulous website that allows you to to give an indication of how the figures play around with different scenarios) may change as more people decide how of the Sturgis report then you would have shown a similar to vote. Our post-election mass survey seat distribution. YouGov changed their to anyone who took part in one of our into why the polls method for their final poll in a way that voting intention polls found that those boosted the Tory lead over Labour. If who decided how to vote in the final failed to predict they hadn’t, there’s a strong chance that week or final month before polling day they would have been able to predict swung in Labour’s direction while those “ a hung parliament without needing to who had made up their minds earlier the 2015 election spend vast resources on an elaborate were more solidly Conservative. This may analytics model. Thus underlining the be something the polling industry should result was to include importance of doing all that we can look at, given its use in other countries. A to get that underlying data to be as week before the 2016 US election, Nate confidence intervals accurate as possible.
Silver pointed out that polling showed Trump and Clinton together taking 85% when reporting The second, and the point at which to of the vote compared to 95% for Barack close this essay, is that the timing is Obama and Mitt Romney at the same the numbers. slightly unfortunate. Voting is a different point four years earlier. This indicated exercise to purchasing and the ways that there were more undecided voters This assumes that we have of collecting data for voting and, thus, more potential chance are far less detailed than those available of an upset and perhaps if UK polls that the sampling to retailers collecting purchasing included this as standard then we might information. Uncertainty is a reality, and a appreciate the level of uncertainty much under-appreciated one and recent is completely “ that exists. experience of elections going against representative which expectations may finally have started to This brings us onto the story of the 2017 get people to treat polls and predictions General Election, the YouGov analytics with appropriate caveats. It’s unfortunate, model which famously predicted a is a challenge in and in this context, that the lesson many are hung parliament a week before the taking from the 2017 election appears to election and attempts to bridge the gap of itself but one that be ‘these things are precisely predictable between big data and polling. The model and here is a new magical data solution performed extremely well on the night, the polling industry is that can predict everything perfectly’. identifying that seats like Canterbury would go red against all expectations. well aware of. James Endersby is the Managing To greatly simplify how it works, the Director and Partner of Opinium; model identifies different types of voter Adam Drummond is the Senior and how many of each type are in each Research Manager and Partner of constituency and then putting together Opinium. vast amounts of survey data of each
19 Lionel Zetter FPRCA Why many of us got things wrong
Introduction Secondly, there was the assumption particular for the pollsters – who have that younger voters do not turn out in to weight their results according to their The PRCA is trying to establish why large numbers. In previous elections, this judgment of likelihood to actually so many ‘experts’ have failed to was undoubtedly the case. Statistically, vote – the results were almost accurately predict the outcome of older voters (60 +) were twice as likely universally disappointing. recent political events. Personally, as younger voters (18 – 24) to turn out. I called Trump, Brexit, Theresa May What was different this time was that Echo chambers and safe as PM, and a 2017 General Election younger voters had been stung by the date right – but like almost everybody Brexit result, and had subsequently spaces else then predicted the result of that realised that if they had turned out in I have long been a critic of academia for election wrongly. So here are my greater numbers, the result could have its less than courageous and ultimately thoughts as to why so many of us been different. There was also, of course, counter-productive policy of denying have got things wrong so frequently in the small matter of the electoral bribe people it disagrees with a platform. I the last year or so. that the Labour Party offered in the form of their promise to scrap student tuition also disagree with the policy of providing fees. students with ‘safe spaces’ where their Fighting the last war preconceptions are immune from all forms of challenge. It is a common criticism of generals that they are always fighting the last war. I have also been critical of the public They look back at what worked and what affairs industry for its propensity towards did not work during previous conflicts, virtue signalling within self-reinforcing and then they attempt to project those echo chambers. This too often leads to a lessons on to current and future wars. failure to examine issues from all angles, It would seem that political pollsters, and a failure to consider the possibility pundits, and public affairs professionals that, just because the vast majority of are guilty of the same thing. We look colleagues wish something to happen, back at previous elections – especially it will do so. The Brexit vote and the the most recent one – and try to election of Donald Trump are classic shoehorn the unique circumstances examples of this type of groupthink. of a new election into the templates of previous ones. Then the 2017 General Election came along and blew a massive hole in the With that in mind, general (and party assumptions of the Conservative Party, specific) shibboleths go unquestioned, the confident predictions of opinion and sacred cows are only slaughtered pollsters, and my own self-belief. I after the event - by which time it is too subscribed to the conventional wisdom late. In the specific case of the 2017 Thirdly, and again based on previous that the Tories would win comfortably General Election, a number of ‘givens’ general elections, there was the and like almost everybody else was turned out to be false. assumption that campaigns do not therefore surprised by the exit poll on significantly affect the result. This time the night and by the eventual result. Firstly, it has long been assumed around, the Tories started off with a 20 that older voters will vote for the point-plus lead in the opinion polls and As somebody who did a great deal of Conservatives no matter what. Following ended up with a two point lead in the doorstep campaigning during the recent the Conservative manifesto, with its actual result. This came about because campaign, I detected a distinct change full frontal assault on the interests of Labour (and Jeremy Corbyn in particular) of mood once the manifesto had been pensioners, this turned out not to be the ran a positive and energetic campaign, published – followed shortly afterwards case. Faced with the threat to the ‘triple and the Tories (and Theresa May in by the u-turn and then the u-turn denial. lock’ and to heating allowances, plus particular) ran a negative and defensive However, since most of my campaigning the threat to confiscate all of their assets campaign. was confined to Enfield and Harrow, (bar a modest £100,000) if they suffered I assumed that this was down to the the misfortune to fall victim to dementia, For many reasons, but primarily these fabled ‘London effect’and that the Tories many older voters switched parties - or three, virtually everybody called the would do better elsewhere. In that, I was simply stayed at home. General Election result wrong. In badly mistaken.
20 aloof – either of which would have been • Populism is not a dirty word. It just Events, dear boy, events damaging. If the election campaign had means that a lot of people think and run for another week, Labour might well behave in a way which ‘people like us’ This famous Harold Macmillan quote have been the largest party. disagree with. It can work both ways. It referred to the perils encountered during is basically a revolt against elites, so if the long process of government, rather And then, of course, there was the the elites are left-wing, then the revolt that the vicissitudes of an election graphic horror of Grenfell Tower where favours the right – and vice versa. campaign lasting a matter of weeks. In people living in a tower block in a rich • Get out more. Talk to – and listen to – the case of the 2017 General Election, Tory borough were engulfed by flames. however, events had a dramatic effect on people down the pub and on the The initial response – from the borough terraces (football, not parliamentary). the outcome. and the government – was leaden. If Grenfell had happened before the 8th • Burst the bubble. Venture out from the The 2017 campaign was punctuated by June, Labour would probably have won close-knit circle of friends, two terrorist incidents which should have outright. acquaintances, and colleagues with shifted the focus to crime and security whom you usually socialise. and had the potential to put a Jeremy • Be sociable on social media. Don’t block Corbyn-led Labour Party in a difficult Conclusion or un-friend somebody just because position. However, Labour succeeded in their political views do not coincide with placing the blame for the attacks on the The most obvious conclusion from all of your own. Tories, citing the fact that police numbers this is that making political predictions is had been cut by Theresa May while she a mug’s game. • Banish safe spaces. Invite speakers who was Home Secretary. The obvious (and hold unfashionable or contrary views and truthful) response was that ‘normal’ However, whether we are pollsters, give them a fair hearing – before crime had been falling consistently for pundits, or public affairs professionals, engaging in robust debate. years and that resources had been our audiences expect us to make • Publish raw unweighted polling numbers re-focused on counter-terrorism was not predictions, and they expect them to alongside the weighted figures, so that offered. be broadly correct. We cannot simply people can make their own minds up. withdraw from the predictions game • Have an open door – and an open There can be no doubt that the Labour because we have got something badly mind. Just because somebody does Party comprehensively outplayed the wrong in the past. One potential solution not like the institutions of the EU does Tories during the campaign. Jeremy is to introduce a host of caveats and to not necessarily make them a bad Corbyn was more energetic and make our predictions nuanced. A better
person. Just because somebody engaging than Theresa May. The Labour solution is to try and get things right next questions the causes and effects of Party manifesto was positive and offered time. Here are a few thoughts as to how climate change does not make them the huge (probably unaffordable) giveaways we might be able to do that. devil incarnate. – not least to students. And the last- minute decision by Jeremy Corbyn to • Don’t be tempted to ‘fight the last war’. • Let a thousand flowers bloom. participate in the television debate was Approach every election (and tactically astute; Theresa May either referendum) as though it were a unique Lionel Zetter FPRCA is Chairman of had to follow his lead or to remain event – because it is. the PRCA Public Affairs and Lobbying Group. Don’t be tempted to ‘fight the last“ war’. Approach every election (and referendum) as though it were a unique event – “because it is.
21 Simon Goldsworthy FPRCA What went wrong with academic political predictions and what might be done to improve them?
The UK’s Political Studies Association referendum is that differential turnout support for the Conservatives among UK (PSA) regularly seeks the predictions probably determined the result: potential academics; there was hardly any support of its specialised, largely academic voters in Remain areas were on average for UKIP in 2015 at a time when the party membership ahead of national ballots. less enthusiastic than those in Leave attracted more votes than the Liberal They were wrong about the result of the ones. In the aftermath of the result we Democrats and Greens combined. A 2015 General Election, and were wrong were frequently reminded that the Scots similar survey found that almost 9 out again in 2017, while in 2016 almost 9 and Northern Irish voted to remain but of 10 academics opposed Brexit in out of 10 of the 500 academics who were seldom reminded that, of voters 2016 – perhaps one reason they were responded predicted a Remain victory in those two countries, only 67% and unwilling or unable to acknowledge the in the EU referendum. Academics are 63% respectively bothered to vote, greater enthusiasm for Vote Leave. There very far from being alone in their failure as compared with 73% in pro-Leave is also anecdotal evidence. We know of to foresee results, but clearly something England and 72% in pro-Leave Wales. a well-known VC who proudly told his is amiss – so why is this happening; Glasgow may have voted overwhelmingly staff that he didn’t know of anyone who is it linked to a wider problem within for Remain, but only 56% of its voters supported Leave. At Sussex University academia; and what can be done to took part. The most pro-Leave area they have discussed how to deal with improve matters? in the UK, Boston in Lincolnshire, ‘right-wing’ attitudes in the classroom, witnessed a 77% turnout, whereas the while at Cambridge a don staged a nude Academics presumably rely on the same turnout in England’s most pro-Remain protest against Brexit (try to imagine the raw material as other experts when it area, Lambeth, was 68%. Turnout in opposite occurring). comes to election predictions – namely London, the only one of England’s opinion polls (these days with rather official regions to vote Remain, was Sometimes it seems contemporary varied findings…), along with a few other below average. academics have retreated into a world straws in the wind, such as local election of their own, a trend exacerbated by results. Given that these indicators In a national referendum, there’s little the extensive use of social media, have often proved to be false friends point in winning a larger proportion which enable them to inhabit virtual for all experts, even seasoned political of the votes in particular localities if gated communities, with an increasingly activists, it’s worth considering what the absolute numbers are stacking up uniform worldview with only nuances value academics can add. the other way. In the case of general of difference allowed. In the case of elections, predicting the impact of the EU Referendum, there was a sense One promising area is turnout, which turnout, split between 650 separate that universities, with so many staff seems to be rearing its head as the constituencies, is intricate but vital work and students from other EU countries crucial imponderable in elections. After to which academics could contribute. (and such great hopes of continued EU all, this is something that only reveals For example, could they have anticipated links and funding), lost touch with the itself on the day. Pollsters struggle to the impact of an increased youth vote society in which they are based. While in determine who really will - or will not – in 2017? Did slightly fewer older voters the run-up to the 2017 general election vote. It seems that a failure to predict turnout for the Conservatives following there was much hopeful chatter about a turnout – not just overall, but by different the difficulties during the campaign (after possible progressive alliance made up of categories of voters, and by locality – has all, overall turnout was only 2.6% higher the sort of parties that academics favour made a decisive contribution to recent in 2017 than in 2015)? – Labour, the Greens, LibDems, and the electoral surprises. SNP – less attention was given to the For example, one telling finding of However, the contribution academics way former UKIP voters were heading. the PSA’s survey before the 2016 could make to predicting results will be Real opportunities to do better exist. EU Referendum was that academics hindered if they are unfamiliar with or out anticipated a turnout of 61% - below the of sympathy with large swathes of voters. As the local and regional media struggle average for recent general elections – The (Times Higher) surveys before both to make ends meet and shrink back when in fact it was just over 72%. recent general elections found strong towards a few major cities, they are support for Labour, considerable support losing the ability to undertake a proper The underreported truth about the for the Greens, and all-but negligible analysis of local and regional political
22 To add value, “ universities need to come down from their ivory towers and speak to a wider “ variety of people in their areas.
currents. Market research is similarly, down from their ivory towers and speak political campaigning and invective must and overwhelmingly, masterminded in to a wider variety of people in their also be guarded against. What they do London. In contrast, universities are areas. Sometimes university towns outside the workplace is up to them, spread across the length and breadth of have become political islands – as but universities do not exist, and are not the UK. They may be predominantly in Norwich and Exeter did during the EU funded, to serve as political campaigning large towns, cities, and conurbations, but Referendum. What about hearing from organisations. People may be relaxed there is now hardly a county without a perfectly legal organisations which are about this if they are in sympathy with university. They can be found in all kinds viewed with distaste on campuses? the views expressed, but a good way of of areas: poor and prosperous; with Universities can be surprisingly intolerant testing this proposition is to imagine how high and low numbers of immigrants; places: a coalition of academic hostility, you’d feel if a large number of academics and with large and small numbers of student union no-platforming, and espoused, in their professional graduates. So, in a changing political ‘security’ concerns must not be allowed capacities, political viewpoints which, world which is marked by strong regional to stifle debate. although legal, you strongly oppose, or differences, academic experts dotted even find repugnant. How would you around the country should be uniquely When UKIP was making so much feel about their ability to empathise with placed to consider local variations in of the political weather in Britain, its others in their professional work? the political currents – whether that be spokespeople were rarely given a hearing the Tory resurgence in Scotland, Labour in higher education. Joseph Conlon, The simple truth is that universities that excelling itself in London, or the LibDem a right-of-centre pro-Brexit Oxford work harder to understand the societies disappointments in their former West professor, has highlighted this decline which they serve will be better placed Country heartlands. into creeping intellectual paralysis: to predict our political future. And those ‘The danger…is that you create a universities which fail to open themselves culture which says people who are not up to society must accept that that’s So what solutions can part of the majority view are implicitly a legitimate subject of concern: once be offered? or explicitly not welcome…Think of the universities start to think that they might history of Oxford and Cambridge. There damage their reputations and lose good Universities would understandably resent are long periods of a couple of hundred students, and perhaps even donations formal interference in their affairs, but years when nothing interesting at all is and research funding, they might start to that does not preclude making helpful happening – when they were basically think again. suggestions. It would surely be a good Anglican seminaries reflecting an inner- thing for universities to open themselves looking orthodoxy. Then, they were not This paper takes account of helpful up to a wider range of views. There is performing their duties as universities. suggestions made by Richmond a danger of groupthink: even the best There is a similar danger nowadays, professors Trevor Morris and Tim Evans ideas need to be continually tested by where we just have everyone thinking the and external guests at a Richmond being subjected to alternative arguments same way.’ University seminar on 11th April, 2017, and evidence. This improvement some of which appeared in a Higher could be achieved by bringing in more Or, as Bill Rammell, a former Labour Education Policy Institute blogpost. guest speakers with a wider range of minister for higher education and now experience and different perspectives, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Simon Goldsworthy FPRCA is and expanding reading lists to include Bedfordshire, said in the wake of the Professor of Public Relations and more viewpoints with which academics referendum result, there was ‘a real and Advertising, Centre for the Study of disagree. This might have the useful significant burden on universities to take Persuasive Industries, Richmond side-effect of making university debates a more substantial role in civil society, University. less predictable. rebuilding public trust through active engagement’. This should involve engaging with a range of local and regional views. To The temptation among academics to add value, universities need to come use ex officio social media accounts for
23 Martha Dalton CMPRCA Populism and political predictions – what’s that coming over the hill?
‘There suddenly upon a ridge our new political reality – they are deeply all beneficiaries of this trend. The major appeared a rider, clad in white, shining interconnected. If we are to understand parties resembled one another closely on in the rising sun. Over the low hills the rise of populism in the UK and matters of policy and left many millions the horns were sounding. Behind him, beyond, and to get to the heart of why of voters to either withhold their vote hastening down the long slopes, were the old rules of political predictions are altogether or to lend it, in protest, to a thousand men on foot; their swords failing, it is vital that we understand the smaller and third parties. were in their hands. Amid them strode group that is driving these changes – a man tall and strong. His shield was non-voters. One consequence of this withdrawal was red. As he came to the valley’s brink, that those whose jobs depend on making he set to his lips a great black horn The Lodestone non-voters survey, political predictions had their lives made and blew a ringing blast.’ prepared by Survation in 2013, polled relatively easier. The likely outcome of over 2,000 voters and non-voters to an election could be determined on a The 2017 election confounded give us an insight into why some people narrower set of factors – the personal commentators, politicians, and experts don’t vote. ‘Non-voters’ in the research polling scores of leaders relative to one alike. Almost no one successfully were defined as those who didn’t vote another becoming ever more important, predicted that Theresa May would in the 2010 election, including ‘new for example. Rather than a complex lose seats, let alone that she would be voters’ who were too young, or who interaction between key individuals, stripped of her overall majority. Jeremy were ineligible to vote at that time. We key policies, and wider trends across Corbyn’s remarkable successes in both are in the process of commissioning the economy and labour market, defending and acquiring seats came as an update of the research. When elections could be imagined to be a a surprise – most of all to those paid to asked about why they didn’t vote, the straightforward battle of presentation. understand politics. majority of non-voters said that they If it makes little difference which party didn’t believe their vote would make governs - when it comes to economic Coming hot on the heels of a series a difference or that they believed that management, policy priorities, or of electoral upsets - Brexit and all the parties and candidates were attitudes to particular groups in society Trump, chief amongst them – the the same. Many non-voters told us - then it makes sense to decide between 2017 result has led to a great deal of that they felt politicians were ‘out of the parties on the basis of the character soul-searching amongst the political touch’, with one Conservative-leaning and temperament of who leads them. commentariat across a range of HGV driver from Wiltshire saying, ‘I apparently distinct themes: populism, don’t think they [politicians] try hard It is the backlash against this model of turnout, polling, and globalisation are enough to understand what it is to be politics that has given us the populism all under the microscope. For public an average person in the community.’ – of left and of right – that has come as affairs professionals it is tempting, In our research, 86% of non-voters said such an unwelcome surprise to political sometimes, to leave causal analyses that they didn’t trust politicians to tell the commentators. The Brexit vote was to the academics and to focus on the truth, indicating that bridging the trust marked by huge numbers of non-voters impact of politics – what will Brexit mean gap would be a significant challenge for re-entering the electorate in order to for client X, how should client Y deal with the future. make their voices heard; the result was the possibility of a Corbyn government? a shock to many ‘experts’, and a stark That is necessary, of course, but at These findings show us that non-voters defeat for the bulk of our political class, Lodestone, we pride ourselves on have felt deeply disengaged from our or ‘anywhere’ people as defined by David helping our clients and partners to see politics (as you might expect) and Goodhart. So, too, was the 2017 result. beyond the immediate and to consider that they are particularly concerned the upstream factors that shape the about the convergence between the Jeremy Corbyn successfully re-engaged political environment in the long term. main parties that was a feature of first many people who had declined to vote in Blairism and then Cameronism. As the the past three or four elections and used That is why, over the last five years, we Labour and Conservative parties moved his brand of populism to attract young have funded and undertaken research intentionally towards the ‘centre’, so voters in record numbers. He broke the on patterns in the behaviour and views many whose political instincts lie further centrist mould by reaching beyond the of non-voters in the UK – a group that I to the periphery gave up on voting or standard battlegrounds of UK politics believe hold many of the answers to the activism on the premise that it made and striking a pose that conflicted with knotty conundrums that recent elections little difference to policy, no matter who our accepted models of leadership and have posed for our political class. won. Non-voting went up – in part for sound campaign management. The 2017 these reasons – but so, over this period, election saw the highest turnout (68.7%) The truth is that populism, turnout, and did support for smaller parties. At one in the UK since 1997 (71.4%) and saw a the collapse of the ‘expert prediction’ in time or another the Liberal Democrats, wholesale return to ‘two-party’ politics, recent years are not unrelated factors in Scottish National Party, and UKIP were with many switching back from third 24 The truth is that populism, turnout, and the“ collapse of the ‘expert prediction’ in recent years are not unrelated factors in our new political reality – they are deeply interconnected.
parties to one of the big two. This was that it has worked. Theresa May and Finally, they are in decline. There are a result of a campaign“ that looked Jeremy Corbyn both used populist similarities between non-voters and and sounded unlike any that we have messaging and policy (be it crushing young voters; both are less reliable when experienced in those twenty years. the ‘saboteurs of Brexit’ or breaking it comes to turn-out, both are inclined to a ‘rigged system set up by the wealth big and bold changes and are frustrated This is why making predictions is extractors, for the wealth extractors’) and with our old political certainties, and both harder when populists are in play. Had they both benefited from doing so. The were tempted to the ballot box in 2017 the electorate resembled more closely Conservative Party may have suffered a in unprecedented numbers. But there the one fashioned by two decades of humiliating seat-by-seat disappointment, are differences too. While younger voters centrism then it is likely that the result but they enjoyed their highest vote are open to the hopeful and idealistic would have more closely resembled the share since 1983; Corbyn may not be notions of Corbyn’s Labour Party they one expected by experts and campaign Prime Minister but he rides a wave of are overwhelmingly and passionately professionals alike. But it did not. Jeremy momentum that few thought possible opposed to the other great populist offer Corbyn and Theresa May both broke when the snap election was called. of today’s politics (one embraced by many of the rules of the Blair-Cameron Does this mean that those of us in the Corbyn and by the Tories alike), Brexit. playbook. They fought campaigns political predictions game should bet the As greater and greater proportions of our which were designed to reconnect house on populism for the foreseeable? population become degree-educated their parties with neglected groups; Not quite. (the best predictor for supporting May’s emphasis on Brexit and grammar Remain) the divide between returning schools, Corbyn’s on redistribution and Party leaders and political pundits non-voters and newly engaged young inequality. Both parties’ vote share rose alike should caution themselves with voters will become ever starker. as a result and millions went to the ballot the following facts, highlighted by for either the first time or for the first time Lodestone’s work on non-voters. A long-mythologised but often dismissed in decades. This also represents (at least) One, non-voters are erratic. This is a army turned up and joined in battle at a pause in the gentrification of politics. group who have walked away from the last election. Young people voting for politics or from their party of choice the first time and older people returning The Blairite project in Labour was to before – they can, and will, do so again. to the ballot box after a two-decade reach out to the middle classes on the Neither May nor Corbyn should consider absence; they delivered a fundamental basis that loyal, working-class voters the non-voters who turned out at the last shock and turned many of our long- would stay put out of collective loyalty. minute to rescue their political fortunes accepted laws of our politics on their It worked, but it lost him five million as, in any way, ‘banked’. Political parties head. It is non-voters who have driven voters over his period in office. In many of all stripes need to ensure they take politics to populism on the left and the ways, Theresa May’s campaign was the time to understand their supporters, right. And it is populism that has made Blairism mirrored. She sought (and listen to them, and not take them for fools of so many of our pundits. But just won) a new working class mandate for granted. We hope that our updated as so many pollsters and experts were conservatism while hoping that she research into non-voters will support wrong to dismiss the rise of non-voters would hold on (by right, almost) to those this effort. and of the politics that they demanded, middle-class voters who had supported we would be wrong now to see those Cameron. May increased her party’s Two, they are vulnerable. demands as fixed in aspic. The ‘great share of C2DE voters by 12 points. She Overwhelmingly, non-voters are less black horn’ may call these legions to succeeded in smashing the old class economically secure than those who vote and participate for the foreseeable cleavage that kept the Tories out of play are routinely engaged in politics. Their future, but on whose side they will fight is in seats like Mansfield. But she lost to relative insecurity and historic lack of not yet set in stone. We need to take the Corbyn swathes of liberal middle-class rewards under centrist governments is time to listen properly, understand, and voters in previous fortress seats such part of the reason that this group has respond to the hopes, aspirations, and as Canterbury. We may be seeing the been attracted by big, populist changes concerns of voters, new voters, and non- beginning of one of British politics’ such as Brexit or a Corbyn Government. voters to renew our democracy. occasional great shifts – with degree But it also means that they will be the educated voters and public sector voters first victims and hardest hit should either Martha Dalton CMPRCA is cementing behind Labour while the of these adventures go wrong. Populist Managing Director of Lodestone skilled working class turn Tory. governments do not have a glistening Communications and Co-Founder of track record for economic or political RegistHER To Vote, the campaign to Populism has been deployed in British management – should Brexit for example encourage women to register to vote. politics, by both sides, in an effort end in ruin, their supporters will be to re-engage voters lost and voters left angrier and more disengaged than who never were. The good news is before. 25 James Turgoose MPRCA The rise of political uncertainty
Does it matter that political experts issues – from expansion at Heathrow, the enormous benefits of being able have become, well, less expert? As data protection regulations, the to communicate directly with voters) Michael Gove (in)famously said during apprenticeship levy, national living wage, posed another significant problem to the Brexit referendum: ‘people in this etc.– is unprecedented. Can anyone the traditional role of the public affairs country have had enough of experts’. predict what is going to happen or agency. Now anyone, including clients, Well, it’s one thing for the general who will be sitting around the Cabinet can engage with politicians directly public to have lost faith in experts but table in six months’ time making and track his or her position on a wide what about those businesses, policy decisions? range of issues. If need be, they can charities, and other organisations who also contact them directly – the role employ public affairs agencies to be In such a fluid and fast-moving political of ‘gatekeeper’ that used to be the their experts in all matters related to environment, it seems to me that public preserve of the public affairs agency has politics, policy, and regulations? affairs agencies should give up trying disappeared. Twitter broke down the to make accurate short to medium term gates to the Palace and rightly so. Numerous examples have appeared predictions – but if we do, what should across the UK and the USA in recent our role be for our clients? Of at least equal importance was how months, especially since the election of the explosion in online outlets and President Trump, that appear to confirm What are we for? And political content helped to create a that for the first time in decades polit- new environment where policy issues ical risk and uncertainty is a real issue haven’t we been here could be raised and put on the agenda for businesses. Many leading FTSE 100 at staggering speed. New campaign chairmen have confirmed that ‘geo-politi- before? organisations can appear overnight and a key role of the public affairs cal risk and uncertainty’ is on the agenda For me, there are many similarities with agency today is to provide the advice of boardrooms week in and week out. how the public affairs world has adapted and tools necessary for companies to in recent years to the rise of social media effectively prepare and engage with such In the UK this was first exemplified by and before that the internet. Brexit – with its myriad of implications organisations as soon as possible. across a range of regulatory issues Two decades ago a key role of the public These examples demonstrate that public attached to it – but the recent General affairs agency would be to provide affairs agencies have proven themselves Election and hung parliament have only information and, where necessary, to be adaptable before and will do underlined the degree to which we live in access to politicians. I’m told, by a so again. uncertain times. The election of President dear former colleague, that political Trump has magnified Brexit onto the monitoring used to include photocopying The unpredictability of politics in recent global stage – with some even question- relevant excerpts of Hansard and faxing years has created two key opportunities ing if the Western liberal system of rules them to the client! Unimaginable today for public affairs agencies to seize upon. and global trade will survive the where Hansard is updated online within next decade. hours and just one example of how agencies have adapted over time to 1. In a recent report by Global Counsel, where they can add the most value. which was covered in the Financial The importance of challenging Times, the level of uncertainty around The emergence of Twitter (it took rather convention. The great Obama strategist a whole host of UK public policy a long time for politicians to appreciate David Axelrod (who had rather less
26 success advising Ed Miliband) famously said ‘the thing about conventional So in conclusion, bear wisdoms is that they are almost always in mind the following: wrong’. The inability of most political pundits to predict Brexit, Trump, or the • Translate information into valuable and rise of Corbyn would seem to confirm practical advice. In essence, we all this. So going forward the successful know there is an unprecedented amount public affairs agencies will be the ones of information available to everyone and who challenge effectively. This might anyone. But information isn’t the same include tough conversations with as knowledge. Understand the political clients about what they are seeking to landscape and how it impacts upon the FTSE 100 achieve. Or it might include a hard-hitting regulatory environment that your clients examination of whether your agency has operate in. the right connections and knowledge chairmen have to deliver. • Speak the language of business.
Commercialise your advice and become confirmed 2. a business adviser to your client, providing them with counsel on policy Move the debate around public affairs issues that will specifically affect them. that ‘geo- expertise and engagement from being a ‘nice to have’ to ‘essential’. In 2015, • Plan for a range of outcomes. This might a survey carried out by Watson Helsby seem obvious but in a world where the political risk and “ unexpected is likely to happen, have a “ suggested that nearly half of FTSE 100 firms didn’t have a senior public affairs plan for all political scenarios. director – an indication presumably uncertainty’ is that boardrooms did not deem the • Challenge conventional ways of political and regulatory environment of operating. Including how your agency on the agenda sufficient concern to merit it. It would has delivered advice and support in be interesting to run that survey again the past. today. The unpredictability of politics of boardrooms means that many businesses are already • Business needs us. For the first time in a reviewing their risk registers – part of generation, businesses are worried this should be to ensure that their public about the political landscape. The week in and affairs function is as good as it could be. uncertainty of recent years has created a The likelihood, of course, is that large compelling commercial reason for parts of many businesses have always business to buy the best advice around. week out. been affected by Government policy, but Seize the opportunity. only recently has this been understood and appreciated in the boardroom. James Turgoose MPRCA is Managing Director of JBP.
27 PRCA 82 Great Suffolk Street London SE1 0BE
T 020 7233 6026 F 020 7828 4797 www.prca.org.uk The Power of Communication