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A presentation for the IEEE based on a report by: Building Systems Sub-industries Lighting Access Security Energy LightFair ISC CCTV Life Safety FMA FM NFPA WEEC Fire Home & Building Building Networks ASHRAE Automation & Controls Mgt COMDEX Wireless AHR Expo HVAC IT Finally ready for the Mass Market? Telecom PA LonWorks LonWorld NSCA by Wayne Caswell Video BACnet Retail [email protected] Training Audio EIB Hospitals Sales Schools http://www.automatedbuildings.com/news/ C O N S U L T I N G mar03/articles/builconn/bcon.htm Verticals Vendors C O N S U L T I N G Digital Home Applications Lighting PC Network Information Internet Solutions Experience Lab Comfort, Energy Access Hotel / Living Room Convenience, Kitchen Garage / Car Security HVAC Phone Hospital Room Retail Café NW Operations Ctr Irrigation Audio IPTV, WebSphere, RFID, Speech, Security Video Embedded, Location Tracking, Entertainment RSS, Pen-based, Mobile Devices C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G 30-year Digital Home Mass Market Households Technology Timeline vs. High-end New Homes HomePNA founded HPNA 3.0 CEBus EIA-600 std HPnP ENDS A Wide CHASM separates Today’s Home Controls Niche LonWorks EIA-709 std SCP ENDS from Mass Market Growth HPnP begun CEBus ENDS Powerline IEEE 1394 std HomeRF ENDS Pragmatics want Conservatives avoid Wireless VESA HNC formed HomeRF 2.0 evolutionary change risk and are price 802.11n Phoneline DAVIC formed OSGi and “safe” choices sensitive 802.11e Visionaries seek CEBus IS- 60 standard Bluetooth UWB competitive advantage 802.11 WG founded 802.11g through revolutionary Zigbee Relative Relative Market Size HomeRF WG founded DOCSIS 1.0 breakthrough 802.11i Japan’s HomeBus HomePlug 1.0 Enthusiasts Skeptics DOCSIS 2.0 DOCSIS 2.0 maintain the Echelon founded UPnP try any new CHASM HomePlug status quo Firewire invented 802.11b, 802.11a BPL technology CEBus kicks off HomePNA 2.0 Z-Wave ECHO IV X-10 HomeRF 1.0 Insteon 84 94 2000 68 72 74 76 78 82 86 88 92 96 98 02 04 06 08 1970 1980 1990 Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Source: Parks Associates’ Research © 2004 Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G Source: Crossing the Chasm , by Geoffrey Moore Mass Market Households PC, Internet & Home Network vs. High-end New Homes Penetration (Millions of U.S. Households) 100 PC Households (#M) 105.5 M New Homes Valued at $500,000+ are just 0.065% of the Total Opportunity. Internet Households (#M) ~76M Occupied U.S. Households Data Network Households (#M) (2000 Census) 75 Broadband Households (#M) ~71M 2/3 Owned 1.33 M 50 ~39M 1/3 Rental New Homes 25 ~23M 1.33 M New Homes 68 K New Homes Millions of U.S. Households . Sold in 2003 sold in 2003 worth >$500K 0 Total U.S. Housing Market (#M) New Home Construction 2002 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p 2005p 2006p 2007p 2008p New Home Construction 2002 New Home Value >$500,000 Source : Parks Associates' Research and Forecasts © 2004 Parks Associates Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Home Builders C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G Structured Wiring Technology Amenities (for Satellite TV, Telephone, Ethernet, 1394) Offered & Installed Distribution Hub / Panel • Demarcation point for telecommunications and video services. Percentage of Home Builders Offering Products; • Often includes Ethernet routers and video amplifiers. % of Homes being Installed with Amenities in 2003 • Cost: about ¼ of the entire system 90 80 Category 5 UTP cables 70 • Cat.5 unshielded twisted pairs support voice/data transmission up to 100 Mbps. Cat.5e supports 1 Gbps Ethernet. 60 • Cost: ~$100 per 1,000 feet versus $80 for older Cat.2 cable. 50 RG-6 Coax Cables 40 • Quad-shielded and most effective media for video distribution 30 of hundreds of channels (satellite). 20 • Cost: ~$350 per 1,000 feet 10 Percentage of Builders/Homes (%) 0 Optical Fiber (optional) Structured Wiring Security Systems Intercoms Vacuum Systems Multi-room Audio • One pair has more capacity than 1,400 pairs of copper. (n=113) (n=182) (n=149) (n=189) (n=121) • Cost: about $150 per foot % offering 68 79 55 68 60 Wall Outlets % Homes with 59 67 45 41 44 • Can accommodate multiple services (data, voice, and video) Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey © Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G Entertainment Amenities Home Builders’ Attitudes Offered & Installed about offering NEW Products Percentage of Home Builders Offering Products; We typically look for new products that can % of Homes Being Installed with Amenities in 2003 62% 80 differentiate us in the market. 70 We are cautious about offering new products and wait until we have customers asking us for a 22% 60 new technology. 50 Offering new products is not a priority for us; we 12% 40 wait until the market dictates we need to. 30 Anything other than basic infrastructure is 20 2% beyond the scope of our homes. % Respondents (n=317) 10 PercentageBuilders/Homes of (%) 0 Entertainment Center Home Theater Pre- Dedicated Home Media Room (n=109) They sold $11 Billion in technology products in 2004 (est. $12.2B in 2005) (n=113) Wire (n=115) Theater (n=109) They represent a Formidable Channel, but only for NEW homes % offering 71 58 42 40 % Homes with 42 45 32 30 26% have dedicated resource for New Product Development Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey © Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G © Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G Households w/ Structured Wiring Home Controls & Automation ~23M Home Market Segmentation Networks Industrial & Commercial 12 AMX Custom- Crestron So, only about Lutron 1/3 can use Ethernet Installed 8 Builder- HAI Level of Installed Niles 4 Sophistication (installation,support, cost) Total U.S. Households (#M) Do-it-yourself X10 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p 2005p 2006p 2007p 2008p Control & Appliances Data Entertainment Voice Source : Parks Associates' Research Security © 2004 Parks Associates Application Silos C O N S U L T I N G Source: CAZITech & Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G Home Controls & Automation 1. Embedded Processors, Market Drivers Sensors & Actuators Average Car: 110 embedded processors and capacity of Cray-III supercomputer 1. Embedded Processors , Sensors & Actuators A Trillion smart devices by 2010 (interconnected by Standard Protocols) Media, Devices & Disciplines 2. Digital Convergence : 4G Computers: Processor, Network, Power – Berkeley’s Golem Dust (11.7 mm 3) – Berkeley’s Deputy Dust (6.6 mm 3) 3. Standards that Scale & attract Big Players Inside the Home: Since you can’t anticipate future wiring, Wireless Mesh to the rescue. Cybernetic Age: embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators Outside the Home: Always-on Broadband, BIG Broadband C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G 1. Embedded Processors, 1. Embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators Sensors & Actuators More Computing Performance at Less Cost More Computing Performance at Less Cost (Embedded processors in Everything with a Digital Heartbeat) (Embedded processors in Everything with a Digital Heartbeat) LINEAR SCALE LOGARITHMIC SCALE PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE C O S T CO C O S T CO E NC MA CO OR ST RF PE TIME C O N S U L T I N G TIME C O N S U L T I N G 1. Embedded Processors, 1. Embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators Sensors & Actuators Intel processors over Time, showing the effect of Moore's Law Note the Logarithmic Scale Performance (MIPS) 100,000 Cost ($/MIPS) $1,000.00 Photocell Security System Pentium 4, 3.2 GHz Night-light Motion Sensor 50M transistors Light TV Whirlpool Tub 10,000 Alarm Clock $100.00 1,000 Pentium II, 1 GHz 8088, 4.77 MHz Answering 20M transistors $10.00 0.03M transistors GFI Plug Machine 100 Pentium Pro, 200 MGHz Hair Dryer 80286, 12 MHz 5.5M transistors 0.1M transistors $1.00 10 Cost ($ per MIPS) per ($ Cost Garage Door 486DX2, 66 MHz Pentium, 100 MHz Microwave Oven Performance (MIPS) Opener Baby Cam 1.2M transistors 3.1M transistors $0.10 1 32-bit 386, 20 MHz 0.2M transistors Toaster 0.1 $0.01 Air Conditioner Irrigation 1984 1987 1991 1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2008 VCR, DVD, Cable Box, … 1981 Coffee Pot © 2004 Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G Source: Intel C O N S U L T I N G 2. Digital Convergence: 2. Digital Convergence: Media, Devices & Disciplines In the Home DCI Started by IC2 Institute at U.Texas Lighting PC Network Data N/W Connecting the Greater Internet Home Energy Waco – Austin –San Antonio Corridor Access Extends UTOPIA concept Mgt. (Utah Telecomm. Open Infrastructure Agency) CONTROL & Comm. HVAC Phone Computers Biotech AUTOMATION B S IT E S N E G 21 st Century Irrigation Audio Architecture S A N T O O R M U S NE Digital Security Video Networks Nanotech Convergence Multimedia InitiativeInitiative C O N S U L T I N G 3. Standards that Scale 3. Standards that Scale blur Market Segmentation attract Big Players Industrial & Commercial N IP-based Standards e Custom- w (reliable, scalable, affordable) PC: Cisco/Linksys, HP, IBM, Microsoft, Installed T e Sony Ethernet a c nd h 10/100/1000-base-T n D o CE: LG, Panasonic, Sanyo, Samsung, o log HomePlug w Sharp, Sony Finding Nemo, by Disney & Pixar Animation Studios n ie - M s Insteon Semiconductor: Intel, Motorola, Philips, TI a m Working together in Trade Associations r ov k 1394 Trade Assn (1394TA.org) Wi-Fi e Appliance: LG, Panasonic, Samsung, Assn.of Home Appliance Mfgrs.
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