sharekhan commodities buzz Visit us at www.sharekhan.com May 06, 2013 Indian sugar output is down by 3% to 24.5MMT $302.50 per tonne from Glencore. The wheat shipment Trade idea: Buy cotton, sugar and chana on dips is for August 1-15, 2013. Grain • The Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board Wheat (AHDB), USA, states that the winter wheat crop development is late compared with the previous year. • A flat tone was witnessed at the futures market on Spring wheat is emerging and most crops have account of thin trading activity while cash markets developed one to three leaves per plant. remained steady. At Lawrence road market of Delhi, the wheat mill quality traded at Rs1,445-1,465 a • Ukraine has exported 20.8MMT of grains for the 2012- quintal. 13 marketing year. • AT CBOT, corn and wheat were headed for advances • Food Corporation of India (FCI) has invited the financial on slowed and delayed planting along with bids for sale of wheat crop for the 2011-12 year. The deterioration of crop conditions on account wet base price of the wheat to be exported under Open weather. General Licence (OGL) from Punjab (409,826 tonne) and Haryana (540,000 tonne) will be Rs1,484 per quintal. • The local wheat purchases in Egypt rose more than seven-fold and purchase of local wheat since the • The government agencies have procured around 18.9MT beginning of the season reached 284,000 metric tonne of wheat so far in this season. The 8.8MT have been (MT) compared with 36,203MT over the corresponding procured in Punjab, 4.2MT in Madhya Pradesh and period in last year. Egypt’s self-sufficiency in wheat 5.1MT in Haryana. supplies increased to 65% this year compared with 45% • The Indian government will review the minimum export in previous year. price (MEP) of wheat to boost the export. Currently, • CONAB said that Brazil sold 39,956 tonne of wheat from the MEP of wheat is fixed at Rs14,840MT ($274) and is its state stockpiles and it would auction more wheat $30 per tonne more expensive than supplies from the (32,044 tonne) on May 3, 2013. Black Sea region. • MMTC has invited export tender for 1 lakh tonne of Outlook: Range-bound to steady movement likely to be milling wheat for shipment during June 1-30 from witnessed in the coming days. Kakinada port. Maize • PEC has also invited export tender for 1.1 lakh tonne • A weak tone witnessed in the futures market while of milling wheat for shipment during June 1-20 from price remained unchanged in the cash markets. Krishnapatnam, Kandla and Gangavaram ports. • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange of Argentina has kept its • STC also invited export tender for 1 lakh tonne of wheat corn forecast at 24.8MMT. (60,000 tonne through Mundra port and 40,000 tonne through Chennai port).The shipments from Chennai are • As per the USDA, the weekly US corn net sales during set for June 1-June 25, while exports from Mundra are April 18-25, 2013 were reported at 329,300MT and were for June 5- 25. up by 5% from the previous week. • Jordan’s state agency purchased tender for 50,000MT • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) said that the of wheat from EU countries, Russia and Ukraine at slow pace of the US corn seeding raises concerns for For Private Circulation only Sharekhan Ltd, Regd Add: 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos. 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Moreover, they also • The AHDB, USA, states that about 20% of planned winter expect that the US corn planted area could fall 1.5% rapeseed crops weren’t planted or failed during the (1.5m acre) below the USDA’s March estimate if the winter. Moreover, rapeseed development is delayed, seeded area remains below 75% complete by the third with most crops starting to flower. Pigeons have week of May and the US corn crop would come in at damaged some crops, and diseases, including light leaf 13.4 billion bushels under that scenario. spot and phoma, also appear to be widespread in farms. • The USDA said that the US farmers sowed 5% of corn • Executive from OSK Investment Bank said that crops as of April 28, trailing the five-year average pace improving rival soybean crop prospects in South America of 31%. The expected heavy rainfall in the coming days and improving CPO output in Southeast Asia provide may further slow the sowing in the regions. the catalyst for the downturn in palm oil. • As per Safras and Mercado, the soybean harvest • Safras and Mercado estimated the Brazilian 2012-13 completed 94% of the estimated area as on 26 April corn harvest at 78.42MT, higher from 72.70MT last year. 2013 from 86% in the previous week. The farmers have • Lanworth improved its production outlook for the US reportedly sold 66% of their soybean crop. corn output in 2013-14 to 13.930 billion bushels due to Outlook: Soybean prices are likely to bounce back in short term. better yield expectations on recent rainfall. Edible oils (include- ref. soy oil, crude palm oil) Outlook: Range-bound to steady movement likely to be witnessed in the coming days. • The domestic edible oil futures markets witnessed firm tone on renewed buying. Pulses • OCBC Bank said that palm oil is likely to stay soft at least for the next six months till end of Q3FY2013 due • Chana maintained weak tone at futures. to seasonally higher palm oil production in key • As of March 31, 2013, the Canadian chana stock is producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia. totalled at 111,000 tonne compared with 47,000 tonne Moreover, the ballooning CPO inventories seen in in the same corresponding period during last year. Malaysia and potentially lower soybean oil prices due to record harvests from South America and the USA • Desi chana moved down by Rs25-50 per quintal at many may also inject further downside risk to prices in the mandis of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh coming months. and Uttar Pradesh on fresh physical demand against marginal movement at closed on future exchanges. At • The Maybank cut its previous CPO average price Mumbai, the Australia chana was offered steady at forecast of 3,000ringgit/MT to 2500-2,600 ringgit per Rs3,400-3,425 per quintal on dull trade. Russian chana tonne for the year 2014-15. The firm remains optimistic was quoted higher at Rs25 to Rs3,500 per quintal on of a CPO price recovery in Q2FY2013 as the stockpile is declining sharply amid expectation of lower fresh trade at Mumbai pulses market. The Australia production in Indonesia. chana crop is offered at a steady $680-690/MT CNF for Nhava Sheva port for April-May shipment. • According to Oil World, South America will export a record soybean in May month. Brazil will ship 6.4MT in Outlook: Chana prices would dwindle further by Rs100 May against 3.5MT in March and 4.43MT in April. per quintal in the coming weeks but on short term it would Moreover, Argentina will export 1.6MT in May. surge on festival demand. • STC issue import tender for 30,000 tonne of RBD palmolein for May-June 2013. Oilseeds and Oil Complex • Decline in crude oil also weighs on the palm oil prices Oil seeds (include- soybean, RM seed, castor seed) due to reducing the appeal of vegetable oils as • A weak tone witnessed in soybean on rise in margin .A feedstock for biofuels. weak tone featured in RM seed. • As per Intertek, Malaysian palm oil products export • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange of Argentina kept its for April fell by 4.3% to 13.1 lakh tonne from March on soybean forecast at 48.5MMT. Meanwhile, the exchange lower buying from Chinese importers. Meanwhile, India also revealed that 6% of crop is being harvested against and subcontinents imports are up by 37% to 285,270 56% harvested by last week. tonne compared with the previous month. • The US exporters sold 290,000MT of soybeans to China Outlook: Prices are likely to witness a weak movement in in the 12 months starting September 1. the coming days. Commodity Buzz (agri-commodities) 2 May 06, 2013 For Private Circulation only sharekhan commodities buzz Kapas (Cotton) • Indian sugar output is down by 3% to 24.5MMT during • Mixed tone witnessed at futures market. Meanwhile, October, 2012 to April, 2013. In this period, sugar output spot markets remained unchanged on thin trading in Tamil Nadu is down by 1% to 1.57MMT while in activities. Karnataka and Maharashtra, the sugar output is down to 3.36MMT and 7.97MMT in the reported period. • The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) However, sugar production in Uttar Pradesh is up by said in a statement that the world production was 7% to 7.43MMT in the corresponding period.