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Owner and Publisher/ Sahibi Ve Yayıncısı: Assoc.Prof.Dr./ Doç.Dr Fikret BİRDİŞLİ
Volume: 2, Number: 3-2020 / Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3-2020 Owner and Publisher/ Sahibi ve Yayıncısı: Assoc.Prof.Dr./ Doç.Dr Fikret BİRDİŞLİ EDITOR-IN-CHIEF/ EDİTOR Assoc. Prof.Dr. Fikret BİRDİŞLİ İnönü University, Center for Strategic Researches (INUSAM), 44280, Malatya-TURKEY Phone: +90 422 3774261/4383 E-mail [email protected] MANAGING EDITORS / ALAN EDİTÖRLERİ Political Science Editor/ Siyaset Bilimi Editörü Prof.Dr. Ahmet Karadağ İnönü University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Relations, 44280, Malatya-TURKEY Phone: +90 422 3774288 E-mail [email protected] International Relations and Security Studies Editor/ Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Güvenlik Çalışmaları Editörü Assoc.Prof.Dr. Fikret Birdişli İnönü University, Center for Strategic Researches (INUSAM), 44280, Malatya-TURKEY Phone: +90 422 3774261/4383 E-mail [email protected] CONTAC INFORMATION / İLETİŞİM BİLGİLERİ İnönü University, Center for Strategic Researches (INUSAM), 44280, Malatya-TURKEY Phone: +90 422 3774261 İnönü Üniversitesi, Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi, İİBF Ek Bina, Kat:3, 44280, Malatya-TÜRKİYE IJPS, 2019; 2(3) International Journal of Politics and Security, 2019: 2(3) 2020, 2 (3), / Volume: 2, Number: 3-2020 OWNER / SAHİBİ/ Assoc. Prof.Dr. Fikret BİRDİŞLİ Managing Editors / Editörler Political Science Editor: Ahmet Karadağ International Relations and Security Studies Editor: Fikret Birdişli Editorial Assistance / Editör Yardımcıları English Language Editors: Christopher Trinh, La Trobe University, -
Afghanistan: Charting a New Path by Eva Gross
48 2014 R A HM A T GUL/AP/SIPA Afghanistan: charting a new path by Eva Gross Following a protracted dispute over election re- common ground with his former presidential con- sults, a national unity government headed by tender Abdullah Abdullah, who now occupies the President Ashraf Ghani was sworn in in Kabul last post of chief executive in the government. September. This has injected some badly-needed momentum into Afghan politics after months of Restructuring, and drastically resetting the way electoral deadlock and over a decade of Karzai things are done, takes time – and, in a sense, rule increasingly marked by antagonism between Ghani’s mission is a race against the clock. This ap- the president and the West. This new phase repre- plies both to firming up international commitments sents an opportunity also for the EU and its mem- to support the Afghan economy and to providing ber states to tailor their respective approaches and security assistance to counter a still active Taliban commitments to a changing political and security insurgency – while at the same time instilling trust environment that promises greater activism on the in the system on the part of the Afghan public at part of Afghanistan’s neighbours in the months and large. years to come. In an effort to restore confidence in the rule of law in particular, President Ghani has moved to resolve A promising start the $1 billion Kabul Bank scandal that had come to serve as a symbol of corruption in the country. But President Ghani has made accountability and legiti- more can be done: customs for instance, an area that macy the centrepiece of his agenda for cabinet and last year generated 26% of government revenue, is government appointments so as to improve govern- rife with corruption that involves field officials as ance and win public trust. -
Afghanistan State Structure and Security Forces
European Asylum Support Office Afghanistan State Structure and Security Forces Country of Origin Information Report August 2020 SUPPORT IS OUR MISSION European Asylum Support Office Afghanistan State Structure and Security Forces Country of Origin Information Report August 2020 More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). ISBN: 978-92-9485-650-0 doi: 10.2847/115002 BZ-02-20-565-EN-N © European Asylum Support Office (EASO) 2020 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, unless otherwise stated. For third-party materials reproduced in this publication, reference is made to the copyrights statements of the respective third parties. Cover photo: © Al Jazeera English, Helmand, Afghanistan 3 November 2012, url CC BY-SA 2.0 Taliban On the Doorstep: Afghan soldiers from 215 Corps take aim at Taliban insurgents. 4 — AFGHANISTAN: STATE STRUCTURE AND SECURITY FORCES - EASO COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION REPORT Acknowledgements This report was drafted by the European Asylum Support Office COI Sector. The following national asylum and migration department contributed by reviewing this report: The Netherlands, Office for Country Information and Language Analysis, Ministry of Justice It must be noted that the review carried out by the mentioned departments, experts or organisations contributes to the overall quality of the report, it but does not necessarily imply their formal endorsement of the final report, which is the full responsibility of EASO. AFGHANISTAN: STATE STRUCTURE AND SECURITY -
H.E. Abdullah Abdullah Discusses Peace Talks in Afghanistan United States Institute of Peace (Webcast Only) Wednesday, June 24, 2020 Transcript
H.E. Abdullah Abdullah Discusses Peace Talks in Afghanistan United States Institute of Peace (Webcast Only) Wednesday, June 24, 2020 Transcript Nancy Lindborg: Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, depending on where you're viewing this livestream. My name is Nancy Lindborg and I am the president and CEO of the U.S. Institute of Peace. And I know there are viewers joining us from all around the world. We're delighted to have all of you here with us today for a very timely and important discussion. We're honored to have with us His Excellency Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, who has taken time at this very critical moment in the Afghan peace process to share how he and the High Council for National Reconciliation are preparing for talks with the Taliban. After the keynote address, we'll have a Q&A session moderated by USIP’s Vice President for Asia Dr. Andrew Wilder and we invite you to take part in this event by asking a question through the YouTube livestream in the comments section, and you can also engage with us and with each other on Twitter with today's hashtag #AfghanPeace. At USIP, supporting a sustainable peace process in Afghanistan has been a core priority, and I'm encouraged that in recent months there has been progress towards direct inter-Afghan negotiations. At the same time, violence is rising to unprecedented levels, including increasing and quite disturbing numbers of civilian casualties. And there are other challenges: COVID-19 has exacerbated the struggles that Afghans face, including contributing to increased food insecurity and extreme poverty. -
“TELLING the STORY” Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: a Regional Perspective (2011-2016)
“TELLING THE STORY” Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective (2011-2016) Emma Hooper (ed.) This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. © 2016 CIDOB This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. CIDOB edicions Elisabets, 12 08001 Barcelona Tel.: 933 026 495 www.cidob.org [email protected] D.L.: B 17561 - 2016 Barcelona, September 2016 CONTENTS CONTRIBUTOR BIOGRAPHIES 5 FOREWORD 11 Tine Mørch Smith INTRODUCTION 13 Emma Hooper CHAPTER ONE: MAPPING THE SOURCES OF TENSION WITH REGIONAL DIMENSIONS 17 Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective .......... 19 Zahid Hussain Mapping the Sources of Tension and the Interests of Regional Powers in Afghanistan and Pakistan ............................................................................................. 35 Emma Hooper & Juan Garrigues CHAPTER TWO: KEY PHENOMENA: THE TALIBAN, REFUGEES , & THE BRAIN DRAIN, GOVERNANCE 57 THE TALIBAN Preamble: Third Party Roles and Insurgencies in South Asia ............................... 61 Moeed Yusuf The Pakistan Taliban Movement: An Appraisal ......................................................... 65 Michael Semple The Taliban Movement in Afghanistan ....................................................................... -
The Afghan Conundrum Taliban’S Takeover and the Way Forward
COMMENTARY: FALL OF AFGHANISTAN The Afghan Conundrum Taliban’s Takeover and the Way Forward FURQAN KHAN abul Fell—the headlines of the week shocked many, for the greatest war machine in history failed to take note of the Taliban’s decisive onslaught, and yet again, another experiment of democratic engineering bit the dust Kin Kabul. Some call it “Saigon 2.0,” while others attribute the Taliban’s swift vic- tory to the lack of resistance by Ashraf Ghani’s government. To some, the situa- tion is a deliberate attempt by the United States to leave instability to China and Russia, while others call it the “biggest intelligence failure” in American history. Whatever the reasons, the Taliban has taken over Kabul, and the world must embrace and deal with an insurgent group holding power in the “Heart of Asia.” With the declaration of the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghani- stan, regional countries are debating their way forward to either recognizing the Taliban- led government or not. For the United States, the situation is rather chal- lenging, as aside from the tough questions over the rationality of the “Forever War” and poorly managed withdrawal strategy by the Biden administration, Washington confronts a harder choice about the Taliban as well as how to man- age the evacuation of American citizens and allies from Kabul. The Takeover: As it Happened! Days before Kabul fell, the US intelligence assessment suggested that the city could fall within 90 days, but to the surprise of many, it look less than ten.1 The intelligence failure, collapse in the will to fight, rampant corruption in the govern- ment forces, and withdrawal of US close air support and logistics are among ma- jor reasons for the swift collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and for the fall of Afghanistan. -
Political Laws and Ethnic Accommodation: Why Cross-Ethnic Coalitions Have Failed to Institutionalize in Afghanistan
Political Laws and Ethnic Accommodation: Why Cross-Ethnic Coalitions Have Failed to Institutionalize in Afghanistan Mohammad Bashir Mobasher A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Washington 2017 Reading Committee: Robert Pekannen, Chair Jonathan Eddy, Co-Chair James Long Scott Radnitz Leigh Anderson Program Authorized to Offer Degree: School of Law © Copyright 2017 Mohammad Bashir Mobasher University of Washington ABSTRACT Political Laws and Ethnic Accommodation: Why Cross-Ethnic Coalitions Have Failed to Institutionalize in Afghanistan Mohammad Bashir Mobasher Chairs of the Supervisory Committee: Professor Robert Pekannen – Jackson School of International Studies Professor Jonathan Eddy – School of Law Afghanistan suffers from an ethnic-based and fragmented party system. Although some cross-ethnic coalitions have emerged, especially during the presidential elections, these coalitions have failed to survive across elections and branches of government. As for what explains the failure of the consolidation of coalitions, some scholars pointed to the SNTV system and others to the presidential system. This study examines all related institutional designs, including the SNTV system for parliamentary elections, the runoff system for presidential elections, the presidential system, dual vice presidency, and party qualification thresholds. These systems and institutions are designed by three bodies of political laws: the Constitution, electoral laws, and party laws. Analyzing these laws and institutional designs, this study makes three observations. First, the failure of coalitions to institutionalize in Afghanistan is not due to a single political law or institutional design but due to the influence of a number of them. Second, for cross-ethnic coalitions to institutionalize, all related institutional designs must act cohesively or else they fail to incentivize coalition-building, as is the case in Afghanistan. -
Lead Inspector General for Operation Freedom's Sentinel April 1, 2021
OFS REPORT TO CONGRESS FRONT MATTER OPERATION FREEDOM’S SENTINEL LEAD INSPECTOR GENERAL REPORT TO THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS APRIL 1, 2021–JUNE 30, 2021 FRONT MATTER ABOUT THIS REPORT A 2013 amendment to the Inspector General Act established the Lead Inspector General (Lead IG) framework for oversight of overseas contingency operations and requires that the Lead IG submit quarterly reports to Congress on each active operation. The Chair of the Council of Inspectors General for Integrity and Efficiency designated the DoD Inspector General (IG) as the Lead IG for Operation Freedom’s Sentinel (OFS). The DoS IG is the Associate IG for the operation. The USAID IG participates in oversight of the operation. The Offices of Inspector General (OIG) of the DoD, the DoS, and USAID are referred to in this report as the Lead IG agencies. Other partner agencies also contribute to oversight of OFS. The Lead IG agencies collectively carry out the Lead IG statutory responsibilities to: • Develop a joint strategic plan to conduct comprehensive oversight of the operation. • Ensure independent and effective oversight of programs and operations of the U.S. Government in support of the operation through either joint or individual audits, inspections, investigations, and evaluations. • Report quarterly to Congress and the public on the operation and activities of the Lead IG agencies. METHODOLOGY To produce this quarterly report, the Lead IG agencies submit requests for information to the DoD, the DoS, USAID, and other Federal agencies about OFS and related programs. The Lead IG agencies also gather data and information from other sources, including official documents, congressional testimony, policy research organizations, press conferences, think tanks, and media reports. -
Afghanistanss Ethnic, Regional Divisions Produce a Dead Heat In
AFGHAN FUTURES SURVEY Afghanistan’s Ethnic, Regional Divisions Produce a Dead Heat in its Presidential Race May 15, 2014 Kabul, Afghanistan – Ethnic and regional Regardless of these divisions, at least seven divisions drove first-round ballot choices in in 10 Afghans say they’re prepared to accept Afghanistan’s presidential election and point either of the two runoff candidates as the now to a dead heat in a runoff between the country’s legitimate leader. top two finishers, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani. Yet large majorities of Afghans Preliminary results from Afghanistan’s also say they can set aside their tribal Independent Elections Commission put the preferences and accept the ultimate winner first-round election April 5 at 45.0 percent – a hopeful sign for the country’s future. for Abdullah, 31.6 percent for Ghani and 11.4 percent for Zalmay Rasul, with others in A national survey in the Afghan Futures single digits. This poll, based on 2,643 face- series, conducted in mid-March by ACSOR- to-face interviews in a nationwide random Surveys, a subsidiary of D3 Systems, Inc., with sample, had similar results among likely design and analysis by Langer Research voters, 46-35-8 percent. Associates, finds essentially a 50-50 split between Abdullah and Ghani among likely The runoff contest tightens because likely voters, with ethnic Pashtuns, who splintered voters who did not support either Abdullah in the first round, coalescing around Ghani. or Ghani in the first round favor Ghani by Abdullah counters with two-thirds support 57-34 percent in a two-way race. -
Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance
Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs November 8, 2011 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS21922 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance Summary The limited capacity and widespread corruption of all levels of Afghan governance are factors in debate over the effectiveness of U.S. policy in Afghanistan and in implementing a transition to Afghan security leadership by the end of 2014. The capacity of the formal Afghan governing structure has increased significantly since the Taliban regime fell in late 2001, but many positions, particularly at the local level, are unfilled. Widespread illiteracy limits expansion of a competent bureaucracy. A dispute over the results of the 2010 parliamentary elections paralyzed governance for nearly a year and was resolved in September 2011 with the unseating on the grounds of fraud of nine winners of the elected lower house of parliament. Karzai also has tried, through direct denials, to quell assertions by his critics that he wants to stay in office beyond the 2014 expiration of his second term, the limits under the constitution. While trying, with mixed success, to build the formal governing structure, Afghan President Hamid Karzai also works through an informal power structure centered around his close ethnic Pashtun allies as well as other ethnic and political faction leaders. Some faction leaders oppose Karzai on the grounds that he is too willing to make concessions to insurgent leaders in search of a settlement—a criticism that grew following the September 20 assassination of the most senior Tajik leader, former President Burhanuddin Rabbani. -
Understanding Ethnic-Electoral Dynamics: How Ethnic Politics Affect Electoral Laws and Election Outcomes in Afghanistan
MOBASHER 4/18/2016 3:11 PM UNDERSTANDING ETHNIC-ELECTORAL DYNAMICS: HOW ETHNIC POLITICS AFFECT ELECTORAL LAWS AND ELECTION OUTCOMES IN AFGHANISTAN *Mohammad Bashir Mobasher After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Afghanistan began transitioning toward democracy. The democratization, which began with the Bonn Agreement, was very promising for all ethnic groups in Afghanistan. The Bonn Agreement provided that Afghanistan must establish “broad based, gender sensitive, multi- ethnic and fully representative government.”1 As a part of this agreement, Afghanistan adopted a new Constitution in 2004, which established elections as the foundation for representative government and guaranteed that the elections be inclusive, fair, and representative of all groups and regions. Despite this progress in the laws, Afghanistan has not been able to reduce ethnic tensions. In fact, this article shows that ethnic tensions tend to intensify during elections, a result that belies the vision of the Bonn Agreement. After presenting a statistical and qualitative analysis of voting practices across three presidential elections and 26 provinces, this article makes several observations about the role of ethnicity in Afghan presidential elections. These observations are: (1) people of an ethnic community are more likely to vote for a candidate of their own ethnic group; (2) voters from one ethnic group are likely to vote for a candidate from another ethnic group only when they do not have a candidate of their own; (3) cross ethnic voting is more likely to occur in blocs and in exchange for patronage to the elites of voting groups; and (4) candidates and ethno-political elites tend to prioritize their electoral campaigns by ethnic mobilization, manipulation of laws and political bargains rather than by policy development in order to generate votes. -
ELECTORAL ALLIANCES in the 2014 Presidential Season
Jackson Keith BACKGROUNDER October 3, 2013 The FORMATION OF ELECTORAL ALLIANCES IN the 2014 Presidential Season ey Takeaway: Candidates for Afghanistan’s 2014 elections will declare their intent to run for office by KOctober 6, 2013. The most prominent candidates to emerge are Zalmai Rassoul and Abdullah Abdullah. They represent the two main electoral factions will decide the 2014 election: the Karzai-Establishment and an anti-Karzai opposition. Although it appears that a large number of electoral alliances have formed and are backing a wider pool of high profile candidates, these two factions will predominate. The Karzai-Fahim electoral alliance that has characterized Afghan politics since 2009 seems to have broken, and Fahim has joined Abdullah Abdullah. Northern powerbrokers are reorienting, but some influential Tajiks such as Mohammad Atta Noor are likely to join the pro-Karzai establishment candidate. Rassoul is either a Karzai puppet or a placeholder for another candidate. He will need the Karzai family for electoral support. From now until October 6, candidates for the 2014 to the Karzai-establishment, and the opposition organized Afghan presidential election can officially declare their to defeat it. The opposing forces reflect significant trends intent to run for office. The Afghan political rumor mill that cut across ethnic lines and demonstrate that the has proffered a number of viable contenders, with early players are pursuing a real strategy to form coalitions with speculation centering on President Karzai’s older brother electoral and power political strength. Qayum Karzai,1 controversial Islamist figure Abdurrab Rasul Sayyaf,2 popular former Ambassador to Pakistan THE ANTI-KARZAI FACTION-THE ELECTORAL ALLIANCE and recently appointed Interior Minister Omar Daudzai,3 OF AFGHANISTAN (EAA) and former National Security Advisor and current Foreign The anti-Karzai faction is primarily composed of Tajik Minister Zalmai Rassoul.