sharekhan commodities buzz

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Indian sugar output is down by 3% to 24.5MMT

$302.50 per tonne from Glencore. The wheat shipment Trade idea: Buy cotton, sugar and chana on dips is for August 1-15, 2013.

Grain • The Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board Wheat (AHDB), USA, states that the winter wheat crop development is late compared with the previous year. • A flat tone was witnessed at the futures market on Spring wheat is emerging and most crops have account of thin trading activity while cash markets developed one to three leaves per plant. remained steady. At Lawrence road market of Delhi, the wheat mill quality traded at Rs1,445-1,465 a • Ukraine has exported 20.8MMT of grains for the 2012- quintal. 13 marketing year. • AT CBOT, corn and wheat were headed for advances • Food Corporation of India (FCI) has invited the financial on slowed and delayed planting along with bids for sale of wheat crop for the 2011-12 year. The deterioration of crop conditions on account wet base price of the wheat to be exported under Open weather. General Licence (OGL) from Punjab (409,826 tonne) and Haryana (540,000 tonne) will be Rs1,484 per quintal. • The local wheat purchases in Egypt rose more than seven-fold and purchase of local wheat since the • The government agencies have procured around 18.9MT beginning of the season reached 284,000 metric tonne of wheat so far in this season. The 8.8MT have been (MT) compared with 36,203MT over the corresponding procured in Punjab, 4.2MT in Madhya Pradesh and period in last year. Egypt’s self-sufficiency in wheat 5.1MT in Haryana. supplies increased to 65% this year compared with 45% • The Indian government will review the minimum export in previous year. price (MEP) of wheat to boost the export. Currently, • CONAB said that Brazil sold 39,956 tonne of wheat from the MEP of wheat is fixed at Rs14,840MT ($274) and is its state stockpiles and it would auction more wheat $30 per tonne more expensive than supplies from the (32,044 tonne) on May 3, 2013. Black Sea region. • MMTC has invited export tender for 1 lakh tonne of Outlook: Range-bound to steady movement likely to be milling wheat for shipment during June 1-30 from witnessed in the coming days. Kakinada port. Maize • PEC has also invited export tender for 1.1 lakh tonne • A weak tone witnessed in the futures market while of milling wheat for shipment during June 1-20 from price remained unchanged in the cash markets. Krishnapatnam, Kandla and Gangavaram ports. • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange of Argentina has kept its • STC also invited export tender for 1 lakh tonne of wheat corn forecast at 24.8MMT. (60,000 tonne through Mundra port and 40,000 tonne through Chennai port).The shipments from Chennai are • As per the USDA, the weekly US corn net sales during set for June 1-June 25, while exports from Mundra are April 18-25, 2013 were reported at 329,300MT and were for June 5- 25. up by 5% from the previous week. • Jordan’s state agency purchased tender for 50,000MT • Commonwealth of Australia (CBA) said that the of wheat from EU countries, Russia and Ukraine at slow pace of the US corn seeding raises concerns for For Private Circulation only

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2013-2014 production prospects. Moreover, they also • The AHDB, USA, states that about 20% of planned winter expect that the US corn planted area could fall 1.5% rapeseed crops weren’t planted or failed during the (1.5m acre) below the USDA’s March estimate if the winter. Moreover, rapeseed development is delayed, seeded area remains below 75% complete by the third with most crops starting to flower. Pigeons have week of May and the US corn crop would come in at damaged some crops, and diseases, including light leaf 13.4 billion bushels under that scenario. spot and phoma, also appear to be widespread in farms. • The USDA said that the US farmers sowed 5% of corn • Executive from OSK Investment Bank said that crops as of April 28, trailing the five-year average pace improving rival soybean crop prospects in South America of 31%. The expected heavy rainfall in the coming days and improving CPO output in Southeast Asia provide may further slow the sowing in the regions. the catalyst for the downturn in palm oil. • As per Safras and Mercado, the soybean harvest • Safras and Mercado estimated the Brazilian 2012-13 completed 94% of the estimated area as on 26 April corn harvest at 78.42MT, higher from 72.70MT last year. 2013 from 86% in the previous week. The farmers have • Lanworth improved its production outlook for the US reportedly sold 66% of their soybean crop. corn output in 2013-14 to 13.930 billion bushels due to Outlook: Soybean prices are likely to bounce back in short term. better yield expectations on recent rainfall. Edible oils (include- ref. soy oil, crude palm oil) Outlook: Range-bound to steady movement likely to be witnessed in the coming days. • The domestic edible oil futures markets witnessed firm tone on renewed buying.

Pulses • OCBC Bank said that palm oil is likely to stay soft at least for the next six months till end of Q3FY2013 due • Chana maintained weak tone at futures. to seasonally higher palm oil production in key • As of March 31, 2013, the Canadian chana stock is producing countries like Indonesia and . totalled at 111,000 tonne compared with 47,000 tonne Moreover, the ballooning CPO inventories seen in in the same corresponding period during last year. Malaysia and potentially lower soybean oil prices due to record harvests from South America and the USA • Desi chana moved down by Rs25-50 per quintal at many may also inject further downside risk to prices in the mandis of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh coming months. and Uttar Pradesh on fresh physical demand against marginal movement at closed on future exchanges. At • The cut its previous CPO average price Mumbai, the Australia chana was offered steady at forecast of 3,000ringgit/MT to 2500-2,600 ringgit per Rs3,400-3,425 per quintal on dull trade. Russian chana tonne for the year 2014-15. The firm remains optimistic was quoted higher at Rs25 to Rs3,500 per quintal on of a CPO price recovery in Q2FY2013 as the stockpile is declining sharply amid expectation of lower fresh trade at Mumbai pulses market. The Australia production in Indonesia. chana crop is offered at a steady $680-690/MT CNF for Nhava Sheva port for April-May shipment. • According to Oil World, South America will export a record soybean in May month. Brazil will ship 6.4MT in Outlook: Chana prices would dwindle further by Rs100 May against 3.5MT in March and 4.43MT in April. per quintal in the coming weeks but on short term it would Moreover, Argentina will export 1.6MT in May. surge on festival demand. • STC issue import tender for 30,000 tonne of RBD palmolein for May-June 2013. Oilseeds and Oil Complex • Decline in crude oil also weighs on the palm oil prices Oil seeds (include- soybean, RM seed, castor seed) due to reducing the appeal of vegetable oils as • A weak tone witnessed in soybean on rise in margin .A feedstock for biofuels. weak tone featured in RM seed. • As per Intertek, Malaysian palm oil products export • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange of Argentina kept its for April fell by 4.3% to 13.1 lakh tonne from March on soybean forecast at 48.5MMT. Meanwhile, the exchange lower buying from Chinese importers. Meanwhile, India also revealed that 6% of crop is being harvested against and subcontinents imports are up by 37% to 285,270 56% harvested by last week. tonne compared with the previous month. • The US exporters sold 290,000MT of soybeans to China Outlook: Prices are likely to witness a weak movement in in the 12 months starting September 1. the coming days.

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Kapas (Cotton) • Indian sugar output is down by 3% to 24.5MMT during • Mixed tone witnessed at futures market. Meanwhile, October, 2012 to April, 2013. In this period, sugar output spot markets remained unchanged on thin trading in Tamil Nadu is down by 1% to 1.57MMT while in activities. Karnataka and Maharashtra, the sugar output is down to 3.36MMT and 7.97MMT in the reported period. • The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) However, sugar production in Uttar Pradesh is up by said in a statement that the world production was 7% to 7.43MMT in the corresponding period. predicted to drop by another 6% to 24.6MMT during 2013-14. From 2012-13 to 2013-14, cotton production • Brazil exported 1.722MMT of sugar in April 2013, the in China and the USA is each forecast to fall by 700,000 first month of the new 2013/14 season. While the same tonne to 6.7MMT and 3MMT respectively, and production being down modestly from 1.981MMT exported in in India is also forecast to decline by 170,000 tonne to March. It is up from the 558,400 tonne exported in the 5.7MMT as farmers continue to switch out cotton for same month in 2012 and is the highest monthly total more profitable alternatives. China’s production for April month. decline is also attributed to labour shortages as farm • Thailand, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter workers migrate to cities searching for urban may produce 10.1MMT of sugar in the upcoming employment. However, global cotton mill use was rising crushing season that started in November 15, 2013 from at an estimated 7% from 22.1MMT in last season to an all-time high cane output of 100MT. In 2012-13, the 23.7MMT in 2012-13. Mill use in China is falling to an country produced 9MMT of sugar from a cane harvest estimated 8.3MT in 2012-13 as the national cotton of 90MMT. Meanwhile, the recent estimate does not policy remains unclear and another drop of 3 lakh tonne surpass the record sugar production of 10.2MMT during to 8.0MT in 2013-14 is expected, the lowest in the past 2011-12 (Source- Thailand Cane and Sugar Board). 10 years. Meanwhile, world cotton stocks were set to • According to the Williams Servicos Maritimos Ltd, the rise to 18MMT by July 2014, which would represent amount of sugar awaiting loading at ports in top approximately nine months of world mill use. producer Brazil rose by 7.6% over the past week. The • In the week to April 25, the US export sales of upland 896,576MT of sugar were waiting to be loaded onto cotton rose 32% from a week earlier. China, the world’s ships at the ports of Recife, Maceio, Paranagua and biggest user, led the purchases followed by Vietnam Santos against 833,588MT in the previous week. and Mexico. • Tunisia buys 28,000MT of raw sugar for delivery in • China National Grain and Oils Information Center said September from Bunge at $429 per MT (C&F Price). that government bought 102.558MMT of new-crop corn • Full pace sugarcane sowing was reported in Uttar as of April 25, 2013. About 24.77MMT of new-crop corn Pradesh. was purchased from the northeastern producing area. The market participants are expecting the further • At Delhi, the spot sugar was offered at Rs3,250-3,340 purchasing till end of May. a quintal. • The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) started offloading • Gur chaku was offered down Rs10-15 to Rs1,050-1,070 the cotton stocks with it in the domestic market on per 40kg at Muzaffarnagar. Friday. It offered 25,000 bales for sale through e- Outlook: Prices are likely to trade firm in near short term. auction and received a bid for 1,000 bales at floor price. The floor price was slightly higher than the market Spices price. Pepper • Higher US export sales continue to lift cotton at the international market. • Pepper witnessed a flat tone. Outlook: Prices may remain steady in the domestic • Members of Indian Pepper Association are likely to the market. President of Indian Spices Board on April 29 regarding the launch of pepper contracts at NCDEX. They will request to him to talk to FMC Chairman on this topic. Sugar & Gur • No new contracts after May are launched. • Sugar witnessed weak tone in futures and cash markets while gur also remain weak at futures. • In the international market, the Indian black pepper was quoted at $6,800 per tonne CNF New York, while

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May shipment offered at $6,700 per tonne CNF. Black Cardamom pepper Vietnam Austa offered at $6,500 per tonne CNF • Cardamom market witnessed weak tone. Prices closed and Brazil B Austa offered at $6,475 per tonne CNF for below the level of Rs800 per quintal. April and May shipment. • Total arrivals and sales during the current season from Jeera August 1, 2012 to March 27, 2013 were at 10,146 tonne • Futures markets witnessed firm tone on short covering. (15,385 tonne) and 9,645 (14,922 tonne) respectively (Source - CPMC). • Domestic crop harvesting is almost completed and new crop arrivals weigh on the prices. • The market participants revealed that unfavourable weather affect the crop and the output is likely to be • Cumin seed sowing in Turkey and Syria has started, reduced by 35-45%. Moreover, they are expecting but sowing report will be out after one week. However, 17,000 tonne output this year as compared with 30,000 total cumin seed production in the country may be tonne in the last year. around 37-40 lakh bags (per bag = 55kg). Cumin seed carry forward stock may be around 5 lakh bags. Chilli • In , 1% Indian cumin seed offered at $2,450 • Futures market remained weak. per tonne FOB Mumbai. • Completion of harvesting of chilli crop in India reported. Turmeric • In Andhra Pradesh, red chilli production expected • Futures market remained range-bound. around 472,500 tonne during the current year, after some crop damage due to bad weather condition. But, • Traders are expecting downfall of turmeric to 6,250 in Madhya Pradesh higher production expected as levels at NCDEX. compared with the last year. • Good-quality new crop and comfortable stock position • Thin buying interest also weighed on the prices. in the domestic markets may further weigh on the prices. • Prices are likely to remain weak to range bound in this • As per trade sources, area under turmeric reduced by month on new crop arrivals. about 20% in 2012-13 in India. The national-level production is expected to be 45-50 lakh bags with 37 Coriander lakh bags (80kg) are as carry forward stock. • Coriander witnessed a steady tone. • The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre states that • However, lower production would support the prices the prices will be moving around Rs7,500-8,500 per in long term. quintal till May, June 2013 and then the price movement will be based on the monsoon predictions.

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Weather Report (Source: India Meteorological Department, ICAR)

• IMD forecast that India will have 98% of its normal Agricultural activities (long-period average) rainfall, with an error margin • Dry weather prevailed in then Kerala state during of 5% (+ or -). past few days. Irrigation in coconut and banana field, Cumulative seasonal rainfall (March 1 to April 24, and insecticide application were in progress. Mild 2013) intensity of mealy bug, red palm weevil, rhinoceros • The cumulative seasonal rainfall during March 1 to beetle, leaf eating caterpillar, bud rot disease and April 24 2013 for the country as a whole was 39.1mm, root wilt disease in coconut, sigatoka disease in which is -34% below normal rainfall of 59.3mm. banana, aphids and white fly in vegetables, tea mosquito bugs in cashew, blast disease and sheath rot in • Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, the rainfall paddy and pseudostem borer in banana were noticed. was excess/normal in 24 divisions, deficient/scanty in 21 divisions and no rainfall in 1 division. • Dry weather prevailed in Chhattisgarh state during past few days. Irrigation in summer rice, moong, Outlook for subsequent days from May 2-9, 2013 maize, groundnut, vegetables and cucurbits crops, • Rain/thundershowers would occur over Jammu & need based application of insecticides in paddy and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, parts of vegetables against stem borer, aphids, thrips, fruit Maharashtra, north eastern states, parts of Andhra and shoot borer and other pests, intercultural Pradesh, entire Kerala and western and southern operation and weeding in sugarcane, field parts of Tamil Nadu. preparation for sowing of maize for cobs and summer • Thunder squall would occur at one or two places vegetables were in progress. Very low intensity of over West Bengal and Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Dragon fly and aphids in vegetables, spodoptera, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and fruit borer, leaf miner, Jassid leaf spot and leaf Tripura, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and currling in solanaceous vegetables, stem borer in Kerala. rice were noticed.

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Annexure

NCDEX Futures as on April 03, 2013

Commodity Price Expiry PCP Open High Low Close Volume OI unit Date (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (in MT) (in MT) BARLEY Rs/ql 20-May-13 1,349.0 1,350.0 1,359.0 1,331.0 1,349.5 6100 9200 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 1,378.5 1,384.5 1,390.0 1,368.0 1,380.5 7310 23640 CASTOR SEED NEW Rs/ql 20-May-13 3,304.0 3,319.0 3,344.0 3,262.0 3,333.0 42420 54190 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 3,404.0 3,415.0 3,450.0 3,386.0 3,439.0 62560 131110 CHANA Rs/ql 20-May-13 3,472.0 3,468.0 3,477.0 3,420.0 3,445.0 47180 61390 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 3,548.0 3,541.0 3,554.0 3,498.0 3,525.0 82910 110230 RED CHILLI Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 6,232.0 6,238.0 6,254.0 6,038.0 6,068.0 5840 20080 Rs/ql 19-Jul-13 6,372.0 6,382.0 6,390.0 6,164.0 6,200.0 1400 2960 COTTON SEED OIL Rs/ql 20-May-13 1,407.0 1,397.0 1,439.0 1,397.0 1,434.0 59700 52660 CAKE AKOLA Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 1,447.0 1,442.0 1,482.0 1,442.0 1,477.0 102390 178220 COTTON 29 MM RS/BALE 18-Oct-13 18,530.0 18,200.0 18,200.0 18,200.0 18,670.0 1 1 RS/BALE 20-Nov-13 18,670.0 - - - 18,800.0 0 0 CORIANDER Rs/ql 20-May-13 6,724.0 6,780.0 6,780.0 6,621.0 6,737.0 17570 14470 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 6,826.0 6,801.0 6,875.0 6,729.0 6,834.0 17130 27260 GUR NEW Rs/40kg 19-Jul-13 1,291.5 1,294.0 1,299.0 1,288.5 1,292.0 5160 10540 Rs/40kg 20-Sep-13 1,345.0 1,346.0 1,350.0 1,341.5 1,346.0 1240 4140 JEERA Rs/ql 20-May-13 12,767.5 12,850.0 12,945.0 12,790.0 12,862.5 5967 5067 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 12,922.5 12,940.0 13,100.0 12,922.5 13,035.0 6327 12876 KAPAS Rs/20kg 28-Feb-14 1,021.0 - - - 1,021.0 0 7 Rs/20kg 31-Mar-14 1,032.0 1,024.0 1,024.0 1,024.0 1,024.0 1 1 MAIZE RABI Rs/ql 20-May-13 1,146.0 1,143.0 1,165.0 1,139.0 1,150.0 7500 12290 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 1,168.0 1,171.0 1,171.0 1,160.0 1,166.0 6140 45720 POTATO Rs/ql 20-May-13 966.0 969.0 969.0 944.0 956.0 190 1510 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 967.0 955.0 955.0 941.0 948.0 100 710 PEPPER Rs/ql 20-May-13 35,640.0 35,600.0 35,770.0 35,570.0 35,690.0 130 710 20-May-13 3,420.0 3,430.0 3,436.0 3,396.0 3,415.0 42580 52450 RAPE MUSTARD SEEDS Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 3,472.0 3,485.0 3,487.0 3,451.0 3,469.0 62600 92660 Rs/ql 20-May-13 34,650.0 - - - 34,130.0 0 0 SOYAMEAL Rs/MT 20-Jun-13 34,890.0 - - - 34,370.0 0 0 Rs/MT 31-Oct-13 997.5 - - - 1,002.5 0 0 SHANKARKAPAS Rs/20kgs 31-Dec-13 1,011.5 - - - 1,016.0 0 0 Rs/20kgs 20-May-13 2,935.0 2,949.0 2,950.0 2,923.0 2,930.0 7280 29690 SUGARM200 Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 2,962.0 2,967.0 2,970.0 2,949.0 2,957.0 6750 31270 Rs/ql 20-May-13 3,916.5 3,904.5 3,969.0 3,894.0 3,950.5 31800 34360 SOYBEAN Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 3,797.0 3,804.0 3,886.0 3,791.0 3,866.5 77010 79670 Rs/ql 20-May-13 716.2 720.0 721.8 715.6 719.1 44980 66250 SOY OIL Rs/10kg 20-Jun-13 685.2 686.7 690.0 682.7 689.4 77640 81890 Rs/10kgs 20-May-13 6,290.0 6,340.0 6,350.0 6,254.0 6,294.0 11415 10135 TURMERIC Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 6,406.0 6,442.0 6,460.0 6,354.0 6,408.0 10495 23715 Rs/ql 19-Jul-13 1,536.0 1,536.0 1,536.0 1,536.0 1,536.0 10 1040 WHEAT Delhi Rs/ql 20-Aug-13 1,561.0 - - - 1,560.0 0 10 Rs/ql 20-May-13 1,484.0 1,487.0 1,488.0 1,474.0 1,487.0 2460 8910 WHEAT Rs/ql 20-Jun-13 1,511.0 1,510.0 1,514.0 1,507.0 1,512.0 1750 22970 Rs/ql 20-May-13 1,349.0 1,350.0 1,359.0 1,331.0 1,349.5 6100 9200

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Annexure

MCX Futures as on April 03, 2013

Commodity Expiry Open High Low Close PCP Volume OI symbol month (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (in lots) (in lots) CARDAMOM 15-May-13 765.2 781.0 754.4 765.3 776.7 4596 1847 15-Jun-13 782.0 790.8 773.5 783.2 792.8 1583 1336 COTTON 31-May-13 18000.0 18260.0 18000.0 18200.0 17900.0 1665 6117 28-Jun-13 18270.0 18470.0 18230.0 18430.0 18110.0 1149 3310 CPO 31-May-13 456.0 456.2 451.1 454.7 454.7 1376 3642 29-Jun-13 454.1 454.5 450.9 453.8 453.3 394 2274 KAPAS 31-Mar-14 1015.0 1025.0 1011.1 1022.4 1010.8 38 98 30-Apr-14 1035.0 1046.0 1031.5 1043.1 1029.4 87 365 KAPASKHALI 31-May-13 1420.0 1440.0 1414.5 1435.5 1419.5 903 1841 29-Jun-13 1466.5 1485.5 1463.0 1482.0 1460.5 517 997 MENTHAOIL 31-May-13 919.0 932.8 898.6 904.0 919.1 5066 2660 29-Jun-13 915.0 927.6 895.2 900.1 913.7 893 874 POTATO 15-May-13 982.0 1000.0 982.0 998.5 982.7 45 203 15-Jun-13 970.0 977.9 963.3 973.0 966.0 126 547

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