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Taliban Fragmentation FACT, FICTION, and FUTURE by Andrew Watkins
PEACEWORKS Taliban Fragmentation FACT, FICTION, AND FUTURE By Andrew Watkins NO. 160 | MARCH 2020 Making Peace Possible NO. 160 | MARCH 2020 ABOUT THE REPORT This report examines the phenomenon of insurgent fragmentation within Afghanistan’s Tali- ban and implications for the Afghan peace process. This study, which the author undertook PEACE PROCESSES as an independent researcher supported by the Asia Center at the US Institute of Peace, is based on a survey of the academic literature on insurgency, civil war, and negotiated peace, as well as on interviews the author conducted in Afghanistan in 2019 and 2020. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andrew Watkins has worked in more than ten provinces of Afghanistan, most recently as a political affairs officer with the United Nations. He has also worked as an indepen- dent researcher, a conflict analyst and adviser to the humanitarian community, and a liaison based with Afghan security forces. Cover photo: A soldier walks among a group of alleged Taliban fighters at a National Directorate of Security facility in Faizabad in September 2019. The status of prisoners will be a critical issue in future negotiations with the Taliban. (Photo by Jim Huylebroek/New York Times) The views expressed in this report are those of the author alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace. An online edition of this and related reports can be found on our website (www.usip.org), together with additional information on the subject. © 2020 by the United States Institute of Peace United States Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20037 Phone: 202.457.1700 Fax: 202.429.6063 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.usip.org Peaceworks No. -
Security Force Assistance in Afghanistan Identifying Lessons for Future Efforts
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Arroyo Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Security Force Assistance in Afghanistan Identifying Lessons for Future Efforts Terrence K. Kelly, Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker ARROYO CENTER The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. -
James Astill He Humdullah Mohib
IFE MEDIA & TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY RROUNDTABLEOUNDTABLE DINNER MARCH 8, 2018 | 7:00PM AFGHAN RESIDENCE SPECIAL GUEST JAMES ASTILL Washington correspondent | Washington D.C., United States James Astill is The Economist’s Washington correspondent. Previous to this, he was Political Editor and Bagehot columnist based in London from 2012. He joined The Economist as International Security Editor in 2004. He had previously filed dispatches from Afghanistan, Pakistan and many African countries, while also working for the Guardian. In 2007 he moved to Delhi to be the South Asia Correspondent, writing on all the countries of the Indian sub-continent. He has won several awards, including the Gerald Ford prize for his coverage of US security and the Grantham prize for a special report on the world’s forests. Mr Astill has also written special reports on India, on Pakistan and the Arctic. He returned to London in 2011 to take up the role of Energy and Environment Editor before his current appointment. DINNER HOST H.E. HUMDULLAH MOHIB Ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States Before being appointed Ambassador to the United States, Dr. Hamdullah Mohib served as Deputy Chief of Staff to H.E. The President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The role included oversight of the spokesperson’s office, the office of correspondence and diplomatic communications, protocol office, petitions office, and the Presidential secretariat. During his tenure at the Presidential Palace, his role involved liaison with governmental counterparts and drafting of bilateral and multilateral agreements. Dr. Mohib also engaged in the substantive preparation and implementation of official presidential visits to Azerbaijan, Belgium, China, Germany, India, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and the United States as part of the administration’s strategy for geopolitical and economic integration. -
What Are the Four Scenarios for the New Afghan Government Under Taliban? Publish Date: 01/09/2021
Artical Name : Four Scenarios Artical Subject : What are the Four Scenarios for the New Afghan Government Under Taliban? Publish Date: 01/09/2021 Auther Name: Future for Advanced Research and Studies Subject : After the Taliban took over the Afghan capital of Kabul on August 15, 2021, and former president Ashraf Ghani fled the country, Hamid Karzai -who led the first Afghan government after the Taliban was ousted in 2001 and served as president until 2014- announced that he was forming a three-person ³coordination council´to secure a peaceful transition of power. The other two members of the council are Abdullah Abdullah, the former vice president and head of the government¶s peace delegation, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the most notorious warlord who bombed Kabul during the Afghan civil war, which lasted from 1992 to 1996. Conceptual Outline of the Taliban¶s Rule Information derived from statements made by former officials affiliated with the Taliban is being circulated now about the form of the militant group¶s new government, the outline of which can be presented as follows: <!--[if !supportLists]-->1- Establishing an Islamic Emirate:The Taliban¶s reiteration that it is planning to establish an Islamic emirate is not new and is only natural, given that the group insisted on this demand during negotiations in Qatar with the former Afghan government. Despite this, today¶s Taliban seeks to emphasize that it is different from the Taliban that ruled Afghanistan two decades ago. It says it is now more open to, and seeks international recognition. That is why it is expected to present a model of a moderate Islamic emirate. -
Lead Inspector General for Operation Freedom's Sentinel April 1, 2021
OFS REPORT TO CONGRESS FRONT MATTER OPERATION FREEDOM’S SENTINEL LEAD INSPECTOR GENERAL REPORT TO THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS APRIL 1, 2021–JUNE 30, 2021 FRONT MATTER ABOUT THIS REPORT A 2013 amendment to the Inspector General Act established the Lead Inspector General (Lead IG) framework for oversight of overseas contingency operations and requires that the Lead IG submit quarterly reports to Congress on each active operation. The Chair of the Council of Inspectors General for Integrity and Efficiency designated the DoD Inspector General (IG) as the Lead IG for Operation Freedom’s Sentinel (OFS). The DoS IG is the Associate IG for the operation. The USAID IG participates in oversight of the operation. The Offices of Inspector General (OIG) of the DoD, the DoS, and USAID are referred to in this report as the Lead IG agencies. Other partner agencies also contribute to oversight of OFS. The Lead IG agencies collectively carry out the Lead IG statutory responsibilities to: • Develop a joint strategic plan to conduct comprehensive oversight of the operation. • Ensure independent and effective oversight of programs and operations of the U.S. Government in support of the operation through either joint or individual audits, inspections, investigations, and evaluations. • Report quarterly to Congress and the public on the operation and activities of the Lead IG agencies. METHODOLOGY To produce this quarterly report, the Lead IG agencies submit requests for information to the DoD, the DoS, USAID, and other Federal agencies about OFS and related programs. The Lead IG agencies also gather data and information from other sources, including official documents, congressional testimony, policy research organizations, press conferences, think tanks, and media reports. -
POLITICAL UPDATE Abdul Wardak and Bismillah Khan Mohammadi
Mara Tchalakov POLITICAL UPDATE August 16, 2012 ABDUL WARDAK AND BISMILLAH KHAN MOHAMMADI: UNPACKING AFGHANISTAN’S MINISTERIAL SHAKE-UP n an unprecedented single session of Parliament on August 4th, the Lower House dismissed the Afghan Idefense and interior ministers, Abdul Rahim Wardak and Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, following successive no-confidence votes. After weeks of alleged rocket attacks by Pakistani security forces in the border provinces, Parliament summoned the two ministers to appear before the assembly and submit to questioning over rising insecurity in the country. The heated session that resulted in their impeachment spanned the members’ concerns over rocket attacks from across the Durand Line, allegations of corruption and nepotism within the Defense and Interior Ministries, and targeted assassinations of high-profile figures across the country. The Presidential Palace was quick to announce in the wake again be able to curry favor with key allies across all major of Parliament’s decision that the two ministers would be ethnic camps and thereby encourage their dependence on asked to remain in an acting capacity until their successor(s) him. Rumors of behind-the-scenes Palace lobbying for are named; former Defense Minister Wardak nonetheless the impeachments were making the rounds even before immediately resigned following his ouster. With transition the parliamentary session began.3 The characteristics that underway, the dismissal of two such vital Cabinet posts has made both ministers such valuable allies for the President— left the international community anxiously speculating the their clout, popularity with Western interlocutors, and, in move’s impact on stability and governance in the country. -
Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS)
Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) Herat Security Dialogue-VIII "Settlement of Afghanistan Conflict: Opportunities and Obstacles” 18-19 October 2019-Herat Conference Report www.aiss.af AISS-HSD-08-2019 Contents About AISS ......................................................................................................................................... 1 A Short Introduction to the Herat Security Dialogue Series .................................................. 3 Concept Note ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Opening session ................................................................................................................................. 5 Panel I: An Inter-Elite Consensus: Nationalism & Governance ......................................... 17 Question and answer: ................................................................................................ 28 Panel II: Taliban 1 & 2: Have They Learned Their Lesson? ............................................... 29 Question and Answer: ............................................................................................... 35 Panel III: Economic and Social Transformation ..................................................................... 36 Question and Answer: ............................................................................................... 41 Panel IV: South Asia: A Paradigm Change? ........................................................................... -
What Happened to the Afghan Peace Talks? Written by Grant Farr
What Happened to the Afghan Peace Talks? Written by Grant Farr This PDF is auto-generated for reference only. As such, it may contain some conversion errors and/or missing information. For all formal use please refer to the official version on the website, as linked below. What Happened to the Afghan Peace Talks? https://www.e-ir.info/2021/02/24/what-happened-to-the-afghan-peace-talks/ GRANT FARR, FEB 24 2021 The peace talks between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban were set to resume in Doha, Qatar on January 6, 2021. Yet, to date, the talks have not restarted, except for minor meetings of staff over issues of protocol. The failure to restart the talks is in part because both sides are waiting to see what the Biden administration is going to do, especially whether or not the United States will abide by the agreement the Trump administration struck with the Taliban in February of 2020. This agreement called, among other things, for the withdrawal of all United States troops from Afghanistan by May 2021. In the meantime, the violence in Afghanistan continues unabated, with the killing of politicians, journalists, peace workers, and university students. The government of Ashraf Ghani seems unable, or unwilling, to stop this carnage as his government faces increasing pressure to form an interim government. All of this is taking place while the Covid-19 virus continues to ravage this poor country. What will Biden do? It had been expected that the Biden administration would be slow getting around to Afghanistan, given so many other pressing issues in the world. -
AT-Mar-28-2019.Pdf
Eye on the News [email protected] Truthful, Factual and Unbiased Vol:XI Issue No:235 Price: Afs.20 www.afghanistantimes.af www.facebook.com/ afghanistantimes www.twitter.com/ afghanistantimes THURSDAY . MARCH 28. 2019 -Hamal 08, 1398 HS AT News Report KABUL: Afghans through social AT News Report media have strongly condemned summary execution of a man by alleged Taliban fighters, after the KABUL: Afghanistan’s High video of the violent act went viral Peace Council says it welcomes on social media on Wednesday. the new round of the US special The short video published on envoy for Afghan peace Zalmay Facebook page showing alleged Khalilzad to Europe and Asia, Taliban fighters shooting a man, calling it effective to gain a apparently in his 40s, after a short comprehensive peace. conversation. The man who is Khalilzad started visits from looking to be not in good health March 25 during which he is condition, having his head scheduled to go to the United bandaged, answers few questions Kingdom, Belgium, Pakistan, of the shooters before he was Uzbekistan, Jordan and Qatar several times shot in his chest and until April 10, according to the other parts of the body. The exact United States’ state department. location and time of the shooting Khalilzad will discuss Afghan the sixth round of negotiations is still unclear. Although,... peace process with the leaders with Taliban representatives... of these countries, prior to begin AT News Report of 92 cases of violence including 2019), a deadliest year for Afghan concerns on the safety and 20 fatal cases against journalists media. -
Administration of Joseph R. Biden, Jr., 2021 Checklist of White House Press Releases August 13, 2021 January 20 January 21 Janua
Administration of Joseph R. Biden, Jr., 2021 Checklist of White House Press Releases September 10, 2021 The following list contains releases of the office of the Press Secretary that are neither printed items nor covered by entries in the Digest of Other White House Announcements. January 20 Transcript of a press briefing by Press Secretary Jennifer R. Psaki Statement by the Press Secretary: President Joe Biden Announces Acting Federal Agency Leadership Statement by the Press Secretary: Pausing Federal Student Loan Payments Text of a memorandum from Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff Ronald A. Klain to the heads of executive departments and agencies on a regulatory freeze pending review Fact sheet: President-elect Biden's Day One Executive Actions Deliver Relief for Families Across America Amid Converging Crises Fact sheet: List of Agency Actions for Review Fact sheet: President Biden Sends Immigration Bill to Congress as Part of His Commitment To Modernize Our Immigration System Advance text of the President's Inaugural Address January 21 Transcript of a press briefing by Press Secretary Jennifer R. Psaki January 22 Transcript of a press briefing by Press Secretary Jennifer R. Psaki and National Economic Director Brian C. Deese Statement by the Press Secretary: Talking Points: January 22 Executive Orders—Economic Relief Statement by the Press Secretary announcing that the President signed H.R. 335 Statement by National Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne on National Security Adviser Jacob J. Sullivan's call with National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib of Afghanistan Statement by National Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne on National Security Adviser Jacob J. -
Afghan Reconciliation
Quote of the Day Work Success is no accident. It is hard www.thedailyafghanistan.com work, perseverance, learning, studying, Email: [email protected] sacrifice and most of all, love of what you Phone: 0093 (799) 005019/777-005019 are doing or learning to do. Add: In front of Habibia High School, Pele District 3, Kabul, Afghansitan Volume No. 4129 Wednesday March 20, 2019 Hoot 29, 1397 www.outlookafghanistan.net Price: 20/-Afs MoU Signed on $631m Hydropower Afghan Reconciliation Dam in Badakhshan to Promote Economic Prosperity: Khalilzad Pakistan and British Ambassadors to the United States (US) on Tuesday met with US Special Representative for Afghan Peace Process Zalmay Khalilzad in KABUL - A Memorandum of Understanding President Ghani Washington and discussed matters related to Afghan peace process. (MoU) was signed on Tuesday at the Presidential Palace on power supply to northeastern Badakh- Briefed on Planned shan province and construction of a hydroelectric dam there at a cost of $631 million. Security Operations A statement from the Presidential Palace received KABUL - President Ashraf Gha- by Pajhwok Afghan News said the MoU was ni and top security officials on signed between acting energy and water minister Tuesday held discussions on up- Mohammad Gul Khulami and Da Afghanistan coming counterinsurgency op- Breshna Sherkat (DABS) head Eng. Amanullah erations and the overall security Ghalib and representative of the Aga Khan Devel- situation in the country. opment Network (AKDN). National Security Advisor (NSA) It said the MoU was aimed at providing electricity Hamdullah Mohib, Interior Min- to Badakhshan residents, a project that would cost ister Masood Andrabi, Minister $631 million donated by AKDN. -
Negotiating Team Likely to Depart for Doha on Saturday
Quote of the Day Strength www.outlookafghanistan.net ” facebook.com/The.Daily.Outlook.Afghanistan Strength and” growth come only through Email: [email protected] continuous effort and struggle. Phone: 0093 (799) 005019/777-005019 Add: In front of Habibia High School, Napoleon Hill District 3, Kabul, Afghanistan Volume No. 4466 Saturday September 05, 2020 Sonbola 15, 1399 www.outlookafghanistan.net Price: 20/-Afs UN Envoy Calls for ‘Humanitarian Ceasefire’ Ahead of Doha Talks Deborah Lyons, the UN Secretary- General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, on Thursday spoke dur- ing a UN Security Council Open VTC (videoconference) and called for a hu- manitarian ceasefire. The conference was held as the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban prepare to begin talks in Doha this week aimed at ending the deadly conflict that has gripped the nation for the past two decades. Lyons highlighted urgent issues relat- ed to peace, human rights, and the hu- manitarian situation, as well as other pressing issues, stating that a humani- tarian ceasefire was crucial to ensure long last, a political settlement to the that relief efforts can be conducted. conflict. This is truly a historic mo- “I want to emphasize again the impor- ment,” said Lyons. “The coming days tance of the humanitarian ceasefire. will hopefully bring the formal launch This is a win-win for both parties to the of intra-Afghan negotiations.” peace talks and it is clearly a win for She stated that solutions will not be the Afghan people. We all need to be found on the battlefield and Afghans raising our voices to focus on the need need to talk to each other.