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The Population Dynamics of Nepal

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The Population Dynamics of Nepal Papers of the East-West Population Institute No. 78 The population dynamics of Nepal Judith Banister and Shyam Thapa Center Hawaii PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE, published about eight times a year, facilitate early dissemination of research findings and state-of-the-art es• says on the demography of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. Annual sub• scription rate, $12. NOTE TO CONTRIBUTORS: The Population Institute considers unsolicited as well as commissioned manuscripts for the Paper Series. Appropriate topics are popu• lation estimation and analysis, causes and consequences of demographic behavior, urbanization and population distribution, and population policies and programs. All manuscripts are reviewed. In selecting manuscripts for publication, the Insti• tute considers quality of scholarship and usefulness to public officials and other professionals in the field of population; it also seeks contributions reflecting di• verse cultural and disciplinary perspectives on population. The series can accom• modate articles not necessarily suited for journals because of unusual length or treatment of subject. All copy must be typed double-spaced. For additional in• formation on manuscript preparation, write to the Publications Officer, East-West Population Institute. OTHER SERIAL PUBLICATIONS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE: Working Papers are circulated for comment and to inform interested colleagues about work in progress at the East-West Population Institute. They are intended to complement evidence of completed work as reflected in Papers of the East- West Population Institute and the Reprint Series. $2 per copy. Reprint Series brings selected articles originating from Institute research but pub• lished elsewhere to the attention of population specialists who might not other• wise see them. Single copies available upon request. Asian and Pacific Census Forum is a quarterly periodical reporting on census, vital registration, and population survey activities in Asia and the Pacific. The Forum contains technical articles on a range of topics related to demographic measurement, and reviews of new publications in the field. Issued in August, November, February, and May. Annual subscription rate, $5. Serial publications except Working Papers are available without charge to libraries serving population specialists and to professionals and scholars in the field of population. Requests describing the nature of the research or program and the intended use of the publications should be addressed to the Publications Office of the Institute. Acting Director Keith E. Adamson East-West Population Institute Publications Officer Sandra E. Ward East-West Center Editor Robert L. Hearn 1777 East-West Road Production Specialist Lois M. Bender Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 Cartographer Clyde Kanehiro The population dynamics of Nepal Judith Banister and Shyam Thapa Number 78 . December 1981 PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE JUDITH BANISTER, formerly a postdoctoral Research Fellow at the East-West Population Institute, is now a Demographer in the Foreign Demographic Analysis Division of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. SHYAM THAPA is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology and the Population Studies and Training Center at Brown University. The authors' names are listed in alphabetical order to indicate their equal contri• butions to this paper. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Banister, Judith. The population dynamics of Nepal. (Papers of the East-West Population Institute ; no. 78) Bibliography: p. 1. Nepal-Population. I. Thapa, Shyam, 1949- II. Title. III. Series. HB3636.9.A3B36 304.6'09549'6 81-19444 AACR2 CONTENTS Acknowledgments vii Abstract 1 Introduction 2 Sources of information on Nepal's population Age reporting and age structure 16 Population growth and agricultural production Health, nutrition, and mortality 30 Nuptiality 43 Fertility 49 Family planning attitudes and prevalence 60 Migration and urbanization 6 7 Population and environment 87 Future population prospects 94 Glossary of technical terms 105 References 777 V TABLES, MAPS, AND FIGURES Tables 1 Index of age preference for Nepal by sex: 1971 census and 1976 NFS House• hold Survey 19 2 Recorded and corrected age distributions (in percentages) of the male, female, and total population: Nepal, 1976 22 3 Census totals and implied population growth rates: Nepal, 1911—76 24 4 Percentage distribution of population, land area, and cultivated land area, and density per square kilometer, by terrain: Nepal, 1971 26 5 Number and percentage distribution of hospitals and hospital beds in Nepal: June 1971 35 6 Mortality estimates for Nepal, from various sources 39 7 Infant mortality rates for births classified by age of mother: Nepal, 1970-74 41 8 Infant mortality rates by terrain: Nepal, 1960—74 41 9 Percentages of males and females ever formally married: Nepal, 1952—76 44 10 Percentages of NFS women married before age 25 who had first birth during first five years of marriage: NFS, 1976 47 11 Reported number of children ever born per woman: 1961 and 1971 censuses and 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey 50 12 Mean number of children ever born per woman, by terrain: 1976 Nepal Fer• tility Survey 53 13 Age-specific fertility rates: Nepal, 1961-75 54 14 Age-specific fertility rates by terrain: Nepal, 1961-75 56 15 Estimates of crude birth rate (CBR) based on the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey: Nepal, mid-1970s 59 16 Percentage distribution of all ever married women according to pattern of contraceptive use by current age: Nepal, 1976 65 17 Lifetime internal migration: Nepal, 1961 71 18 Lifetime internal migration: Nepal, 1971 72 19 Lifetime internal migration of native-born population, by sex: Nepal, 1971 74 20 Distribution and growth of urban areas: Nepal, 1961-71 85 vi 21 Three projections of the age structure of Nepal: 1976-2026 98 22 Results of alternate population projections: Nepal, 1976—2030 99 Maps 1 The location of Nepal 3 2 The terrains and development regions of Nepal 5 3 Lifetime internal migration streams: Nepal, 1971 73 4 Urban areas of Nepal: 1971 census 84 Figures 1 Single-year age distribution of the total population: Nepal, 1976 NFS 18 2 Recorded age distribution of males and females in five-year age groups: Nepal, 1976 20 3 Age distribution of males and females, corrected for age misreporting by the Feeney method: Nepal, 1976 21 4 Age-sex pyramid of the population of Nepal, 1976 23 5 Recorded population growth trends: Nepal census years 1911—76 25 6 Annual total and per capita agricultural production: Nepal, 1966—77 28 7 Cumulative fertility rates up to age 35 in single years: Nepal, 1961 -75 55 8 Age-specific fertility rates by terrain: Nepal, 1971-75 57 9 Three projections of the population size of Nepal: 1976-2026 102 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We were both at the East-West Population Institute when we prepared the first and final drafts of this paper. We are grateful to Dr. Lee-Jay Cho, who made this joint endeavor possible and provided support for our work, and to Dr. Robert D. Retherford for facilitating the com• pletion of the paper. Thanks are due to the Nepal Family Planning/Maternal and Child Health (FP/MCH) Project, especially to Dr. Badri R. Pande for per• mission to use the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey data. We are also in• debted to the World Fertility Survey headquarters in London, espe• cially to Drs. Iqbal Allam, V.C. Chidambaram, and John G. Cleland, who supplied the data tapes and acted promptly on our requests at dif• ferent stages of the analysis. We are grateful to the Nepal National Commission on Population, in particular to Dr. Bedh Prakash Upreti for cooperation and assistance throughout the project. Many individuals contributed to the completion of this monograph. Drs. Linda Martin, John McQuiston, Dennis J. O'Donnell, Durga Ojha, Fred Reed, and Louise Williams, and the anonymous reviewers read an earlier draft and supplied us with many valuable comments and sug• gestions. Drs. Noreen Goldman, David E. Mutchler, James A. Palmore, Peter C. Smith, and Robert Worth also read portions of the draft and made many helpful comments. None are, however, responsible for the contents or possible remaining errors. We are grateful to Ms. Sandra Ward for her skill and care in editing the paper, to Ms. Lois Bender for typesetting the manuscript, and to Messrs. Gregory Chu and Clyde Kanehiro for their cartographic work. Last but not least, we greatly appreciate the assistance and consulta• tion for computer programming of Mss. Ruby Bussen, Gayle Uechi, and Victoria Ho, and the typing assistance of Mss. Kathleen Lau and Carol Walker. To all these persons and others who have contributed to the com• pletion of this monograph, including the Office of Population, U.S. Agency for International Development, which supported our research and the publication of this monograph under contract no. AID/DS/PE- C-0002, we express our deep appreciation. ABSTRACT Drawing upon censuses, survey reports, and other data sources including information from the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey, this paper analyzes the demographic situation of Nepal within the broader context of recent economic, agricultural, and environmental changes. Over the period examined, from the early 1950s to the late 1970s, fertility has remained high. Mortality, though still high, has be• gun a gradual decline, and a trend toward lower infant mortality is evident. A trend toward later marriage is also underway, although it has not been sufficient to depress fertility. Nepal has had a national family planning program for over a decade, but knowledge and use of modern contraceptive methods overall are still at a very low level. De• spite the government's efforts to provide family planning services throughout the country, inaccessibility of many rural villages remains an obstacle. Nepal's isolation and mountainous topography have impeded other forms of modernization as well. The country's predominantly agricul• tural economy has barely kept up with population increase in recent years.
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