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About Stratpol ABOUT STRATPOL STRATPOL – Strategic Policy Institute – is an independent think-tank based in Slova- kia with focus on international relations and security policy. Its activities cover Europe- an security, Transatlantic relations and Eastern Partnership countries. For instance, our research, publications, and events cover the topical issues and developments in Central Europe, Ukraine, states of the South Caucasus, as well as NATO, the United States and key strategic regions. Our experts have a proven record in strategic decision-making in their respective governments, military, as well as the world of academia. STRATPOL contributes to academic debate, shapes public opinion through the media and influences policies by formulating recommendations for foreign and security policy decision-makers. STRATPOL has expanded on the professional basis of the Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs, securing the continuity of the Centre’s projects and partnerships. Among our achievements are the Panorama of global security environment, a reputable peer-re- viewed and indexed publication on international relations; yearly South Caucasus Security Forum, a high-level forum for exchanges of views on security developments in the neigh- borhood, held in Tbilisi, Georgia, and long-term projects on security sector reform and capacity building in Ukraine and Georgia, among others. STRATPOL Blagoevova 2676/16, 851 04 Bratislava, Slovakia www.stratpol.sk [email protected] All rights reserved. Any reproduction or copying of this work is allowed only with the per- mission of the publisher. Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and should not be constructed as representing the opinions or policy of any organization participating in preparing the publication. ISBN 978-80-972526-0-1 EAN 9788097252601 Peter BÁTOR, Róbert ONDREJCSÁK (eds.) PANORAMA of global security environment 2015 - 2016 With support of: Global Partners: Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism STRATPOL Bratislava 2016 CONTENS A. Euro-Atlantic Area .....................................................11 STRATEGIC FUTURE OF THE V4 AFTER THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS – CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE .................................13 Karolina Gawron-Tabor THE EU COMPREHENSIVE INSTITUTION BUILDING PROGRAMME – NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS IN GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA ...................25 Veronica Russu NATO AND UKRAINE AFTER THE MAIDAN REVOLUTION .................35 Zdeněk Kříž UKRAINE IN CRISIS: THE ECONOMIC AND SECURITY CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN UNION, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA .........49 Marek Lenč - Martin Kudrec FROM A ‘HYBRID WAR’ TO A ‘HYBRID PEACE’? IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIAN IRREGULAR WARFARE IN UKRAINE FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ........61 Andriy Tyushka FOUNDATIONS OF SOFT SECURITY IN THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS: FRONTIER OF NATO ENLARGEMENT OR EURASIAN ALTERNATIVE? .........71 Jason Strakes EXPLORING NETWORK-CENTRIC WARFARE AND ITS ROLE FOR THE US IN THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR .............................81 Filip Svítek THE BALKANS AND THE PHENOMENA OF “FOREIGN FIGHTERS” ...........91 Aleksandar Vanchoski and Kristina Doda BREAKING THE DUAL SPIRAL OF DIMINISHING CAPABILITIES. 101 Tamás Csiki B. East and South East Europe ............................................113 BALTIC AND CENTRAL EUROPEAN SECURITY AFTER THE UKRAINE CRISIS ....................................................................115 Matthew Rhodes and Ruta Buneviciute THE UKRAINE CRISIS AND THE FUTURE OF US TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN EUROPE: IS THERE A RATIONALE FOR DISARMAMENT? .....121 Tomas A. Nagy THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA-UKRAINIAN WAR ON INTERNAL PUBLIC DEBATE ABOUT FOREIGN POLICY IN UKRAINE ....................................131 Angela Gramada RUSSIA’S MODIFIED FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DYNAMICS OF ITS MILITARY DOCTRINE ........................141 Dali Kurdadze RUSSIAN HYBRID WARFARE IN EASTERN EUROPE: CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS ........................................................151 Robert Person HYBRID MAIDAN IN MOLDOVA: APPROBATION OF RUSSIAN METHODS OF INFLUENCE ................................................161 Sergiy Gerasymchuk SECURITY SECTOR REFORM AND DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE: HUMAN SECURITY PERSPECTIVE ............................171 Oleksandr Tytarchuk NATO-UKRAINE RELATIONS: TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES ..............181 Sergii Tolstov, Iaroslav Chornogor THE CHANGE OF THE MILITARY BALANCE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION ...193 Hanna Shelest THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION IN KYRGYZSTAN: BETWEEN DEVELOPMENT AND STATE FRAGILITY ...................................203 Guilherme Moreira Leite de Mello TRANSNISTRIA: A GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGE WITHIN A CHANGED REGIONAL STATUS QUO ..................................................211 Hanna Vasilevich THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT AND REGIONAL SECURITY: THE IMPLICIT INTERESTS OF REGIONAL PLAYERS .........................221 Armen Grigoryan THE RISE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS - REASONS AND POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES. .231 Tomáš Baranec KAZAKHSTAN AFTER PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV - UNCLEAR FUTURE OF THE CENTRAL ASIAN SUCCESS STORY ..................................241 Peter Plenta PERSPECTIVES OF THE KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARY EXPERIMENT IN THE LIGHT OF TWO ELECTIONS (2010-2015) ..............................251 Pál Gyene “MINSK AGREEMENTS” AND THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IMPLICATIONS IN THE POST-SOVIET AREA. .263 Nadiia Koval C. Middle East and Africa ................................................273 TURKEY IN 2015: HOW ELECTIONS, KURDS AND A NEIGHBOURING CONFLICT SHAPED TURKEY’S SECURITY ..................................275 Lucia Yar SECURITY POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND ITS INTERESTS IN SYRIA ..................................................................285 Lukáš Tichý FROM INTERIM DEAL TO COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENT: TWO CRUCIAL YEARS IN IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME ..................295 Matej Drotár SHIA MILITIAS IN IRAQ: BADR ORGANIZATION VS. THE “ISLAMIC STATE”- RECIPE FOR DISASTER OR SUCCESS? ..............................303 Toms Rātfelders THE END OF ARAB SPRING IN EGYPT: THE ‘DEEP STATE’ RECLAIMS ITS POSITION .............................................................313 Katarína Pevná WHILE THEY WERE NAPPING: OBAMA’S STRATEGY IN SYRIA 2011-2013 .....323 Dušan Fischer THE ISLAMIC STATE: A TOTALITARIAN EXPERIMENT IN THE RUINS OF SYRIA AND IRAQ? .....................................................333 Ondřej Filipec, Michael Brtnický THE STRUGGLE OF IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA OVER IRAQ .................343 Robert Czulda NIGERIA’S BOKO HARAM – IT WILL BE A LONG WAR. 353 Viktor Marsai MIGRATION CRISIS, NEGATIVE IMPACT OF MIGRATION - A CASE STUDY OF KENYA .........................................................367 Lucie Konečná D. Asia and Pacific .......................................................379 HISTORY - JAPAN’S ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. .381 Simon Drugda, Filip Sebok SECURITY CHALLENGES IN THE BORDERLAND AREAS: CHINA’S PEACEFUL DEVELOPMENT ON THE MEKONG RIVER ......................391 Richard Grünwald SOUTH KOREAN TRUST-BUILDING POLICY: IS RE-UNIFICATION AN UNREACHABLE DREAM? ..............................................399 Lucia Husenicova DOMESTIC POLITICS AND PERSONAL BELIEFS IN TAIWAN’S TERRITORIAL CLAIMS: THE DIFFERING APPROACHES OF CHEN SHUI-BIAN AND MA YING-JEOU ......................................................409 Moises Lopes de Souza and Dean Karalekas THE U.S. PIVOT AND STRATEGY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE ......421 Petra Andělová and Mária Strašáková NEITHER DETERRENCE NOR REASSURANCE, BUT BOTH: A DEFENSIVE REALIST ARGUMENT FOR JAPANESE SECURITY POLICY ...................433 Shuhei Takemoto E. New Threats ...........................................................443 THE PRO-RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAKIA ................................................445 Ivana Smoleňová NATO’S ADAPTATION TO CYBER DOMAIN AFTER THE WALES SUMMIT ....455 Milan Hanko THE SPLIT OF NORDIC EUROPE OVER REFUGEE CRISIS: THE RISE OF EXTREMISM? ..........................................................465 Kateřina Lišaníková AFTER PARIS: THE BINARY MODEL TO INTERPRET THE ATTRIBUTION OF TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST ATTACKS ..................................477 Anett Arany – Máté Szalai EU’S ENERGY UNION: FEW NOTES ON THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE .............................................................489 Matúš Mišík NEW WAVE OF JIHADI TERRORISM IN EUROPE: WINNING BATTLES BUT LOOSING THE WAR? .................................................499 Ryszard M. Machnikowski PHENOMENON OF “FOREIGN FIGHTERS” - COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ISLAMIC STATE AND PRO-RUSSIAN SEPARATISTS IN EASTERN UKRAINE. 509 Natalia Wojtowicz THE ‘AUDACITY’ OF DRONE OPERATIONS: OBAMA’S COUNTERTERRORISM STRATEGY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS .......................................519 Kennedy G. Ondieki DIGITAL COUNTERINSURGENCY: CONFLICT BETWEEN ANONYMOUS & ISIS ......................................................529 Dušan Madaj MODERN AUTHORITARIANISM AS A SECURITY THREAT TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE ...................................................539 Michal Mochťák UKRAINE IN CRISIS: THE ECONOMIC AND SECURITY CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN UNION, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA 4 MAREK LENČ – MARTIN KUDREC List of Contents Introduction Current domestic development in Ukraine Failed policy in EU`s neighbourhood? Ukrainian crisis and the Russian war Russia`s hybrid warfare Germany as a guardian and its limits Implications for Slovakia Conclusions and recommendations Introduction Ukraine`s conflicting history offers a long
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