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IN SEARCH of an AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY for the MIDDLE EAST

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IN SEARCH of an AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY for the MIDDLE EAST IN SEARCH OF AN AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FOR tHE MIDDLE EAST A Report of the Aspen Strategy Group Kurt M. Campbell, Editor Co-Chairmen Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Brent Scowcroft To obtain additional copies of this report, please contact: The Aspen Institute Fulfillment Office P.O. Box 222 109 Houghton Lab Lane Queenstown, Maryland 21658 Phone: (410) 820-5338 Fax: (410) 827-9174 E-mail: [email protected] For all other inquiries, please contact: The Aspen Institute Aspen Strategy Group One Dupont Circle, N.W. Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 736-5800 Fax: (202) 467-0790 Copyright © 2004 The Aspen Institute Published in the United States of America 2004 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-400-9 Inv No.: 04-004 Cover Image: Framed by U.S. Marines, Iraqi civilians flee the capital of Baghdad as fighting intensifies (April 5, 2003). ©Christophe Calais/In Visu/Corbis ii A N A MERICAN G RAND S TRATEGY FOR THE M IDDLE E AST CONTENTS PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. 1 DISCUSSANTS AND GUEST EXPERTS . 3 WORKSHOP SCENE SETTER AND DISCUSSION GUIDE Kurt M. Campbell In Search of An American Grand Strategy for the Middle East . 7 SETTING AMERICAN PRIORITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST Edward Walker The Middle East: Policies for the Coming Decades . 21 R. James Woolsey Grand Strategy in the Middle East: The Long War of the 21st Century. 29 THE SECURITY DIMENSION Kenneth M. Pollack Future Security Challenges in the Middle East . 41 Judith Miller Countering WMD Proliferation After Iraq . 51 POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION Michèle A. Flournoy Lessons for the United States from Afghanistan and Iraq . 61 Jane Holl Lute Post-Conflict Iraq and U.S. Grand Strategy in the Middle East: The Role of Multilateral Institutions . 73 MODERNIZING SOCIETIES AND POLITICAL REFORM David Lipton Economic Modernization in the Middle East. 85 Dennis Ross Taking Stock: The Bush Administration and the Roadmap to Peace . 97 A N A MERICAN G RAND S TRATEGY FOR THE M IDDLE E AST iii CONTENTS CONT. AMERICA’S IMAGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST Fareed Zakaria Does Public Diplomacy Matter? . 111 CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS Kurt M. Campbell Aspen Strategy Group Workshop, August 2–7, 2003 . 121 iv AN A MERICAN G RAND S TRATEGY FOR THE M IDDLE E AST PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS he Aspen Strategy Group met in Aspen, Colorado from August 2 through August 7, 2003 to examine the contours and complications of American grand strategy in the Middle TEast. We commissioned and received an unusually exceptional group of papers that helped animate our discussions over the week. The meeting could not have been more timely, given press- ing circumstances in Iraq, Afghanistan and, indeed, throughout the Middle East. Our participants, both Aspen Strategy Group members and invited guests, all put enormous effort into tackling the nettlesome issues associated with the formulation and execution of American policy toward this troubled region. Our efforts in Aspen would not have come together without the hard work of Willow Darsie and Julianne Smith. The Aspen Strategy Group is particularly grateful to the Ford Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation for their vital and generous support. In addition, we must thank our dedicated foundation officers for their commit- ment to the Aspen Strategy Group. Without their support, these meetings would not be possible. Above all, thanks go to our superb chairmen, Joseph Nye and General Brent Scowcroft, for their undaunted leadership and commitment to understanding the complex world in which we live. Thank you, Joe and Brent. Kurt M. Campbell Director, Aspen Strategy Group Washington, DC January 2004 A N A MERICAN G RAND S TRATEGY FOR THE M IDDLE E AST 1 DISCUSSANTS AND GUEST EXPERTS CO-CHAIRMEN Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Dean and Professor of Public Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Brent Scowcroft, President, The Scowcroft Group DIRECTOR Kurt M. Campbell, Senior Vice President and Director of International Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies PARTICIPANTS Madeleine K. Albright, Principal, The Albright Group Graham T. Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, and Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Zoë Baird, President, The Markle Foundation Frederick Barton, Senior Advisor, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies Judith H. Bello, Visiting Lecturer, Yale Law School and Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs Stephen Biegun, Assistant to the Majority Leader for National Security Affairs, Office of the Majority Leader Antony J. Blinken, Minority Staff Director, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Lael S. Brainard, New Century Chair, The Brookings Institution Samuel Brownback, Senator, United States Senate William Joseph Burns, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State Ashton B. Carter, Ford Foundation Professor of Science & International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Eliot A. Cohen, Professor, Johns Hopkins University/SAIS Richard N. Cooper, Professor, International Economics, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University Bathsheba Crocker, International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Kenneth W. Dam, Max Pam Professor of American & Foreign Law, University of Chicago Law School Thomas E. Donilon, Executive Vice President, Law and Policy, Fannie Mae Corporation Note: Titles and affiliations are as of the date of the meeting. A N A MERICAN G RAND S TRATEGY FOR THE M IDDLE E AST 3 Aspen Strategy Group Richard Fairbanks, Counselor, Center for Strategic and International Studies Dianne Feinstein, Senator, United States Senate Michèle A. Flournoy, Senior Adviser for International Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies Margaret Hamburg, Vice President for Biological Programs, Nuclear Threat Initiative Jane Harman, Member of Congress, United States House of Representatives Sidney Harman, Chairman and CEO, Harman International Industries, Inc. Arnold Kanter, Senior Fellow, Forum for International Policy David A. Lipton, Managing Director, Moore Capital Strategy Group Jane Holl Lute, Assistant Secretary-General, Department of Peacekeeping Operations, The United Nations Sylvia Mathews, Executive Vice President, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Judith Miller, Senior Writer, The New York Times Janne E. Nolan, Professor, Georgetown University Thomas O’Gara, Chairman, Kroll-O’Gara Company William J. Perry, Professor, Center for International Security and Arms Control Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution Jack Reed, Senator, United States Senate Susan E. Rice, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Dennis B. Ross, Counselor and Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy David E. Sanger, Senior White House Correspondent, The New York Times Wendy Sherman, Principal, The Albright Group Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, Senior Research Scholar, Center for International Security & Cooperation, Stanford-Harvard Preventive Defense Project Smita Singh, Special Advisor for Global Affairs, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation James B. Steinberg, Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution Marin Strmecki, Vice President and Director of Programs, Smith Richardson Foundation Edward S. Walker, President, The Middle East Institute Christopher A. Williams, Partner, Johnston and Associates Christine Wing, Program Officer for Peace and Security, Ford Foundation R. James Woolsey, Vice President, Booz Allen Hamilton Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International ASG STAFF Willow Darsie, Associate Director, Aspen Strategy Group Julianne Smith, Consultant, Aspen Strategy Group Howard Yuan, Summer Associate, Aspen Strategy Group 4AN A MERICAN G RAND S TRATEGY FOR THE M IDDLE E AST WORKSHOP SCENE SETTER AND DISCUSSION GUIDE Workshop Scene Setter and Discussion Guide IN SEARCH OF AN AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST WORKSHOP SCENE SETTER AND DISCUSSION GUIDE KURT M. CAMPBELL DIRECTOR,ASPEN STRATEGY GROUP SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT,KISSINGER CHAIR,AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM DIRECTOR CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Former Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara was fond of saying that the Middle East was the graveyard of American diplomatic hopes and dreams, and this is a man who knows something about disappointment in global politics (as well as cemeteries). Now, the United States has embarked upon an ambitious mission to remake the Middle East – rebuilding war-ravaged and leader-abused countries in Afghanistan and Iraq, seeking to settle the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, blocking further nuclear proliferation, pushing the region to embrace political mod- eration and reform, and hopefully improving America’s image in the region in the process. There are unintentional though unavoidable echoes of the “best and the brightest” in this campaign as the U.S. embarks upon a global crusade (call it what it is) to help re-direct the course of one of the world’s dominant civilizations and the institutions that have served it so poorly. This uniquely American sense of mission and manifest destiny is apparent in a range of endeavors worldwide but it is in the Middle East where U.S. ambitions approach the point of audacity. It would be difficult to exaggerate
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