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Oecd Development Centre OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 113 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 113) CHINESE OUTWARD INVESTMENT IN HONG KONG: TRENDS, PROSPECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS by Yun-Wing Sung Research programme on: Reform and Growth of Large Developing Countries July 1996 OCDE/GD(96)53 TABLE OF CONTENTS RÉSUMÉ ................................................................................................................ 7 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 7 PREFACE ............................................................................................................... 9 I. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 11 II. CHINESE INVESTMENT IN HONG KONG: AN APPRAISAL................................. 13 III. THE DETERMINANTS OF CHINESE INVESTMENT IN HONG KONG .................. 25 IV. PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS.......................................................................... 33 NOTES ................................................................................................................... 35 APPENDIX TABLES ................................................................................................ 37 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................... 45 5 6 RÉSUMÉ Depuis une dizaine d’années, la Chine est le premier investisseur parmi les pays en développement, et Hong Kong la première destination des investissements chinois. Toutefois, en raison de la sous-déclaration liée à la fraude du contrôle des changes, les statistiques officielles sous-estiment largement les flux d’investissement extérieur de la Chine. Ce document technique tente d’évaluer le montant de ces flux d’investissement et d’en décrire la nature. Il recense les nombreuses estimations des investissements chinois vers Hong Kong, en identifiant leurs sources, ainsi que les informations sur lesquelles elles sont fondées. Il apparaît que la plupart de ces estimations sont des approximations grossières, établies sur la base de données très incomplètes. Néanmoins, il est possible d’évaluer le niveau de ces investissements d’après la valeur des actifs des entreprises chinoises à Hong Kong et leur capitalisation boursière, ainsi que sur la base d’entretiens avec des interlocuteurs informés. De plus, ce document évalue le poids des entreprises chinoises dans l’économie de Hong Kong. Il analyse la répartition de leurs investissements par secteur et selon la nature des investisseurs (ministères centraux, gouvernements locaux ou provinciaux, organismes militaires). Enfin, il analyse les déterminants économiques et politiques des flux d’investissement de la Chine vers Hong Kong, et présente des conclusions de politique économique pour les deux économies. SUMMARY Over the last decade, China has been the leading investor among developing countries and Hong Kong is the foremost destination of Chinese investment. However, China’s outward investment has been grossly understated in official statistics due to avoidance of China’s foreign exchange controls. This paper tries to appraise those investment flows both quantitatively and qualitatively. It examines the many estimates of Chinese investment in Hong Kong, tracing their sources and bases of estimation. Most of these estimates are found to be crude guesses with very little empirical support. However, from the data on asset value and market capitalisation of listed Chinese companies in Hong Kong, and also from interviews with knowledgeable sources, it is possible to gauge the rough size of Chinese investment in Hong Kong. The paper also examines China’s economic presence in major sectors of the Hong Kong economy. It discusses the composition of Chinese investment by industry and by ownership (central ministries, provincial and local governments, and military-backed). The economic and political determinants of China’s investment in Hong Kong are analysed, and the policy implications for Hong Kong and China are examined. 7 8 PREFACE While China has attracted much public attention as a host of foreign direct investment, less attention has been given to the fact that China has been the leading foreign investor among developing countries. There are few studies available on this topic and this paper is intended to fill the gap by focusing on an analysis of recent trends in China’s outward investment in Hong Kong, by far the most important destination of Chinese investment abroad. The author shows that several earlier estimates of the size of Chinese investment in Hong Kong are grossly underestimated. The main thrust of his argument is that direct investment in Hong Kong has been an important component of China’s open-economy reforms, and at the same time it has made a significant contribution to the prosperity and stability of Hong Kong. This paper by Professor Yun-Wing Sung provides a detailed analysis of China’s outward investment in Hong Kong and presents an insight into the growing interdependence of what is soon to be “two economic systems in one country”. Professor Sung is Chairman of the Economics Department, and Co-Director of the Hong Kong and Asia-Pacific Economies Research Programme, at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Prepared under the theme of “Reform and Growth of Large Developing Countries”, the paper makes an important contribution to the Centre’s ongoing research on China. Jean Bonvin President OECD, Development Centre July 1996 9 10 I. INTRODUCTION In recent years, China has been the largest investor among LDCs and Hong Kong has been the number one destination of Chinese outward investment. As Hong Kong is China’s window to the outside world, the concentration of China’s outward investment in Hong Kong is to be expected. While Hong Kong has been the number one investor in China since the inauguration of China’s open policy in 1979, consistently accounting for roughly 60 per cent of the foreign investment in China, Chinese investment in Hong Kong had been less notable, as China was short of capital. However, rapid economic development in China changed the picture. Though exact figures are not available, it is commonly reckoned that China surpassed the United States and Japan to become the largest investor in Hong Kong in the early 1990s. Presently, Chinese investment in Hong Kong is well over US$20 billion. The intense investment between China and Hong Kong ties the two economies together and also links the Chinese economy to the world economy. While there have been many studies of inward foreign investment in China, especially that from Hong Kong, there have been few studies of Chinese outward investment in Hong Kong. This paper represents an effort to fill the gap. Chinese investment in Hong Kong was significant even before the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949, as Hong Kong had historically been the port of South China. The Maoist era of 1949 to 1976 largely coincided with that of the cold war. During this period, China was isolated, and the value of Hong Kong as China’s ‘window to the world’ was thereby enhanced. In the Maoist era, the economic ties linking China and Hong Kong were strong, but the relationship was asymmetric. Hong Kong was open to China’s export and investment, and Hong Kong residents were able to visit their relatives on the Mainland, but reverse flows were barred. From the mid 1960s until 1977, Hong Kong consumed around one-sixth of China’s exports and re- exported another 4 per cent of China’s exports to third countries. In total, Hong Kong accounted for over one-fifth of China’s exports (Sung 1991: 19). Hong Kong exports to China (including re-exports of third country goods to China) were negligible during the period. China thus ran a huge trade surplus with Hong Kong, amounting to one- fifth of China’s total exports, and China used the hard currency thus earned to finance its imports of grain, industrial raw materials and capital goods from developed countries. China also earned substantial amounts of foreign exchange from remittances and tourist expenditure of Hong Kong residents, and investment earnings from Hong Kong (Jao 1983: 41 - 49). Jao (1983:58) estimated that China’s net foreign exchange earnings from Hong Kong ranged between US$2.7 billion and US$6.9 billion from 1977 to 1980, or around 30 per cent of China’s total current account foreign exchange earnings. During the Maoist era, though China’s investment in Hong Kong was substantial, Chinese investment strategy was conservative. China’s business interests in Hong Kong were traditionally represented by four large conglomerates, namely the Bank of China and its 12 sister banks (BOC Group), China Resources Company, China 11 Merchants Company and China Travel Service. The BOC Group confined themselves to China-related banking business such as trade financing and handling remittances. The BOC Group largely refrained from lending to local businesses, including in the lucrative and dynamic real estate sector. The China Resources Company controlled by China’s Ministry of Foreign Trade served as the sole agent of China’s exports to Hong Kong. The China Merchants Company controlled by the Ministry of Communications was mainly engaged in shipping China-related trade. China Travel Service under the control of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office was China’s largest travel agency operating outside China. It handled overseas visitors as well as shipping, warehousing, and handling of cargo. In
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