Teneo Insights Webinar: Countdown to the U.S. Election (Part 2) Teneo Insights / August 20, 2020 Tony Sayegh, Mike Allen, Phil Cox, Orson Porter join Mike Allen Co-Founder of Axios Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the upcoming U.S. elections. [email protected] Phil Cox Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Good day, everyone. And welcome to today’s Co-Founder of 50 State and Chairman of the Board of IMG Teneo Insights Webinar. I’m Kevin Kajiwara, Co-President of [email protected] Teneo Political Risk Advisory, calling in from New York City today. Tony Sayegh We are 75 days from the election, and we are in the midst right Managing Director, Teneo now of an unprecedented and slightly surreal Democratic National and former White House Senior Advisor to President Convention. And while the pandemic continues to plague the Donald J. Trump [email protected] country, we are starting to see some relief in some of the summer hotspots. Meanwhile, in the midst of the most profound economic Orson Porter Senior Managing Director contraction and hit to employment since the Great Depression, [email protected] the stock market has hit new highs. Now, since our last call, Joe Kevin Kajiwara Biden has named Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. Co-President, And I have to say that my colleague Orson Porter, who’s joining Political Risk Advisory [email protected] us today, has said from the very beginning that she would be the pick. So, kudos to him. Teneo Insights: Countdown to the U.S. Election (Part 2) Relations with China have continued to finally, I’m joined by my colleague Orson deteriorate. A major agreement was reached Porter. between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. And just two days ago, the Senate Orson’s the Senior Managing Director who Intelligence Committee, in bipartisan leads Teneo’s Government Affairs and fashion, essentially affirmed the findings Public Affairs teams and heads our office in of the Mueller Report regarding Russia’s Washington, DC. Prior to Teneo, Orson was election interference. So today we’re the U.S. Director of Government and Public going to take another look at the state of Affairs for Nike. And he served in the White the election and following our call of two House as a Special Assistant to President weeks ago. Today we’re going to look at it a Bill Clinton. So we’ve got an excellent lineup little bit more through the Republican lens. today and I’d like to invite all of you to However, as with last time, we’re going to get involved in our conversation. You can have a prominent member of the media with submit your questions for my guests at any us today to keep it all in perspective. And to time using the moderator chat button on that end, today I’m joined by Mike Allen. your screen. Mike is one of Washington’s most influential So, let’s get started. And Phil, let me start and well-connected journalists. He’s a with you. Your colleague a couple of weeks Co-Founder of Axios. Mike was also one of ago, Colm O’Comartun, kind of laid out at the founders of Politico, and the New York that time what the state of play was in the Times has called him, “The man the White election. We’re a few more weeks in and House wakes up to.” They were referring give us your current assessment of the to the Obama administration. It’s unclear electoral landscape at the moment. Amidst whether the current White House wakes all the noise, what are the signals that up to him. But in addition, we’re joined by you’re really picking up out there? Not only Phil Cox. Phil is the Founder of Guidepost for the White House race, although we want Strategies. He is a longtime partner of to hear about that, but also for Congress Teneo. He’s the former Executive Director and out in the states as well. of the Republican Governors Association, serves on the board of the Senate Phil Cox (PC): Well thanks, Kevin and great to Leadership Fund, the Mitch McConnell be with y’all this morning. The first campaign backed Super PAC, and he’s a Political I ran was actually 23 years ago, and the first Advisor to Vice President Mike Pence. official interview I ever conducted was with a then up and coming reporter at the Washington Got a lot of balls in the air right now, Post named Mike Allen. So, it’s good to be here he’s running two governor’s races with Mike as well. And I can assure you that and a number of Federal Super PACs. even though you can’t see us this morning, we Tony Sayegh is a Managing Director at both had significantly more hair back then. So, Teneo, he’s advising clients on strategy, I’m glad to be with you this morning. Looking at communications, public affairs, government the Presidential campaign as we approach sort relations, and media. Tony served the of the final night of the DNC, the President’s Trump administration as a Senior Advisor job approval sits around 43, trails Biden by for Strategy and started out there as the anywhere between 5 and 8 points nationally. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury leading the Office of Public Affairs and as Chief Two-thirds of the country disapproves of the Spokesman to Secretary Mnuchin. And President’s response, administration’s response 2 Teneo Insights: Countdown to the U.S. Election (Part 2) on COVID and two thirds believe the country And so, I hope that we’re going to see that, is on the wrong track. And I think that right Tony will talk a little bit about that later. My hope track, wrong track number is an incredibly is that as a Republican, we’re going to see a important indicator. I found it to be the most very clear contrast on policy. Obviously, we important indicator of any incumbent’s chances need less focus on the coronavirus and more for reelection. So, you need to keep an eye on on the economy, where the President is more that, but of course, as we take a deeper dive trusted. So that’s a snapshot of the Presidential. and we look at the eight to 10 battleground On the Senate side, Senate is clearly up for states where the race is going to be decided, grabs. There’s a lot of attention and money it is much more competitive, much closer. The flowing. As Kevin, you mentioned, I’m on the President’s pathway to victory, he needs to win Board of McConnell’s Super PAC. We’re going Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona. to see a half a billion dollars or more spent over the last 75 days on Senate races. Those are all states that he won in ‘16. And then he’s got to figure out how to win one Republican major donors view leader other state, either Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or McConnell really as a potential last line of potentially Michigan as the most likely targets. defense if we were to lose the Presidential. And right now, it’s definitely an uphill fight. The Republicans obviously now stand at 53-47 in President’s sort of four must-win states, Florida the Senate, they’re likely to pick up Alabama and Arizona, he trails anywhere between putting them at 54. There are three states right probably 3 and 5 points at this point, based now where Republicans trail between 5 and 10 on the numbers I’m looking at. Ohio, North points: in Colorado, Arizona, and Maine. And Carolina, effectively tied. He has narrow leads there are four states that are effectively within in what are traditionally Republican states, the margin: Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Texas, little less narrow, but and Montana. These are all Republican states, the President’s campaign has been spending but they’re hard fought races right now. On money in Georgia. the Senate side, you have some senators like Susan Collins, who might be able to build That’s a pretty good indicator of where the race a brand that are somewhat distinct from the is. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, those national party brand. are states that the campaign is spending a lot of time on. Those are states that have a significant But the House races are more directly tied number of non-college educated voters, to the Presidential and Republicans would which the President has been targeting. He’s need 18 seats to get the majority. That seems trailing by anywhere between 5 and probably very unlikely in this environment. There are 9 points in those states, but he needs to find 31 Democrats who are in districts that Trump one of those to win. And so, we’re going to be won in 2016. 13 of those he won by 6 points or watching that. Overall, the Democrats continue more. So, there are some targets of opportunity to kind of expand the map, the Republicans for Republicans, but the Republican pathway are playing a little bit more defense, so it’s an to majority in the House runs through suburban uphill climb, but there’s a lot of time left. And the areas with lots of college educated voters, President’s focus is really got to be not making places like Southern California and the Philly this a referendum on his own administration, suburbs, Detroit, Richmond, Houston, Dallas, but engaging Biden in making this a clear those areas.