Tracking an Alliance

SUPERPOWERS | Feature PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY CORRIE BUCHANAN DEMMLER | ORIGINAL IMAGE - CREATIVE COMMONS | KREMLIN.RU - CREATIVE CORRIE BUCHANAN DEMMLER | ORIGINAL IMAGE BY ILLUSTRATION PHOTO Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping shake hands during the 9th BRICS Summit on Sept. 4, 2017 in Xiamen, China. TRACKING AN ALLIANCE Professors illuminate six decades of Sino-Soviet relations to help predict future patterns. BY MARY ANN KURKER cholars visiting the archives With only pen and paper, Kiril and director of Asian Studies. in Moscow must follow the Tochkov made a startling discovery. “For Tochkov uncovered secret Kremlin’s strict rules. a month and a half, I was writing like communications that illuminate the Permission must be granted the medieval monk that was copying fragile relationship between Russia and in advance, and Russian the Bible,” said the associate professor neighboring China. In the 1950s and ’60s, Sauthorities decide which documents are of economics, who scoured historic Soviet diplomats in Beijing were listening released. Cameras and scanners are documents for his research on Sino- to every speech given by Chinese leaders. forbidden. Photocopies are nearly Russian relations with Carrie Liu Currier, They expected to hear some gratitude impossible to obtain. associate professor of political science for Soviet efforts that helped launch Winter 2018 | TCU MAGAZINE 27 Feature | SUPERPOWERS have a history of distrust with each meaning the official policy of close ties other, and the marriage of interests is has not yet reached the ground. temporary. It could change in the next “We see Presidents [Vladimir] Putin two or three years, and that would not be and Xi [Jinping] shaking hands and surprising.” signing a bunch of treaties, but Chinese “THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF What distinguishes the TCU project goods entering Russia still face logistic is the extensive analysis of both the INCREASING INTEREST and bureaucratic obstacles at the border,” political and economic ideologies in Tochkov said. “We can argue that the China and Russia over the past six IN ASIA ... AND IN THE strategic partnership at the macro decades (1950-2010). level translates into deeper economic DEVELOPING CHINESE Currier’s expertise in Chinese foreign ECONOMY AND THE policy, combined with Tochkov’s in Asian integration between the two countries IMPLICATIONS THAT economics, provides for a deeper analysis only if these border effects decline in the of the Sino-Russian partnership than near future.” WOULD HAVE IN THE is found in current literature. “We’re Changes in the intensity of the Sino- UNITED STATES.” examining 60 years of history to give us Russian partnership will have immediate a sense of how they align politically and implications for Northeast and Central Carrie Liu Currier, associate professor of economically,” Currier said. “The past Asia, where the two countries are deeply political science and director of Asian Studies helps us inform the future.” involved, he noted. The two professors theorize that industrialization and modernize the changes in Sino-Russian relations mirror BOOMING INTEREST People’s Republic of China. the degree to which the two countries are TCU faculty members hope their new “The Soviet ambassador or Soviet in sync — not just on the economic front, Sino-Russian research will elevate the diplomat would count how many times but in political ideology as well. Discord university’s Asian Studies program and he heard ‘thank you’ to the Soviet Union in both areas has triggered years of further the boom in enrollment. for economic help,” Tochkov said. “For animosity or serious conflicts bordering “There’s been a lot of increasing example, he would say that ‘In a speech on war. interest in Asia across the country, and that lasted for 40 minutes, the Chinese Times of friendship and cooperation in the developing Chinese economy leader mentioned the Soviet Union only are marked by harmony in political and three times,’ or, ‘He would not mention economic views — as today’s partnership and the implications that would have the economic help we provided at all.’ ” reflects. “Right now, the political and in the United States — as well as for the A snub was relayed back to the economic ideologies in Russia and China global economy,” Currier said. “When Soviet Foreign Ministry, Tochkov are aligned,” Tochkov said. “Both have I first took over the program [in 2006], said. “They said it is very sad that our more or less authoritarian political we had six students and had to recruit Chinese comrades were not expressing systems coupled with a state-capitalist really hard. Now we have no problem enough or sufficiently often enough the economic model, which suggests maintaining 16 to 20 students for an economic help that the Soviet Union was that the partnership between them is interdisciplinary minor.” providing.” strengthening.” The enrollment surge is a reflection of The sensitivity shown by the Soviets the changing tide, Currier said, “realizing was “constant, appearing in almost every LESSONS FOR POLICYMAKERS that to do business globally, you have to document” from that era, he added. Historical patterns will be used to know something about China.” “That is an indication that there was a create a novel analytical model that Currier and Tochkov plan to integrate worsening [relationship] between the could predict the course of Sino-Russian their research into the classroom, with two countries.” relations, Tochkov and Currier said. students participating in the empirical Such a model could shed light on the analysis. FICKLE FRIENDSHIP interplay between political and economic A new research initiative at TCU ideologies, and also gauge the “border “One of the great things about TCU explores the ever-changing relationship effects” that impact trade. is that when the faculty has an active between Russia and China — two “These give us an idea about the costs research agenda, students get the full superpowers with growing muscle in the involved when goods cross the border and extent of that,” Currier said. “As we global economy and world affairs. represent the actual hurdles in the trade conduct the research, they actually learn “It’s not the kind of alliance that we and investment relations,” Tochkov said. about the process, the difficulties, and the often see from a Western point of view,” Today, the border effects between political and economic challenges of doing Currier said. “Both [China and Russia] China and Russia are relatively high, this kind of research in these countries.” 28 TCU MAGAZINE | Winter 2018 SUPERPOWERS | Feature FRIENDSHIP, CONFLICT AND CONSEQUENCES A Q&A with Carrie Liu Currier and Kiril Tochkov What impact could the partnership stability in their own countries, and their concern in Russia [and globally] with regard between China and Russia have on the approach to foreign policy is one that to how the Chinese do business and the United States and its interests abroad? clearly reflects their own changing massive influx of goods coming from China. TOCHKOV: During the past 70 years, self-interest. … In many respects, the things When push comes to shove, both states China and Russia have emerged as the key they have in common involve a distrust of know the partnership is volatile. competitors of the United States on the the United States and dislike for U.S. world stage. During the Cold War, the two policies/intervention abroad. The real TOCHKOV: The lack of trust between the countries, and especially their alliance, threat the Sino-Russian alliance poses is a two countries is a major stumbling block represented a major military and ideologi- sense of growing economic strength for deepening economic ties. China has the cal threat to America and its global independent of the West and a counterbal- financial funds, the labor and the technical strategic interests. Since the 1990s, the ancing force to Western interests globally. know-how to foster economic development geopolitical rivalry has been comple- in Russia, especially in the economically mented by economic concerns as global- What are some of the key differences in depressed regions of Eastern Siberia and what China and Russia want from each ization deepened trade and investment the Russian Far East. However, the Russian ties. China has turned gradually into an other? TOCHKOV: China remains fixated on government is very reluctant to encourage economic superpower that dominates such cooperation because it does not want manufacturing and trade, while an economic issues and is interested in to turn Russia into a cheap supplier of increasingly authoritarian Russia has been expanding its trade with and investment in commodities to China. trying to revive its military might through Russia. In contrast, the Russian govern- In addition, Russians are fearful that involvement in conflicts around the world. ment has been preoccupied with national China can establish its economic domi- Currently, we are standing at the security concerns and has been keen on nance in border regions that have been threshold of a new era marked by a restoring its global clout on the interna- traditionally part of the Chinese empire. As growing clash between the U.S. and the tional stage at the expense of reforming its a result, Chinese workers and companies strategic alliance of Russia and China. domestic economy and making it more are facing various hurdles when trying to Trade with China is often blamed for the competitive. Despite a slowdown, China’s do business in Russia. loss of manufacturing jobs and the increase economy continues to grow, creating — Mary Ann Kurker in the income inequality in the U.S. Russia demand for natural resources. Russia has has emerged again as one of the main not been able to diversify its economy, geostrategic threats to the U.S. in a new which still largely depends on exports of version of the Cold War.

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