Regional Aspects of a Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement: Next Steps to Preserve and Promote the Peace Process
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
BAKER INSTITUTE STUDY PUBLISHED BY THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY OF RICE UNIVERSITY NO. 2 1996 REGIONAL ASPECTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE SETTLEMENT: NEXT STEPS TO PRESERVE AND PROMOTE THE PEACE PROCESS Executive Summary e Middle East peace process is at another his- ficial press statement that “ere will be no peace and toric and critical crossroads. e recent change in gov- no security without withdrawal (from Golan).” ernment in Israel as a result of the Likud victory will At one level, a protracted hiatus risks a, perhaps, undoubtedly, but both regrettably and understand- decisive loss of momentum in the peace process. But a ably, lead to a pause in the peace process as the new limited pause can also provide opportunities to set the Israeli government assesses its options and determines stage for future progress. Accordingly, it is essential in its policies. e results of the election indicate that, the near term to provide the “political space” necessary while the majority of Israelis continue to sup- port for the new Israeli government to establish its chan- the peace process, they do have doubts about its pace nels to all the Arab negotiating parties, most immedi- and direction. We suspect that Arab popular opinion ately with the Palestinian leader- ship, in order to pave would parallel the attitudes of the Israelis in reflecting the way toward the resumption of serious negotia- a similar caution because the “fruits of peace” have not tions with the ultimate goal of a comprehensive peace been translated into facts on the ground, especially in settlement involving all the parties, especially Syria. economic and social terms in the Palestinian context. In this context, the United States government has ere is little likelihood in the short term of either a critical political role to play as the “honest broker” (a) significant progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front to assure that the principles of the Madrid peace beyond possible adherence to commitments made un- process remain the basis of negotiations: namely, der the current agreements between the two parties or direct face-to-face negotiations on the basis of UNSC (b) a breakthrough with Syria. ere will be a renewed Resolutions 242 and 338. Essential to the United focus on Lebanon as to whether or not movement on States government’s ability to do so is adherence to that front is possible independent of an Israeli-Syr- these longstanding bipartisan positions in support of ian agreement and based on the withdrawal of Israeli the principle of land for peace, the establishment of troops from the security zone in Lebanon and the meaningful security arrangements and guarantees, and establishment of necessary security arrangements on the position that Israeli settlements are obstacles to the Lebanese-Israeli border. Here a word of caution peace. Departure from these principled positions by is in order because there are real risks associated with the United States administration will undermine the an attempt to cut a separate deal on the Lebanese peace process as a whole. A parallel and equally im- front. Syria would not perceive it to be in its interests portant role for the Europeans and the World Bank to to have an Israeli Lebanese agreement move forward, help stabilize the situation is also called for in terms of leaving Syria as the “odd man out” in the peace pro- institution building, especially in the Palestinian con- cess. e Syrian position was reflected in a recent of- text, and economic assistance. A coherent and con- BAKER INSTITUTE STUDY NO. 2, 1996 structive division of labor between the United States Conference as contained in U.N. Resolutions 242 and and Europe can do much to enhance the prospects for 338. Peace with security is a corollary requirement, peace in the region. and the elaboration of specific security arrangements Given these realities, emphasis now should be placed that meet the requirements of both sides is essential. on four general areas: is elaboration includes clear agreements on prevent- I . e Israeli Palestinian front, which may well be ing and eliminating acts of violence and terrorism the most immediate flash point. Effective efforts by from individuals and groups inside and outside of the the Israeli government and the Palestinian authority region. are called for to avoid provocative acts of omission or commission that could unravel progress thus far 4. A coherent division of international labor in achieved and plunge both parties into a downward support of a comprehensive settlement. While coordinat- cycle of recrimination and violence. ing, politically, to the fullest extent possible with the a. e Israeli government must establish Europeans, the United States should retain its historic formal and informal lines of communication to the role of crisis manager between Arabs and Israelis and Palestinian leadership necessary for crisis management “honest broker” in the peace process. e Western and for the initiation of final status negotiations. Europeans should focus on economic support and b. Access to the Israeli labor market by Pal- institution building, most notably through the Bar- estinian workers with agreed-upon security measures celona framework. Private investors and international should be resumed as soon as possible to alleviate the financial institutions, especially the World Bank, have dangerous and depressed economic situation in the key and complementary roles to play in economic West Bank and, especially, in Gaza. development. c. Israel should carry through the agreement to redeploy IDF troops from Hebron in a manner, Background. e Best of Times, the Worst of Times which assures the security needs of both sides. d. A second set of measures involving mutual e current situation in the Middle East recalls a obligations that should be observed by both the Israe- phrase of Charles Dickens; it is the best of times, it is lis and the Palestinians is also enumerated in the text the worst of times. On the positive side, we see that: of this working paper. — e fall of the Soviet Union means that the e. e unfulfilled cooperative steps of the Oslo Middle East is no longer a focus of contention be- I and Oslo 11 agreements should be carried out. tween the super- powers. —e international coalition formed for the Gulf 2. Economic cooperation among the various parties to War changed regional stereotypes; Syria broke from the process with which Israel has concluded agreements: Arab radical ranks and aligned itself with the U.S. and the Palestinians, Jordan, and Egypt. Such a focus has moderate Arab states. several advantages. It will increase the economic well — Desert Storm shifted the military balance in being of all involved, most especially the Palestinians, the region in a positive direction. and serve to marginalize extremists. It is less likely — Arabs and Israelis for the first time met in face- to arouse the political sensitivities of the Likud gov- to- face, direct negotiations under the Madrid Peace ernment. Two areas, in particular - energy and water Conference framework and produced the Declaration - hold special promise and could provide a model for of Principles between Israel and the PLO, the Oslo expanded regional economic cooperation to include, Accords, and the Israeli-Jordanian Treaty. in a later stage, Syria, Lebanon, and other Arab states. — Palestinian elections demonstrated a real com- Specific proposals are contained in this paper. mitment to democratic principles. — e global economy presents both opportuni- 3. Progress on the Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese ties and challenges to the Middle East countries in negotiations. Any Israeli-Syrian agreement must be terms of economic and social development. based on the fundamental principles of the Madrid On the negative side, we see that: — Iran and Iraq remain sources of instability, pressed and dangerous economic situation, especially both internally and externally. in Gaza. — Domestic political considerations will loom — Access to the Israeli labor market by Palestinian larger in United States foreign policy decision making workers with agreed upon security measures should be in 1996 - a presidential election year. resumed as soon as possible to alleviate the dangerous — Recent acts of violence and terrorism in the and de- pressed economic situation in the West Bank Middle East demonstrate that extremists, religious and, especially, in Gaza. and secular on all sides, can deal devastating blows to — Israel should carry through the agreement to the peace process and regional stability. re-deploy IDF troops from Hebron in a manner that — e fruits of the peace process which began assures the security needs of both sides. with the Madrid conference have not been fully real- Mutual Obligations. e second set of measures ized in terms of a comprehensive peace on all fronts, involves mutual obligations that the Israelis and the especially with the lack of forward movement on the Palestinians should pledge to observe. Syrian and Lebanese negotiations. — No new Israeli settlements and no additional e door is still open to making dramatic political confiscations of Arab land. and economic progress in the region. A concerted ef- - No closing down or hindering Palestinian insti- fort by the parties in the region, the cosponsors of the tutions in Jerusalem which existed prior to September peace process, especially the United States, the Euro- 1993. pean Union, and the interested financial institutions, — A strong commitment by both sides to secu- particularly the World Bank, is essential. A failure to rity co- operation, with effective measures instituted act now would constitute a serious set- back to the to achieve this end in order to deter acts of violence peace process and may undermine the historic prog- and terrorism and to enhance the personal security of ress achieved since the Madrid conference in 1991.