A presentation for the IEEE based on a report by: Building Systems Sub-industries

Lighting Access Security Energy LightFair ISC CCTV Life Safety FMA FM NFPA WEEC Fire Home & Building Building Networks

ASHRAE Automation & Controls Mgt COMDEX AHR Expo HVAC IT Finally ready for the Mass Market? Telecom PA LonWorks LonWorld NSCA by Wayne Caswell Video BACnet Retail [email protected] Training Audio EIB Hospitals Sales Schools

http://www.automatedbuildings.com/news/ C O N S U L T I N G mar03/articles/builconn/bcon.htm Verticals Vendors C O N S U L T I N G

Digital Home Applications

Lighting PC Network Information

Internet Solutions Experience Lab Comfort, Energy Access  Hotel / Living Room Convenience,  Kitchen  Garage / Car Security HVAC Phone  Hospital Room  Retail Café  NW Operations Ctr Irrigation Audio

 IPTV, WebSphere, RFID, Speech, Security Video Embedded, Location Tracking, Entertainment RSS, Pen-based, Mobile Devices

C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G

2008p

2007p

2006p 2005p G N I T U L N S O C

~76M ~39M ~23M ~71M 2004p Skeptics Skeptics

status quo

Laggards

maintain the maintain 2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

sensitive 1998 risk and are price price are risk and

, by , Geoffrey Moore

(MillionsofHouseholds) U.S. Conservatives avoid avoid Conservatives 1997

1996

1995 1994

vs. High-end High-end Newvs. Homes Mass Market Households 1993

Crossingthe Chasm 1992

EarlyMajority Majority Late from MassMarketfrom Growth 1991 PC, Internet PC, Internet & Pragmatics want want Pragmatics

Source: and “safe” choices and

Penetration Penetration

evolutionary change change evolutionary 1990

1989 1988

CHASM

PC Households (#M) Households PC (#M) Households Internet (#M) Households Data Network (#M) Households

1987 1986

Early Adopters Early

A Wide A CHASMseparates Today’s Home Controls Niche 1985 breakthrough Visionaries seek seek Visionaries 0 : Parks Associates' Research and Forecasts and Associates'Research Parks : 75 50 25

through revolutionary revolutionary through

100 competitive advantage advantage competitive Innovators . Households U.S. of Millions technology try any new new any try Enthusiasts Enthusiasts Source Associates Parks2004 ©

08

06 802.11e UWB Zigbee 802.11i DOCSIS 2.0 DOCSIS HomePlug BPL Z-Wave 04 802.11n C O N S U L T I N G N I T U L N S C O C O N S U L T I N G N I T U L N S C O

02 New Homes Homes New OSGi

HPNA 3.0 HPNA 2000 802.11g SCP ENDS HPnP ENDS CEBus CEBus ENDS UPnP HomeRF 2.0 HomeRF 68 K 68

HomeRF ENDS HomeRF 98 DOCSIS 1.0 DOCSIS HomePlug 1.0 HomePlug

HomeRF 1.0 HomeRF 96 HomePNA 2.0 HomePNA 1.33 M 1.33 f Home Builders f Home 802.11b, 802.11a 802.11b, sold in 2003 worth >$500K 2003 worth in sold 94 Homes New New Home Construction 2002 Home Construction New >$500,000 Home Value New CEBus EIA-600 CEBus std HomePNA HomePNA founded 92 DOCSIS 2.0 DOCSIS LonWorks std EIA-709 HPnP begun Technology Timeline Technology IEEE std 1394 1990 DAVIC formed DAVIC VESA HNC formed HNC VESA 30-year Digital 30-year Home 88 Newatare $500,000+ Homes Valued just 0.065% of the Totaljust Opportunity. 0.065% 86 New Homes New Sold in in 2003 Sold CEBus IS- CEBus 60 standard vs. High-end High-end Newvs. Homes Mass Market Households 802.11 WG founded 802.11 WG 84 Echelon founded Japan’s Japan’s HomeBus

82 1.33M HomeRF HomeRF WG founded Firewire invented Firewire 1980 CEBus CEBus kicks off

X-10 78

76

74 M 105.5 U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association o Association National Commerce, of Department U.S. (2000 Census) 72 1/3 Rental New Home Construction 2002 Home Construction New Total U.S. Housing Market (#M) Market Total U.S. Housing 2/3 Owned Wireless Powerline Phoneline 1970 Occupied Households U.S. Source: ECHO IV ECHO

Source: Parks Associates’ Research Associates’ Parks Source:

68 Associates Parks © 2004 Relative Market Size Market Relative Structured Wiring Technology Amenities (for Satellite TV, Telephone, , 1394) Offered & Installed

Distribution Hub / Panel • Demarcation point for telecommunications and video services. Percentage of Home Builders Offering Products; • Often includes Ethernet routers and video amplifiers. % of Homes being Installed with Amenities in 2003 • Cost: about ¼ of the entire system 90 80

Category 5 UTP cables 70 • Cat.5 unshielded twisted pairs support voice/data transmission up to 100 Mbps. Cat.5e supports 1 Gbps Ethernet. 60 • Cost: ~$100 per 1,000 feet versus $80 for older Cat.2 cable. 50 RG-6 Coax Cables 40 • Quad-shielded and most effective media for video distribution 30 of hundreds of channels (satellite). 20 • Cost: ~$350 per 1,000 feet 10

Percentage of Builders/Homes (%) 0 (optional) Structured Wiring Security Systems Intercoms Vacuum Systems Multi-room Audio • One pair has more capacity than 1,400 pairs of copper. (n=113) (n=182) (n=149) (n=189) (n=121) • Cost: about $150 per foot % offering 68 79 55 68 60 Wall Outlets % Homes with 59 67 45 41 44 • Can accommodate multiple services (data, voice, and video) Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey © Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G

Entertainment Amenities Home Builders’ Attitudes Offered & Installed about offering NEW Products

Percentage of Home Builders Offering Products; We typically look for new products that can % of Homes Being Installed with Amenities in 2003 62% 80 differentiate us in the market.

70 We are cautious about offering new products and wait until we have customers asking us for a 22% 60 new technology. 50 Offering new products is not a priority for us; we 12% 40 wait until the market dictates we need to. 30 Anything other than basic infrastructure is 20 2% beyond the scope of our homes. % Respondents (n=317) 10

PercentageBuilders/Homes of (%) 0 Entertainment Center Home Theater Pre- Dedicated Home Media Room (n=109)  They sold $11 Billion in technology products in 2004 (est. $12.2B in 2005) (n=113) Wire (n=115) Theater (n=109)  They represent a Formidable Channel, but only for NEW homes % offering 71 58 42 40 % Homes with 42 45 32 30  26% have dedicated resource for New Product Development

Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey © Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G © Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G Households w/ Structured Wiring Home Controls & Automation ~23M Home Market Segmentation Networks Industrial & Commercial 12 AMX Custom- Crestron So, only about Lutron 1/3 can use Ethernet Installed

8

Builder- HAI Level of Installed Niles

4 Sophistication (installation,support, cost) Total U.S. Households (#M)

Do-it-yourself 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p 2005p 2006p 2007p 2008p Control & Appliances Data Entertainment Voice Source : Parks Associates' Research Security © 2004 Parks Associates Application Silos C O N S U L T I N G Source: CAZITech & Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G

Home Controls & Automation 1. Embedded Processors, Market Drivers Sensors & Actuators

 Average Car: 110 embedded processors and capacity of Cray-III supercomputer 1. Embedded Processors , Sensors & Actuators  A Trillion smart devices by 2010 (interconnected by Standard Protocols) Media, Devices & Disciplines 2. Digital Convergence :  4G Computers: Processor, Network, Power – Berkeley’s Golem Dust (11.7 mm 3) – Berkeley’s Deputy Dust (6.6 mm 3)

3. Standards that Scale & attract Big Players  Inside the Home: Since you can’t anticipate future wiring, Wireless Mesh to the rescue. Cybernetic Age: embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators

 Outside the Home: Always-on Broadband, BIG Broadband

C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G 1. Embedded Processors, 1. Embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators Sensors & Actuators

More Computing Performance at Less Cost More Computing Performance at Less Cost (Embedded processors in Everything with a Digital Heartbeat) (Embedded processors in Everything with a Digital Heartbeat)

LINEAR SCALE LOGARITHMIC SCALE PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE C C OT S C C OT S

E NC MA CO OR ST RF PE

TIME C O N S U L T I N G TIME C O N S U L T I N G

1. Embedded Processors, 1. Embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators Sensors & Actuators

Intel processors over Time, showing the effect of Moore's Law Note the Logarithmic Scale Performance (MIPS) 100,000 Cost ($/MIPS) $1,000.00 Photocell Security System Pentium 4, 3.2 GHz Night-light Motion Sensor 50M transistors Light TV Whirlpool Tub 10,000 Alarm Clock $100.00

1,000 Pentium II, 1 GHz 8088, 4.77 MHz Answering 20M transistors $10.00 0.03M transistors GFI Plug Machine 100 Pentium Pro, 200 MGHz Hair Dryer 80286, 12 MHz 5.5M transistors 0.1M transistors $1.00 10 Cost ($ per MIPS) per ($ Cost Garage Door 486DX2, 66 MHz Pentium, 100 MHz Microwave Oven Performance (MIPS) Opener Baby Cam 1.2M transistors 3.1M transistors $0.10 1 32-bit 386, 20 MHz 0.2M transistors Toaster 0.1 $0.01 Air Conditioner Irrigation 1984 1987 1991 1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2008 VCR, DVD, Cable Box, … 1981 Coffee Pot © 2004 Parks Associates C O N S U L T I N G Source: Intel C O N S U L T I N G 2. Digital Convergence: 2. Digital Convergence: Media, Devices & Disciplines In the Home

 DCI Started by IC2 Institute at U.Texas Lighting PC Network Data N/W  Connecting the Greater Internet Home Energy Waco – Austin –San Antonio Corridor Access  Extends UTOPIA concept Mgt. (Utah Telecomm. Open Infrastructure Agency) CONTROL & Comm. HVAC Phone Computers Biotech AUTOMATION B S IT E S N E G 21 st Century Irrigation Audio Architecture S A N T O O R M U S NE Digital Security Video Networks Nanotech Convergence Multimedia InitiativeInitiative C O N S U L T I N G

3. Standards that Scale 3. Standards that Scale blur Market Segmentation attract Big Players Industrial & Commercial

N IP-based Standards e Custom- w (reliable, scalable, affordable)  PC: Cisco/Linksys, HP, IBM, Microsoft, Installed T e Ethernet a c nd h 10/100/1000-base-T n D o  CE: LG, Panasonic, Sanyo, Samsung, o log HomePlug w Sharp, Sony Finding Nemo, by Disney & Pixar Animation Studios n ie - M s Insteon  Semiconductor: Intel, Motorola, Philips, TI a m Working together in Trade Associations r ov k 1394 Trade Assn (1394TA.org) Wi-Fi e  Appliance: LG, Panasonic, Samsung, Assn.of Home Appliance Mfgrs. (AHAM.org) t e Continental Automated Buildings Assn. (CABA.org) BOM = $14 U Sanyo, Sharp, Whirlpool p Consumer Electronics Assn. (CE.org) (2006 MIMO) - Digital Living Network Assn. (DLNA.org)  Retail: BestBuy, Circuit City, CompUSA, Fiber-to-the-Home Council (FTTHcouncil.org) ZigBee Home Depot, Lowe’s, Radio Shack, Sears, HomePlug Powerline Alliance (HomePlug.org) Do-it-yourself Internet Home Alliance (InternetHomeAlliance.org) Smarthome, Tweeter, Ultimate Electronics, Multimedia over Coax Alliance (MoCAlliance.org) Z-Wave Open Service Gateway Alliance (OSGi.org) Control & Wal-Mart Universal Plug and Play Forum (UPnP.org) Appliances Data Entertainment Voice Security Wi-Fi Alliance (wi-fi.org) Application Integration ZigBee Alliance (.org) w/ Sensors & Actuators Source: CAZITech, Parks Associates & IDC C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G 3. Standards that Scale Standards & Technologies attract Big Players that impact Home Control

Promote an INDUSTRY Promote Specific STANDARDS NAME BRIEF DESCRIPTION CLASS TYPE URL COMPANIES AHAM CABA CEA DLNA IHA 1394 HomePlug LonMark MoCA OSGi UPnP Wi-Fi ZigBee PHONELINE, COAX – Uses existing phone lines and coaxial cables for high-speed data networking AMX XXX HomePNA™ High-speed network using phone outlets Data Consortia HomePNA.org Cisco/Linksys B X X P X X X X HomeRAN™ High-speed network using coax outlets Data Proprietary TMT3.com Crestron Electronics XX X MoCA High-speed network from Multimedia over Coax Alliance Data Consortia MoCAlliance.co m Echelon BX PPX Hewlett-Packard BPPB BXX STRUCTURED WIRING – Nets that rely on specialized Structured Wiring (RG-6 coax and Cat.5/6/7 TTP) Honeywell BX PXP Ethernet IEEE 802.3 high-speed network, 10/100/1000 Mbps Data Standard grouper.ieee.o rg/groups/802/ XXPP PXX IBM 3/ XXPX BX Intel HAVi Home Audio Video i nteroperability in entertainment cluster Data Consortia HAVi.org Leviton BX XX IEEE 1394 Very high-speed connection (AKA Firewire, iLink) Data Standard 1394ta.org LG Electronics XXXXX BXP TIA/EIA-570-A Telecommunications Cabling Standard (specs the wire) Media Standard TiaOnline.org Lutron XX X DEVICE/NETWORK MANAGEMENT – Device Discovery, Network Management, and Upper Layer Stds Microsoft BXPXX BX CableHome™ Extend cable-based services over home network Data CableLabs cablelabs.com Motorola XXXXXXXPXXP DOCSIS™ Data Over Cable Service I nterface Specification ® Consortia /projects/cable Panasonic XXBPPBPXXBX home/ OpenCable™ Plug-and-Play retail TV receivers Philips Semicon. XBPX PBXP Jini Sun’s Java based open software architecture Discovery Consortia Jini.org Samsung XPBXPPBXP OSGi™ Open Service Gateway initiative – development platform Gateways Consortia OSGi.org Sanyo X B X X X XX UPnP™ Microsoft’s Universal Plug a nd Play collection of standards Various Consortia UPnP.org Sharp BPXPXXX Smarthome XX X INTERNET PROTOCOLS – Increasingly used in home control applications, especially for remote access Sony XPXX BX TCP/IP Transmission Control Protocol/ Internet Protocol Data Standard W3.org Sun Microsystems XX PX UDP User Datagram Protocol – simpler than TCP, runs on IP Data Standard W3.org Texas Instruments X P B XXXX HTML Hyper text Markup L anguage – for graphical user interface GUI Standard W3.org Ucentric Systems XX X HTTP Hyper text Transfer Protocol – messaging format & transfer Data Standard W3.org Vantage Controls XX X XML Extensible Markup Language – creates customized tags Data Standard W3.org Whirlpool BXP X SSL Secure Sockets Layer – private key encryption Data Standard W3.org

Standards & Technologies Powerline Standards that impact Home Control for Home Networking & Controls

NAME BRIEF DESCRIPTION CLASS TYPE URL OBSOLETE – Development has stopped on these standards, although some products still use them. CEBus® ANSI standard (EIA-600, -721, -776) Control Standard CEBus.org Home Plug & Play™ CIC branded CEBus network using CAL (EIA-721) protocol Control Standard CEBus.org HomeRF™ 2.4 GHz wireless network merging voice, data & streaming Data Consortia HomeRF.org SCP Simple Control Protocol using CEBus, Home Plug & Play Control Consortia N/A WIRELESS – Uses radio transmissions in unlicensed bands such as 900MHZ, 2.4 GHz and 5 GHz Bluetooth® IEEE 802.15.1 – short range wireless cable replacement WPAN Standard Bluetooth.com IrDA® Infra red Data Association – line of sight control & data Control Consortia IrDA.org RadioRA™ Lutron’s proprietary wireless control protocol Control Proprietary Lutron.com/ra diora Ultra-Wideband IEEE 802.15.3a – high-speed, short range wireless WPAN Standard UWB.org FEATURE X-10 UPB LonWorks HomePlug AV Insteon Wi-Fi® IEEE 802.11a/b/g… – high-speed wireless LAN WLAN Standard Wi-Fi.org WiMAX IEEE 802.16 – High-speed wireless MAN WMAN Standard WiMaxForum.or Devices 256 >62K >32K >16M g ZigBee IEEE 802.15.4 – low power, low cost mesh network Control Standard ZigBee.org Cost (lamp mod.) $12 lamp $75 lamp $35 $30 lamp Z-Wave™ Low power, low cost mesh network Control Proprietary Zen-sys.com POWERLINE – Uses A/C power mains or electric utility’s power grid Reliability 1-way 2-way 2-way 2-way BACnet Amer.Soc.of Heating, Refrig. & A/C Engineers (ASHRAE) Control Consortia BACnet.org Echonet Japanese Energy Conservation & HOmecare NETwork Control Consortia echonet.gr.jp/e Speed 1-3 sec. 0.3 sec. 85-200 Mbps 0.04 sec. nglish/ HomePlug™ High-speed network using OFDM technology Data Consortia HomePlug.org Range 150’ 75’ 4,000’ n*150’ Insteon™ Smarthome’s Dual band (RF + powerline) control network Control Proprietary Insteon.net LonWorks™ EIA-709 powerline control based on Echelon’s Lon Talk Control Standard Echelon.com Compatibility de facto Proprietary ANSI/EIA709 X-10 UPB™ from Powerline Control Systems Control Proprietary pcslighting.co m Function X10 De facto standard for low-speed powerline control Control Proprietary X10.com See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_line_communication Wireless Standards Wireless Positioning for Home Networking & Controls (Relative Measures on Logarithmic Scale)

Range Tradeoffs 3G Cellular 802.20 2/2.5G Cellular  Cost Vehicular 10,000+m 802.16e

 Battery Life 802.16a (WiMAX)  Compatibility 1,000m Nomadic  Ease of Setup & Use 100m 802.11  Reliability (Wi-Fi)

 Security Stationary 10m 802.15.1 802.15.3 (Bluetooth) (UWB)  Range 802.15.4 0.1 Mbps 1 Mbps 10 Mbps 100+ Mbps  Speed (ZigBee, UWB Lite) Throughput Z-Wave C O N S U L T I N G

Wireless Standards Wireless Standards for Home Networking & Controls for Home Networking & Controls

Remote Control of A/V Equipment Crestron AMX Modero Sony VAIO VGN-U50 or Media Center PC

CorAccess Amigo

Niles TS1 (~$500) Remote Control of Surveillance Equipment

Philips Pronto Remote Control S/W for existing PDA Mesh Networking

Source: Source:

C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G

Mesh Networking Mesh Networking

Self Configuring

Source: Source:

C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G Mesh Networking Network Topologies ZigBee & Z-Wave

Self Healing Mesh

Star

Cluster Tree PAN coordinator Source: End Device

C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G

Bridging Clusters Wireless Standards >10,000 Devices (254 * 255 ) for Home Control Applications

254 Devices FEATURE ZigBee Z-Wave INSTEON Devices >64K (254*255) 255 per controller 16.7 M Zensys ~$1 chip set ~$2 chip set Cost / Availability None yet Home Depot, Lowes $35 lamp module Battery Life Low Power Low Power Low Power 868/915 MHz (EU/NA) 868/915 MHz (EU/NA) Frequency 868/908 MHz (EU/NA) 254 Devices 2.4 GHz (WW) 131/120 KHz (PLC) Speed 40-250 Kbps 9.6-40 Kbps 10 messages/sec Range ~150’ ~150’ ~150’ Compatibility IEEE 802.15.4 Proprietary Proprietary, X-10 254 Devices PAN coordinator Routed Mesh/Star Routed Mesh/Star Peer-to-Peer Mesh Topology End Device Supervised Supervised Non-supervised

C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G Conclusions Conclusions The Consumer’s Cultural Lag Ready for the Mass Market?

Custom- What we are Installed confronted with We FINALLY have Scalability But TOO Many Standards Cultural lag Need a DOMINANT Player Tough MARKETING Challenges Do-it-yourself Entertainment Voice Control & Appliances Data Security Technology Innovation Curve  Awareness What we are  Branding able to take in  Partnerships  Value Consumer Adoption Curve  Packaging

X-10 ActiveHome Kit with © 2004 Parks Associates 5-in-1 remote, PC interface, and software $49.95 C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G

Reference Material

 AutomatedBuildings.com (Resource: Building Management Systems) Wayne Caswell [email protected]  CABA.org (Continental Automated Buildings Association – Residential & Commercial) 512-335-6073  CAZITech.com (CAZITech Consulting – Speaker’s home page) Wayne Caswell is a retired IBMer and digital home pioneer with extensive IT experience in  Control4.com (Good online marketing of ZigBee solution) development, systems engineering, marketing, and strategy. He helped pioneer the concept, influenced RG standards, and served as the Marketing Chairman of the  CortexaTechnology.com (Flexible and well-architected solution from local firm) HomeRF Working Group, an initiative that converged voice, data and entertainment networks into a single wireless specification that ultimately lost in the market to Wi-Fi.  DLNA.org (Digital Living Network Alliance) After IBM, Wayne founded CAZITech Consulting, an independent practice that helped  (Resource: Residential Market and Do-it-yourself) HomeToys.com organizations of all sizes discover and exploit new opportunities in technology convergence within  InternetHomeAlliance.com (Collaborative Market Research) broadband, wireless and home networking markets. He is now exploring new ways to influence the future of these technologies with a resume of experience that includes strategic planning,  MesaHome.com (Austin’s oldest Home Systems installer) business development, and market and competitive analysis.

 ParksAssociates.com (Premier Home Systems market researcher) Wayne has a BS degree in Technology Management from American University and is a member of the Austin Wireless Alliance, CABA, the FCC Consumer Advisory Committee, and World  SmartHome.com (INSTEON developer and online Home Systems retailer) Future Society, among other associations.  Z-WaveAlliance.org (Z-Wave information)

 ZigBeeAlliance.org (ZigBee information) C O N S U L T I N G C O N S U L T I N G